Change In Social-ecological Systems Research Articles

Assessing spatiotemporal change in coral reef social-ecological systems.

Coral reef resilience is eroding at multiple spatial scales globally, with broad implications for coastal communities, and is thus a critical challenge for managing marine social-ecological systems (SESs). Many researchers believe that external stressors will cause key coral reefs to die by the end of the 21st century, virtually eliminating essential ecological and societal benefits. Here, we propose the use of resilience-based approaches to understand the dynamics of coral reef SESs and subsequent drivers of coral reef decline. Previous research has demonstrated the effectiveness of these methods, not only for tracking environmental change, but also for providing warning in advance of transitions, possibly allowing time for management interventions. The flexibility and utility of these methods make them ideal for assessing complex systems; however, they have not been used to study aquatic ecosystem dynamics at the global scale. Here, we evaluate these methods for examining spatiotemporal change in coral reef SESs across the global seascape and assess the subsequent impacts on coral reef resilience. We found that while univariate indicators failed to provide clear signals, multivariate resilience-based approaches effectively captured coral reef SES dynamics, unveiling distinctive patterns of variation throughout the global coral reef seascape. Additionally, our findings highlight global spatiotemporal variation, indicating patterns of degraded resilience. This degradation was reflected regionally, particularly in the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean SESs. These results underscore the utility of resilience-based approaches in assessing environmental change in SESs, detecting spatiotemporal variation at the global and regional scales, and facilitating more effective monitoring and management of coral reef SESs.

National environmental programs and local social-ecological system change in dryland China: implications for environmental governance

National environmental programs and local social-ecological system change in dryland China: implications for environmental governance

Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

Climate change is increasing the frequency and the severity of extreme events in river basins around the world. Efforts to build resilience to these impacts are complicated by the social–ecological interactions, cross-scale feedbacks, and diverse actor interests that influence the dynamics of change in social–ecological systems (SESs). In this study, we aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. To do so, we facilitated a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process structured by the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consistent narrative scenarios from a network of interacting drivers of change. Thus, we also aimed to explore the potential for the CIB method to surface diverse perspectives and drivers of change in SESs. We situated this process in the Red River Basin, a transboundary basin shared by the United States and Canada where significant natural climatic variability is worsened by climate change. The process generated 15 interacting drivers ranging from agricultural markets to ecological integrity, generating eight consistent scenarios that are robust to model uncertainty. The scenario analysis and the debrief workshop reveal important insights, including the transformative changes required to achieve desirable outcomes and the cornerstone role of Indigenous water rights. In sum, our analysis surfaced significant complexities surrounding efforts to build resilience and affirmed the potential for the CIB method to generate unique insights about the trajectory of SESs.

Delayed use of bioenergy crops might threaten climate and food security.

The potential of mitigation actions to limit global warming within 2 °C (ref. 1) might rely on the abundant supply of biomass for large-scale bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) that is assumed to scale up markedly in the future2-5. However, the detrimental effects of climate change on crop yields may reduce the capacity of BECCS and threaten food security6-8, thus creating an unrecognized positive feedback loop on global warming. We quantified the strength of this feedback by implementing the responses of crop yields to increases in growing-season temperature, atmospheric CO2 concentration and intensity of nitrogen (N) fertilization in a compact Earth system model9. Exceeding a threshold of climate change would cause transformative changes in social-ecological systems by jeopardizing climate stability and threatening food security. If global mitigation alongside large-scale BECCS is delayed to 2060 when global warming exceeds about 2.5 °C, then the yields of agricultural residues for BECCS would be too low to meet the Paris goal of 2 °C by 2200. This risk of failure is amplified by the sustained demand for food, leading to an expansion of cropland or intensification of N fertilization to compensate for climate-induced yield losses. Our findings thereby reinforce the urgency of early mitigation, preferably by 2040, to avoid irreversible climate change and serious food crises unless other negative-emission technologies become available in the near future to compensate for the reduced capacity of BECCS.

