Crude Oil Price Changes Research Articles

COVID-19 salgınında döneminde petrol fiyatı dalgalanmalarının Borsa İstanbul havayolu şirket hisse getirilerine bulaşma etkisi: Bir VAR-VECH-TARCH uygulaması

The impact of crude oil on the industries is different based on the dependency of the related business line. Thus, airlines are usually sensitive to the changes in crude oil price changes since is composes a considerable proportion of the operational costs. In our study, the return spillover effect is determined by the mean equation set as vector autoregressive model (VAR model) while the volatility spillover effect between crude oil price and the stock price of airlines companies is determined via the variance equation set as the VECH-TARCH model to catch the asymmetric news impact as well. According to the model results the volatility spillover effect between crude oil price and airlines’ stock price is more significant compared to the return spillover effect. In the short term the volatility spillover effect between crude oil price and Turkish Airlines stock price is more significant compared to Pegasus Airlines (PGSUS) and transportation index. Secondly, in the long run the volatility spillover effect between crude oil prices and all three assets are strongly significant. Third, there is no asymmetric news impact between crude oil prices and Pegasus Airlines stocks and transportation index. However, asymmetry exists for Turkish Airlines stocks. Good news from crude oil markets to Turkish Airlines increase the volatility as well.

Asymmetric Dependence between Oil Prices and Maritime Freight Rates: A Time-Varying Copula Approach

Changes in crude oil price affect the shipping freight market via three different channels. This study explores the dependence structure between oil prices and maritime freight rates to identify the effective channel. Therefore, it investigates the relationship between oil prices and three major maritime freight rates; the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI), and the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI). We employ the decomposition method, not studied in the existing literature, and the copula approach which can identify the time-varying effects and asymmetry in the tail dependence structure between oil prices and freight rates. The main results of this analysis are as follows: the decomposed components display different conditional dependence patterns, and asymmetry is revealed in the upper and lower tail dependence. In the long-run, we find more dependence in extreme periods like the financial crises. In short-run fluctuations, we find the dependence increases in an economic boom. The implications of the results suggest that dependence can vary over time and may change depending on extreme events, implying that the complementary strategies should be different the long-run and short-run.

Oil price risk and the cross‐section of stock returns in Turkey

AbstractThis paper tests whether the oil price risk influence the cross‐section of stock returns in a net oil importing country even after controlling for standard risk factors to stock returns. The paper also tests the relative contribution of the oil price risk to the performance of factor‐based asset pricing models to explain the average returns. Using firm‐level data from Turkey, changes in monthly crude oil prices per barrel of oil is, respectively, added to the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), three‐factor (3F) model and five‐factor (5F) model and tested against the returns of portfolios constructed based on different firm‐specific fundamentals. The results indicate that the oil price risk factor extracts significant coefficients in the cross‐sectional regressions when conditioned against the returns even after controlling for the market and firm‐specific risk factors. But, the asset pricing summary statistics used to evaluate the relative contribution of the oil price risk suggest that it cannot improve the relative performance of the base asset pricing equations to explain the average stock returns. The results reveal the effectiveness of the factor models to capture the effect of the oil price risk on average returns. The traditional 3F equation offers the highest potential among the models tested.

REVISITING THE “PURE” OIL-EXCHANGE CO-MOVEMENT FROM A TIME-DOMAIN PERSPECTIVE

In this paper, we examine the differences between CNY and other major currencies in coherence and the lead–lag relationship across the different time horizons to clarify whether crude oil, monetary factors, or both drive the movement of exchange rates. We employ partial and multiple wavelet coherence analyses to examine oil-exchange co-movement by excluding the influence of Federal Reserve System (FED) monetary policy — namely, the stance and uncertainty of monetary policy — and the difference in domestic and foreign monetary policy rates. Overall, we find that monetary easing by the FED is a major factor driving the co-movement. Specifically, after excluding the possible effects of monetary policy factors, the movement of the Euro exhibits the strongest and the Japanese yen the weakest dependence on crude oil price changes, whereas the British pound shows a moderate dependence. By contrast, the CNY shows strong co-movement with the crude oil price only over the long term implying the low degree of integration with the global markets. Our empirical results provide meaningful information for investors and policymakers.

