Regional Changes Research Articles

Population changes in a Southern Ocean krill predator point towards regional Antarctic sea ice declines

While foraging, marine predators integrate information about the environment often across wide-ranging oceanic foraging grounds and reflect these in population parameters. One such species, the southern right whale (Eubalaena australis; SRW) has shown alterations to foraging behaviour, declines in body condition, and reduced reproductive rates after 2009 in the South African population. As capital breeders, these changes suggest decreased availability of their main prey at high-latitudes, Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). This study analysed environmental factors affecting prey availability for this population over the past 40 years, finding a notable southward contraction in sea ice, a 15–30% decline in sea ice concentration, and a more than two-fold increase in primary production metrics after 2008. These environmental conditions are less supportive of Antarctic krill recruitment in known SRW foraging grounds. Additionally, marginal ice zone, sea ice concentration and two primary production metrics were determined to be either regionally significant or marginally significant predictors of calving interval length when analysed using a linear model. Findings highlight the vulnerability of recovering baleen whale populations to climate change and show how capital breeders serve as sentinels of ecosystem changes in regions that are difficult or costly to study.

Histological Evaluation of Polyacid-Modified Composite Resin and Conventional Composite Resin Used for Primary Molars Restoration

Background: The present study evaluated the histological outcomes of two dental restorative materials, polyacid-modified composite resin (compomer) and conventional composite resin, in the primary molars of puppies. Materials and Methods: Twenty sound primary molars in four puppies were used. The puppies were rendered unconscious using general anesthesia. Similar cylindrical Class V cavities were prepared in 16 of the 20 selected primary molars. The teeth were divided into three groups: Group I: Eight cavities were restored with compomer; Group II: Eight cavities were restored with conventional composite resin; Group III: Four teeth remained untreated and were used as controls. In Groups I and II, four teeth were examined histologically after 2 weeks and the other four after 6 weeks. The histological findings were analyzed and compared to determine the effects of each type of resin material on the dentine and the pulp. Results: At 6 weeks, the specimens tested for compomer showed obvious destructive changes in the central region and the region of the pulp adjacent to the cavity. The specimens tested for conventional composite resin revealed, at 6 weeks, massive destruction of the pulp tissues and abscess formation was observed. All the specimens tested in the control group showed normal cellularity, normal vascularity, and proper alignment of odontoblast cells. Conclusions: The teeth restored with compomer demonstrated more favorable pulpal reactions when compared with the teeth restored with conventional composite resin after 6 weeks.

Evaluation of the spatial responses in vegetation phenology to drought and the analysis of their driving factors in China

The warming and drying trend accompanying climate change challenges global ecosystem stability. Vegetation phenology, which can serve as a sensitive indicator of climate change, is crucial in understanding ecosystem carbon cycling and climate-carbon cycle feedback. Therefore, assessing the phenological responses to drought is essential for addressing climate change. In this study, vegetation phenology data [including the start and end of season (SOS, EOS) and length of growing season (LOS)] and the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) were employed to analyze the impacts of drought on plant phenology in China by maximum Pearson correlation coefficients and partial least squares regression. The findings showed that drought significantly affected the timing of phenology, delaying senescence in approximately 62% of China and extending the growing season in about 53% of the country, indicating the critical role of water availability in vegetation biomass. Preseason nocturnal warming was found to advance SOS, delay EOS, and extend LOS across China, with significant effects observed in approximately 60% of the country. Meanwhile, daytime warming delayed SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in 50∼60% of the regions. Moreover, preseason precipitation is conducive to advanced SOS, delayed EOS and extended LOS in northern China and areas susceptible to drought. It is suggested that vegetation management should be strengthened to mitigate the impact of climate change in temperate and drought-prone regions in China since climate warming will lead to frequent droughts.

Effects of corneal epithelial remodeling on corneal asphericity after FS-LASIK and Trans-PRK: A prospective study.