Quantifying drivers of change in social-ecological systems: land management impacts wildfire probability in forests of the western US

Quantifying drivers of change in social-ecological systems: land management impacts wildfire probability in forests of the western US

Tracking changes in social-ecological systems along environmental disturbances with the ocean health index

The well-being of coastal communities is intimately tied to a healthy ocean, but coastal social-ecological systems are among the most vulnerable to global change. Improving the resilience of coastal communities requires an understanding of how local social-ecological systems respond to shocks to better inform decision-making and adapt local management interventions. However, assessments of social-ecological changes throughout a disturbance regime are scarce at the local level, although critical for efficient natural resource management and sustainable use of ocean ecosystem services. Here, we apply the Ocean Health Index (OHI) to assess the status of the marine social-ecological system of a tropical island (Moorea, French Polynesia), and track changes of the system before, during and after a disturbance regime. Our results show that while there are signs of social-ecological recovery, coastal protection was most affected along the disturbance, and that there is room for improvement toward biodiversity conservation. In addition, our study highlights some context-specific challenges associated with local OHI assessments, particularly those driven by limited fisheries data and appropriate reference point selection for coastal protection. Our results demonstrate the value of localized, regular OHI assessments through time to track changes in marine social-ecological systems, while uncovering important data gaps, to inform management at appropriate scales for decision-making.

Assessing nature-based solutions for transformative change

Assessing nature-based solutions for transformative change

Mental models for assessing coastal social-ecological systems following disasters

Understanding abrupt change in social-ecological systems (SES), such as following major disasters, is key for restoration, adaptation, and sustainability. We describe an approach and case study using fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) and mental models to collectively represent local perceptions of Hurricane Irma in Key West, Florida. Using in-person FCM interviews, we sought to answer three overarching questions: 1) how did residents perceive SES relationships post-disaster, 2) how did these perceptions vary across three stakeholder groups consisting of those working in ocean recreation, resorts and inns, and non-tourism sectors, and 3) how did the aggregation of diverse opinions and perceptions affect the understanding of SES trade-offs regarding the coastal region’s resilience? Across all respondents, housing was the most commonly mentioned concept occurring in 39% of all models. Coral reefs were included in 71% of ocean recreation models, whereas tourism was included in 50% of resorts and inns models. While mangroves, seawalls, and beaches were rarely to never mentioned until prompted by the interviewer, scenario analyses revealed that shorelines play an important role in residents’ perceptions of how Hurricane Irma collectively impacted people and the environment. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the community, composed of a diverse representation of stakeholders, viewed core SES components similarly and trade-offs were acknowledged. Yet, different stakeholder groups perceived the SES in which they live in different ways, with each group perceiving greater damage to specific system components based on direct experience and knowledge. Our study demonstrates an approach for representing the collective perceptions of communities in post-disaster research, rebuilding, and restoration efforts.

A driver based framework for vulnerability assessment of the poverty stricken areas of Funiu Mountain, China

Social-ecological systems (SESs) are complex human-environment coupling systems (HECS) that operate at various spatiotemporal scales. In this study, we proposed the use of a ‘drivers–exposure–sensitivity–adaptability’ framework to explore spatiotemporal vulnerability and the factors influencing SESs in the poverty-stricken Funiu Mountain region in China. Indicators of different dimensions of vulnerability (drivers, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) were identified based on the proposed framework and previous studies. Data were obtained from the Resource and Environment Science Data Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (RESDC), meteorological monitoring stations, and statistical yearbooks. A vulnerability index was developed based on principal component analysis (PCA) by aggregating the information contained in the indicators. The results showed that the average vulnerability index values for SESs in the overall Funiu Mountain region were 0.536, 0.459, and 0.631 in 2007, 2012, and 2017, respectively, and indicated a zonal distribution from shallow mountainous areas to middle and deep mountainous areas. The findings indicate that biophysical factors shape the general spatial vulnerability pattern of SESs, while socioeconomic factors are the main drivers of changes in the SESs, and the intermediary role of regional centers against a background of economic globalization and regional economic integration can, to a certain extent, help to explain the changes in SESs in poverty-stricken areas.

