Changes In Disposable Income Research Articles

Ekonomiczne determinanty popytu na ubezpieczenia na życie – ujęcie regionalne

Insurance has various functions in the economic and social spheres. Life insurance is a specific type of insurance, offered in the form of individual or group insurance. Research on insurance market at regional level is undertaken relatively rarely. The aim of the study presented in this paper is to identify economic factors determining the level of demand for individual and group life insurance on regional insurance markets. Dynamic econometric models for panel data (GMM estimator) with demand expressed in gross written premium per capita (life insurance density) have been used in the analysis. The research was carried out on the basis of data at voivodship level for the period of 2017–2021 from Statistics Poland and the Polish Financial Supervision Authority. The regression analysis demonstrated that an improving economic situation of the region and households’ growing disposable income positively affected demand for life insurance, while a poor situation on the labor market (indicated by the unemployment rate) had a reverse effect. Individual insurance demand responded stronger to changes in disposable income and the unemployment rate, whereas group insurance demand was more sensitive to changes in the region's economic situation. The level of insurance consumption observed in a given period is determined by that observed in the previous period, which indicates the phenomena occurring on this market are of a relatively stable character.

An Analysis of the Income Elasticity of Education Expenditure of Urban Residents in Hubei Province

With the proposal of prioritizing education development and the first-time positioning of education, technology, and talent as top strategic priorities in China, the country and the people are paying more and more attention to education, and investment in education is increasing. This paper analyzes the per capita disposable income and household education expenditure of urban residents in Hubei Province from 2013 to 2020, calculates the elasticity of household education expenditure to income and its changing trend, and analyzes the sensitivity of changes in household education expenditure to changes in disposable income. It is found that household education expenditure of urban residents is relatively sensitive to changes in disposable income. Based on the actual situation of education investment in Hubei Province. This paper proposes suggestions for promoting rational consumption of education among urban residents in Hubei Province, in order to provide reference for the formulation of relevant education policies.

Negative effects of long parental leave on maternal health: Evidence from a substantial policy change in Austria

I study the effect of parental leave duration on maternal health in the short- to medium-run leveraging variation in parental leave duration induced by an Austrian policy reform in the year 2000. Using rich administrative data and a regression discontinuity framework, I find that long parental leave of 2.5 years instead of 1.5 years deteriorates maternal health. Worse mental health mainly drives this effect. Alternative channels such as differential fertility, long-term employment effects, a change in disposable income or alternative mode of childcare are unlikely to be of main importance. There is substantial heterogeneity with longer leave spells being less harmful for mothers with unhealthy babies proxied by low birth weight.

Relationship Relationship Between Income and Food Quality of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The purpose of the article is to study the relationship between the income level and the quality of nutrition of the population of the republic, per capita consumption of basic foodstuffs by population groups with different disposable incomes, the main problems, and ways to solve them. The main source of information was the official data of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The theoretical basis of the research was the works of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of the level and quality of life, materials of the FAO. The study was conducted using general scientific methods of cognition, as well as special methods of economic and statistical analysis - grouping, graphical research method, ranking of the dynamic series, calculated indicators of the analysis of dynamic series. The scientific novelty of the study is to assess the impact of changes in disposable income on the concentration and differentiation of income of the population, food consumption in different income groups of the population of the republic. The authors analyzed the main modern concepts of measuring the standard of living and selected the most acceptable information from the point of view of accessibility, which was the basis of the study. The results of the study can be used in the formation of medium- and long-term programs to increase the income and quality of nutrition of the population, as well as a basis for further research in this direction.

