Change Risk Assessment Research Articles

A Quick-Scan Methodology Incorporating Local Knowledge for Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments Applied in Kampala

AbstractA surge in publications on climate change vulnerability and risk assessments in recent years reflects the escalating impacts of climate change. These assessments are crucial for improving climate change adaptation planning. City-level integrated climate risk and vulnerability assessments (CRVAs) are increasingly relevant, particularly for African cities facing heightened vulnerability from local climate impacts and urbanization. There are several practical challenges in the context of Sub-Saharan African cities: 1) research capacity limitations; 2) the heterogeneity of settlements and their infrastructure; 3) data availability and accessibility; and 4) inclusion of local knowledge in the data collection process. This study aims to address these challenges through an integrated quick-scan CRVA approach. The methodology was developed during the COVID-19 pandemic to be conducted on distance with local partners, and tested through an instrumental case study in Kampala, Uganda. The case of Kampala shows the execution and resulting scan, with mapped districts where climate threats are urgent, summarized in so-called ‘neighbourhood profiles’. The method description and its implementation demonstrate that this form of CRVA methodology holds the potential to: (a) expedite city-wide climate assessments; (b) provide a filter procedure and a classification of diverse needs across districts; (c) bring together ‘insider knowledge’ and ‘outsider expertise’ and (d) establish knowledge collaborations across distances and scales. In just a few months’ time, the project team navigated in both informal community systems and formal institutional frameworks. Preferable to the alternative of complete absence of vulnerability assessments, the described ‘quick-scan method’ may be worthwhile for other African cities.

Flooding and Mental Health interventions for vulnerable groups

Abstract Issue/Problem The UK is increasingly vulnerable to flooding due to climate change, which significantly affects mental health. Vulnerable populations are disproportionately impacted, experiencing stress, anxiety, and other severe mental health issues, requiring effective intervention strategies. Description of the problem The UK’s third Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) highlights flooding as a key challenge, with mental health impacts representing a major health burden. Effective interventions are crucial for these communities. Results UKHSA’s flooding and mental health guidance is incorporated into flooding and health advice documents for the public and frontline responders. It includes assessment and support strategies for health and social care staff, emergency responders, and local authorities. It focuses on those most at risk and promotes a phased approach to care-from immediate safety and shelter to long-term psychological support. This strategy accommodates the prolonged nature of mental health recovery, requiring adaptable and sustained interventions. Lessons Addressing the mental health impacts of flooding demands a comprehensive, multi-phase strategy that adapts to the evolving needs of affected populations. Early intervention and long-term support are vital to mitigate the extensive psychosocial damage. Key messages • Flooding severely affects mental health, necessitating structured, long-term interventions. • Flexible support strategies that evolve over time are crucial for effective recovery, ensuring that interventions meet the changing needs of those impacted by flooding.

Review of national climate change risk assessment methods for impacts on health and health systems in WHO European Region

Abstract Background Climate change poses significant risks to health and health systems. The European Union climate adaptation strategy sets out the pathway to become climate resilient by 2050 and supports the development of adaptation strategies across all levels of governance. Whilst many European countries have published climate change risk assessments (CCRA), it is unclear to what extent health outcomes have been quantified or prioritised. There is a need to improve methods for CCRA methods to support decision making on adaptation and better quantify future impacts on health. The aim of this study is to review the methods used in national CCRAs for impacts on health and health systems in the WHO European region. Methods National and European level CCRAs were identified from national government websites and European document databases e.g. Climate-ADAPT. The most recently published CCRA from each country was included. Data extracted from CCRAs included climate scenarios used, modelling data, outcomes, types of evidence evaluated, stakeholder involvement, health information, methods for prioritization of adaptation options and urgency scoring. Data extracted from each document was grouped by climate risk or outcome. Results Nearly all WHO EURO countries have conducted a formal assessment of climate risks and over half specifically include risks to health. All countries assessed the urgency to adapt to heat and flooding however, less than half consider the health related risks related to disrupted water supply and quality as well as impacts on food supply and security. The key reported health outcomes identified across countries were mortality, infectious disease, chronic diseases and mental health. Conclusions There is varying progress in the quantification and prioritization of health risks from climate change across Europe. To support better public health decision-making, CCRAs should integrate sub-national and local information for targeted adaptation action.

Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk.