Limited use of transformative adaptation in response to social-ecological shifts driven by climate change

Climate change is increasingly driving fundamental shifts in ecosystems, land use, and human livelihoods. Because of these rapid shifts, some conventional adaptation strategies may have limited success in reducing the impact of climate change. In some circumstances, there will be a need for considering transformative changes as part of adaptation strategies that can provide long-term benefits and address the root causes of vulnerability. However, to date, there is limited understanding of how societies respond to, or drive, transformative changes in social-ecological systems due to climate change impact. We reviewed 60 empirical case studies of shifts in trajectories of social-ecological systems in tropical and subtropical countries that were driven by climate change to identify how societies responded to these shifts and the extent to which societies used transformative adaptation as part of this response. In the case studies, we identified three types of shifts driven by climate change depending on whether the shift occurred in the ecological, social, or social-ecological system. Climate change shifted the trajectories of social-ecological systems by altering the feedback loops connecting soil, water, or vegetation conditions with people’s livelihoods and well-being. In response to these shifts, people adjusted land use policies and practices, but only one-quarter of the reported adaptation actions included transformative adaptation. A more holistic understanding of how climate change modifies interactions in social-ecological systems and leads to shifts in system trajectories could help identify appropriate adaptation responses, including transformative adaptation, that provide long-term and sustainable benefits.

The impacts of social-ecological system change on human-nature connectedness: A case study from Transylvania, Romania

Contemporary Romania has been subject to several major social and institutional shifts that have had implications for the connectedness of humans with their environment. Four major governance eras have influenced human-nature connections: (1) formal and informal institutional governance after the World Wars and before socialism (before 1947), (2) top-down governance during socialism (1947–1989) and (3) during sovereign state governance and transition to European Union (1990–2006), and (4) multilevel governance since European Union accession (after 2007). We analyzed two cultural landscapes in Transylvania with respect to changes in human-nature connectedness. The two systems were similar at the beginning of the 20th century, but developed differently in their intensity of landscape management in the 21st century. Drawing on 41 semi-structured interviews, we examined changes that influenced landscape management and human-nature connectedness, considering five dimensions of connectedness: material, experiential, emotional, cognitive and philosophical. Material connections have weakened as a result of changes in food production and rising consumerism. Experiential and emotional connections were influenced by socio-economic and landscape management changes. Cognitive connections reflected changes in the knowledge system on the environment. Philosophical connection was influenced by changes in ideologies and globalization. Our findings highlight the central influence of social and institutional change on perceived human-nature connectedness. Understanding this influence provides important pointers for how to reconnect humanity to nature in the coming decades.

Indigenous women respond to fisheries conflict and catalyze change in governance on Canada’s Pacific Coast

While the agency of individuals has been identified as a key factor in triggering governance transformations in social-ecological systems, more research attention is needed on how the social position of the actors involved influences these processes of change. Here, we highlight how the unique position of Indigenous women in a recent fishery conflict brought strength to this resource struggle and led to changes in the management of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) on the Central Coast of British Columbia, Canada. Through 18 semi-structured interviews with Heiltsuk women and men involved in this fishery conflict, we identified important actions taken by women in the community, which contributed to advancing the preconditions for transformation of the existing governance system. Heiltsuk women took on key leadership roles, increasing social cohesion, facilitating the flow of information, and negotiating among those holding power and conflicting objectives. Viewed through the framework of transformative change in social-ecological systems, women demonstrated strategic agency in challenging colonial governance regimes and catalyzing change. We relate these findings to theoretical understandings of women in environmental justice movements and activism and underscore the importance of Indigenous women as agents of change in their communities and as important actors in fisheries governance transformations. These leadership roles must be recognized and supported to navigate towards natural resource sustainability and social justice, globally, as well as reconciliation for past injustices, nationally.

Closing global knowledge gaps: Producing generalized knowledge from case studies of social-ecological systems

Abstract Concerns over rapid widespread changes in social-ecological systems and their consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, food security, and human livelihoods are driving demands for globally comprehensive knowledge to support decision-making and policy development. Claims of regional or global knowledge about the patterns, causes, and significance of changes in social-ecological systems, or ‘generalized knowledge claims’ (GKCs), are generally produced by synthesis of evidence compiled from local and regional case study observations. GKCs now constitute a wide and varied body of research, yet they are also increasingly contested based on disagreements about their geographic, temporal, and/or thematic validity. There are no accepted guidelines for detecting biases or logical gaps between GKC’s and the evidence used to produce them. Here, we propose a typology of GKCs based on their evidence base and the process by which they are produced. The typology is structured by three dimensions: i) the prior state of knowledge about the phenomenon of interest; ii) the logic of generalization underlying the claim; and iii) the methodology for generalization. From this typology, we propose a standardized approach to assess the quality and commensurability of these dimensions for any given GKC, and their ability to produce robust and transparent knowledge based on constituent evidence. We then apply this approach to evaluate two contested GKCs – addressing global biodiversity and large-scale land acquisitions – and in doing so demonstrate a coherent approach to assessing and evaluating the scope and validity of GKCs. With this approach, GKCs can be produced and applied with greater transparency and accuracy, advancing the goal of actionable science on social-ecological systems.

