Regime Change Research Articles

Changes in the Recruitment of Transylvanian Local Government Representatives (Lord Lieutenants and Prefects) During and After the First World War

The study explores the changes in the Transylvanian Lord Lieutenants’ corps during and after the First World War, using a prosopographical approach. The comparative analysis of the Lord Lieutenants’ and prefects’ corps in 1918-1919 aims to examine the impact of various political and regime changes on the recruitment of these high officials. In the autumn of 1918, one can already talk of a partial change of the elite, since part of the newly appointed Lord Lieutenants had a very different social and family background than their predecessors. When the political status of Transylvania changed, at the end of 1918 and in 1919, it brought further, more radical changes atop the administrative elite: the Hungarian Lord Lieutenants were replaced by Romanian prefects, who did have the necessary qualifications, but who had no prior experience in local government. Keywords: Lord Lieutenant, prefect, elite change, Transylvania, 1918, First World War, recruitment

Multicomponent Synthesis of α-Branched Amines via a Zinc-Mediated Carbonyl Alkylative Amination Reaction.

Methods for the synthesis of α-branched alkylamines are important due to their ubiquity in biologically active molecules. Despite the development of many methods for amine preparation, C(sp3)-rich nitrogen-containing compounds continue to pose challenges for synthesis. While carbonyl reductive amination (CRA) between ketones and alkylamines is the cornerstone method for α-branched alkylamine synthesis, it is sometimes limited by the sterically demanding condensation step between dialkyl ketones and amines and the more restricted availability of ketones compared to aldehydes. We recently reported a "higher-order" variant of this transformation, carbonyl alkylative amination (CAA), which utilized a halogen atom transfer (XAT)-mediated radical mechanism, enabling the streamlined synthesis of complex α-branched alkylamines. Despite the efficacy of this visible-light-driven approach, it displayed scalability issues, and competitive reductive amination was a problem for certain substrate classes, limiting applicability. Here, we report a change in the reaction regime that expands the CAA platform through the realization of an extremely broad zinc-mediated CAA reaction. This new strategy enabled elimination of competitive CRA, simplified purification, and improved reaction scope. Furthermore, this new reaction harnessed carboxylic acid derivatives as alkyl donors and facilitated the synthesis of α-trialkyl tertiary amines, which cannot be accessed via CRA. This Zn-mediated CAA reaction can be carried out at a variety of scales, from a 10 μmol setup in microtiter plates enabling high-throughput experimentation, to the gram-scale synthesis of medicinally-relevant compounds. We believe that this transformation enables robust, efficient, and economical access to α-branched alkylamines and provides a viable alternative to the current benchmark methods.

Coup d'état in Africa and stock market returns: The case of French companies

This article studies the impact of recent coups d'état in French-speaking Africa on the stock market performance of French companies. Using stock prices of 197 French companies over the period September 2020 to September 2023, our results highlight a negative impact of coups d'état on the stock market performance of French companies. We also observe the heterogeneity of these companies' reactions depending on: (i) the country affected by the coup; (ii) the companies' sector of activity; (iii) coups d'état with reshuffle or change of political regime; (iv) pro- or anti-France post-coup actions. In so doing, this article provides the first evidence of the impact of recent coups in Africa outside the affected territories.

Carbon Fluxes from Soils of “Ladoga” Carbon Monitoring Site Leningrad Region, Russia

