Changes In Semi-arid Regions Research Articles

Impact of drought on vegetation over inner Mongolia autonomous region

Abstract In recent years, remote sensing technology has become an important tool for monitoring vegetation changes in semi-arid regions. By using data collected by satellites to calculate vegetation indices, researchers can track changes in vegetation density and productivity over time. This can help identify areas of potential desertification or degraded land degradation and develop management strategies to restore degraded ecosystems. The objectives of this paper are to use multi-temporal MODIS data to extract vegetation distribution characteristics and dynamics in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. This study summarized the rainfall data of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2000 to 2019, and found the driest year 2001 and the wettest year 2012. The NDVI data of 4 districts of Xingan League in 2001 and 2012 were selected for analysis, and the average NDVI value and standard deviation of the 4 districts were obtained. NDVI data was combined with elevation data and vegetation data for analysis. The relationship between precipitation and NDVI is helpful to understand the impact of drought on vegetation in Inner Mongolia and provide reference for regional environmental management.

Effects of Precipitation Variation on Annual and Winter Soil Respiration in a Semiarid Mountain Shrubland in Northern China

In response to global climate change, future precipitation changes are expected to profoundly influence soil respiration in arid and semiarid areas. However, few studies focus on CO2 emissions from soils undergoing precipitation changes in semiarid mountain shrublands in winter. A precipitation-manipulation experiment with three levels of precipitation (30% decreased precipitation (DP), ambient precipitation (AP), and 30% increased precipitation (IP)) was performed to examine the effects of variable precipitation on soil respiration (SR) and wintertime contributions to annual SR emissions in Vitex negundo var. heterophylla shrub ecosystems located on the Middle Taihang Mountain in Hebei Province, northern China. The results showed that the average annual SR rates and winter SR rates ranged from 1.37 to 1.67 μmol m−2 s−1 and 0.42 to 0.59 μmol m−2 s−1 among the different precipitation treatments. The model based on soil moisture better represented the soil-respiration rates, suggesting that the variable precipitation extended the water’s limitation of the soil’s CO2 emissions. The cumulative annual soil CO2 emissions were 523, 578, and 634 g C m−2 in response to the DP, AP, and IP treatments, respectively. The ratio of the soil CO2 emissions in winter to the annual CO2 emissions varied from 7.6 to 8.8% in response to the different precipitation treatments. Therefore, ignoring the soil CO2 emissions in winter leads to the underestimation of the carbon losses in semiarid shrublands. Our results highlight that variable precipitation significantly influences soil-respiration rates, and soil CO2 emissions in winter must not be ignored when predicting the future feedback between SR and climate change in semiarid regions.

New evidence for Holocene vegetation variations and their drivers in an East Asian sandy land: A perspective from aeolian sand-paleosol deposits

Past vegetation responses to climate change in semi-arid and arid regions are not yet well understood, especially in northeastern China. This study provides new evidence for long-term vegetation changes and their possible driving forces in northeastern China's Songnen sandy lands by employing a multiproxy approach applied to well-dated aeolian sand-paleosol sediments. Pollen analyses and data on total organic carbon (TOC) are used to reconstruct paleovegetation dynamics whereas grain size data are used for interpreting independent paleoclimate changes. Results show that Chenopodiaceae and Ephedra plants dominated in a brief early period that was followed by an abrupt transition to Artemisia and Asteraceae plants with the encroachment of dry steppes between 9000 and 7000 cal yr BP. From 7000 to 3200 cal yr BP, Chenopodiaceae plant dominated the region. During the 3200 to 400 cal yr BP interval Ulmus, Salix, and Tribulus abundance increased while Chenopodiaceae abundance decreased. After 400 cal yr BP, Poaceae plants generally expanded and the regional landscape alternated between dry steppe and steppe. In addition, changes in the regional vegetation exhibit 1000 yr periodic oscillations especially during 9000 to 4500 cal yr BP. By comparing these features with regional climate change, we suggest that regional paleovegetation dynamics were linked to East Asia Summer Monsson (EASM) circulation. These findings reveal a pronounced long-term relationship between vegetation and climate change in semi-arid regions worldwide.