IMPACT OF MINE CLOSURE ON THE BARITES MINING COMMUNITIES IN NASARAWA STATE: A QUALITATIVE RESPONES APPROARCH

This study attempts an evaluation of the impacts of mine closure on the Barites mining communities in Nasarawa state. Therefore, it uses descriptive and inferential approach; it however employed changes in disposable income, change in aggregate demand, change in population, changes in economic activities, and hectare of land degraded as the basis for evaluation of the social and economic implication of mine closure on the livelihood of the Barites mining communities in the state, Data were generated from primary source and were analyzed using Logit regression technique. The study established that closure of Barites mining activities in the state has slowed down economic activities as well as the livelihood capabilities of the mining communities such that, their chances of recovery is very slim. The study posits that closure of mining activities have brought some implications in the area of employment opportunities, decrease in disposable income and wealth creation. It however dislocates the social values of the inhabitants leading to high rate of crime, and alarming percentage of teenage pregnancy, HIV AIDS and broken marriages. The study suggests that both the mining companies and the government should mitigate these implications by providing the mining communities with the essential threshold of life that may re-engineer their livelihood to the threshold of their capabilities. Apart from this, the closure of mines should follow a gradual and adaptive processes, as well as legal procedure with adequate consultation with the inhabitance taken into account that the mine is their chief source of livelihood.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope

We investigate the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption using administrative data on the universe of households in Norway. On the basis of identified monetary policy shocks, we estimate the dynamic responses of consumption, income, and saving along the liquid asset distribution of households. For low-liquidity but also for high-liquidity households, changes in disposable income are associated with a sizable consumption reaction. The impact consumption response is closely linked to interest rate exposure, which is negative at the bottom but positive at the top of the distribution. Indirect effects of monetary policy gradually build up and eventually outweigh the direct effects.

ОЦІНЮВАННЯ ВЗАЄМОЗВ’ЯЗКІВ МІЖ РІВНЕМ ЖИТТЯ НАСЕЛЕННЯ, СОЦІАЛЬНО-ЕКОНОМІЧНИМИ І ДЕМОГРАФІЧНИМИ ПРОЦЕСАМИ В УКРАЇНІ

Анотація. Метою дослідження є визначення кількісного взаємозв’язку між показниками економічного зростання, соціального прогресу, демографічних змін та рівня життя населення. Для встановлення взаємозв’язку між соціальними і економічними процесами була проведена вибірка показників для їх оцінки, з використанням кореляційно-регресійного аналізу визначена залежність між ними. В сукупності проаналізовано динаміку та щільність зв’язків між 72 соціально-економічними і демографічними показниками на основі офіційних статистичних даних за 17 років. В результаті дослідження виявлений тісний зв’язок тривалості життя населення, приросту його чисельності з показниками економічного розвитку і добробуту, зокрема, між показником ВВП у розрахунку на одну особу і сумарним коефіцієнтом народжуваності, середнім віком населення, квінтильним коефіцієнтом фондів, що характеризує ступінь диференціації доходів населення. Визначені також тісні взаємозв’язки між середнім віком, «грошовими» показниками добробуту (середнім розміром призначеної пенсії, середньомісячною заробітною платою, наявним доходом у розрахунку на одну особу) та споживання (обсягом реалізованої промислової продукції, оборотом роздрібної торгівлі). Виявлено, що зміна наявних доходів у розрахунку на одну особу тісно пов’язана з низкою демографічних показників, таких як чисельність населення, природний приріст (скорочення) населення, середній вік населення. У ході дослідження встановлено, що зростання валового внутрішнього продукту не залежить напряму від чисельності населення і чисельності зайнятих в економіці; між показниками виявлених злочинів і кількістю вишів та кількістю студентів у цих закладах існує помірна залежність, а між показниками рівня безробіття і злочинності з соціально-економічними показниками відсутній щільний зв’язок, хоча він мав би бути. Ключові слова: взаємозв’язок, коефіцієнт кореляції, показники, рівень життя, соціальний прогрес, економічне зростання, демографічні зміни, оцінювання. Формул: 0; рис.: 1; табл.: 4; бібл.: 16.