For the first time, data on the emission of climate-active gases from soils of different types of use of the south taiga sub-zone were obtained. Soils of the boreal belt are key elements of the global carbon cycle. They determine the sink and emission of climate-active gases. Soils near large cities are a major carbon sink, in the face of climate change, soils from sinks can become a source of carbon and contribute significantly to climate change on the planet. Studies of FCO2 and FCH4 fluxes were carried out on the territory of the monitoring site “Ladoga” located in the southern taiga subzone in soils of land not used in agriculture, former agriculture lands, and wetlands. During the chamber measurements, a portable gas analyzer GLA131-GGA (ABB, Canada) was used. The chamber was placed on the soil, after which the concentration of CO2, CH4 and H2O in the mobile chamber was recorded. As a result of the study it was found that the lowest emission of carbon dioxide is characteristic of soils developing on the soils of wetland and is 0.64 gCO2/(m2*year). Which is associated with a high degree of hydrophobicity of the territory and changes in the redox regime. The highest emission of carbon dioxide is registered in soils on the land not used in agriculture and is 4.16 gCO2/(m2*year). This is due to the formation of predominantly labile forms of carbon in the soil, which can be relatively rapidly involved in the carbon cycle and affect the active emission of carbon from the soil. According to the data obtained on FCH4 emission from soils, it was found that soils of land not used in agriculture and former agriculture lands were net sinks, while soils of wetlands were characterized by CH4 source, the emission was from 0.05 to 0.83 gCH4/(m2*year). The results obtained indicate spatial heterogeneity and changes in the carbon cycle within the monitoring site “Ladoga”, which are due to the change of plant communities and habitat type. Monitoring the release of important greenhouse gases in close proximity to major urban areas is an important task in the face of predicted climate change and increasing rates of urbanization.

On greenhouse and icehouse climate regimes over the Phanerozoic

AbstractThroughout the Phanerozoic and more, the Earth has experienced cold and hot periods, which are typically associated with long‐lasting (hundreds of million years, Ma) greenhouse and icehouse climate regimes. Now, most published sea‐level curves report two main maxima in the Cretaceous and Ordovician superimposed on a multitude of short‐term fluctuations. The big humps are shown to be predominantly the results of the plate tectonic configuration, not icehouse and greenhouse regimes, suggesting that the small oscillations are related to continental ice variations. From this point of view, it can be inferred that polar ice caps are present almost all the time, and climate regime changes appear much more frequent and shorter than usually considered and are not well‐documented from glaciogenic deposits. Relying on short‐term oscillations, the volume of continental ice can be retrieved over the Phanerozoic.

Are regime changes always bad economics? Evidence from daily financial data

Abstract Political instability is commonly thought to discourage investment and reduce economic growth. We challenge this consensus by showing that instability does not systematically depress investment. Using an event study approach, we examine daily returns of national financial indices in every country that experienced an irregular regime change subject to data availability. Returns following resignations are large and positive (+4 percent), while those following assassinations are negative and smaller in magnitude (−2 percent). The impact of coups tends to be negative (−2 percent), but we show that a pro-business coup results in large positive returns (+10 percent). We also find evidence that authoritarian or anti-business regime changes are more likely to lead to capital flight than democratic or pro-business changes. The immediate impact of political instability on investment is therefore dependent on the type of regime change and its expected impact on future growth.

The process of personalization in Nicaragua: Lessons from the hybrid regime

This article explores how personalization was formed in Nicaragua under the leadership of Daniel Ortega, focusing on four factors: short-term, long-term, domestic, and international perspectives. Nicaraguan politics are often structured by the country's relationship with the USA and regional powers. However, domestic actors make decisions regarding political regime changes. Therefore, the process of personalization must be considered in both domestic and international politics. This study's analysis unequivocally demonstrates that domestic and international factors have always influenced political regime changes in Nicaragua. However, personalization is primarily formed by domestic factors, with external factors reinforcing domestic movement in Nicaragua. In addition, this study shows that it is challenging to explain the process of Ortega's personalization according to short-term factors such as populism. Instead, it is a long-term factor, specifically the traditional power-sharing method in a duopoly, that pushes Ortega's personalization forward. We conclude that Nicaragua's hybrid regime resulted in personalization.

Tribological Characterization of a Novel Ceramic-Epoxy-Kevlar Composite.

