Changes In Soil Erosion Research Articles

Use of a 137Cs re-sampling technique to investigate temporal changes in soil erosion and sediment mobilisation for a small forested catchment in southern Italy

Soil erosion and both its on-site and off-site impacts are increasingly seen as a serious environmental problem across the world. The need for an improved evidence base on soil loss and soil redistribution rates has directed attention to the use of fallout radionuclides, and particularly 137Cs, for documenting soil redistribution rates. This approach possesses important advantages over more traditional means of documenting soil erosion and soil redistribution. However, one key limitation of the approach is the time-averaged or lumped nature of the estimated erosion rates. In nearly all cases, these will relate to the period extending from the main period of bomb fallout to the time of sampling. Increasing concern for the impact of global change, particularly that related to changing land use and climate change, has frequently directed attention to the need to document changes in soil redistribution rates within this period. Re-sampling techniques, which should be distinguished from repeat-sampling techniques, have the potential to meet this requirement. As an example, the use of a re-sampling technique to derive estimates of the mean annual net soil loss from a small (1.38 ha) forested catchment in southern Italy is reported. The catchment was originally sampled in 1998 and samples were collected from points very close to the original sampling points again in 2013. This made it possible to compare the estimate of mean annual erosion for the period 1954–1998 with that for the period 1999–2013. The availability of measurements of sediment yield from the catchment for parts of the overall period made it possible to compare the results provided by the 137Cs re-sampling study with the estimates of sediment yield for the same periods. In order to compare the estimates of soil loss and sediment yield for the two different periods, it was necessary to establish the uncertainty associated with the individual estimates. In the absence of a generally accepted procedure for such calculations, key factors influencing the uncertainty of the estimates were identified and a procedure developed. The results of the study demonstrated that there had been no significant change in mean annual soil loss in recent years and this was consistent with the information provided by the estimates of sediment yield from the catchment for the same periods. The study demonstrates the potential for using a re-sampling technique to document recent changes in soil redistribution rates.

Impact of Climate Change on Future Soil Erosion in Different Slope, Land Use, and Soil-Type Conditions in a Part of the Narmada River Basin, India

Soil erosion is one of the major hazards affected by the climate change, particularly the changed precipitation trend. The present paper has generated future precipitation by downscaling general circulation model (GCM, HADCM3) data of A2 scenario in a part of the Narmada River Basin in Madhya Pradesh, India, to obtain future impact of climate change on soil erosion. Least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) models were used for downscaling, and the universal soil loss equation (USLE) model was used for estimating soil loss. The results were analyzed with different slope, land use, and soil category. Outcome showed an increase in future precipitation with the resultant increase in soil erosion, with a positive change of 18.09 and 58.9% in years 2050s and 2080s respectively in LS-SVM, while it is decreasing in the year 2020s (−5.47%). Rate of change of soil erosion with SDSM is 15.52 and 105.80% in years 2050s and 2080s respectively, and decrease in the 2020s (−8.51%). The soil erosion rate is more in steep slopes (73.04 t/ha/year current rate) than in less slope (3.01 t/ha/year at current rate) regions. Waste land type of land use (15.15 t/ha/year at current rate), and sandy loam (25.45 t/ha/year at current rate) and sandy clay loam (23.03 t/ha/year at current rate) soil types, give a higher rate of erosion than other land use and soil types.

Linking forest cover, soil erosion and mire hydrology to late-Holocene human activity and climate in NW Spain