The Transmission of Monetary Policy under the Microscope

We investigate the transmission of monetary policy to household consumption using administrative data on the universe of households in Norway. Based on identified monetary policy shocks, we estimate the dynamic responses of consumption, income, and saving along the liquid asset distribution of households. For low-liquidity but also for high-liquidity households, changes in disposable income are associated with a sizable consumption reaction. The impact consumption response is closely linked to interest rate exposure, which is negative at the bottom but positive at the top of the distribution. Indirect effects of monetary policy gradually build up and eventually outweigh the direct effects.

The Excess Smoothness and Sensitivity of Consumption in the V4 Countries

This paper contributes to the debate on the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) and excess consumption smoothness and sensitivity in the context of conditions in the V4 countries. This paper also shows results contrary to the belief of the Permanent Income Hypothesis/Random Walk Hypothesis that the change in consumption is an innovation which is not predictable by lagged saving or lagged income change. The paper tests the implication of the Permanent Income Hypothesis/Random Walk Hypothesis, using quarterly aggregate data for 1995–2017 in the V4 countries. A vector autoregression for saving and changes in disposable income is used to generate a forecast of declines in disposable income. As a result, when income changes abruptly, the resulting change in consumption is much smoother and conversely, when changes in income are anticipated, consumption responds sensitively. The aggregate consumption is both excessively smooth relative to the new information causing consumers’ revision of previous expectations about current and future income, and excessively sensitive to lagged income growth.

The Impact of Urbanization and Industrialization on Energy Security: A Case Study of China

Currently, due to the recent unprecedented urbanization and industrialization, energy consumption in China is increasing at an enormous speed. However, this process should go hand in hand with sustainable energy development that is based on three interconnected dimensions: (i) energy security, (ii) energy affordability, and (iii) environmental sustainability. It becomes very obvious that an increase in energy efficiency leads to the increase in both energy security and environmental sustainability. Therefore, inadequate energy efficiency causes energy security and environmental sustainability issues, and thus negatively influences economic development of China (or any other country for that matter). This paper explores the intrinsic relationship among urbanization, industrialization, and energy security, as well as the influencing mechanisms of urbanization and industrialization on energy efficiency using a fixed effect model. The paper employs panel data from 30 provinces in mainland China collected in the time range from 2006 to 2015. Our results demonstrate that urbanization and industrialization can significantly improve energy efficiency. Although energy security level decreases considerably with the rise of energy consumption and population growth, the increase in urbanization and industrialization levels can increase energy security through energy efficiency improvements. Moreover, it appears that changes in disposable income and population structure do not alter the effects of industrialization and urbanization on energy security. We conclude that Chinese provinces with high and low urbanization levels should focus on technological innovation and increase industrial development and technological input, respectively. Local governments in China can formulate policies and regulations and promote urbanization according to local economic development and industrial and population structure. The paper also presents theoretical references and decision support that might help in developing local laws and regulations promoting energy efficiency during urbanization and industrialization.

The Stochastic Implications of Permanent Income Hypothesis for US Speculative Traders: Implications for Consumption-Based Asset Pricing

This paper examines the stochastic implications of permanent income hypothesis for speculative prices from a sample of economic data from 1967 to 2017 in the United States. One of the standard assumptions of the Consumption-Based Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM)—the time separability of utility—is relaxed in the model specification of Mankiw and Shapiro (1985) and finds that the expected change in earnings has no obvious connection with stock price changes for monthly and yearly data. This finding, while accepting the excess sensitivity of consumption to income, suggests that the past consumption—unconstrained by expected change in income of that period—influences the utility of future consumption. Disposable income and consumption expenditure are highly autoregressive and non-stationary for monthly, quarterly, and yearly time series. The hypothesis that disposable income follows a random walk is clearly rejected for three-time horizons and the consumption is excessively sensitive to income for monthly and yearly data. The rejection of income follows a random walk due to liquidity constraint for quarterly data. The results of impulse response functions question the OLS/AR type of (univariate) regressions used to test the randomness of disposable income and the excess sensitivity. Equity price changes are, however, found to be completely independent from disposable income for frequent observations of income, which suggests that the use of consumption as a variable in capital asset pricing is a subjective assessment. Furthermore, the empirical evidence shows that the equity price changes cannot be effectively forecasted by the predictable change in disposable income.