This work aims to explore the effect of side load and rotational speed on the tribological behavior of a novel ceramic-epoxy composite in Kevlar matrix casing lining that is in contact with a rotating drillpipe tool joint (DP-TJ) coated with the same composite. Three rotational speeds (65, 115, and 154 rpm) and three side loads (500, 700, and 1000 N) were considered under water-based mud (WBM) lubrication. Wear depths, volumes, and specific casing wear rates (K) were determined for each combination of speed and load. The wear depth and K were found to increase with an increasing applied side load. However, the specific casing wear rate at the rotational speed of 115 rpm was found to be the lowest among the three speeds. This is mainly due to a probable lubrication regime change from boundary lubrication at 65 rpm to hydrodynamic lubrication with a thick lubricant film at 115 rpm. The digital microscope images were used to determine the wear mechanism, showing that at low speeds, the main mechanism was abrasive wear, but the increase in the speed brought about more adhesive wear. In contrast, the change in the side load does not affect the wear mechanism of the casing. Scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) were used to analyze the surface and composition of the novel material before and after the wear tests.

From Voting Bloc to Fragmentation: The Chinese Opposition Votes in the 2021 Sarawak State Election

This study analyses the voting patterns among the Sarawakian Chinese and their pro-opposition inclination in the 2021 Sarawak State Election (SSE21). It begins by recounting how the national opposition alliances, former Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliances—Barisan Alternatif (BA) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR)—gained popularity among the Chinese voters in Sarawak since the 2006 state elections. The voting trends reveal changes in Chinese voting patterns, from a voting bloc to fragmented votes, and their openness to local opposition parties in the recent state elections. In order to examine the plurality voting pattern and the extent of fragmentation, this research studies two Chinese-majority urban constituencies, Batu Lintang and Bukit Assek in Sarawak. It contends that the Chinese political leanings, including their tendency to embrace regionalism, are profoundly shaped by local and national political developments. In the past two decades, ethnopatronage politics and prevalent corruption practices partly explain the Chinese’s quest for regime change. The Sarawak government’s emphasis on regional identity and multiculturalism in its official narrative nurtures a sense of belonging, which also impacts Chinese identity politics. This article argues that the decision to support minor parties advocating for separatism can be read as strategic voting of the regional minority who feel deprived of their equal rights. It also contends that political fragmentation among the Chinese might persist if PH fails to consolidate its previous support. Otherwise, it spells the decline of Parti Sarawak Bersatu (PSB) and Parti Bumi Kenyalang (PBK). The sustainability of local opposition parties depends on the internal reform of parties. The parties should reduce the influences of personal politics as it tends to breed party-hopping, which places parties’ future or institutional development at risk of uncertainty.

Deposition rate and optical emissions in niobium oxide processes by reactive sputtering

Niobium oxide films find various applications, such as antireflective optical layers, gas sensors, and solar cells. They also show promise for emerging applications such as electrochromic and photocatalytic devices. In order to optimize the deposition of niobium oxide films by RF reactive sputtering, a detailed investigation of the plasma parameters was performed. A pure metallic target and a mixture of Ar and O2 in different proportions were used in the experiments. The deposition power was varied between 120 and 260 W, while the total pressure was kept at 0.67 Pa throughout. Deposition rates, discharge self-bias voltage, and plasma optical emissions were monitored and analyzed. Additionally, computer simulations of the process utilizing existing models were conducted and a comparative analysis with the experimental results was performed. The main findings include mapping the deposition conditions as functions of oxygen flow rate. The flow ranges in which the deposition regime changes from metallic to oxygen contaminated target conditions were identified. The narrow O2 flow range associated with the regime changes was characterized by significant changes in the self-bias voltages and plasma emissions from oxygen, argon, and niobium. The observations evidence the importance of the detailed analysis of the deposition process to get the desired stoichiometry and optimized film properties.

Paleovegetation and environment during deposition of the Late Oligocene sub-bituminous coal in the Bobov Dol Basin (SW Bulgaria) as deduced from petrographic and geochemical characteristics