GOVERNANÇA ADAPTATIVA E SEGURANÇA HÍDRICA EM CONTEXTO DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NO SEMIÁRIDO

The aim of this paper is to analyze whether the management of water resources in the state of RN meets the requirements of adaptive governance in order to enable adaptation processes to the possible impacts of climate change in semi-arid regions. To do so, the work follows the guidelines of a qualitative, exploratory and descriptive approach using a set of research instruments: bibliographic survey, case study, structured interviews and content analysis. The results show that the management of water resources in RN presents a series of challenges and obstacles to configure itself in a climate adaptive governance perspective. In summary, it is concluded that the management of water resources in the state of RN still does not meet the requirements of a robust adaptive governance capable of operating responses to the risks of climate change and ensuring water security. Keywords: Climate Change. Adaptation. Management of Water Resources. Sustainability. Brazilian Semi-arid.

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) yield response to rainwater harvesting practices in the semi-arid farming environments of Zimbabwe: A meta-analysis

Rainwater harvesting practices are increasingly gaining recognition as viable adaptation strategies to overcome rainfall variability caused by climate change in semi-arid regions of Zimbabwe. A meta-analysis was conducted to provide a comprehensive quantitative synthesis of biophysical conditions (rainfall, soil texture, N fertility, mulch) under which basins, rippers, and tied ridges affected sorghum yields in semi-arid areas of Zimbabwe. Rainfall amount (<600 mm, 600–1000 mm), soil texture (20 % clay, 20–35 % clay), mulch (basin + mulch, ripper + mulch, tied ridges + mulch), and fertility (0–30 kg N/ha, 30–100 kg N/ha) were used to evaluate the response of sorghum grain yield to rainwater harvesting practices. Grain yield response was compared to the control (conventional practice) using the weighted mean yield difference approach. The results showed comparable sorghum grain yields in all the rainwater harvesting practices across the biophysical conditions, except under rainfall and soil textural classes. Tied ridges had a significant (p < 0.05) negative sorghum grain yield response (−0.25 t/ha) under <600 mm of rainfall, while ripper planting resulted in a substantial negative grain yield response (−0.32 t/ha) under 600–1000 mm of rainfall. Ripper planting reduced grain yield significantly (p < 0.05) (−1.06 t/ha) in soils with 20–35% clay. The results suggest that basins, rippers, and tied ridges did not improve sorghum grain yield across all agronomic conditions.

Precipitation Changes in Semi-arid Regions in East Asia Under Global Warming

The semi-arid regions of East Asia are located in the transition area between regions dominated by the monsoon system and by westerly winds; their interaction is the key to understand precipitation changes, especially in the summer. Our results show that the enhancement of both the monsoon and westerly winds occurs in wet years, leading to stronger convergence and more rainfall. Weakening of both the monsoon and westerly winds occurs in dry years and results in less rainfall. Such interaction between the monsoon and westerlies is not constant; the boundary of their effects is changing all the time. As the monsoon strengthens, it shifts to the west in wet years and covers most of the semi-arid regions, and the negative effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system on precipitation in the semi-arid regions becomes obvious. However, westward expansion has not been evident over the past 70 years in historic data. In the future, the monsoon will obviously expand westward, and the precipitation over the Loess Plateau will gradually increase as the monsoon boundary expand westward until the end of the 21st century. This change indicates that more rainfall will occur in the semi-arid regions of East Asia, which could dramatically change the ecological environment, especially over the Loess Plateau.

A New Approach for Environmental Modelling of LULC Changes in Semi-arid Regions of Anantapur District, Andhra Pradesh, India Using Geospatial Techniques

A New Approach for Environmental Modelling of LULC Changes in Semi-arid Regions of Anantapur District, Andhra Pradesh, India Using Geospatial Techniques

Analyzing the impacts of physical and morphological characteristics of built-ups on land surface temperature changes in semi-arid regions

