Changes In Consumer Sentiment Research Articles

Examining the Relationship Between Consumer Sentiment and Stock Price Returns

This study centers on exploring the dynamic relationship between the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (UMCSI) and the S&P 500 Index, employing both a bivariate regression model and Granger Causality analysis. The aim is to provide deeper insights into how fluctuations in consumer sentiment, as reflected by the UMCSI, impact and are impacted by movements in the S&P 500 Index. Furthermore, Granger Causality analysis is employed to discern the directionality of this relationship. The results indicate that the S&P 500 Index Granger Causes the UMCSI, implying that past values of the S&P 500 Index contain predictive information about future changes in consumer sentiment. This finding suggests that stock market movements can potentially serve as leading indicators of shifts in consumer confidence, offering predictive insights into broader economic trends and consumer behavior.

Factors that Affect Advertising Effectiveness: The Publication Time Might Influence the Specific Type of Advertisement

In this article, the research analyzed the different emotions that different times of the year bring to consumers to analyze the best time to place advertisements to gain maximum benefit. In the process of this research, there is a questionnaire asking people about their emotions, consumer impulses, and other results when they see an advert at different times of the year. to find out which types of products matched best at different times of the year. As a result, it was found that major events, weather, etc. at different times of the year produced different factors that led to changes in consumer sentiment and therefore consumer desire. With the help of this article, the influence of environmental and temporal factors in the placement of advertisements can be reduced, and in subsequent studies on the effectiveness of advertising, the findings of this article can be used to control for different temporal variables to more accurately document the research data.

How Did COVID-19 Change Opinions and Behaviors in the Netherlands?

The early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic may have led to a number of behavioral adaptations among Dutch citizens, possibly due to restrictions because of lockdowns, changed orientations toward work, and changes in consumer sentiment. These factors theoretically predict a number of changes in behavior that may have affected people in diverse circumstances in different ways. Among the variables that we study are financial behaviors, health, happiness and emotions. We explore how these variables were affected among households with different sociodemographic conditions, including urbanization, income, gender and age. We use representative panel data from 2019 and 2020 including relevant information from about 2,800 Dutch citizens to study a number of changes primarily during the initial lockdown period in 2020 as compared with the normal situation in 2019. We use regression analysis to estimate the Difference-in-Difference effects of the lockdown in 2020 as compared with the state of affairs in 2019. We find several lockdown effects on transitory thoughts and feelings, i.e., price perceptions, household financial management, emotions, and social relations, of which some effects strongly differ between urban and rural areas. We did not find evidence for more long-lasting effects, for example, on savings, perceived health, and (un)healthy behaviors, although these might have occurred later during the pandemic.

ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ ПОТРЕБИТЕЛЬСКИХ ЦЕННОСТЕЙ В УСЛОВИЯХ ОГРАНИЧЕНИЙ И ИХ ВЛИЯНИЕ НА ОПЕРАЦИОННЫЙ МЕНЕДЖМЕНТ ИНДУСТРИИ ГОСТЕПРИИМСТВА И СФЕРЫ ТУРИЗМА

The subject of the research is consumer values relevant to the current state of the hospitality industry and the tourism sector of the Russian Federation. The spheres considered in this study are particularly susceptible to changes in consumer sentiment, which is a direct consequence of changes in the external environment. This trend is increasing from year to year, which forces business to constantly research, analyze consumer behavior and take it into account in the management of enterprises in the hospitality and tourism industries. This article describes the characteristics of the main consumer values that have been transformed as a result of the impact of sanitary-epidemiological and economical-political restrictions on the domestic hospitality and tourism industries. The necessity of applying the identified consumer values in the operational management of enterprises as a marketing management system, as well as their implementation in each subsystem, is substantiated.

Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis

The study explores the relationship between consumer confidence, household private consumer expenditure and other related macroeconomic financial variables for Brazil, a major, upper middle, income, Latin American country. It is widely discussed in the literature that the consumer confidence is an initial guide to the future behaviour of the economy based on the consumption path. Thus, a rise in the confidence of the consumer would lead to rising household consumption behaviour, which would percolate to accelerate economic growth. The study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) to measure the effects of changes in consumer sentiment on private consumer spending, taking into consideration the significance of other financial variables, namely the rate of interest, stock market index, the exchange rate, inflation and unemployment trends. The study employs monthly data from the 4th month of 1995 to the 10th month of 2018. The bounds test of the NARDL suggests the presence of a cointegrating relationship among the variables. The model estimation affirms the presence of asymmetries in the behaviour of the major explanatory variables. In the short run, there are both positive and negative asymmetric impacts of consumer confidence index (CCI) on consumer expenditure, while the rate of interest has only negative asymmetries. In the long run, unemployment changes, stock market fluctuations, interest rate variation and alterations in the CCI shape the behaviour of consumer spending at the household level in Brazil. So, the consumers are able to perceive the signalling of the future behaviour of the market and contribute through consumption spending. JEL: C22, D12, E21, O54