Natural sacred sites as indicators of social-ecological system change in traditional landscapes of Northern Morocco

In Morocco, sacred groves called marabouts constitute a dense network of wild-forest remnants of high ecological and cultural value but which are threatened by global change. In this study, we investigated the relationship between sacred natural site (SNS) structure and landscape dynamics in the traditional Mediterranean landscape of the Beni Arouss tribe in Northern Morocco. The total number of sacred sites considered was 101, with an average density of 3 SNSs per 10 km2 and an average area of 2.73 ha per SNS covered with natural vegetation—mainly cork oak forests (Quercus suber), woodlands (Quercus coccifera, Olea europaea), and scrublands. Analysis of the vascular plants in these sacred groves showed that there were 73 natural species and 3 fruit species in total; the natural species belonged to four plant forms: 6 tree species, 10 liana species, 20 shrub species, and 37 herbaceous plant species. To investigate the relationships between sacred groves and landscape change, the territory was divided into 51 land-use clusters around rural settlements. Multivariate analysis permitted the identification of three types of clusters categorized according to social-ecological system (SES): forest (F), agro-forest (AF), and agriculture (A). The landscape dynamics over the period from 1986 to 2003 were investigated, and those dynamics were found to be dominated by the conversion of forest to agriculture, which resulted in the transformation of 25% of the SESs from F-SESs and AF-SESs into A-SESs during the period considered. Statistical comparisons of plant forms in sacred groves belonging to stable SESs during the period 1986–2003 showed that tree richness and liana cover were higher in F-SESs than in A-SESs, shrub richness and cover were higher in AF-SESs than in A-SESs, but there were no plant forms differences between F-SESs and AF-SESs. We argue that SES transformation processes—as represented by spatial dynamics—involve a regression of sacred groves, such that the functional plant groups of sacred groves could be considered ecological indicators.

Institutional change in social-ecological systems: The evolution of grassland management in Inner Mongolia

Abstract Communities living in the grasslands of present day Inner Mongolia have experienced dramatic social, economic and ecological changes over the past millennium. More recently, these grasslands have undergone widespread degradation, raising concern for securing local herders' livelihoods. To understand these changes in ecological and welfare outcomes over long time scales, we define five broad periods of relative institutional stability over the past millennium, characterize social-ecological system during each period, and then assess major changes between these periods. Looking at changes in institutional contexts helps explain some of our outcomes of interest. We find that while much attention has been given to the change in grassland lease structures in China, the role of market integration and buffers against historically natural constraints on livestock production (e.g., protection from the winter months) have decoupled formerly tight local social-ecological links. This decoupling, along with weak land tenure security due to a complex and volatile policy landscape, suppresses local incentives for grassland conservation.

Staying in place during times of change in Arctic Alaska: the implications of attachment, alternatives, and buffering

The relationship between stability and change in social-ecological systems has received considerable attention in recent years, including the expectation that significant environmental changes will drive observable consequences for individuals, communities, and populations. Migration, as one example of response to adverse economic or environmental changes, has been observed in many places, including parts of the Far North. In Arctic Alaska, a relative lack of demographic or migratory response to rapid environmental and other changes has been observed. To understand why Arctic Alaska appears different, we draw on the literature on environmentally driven migration, focusing on three mechanisms that could account for the lack of response: attachment, the desire to remain in place, or the inability to relocate successfully; alternatives, ways to achieve similar outcomes through different means; and buffering, the reliance on subsidies or use of reserves to delay impacts. Each explanation has different implications for research and policy, indicating a need to further explore the relative contribution that each makes to a given situation in order to develop more effective responses locally and regionally. Given that the Arctic is on the front lines of climate change, these explanations are likely relevant to the ways changes play out in other parts of the world. Our review also underscores the importance of further attention to the details of social dynamics in climate change impacts and responses.