The role of crude oil prices in the movement of the Indonesian rupiah: a quantile ARDL approach

The linkages between oil prices and exchange rates have been researched considerably. However, studies to date typically assume symmetric responses of exchange rates to changes in crude oil prices and use a symmetric linear regression model when tackling the topic. Therefore, the new contribution of this article is to utilize the quantile autoregressive distributed lag approach newly developed by Cho et al. (J Econom 188:281–300, 2015) and investigate whether or not evidence of locational asymmetries exists between oil prices and the Indonesian rupiah (IDR). We detect that the relationship between oil prices and IDR is heterogeneous across different quantiles, thereby providing evidence of locational asymmetries in both the long- and short-run. We believe that this discovery has profound implications on empirical modeling of the oil price–exchange rate nexus and policy analysis.

Re-examining the real option characteristics of gold for gold mining companies

This paper re-examines the static and time-varying asymmetries in quantile-specific relationship between gold returns and gold mining companies' stock returns. In doing so, we use novel cross-quantilogram approach that is built on quantiles of both distributions and control for the effect of crude oil price changes, overall stock market movements, stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty. We find that the gold returns negatively predict the gold stock returns around the median quantile. Whereas the gold returns positively depend on the gold mining companies’ stock returns in the low and high quantiles. We therefore, support for an embedded real option in gold for gold mining companies which is time-varying and occurs in very short-run. This finding is useful for devising portfolio allocation and diversification strategies.

Pass through effects of oil price on food and non-food prices in Pakistan: A nonlinear ARDL approach

Petroleum products constitute major share of Pakistan's imports. A change in crude oil prices affects energy prices and thus manufacturing and transportation cost. All these factors result in influencing the prices of goods and services which ultimately affect the welfare level of masses. Keeping in view, the market structure at international and local level, present study examines the pass-through effect of crude oil prices on food and non-food prices in Pakistan using nonlinear and asymmetric autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model and causality tests for 1990Q3 to 2019Q4 period. Results show that oil prices effect both food and non-food inflation, but effect is more pronounced in non-food inflation. It is also found that the impact is asymmetric, that is, effect is positive and significant only when oil price increase. Results of this study confirm the role of market power in commodity prices in Pakistan and call for effective regulatory policies.

On the asymmetric effects of changes in crude oil prices on economic growth: New evidence from China's 31 provinces

AbstractAlthough previous literature has addressed an asymmetric response of economic growth to oil price movements in developed economies, less widely recognised is the possibility of such responses in developing economies. Thus, the primary thrust of the present article is to investigate the asymmetric effects of changes in crude oil prices on growth in a developing economy, particularly China. To examine this subject thoroughly, we first assume oil price symmetry and apply the method of the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) to China's 31 provinces. We discover that the price of crude oil has a significant effect on growth mostly in the short‐run. We then separate oil price hikes from oil price plunges and implement the method of the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) to reveal that the price of crude oil has indeed an important role in affecting growth across China's 31 provinces in both the short‐ and long‐run. Further, there is evidence that fluctuations in oil prices appear to have asymmetric effects on growth for some provinces, though not all, in the short‐ and long‐run.

How Oil Prices Drive Inflation in Turkish Economy: Two Different Channels

This study analyzes the impact of changes in oil prices on consumer inflation in Turkey. We compare the effects of the changes in crude oil and gasoline prices on the consumer prices. These effects differ symmetrically and asymmetrically for the period 2009:01-2020:04. For this purpose, inflationary effects are estimated using linear and non-linear ARDL models. According to the findings, changes in both oil and fuel prices have asymmetric effects on inflation in the short run. Both models explain the changes in consumer inflation with the increases in oil prices in the long run. The result indicates that the decreases in oil prices are not taken into account in pricing decisions.

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRUDE OIL PRICES AND MACRO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES: EVIDENCE FROM BRICS COUNTRIES

The article analyses the relationship between Crude oil Prices and Macro-economic variables in BRICS countries using Quarterly data from 31st March 1999 to 31st December 2019 and an Autoregressive Distributed lag model has been developed to study the long term relationship between Crude oil and Macro-economic variable. The study found out that the long term relationship exists between the variables. We have also identified that all the countries react differently to the fluctuations in Oil prices. But interestingly China and India share some commonalities in terms of reacting to the changes in Crude Oil prices. Additionaly we have also found that fluctuations in the Oil price effect Trade Openness in every country under study except Russia.Keywords: Crude Oil prices, Macro-economic variables, ARDL, Bound testJEL Classifications: C22, E40, E31, E50, Q43DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.9755

Oil prices, stock market returns, and volatility spillovers: evidence from Saudi Arabia