РАНЖУВАННЯ РОБОТОДАВЦІВ СФЕРИ IT ТА ТЕЛЕКОМУНІКАЦІЙ ЗА ОЗНАКАМИ ВПІЗНАВАНОСТІ БРЕНДУ

The article presents the results of a national survey. The employers in the field of IT and telecommunications were ranked according to the recognizability of the brands. Emphasis is placed on the fact that for Ukrainian enterprises the employer brand is a relatively new tool for building the company’s attractiveness in the labour market, so there is a need to study the job-seekers market and analyze employers approaches to developing employer brand strategy as an important component of enterprise management strategy. We analyzed the dynamics of quantitative and structural changes in the process of brand development of the employer of TOP companies in the field of IT and telecommunications. As well we identified the reasons for these changes. We proved that these reasons are formed both under the influence of economic and demographic factors, and geopolitical changes, which currently have a high degree of uncertainty in Ukraine. We proposed the key indicators for assessing the brand awareness of the employer, which include: awareness of candidates about the company as an employer; the presence of companies in social media platforms; providing opportunities for young people to get their first job; attendance at career events and working conditions. We identified the key components of the employer brand development strategy that influenced the change of these indicators. We substantiated conclusions on the need to improve the methods and tools of formation and implementation of the employer’s brand development strategy. The study showed that today the development of employer brand management has reached such a level of importance that it becomes an integral part of the business strategy of successful companies. The presented data show the state and trends of the IT and telecommunications market in Ukraine. Respondents’ preferences outline the paradigm of consumer thinking that identifies the company as an employer in the market. Such studies should be systemic and conducted at least once a year. Such a perspective would allow us to quickly diagnose changes in consumer sentiment and the threat of new competitors in the labour market. Ukrainian companies are invited to constantly work on improving these indicators as part of the employer’s brand strategy, which affects the attractiveness, preservation, and improvement of the company’s image.

Modeling and forecasting commodity market volatility with long‐term economic and financial variables

AbstractThis paper investigates the time‐varying volatility patterns of some major commodities as well as the potential factors that drive their long‐term volatility component. For this purpose, we make use of a recently proposed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed data sampling approach, which typically allows us to examine the role of economic and financial variables of different frequencies. Using commodity futures for Crude Oil (WTI and Brent), Gold, Silver and Platinum, as well as a commodity index, our results show the necessity for disentangling the short‐term and long‐term components in modeling and forecasting commodity volatility. They also indicate that the long‐term volatility of most commodity futures is significantly driven by the level of global real economic activity as well as changes in consumer sentiment, industrial production, and economic policy uncertainty. However, the forecasting results are not alike across commodity futures as no single model fits all commodities.

Modeling and Forecasting Commodity Market Volatility with Long-term Economic and Financial Variables

This paper investigates the time-varying volatility patterns of some major commodities as well as the potential factors that drive their long-term volatility component. For this purpose, we make use of a recently proposed GARCH-MIDAS approach which typically allows us to examine the role of economic and financial variables of different frequencies. Using commodity futures for Crude Oil (WTI and Brent), Gold, Silver and Platinum as well as a commodity index, our results show the necessity of disentangling the short-term and long-term components in modeling and forecasting commodity volatility. They also indicate that the long-term volatility of most commodity futures is significantly driven by the level of the global real economic activity as well as the changes in consumer sentiment, industrial production, and economic policy uncertainty. However, the forecasting results are not alike across commodity futures as no single model fits all commodities.

A study on the impact of changes in consumer sentiment on the housing market in Korea

ABSTRACTThis study examined the effect of consumer sentiment on housing market upon the trading volume and price in the housing market through the panel Vector Auto-Regression analysis employed on monthly data collected from 15 metropolitan cities and local provinces in Korea. Results of the empirical analysis revealed the positive (+) influence of consumer sentiment upon trading volume and price in the housing market together with the negative (−) influence of interest rate of CDs and actual construction of residential buildings and the positive (+) one of the index of industrial production upon trading price in the housing market. The results imply that the moves of trading volume and price in the housing market would be dependent on the speculation on trading price of houses in the housing market. It also suggests that the consumer sentiment can be employed as a variable to predict moves in the housing market.

Social media in product development

With the increasing availability of the internet, a significant amount of data has been generated through social media. Consumer goods companies, scientists, and innovators are competing to find ways to leverage this information. Social media information is considered useful for marketers as they can directly track consumer responses to marketing campaigns, product performance, and the changes in consumer sentiment toward a brand. Many companies have also developed consumer engagement programs through social media. However, the utility of social media learning in product development seems indirect, or perhaps illusive. While many marketers are being challenged to demonstrate return on investment and many sensory and product research professionals are navigating different pathways to leverage social media information, this paper presents a fresh way of conducting the query to generate consumer and product relevant information. Coffee freshness was used as the research topic. The research here confirmed the validity of social media output. It also demonstrated the value of multi-language and cross-sectional queries. Lastly, best practices in social media research were discussed and recommendations were made regarding how to effectively include the social media tool in sensory and the product research toolbox. The authors challenge the sensory product research professionals to include social media data in their future consumer research framework. Failure to leverage social media may result in higher expenses in the cost of product development when compared to using only traditional consumer and product research tools. More importantly, researchers may miss insights that are impractical or difficult to obtain from traditional research tools.

