Land Cover Change Research Articles

Understanding the relationship between land use/land cover changes and air quality: A GIS-based fuzzy inference system approach.

Air pollution is a global issue that demands urgent attention due to its detrimental effects on human health and the environment. Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change is an essential factor that significantly impacts ambient air quality through alterations in emission sources, vegetation cover, natural processes, and urban design. This study investigates the spatio-temporal variation of key air pollutants resulting from urban LULC changes in the Delhi region. Findings reveal a notable increase in pollutant concentrations, particularly particulate matter, in 2019 (PM10: 318.65 ± 45.80 µg/m3) and 2023 (PM10: 383.70 ± 61.49 µg/m3), compared to 2008 (PM10: 246.76 ± 30.66). LULC change analysis demonstrates a rise in built-up areas 24.59%(2008 to 2019), 33.62% (2008 to 2023) and a decline in vegetation cover 27.49% (2008 to 2019),32.37% (2008 to 2023). Correlation analysis indicates a positive correlation between PM10 and urban indices (+ 0.63) and a negative correlation between PM10 and vegetation indices (- 0.61), highlighting the impact of LULC on air quality deterioration. Subsequently, a fuzzy inference system model integrates LULC information to develop an air quality index (AQI). Incorporating LULC changes in AQI assessment offers a realistic approach to address the complexity arising from combined air pollutant effects, surpassing conventional AQI calculation methods. The findings underscore the significance of understanding the impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) change on ambient air quality in formulating effective air quality management programs and policies. Integrating this knowledge into policymaking is crucial for the successful abatement of air pollution in urbanized areas.

Evolving road networks and urban landscape transformation in the Himalayan foothills, India.

The amalgamation of Himalayan and Indo-Burmese biodiversity has made the state of Manipur, India, a unique ecosystem. In addition, the region is a strategic place for the country to establish an economic corridor to Southeast Asia. In recent times, the region has witnessed tremendous infrastructural/road development. Subsequently, forest fragmentation related to urbanization and road expansion has emerged in the Himalayan foothills. The development of roads brought rapid changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and thus subsequent environmental degradation. The current study attempts to understand how the development of road networks has impacted the natural cover in Manipur, India. A spatio-temporal analysis was performed to assess the relationship between the development of road networks and LULC changes using the Landsat satellite images over a decade (2012-2022). The results showed significant changes in the area coverage of LULC categories such as agricultural land, built-up areas, forest, and water bodies with the increase in road density. To have a holistic view, the study area was segregated into three functional zones based on their urban land use pattern, i.e., urban center, peri-urban, and urban peripheral fringes. Urban sprawl in the urban center has led to the rapid conversion of forested lands into built-up areas and agricultural lands in the peri-urban and urban peripheral fringes, respectively. The decline of forest areas to urbanization in peri-urban and urban peripheral fringes calls for conservation and restoration initiatives. The study also emphasizes how different stakeholders can be involved and empowered to strengthen public-private partnerships for conservation and restoration in such sensitive ecosystems. Urban planners and developers should be critical in making informed decisions through understanding ecological concerns in tandem with infrastructural development.

A Study on the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Land Cover Change and Carbon Storage in the Northern Gulf Economic Zone of Guangxi Based on the InVEST Model