To observe the changes in corneal epithelial thickness after FS-LASIK and Trans-PRK surgery and to investigate the impact of corneal epithelial remodeling on Q-value and HOA. In this prospective cohort study, 50 patients (100 eyes) underwent FS-LASIK and 45 patients (90 eyes) underwent Trans-PRK. Anterior segment OCT was used to measure the corneal epithelial thickness in different corneal zones (central zone: 0-2 mm; paracentral zone: 2-5 mm; and mid-peripheral zone: 5-6 mm) preoperatively and postoperatively at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months. The correlation between ΔCET in the superior, nasal, inferior, and temporal region at 6 months postoperatively and ΔQ and ΔHOA was analyzed. At 6 months postoperatively, the epithelial thickness increased in the central, paracentral, and mid-peripheral zones in FS-LASIK and Trans-PRK. Central epithelial thickness and different regions of the paracentral zone and mid-peripheral exhibited significant thickening (P < 0.001). In the para-central zone and mid-peripheral zone, the ΔCET in different regions after LASIK and Trans-PRK was positively correlated with ΔQ (P < 0.05) and ΔHOA (P < 0.05). After FS-LASIK and Trans-PRK, significant epithelial thickening was observed. Epithelial changes in different regions lead to different Q-values in different regions and have different effects on HOA. This has a certain guiding significance for the design of refractive surgery, and minimizing the increase of Q-value may improve the postoperative visual quality.

Abnormal percent amplitude of fluctuation in patients with lifelong premature ejaculation is associated with neurotransmitter profiles.

Identifying additional imaging biomarkers of lifelong premature ejaculation (LPE) may provide valuable insights into understanding the underlying neural mechanisms of this disorder. Forty-six LPE patients and thirty-five healthy controls (HCs) were enrolled in this study. The Percent Amplitude of Fluctuation (PerAF) method was used to assess differences in brain function in LPE patients compared to HCs during the resting-state. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to investigate the potential biomarkers based on the imaging findings. Correlation analysis was then applied to examine the relationships between the neuroimaging findings and clinical symptoms. We also investigated whether PerAF alterations in LPE patients were associated with specific neurotransmitter systems. Compared to HCs, LPE patients showed increased PerAF in the middle cingulate cortex (MCC), supramarginal gyrus, Rolandic operculum, parahippocampus/hippocampus (ParaHIPP/HIPP) as well as insula; and decreased PerAF in the precuneus, inferior temporal cortex plus occipital cortex. The MCC and ParaHIPP/HIPP exhibited higher classification performance on ROC analysis. Positive correlations were found between the Premature Ejaculation Diagnostic Tool score and PerAF in the insula, and the International Index of Erectile Function score and PerAF in the precuneus. Additionally, altered PerAF in LPE patients correlated significantly with the spatial distribution of dopamine, acetylcholine and epinephrine pathways. Our findings indicate that LPE patients have PerAF-related changes in certain brain regions associated with visual, sensory and/or emotional processing, and reveal that the abnormal control of ejaculatory function may be related to the combined dysregulation of neurotransmitter systems in LPE patients.

Spatio-temporal variation and prediction of land use and carbon storage based on PLUS-InVEST model in Shanxi Province, China

AbstractCoal mining in Shanxi Province for many years has caused regional land-use changes, seriously affecting the local ecological environment. To promote the green and sustainable development of this area and achieve the goal of “double carbon”, the PLUS-InVEST model was used to analyze the nearly 20 year land-use types transfer and carbon storage changes in the region based on the five periods of land-use data of Shanxi Province from 2002 to 2022 in this study. Three scenarios were set up to predict the data in 2032, and the driving forces of spatial differentiation of the carbon storage were analyzed by geographical detector. The results showed that: (1) Land-use change had an important impact on carbon storage. Construction land in Shanxi Province expanded by 3068.47 km2 from 2002 to 2022, an increase of 59.33%, and the rest of the land types, except for forest, continued to decrease, resulting in a decline in total carbon storage of 228.88 × 104 t. (2) The natural development scenario shows the same transfer of land as before in 2032. Under the urban development scenario, the expansion of construction land in Shanxi Province is the largest, and carbon storage decreases instead of increasing; under the ecological protection scenario forest and grassland increase, and carbon storage increase the most, with a value of 738.67 × 104 t. (3) The dominant driving factors for the spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Shanxi Province were the land-use degree comprehensive index and night light index, with the explanatory power of 0.866 and 0.755, respectively, and the interaction of the land-use degree comprehensive index with other factors had the most significant effect on the change of carbon storage. The study suggested that the expansion of construction land into high carbon storage categories was the main reason for the loss of carbon storage, and Shanxi Province should optimize the land-use structure and adopt ecological protection works to increase carbon storage effectively.