Climate change and natural hazard risk assessments often overlook indirect impacts, leading to a limited understanding of the full extent of risk and the disparities in its distribution across populations. This study investigates distributional justice in natural hazard impacts, exploring its critical implications for environmental justice, equity, and resilience in adaptation planning. We employ high-resolution spatial risk assessment and origin-destination routing to analyze coastal flooding and sea-level rise scenarios in Aotearoa New Zealand. This approach allows the assessment of both direct impacts (property exposure) and indirect impacts (physical isolation from key amenities) on residents. Indirect impacts, such as isolation and reduced access to resources, have significant adverse effects on well-being, social cohesion, and community resilience. Including indirect impacts in risk assessments dramatically increases the overall population burden, while revealing complex effects on existing inequalities. Our analysis reveals that including indirect impacts increases the overall population burden, but the effect on inequalities varies. These inequalities can be exacerbated or attenuated depending on scale and location, underscoring the need for decision-makers to identify these nuanced distributions and apply context-specific frameworks when determining equitable outcomes. Our findings uncover a substantial number of previously invisible at-risk residents-from 61,000 to 217,000 nationally in a present-day event-and expose a shift in impact distribution toward underserved communities. As indirect risks exacerbate disparities and impede climate adaptation efforts, adopting an inclusive approach that accounts for both direct and indirect risks and their [un]equal distribution is imperative for effective and equitabledecision-making.

Advances and future directions of environmental risk research: A bibliometric review

Environmental risk is one of the world’s most significant threats, projected to be the leading risk over the next decade. It has garnered global attention due to increasingly severe environmental issues, such as climate change and ecosystem degradation. Research and technology on environmental risks are gradually developing, and the scope of environmental risk study is also expanding. Here, we developed a tailored bibliometric method, incorporating co-occurrence network analysis, cluster analysis, trend factor analysis, patent primary path analysis, and patent map methods, to explore the status, hotspots, and trends of environment risk research over the past three decades. According to the bibliometric results, the publications and patents related to environmental risk have reached explosive growth since 2018. The primary topics in environmental risk research mainly involve (a) ecotoxicology risk of emerging contaminants (ECs), (b) environmental risk induced by climate change, (c) air pollution and health risk assessment, (d) soil contamination and risk prevention, and (e) environmental risk of heavy metal. Recently, the hotspots of this field have shifted into artificial intelligence (AI) based techniques and environmental risk of climate change and ECs. More research is needed to assess ecological and health risk of ECs, to formulize mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change risks, and to develop AI-based environmental risk assessment and control technology. This study provides the first comprehensive overview of recent advances in environmental risk research, suggesting future research directions based on current understanding and limitations.

Towards a National Heritage Climate Change Risk Assessment Hacia una Evaluación del Riesgo de Cambio Climático del Patrimonio Nacional

ABSTRACT Climate change is one of the greatest threats to cultural heritage. This work develops a climate change risk assessment (CCRA) methodology, assessing large portfolios of properties spread over a wide geographic area. Climate hazards, exposure and vulnerability metrics are identified, and results from two case studies presented to highlight the application of the national CCRA. How a national CCRA fits in a wider context is discussed along with improvements and further work. This method helps understand the impact of climate change across a large estate, supports investment prioritisation and climate informed decision making to increase heritage resilience.

Traversing the land-sea interface: A climate change risk assessment of terrestrially breeding marine predators.

Terrestrially breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change worldwide. These central-place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to evaluate climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait-based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable assessment framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk. We identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes, as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species, were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability. We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at-risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less-studied hazards, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given that monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land-dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season.

Economic Indicator System for Adaptive Monitoring of Compound Climate Change Risks

Climate change adaptation requires proactive development of adaptive planning strategies. To implement such strategies, it is crucial to identify indicators that can monitor and signal approaching adaptation thresholds. While existing research has focused on physical and hazard-based indicators, addressing social and economic indicators is essential for informed decision-making. This research aims to fill this gap by compiling 298 economic indicators across six categories: fiscal factors for central, regional, and local governments; financial system indicators; indicators for industries, businesses, and public organisations; and indicators for identifying socially vulnerable populations due to climate change. Derived from previous studies and the national climate change risk assessment framework, these indicators aim to provide policymakers at all levels and communities with a ready-to-use toolbox for monitoring climate change economic risks. Additionally, the research identifies measurable indicators as well as those that cannot currently be measured but could potentially be quantified. Future work involves further analysis and mapping of these indicators to form a cohesive set warning of the need for adaptation measures, aiming to equip decision-makers with tools to address the economic impacts of climate change.