Coal and carbonaceous shale samples were taken from the Late Oligocene Bobov Dol Basin, SW Bulgaria. Seams Ia, I, IIa+b, III, IV and V from the coal-bearing Bobov Dol Fm. were sampled to provide insights into the peat forming vegetation and depositional environment based on detailed organic petrological and geochemical study.The petrographic composition indicates that both coals and carbonaceous shales contain predominantly terrestrial organic matter with abundant huminite macerals and locally enriched liptinite macerals. Inertinite is rare or absent. Good tissue preservation in seams I, IV and V indicates deposition under wet sedimentary environment, whereas predominance of detrohuminite and lower Tissue Preservation Index (TPI) in seams Ia, IIa+b and III are linked to enhanced humification of the plant remains due to changes in the hydrological regime. The low percent of inertinite and the overall high Gelification Index (GI), however, argue for peat formation under wetter climatic settings, whereas low to moderate ash yields of coal samples indicate organic matter deposition in oligo- to mesotrophic topogenous mires. Reconstructed evolution of the environmental settings during peat formation denotes differences which might be caused by changes in the hydrological regime and tectonic activity.The biomarker composition shows prevalence of gymnosperm-derived sesqui- and diterpenoids, followed by lower concentration of n-alkanes (apart from the carbonaceous shale samples from seam Ia), whereas angiosperm-derived non-hopanoid triterpenoids, acyclic isoprenoids, steroids and hopanoids, are generally present in minor amounts. Diterpenoid composition indicates dominant contribution from Cupressaceae and Pinaceae conifers. Minor amounts of predominantly lupane-type non-hopanoid triterpenoids denote limited development of angiosperm vegetation, presumably mostly related to Betulaceae family. Relative abundance of mid-chain (n-C21–25) n-alkanes, associated with elevated proxy ratio (Paq) furthermore, suggest possible contribution from aquatic macrophytes to peat formation. Very low hopane concentrations and low/moderate ββ/(ββ + αβ) hopane ratios imply minor aerobic bacterial activity under mild acidic conditions. The presence of inorganic carbon suggests that environmental acidity might be controlled by the occasional input of neutral to slightly alkaline ground waters. Moderate sulfur contents and the occurrence of hopenes denote anaerobic bacterial activity after organic matter burial.Low maturity of the organic matter and limited hydrocarbon generation potential is indicated by the low huminite reflectance, hopane (C31 22S/(22S + 22R)) and sterane (αααC29 20S/(20S + 20R)) isomerization ratios, as well as Rock-Eval parameters, Tmax and Production Index (PI).

Erosion mechanism of point bar retreat under the protection of a flexible mattress

Channel retreat can be responsible for the significant loss of banks, farmland, and wetlands, leading to drastic changes in fluvial sediment and local river regimes. Although current studies focus on the erosion process of natural river channels, the mechanism by which revetments, such as the flexible mattress, influence bank evolution is still unclear. Hence, by conducting a generalized model experiment, this study investigates the point bar failure process under the mattress protection, i.e., the episodic event when the soil reaches the static equilibrium state. Specifically, a scour hole develops at the junction between the soft and hard materials, causing mattress suspension on the bank toe’s side wall and resulting in a reduction coefficient for transverse scouring rate ranging from 0.08 to 0.15. Based on the theories of soil mechanics and river dynamics, the critical conditions for point bar instability were deduced, and a mechanical model describing its erosion process under the mattress protection was established. Furthermore, our model calculated the bank morphology and total erosion volume at different periods in the flume experiment, demonstrating a good agreement with the measured data. Additionally, variations in stability coefficient and forces exerted on soil (including shear strength, gravity, and fluid pressure) of the typical sections during point bar retreat were analyzed. Sensitivity analysis of the bank toe stability emphasized the controlling effect of soil mechanical properties and the negative feedback of mattress weight. The results reveal the interaction mechanism between the mattress protection and point bar failure, theoretically guiding the bank erosion strengthening and river management planning.

Can grassroots movements in water conflicts drive socio-technical transitions in water management systems?

Water conflicts open windows of opportunity for grassroots movements to transform water systems. However, academic fields studying social movements in socio-environmental conflicts are not well equipped to deal with complexity, non-linear dynamics, and emergent properties. Therefore, these fields rarely engage with long-term complex social processes and dynamics leading to systemic socio-technical changes. Researching water conflicts driven by grassroots movements, we ask whether and how the latter can influence a socio-technical transition of a water management regime. Through an emblematic water conflict in Mexico, we analyse the grassroots movement's trajectory since the conflict´s inception by following the dynamic process of developing agency. Our findings show that throughout the conflict, the grassroots movement accumulated and mobilized diverse capitals to initiate water management strategies and practices that catalysed change in the water management regime by stalling the implementation of large infrastructures. Eventually, this led to the inception of a sustainable and just transition.