Increased cerebellar vermis volume following repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation in drug-resistant epilepsy: a voxel-based morphometry study

IntroductionVoxel-based morphometry (VBM) was applied to explore structural changes induced by repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) and the relationship with clinical outcomes. Moreover, the relationship between each segmented regional gray matter (GM) volume was investigated to identify circuits involved in the rTMS treatment process in patients with drug-resistant epilepsy (DRE).MethodsNineteen patients with DRE were finally included in the analysis. A session of rTMS was applied for 5 consecutive days. Participants received either 1,000 or 3,000 pulses, at a frequency of 0.5 Hz and the intensity was set at 90% of the individual’s resting motor threshold. VBM analysis was performed to explore regional GM volume changes 2 months after rTMS application. The regional volume change was correlated with seizure reduction rate. Relationships between changes in GM volume in each anatomically parcellated region were analyzed using a fully-automated segmentation pipeline.ResultsCompared to the baseline, seizure frequency was reduced, and quality of life was improved after rTMS treatment. Regional volume was increased in the cerebellar vermis 2 months after rTMS application. The increased cerebellar vermis volume correlated with the reduced seizure frequency. Regional volume changes in the cerebellar vermis were correlated with changes in the subcortical and cortical GM regions including the thalamus, caudate, and frontal cortex.DiscussionThese results indicate that rTMS treatment effectively reduced seizure frequency in patients with DRE. Increased volume in the cerebellar vermis and activations of the cerebello-thalamo-cortical circuit may be a crucial mechanism underlying the effectiveness of rTMS application in patients with DRE.

Functional connectivity density of brain in children with primary nocturnal enuresis: results from a resting-state fMRI study.

Primary nocturnal enuresis (PNE) is a disease characterized by involuntary urination during sleep after the age of five, causing inconvenience and psychological burden to children and their families. The onset of PNE is related to many factors, and in recent years, delayed central nervous system maturation has been considered one of the important causes of PNE. Previous studies have demonstrated functional changes in multiple brain regions in children with PNE. However, these studies either focused on changes in local brain regions or the functional connection (FC) between specific brain regions, and there is currently a lack of research on the whole brain FC in children with PNE. This study analyzed functional connectivity density (FCD) across the entire brain based on voxels and comprehensively evaluated the global FCD (gFCD), local FCD (lFCD), and long-range FCD (lrFCD). Decreased gFCD and lFCD were found in the left temporal lobe and the right posterior cerebellum in the children with PNE compared with the HC. The FCD values in these regions were negatively correlated with the scores of hyperactivity/impulsivity in the children with PNE. This study may help to reveal the neural mechanisms underlying the onset of PNE in children from a new perspective.

MRI and [18F]FET PET for early response assessment of Nivolumab and Bevacizumab in patients with recurrent high grade astrocytic glioma