This work reinvestigates the interrelationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns in Saudi Arabia by taking into account volatility spillovers that are exemplified by second-moment effects. Using weekly data from 2001 to 2018 and time-varying causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests and taking into account structural breaks, we model each series as an APARCH process to capture any leverage effects in the volatility of returns. Empirical results suggest the existence of a bidirectional causality relationship between stock and oil performance series. While we fail to document significant spillover effects stemming from the stock market to the oil market, we detected substantial spillover effects running from crude oil price changes to stock market returns. We also find evidence in favor of the presence of risk spillovers between crude oil price and stock market. In this context, unexpected loses in the oil market can be predicted by using sudden past declines in the Saudi Arabian stock market and a substantial increase in the oil price seems to have significant predictive power for a rise in the stock market in the future. These results suggest that government policies must take into account risk spillover effects between markets and that investors are better off monitoring crude oil markets in portfolio allocation decisions.

Effects of International Crude Oil Prices on Energy Consumption in China

This study aims to test the effects of changes in international crude oil prices on changes in crude oil and hydropower use from 1965 to 2016. We suggest a cointegration relationship between the consumption of coal, crude oil, and hydropower and the real crude oil price. The real price is weakly exogenous for the long-run relationship and has impacted energy consumption accordingly. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of oil use is 0.460. Our estimate suggests a positive oil price–oil use relationship in China, which is dramatically different from many previous studies but is consistent with a few past studies. The growth in external oil prices may lead to a long-run increase in hydropower use in China, with a long-run price elasticity of 0.242. The long-run crude oil price elasticity of coal use is −0.930. Hence, increased oil and hydropower use could make up the energy supply–demand gap left over by the decreased coal use. Strictly planned domestic fuel prices and rapidly growing family incomes should diminish the negative effect of external oil prices on domestic crude oil demand. In the long run, given a strictly managed energy price, the growth in external oil prices is not likely to noticeably restrain the domestic oil demand or lead to a dramatic increase in coal use. We suggest that the large-scale development and utilization of hydropower may be inappropriate. Coal utilization policies must be reviewed. The appropriate increase in clean coal consumption could reduce the consumption of crude oil and hydropower; meanwhile, carbon emissions will not increase.

EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX: EVIDENCE THE GLOBAL TRADE WAR PHENOMENON

The development of investment in the Islamic capital market, especially the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) as a percentage, experienced significant development, and it is because the Islamic index uses Islamic principles and procedures. The phenomenon of the trade war between the United States and China has an impact on macro variable fluctuations, which can empirically influence the growth of the sharia index. For this reason, this study aims to analyze the impact of change due to the trade war sentiment. Macroeconomic variables used in this study are the USD / IDR exchange rate, the CNY / IDR exchange rate, inflation, Crude oil WTI, and ICP Crude oil. This study uses a vector autoregression analysis (VAR) technique. Stationarity test using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (ADF test) and the Philips-Perron Test. The analysis shows that there is an influence between changes in exchange rates and changes in crude oil prices on the return of the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) in the range of research data periods used.

Analysis of the influence of international benchmark oil price on China’s real exchange rate forecasting

The exchange rate forecasting plays an important role in the economic and financial fields. Oil price fluctuations have a great impact on the country’s economic activity. Based on the theory of exchange rate determination, this paper combines quantitative and qualitative research methods to study the impact of three major international benchmark crude oil price changes on the real effective exchange rate forecast of the RMB. In this paper, the correlation between the three international benchmark oil prices and the real exchange rate is discussed through the hybrid Copula function, and then the bivariate neural network model is constructed. Brent crude oil price having the greatest degree of correlation with China’s real exchange rate, the Kendall correlation coefficient and the Spearman correlation coefficient are 0.4327 and 0.5792. MAPE values of the three Brent variable models in the one-step prediction reached 0.54%, 0.51%, and 0.54%. The results of the experiments and discussions shows that the bivariate model has excellent forecasting performance, and indicates that the continuous fluctuations in oil prices have a great impact on the exchange rate, and that oil price information has provided effective help for China’s real exchange rate forecasting.

Do Crude Oil Price Changes Affect Economic Welfare? Empirical Evidence from Ghana

Abstract
 This paper sought to explore the impact of crude oil price changes on economic welfare in Ghana. The paper employed the Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique on an annual time series data spanning 1983 – 2017. The findings revealed that crude oil price changes have a negative and significant impact on economic welfare in the short and long run, albeit marginal. In terms of covariates, the findings revealed that trade openness and gross fixed capital formation have positive and significant impact whilst interest rate have negative impact on economic welfare in both the short and long run. Foreign direct investment had a positive effect, albeit insignificant. The paper recommends among others, the hedging of prices with respect to imported crude oil so as to manage the risks associated with crude oil price changes on economic welfare.
 