In recent years, the international community has increasingly focused on the “dual carbon” issue, as human-induced land use changes significantly impact ecosystem structure and carbon cycling. This study analyzes land use changes in the economic zone of the northern Gulf of Guangxi from 1980 to 2020, utilizing the InVEST model to simulate spatiotemporal changes in carbon storage and conducting zoning studies through spatial analysis. The findings reveal that ① forest land and arable land dominate the northern Gulf of Guangxi’s land use, with notable changes observed in forest land, unused land, and construction land areas. Forest land and construction land have increased by 1761.5 km2 and 1001.19 km2, respectively, while unused land has decreased by 1881.18 km2 from 2000 to 2020. ② The total carbon storage values in the northern Gulf of Guangxi in 1980, 2000, and 2020 were, respectively, 504.91 × 106/t, 487.29 × 106/t, and 500.31 × 106/t, with the expansion of construction land and conversion of forest land being the main reasons for the decrease in carbon storage. ③ In the northern Gulf of Guangxi, there is a slight upward trend in total carbon storage values over time. Spatially, higher carbon storage values are observed in mountainous and hilly areas at high altitudes, while the central and southern coastal areas exhibit lower carbon storage values. ④ The local spatial autocorrelation results reveal that Pu Bei County exhibits high–high clustering of carbon storage, while He Pu County undergoes a transition from high–low to low–low clustering, and several other administrative areas in Beihai demonstrates low–low clustering. Due to the imperative of economic development, the expansion of urban construction land encroaches upon ecological land, resulting in a decline in carbon storage. Therefore, in the Northern Gulf of Guangxi, it is essential to implement measures such as reforestation and establish ecological protection areas such as forests, grasslands, and wetlands to develop effective carbon sequestration methods and compensate for the carbon loss caused by the expansion of construction land.

Assessing Land Use and Cover Changes arising from the 2022 water crisis in Southeast China: A comparative analysis of Remote Sensing Imagery classifications and Machine Learning algorithms

Abstract. The water crisis in the southeast region of China in 2022, caused by one of the worst heatwaves on record, was characterized by severe shortages of water resources, leading to challenges for local communities, agriculture, and industry. To analyze changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Jialing River region, Chongqing, China, we compared Remote Sensing (RS) imagery classifications before and after the intense heat waves of 2022. We evaluated the performance of two machine learning algorithms, KDTree KNN and Random Forest (RF), in LULC classifications. The classifications were carried out based on the RS images from the OLI/Landsat 8 system, NDWI index, and SRTM data. The model performances were similar, the classification accuracy showed that the RF algorithm was superior to KDTree KNN. The RF LULC classification and area calculation corroborate with the visual analysis, reaffirming the superiority of RF, which shows a decrease in water surface area, unlike DKTree KNN.

Spatiotemporal land use land cover (LULC) change analysis of urban narrow river using Google Earth Engine and Machine learning algorithms in Monterrey, Mexico

Abstract. This study evaluates four Machine Learning Algorithms—Random Forest (RF), K-Means Clustering, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Classification and Regression Trees (CART)—for precise land use and land cover (LULC) classification in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area. During the period 2016-2019, and with alternating wet and dry season classifications, the research addresses challenges in identifying narrow rivers, using geospatial tools and it does notably the Pesqueria River, which is specially the most narrow and shallow river in the area. Five classes—Water, Vegetation, Urban, and Soil—were classified, achieving precision rates above 85%. Remarkably, SVM exhibited an excellent accuracy, particularly for narrow rivers, showcasing its utility in complex urban landscapes. The study utilizes high resolution satellite imagery with a spatial resolution of 4.7m, contributing to the reliability of the results. Emphasizing temporal dynamics, the research links LULC changes to urbanization, infrastructure, and seasonal variations, offering vital insights for sustainable urban development.

Economic Valuation of Ecosystem Services of Coastal Area of Kinondoni District, Tanzania

This study investigates the often overlooked economic values of ecosystem services in the coastal area of Kinondoni District, Tanzania, in the context of spatial and temporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC). The primary objectives were to assess how ecosystem services and functions have been affected by LULC changes over a 30-year period, from 1993 to 2023. The study employs a benefit transfer method, integrating local and global estimations of ecosystem service value (ESV) with field survey, remote sensing and GIS techniques. The findings reveal that the annual changes in ESV during the study period are estimated at US$ 0.024 million and US$ 0.034 million using local and global coefficients, respectively. Over the three decades, there has been a significant annual loss of US$ 0.72 million locally and US$ 2.11 million globally, primarily due to the degradation of mangrove forests and bushland. The decline in ecosystem functions is largely driven by reductions in regulating services, which account for 54.1% of the total decrease in local valuations and 31.6% in global valuations. Supporting services also experienced substantial declines, with reductions of 39.7% in local valuations and 55.8% in global valuations. The study underscores the urgent need to review and enhance management and conservation strategies to ensure the sustainability of the coastal ecosystems in Kinondoni District, Tanzania.