Forest clearance is one of the main drivers of soil erosion and hydrological changes in mires, although climate may also play a significant role. Because of the wide range of factors involved, understanding these complex links requires long-term multi-proxy approaches and research on the best proxies to focus. A peat core from NW Spain (Cruz do Bocelo mire), spanning the last ~3000 years, has been studied at high resolution by physical (density and loss on ignition (LOI)), geochemical (elemental composition) and palynological (pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs) analyses. Proxies related to mineral matter fluxes from the catchment (lithogenic tracers, Glomus and Entorrhiza), rainfall (Bromine), mire hydrology (HdV-18), human pressure ( Cerealia-type, nitrophilous taxa and coprophilous fungi) and forest cover (mesophilous tree taxa) were the most useful to reconstruct the evolution of the mire and its catchment. Forest clearance for farming was one of the main drivers of environmental change from at least the local Iron Age (~2685 cal. yr BP) onwards. The most intense phase of deforestation occurred during Roman and Germanic times and the late Middle Ages. During these phases, the entire catchment was affected, resulting in enhanced soil erosion and severe hydrological modifications of the mire. Climate, especially rainfall, may have also accelerated these processes during wetter periods. However, it is noteworthy that the hydrology of the mire seems to have been insensitive to rainfall variations when mesophilous forest dominated. Abrupt changes were only detected once intense forest clearance commenced during the Iron Age/Roman transition (~2190 cal. yr BP) phase, which represented a tipping point in catchment’s ability to buffer impacts. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of studying ecosystems’ long-term trajectories and catchment-wide processes when implementing mire habitat protection measures.

Remote sensing monitoring on soil erosion based on LUCC in Beijing mountain areas

The eco-environmental problems caused by land use and land cover change have been a severe block to regional sustainable development in the Beijing mountain areas. In this study, two temporal Landsat TM images in 2002 and 2009 were used, the soil erosion factors included vegetation coverage, slope and land use were calculated. The soil erosion degree was divided into six levels, micro, mild, moderate, strong, intensive and severe. The raster data with 30 m × 30 m pixels small-class of the soil erosion map was used to extract soil erosion information. This thesis evaluated soil erosion dynamic in Beijing mountain areas based on land use and land cover change with the combination of technologies and methodologies of multi-temporal satellite remote sensing, GIS and field investigation. The soil erosion change and their driving forces were analysed. The results showed micro and mild soil erosion mainly existed in the Beijing mountain areas. The moderate erosion emerged in the areas with both slope and poor vegetation cover. The strong, intensive and severe soil erosion were rare but distributed in mountainous areas in Huairou, Miyun, and Mentougou. The soil erosion situation has improved markedly due to environment management from 2002 to 2009.

Model‐Based Characterization and Monitoring of Runoff and Soil Erosion in Response to Land Use/land Cover Changes in the Modjo Watershed, Ethiopia

AbstractThe Modjo watershed has experienced significant land use/land cover (LULC) change and soil erosion. This study examines changes in surface runoff generation and soil erosion in response to the LULC dynamics. To simulate runoff and sediment yield, the geographic information system‐interfaced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used. Model sensitivity, calibration and validation analyses were carried out, and the efficiency of the model was evaluated using simulated and measured discharge data. The two scenario model simulation goodness‐of‐fit measures verified that the SWAT model performed very well during calibration and validation periods for daily and monthly time steps (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency > 0·79 and root mean square error–observation standard deviation ratio < 0·4). Although the computed values of per cent bias fulfilled a satisfactory standard (greater than −11·8%), the model results tended to overestimate discharge. Consequent to the LULC change, an overall increase in the amount of surface runoff (14·2%) and sediment yield (37%) was observed relative to the baseline (1973) simulation scenario. Mean annual soil loss rate was estimated at 24·2 Mg ha−1 y−1. Nearly 95·2% of the watershed is experiencing moderate to severe soil loss rates ranging from 14·7 to 37·5 Mg ha−1 y−1. In the remaining parts of the watershed, soil loss rates range from 4·4 to 14·7 Mg ha−1 y−1. Surface runoff generation and soil erosion varied widely by soil, LULC types and slope positions. The observed environmental change would lead to further land degradation, with negative implications on the livelihoods of local people unless appropriate conservation measures are implemented. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Soil erosion evaluation and prediction approach using <sup>137</sup>Cs,RS,and GIS in Xiaojiang River basin of China