Theorizing the Social Structural Foundations of Adaptation and Transformation in Social-Ecological Systems

Social networks are frequently cited as vital for facilitating successful adaptation and transformation in linked social-ecological systems to overcome pressing resource management challenges. Yet confusion remains over the precise nature of adaptation versus transformation, and the specific social network structures that facilitate these processes. Here we adopt a network perspective to theorize a continuum of structural capacities in social-ecological systems that set the stage for effective adaptation and transformation. We begin by drawing on the resilience literature and the multilayered action situation to link processes of change in social-ecological systems to decision making across multiple layers of rules underpinning societal organization. We then present a framework that hypotheses seven specific social-ecological network configurations that lay the structural foundation necessary for facilitating adaptation and transformation, given the type and magnitude of human action required. A key contribution of the framework is explicit consideration of how social networks relate to ecological structures and the particular environmental problem at hand. Of the seven configurations identified, three are linked to capacities conducive for adaptation and three to transformation, while one is hypothesized to be important for facilitating both processes. We discuss how our theoretical framework can be applied in practice by highlighting existing empirical examples from related environmental governance contexts. Further extension of our hypotheses, particularly as more data become available, can ultimately help guide the design of institutional arrangements more effective at dealing with change.

The social structural foundations of adaptation and transformation in social–ecological systems

Barnes, M. L., Ö. Bodin, A. M. Guerrero, R. J. McAllister, S. M. Alexander, and G. Robins. 2017. The social structural foundations of adaptation and transformation in social–ecological systems. Ecology and Society 22(4):16. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09769-220416

Pasture access and adaptive capacity in reindeer herding districts in Nordland, Northern Norway

Resource access and livelihood flexibility have been identified in the literature as two critical determinants of adaptive capacity. This paper shows that these aspects play important roles in reindeer herding in Nordland County, Norway, in terms of resilience to changes in social-ecological systems. Throughout history, reindeer herders have been able to draw on a broad range of adaptation options, but increased pasture fragmentation and loss of grazing land increasingly affect herders’ adaptability to weather variability and climate change impacts. Our analysis of empirical material from three adjacent reindeer herding districts illustrates the linkages between socio-economic and environmental exposure sensitivities, how the herders adapt by exploring patterns of differential adaptive capacity, and how adaptive capacity is impacted. Two socio-economic (pasture encroachment and insufficient human resources) and two environmental (locked pastures and predation) exposure sensitivities emerged as the most prominent affecting pasture access, which was the most critical factor for ensuring the adaptive capacity of reindeer herders. Flexibility to alternate between adaptation strategies was another important characteristic. Adapting to these exposure sensitivities engenders benefits and unintended negative consequences for the herders. The key components to adaptive capacity identified in this paper provide an evidence-based focus for management action by those seeking to improve resilience of socio-ecological systems at the community level.

Understanding social-ecological change and transformation through community perceptions of system identity

We developed an empirical approach to consider social-ecological system change and transformation by drawing on resource users’ knowledge and perceptions. We applied this approach in the Cau Hai lagoon, a coastal area dominated by small-scale fisheries in central Vietnam. Nine focus groups with more than 70 fishers were used to gather information about key social-ecological system elements and interactions, historical social-ecological dynamics, and possible thresholds between distinct social-ecological system identities. The patterns of change in livelihoods and resource exploitation in the Cau Hai lagoon are similar to those seen in other coastal lagoon and small-scale fishery contexts. Our findings show some promise for the use of local knowledge and the perceptions of resource user communities to understand and characterize social-ecological transformations. Importantly, however, we also demonstrate how social-ecological transformations are complicated processes driven by many factors beyond the control of any singular individual or group. We argue that (1) the occurrence of social-ecological transformations can result in either positive or negative outcomes and (2) that we need to direct our thinking away from drawing tidy conclusions about if and when social-ecological transformations take place. Our research also encourages scholars to carefully consider how we frame the benefits of participatory, community-based governance initiatives. Importantly, we need to examine the ways that governance initiatives will be beneficial for some people and detrimental for others, and we need to be fully aware of locally contested interests and acknowledge competing priorities for fisheries management and human well-being. Community-oriented assessments informed by resilience thinking can help to open up questions about economic, political, cultural, and environmental aspects of undesirable path dependencies and traps.