Multi-Scenario land cover changes and carbon emissions prediction for peak carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, China

Multi-Scenario land cover changes and carbon emissions prediction for peak carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin, China

Hydrological response to climate and land use and land cover change in the Teesta River basin

Hydrological response to climate and land use and land cover change in the Teesta River basin

Revealing the dynamic effects of land cover change on land surface temperature in global major bay areas

Revealing the dynamic effects of land cover change on land surface temperature in global major bay areas

Assessment of Water-Related Ecosystem Services and Beneficiaries in the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park

Tropical rainforests are of vital importance to the environment, as they contribute to weather patterns, biodiversity and even human wellbeing. Hence, in the face of tropical deforestation, it becomes exigent to quantify and assess the contribution of ecosystem services associated with tropical rainforests to the environment and especially to the people. This study adopted a nuanced approach, different from traditional economic valuations, to estimate the water-related ecosystem services (WRESs) received by the people from 2010 to 2020 in the Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park (HTRNP). The study focused on water yield, soil conservation, and water purification using InVEST, the SCS-CNGIS model, and spatial analysis. The results show (1) significant land cover changes within the HTRNP, as forest decreased by 4433 ha and water bodies increased by 4047 ha, indicating the active presence of human activities. However, land cover changes were more pronounced within the 5 km buffer area around the HTRNP, suggesting the effectiveness of the tropical rainforest conservation efforts in place. (2) The water yield of the HTRNP in the years studied decreased by 307.03 km3, based on the water yields in 2010 and 2020, which were 5625.7 km3 and 5318.7 km3, respectively. (3) Change detection showed that runoff mitigation in the rainforest has a negative mean (−0.21), indicating a slight overall decrease in soil conservation and runoff mitigation in the rainforest from 2010 to 2020; however, the higher curve number indicates areas susceptible to surface runoff. (4) The ecological effectiveness of water purification to absorb and reduce nitrogen load was better in 2020 (145,529 kg/year), as it was reduced from 506,739 kg/year in 2010, indicating improved water quality. (5) Population growth is more pronounced in areas with high water yields. Overall, the proposed framework has shown that the water yield potential of the HTRNP can meet the water consumption demands of people and industries situated within the buffer area. However, analysis of the study shows that it does not meet the crop water requirements. This study provides insights for decision makers in identifying potential beneficiaries and the essence of effective area-based conservation measures, and the proposed framework can be applied to any area of interest, offering a different approach in ecosystem services assessment.

Identifying Changes and Their Drivers in Paddy Fields of Northeast China: Past and Future

Northeast China plays a crucial role as a major grain-producing region, and attention to its land use and land cover changes (LUCC), especially farmland changes, are crucial to ensure food security and promote sustainable development. Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data and a decision tree model, land types, especially those of paddy fields in Northeast China from 2000 to 2020, were extracted, and the spatiotemporal changes in paddy fields and their drivers were analyzed. The development trends of paddy fields under different future scenarios were explored alongside the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) data. The findings revealed that the kappa coefficients of land use classification from 2000 to 2020 reached 0.761–0.825, with an overall accuracy of 80.5–87.3%. The proposed land classification method can be used for long-term paddy field monitoring in Northeast China. The LUCC in Northeast China is dominated by the expansion of paddy fields. The centroids of paddy fields gradually shifted toward the northeast by a distance of 292 km, with climate warming being the main reason for the shift. Under various climate scenarios, the temperature in Northeast China and its surrounding regions is projected to rise. Each scenario is anticipated to meet the temperature conditions necessary for the northeastward expansion of paddy fields. This study provides support for ensuring sustainable agricultural development in Northeast China.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Growth and PM2.5 Concentrations in Sylhet, Bangladesh