Compound climate change risk analysis for port infrastructures

Ports serve as essential nodes for coastal and maritime transportation and are key sources of income and economic activity in coastal zones. This significance, combined with their location in coastal areas, which are prone to climate-driven impacts, makes them highly susceptible to climate change effects. In this work, a climate change risk assessment methodology for port infrastructures that is focused on compound events analysis is presented. This approach is based on a spatial high-resolution probabilistic framework that enables the evaluation of port performance evolution under the effects of climate change. This assessment draws from a multimodel characterization of the evolution of several climate drivers for different emission scenarios and time horizons. It accounts for multiple port infrastructure risks and considers the compound effects of climate drivers and the interdependencies of infrastructures as complex systems. Performance indicators are developed for the physical assets and services at port locations on a highly granular scale, thus allowing port managers and planners to allocate reserves and develop adaptation plans that reduce climate change risks in the operations of maritime transportation nodes based on port performance forecasts. The methodology is implemented in two case studies set in the northern coast of Spain, demonstrating its applicability and replicability among several locations and scales.

A data science approach to climate change risk assessment applied to pluvial flood occurrences for the United States and Canada

Abstract There is mounting pressure on (re)insurers to quantify the impacts of climate change, notably on the frequency and severity of claims due to weather events such as flooding. This is however a very challenging task for (re)insurers as it requires modeling at the scale of a portfolio and at a high enough spatial resolution to incorporate local climate change effects. In this paper, we introduce a data science approach to climate change risk assessment of pluvial flooding for insurance portfolios over Canada and the United States (US). The underlying flood occurrence model quantifies the financial impacts of short-term (12–48 h) precipitation dynamics over the present (2010–2030) and future climate (2040–2060) by leveraging statistical/machine learning and regional climate models. The flood occurrence model is designed for applications that do not require street-level precision as is often the case for scenario and trend analyses. It is applied at the full scale of Canada and the US over 10–25 km grids. Our analyses show that climate change and urbanization will typically increase losses over Canada and the US, while impacts are strongly heterogeneous from one state or province to another, or even within a territory. Portfolio applications highlight the importance for a (re)insurer to differentiate between future changes in hazard and exposure, as the latter may magnify or attenuate the impacts of climate change on losses.

A framework for improved predictions of the climate impacts on potential yields of UK winter wheat and its applicability to other UK crops

Changes in the frequency of extreme weather events related to climate change potentially pose significant challenges to UK agricultural production. There is a need for improved climate change risk assessments to support adaptation strategies and to ensure security of food production in future.We describe an innovative and practical framework for spatially explicit modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields, based on the UKCP18 climate projections. Our approach allows the integration of relatively simple crop growth models with high spatial and temporal resolution Earth Observation datasets, describing changes in crop growth parameters within year and over the longer term. We focus on modelling winter wheat, a commercially important crop. We evaluate the results of the model against precision yield data collected from 719 fields. We show that the assimilation of leaf area index data from Sentinel-2 satellite observations improves the agreement of the modelled yields with those observed. Our national-scale results indicate that wheat production initially becomes more favourable under climate change across much of the UK with the projected increase in temperature. From 2050 onwards, yields increase northwards, whilst they decline in South East England as the decrease in precipitation offsets the benefits of rising temperature.Our framework can readily accommodate growth models for other crops and LAI retrievals from other satellite sensors. The ability to explore impacts of crop yields at fine spatial resolutions is an important part of assessing the potential risks of climate change to UK agriculture and of designing more climate resilient agricultural systems.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of the time of emergence for anthropogenic tropospheric temperature changes based on the CMIP6 multi-model results

In the 20th century, with the intensification of human activities, the Earth is experiencing unprecedented warming. However, there are certain differences in the sensitivity of temperature changes to anthropogenic forcings in different regions and at different altitudes of the troposphere. The time of emergence (TOE) is the key point at which the anthropogenic climate change signal exceeds from the internal climate variability serving as a noise. It is a crucial variable for climate change detection, climate prediction and risk assessment. Here, we systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of the TOE of temperature changes over the past century by calculating the SNR based on the selected CMIP6 multi-model outputs. The results show that the temperature TOE, particularly in the lower and middle troposphere, shows distinct latitude dependence, displaying an ‘M-type’ distribution from the Antarctic to the Arctic: it first appears in low-latitudes, followed by high-latitudes, and last appears in the two mid latitude bands. For the tropics, the TOE of tropospheric temperatures becomes earlier with increasing altitude: the TOE of air temperatures at the surface, mid-tropospheric 500 hPa and upper-tropospheric 200 hPa occurs in 1980 ± 15, 1965 ± 20, and 1930 ± 30, respectively. The TOEs of tropospheric temperatures in eastern equatorial Pacific are 10–30 years later than those in the western equatorial Pacific. For the regional TOEs of surface air temperature diverse differences exist on land and ocean in various latitudes of two hemispheres.