It is difficult to evaluate and predict soil erosion and its related effects in mountainous areas without sufficient observation data． This study aimed to estimate and predict changes in soil erosion using 137Cs，ＲS，and GIS techniques and propose an a pproach for soil erosion evaluation in mountainous areas． Using the erosion modulus calculating models based on 137Cs concentration， the annual average soil erosion modulus of forest lands，shrub lands，grasslands，farmlands，and uncovered land were obtained． The values were 356—1531 t /( km2·a) ，330—1709 t /( km2·a) ，886—3885 t /( km2·a) ，5197—12454 t /( km2·a) ， and more than 1 5000 t /( km2·a) ，respectively． Then，erosion zoning was done by combining erosion rates and land use data by interpreting remote sense images from 1987 ( Landsat TM) ，1995 ( Landsat TM) ，and 2005 ( Landsat ETM) ，and these were overlaid with 1∶ 50000 DEM data． The results showed that the eroded land changed very little from 1987 to 2005，accounting for about 66%—67． 3% of the total; however，the erosion intensity significantly rose from 1987 to 1995，up to 30% for some land use types． The eroded land， with the erosion modulus of 2500—5000 t /( km2·a) ， 5000—8000 t /( km2·a) ， and 8000— 15000 t /( km2·a) rise 30%，23%，and 26%，respectively． The soil erosion amount in the Xiaojiang Ｒiver basin was 7． 51 × 106 t / a，8． 19 × 106 t /a，and 8． 18 × 106 t /a in 1987，1995，and 2005，r espectively． Moreover，the zoning and amount of soil erosion for 2015 was predicted using a Markov-Cellar A utomata Model，which was established using the data from 1995 and 2005． The predicted result，8． 17 × 106 t /a，was very similar to that from 2005． This study provides a valuable solution to evaluate and predict soil erosion for mountainous areas in southwest China．

A 7000-year record of environmental change, including early farming impact, based on lake-sediment geochemistry and pollen data from County Sligo, western Ireland

Detailed, chronologically tightly constrained, lake-sediment-based geochemical and pollen records have enabled local changes in soil erosion, woodland cover and composition, and prehistoric farming impact to be reconstructed in considerable detail. The profile opens shortly after 7800BC when tall canopy trees were well-established and presumably in equilibrium with their environment. A distinct perturbation that involved an increase in pine and birch, a decrease in oak and a minor opening-up of the woodland is regarded as the local expression of the 8.2ka climate anomaly. Lack of response in the geochemical erosional indicators is interpreted as evidence for drier conditions. A short-lived, over-compensation in climate recovery followed the 8.2ka event. Neolithic farming impact is clearly expressed in both the pollen and geochemical data. Both datasets indicate that Neolithic impact was concentrated in the early Neolithic (3715–3440BC). In the interval 3000–2700BC there appears to have been a break in farming activity. The pollen data suggest substantially increased farming impact (both arable and pastoral) in the Bronze Age, with maximum farming and woodland clearances taking place in the late Bronze Age (1155–935BC). These developments are poorly expressed in the geochemical record, possibly due to within-lake changes.

Using fluidized bed and flume experiments to quantify cohesion development from aging and drainage

ABSTRACTTemporal variations in soil erosion resistance are often the result of decreased soil cohesion due to physical disruption followed by a regain of soil strength through a process called aging, stabilization or consolidation. The goal of this study was to quantify changes in soil cohesion due to aging and subsurface hydrologic condition using a fluidized bed method. A flume experiment was also used to verify that findings from the fluidized bed experiment translated into measurable changes in soil erodibility. Tests were performed on three different soils (a Miami soil, a Cecil soil and Crosby–Miami soil complex). Changes in soil cohesion due to aging and drainage state were successfully detected by the fluidized bed technique. For all soils tested, cohesion developed in a two‐stage process where an increase in cohesion with aging duration immediately after the soil was rewetted, was followed by a decrease in cohesion which often started after 24 h of aging. When soils were aged at field capacity, the resulting cohesion measured by the fluidized bed method was on average 3.13 times higher than that measured when aging was performed at saturation. Trends in soil rill erodibility Kr with aging duration measured in the flume experiment were consistent with the two‐stage pattern observed in soil cohesion estimates but the legacy effect of suction applied at field capacity faded after 72 h of aging. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SOIL EROSION, CONSERVATION, AND ECO‐ENVIRONMENT CHANGES IN THE LOESS PLATEAU OF CHINA

