The urban thermal environment constitutes a significant aspect of the urban physical environment and warrants consideration in urban planning. Nonetheless, the nonlinear relationship between various factors and the urban thermal environment across different scales, as well as effective strategies for mitigating it, remain unclear. This study employs XGBoost and SHAP models alongside Partial Dependency Plot to analyze the impact of changes in socio-economic activities, built environment, and blue-green spatial patterns on land surface temperature grades within the Shanghai municipality and central Shanghai. Findings underscore that factors influencing the urban thermal environment vary between the municipality and central urban scales. Specifically, blue-green spatial patterns change hold greater relative importance at the scale of the municipality in Shanghai, while socio-economic activities and built environment changes are more significant at central Shanghai scale. Moreover, the spatial contribution of factors varies across scales, and most exhibit a nonlinear relationship with the urban thermal environment. This in-depth exploration of the scale effect on the urban thermal environment offers insights for formulating urban planning strategies to alleviate associated challenges.
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