Changes in Income at Macro Level Predict Sex Ratio at Birth in OECD Countries.

The human sex ratio at birth (SRB) is approximately 107 boys for every 100 girls. SRB was rising until the World War II and has been declining slightly after the 1950s in several industrial countries. Recent studies have shown that SRB varies according to exposure to disasters and socioeconomic conditions. However, it remains unknown whether changes in SRB can be explained by observable macro-level socioeconomic variables across multiple years and countries. Here we show that changes in disposable income at the macro level positively predict SRB in OECD countries. A one standard deviation increase in the change of disposable income is associated with an increase of 1.03 male births per 1000 female births. The relationship is possibly nonlinear and driven by extreme changes. The association varies from country to country being particular strong in Estonia. This is the first evidence to show that economic and social conditions are connected to SRB across countries at the macro level. This calls for further research on the effects of societal conditions on general characteristics at birth.

Consumption tax revenue and personal income tax: analytical elasticities under non-standard tax structures

ABSTRACTThis article models the elasticity of consumption taxation faced with changes in disposable income. Its calculation makes clear the importance of the design of the personal income tax and of the changes caused to the consumption of taxpayers. The modelling is performed for both individual taxpayers and the population as a whole.

A Tax-Benefit Microsimulation Model for Italy: A Partial Evaluation of Fiscal Consolidation in the Period 2011-2014

This paper develops a tax-benefit microsimulation model for the Italian economy to evaluate the impact of fiscal policy measures on household income. The simulations are performed on a dataset obtained from the matching of IT-SILC 2011 with HBS 2010, SHIW 2010 and IT-SILC 2008 to integrate income variables with consumption, financial assets and the tax base of property tax. The model quantifies the impact (the so-called first round effects) on household income of a set of fiscal policies implemented in Italy in the period 2011-2014: the increase in the ordinary VAT rate, the reintroduction of the property tax on the main home, the increase in the earnings tax credit, the 80-euro tax credit for employees, the modification of the personal income tax base and finally the rise of the tax rate on yields of deposits. We assess also the effects of changes of regional income taxes, despite not being part, strictly speaking, of the consolidation package. As a whole, the simulated average change in disposable income is negative.

Tax design-tax evasion relationship in Serbia: New empirical approach to standard theoretical model

This paper provides evidence on the impact of the change in income tax rates and the degree of its progressivity on the scale of labour taxes evasion in Serbia, using the tax-benefit microsimulation model and econometric methods, on 2007 Living Standard Measurement Survey data. The empirical analysis is based on novel assumption that individual’s tax evasion decision depends on a change in disposable income, which is captured by the variation in their Effective Marginal Tax Rates (EMTR), rather than on a change in after-tax income. The results suggest that the elasticity of tax evasion to EMTR equals -0.3, confirming the Yitzhaki's theory, while the propensity to evade is decreasing in the level of wages and increasing in the level of self-employment income. The results also show that introduction of revenue-neutral, progressive taxation of labour income would lead to increase in labour tax evasion by 1 percentage point.

Regional impact of changes in disposable income on Spanish electricity demand: A spatial econometric analysis

This paper presents an empirical analysis of residential electricity demand considering the existence of spatial effects. This analysis has been performed using aggregate panel data at the province level for 46 Spanish provinces for the period from 2001 to 2010. For this purpose, we estimated a log–log demand equation using a spatial autoregressive model with autoregressive disturbances (SARAR). The purpose of this empirical analysis is to determine the influence of price, income, and spatial spillovers on residential electricity demand in Spain. We are particularly interested in analyzing the impact of household disposable income variation across provinces observed during the economic crisis period 2009–2010. The estimation results show relatively low income elasticity and an inelastic demand to prices. Furthermore, the results show the presence of spatial effects in Spanish residential electricity consumption.