Economics sanction and barley price regime change in Iran

Economics sanction and barley price regime change in Iran

The impacts of registration regime implementation on IPO pricing efficiency

We study the impacts of regime changes and related rule implementations on IPOs' initial return for China's entrepreneurial boards (ChiNext and STAR). We propose that an initial return contains the issuer's fair value and an investors' overreaction and examine their magnitudes and determinants. Our findings reveal an evolution of IPO pricing in response to the progression of regulation changes along five dimensions, and the most efficient regulation regime in Chinese IPO pricing has the following characteristics: 1) registration system, 2) no hard return caps nor trading curbs that restrict the initial return; 3) more specific listing rules for issuers, 4) more strict participation constraints for investors, and 5) more stringent information disclosure requirements for issuers and underwriters. In all contexts, we show that the registration regime governing the STAR IPOs offers the most efficient pricing. We make recommendations on future regulation regime reform for China's entrepreneurial boards.

Children Don't Like Eating What They're Supposed to Eat… A Study of Public Catering for Children in Hungary from a Historical Perspective

AbstractChildhood nutrition is an important element of lifestyle research, since the regularity and nutritional content of our meals as children, and the way in which they are eaten, determine our physical and mental health throughout our lives. Prior to 2018, there was no basic interdisciplinary research on this topic in Hungary, thus to fill the gap, an interdisciplinary research group was established in 2018 at the Institute of Ethnography, which carried out nationwide research. The present study is based on fieldwork undertaken by the author in two schools — the János Lenkey Primary School in Eger (formerly Primary School No. 1) and the Tamás Bolyki Primary School in Ózd — as well as a large amount of information gleaned from questionnaires and interviews. My research was also extended in terms of a historical and geographical perspective: I studied archival sources and expanded the field of my investigations by including Salgótarján, a research location familiar from my earlier research, which provided a vantage point alongside Ózd and Eger, as a third city typical of Northern Hungary. Public catering for children has undergone significant changes in the last six to seven years, although prior to this it had appeared relatively uniform, in line with the ingredients available at the time. The obligation to provide public catering and the general obligation to work, which began in the Rákosi era and culminated in the Kádár era, significantly changed family eating habits. Traditional elements typical of a particular locality disappeared as the globalization efforts of socialism were accomplished. The ever-decreasing amount of time devoted to preparing, cooking, and consuming food moved society in the direction of canteens, fast-food restaurants, and later, after the regime change, global fast-food chains. Education on proper nutrition is not currently part of academic teacher training, thus for want of a better alternative, teachers organize children's school meals based on their own experience and socialization or following the school's regulations (where they exist), without having a unified concept. The number of meals eaten at home has been reduced to light breakfasts, lunches, and dinners, with families mostly sitting down together at the table for dinner, when they often consume ready meals. Lack of contact with foodstuffs and with the person preparing the food has a negative impact on children's psychological development. Relying on extensive basic research and participant observation, and through the joint efforts of specialists from several fields of the social sciences, a significant improvement could be achieved in both public catering and education on healthy nutrition.

On the existence of multiple states of low flows in catchments in southeast Australia

This study investigates whether low flow events in a catchment exhibit a possibility of switching regimes. If this happens, it can result in a catchment experiencing a flow anomaly that is even more extreme than what was historically considered a conventional low flow event. A Hidden Markov Modeling approach was used to identify shifts in the intensity of low flow events in catchments in southeast Australia. We found very strong evidence of low flow intensity exhibiting two distinct states (viz., a normal and an intensified state) for several catchments, providing convincing reasons to believe that low flows can and have undergone regime changes. The periods when the catchments exist in an intensified low flow state were associated with higher maximum and average monthly temperature (Δ≈+2.1,+1°C, respectively) and lower precipitation (Δ≈−25mm, a decline of 30%) compared to periods when these exist in their normal state.