ABSTRACTAs one of the best‐known areas in the world, the Loess Plateau, has long been suffering from serious soil erosion. The present paper reviewed the historical variation of climate, vegetation cover, and environment changes in order to understand the causes of severe soil erosion. Documentary evidence indicated that climate changes and vegetation cover were the dominant natural factors influencing the soil erosion rates during the Holocene. Intensive human activities consisting of warfare, population growth, deforestation, and soil and water conservation measures were responsible for the changes of soil erosion during the anthropogenic period. Spatial and temporal changes of specific sediment yields presented significant decrease within the last several decades, which resulted from decreasing rainfall, large scale soil and water conservation measures, agricultural irrigation, and reservoir construction. Different phase of soil conservation measures demonstrated the development of policies and techniques on soil erosion control. Effective strategies of soil and water conservation, consisting of terracing, afforestation, natural rehabilitation, and check‐dams construction, were carried out on the Loess Plateau during the past six decades. The progress of soil conservation measures confirmed that the check‐dams systems might be suitable for Loess hilly Plateau, and natural vegetation rehabilitation is the best way for soil erosion control and should be implemented in other regions with emphasis of improving the quality of conservation measures based on natural rehabilitation. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

GIS-based lake sediment budget estimation taking into consideration land use change in an urbanizing catchment area

The objective of this study was to assess the lake sediment budget of land use changes using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE), sediment delivery ratio (SDR), and trap efficiency (TE). The geographic information system was combined with the USLE to estimate the soil erosion of the Lake Asan watershed. Spatial data for each of the USLE factors were obtained from the land use, soil, and 1/25,000 scale digital contour maps. Landsat-5 TM images were selected for analyzing soil erosion changes due to land use changes. The sediment yield to Lake Asan was estimated using the SDR and TE. The estimated sediment budget was compared with observed data from the Lake Asan watershed between 1974 and 2003. The total estimated annual mean sediment budgets from Lake Asan in 1986, 1992, and 2000 were 0.267, 0.301, and 0.339 × 106 ton, respectively, with an average of 0.302 × 106 ton. The average measured sediment budget was 3.15 × 106 ton year−1. The average estimated value shows reasonable agreement with the observed sediment balance. The average estimated and measured sediment budgets contain uncertainties due to both the methods and the approach used by the observers. The simulated results indicated that soil erosion in the Lake Asan watershed increased at a rate of approximately 2 % per year from 1986 to 2000 due to land use change. This study may be useful for managers to identify reservoir rehabilitation management methods for stable irrigation water supply.

Effects of land use changes on soil erosion in a fast developing area

Land use changes extensively affect soil erosion, which is a great environmental concern. To evaluate the effect of land use change on soil erosion in fast economic developing areas, we studied land use changes of Guangdong, China, from 2002 to 2009 using remote sensing and estimated soil erosion using the Universal Soil Loss Equation. We calculated the areas and percentage of each land use type under different erosion intensity and analyzed soil erosion changes caused by transitions of land use types. In addition, the impact of land use change on soil erosion in different river catchments was studied. Our results show that forest and wasteland land conversions induce substantial soil erosion, while transition from wasteland to forest retards soil loss. This suggests that vegetation cover changes significantly influence soil erosion. Any conversion to wasteland causes soil erosion, whereas expansion of forests and orchards mitigates it. The most significant increase in soil erosion from 2002 to 2009 was found in the Beijiang catchment corresponding to the transition from forest/orchard to built-up and wasteland. Soil erosion in the Xijiang catchment accelerated in this period due to the enormous reduction in orchard land. In Hanjiang catchment, erosion was alleviated and vegetation coverage greatly expanded owing to considerable transitions from wasteland and cropland to orchards. Field investigations validated our estimations and proved the applicability of this method. Measures including protecting vegetation, strict control of mining as well as reasonable urban planning should be taken to prevent successive soil erosion.