Abstract Background In the present study early response assessment by O-(2-[18F]fluoroethyl)-L-tyrosine (FET) positron emission tomography (PET) and contrast enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were investigated in a phase II open-label single-centre study of nivolumab plus bevacizumab for recurrent high grade astrocytic glioma Methods Twenty patients with non-resectable first recurrence of high grade astrocytic glioma after EORTC/NCIC protocol underwent [18F]FET PET/MRI at baseline and after 2 cycles of treatment. Whole brain values of contrast enhancing volume on MRI (CEV), of mean (TBRmean) and maximal tumour-to-background ratio (TBRmax) and of metabolically active volume (MTV) on [18F]FET PET were obtained. Regional changes in [18F]FET uptake were assessed by parametric response mapping (PRM). Prediction of overall survival (OS) and response (OS&amp;gt;11 months) were assessed by Cox and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, respectively. Also, MRI (RANO 2.0) and PET based (PET RANO 1.0) response assessment criteria were compared. Results In ROC analysis responders were separated (p&amp;lt;0.05) from non-responders by lower MTV at follow-up (AUC 0.771, cut-off 18.3 ml), larger decrease in MTV (AUC 0.757, cut-off -5.3 ml), larger decrease in both TBRmax (AUC 0.814, cut-off -0.53) and relative TBRmax (AUC 0.829, cut-off -11%) and smaller PRM progressive volume (AUC 0.843, cut-off 4.0 ml). Change in CEV did not predict response. RANO 2.0 and PET RANO response assessment criteria had similar and only borderline prognostic value. Conclusion The study indicates that [18F]FET PET is superior to contrast enhanced MRI for early response assessment in patients with recurrent high grade astrocytic glioma treated with nivolumab and bevacizumab.

Integrating remote sensing modeling for drought assessment and vegetation monitoring in El Tarf, Algeria: a 40-year analysis

The escalating frequency and intensity of drought events, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, present critical challenges to hydrological resources, ecosystem resilience, and agricultural productivity. In North Africa, and specifically Algeria, comprehending the spatiotemporal patterns of drought is essential for sustainable water resource management and ecological conservation. This investigation focuses on the El Tarf region, located in northeastern Algeria, recognized for its ecological diversity and agricultural relevance. Employing a synergistic methodology, this study integrates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for long-term drought severity evaluation with the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to monitor vegetation phenology and health over time. Utilizing the computational power of Google Earth Engine, we process extensive temporal datasets of SPEI spanning from 1980 to 2023, complemented by high-resolution satellite imagery for NDVI computation. This comprehensive approach facilitates an in-depth analysis of drought dynamics, their severity, and impacts on vegetative cover in El Tarf over the past four decades. Our findings indicate significant long-term drought trends, with notable dry spells occurring between 1994 and 2003. Severe drought events were particularly pronounced in December 2022 (SPI = -2.50) and May 2002 (SPI = -2.2), correlating with substantial precipitation deficits. Although areas experiencing extreme drought have diminished, there has been an increase in moderate drought occurrences, suggesting an uptick in drought frequency, which poses risks to hydrological resources and ecosystem health. These observed patterns align with regional climate change projections, highlighting an urgent necessity for adaptive management strategies in agriculture and water resources.

Prescription trends in Japanese advanced Parkinson's disease patients with non-motor symptoms: J-FIRST.

Non-motor symptoms (NMS) are important factors when selecting treatments for patients with advanced Parkinson's disease (PD). We sought to elucidate the prescribing practices for advanced PD patients with NMS in Japanese clinical practice. We examined the prescription rates and doses of anti-PD drugs, and the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in post hoc analyses of a 52-week observational study of 996 PD patients with wearing-off on levodopa-containing therapy and ≥1 NMS. Dopamine agonists were the most frequently prescribed drugs combined with levodopa-containing drugs, followed by entacapone, zonisamide, istradefylline, selegiline, and amantadine. The daily dose of levodopa-containing drugs, rotigotine, entacapone, istradefylline, and droxidopa, and the levodopa-equivalent dose increased during the observation period. In a subgroup analysis of patients stratified by NMS status (improved/unchanged/deteriorated), the deteriorated group had higher prescription rates of entacapone and istradefylline, whereas the improved group had higher prescription rates of NSAIDs and zonisamide at Week 52. Prescriptions varied by geographical region for anti-PD drugs and by NMS status for NSAIDs. There were significant changes in the prescriptions and dosing of selected anti-PD drugs, especially newer drugs. Anti-PD drug and NSAID prescriptions also varied by changes in NMS status and geographic region.