سابقه و هدف: شهر نشینی و گسترش شهرها اثرهای متفاوتی بر محیط طبیعی و انسانی و همچنین اقلیم محلی و ناحیه­ای داشته است. به ­طور مثال اختلاف در توازن انرژی بین مناطق مرکزی و منطقه ­های حاشیه ­ای شهرها حاصل ویژگی­ های کالبدی و پوشش‌های سطحی است. این ویژگی­ ها در مناطق معتدل سبب به­ وجود آمدن پدیده جزیره حرارتی و در نواحی خشک و نیمه‌خشک موجب به ­وجود آمدن پدیده جزیره سرد شهری می‌شوند. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی تاثیر ویژگی ­های پوشش‌های سطحی، پیکربندی و مورفولوژیکی1 شهر بر تغییرات دمای سطح شهر زنجان است.مواد و روش ­ها: داده‌های مورداستفاده شامل تصاویر لندست 5 سنجنده TM2 برای سال 2010 و 2011 و اطلاعات آماری در سطح بلوک ­های ساختمانی است. مواد و روشها: روش کار در این پژوهش بدین‌صورت است که اثرهای پوشش ­های مختلف بر دمای سطح زمین مورد بررسی قرارگرفته است. سپس برای نشان دادن اثرهای زمین ­های ساخته‌شده بر دمای سطح زمین از روش IBI3 و آستانه­ گذاری اتسو استفاده شده است. برای نشان دادن اثرهای پیکربندی زمین­ های ساخته‌شده بر تغییرات دمای سطح زمین از سنجه­ های سیمای سرزمین همچون سنجه تقسیم سیمای سرزمین، بعد فراکتال و درصد سیمای سرزمین استفاده شده است. در نهایت اثر ریزدانگی نیز مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. نتایج و بحث: نتایج نشان داده است که از میان همه فصل ­ها، بیشترین شدت جزیره سرد در فصل تابستان بوده است. همچنین نتایج نشان داده است که در فصل تابستان نسبت به دیگر فصل­ ها جزیره سرد بهتر نمایش داده می ­شود. نمودار نقطه ­ای بین زمین­ های ساخته‌شده و پوشش گیاهی با دمای سطح زمین نشان از یک رابطه غیر مستقیم دارد و زمین­ های ساخته شده بیشترین همبستگی منفی را با دمای سطح زمین داشته است (0.704- r = ). در بین سنجه‌های سیمای سرزمین، بیشترین همبستگی مثبت (r = 0.72) را سنجه تقسیم سیمای سرزمین با دمای سطح زمین داشته است. افزون بر این، بین ویژگی‌های مورفولوژی شهری یا ریزدانگی نیز همبستگی بالا و منفی (r = 0.73 ) با دمای سطح زمین مشاهده شده است. نتایج ضریب همبستگی پیرسون بین پوشش­ های سطحی و ویژگی­ های پیکربندی و مورفولوژی با دمای سطح زمین به­ طور کامل معنا دار بوده ­اند (P ≤ 0.01). نتیجه­ گیری: از نتایج این تحقیق می ­توان نتیجه گرفت که ویژگی­ های پیکربندی و مورفولوژی بهتر از پوشش­ های سطح زمین توانسته­‌اند تغییرات دمای سطح زمین را مدل کنند.

Drought Exacerbates Negative Consequences of High‐Intensity Cattle Grazing in a Semiarid Grassland

Grasslands managed for grazing are the largest land-use category globally, with a significant proportion of these grasslands occurring in semiarid and arid regions. In such dryland systems, the effect of grazing on native plant diversity has been equivocal, some studies suggesting that grazing reduces native plant diversity, others that grazing increases or has little impact on diversity. One impediment toward generalizing grazing effects on diversity in this region is that high levels of interannual variation in precipitation may obfuscate vegetative response patterns. By analyzing a long-term data set collected over a 20-yr period in a semiarid grassland, we explicitly evaluated the role of climate in regulating the effect of cattle grazing on plant communities, finding that climate interacted with grazing intensity to shape grassland communities. Community composition of plots that were intensively grazed varied considerably in response to climatic variation and native species richness was low relative to ungrazed and moderately grazed plots. Following a severe drought in 2002, exotic species richness rapidly increased in the high-intensity grazing plots. While this pattern was mirrored in the other treatments, exotic species richness increased to a greater extent and was slower to return to pre-drought levels in the high-intensity grazing plots. Overall, moderate grazing, even compared to grazing cessation, stabilized grassland communities through time, increased resilience to drought, and maintained the highest levels of native plant diversity and lowest levels of exotic diversity. These findings suggest that grazing, at moderate levels, may support grassland resilience to climate change in semiarid regions. However, grazing that exceeds tolerances, particularly in combination with extreme climatic events, like drought, can alter plant composition over relatively long timescales and possibly increase invasibility by nonnative species.