Environmental impacts of urbanization, such as increased air pollution, pose significant challenges for developing countries. This study examines land cover changes and their relationship with particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) concentrations in two upazilas of Bangladesh from 2001 to 2019 using GIS and remote sensing techniques. Results show significant urban expansion (i.e., increase in built-up area) in both upazilas, corresponding with increasing PM2.5 levels. Linear regression reveals correlations between land cover types and PM2.5 levels. Mixed forests and waterbodies tend to be negatively associated with PM2.5 concentrations; on the other hand, built-up and barren land show a positive correlation with PM2.5. The most significant increase in built-up land and PM2.5 was in Madhabpur, indicating urgent environmental and health issues. This study emphasizes the critical role of sustainable urban planning and environmental conservation in mitigating urbanization’s adverse effects on air quality, advocating for preserving natural landscapes to maintain ecological balance, protecting urban health, and providing policymakers with insights to develop strategies addressing urban expansion and air pollution.

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Patterns of 8-Day 30m Evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia and Its Response to Land Cover Changes

Temporal and Spatial Evolution Patterns of 8-Day 30m Evapotranspiration in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia and Its Response to Land Cover Changes

Dam Siltation in the Mediterranean Region Under Climate Change: A Case Study of Ahmed El Hansali Dam, Morocco

Dams are vital for irrigation, power generation, and domestic water needs, but siltation poses a significant challenge, especially in areas prone to water erosion, potentially shortening a dam’s lifespan. The Ahmed El Hansali Dam in Morocco faces heightened siltation due to its upstream region being susceptible to erosion-prone rocks and high runoff. This study estimates the siltation at the dam from its construction up to 2014 using bathymetric data and the Brown model, which is a widely-used empirical model that calculates reservoir trap efficiency. Additionally, the study evaluates the impact of Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes and projected future rainfall until around 2076 based on siltation rates. The results indicate that changes in LULC, particularly temporal variations in precipitation, have a significant impact on the siltation of the Ahmed El Hansali dam. Notably, rainfall is strongly correlated with the siltation rate, with an R2 of 0.92. The efficiency of sediment trapping (TE) is 97.64%, meaning that 97.64% of the sediment in the catchment area is trapped or deposited at the bottom of the dam. The estimated annual specific sediment yield is about 32,345.79 tons/km2/yr, and the sediment accumulation rate is approximately 4.75 Mm3/yr. The dam’s half-life is estimated to be around 2076, but future precipitation projections may extend this timeframe due to the strong correlation between siltation and precipitation. Additionally, soil erosion driven by land management practices plays a crucial role in future siltation dynamics. Hence, this study offers a comprehensive assessment of the siltation dynamics at the Ahmed El Hansali dam, providing essential information on the long-term effects of erosion, land use changes, and climate projections. These findings may assist decision makers in managing dam reservoir sedimentation more effectively, ensuring the durability of the dam and extending the reservoir life.

Broad-scale predictions of herpetofauna occupancy and colonization in an agriculturally dominated landscape.

Predictions of species occurrence allow land managers to focus conservation efforts on locations where species are most likely to occur. Such analyses are rare for herpetofauna compared to other taxa, despite increasing evidence that herptile populations are declining because of landcover change and habitat fragmentation. Our objective was to create predictions of occupancy and colonization probabilities for 15 herptiles of greatest conservation need in Iowa. From 2006-2014, we surveyed 295 properties throughout Iowa for herptile presence using timed visual-encounter surveys, coverboards, and aquatic traps. Data were analyzed using robust design occupancy modeling with landscape-level covariates. Occupancy ranged from 0.01 (95% CI = -0.01, 0.03) for prairie ringneck snake (Diadophis punctatus arnyi) to 0.90 (95% CI = 0.898, 0.904) for northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens). Occupancy for most species correlated to landscape features at the 1-km scale. General patterns of species' occupancy included negative effects of agricultural features and positive effects of water features on turtles and frogs. Colonization probabilities ranged from 0.007 (95% CI = 0.006, 0.008) for spiny softshell turtle (Apalone spinifera) to 0.82 (95% CI = 0.62, 1.0) for western fox snake (Pantherophis ramspotti). Colonization probabilities for most species were best explained by effects of water and grassland landscape features. Predictive models had strong support (AUC > 0.70) for six out of 15 species (40%), including all three turtles studied. Our results provide estimates of occupancy and colonization probabilities and spatial predictions of occurrence for herptiles of greatest conservation need across the state of Iowa.