The need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios.

Climate change risk assessment studies focus on identifying and analyzing different risks considering several climate change scenarios and on evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different adaptation measures. However, risk acceptability is often not reflected on in the context of climate change risk studies. Noting that the different climate change scenarios depict drastically contrasting images of the future in terms of population growth, economic development, and changes to life expectancy, this article uses risk acceptance criteria that are based on socioeconomic considerations to highlight the need for nonuniform risk acceptability across climate change scenarios. For this purpose, the optimum implied cost of averting a fatality derived based on the life quality index concept and the value of a quality-adjusted life year derived based on the time principle of acceptable life risk are assessed in three different climate change scenarios for Sweden. Additionally, an illustrative example that assesses the acceptable probability of failure of a steel rod under axial tension in the different climate change scenarios is presented. It is shown that risk acceptance criteria can vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios (e.g., more than 190% variation in the acceptable probability of failure for Sweden in the considered example). This article demonstrates that the ability of societies to afford risk-reducing measures may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Hence, it can be concluded that (1) in the context of climate change risk assessments, risk acceptance criteria need to be developed to account for the different climate change scenarios, and (2) these criteria may vary considerably across the different climate change scenarios. Finally, relevant challenges and research needs are also provided.

Prefrontal control of superior colliculus modulates innate escape behavior following adversity

Innate defensive responses, though primarily instinctive, must also be highly adaptive to changes in risk assessment. However, adaptive changes can become maladaptive, following severe stress, as seen in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). In a series of experiments, we observed long-term changes in innate escape behavior of male mice towards a previously non-threatening stimulus following an adverse shock experience manifested as a shift in the threshold of threat response. By recording neural activity in the superior colliculus (SC) while phototagging specific responses to afferents, we established the crucial influence of input arriving at the SC from the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC), both directly and indirectly, on escape-related activity after adverse shock experience. Inactivating these specific projections during the shock effectively abolished the observed changes. Conversely, optogenetically activating them during encounters controlled escape responses. This establishes the necessity and sufficiency of those specific mPFC inputs into the SC for adverse experience related changes in innate escape behavior.

Proposed Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation of Water Infrastructures in the Mediterranean Region

Water Infrastructure (WI) is one of the most important sectors of Critical Infrastructure (CI); it encompasses drinking water, wastewater, and stormwater. The WI is vulnerable to the effects of Climate Change (CC) that can disrupt its functionality; thus, it needs to be adapted to CC, especially in the Mediterranean region, where these effects are expected to intensify during the twenty-first century. For this adaptation a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) is required in the development of WI to identify the important climate hazards and to recommend the required measures for the adaptation of the WI to these hazards. In the present work, a CRVA methodology is developed and presented based on a literature survey and the relevant European Commission guidelines; it is structured around five key steps: (1) Description of the WI, (2) Climate change assessment, (3) Vulnerability assessment, (4) Risk assessment, and (5) Assessment of adaptation measures. The application of the methodology is illustrated indicatively to a wastewater system in Greece for which preliminary estimations are performed, results are discussed, and conclusions are drawn. The proposed methodology can be modified for application to other sectors of CI; moreover, is a valuable resource in academic curricula and ongoing research initiatives.

Translating climate risk assessments into more effective adaptation decision-making: The importance of social and political aspects of place-based climate risk

Climate risk continues to be framed ostensibly in terms of physical, socio-economic and/or ecological risks, as evidenced in the 2012 and 2017 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) evidence reports. This article argues that framing climate risk in this way remains problematic for the science-policy process, particularly in ensuring adequate climate risk assessment information translates into more effective adaptation decision-making. We argue how climate risk assessments need to further consider the social and political aspects of place-based climate risk to ensure more effective adaptation policy outcomes. Using a discourse analysis of the CCRA3 Technical Report methods chapter published in June 2021, we discuss three critical themes around how climate risk is currently framed within the Technical Report methods chapter. These are (i) the over-reliance on reductive methodological framing of assessing climate risk through ‘urgency scores’; (ii) the idea of what constitutes ‘opportunity’; and (iii) the framing of transformational adaptation discourses through the lens of climate risk. To conclude, we suggest that to move beyond assessing risk solely in terms of biophysical and socio-economic risk, a greater emphasis on the social and political contexts of ‘place-based’ risk needs to be central to climate change risk assessments.