 Keywords: Economic Welfare; Crude Oil Prices Changes; Autoregressive Distributed Lag; Ghana

Key findings from the core North American scenarios in the EMF34 intermodel comparison

Within Canada, Mexico or the United States, policy-making organizations are evaluating energy markets and energy trade within their own borders often by ignoring how these countries’ energy systems are integrated with each other. These analytical gaps provided the main motivation for the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 34 study on North American energy integration and trade. This paper compares North American results from 17 models and discusses their policy motivation. Oil and natural gas production in the three major countries are modestly sensitive to crude oil and natural gas price changes, although these elasticities are below unity. Carbon taxes displace coal and some natural gas with renewables within all three power markets. Lower natural gas prices replace coal and some renewables with natural gas within electric generation. Higher intermittent renewable penetration in the power sector displaces coal and some natural gas. A key conclusion is that much remains to be done in integrating future analyses and in sharing and improving the quality and consistency of the underlying data.

What Matters for Consumer Sentiment? World Oil Price or Retail Gasoline Price?

This paper examines the impact of oil supply and demand shocks on gasoline prices and consumer sentiment in the Euro Area. Results reveal that aggregate consumer sentiment and its components deteriorate notably as a response to positive shocks to real gasoline prices. On the contrary, positive oil-specific demand shocks do not trigger a deterioration of consumer sentiment. In other words, consumer sentiment is affected primarily by unexpected changes in gasoline prices at the pump rather than unexpected changes in crude oil prices. The analysis is further refined to analyze the effects of these shocks to six sub-components of consumer sentiment.

Oil and pump prices: Testing their asymmetric relationship in a robust way

Abstract The aim of this study is to provide a novel method to assess whether retail fuel prices respond asymmetrically to changes in the international crude oil prices. To do so, we consider the whole supply chain, we use daily data and we depart from the current practice in the literature that focuses on prices. Rather, we consider the mark-ups of both the refineries and retailers. Hence, we show that we first need to assess whether the refineries' mark-up responds asymmetrically to the international crude oil prices and subsequently whether the retailers' mark-up shows an asymmetric behaviour relatively to changes in the refined fuel prices. Focusing in Greece as our case study, our findings show that Greek fuel retailers do not change their mark-up behaviour based on changes of the refined fuel price. By contrast, the asymmetric behaviour is evident in the refineries' mark-up relatively to changes in the international crude oil prices, which is then passed through to the retailers and consumers. Finally, we provide evidence that weekly and monthly data mask any such asymmetric relationship. Thus, we maintain that unless the appropriate data frequency, fuel price transformations and the whole supply chain are considered, misleading findings could be revealed.

Tail Causality between Crude Oil Price and RMB Exchange Rate

AbstractIn this paper we assess the causal relationship between international crude oil price changes and the RMB exchange rate using daily information from 21 July 2005 to 5 April 2017. In addition to linear causality tests, we employ quantile causality test to identify prior imperceptible causality in quantiles. We find a causal relationship from crude oil price to exchange rate at each quantile interval, but the reverse only appears in tail. This may help to explain why a traditional linear test fails to capture the causality from exchange rate to crude oil price as the quantile causalities in tails are canceled out by each other. Moreover, using RMB as the settlement currency in crude oil trade can weaken the prior significant causal relationships between crude oil price and exchange rate, whereas the reform of exchange rate marketization reignites the tail causalities from exchange rate to crude oil price. These findings recommend a wider use of domestic currencies in crude oil trade to avoid risk from the crude oil market.

Oil prices, stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns in Turkey taking into account volatility spillovers that are exemplified by second moment effects. Using weekly data from 1990 to 2017 and time varying causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests and taking into account structural breaks, we model each series as an EGARCH process in order to capture any leverage effects in the volatility of returns. Empirical results suggest crude oil prices as measured by Brent benchmark have significant effects on stock market returns in Turkey. While we fail to document significant spillover effects stemming from oil prices in the entire sample, there are significant spillover effects from crude oil price changes to stock market returns in 1993 and 2008–09. These results suggest that government policies must take into account risk spillover effects between markets and that investors are better off monitoring crude oil markets in portfolio allocation decisions.