Soil Erosion Assessment in Kondoa Eroded Area in Tanzania using Universal Soil Loss Equation, Geographic Information Systems and Socioeconomic Approach

AbstractSoil conservation measures including cutoff drains, tree planting, Crops diversifications and destocking were implemented in Kondoa eroded area (KEA) for decades. This study assessed soil erosion changes in KEA and examined drivers of changes using Universal Soil Loss Equation, Geographic Information Systems and socioeconomic survey. Soil erosion was predicted by using data on soil, digital elevation model, rainfall and land use/cover visually interpreted from multitemporal satellite imageries. The predicted average soil erosions were 14·7, 23 and 15.7 Mg ha−1y−1 during 1973, 1986 and 2008, respectively. The area under very high soil erosion severity that was 30% in 1973, 26% in 1986 and 25% in 2008, whereas the area with high erosion severity was 26% in 1973 changed into 49% in 1986 and 2008 indicating recent stabilization. The area with moderate erosion increased from 15%, 16% and 18% during the same period. Field survey confirms a decrease of soil erosion in KEA compared with the past showing better soil conservation. Age of farmers, long‐term adoption of conservation practices and on‐farm tree planting were found to be the major factors contributing toward reduced soil erosion. Major limitations in soil conservation were poor mainstreaming of conservation activities on local production systems and lack of institutions promoting conservation at the community level. The study concluded that long‐term conservation investment for restoration, protection and socioeconomic support contributes significantly in land rehabilitation in KEA. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparative assessment of erosion and deposition rates on cultivated land in the Transylvanian Plain of Romania using 137Cs and 210Pbex

Soil erosion and sedimentation are natural landscape forming processes. However, they can be accelerated by human activities and therefore increase negative impacts on agricultural production as well as disturbing watershed management. Romania currently faces major environmental challenges and pressure on soil and water resources due to unsustainable farming practices and inappropriate tillage practices. The present work represents the first attempt to test the combined use of radionuclide approaches (i.e. 137Cs and 210Pbex) to quantify soil erosion changes in cultivated Transylvanian fields (Romania) at different temporal scales. Fourteen soil cores were collected along two transects in a cultivated field and two reference sites were selected to establish the mean reference inventories for both 137Cs and 210Pbex. A value of 5460 ± 880 Bq m−2 (n = 10; CV = 16%) was determined for the 137Cs mean reference inventory for both sites, given as areal activity ± standard deviation, at 2σ confidence interval. As regarding 210Pbex reference inventory, its value (9640 Bq m−2) is only given by the areal activity of one soil core from the second site. The high erosion rates obtained with the 210Pbex approach are an effect of the up and down ploughing practices which took place at the time of the local agricultural cooperative starting in the late 1950s. The middle-term redistribution rates provided by the 137Cs technique highlighted preponderant deposition processes in the field investigated, reflecting the changes in the cultivation system with ploughing across the slope at the beginning of 1990s.

Implications of biofuel policy‐driven land cover change for rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in the United States

AbstractLarge‐scale conversion of traditional agricultural cropping systems to biofuel cropping systems is predicted to have significant impact on the hydrologic cycle. Changes in the hydrologic cycle lead to changes in rainfall and its erosive power, and consequently soil erosion that will have onsite impacts on soil quality and crop productivity, and offsite impacts on water quality and quantity. We examine regional change in rainfall erosivity and soil erosion resulting from biofuel policy‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) change. Regional climate is simulated under current and biofuel LULC scenarios for the period 1979–2004 using the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model coupled to the NOAH land surface model. The magnitude of change in rainfall erosivity under the biofuel scenario is 1.5–3 times higher than the change in total annual rainfall. Over most of the conterminous United States (~56%), the magnitude of the change in erosivity is between −2.5% and +2.5%. A decrease in erosivity of magnitude 2.5–10% is predicted over 23% of the area, whereas an increase of the same magnitude is predicted over 14% of the area. Corresponding to the changes in rainfall erosivity and crop cover, a decrease in soil loss is predicted over 60% of the area under the biofuel scenario. In Kansas and Oklahoma, the states in which a large fraction of land area is planted with switchgrass under the biofuel scenario, soil loss is estimated to decrease 12% relative to the baseline. This reduction in soil loss is due more to changes in the crop cover factor than changes in rainfall or rainfall erosivity. This indicates that the changes in LULC, due to future cellulosic biofuel feedstock production, can have significant implications for regional soil and water resources in the United States and we recommend detailed investigation of the trade‐offs between land use and management options.