Macroprudential policies and Brexit: A welfare analysis

AbstractBrexit will have implications on financial stability and the implementation of macroprudential policies. The United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Systemic Risk Board. This paper studies the welfare implications of this change of regime. By means of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, I compare the pre‐Brexit scenario with the new one, in which the UK sets macroprudential policy independently. I find that, after Brexit, the UK is better off by setting its own macroprudential policy without taking into account Europe's welfare as a whole.

Forb stability, dwarf shrub stability and species asynchrony regulate ecosystem stability along an experimental precipitation gradient in a semi-arid desert grassland.

Precipitation pattern changes may affect plant biodiversity, which could impact ecosystem stability. However, the effects of changes in precipitation regime on ecosystem stability and their potential mechanisms are still unclear. We conducted a 3-year field manipulation experiment with five precipitation treatments (-40%, -20%, 0% (CK), +20% and +40% of ambient growing season precipitation) in a semi-arid desert grassland to examine the effects of precipitation alterations on functional group stability, species asynchrony, and diversity, and the underlying mchanisms of ecosystem stability using structural equation modelling. Alterations in precipitation had different effects on community biomass and functional group biomass. Moreover, ecosystem stability was mainly driven by forb stability (path coefficient = 0.79). Changes in precipitation had significant effects on soil dissolved inorganic N (P < 0.01) further affecting ecosystem stability through species asynchrony (path coefficient = 0.25). Dwarf shrubs had a stabilizing effect on ecosystem stability (path coefficient = 0.32), mainly via deep roots. Ecosystem stability tended to be lower in the -40% (4.72) and +40% (2.74) precipitation treatments. The common reduction in species asynchrony and stability of forb and dwarf shrub functional groups resulted in lower ecosystem stability under the -40% treatment. The lower stability under the +40% treatment might be ascribed to unimproved dwarf shrub stability. Higher dwarf shrub and forb stability contributed to higher ecosystem stability under normal precipitation changes (±20% treatments) and CK. Species diversity was not a crucial driver of ecosystem stability. Our results indicate that precipitation alteration can regulate ecosystem stability via functional group stability (e.g. forb stability, dwarf shrub stability) and species asynchrony in a semiarid desert grassland.

Drought, temperature, and moisture availability: understanding the drivers of isotopic decoupling in native pine species of the Nepalese Himalaya.

The Himalayas experienced long-term climate changes and recent extreme weather events that affected plant growth and the physiology of tree species at high-elevation sites. This study presents the first statistically robust δ18OTR chronologies for two native pine species, Pinus roxburghii, and Pinus wallichiana, in the lower Nepalese Himalaya. The isotope chronologies exhibited 0.88‰ differences in overall mean isotope values attributed to varying elevations (460-2000m asl). Comparative analysis of climate response using data sets from different sources and resolutions revealed the superiority of the APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) data set calibrated for the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM)-dominated region. Both species exhibited negative correlations with monsoon precipitation and positive correlations with temperature. However, during the peak monsoon season (July-August), daily resolved climate data disentangled statistically insignificant relationships, and revealed that δ18OTR is influenced by atmospheric moisture. Both congeneric species showed a decoupling between the chronologies after 1995. However, no significant change in air moisture origin and monsoon regime between the study sites was observed, indicating a consistent dominant moisture source during different monsoon seasons. Besides, we also observed the decreased inter-series correlation of both δ18OTR chronologies after 1995, with P. wallichiana experiencing a steeper decrease than P. roxburghii. The weakening correlations between and within the chronologies coincided with a regional drought during 1993-1995 in both sites, highlighting the strong regulation of local climate on the impact of regional extreme climate events. Our findings emphasise the importance of employing climate data with optimal spatial and temporal resolution for improved δ18OTR-climate relationships at the intra-annual scale while considering the influence of site-specific local environmental conditions. Assessing climate data sets with station data is vital for accurately interpreting climate change's impact on forest response and long-term climate reconstructions.