Assessment of observed temperature trend patterns of Bhubaneswar city, India with special prominence on future projections using SimCLIM climate model and farmer’s perception

<p>Temperature dynamics is a widely recognized indicator of the global warming phenomenon. Changes in temperature patterns in Bhubaneswar, India, were assessed by examining the monthly minimum and maximum temperature data for 60 years (1956–2015) sourced from the Indian Meteorological Department. SimCLIM climate change risk assessment software was used for projecting the temperature regime for four different representative concentration pathways. Further, a survey of 112 farmers was conducted to understand their perceptions of temperature variations in and around Bhubaneswar city using a multi-stage sampling technique. Mann–Kendall statistics and linear regression were used to analyze the monthly temperature data and trend detection. The study reveals a change of +4%,-4.44%, and +1.09% in the mean monthly maximum, minimum, and annual temperature. The results of the future projection show a temperature change of 0.81°C for RCP 2.6, 1.12°C for RCP 4.5, 1.03°C for RCP 6.0, and 1.54°C for RCP 8.5 for the year 2050. Confirming the analysis findings, most of the interviewed farmers also perceived increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation in and around the city. The study outcome of temperature trend analysis and future projections will be helpful for farmers and policymakers in formulating adaptation strategies to climate change.</p>

Thermal Threats to Freshwater Mussels: An Empirical Stream Assessment

Freshwater mussels fulfill an important ecological role in aquatic ecosystems, but they currently face many threats, including thermal regime alteration. Thermal transformation of the aquatic environment is associated with climate change, land use alteration, and other pervasive anthropogenic global changes. To enhance our understanding of ecological thermal impacts, we combined extensive field measurements of temperature in the stream water column and substrate depths (5 and 15 cm) at sites where mussels occur, measures of abundance and species richness for mussels and fish, and thermal tolerance knowledge for mussels and fish to generate a comprehensive assessment of the potential threats mussels face as temperatures continue to rise as a result of global change. Mean summer (June–August 2010–2012) temperatures at mussel-occupied sites in the upper Tar River basin of North Carolina, USA, ranged from 16.2 to 34.7 °C. The mean temperature from the hottest 96 h at each site ranged from 23.5 to 31.5 °C. At 80% of sites, a period of moderate drought coincided with the hottest 96 h period. Temperature threshold exceedance durations indicated that chronic, combined chronic/acute, and acute freshwater mussel thermal tolerance thresholds (i.e., 28 °C, 30 °C, and 33 °C, respectively) based on laboratory exposures of glochidia (larvae) and juveniles were commonly exceeded. Water temperatures exceeded 28 °C for at least 24 h at 55% of sites and for at least 96 h at 35% of sites, and they exceeded 30 °C for at least 24 h at 15% of sites. We quantified a thermal buffering effect of the substrate that may be protective of mussels. There was a mean difference of 0.5 °C between the water column and the upper substrate (5 cm) and a mean difference of 0.9 °C between the water column and the lower substrate (15 cm). Maximum differences of up to 5.5 °C between the water column and the upper substrate and 11.5 °C between the water column and the lower substrate were observed. Our models estimating the relation between the water column and substrate temperatures more realistically characterize ambient temperature exposures and have widespread implications for mussel conservation and climate change risk assessment in similar streams. Freshwater mussels currently exist on the edge of their thermal limits, but their abundance and species richness cannot be explained by temperature patterns alone. Fish species richness was related to the thermal regime, indicating that species interactions may be an important driver of freshwater mussel responses to global change.

1990~2020年赤峰市土地利用变化及景观生态风险评价

1990~2020年赤峰市土地利用变化及景观生态风险评价

Climate Change and Hydrological Risk Assessment: Probable Maximum Precipitation Analysis in the Sindh Basin

Climate Change and Hydrological Risk Assessment: Probable Maximum Precipitation Analysis in the Sindh Basin