Dynamic Monitoring of Plant Cover and Soil Erosion Using Remote Sensing, Mathematical Modeling, Computer Simulation and GIS Techniques

Dynamic monitoring of plant cover and soil erosion often uses remote sensing data, especially for estimating the plant cover rate (vegetation coverage) by vegetation index. However, the latter is influenced by atmospheric effects and methods for correcting them are still imperfect and disputed. This research supposed and practiced an indirect, fast, and operational method to conduct atmospheric correction of images for getting comparable vegetation index values in different times. It tries to find a variable free from atmospheric effects, e.g., the mean vegetation coverage value of the whole study area, as a basis to reduce atmospheric correction parameters by establishing mathematical models and conducting simulation calculations. Using these parameters, the images can be atmospherically corrected. And then, the vegetation index and corresponding vegetation coverage values for all pixels, the vegetation coverage maps and coverage grade maps for different years were calculated, i.e., the plant cover monitoring was realized. Using the vegetation coverage grade maps and the ground slope grade map from a DEM to generate soil erosion grade maps for different years, the soil erosion monitoring was also realized. The results show that in the study area the vegetation coverage was the lowest in 1976, much better in 1989, but a bit worse again in 2001. Towards the soil erosion, it had been mitigated continuously from 1976 to 1989 and then to 2001. It is interesting that a little decrease of vegetation coverage from 1989 to 2001 did not lead to increase of soil erosion. The reason is that the decrease of vegetation coverage was chiefly caused by urbanization and thus mainly occurred in very gentle terrains, where soil erosion was naturally slight. The results clearly indicate the details of plant cover and soil erosion change in 25 years and also offer a scientific foundation for plant and soil conservation.

Impact of Land Cover Change on Soil Erosion Hazard in Northern Jordan Using Remote Sensing and GIS

Jordan is dominated by arid ecosystems that are vulnerable to human interventions and activities. It receives little rainfall with high intensity, which renders land degradation, soil erosion and desertification imminent threats of the ecosystem balance. Several changes in land cover have also occurred during the last decades. The above mentioned processes and changes can be mapped using remotely sensed satellite images and modeled in a Geographic Information System (GIS) environment. This study aims at assessing the impact of land cover change on the erosion in agricultural areas of northern Jordan. It was achieved by quantifying and analyzing the soil erosion in the study area between the years 1992 – 2009, and by comparing it with land cover changes. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was employed in a GIS environment to create soil erosion maps of the specific years using data from meteorological stations, soil surveys, topographic maps, Landsat satellite images and results of other relevant studies. The mean soil loss in the study area was 9.53 t/hr and 8.97 t/hr in 1992 and 2009 respectively. This was subsequently reclassified to erosion risk levels. By comparing the change of the erosion risk levels with the land cover change map of the study area using geographic overlay analysis, it was evident that the main reason for soil erosion change was the abandonment of rainfed crops and their conversion to rangelands. The differences in soil erosion risk between the two years were considerable indicating that changes in land cover affects significantly the soil erosion rate.

Wind tunnel simulation and evaluation of soil conservation function of alpine grassland in Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Aiming at studying soil conservation function of alpine grassland in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, this paper simulated soil erosion changes under different degrees of human disturbance in a wind tunnel laboratory. Three types of grasslands were selected, which include alpine meadow (QH-1), alpine steppe meadow (QH-2) and alpine steppe (QH-3), and the soil erosion rate was taken as the index to measure soil conservation function. The experimental results show that the soil erosion rates of three grassland samples increase with wind velocity under different treatments but the increment of erosion rate varied greatly. Under original status, soil erosion rates are in turn QH-1<QH-2<QH-3, which indicates that the soil conservation services are QH-1>QH-2>QH-3. When the aboveground vegetation was cut, the soil erosion rate change of QH-1 is the same as that of QH-3 and compared with the original status both of them changed a little. And when the root system was destroyed the erosion rates range in turn as QH-1<QH-2<QH-3. So the data suggest that soil conservation service for the three types of grasslands should be QH-1>QH-2>QH-3. The economic values of soil conservation were estimated, which include the values of organic carbon fixation, nutrient retention and reducing soil disuse.