An Overview of Managed Aquifer Recharge in Mexico and Its Legal Framework

In Mexico, one hundred of the 188 most important aquifers dedicated to agriculture and human consumption are over-exploited and 32 are affected by seawater intrusion in coastal areas. Considering that Mexico relies on groundwater, it is vital to develop a portfolio of alternatives to recover aquifers and examine policies and programs regarding reclaimed water and stormwater. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) may be useful for increasing water availability and adapting to climate change in semi-arid regions of Mexico. In this paper, we present an overview of water recharge projects that have been conducted in Mexico in the last 50 years, their methods for recharge, water sources, geographical distribution, and the main results obtained in each project. We found three types of MAR efforts: (1) exploratory and suitability studies for MAR, (2) pilot projects, and (3) MAR facilities that currently operate. This study includes the examination of the legal framework for MAR to identify some challenges and opportunities that Mexican regulation contains in this regard. We find that beyond the technical issues that MAR projects normally address, the regulatory framework is a barrier to increasing MAR facilities in Mexico.

A mechanistic investigation of the oasis effect in the Zhangye cropland in semiarid western China

Providing mechanistic explanations for oasis cold island effect trends expands current understanding of how land use change affects local climate in semi-arid regions globally. Data from Zhangye, Gansu, China in 2013 were used to evaluate intrinsic biophysical mechanism (IBPM) theory's ability to model the oasis effect. The land-surface temperature oasis effect is observed most intensely in summer afternoon (average difference −12.66 ± 6.6 K at 13:30 between oasis and desert sites). Observed land-surface temperature oasis effects result from differences in surface albedo, Bowen ratio, soil heat flux and air temperature. The Bowen ratio change is the strongest predictor of land-surface temperature oasis effect, with a nearly 1:1 relationship to the observed land-surface oasis effect in summer (R2 = 0.6). The IBPM theory accurately predicts oasis effects for 66% of summer daylight hours, with an average RSME of 4.72 K. Correlation analysis is performed to evaluate the impacts of meteorological conditions on observed oasis effects, showing that higher windspeed and greater atmospheric clarity produce stronger land-surface temperature oasis effects. In summer, this relationship is strongest, with an R2 value of 0.65 and RSME of 3.77. This research has implications for evaluating temperature impacts of land use change in semi-arid regions globally.

Drought exacerbates negative consequences of high-intensity cattle grazing in a semiarid grassland.

Grasslands managed for grazing are the largest land-use category globally, with a significant proportion of these grasslands occurring in semiarid and arid regions. In such dryland systems, the effect of grazing on native plant diversity has been equivocal, some studies suggesting that grazing reduces native plant diversity, others that grazing increases or has little impact on diversity. One impediment toward generalizing grazing effects on diversity in this region is that high levels of interannual variation in precipitation may obfuscate vegetative response patterns. By analyzing a long-term data set collected over a 20-yr period in a semiarid grassland, we explicitly evaluated the role of climate in regulating the effect of cattle grazing on plant communities, finding that climate interacted with grazing intensity to shape grassland communities. Community composition of plots that were intensively grazed varied considerably in response to climatic variation and native species richness was low relative to ungrazed and moderately grazed plots. Following a severe drought in 2002, exotic species richness rapidly increased in the high-intensity grazing plots. While this pattern was mirrored in the other treatments, exotic species richness increased to a greater extent and was slower to return to pre-drought levels in the high-intensity grazing plots. Overall, moderate grazing, even compared to grazing cessation, stabilized grassland communities through time, increased resilience to drought, and maintained the highest levels of native plant diversity and lowest levels of exotic diversity. These findings suggest that grazing, at moderate levels, may support grassland resilience to climate change in semiarid regions. However, grazing that exceeds tolerances, particularly in combination with extreme climatic events, like drought, can alter plant composition over relatively long timescales and possibly increase invasibility by nonnative species.

The mirage water concept and an index-based approach to quantify causes of hydrological changes in semi-arid regions

ABSTRACTIn semi-arid regions, reduced river flows present is a major challenge in water resources management. We present a new standardized contribution of rainfall to runoff index (SCRI) for evaluating changes in rainfall contribution to river flow. We employ the standardized precipitation index (SPI), standardized discharge index (SDI) and SCRI to characterize meteorological drought, hydrological drought and land-use change impacts on river flow, respectively. These indices are applied to the Mond River Basin (Iran), which is regulated by the Salman Farsi and Tangab dams since 2006. A new concept called “mirage water” is proposed that represents the reduced water delivery to downstream areas due to new developments and water withdrawals in headwater tributaries. In particular, mirage water accounts for changes in upstream water consumption between the planning phase and construction/operation life of dams. We recommend that this concept be used for communication with decision-makers and managers to clarify the need for revising dimensions of planned dams.