Predicting the directional change in consumer sentiment

The Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) is a widely monitored economic indicator. The index measures consumer expectations, which contain information about potential future changes in consumer spending. Thus, any change in the dynamics of the sentiment index should contain important signals about future consumer behaviour, as well as changes in the real economy and stock returns. In this paper we use Cox’s proportional hazards model to estimate dynamic transition probabilities for a reversal in the CSI. We predict the probability of both positive and negative runs in sentiment surviving in the same state. Lagged changes in consumer sentiment and the frequency of recent reversals of sentiment are found to be significant predictors of a change in state. The model has substantial predictive ability, as measured by both categorical accuracy and a probability scoring rule, the Brier Score (Brier, 1950) out of sample. The predictive accuracy of the model is robust to the impact of the global financial crisis.

Effect of consumer sentiment on hospitality expenditures and stock returns

Given the importance of consumers to the U.S. economy and especially to the hospitality industry, we explore how consumer sentiment (i.e. confidence in the economy) affects consumption expenditures and stock returns in the hospitality industry.We find that not only does consumer sentiment partly predict changes in future consumption expenditures, but changes in consumer sentiment are contemporaneously related to hospitality industry stock returns. More importantly, our results indicate that changes in consumer sentiment can partly predict changes in stock prices of hospitality firms, an indicator of firm performance. The predictive ability of consumer sentiment can thus be useful to managers in business forecasting, planning, and strategizing for profit maximization.

Violent victimization among males and economic conditions

Research Summary In this article, we use data from the 1973 to 2005 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to estimate previously unknown trends in serious nonfatal violent victimization for Latino, non‐Latino Black, and non‐Latino White males in the United States. Past research has shown that Blacks and Latinos have been more susceptible than Whites to financial hardship during economic downturns and that economic disadvantage is an important correlate of violence in cross‐sectional analyses. If significant declines in the national economy contribute to increases in violence, then crime trends disaggregated by race and ethnicity should show greater changes among minorities during periods of economic downturn. Although rates of violence have declined for all groups, we find that trends for Latino and Black males are similar and closely follow changes in consumer sentiment. In contrast, trends for White males display fewer fluctuations coinciding with changes in economic conditions. Continued disaggregation shows that these patterns appear primarily in stranger violence and not in violence by known offenders. The patterns also suggest that the association between changing economic conditions and male victimization trends might have weakened in recent years. Policy Implications The findings raise concerns about the potential impact of recent economic changes on the risk for serious victimization, particularly among Blacks and Latinos. In light of the possible recent weakening of the relationship between economic changes and crime, future research should assess whether criminal justice policies and other factors moderate the relationship between economic conditions and victimization and use group‐specific measures of violence so that important variability across race and ethnicity is not masked. These analyses also should be expanded to consider the potential effects on violence of government policies designed to alleviate poverty and unemployment.

Panel Cointegration Analysis of Consumer Confidence and Personal Consumption in the European Union

This study examines the relationship between consumer confidence, personal consumption, and other relevant economic and financial variables for 9 European Union countries. It is argued that consumer confidence is an early indicator of future rates of growth in an economy through the consumption channel. Therefore, an increase in consumer confidence should translate into higher rates of consumption in the future, leading to a possible rise in economic growth. Our panel data analysis, conducting panel unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, tries to measure the effects of changes in consumer sentiment on personal consumption expenditures while accounting for other significant economic and financial variables such as stock exchange index, real exchange rates and interest rates. The empirical findings show the existence of a long‐run relationship. Thus, consumers are able to detect early signals about future rates of economic growth as they contribute through the consumption channel. First Publish Online: 09 Jun 2011

Do Stock Market Returns Affect Consumer Sentiment? An Irish Study

This paper studies the relationship between changes in consumer sentiment and stock market returns in Ireland from January 1996 to June 2006. We argue that Irish consumers were highly influenced by movements in the stock market during this period because of their concerns for their stock-based compensation, their job security and their earnings. We find that the change in consumer sentiment and stock returns were related during this time, and that movements in the stock market impacted on consumer sentiment.

Consumer Durable Spending: Explanation and Prediction

IN AN EARLIER PAPER presented to the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, I attempted to survey the extent to which recent consumer behavior would have been understood by some of the principal U.S. forecasting models in the absence of concurrent errors emanating from other sectors of the economy.' At that time, I concluded that the errors in forecasting that reflected most seriously on the structure and composition of the typical forecasting equations concerned consumer durable expenditures, particularly for automobiles. An attempt to improve the explanatory power and forecasting ability of a stock-adjustment automobile equation by incorporating a household wealth variable was notably unsuccessful. The analysis reported in the present paper stems from the findings in the earlier report. The concentration here is on consumer durables, especially automobiles. While the wealth variable has been abandoned for the present, its prime mover-the stock market-continues to play a significant role in the investigation, both directly, and indirectly as a possible source of changes in consumer sentiment. In the majority of econometric consumption equations in standard use as forecasting tools, variables directly reflecting consumer sentiment play