Urban expansion influences on land use and land cover changes in Kolkata metropolitan region: a geo-spatial study

Urban expansion influences on land use and land cover changes in Kolkata metropolitan region: a geo-spatial study

Preventive treatment effects on brain structures and functions in patients with chronic migraine: A multimodel magnetic resonance imaging study.

Patients with chronic migraine (CM) often exhibit structural and functional alterations in pain-matrix regions, but it remains unclear how preventive treatment affects these changes. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the structural and functional changes in pain-matrix regions in CM patients after 6-month treatment. A total of 24 patients with CM and 15 healthy controls were recruited for this study. Patients were divided into responder group (N = 9) and non-responder group (N = 15). After completing the Migraine Disability Assessment (MIDAS) questionnaire, all patients underwent whole-brain high-resolution T1-weighted images, diffusion-weighted imaging, and resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Whole brain gray matter volume and white matter diffusion indices were analyzed using voxel-based analysis. Structural and functional connectivity analyses were performed to understand brain changes in patients after 6-month preventive treatment. The responder group exhibited significantly higher MIDAS scores than the non-responder group at baseline, but no significant difference between the two groups at follow-up. No significant interval change was noted in gray matter volume, white matter diffusion indices, and structural connectivity in CM patients after 6-month treatment. Nonetheless, the functional connectivity was significantly increased between occipital, temporal lobes and cerebellum, and was significantly decreased between parietal and temporal lobes after 6-month preventive treatment. We concluded that resting-state functional connectivity was suitable for investigating the preventive treatment effect on CM patients.

Regional Sensorimotor Effects of Chiropractic Spinal Manipulation: Preliminary Results From an Experimental Study.

The purpose of this study was to assess the effects of different spinal manipulation (SM) techniques and target segments on a specific dermatome and myotome, when compared with a remote spinal cord segment that served as a control location. Twenty-nine healthy volunteers were randomized to receive instrumental (Activator IV, Activator Methods International Ltd) or manual SM at the C6, C1, and T4 vertebral segments in 3 independent sessions. Pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) and muscle strength were examined at the C6 (test) and L4 (control) dermatomes and myotomes, at baseline and after intervention. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze changes over time and interindividual variability. Pressure pain thresholds significantly increased at both proximal and distal C6 dermatome locations (P < .05), irrespective of the technique and segment of application (P > .2). No significant changes were observed at the L4 dermatome. Muscle strength remained unchanged throughout the study. Multilevel modeling revealed significant associations between increased PPTs along the C6 dermatome (P < .001), whereas the combination of technique and target segment predicted PPT increases at the proximal C6 dermatome. These findings support regional, rather than segmental mechanisms underlying the sensory effects of SM. Specifically, significant increases in PPTs along the C6 dermatome suggest localized effects on pain sensitivity, which may depend on the target spinal region. Further investigation is needed to better understand these regional changes of SM and their potential clinical implications.

Holocene aeolian-fluvial interactions patterns and their response to climate changes in the Paiku Co basin, Southern Tibetan Plateau

Aeolian-fluvial processes are crucial in shaping landforms. Despite the advancements in understanding the sedimentary processes of aeolian-fluvial interactions, the sedimentary patterns of these interactions are complex in spatiotemporal scale, and the records of Holocene small-scale aeolian-fluvial interaction sedimentary is insufficient, especially in the Tibetan Plateau region. Therefore, this study focuses on analyzing the sedimentary patterns of aeolian-fluvial interactions and their response to climate change in the Paiku Co basin of the southern Tibetan Plateau (TP). Through the examination of aeolian-fluvial sequences, Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating is utilized to establish a chronological framework. Furthermore, proxy indices are explored to identify potential sediment models and their reactions to climate change. The findings indicate that fluvial activity predominated during a relatively warm and wet period around 5.1–4.6 ka, while thicker aeolian sands accumulated extensively during 4.6–4.1 ka as the climate transitioned to cold and dry conditions. On a millennial scale, the aeolian-fluvial interaction sedimentation is characterized by alternating deposition of clay layers and medium to fine sand. This sedimentation pattern is predominantly influenced by climate change. Overall, the findings shed light on the complex coupling between aeolian and fluvial processes in response to past climate changes, which has important implications for understanding the landscape evolution and environmental changes in this sensitive high-altitude region.