Suspended sediment source areas and future climate impact on soil erosion and sediment yield in a New York City water supply watershed, USA

High suspended sediment loads and the resulting turbidity can impact the use of surface waters for water supply and other designated uses. Changes in fluvial sediment loads influence material fluxes, aquatic geochemistry, water quality, channel morphology, and aquatic habitats. Therefore, quantifying spatial and temporal patterns in sediment loads is important both for understanding and predicting soil erosion and sediment transport processes as well as watershed-scale management of sediment and associated pollutants. A case study from the 891km2 Cannonsville watershed, one of the major watersheds in the New York City water supply system is presented. The objective of this study was to apply Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Water Balance (SWAT-WB), a physically based semi-distributed model to identify suspended sediment generating source areas under current conditions and to simulate potential climate change impacts on soil erosion and suspended sediment yield in the study watershed for a set of future climate scenarios representative of the period 2081–2100. Future scenarios developed using nine global climate model (GCM) simulations indicate a sharp increase in the annual rates of soil erosion although a similar result in sediment yield at the watershed outlet was not evident. Future climate related changes in soil erosion and sediment yield appeared more significant in the winter due to a shift in the timing of snowmelt and also due to a decrease in the proportion of precipitation received as snow. Although an increase in future summer precipitation was predicted, soil erosion and sediment yield appeared to decrease owing to an increase in soil moisture deficit and a decrease in water yield due to increased evapotranspiration.

Predicting land use allocation in France: A spatial panel data analysis

Predictions of future land use areas are an important issue as land use patterns significantly impact environmental conditions (biodiversity, water pollution, soil erosion, and climate change) as well as economic and social welfare. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of aggregated land use share models, we propose in this paper a methodological contribution by controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. Our model is a land use shares model applied to aggregated data in France. Our dataset is a panel which covers both time series observations from 1992 to 2003 and cross-sectional observations by Département (equivalent to NUTS3 regions). We consider four land use classes: (1) agriculture, (2) forest, (3) urban and (4) other use. We investigate the relation between the areas in land in different alternative uses and economic and demographic factors influencing land use decisions. Based on the comparison of prediction accuracy of different model specifications, our findings are threefold: First, controlling for both unobserved individual heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation outperforms any other specification in which spatial autocorrelation and/or individual heterogeneity are ignored. Second, accounting for cross-equation correlations does not seem to improve the prediction performances and finally, ignoring individual heterogeneity introduces substantial loss in prediction accuracy.

Going Green versus Economic Performance

The purpose of this paper is to elucidate some information on what impact pro environmental actions have on countries’ global economic performances. Is there really a trade-off on a macro scale between “going green” and economic performance? The world economy has significantly expanded within the last four decades and started to exceed the Earth’s resources capacity. Many forms of environmental degeneration such as soil erosion, aquifer deficiency, rangeland deterioration, air pollution, and climate change have huge negative impact on the ecosystem. If the world continues to move in this direction, it will eventually destroy its natural support system. The long-term solution to this problem is to apply ecological principles of sustainable economic development. It is commonly known that factors such as decreasing CO2 emission, water maintenance, forestry and agriculture preservation as well as properly managed production processes help preserve our planet’s natural habitat and its climate, but how these activities are related to businesses? During 1960s and 1970s, organizations have mostly rejected their impact on the environment. However, after experiencing international ecological problems, countries came up with a variety of regulations to prevent further environment degradation. Many organizations were forced to accept the responsibility to protect the surroundings they were operating in. Therefore, prevailing assumption appeared that there is a fixed trade-off between ecology and economy. Social benefits that come from strict environmental regulations are placed versus private costs, which are spent for prevention and cleanup activities. Succeeding in one field has to result in other’s failure. In the last decade, however, this view has been increasingly challenged. Moreover, in recent years there has been an increasing advocacy towards a notion that turning green is actually good for the business and thus for the whole economy. By preserving natural resources and creating new quality of environmentally aware management systems, a given country increases its productivity. This in turn allows achieving higher production output given inputs in relation to its less environmentally aware neighbour. In order to check the validity of this theory we apply Bayesian frontier analysis to macroeconomic production function, and incorporate key environmental indicators as explanatory variables of productivity distribution. Our model is estimated based on data from 13 EU countries over the period of 1998-2007. The use of Bayesian inference allows us to check straightforward what explanatory power those indicators have on countries’ productive efficiency and thus on their economic performance. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.2.1546