Responses of soil organic carbon and nitrogen to land-use changes in a semiarid region of northwest China

Currently, we lack a clear understanding of how climate influences the responses of soil organic carbon (OC) and nitrogen (N) to land-use changes in semiarid regions. Thus, to clarify the mechanisms involved, we measured the soil OC and total N (TN) concentrations and stocks in the 0–100 cm soil layer in adjacent grassland, farmland, and woodland at five sites on the Loess Plateau in China, which varied in terms of the mean annual precipitation (MAP) and mean annual temperature (MAT). The farmland or woodland was converted from grassland at each site. Conversion of grassland to farmland significantly reduced the soil OC and TN, with greater decreases in sites with relatively lower MAP and MAT (–0.60 Mg OC ha−1 yr−1 and –0.22 Mg TN ha−1 yr−1, respectively) than sites with relatively higher MAP and MAT (–0.35 Mg OC ha−1 yr−1 and –0.04 Mg TN ha−1 yr−1). Conversion of grassland to woodland increased OC and TN at sites with higher MAP and MAT, but decreased them at sites with lower MAP and MAT. OC and TN increased to a depth of 100 cm with MAP and MAT after this land-use change. OC and TN decreased at relatively drier and colder sites, but increased at relatively wetter and warmer sites. These findings provide insights into the effects of land-use changes on the soil OC and TN under different climate conditions, thereby facilitating the sustainable management of grasslands in semiarid regions.

Water transit time and active recharge in the Sahel inferred by bomb-produced 36Cl

The lack of data and suitable methods to quantify regional hydrological processes often hinders sustainable water management and adaptation to climate change in semiarid regions, particularly in the Sahel, which is known for its climatic variability. Here we show that 36Cl from nuclear tests is a promising method to estimate water transit times and groundwater recharge rates on the catchment scale, and to distinguish water and chloride cycles. 36Cl was measured in 131 surface and groundwater samples in the Chari-Logone sub-catchment of the emblematic Lake Chad Basin, located in central Sahel. It was found that only 12 ± 8% of the catchment is connected to the main rivers. Groundwater supporting rivers in the upper humid part of the catchment has a mean transit time of 9.5 ± 1 years and a recharge rate of 240 ± 170 mm yr−1. In the lower Sahelian part of the catchment, stream-focused recharge yields recharge rates up to 78 ± 7 mm yr−1 in riparian groundwater against 16 ± 27 mm yr−1 elsewhere. Our estimates suggest that aquifers in the Sahel host a significant amount of renewable water, which could therefore be used as a strategic freshwater resource.

The Use of Non-Conventional Water Resources as a Means of Adaptation to Drought and Climate Change in Semi-Arid Regions: South-Eastern Spain

Drought is a climatic risk with notable repercussions on water supply systems. The aim of this study is to analyze the principal measures for management and planning implemented during recent decades in south-eastern Spain (Segura River Basin) to respond to drought situations, focusing on the role played by non-conventional water resources (desalination and treated water). The results demonstrate that the study area (despite being one of the driest places of Spain) is less vulnerable to drought than regions with an Atlantic climate and greater availability of water. This has been possible thanks to the integration of non-conventional water resources as a means of adaptation to confront this natural risk, which is estimated to become more intense and frequent in the future owing to climate change.

Spatiotemporal reference evapotranspiration changes in humid and semi-arid regions of Iran: past trends and future projections