A prototype early warning system for diarrhoeal disease to combat health threats of climate change in the asia-pacific region

Abstract Ongoing climate variability and change are increasing the burden of diarrhoeal disease worldwide. Meaningful early warning systems with adequate lead times (weeks to months) are needed to guide public health decision–making and enhance community resilience against health threats posed by climate change. Toward this goal, we trained various machine-learning models to predict diarrhoeal disease rates in Nepal (2002–2014), Taiwan (2008–2019), and Vietnam (2000–2015) using temperature, precipitation, previous disease rates, and El Niño Southern Oscillation phases. We also compared the performance of shallow time-series neural network (NN), Random Forest Regressor, artificial nn, gradient boosting regressor, and long short-term memory–based methods for their effectiveness in predicting diarrhoeal disease burden across multiple countries. We evaluated model performance using a test dataset and assessed the accuracy of predicted diarrhoeal disease incidence rates for the last year of available data in each district. Our results suggest that even in the absence of the most recent disease surveillance data, a likely scenario in most low- and middle-income countries, our NN-based early warning system using historical data performs reasonably well. However, future studies are needed to perform prospective evaluations of such early warning systems in real-world settings.

Conceptualization and First Realization Steps for a Multi-Camera System to Capture Tree Streamlining in Wind

Forests and trees provide a variety of essential ecosystem services. Maintaining them is becoming increasingly important, as global and regional climate change is already leading to major changes in the structure and composition of forests. To minimize the negative effects of storm damage risk, the tree and stand characteristics on which the storm damage risk depends must be known. Previous work in this field has consisted of tree-pulling tests and targets attached to selected branches. They fail, however, since the mass of such targets is very high compared to the mass of the branches, causing the targets to influence the tree’s response significantly, and because they cannot model dynamic wind loads. We, therefore, installed a multi-camera system consisting of nine cameras that are mounted on four masts surrounding a tree. With those cameras acquiring images at a rate of 10 Hz, we use photogrammetry and a semi-automatic feature-matching workflow to deduce a 3D model of the tree crown over time. Together with motion sensors mounted on the tree and tree-pulling tests, we intended to learn more about the wind-induced tree response of all dominant aerial tree parts, including the crown, under real wind conditions, as well as dampening processes in tree motion.

Osseous pathologic changes in the thoracic region of the equine vertebral column: A descriptive post-mortem study in three breeds.

Data on equine thoracic pathology hardly exist in breeds other than Thoroughbreds. To describe pathological changes of the osseous thoracic vertebral column in Warmblood horses, Shetland ponies and Konik horses, and to compare prevalence and severity. Descriptive post-mortem study. Computed tomography was used to examine the thoracic vertebral column of 34 Warmblood horses, 28 Shetland ponies, and 18 Konik horses. Osteoarthritis (OA), periarticular osteolysis, osseous cyst-like lesions and fragments of articular processes (APJs), costovertebral and costotransverse joints, soft tissue mineralisation surrounding these joints, intervertebral disc (IVD) mineralisation, impingement of spinous processes (SPs) and spondylosis were scored. APJ aplasia (98%; 58/59) occurred in 14 Shetland ponies. OA predominated in Warmblood horses across all joints (45% vs. 29 and 32%, p < 0.001). OA and periarticular osteolysis were found in particular in the costotransverse joints (p < 0.001) across all breeds. Warmblood and Konik horses had more and severe soft tissue mineralisation than Shetland ponies (2.3%, score 1.5 and 3.2%, score 1.3, respectively, vs. 0.3%, score 0.9, p < 0.01). Mid location was most often affected with highest severity score (4.2%, 1.5, p < 0.001). Konik horses displayed the highest IVD mineralisation (20%, p < 0.001), which notably increased with age (p < 0.001) compared with Warmblood horses (4.5%) and Shetland ponies (1.1%). SPs impingement was absent in Shetland ponies, and most prevalent in Warmblood horses (11.2%, p < 0.001) compared with Konik horses (2.2%). Osseous cyst-like lesions, fragments and spondylosis were minimal in all breeds and nearly absent in Shetland ponies. Clinical histories and macroscopic and histologic examinations were unavailable. Distinct breed differences exist in prevalence and severity of thoracic vertebral column osseous pathologies. Costotransverse joint pathology is more common than APJ pathology in all breeds. Warmblood horses are prone to OA, spondylosis and SPs impingement; Konik horses exhibit significant IVD mineralisation, and Shetland ponies demonstrate a high prevalence of APJ aplasia. Periarticular osteolysis, osseous cyst-like lesions, fragments and soft tissue mineralisation are notably low in Shetland ponies.