Predictive Modelling of Land Cover Changes in the Greater Amanzule Peatlands Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing and Machine Learning Techniques

The Greater Amanzule Peatlands (GAP) in Ghana is an important biodiversity hotspot facing increasing pressure from anthropogenic land-use activities driven by rapid agricultural plantation expansion, urbanisation, and the burgeoning oil and gas industry. Accurate measurement of how these pressures alter land cover over time, along with the projection of future changes, is crucial for sustainable management. This study aims to analyse these changes from 2010 to 2020 and predict future scenarios up to 2040 using multi-source remote sensing and machine learning techniques. Optical, radar, and topographical remote sensing data from Landsat-7, Landsat-8, ALOS/PALSAR, and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission derived digital elevation models (DEMs) were integrated to perform land cover change analysis using Random Forest (RF), while Cellular Automata Artificial Neural Networks (CA-ANNs) were employed for predictive modelling. The classification model achieved overall accuracies of 93% in 2010 and 94% in both 2015 and 2020, with weighted F1 scores of 80.0%, 75.8%, and 75.7%, respectively. Validation of the predictive model yielded a Kappa value of 0.70, with an overall accuracy rate of 80%, ensuring reliable spatial predictions of future land cover dynamics. Findings reveal a 12% expansion in peatland cover, equivalent to approximately 6570 ± 308.59 hectares, despite declines in specific peatland types. Concurrently, anthropogenic land uses have increased, evidenced by an 85% rise in rubber plantations (from 30,530 ± 110.96 hectares to 56,617 ± 220.90 hectares) and a 6% reduction in natural forest cover (5965 ± 353.72 hectares). Sparse vegetation, including smallholder farms, decreased by 35% from 45,064 ± 163.79 hectares to 29,424 ± 114.81 hectares. Projections for 2030 and 2040 indicate minimal changes based on current trends; however, they do not consider potential impacts from climate change, large-scale development projects, and demographic shifts, necessitating cautious interpretation. The results highlight areas of stability and vulnerability within the understudied GAP region, offering critical insights for developing targeted conservation strategies. Additionally, the methodological framework, which combines optical, radar, and topographical data with machine learning, provides a robust approach for accurate and detailed landscape-scale monitoring of tropical peatlands that is applicable to other regions facing similar environmental challenges.

A 28-time-point cropland area change dataset in Northeast China from 1000 to 2020

Abstract. Based on historical documents, population data, published results, remote sensing data products, statistical data, and survey data, this study reconstructed the cropland area and the spatial pattern changes at 28 time points from 1000 to 2020 in Northeast China. The period from 1000 to 1600 corresponds to historical provincial-level administrative districts, while the period from 1700 to 2020 corresponds to modern county-level administrative districts. The main findings are as follows: (1) the cropland in Northeast China exhibited phase changes of expansion–reduction–expansion over the past millennium. (2) The cropland area in Northeast China increased from 0.55×104 km2 in 1000 to 37.90×104 km2 in 2020, and the average cropland fraction increased from 0.37 % to 26.27 %; (3) from 1000 to 1200, the cropland area exhibited an increasing trend, which peaked in 1200. The scope of land reclamation was comparable to modern times, but the overall cropland fraction remained low. The cropland area significantly decreased between 1300 and 1600, with the main land reclamation area being reduced southward into Liaoning province. From 1700 to 1850, the cropland area increased slowly and the agricultural reclamation gradually expanded northward. After 1850, there was almost exponential growth, with the cropland area continuously expanding to the whole study area, and this growth trend persists until 2020; (4) the dataset of changes in the cropland of administrative districts in Northeast China, reconstructed based on multiple data sources and improved historical cropland reconstruction methods, significantly enhances time resolution and reliability. Additionally, the dataset shows relatively better credibility assessment results, which can provide a refined database for historical land use and land cover change (LUCC) dataset reconstruction, carbon emission estimation, climate data construction, etc. The dataset can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.25450468.v2 (Jia et al., 2024).