War and famine, peace and light? The economic dynamics of conflict in Somalia 1993–2009

The literature on war economies argues that prolonged civil wars have an economic logic: certain groups may obtain material gains from committing acts of violence and hence resist peacebuilding efforts. Objective tests of these predictions have so far been limited, as corruption and conflict prevent the collection of reliable economic data on the ground. Remote sensing and Geographic Information Science techniques enable us to overcome these problems of terrestrial data collection. Electricity consumption manifested as night-time light emissions recorded in satellite images is proposed as a proxy for changes in disposable income in Somalia’s cities. The nightlight images provide striking illustrations of economic decline and recovery and clearly show the contrast between the stable regions of Northern Somalia and the chaos and anarchy of Southern Somalia. Based on geospatial analyses of settlement patterns in Somali cities, we argue that specific metrics of light output can be used to proxy for the incomes of different social groups. We use geo-coded conflict event data to analyze the economic impact of conflict on local light output and therefore incomes. We find a significant peace dividend for poorer households located at the margins of cities, which benefit both from local stability and more peaceful conditions in the country as a whole. By contrast, the central business districts are relatively well insulated from the effects of local conflict, and violence in Mogadishu has positive effects on light output from cities where humanitarian aid agencies are located. Future peace initiatives need to confront these economic incentives for continued conflict and state failure in Somalia.

Simulations at Czech poultry market

This paper defines the possible scenarios of the development of the poultry market in the Czech Republic, in view of the trends in production, consumption and foreign trade. The individual scenarios are based upon the forecasts of selected factors that have a substantial impact on the poultry market and whose changes can be expected in the subsequent years with great likelihood. The article sets out and addresses various scenarios for the period of 2012–2014. The scenarios are based upon the partial equilibrium model of the poultry market, which has been derived on the basis of time series and panel data within the years 1995–2009. The conducted analysis clearly shows that changes in the prices of agricultural producers will have an effect on changes in the production of poultry meat, an increase in VAT through consumer prices will impact the rate of domestic consumption, as well as changes in disposable income. Similarly, a change in the exchange rate will have an effect on the amount of poultry imported into the Czech Republic.

Consumption, Credit, and Macroeconomic Policies: Theory and Evidence from the United States

The paper examines determinants of private consumption in the USA. The empirical model includes disposable income, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the interest rate, and the real effective exchange rate. Anticipated movements in these determinants are likely to affect planned consumption, while unanticipated changes determine cyclical consumption. Fluctuations in private consumption are mostly cyclical with respect to changes in disposable income and the consumers’ sentiment index. In contrast, an increase in the interest rate decreases both planned and cyclical consumption. Fiscal policy has a direct negative effect on cyclical consumption, which is not dependent on the interest rate. Monetary growth, in contrast, increases liquidity to finance both planned and cyclical private consumption.

Consumption Smoothing After the Final Mortgage Payment: Testing the Magnitude Hypothesis

We examine whether the magnitude of an anticipated income change impacts consumption smoothing (i.e. the magnitude hypothesis). Even though this hypothesis has been discussed for almost 50 years, we are one of the first to provide formal statistical evidence to support it. We consider the natural experiment of an individual’s final mortgage payment, and examine how it impacts credit card consumption. The final mortgage payment is an anticipated change in disposable income, thus theory predicts that consumption should not respond on that date. Our treatment group consists of individuals who make a final mortgage payment and our control group consists of individuals who continue to make monthly mortgage payments. We can identify causality as running from the final mortgage payment to credit card consumption because the dates of final mortgage payments are distributed across individuals over time. We find that the magnitude of final mortgage payments does impact the response of credit card consumption.