Trajectories and drivers signalling the end of agricultural abandonment in Trás-os-Montes, Portugal

Agricultural abandonment has given rise to novel landscape dynamics worldwide. This paper investigates abandonment and post-abandonment dynamics in continental Portugal as a hotspot of landscape change. We mapped the spatial patterns and drivers of recent (1995–2018) land use changes in a remote mountainous region as post-abandonment trajectories, based on detailed land use/land cover data made available by the Portuguese government. We showed that ‘Revegetation’ trajectories, indicative of agricultural abandonment, were still widespread between 1995 and 2007. However, between 2007 and 2018, the landscape was much more stable with ‘Return to agriculture’ as the dominant change trajectory. To understand what drives landscape changes after abandonment, we explored the influence of a wide range of potential biogeophysical and socio-economic drivers on the observed trajectories. We contrasted different landscape outcomes in binary logistic regression models with the potential underlying drivers as independent variables. The regressions revealed that the most significant determinants of these alternating dynamics are existing land use, climate, slope, protection regime and accessibility. The results of the regressions are at times counterintuitive and give important indications of the changing spatio-temporal scales at which these variables exert influence on the landscape outcomes. However, the regression models’ limited accuracies highlight the need for deeper investigation of the socio-economic and historic context of the observed changes. Improved understanding of the (drivers of) alternative dynamics following agricultural abandonment can help inform policy decisions regarding agriculture and cultural landscape preservation.

Глобальні виклики для систем соціальної підтримки: сутність, компонентні ознаки та особливості

The article is devoted to issues of global challenges for social support systems. The relevance of the study is determined by the growing role of global challenges in the socio-economic life of states. The purpose of the article is to analyze the specifics of global challenges characterizing modern social support systems, including the social support system of Ukraine. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the identification of global challenges for social support systems. The basic methods of scientific research used in the article are analysis and synthesis (to identify the specifics of global challenges for social support systems), graphic method (to demonstrate the connection between the global basis of the emergence of global challenges and challenges for the social support system). It has been established that the main global challenges for social support systems are the following: the functional failure of the social support system; growing needs of recipients of social services, benefits, and payments; the transformation of a socially oriented state; the reduction in abilities of states to maintain social support systems. The functional failure of the social support system means its state in which the formal presence of agencies and institutions designed to guarantee the provision of social services, benefits and payments to the population is not accompanied by their effective work, that is, the system of social support does not solve the current social problems of society and becomes a burden for state budget. The most acute challenge for the social support system for Ukraine under war conditions is the growth in the needs of recipients of social services, benefits, and payments, which can occur in two ways: 1) an increase in the needs of existing recipients of social benefits, services, and payments on account of changes in the socio-economic, political, ecological, security situation in the region or objective physiological changes in certain groups of recipients (aging, deterioration of well-being); 2) an increase in the number (or share) of people applying for social support due to changes in the socio-economic, political, environmental, security situation in the region or subjective life circumstances. Closely related to this challenge is another challenge, namely the reduction in states’ ability to maintain social support systems. Particular attention is paid to the causes and potential consequences of the transformation of the concept of a socially oriented state. In addition, the author researched the global basis of challenges for social support systems, which combines the key factors of their occurrence.