This study was undertaken to investigate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) changes in semi-arid and humid regions of Iran during the past (1966–2010) and future (2011–2099). For detecting possible trend in ET0 over 1966–2010, the Mann–Kendall trend test was employed. The outputs of Hadley Centre coupled model version 3 (HadCM3) and the third generation couple global climate model (CGCM3) under A2, B2, and A1B emission scenarios were also used to simulate the future ET0 changes by statistical downscaling model (SDSM). The results indicated upward trends in annual ET0 during 1966–2010 in the most sites. Furthermore, the significant increasing ET0 trends were identified for 54.5, 18.2, 27.3, 22.7, and 36.3% of studied locations during winter, spring, summer, autumn, and entire year, respectively. Positive trends in ET0 were mostly found in northeast, west, and northwest Iran, and insignificant downward ET0 trends were primarily detected in southwestern and southern stations in 1966–2010. The ET0 changes were attributed to wind speed changes in semi-arid regions and mean temperature changes in humid areas in the past period. An increase in ET0 was projected under all scenarios due mainly to temperature rise and declined relative humidity in the investigated regions from 2011 to 2100. Averaged over all stations, the lowest and highest ET0 increment were, respectively, modeled for autumn and summer using CGCM3 outputs and winter and autumn using HadCM3 outputs. Given significant ET0 increase over the twenty-first century, appropriate adaptive measures are required to reduce negative impacts of climate change on water resources and agricultural productions.

Towards an increase of flash flood geomorphic effects due to gravel mining and ground subsidence in Nogalte stream (Murcia, SE Spain)

Abstract. Transition from endorheic alluvial fan environments to well-channelized fluvial systems in natural conditions may occur in response to base-level fluctuations. However, human-induced changes in semi-arid regions can also be responsible for similar unforeseen modifications. Our results confirm that in-channel gravel mining and aquifer overexploitation over the last 50 years in the case study area have changed the natural stability of the Nogalte stream and, as a result, its geomorphic parameters including channel depth and longitudinal profile have begun to adapt to the new situation. Using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data we obtain maximum values for ground subsidence in the Upper Guadalentín Basin of ∼ 10 cm yr−1 for the period 2003–2010. In this context of a lowered base level, the river is changing its natural flood model to a more powerful one. A comparison of the 1973 flood event, the most dramatic flood event ever recorded in the area, with the 2012 event, where there was a similar discharge but a sediment load deficit, reveals greater changes and a new flooding pattern and extension. In-channel gravel mining may be responsible for significant local changes in channel incision and profile. This, together with the collateral effects of aquifer overexploitation, can favour increased river velocity and stream power, which intensify the consequences of the flooding. The results obtained here clearly demonstrate an existing transition from the former alluvial pattern to a confined fluvial trend, which may become more pronounced in the future due to the time lag between the drop in aquifer level and ground subsidence, and introduce a new scenario to be taken into consideration in future natural hazard planning in this area.

Effects of rainfall pattern on the growth and fecundity of a dominant dune annual in a semi-arid ecosystem

Current and future changes in rainfall patterns – amount and frequency – may particularly impact annual plants in semi-arid ecosystems. The aim of this study was to investigate how changes in rainfall patterns affect the growth and fecundity of sand dune annuals. The effects of gradients in five rainfall amounts and five frequencies, based on historical and predicted values, on growth and fecundity of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a dominant annual in Mu Us Sandland, were examined in the near natural habitat. Rainfall amount and frequency significantly affected all vegetative and reproductive traits. With decreased amount of rainfall, height, biomass, seed number, seed mass and reproductive effort decreased, while root/shoot ratio increased. Except for the two extreme frequencies (1- and 120-day intervals), values of all vegetative and reproductive traits increased with the increase of rainfall frequencies. Germinability of offspring seeds tended to increase with increasing aridity, suggesting that a maternal effect may have been present. Our study shows that the plastic response in growth and fecundity of A. squarrosum to rainfall fluctuation allows the plant to survive and reproduce under current unpredictable environments as well as the increased variability predicted with climate change in semi-arid regions.

Water scarcity impact of climate change in semi-arid regions: a case study in Mujib basin, Jordan

Jordan is confronting a severe water scarcity because of its reliance on a highly fluctuating annual precipitation. The impact of climate change on freshwater resources is of primary concern as it may elevate water shortage problem. Therefore, climate change has to be adequately addressed in order to attain proper management and sustainable use of available water resources. In this paper, incremental scenarios of climate change have been deployed to assess foreseen impacts of climate change on water resources in Mujib, a groundwater basin in central Jordan by the aid of Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model. Ten incremental scenarios representing dry, normal, and wet events are tried. Findings indicate that dry scenarios lead to about 20 to 50 % reduction in annual precipitation and surface runoff. However, wet scenarios estimate annual precipitation and surface runoff to increase up to fourfold the baseline values.