Urban Heat Island and Environmental Degradation Analysis Utilizing a Remote Sensing Technique in Rapidly Urbanizing South Asian Cities

Rapid urbanization in South Asian cities has triggered significant changes in land use and land cover (LULC), degrading natural biophysical components and intensifying urban heat islands (UHIs). This study investigated the impact of LULC changes on land surface temperature (LST) and the role of biophysical indicators in enhancing urban resilience to thermal extremes. We used Landsat satellite imageries from 1993 to 2023, conducted a comprehensive analysis of LULC changes, and estimated LST variations at 6-year intervals in the Dhaka, Gazipur, and Narayanganj districts in Bangladesh. Afterward, we performed statistical analysis upon employing correlation, regression, and principal component analysis (PCA) techniques to summarize information. The results reveal that 339.13 km2 worth of urban expansion has occurred in last 30 years, with an average annual growth rate of 3.5%, accompanied by a substantial reduction in water bodies (−139.17 km2) and vegetation cover. Consequently, summer temperatures exceeded approximately 36.52 °C in dense urban areas. Also, the results highlighted the strong influence of built-up areas (BSI and SAVI) on LST, while vegetation (NDVI) and water indices (NDWI) exhibited a negative association. The findings emphasize the urgency of integrating green infrastructure and deploying sustainable urban planning policies to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of scattered urbanization in the face of climate change.

Assessment of dyna clue model for prediction of spatio-temporal dynamics of urbanisation and green space in Jaipur district, Rajasthan (India)

Urbanisation in Jaipur, Rajasthan’s capital, has significantly impacted land use and land cover (LULC) over the past four decades. This study addresses the pressing issue of how rapid urban expansion affects green spaces and environmental balance. Utilizing satellite imagery and a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, LULC maps for 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023 were generated to analyze changes in land cover, including agriculture, barren land, built-up areas, vegetation, wasteland, fallow land, and water bodies. The Dyna-CLUE model, incorporating variables such as elevation, slope, aspect, and proximity to streams and roads, was employed to forecast LULC changes for 2033 and 2043. The findings reveal a marked increase in built-up areas at the expense of vegetative cover, driven by urbanization, infrastructural development, agricultural expansion, climate change, and policy decisions. With Kappa coefficients indicating high agreement between classified land cover and ground truth data (84–90% accuracy), the study projects continued urban growth and further decline in vegetation. This underscores the urgent need for sustainable land use planning and environmental conservation in Jaipur. Proposed strategies to address these issues include establishing ecological zones, enforcing green building regulations, promoting mixed-use development, and implementing a 15-min green space policy. These measures aim to enhance green space distribution and support Jaipur’s transition towards a greener urban environment.

EVALUACIÓN DEL IMPACTO DE LOS CAMBIOS EN EL USO Y COBERTURA DE LA TIERRA EN EL ESCURRIMIENTO SUPERFICIAL

The aim of this study was to analyze the behavior of surface runoff as a result of changes in land use and land cover (LULC), using the Rio Novo basin (Brazil) as the analysis site. To estimate surface runoff, the curve number (NRCS-CN) method was used; as input data, the LULC classifications provided by the MapBiomas project and the pedological map of the state of São Paulo (1:250,000) were used. The Rio Novo basin was discretized into ten sub-basins. The results showed major changes in LULC between 1992 and 2022, with a reduction in pasture areas and an increase in annual crops and sugarcane fields, as well as in urban areas. Such alterations are conditioning factors of changes in Curve Number (CN) values, which imply changes in surface runoff values. For a rainfall of 130 mm (roughly 10-year return period), the surface runoff depth values ranged from 3.21 mm (areas with forest cover on soils in hydrological group A) to 101.35 mm (for urban areas on soils in hydrological group C). The urbanization process that occurred in sub-basins 1, 6, and 9 led to an increase in areas with the highest CN values (CN equal to 85 and 90). Locations with increased surface runoff values should be considered as critical areas, where soil and water losses may occur, thereby compromising water security in the basin. Keywords: NRSC-CN method, Geographic Information System, Water Resources Management, MapBiomas.