Changes In Public Opinion Research Articles

The Diffusion of Tolerance: Birth Cohort Changes in the Effects of Education and Income on Political Tolerance

Political tolerance—the willingness to extend civil liberties to traditionally stigmatized groups—is pivotal to the functioning of democracy and the well‐being of members of stigmatized groups. Although political tolerance has traditionally been more common among American elites, we argue that as tolerance has increased, it has also diffused to less educated and less affluent segments of the population. The relative stability of political attitudes over the life course and the socialization of more recent birth cohorts in contexts of increased tolerance suggest that this diffusion of tolerance occurs across birth cohorts rather than time periods. Using age‐period‐cohort models and more than three and a half decades of repeated cross‐sectional survey data, we find persistent and robust across‐cohort declines in the importance of both income and higher education in determining levels of political tolerance. Declines in the effects of socioeconomic status are evident with tolerance toward all five out‐groups in the analysis—anti‐religionists, gays and lesbians, communists, militarists, and racists—but to varying degrees. These findings fit with a model of changes in public opinion, particularly views of civil and political rights, through processes of cultural diffusion and cohort replacement.

Trends in Perceived Access to Marijuana Among Adolescents in the United States: 2002-2015.

There is concern that changes in marijuana-related policy and public opinion may lead to increased access to marijuana among young people in the United States. However, little research has been conducted on changes in youth's perceptions of marijuana access, and studies have yet to systematically examine trends in perceived access across key sociodemographic and externalizing behavioral subgroups. Using population-based data collected between 2002 and 2015 as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we examined trends in perceived marijuana access among non-Hispanic White, African American, and Hispanic adolescents (ages 12-17, n = 221,412). Following the trend analysis method outlined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we conducted logistic regression analyses to test for secular trends. Between 2002 and 2015, we observed a 27% overall reduction in the relative proportion of adolescents ages 12-17-and a 42% reduction among those ages 12-14-reporting that it would be "very easy" to obtain marijuana. This pattern was uniformly observed among youth in all sociodemographic subgroups (i.e., across age, gender, race/ethnicity, household income) and among youth reporting involvement/no involvement in most measures of substance use (alcohol, marijuana) and delinquency (handgun carrying, attacks). However, perceived very easy access remained stable among youth reporting tobacco use and criminal justice system involvement. Despite the legalization of recreational and medical marijuana in some states, our findings suggest that, with the notable exception of adolescent tobacco users and juvenile offenders, perceptions that marijuana would be very easy to obtain are on the decline among American youth.

No Asylum for the Innocent: Gendered Representations of Salvadoran Refugees in the 1980s

During the 1980s, El Salvador was engaged in a brutal civil war; massacres, torture, and rape pervaded the countryside. This social and economic upheaval created approximately 1.5 million refugees and internally displaced persons throughout Central and North America. Gender is a critical yet understudied aspect of this mass displacement. I analyze humanitarian publications and government documents to examine the discursive gendering of Salvadoran refugees on the international stage. I argue that U.S. activists portrayed Salvadorans as feminized civilian victims in need of rescue by the paternalistic United States to change public opinion of the Salvadoran Civil War and its refugees. These gendered and infantilized constructions belie the reality that the vast majority of Salvadoran refugees to the United States were men of military age. I examine the Salvadoran refugee from a new perspective that foregrounds gender as a category of analysis.

Public opinion - regular nature of the formation

At the present stage of political life public opinion endures the increase of its role and significance thus determining the relevance of social and philosophical analysis of the public opinion phenomenon. This article aims to represent more profoundly the process of public opinion formation, and to substantiate its regular character. Theoretical knowledge of ontological foundation of the phenomenon under consideration requires the reliance on laws of the dialectic: unity and struggle of opposites (while creating public opinion social subjects together denote a unity in relation to the subject of dispute, and at the same time they are in conflict regarding its evaluation), transition from quantitative to qualitative changes (as public opinion changes and acquires new qualities at each stage of formation), negation of the negation (although public opinion endures typical formative stages, it nevertheless retains the holistic nature). Due to the analysis of public opinion definitions made by well-known representatives of internationl and national science (F. Allport, Ye.Noel-Neumann, O.Uledova, V.Shatun etc.) it was determined that the phenomenon of public opinion has subject-object nature, its formal trait is social activity and information and emotional interaction. It was established that public opinion is formed in accordance with the facts of human life, under conditions when human needs and interests are implemented due to the influence of the environment, public relations, and other realities of social life. However, the essential role in this process also belongs to the fundamental understanding and background assumptions, standards, ideas and values created by public conscience. So it is proved that the formation of public opinion is possible due to the interaction of two major components - a social being and social consciousness. It is the interaction of rational, emotional and conative components of social subjects and objects of public opinion. The relationship of social consciousness and social life is stable, objective, substantial, internal, necessary and repetitive, and, therefore, it appears as the main pattern of public opinion formation.

Fleeing War or Threatening Peace? A Research Note on the Changing Perceptions about Migrants to Germany

The so-called ‘refugee crisis’ of 2015-2016 poses a substantial challenge to European migration policies and ignited a new debate on migration across Europe. Germany, in particular, has seen a massive influx of migrants, yet a culture of welcome prevailed and the support for anti-migration groups remains lower than in neighboring countries. The paper explores the changing framingof refuge and (im)migrationin Germanyduring the refugee crisis. While in the past the image of a refugee deserving asylum was clearly defined on political grounds, the increasing number of economic migrants challenges the perception of refuge among Germans. The framing of migrants became more nuanced, shifting from a collective to an individual notion. Following negative incidents, frames for specific groups shifted further, prompting politicians to introduce some policy changes that tightened access. Using a framework of deservingness, the paper looks at the framing ofdifferent migrant groups and subsequent changes of perceptions of deservingness among citizens. Three key criteria of deservingness are studied, the personal responsibility for one’s situation, the level of need, and the identity of recipients.Such analysis contributes to a deeper understanding of changes in public opinion, supplementing quantitative work.

What it Means to Do Gender Differently: Understanding Identity, Perceptions and Accomplishments in a Gendered World

Recent changes in policies, laws, and public opinion have brought discussions about gender and gender-related topics to the forefront of cultural discourse. In spite of increased acceptance of gender nonconformity in public laws and Supreme Court rulings, we continue to see acts of hostility towards people who express their gender in nontraditional ways on both macro-system and individual levels. Viewing questions surrounding the issues of gender through an identity-oriented lens may shed light on some aspects of this complex topic. The present research utilizes social psychological and gender theories in order to better understand and explore the apparent contradictions in the gender discourse. Through the analysis of survey data on gender identity gathered from a university student population, we seek to illuminate the complex interactions that occur between self-meanings, perceptions, and behaviors related to gender identities. Specifically, we analyze: 1) how self-views of gender relate to perceptions of non-conforming gender displays, 2) how self-views relate to doing gender differently and 3) how these variables relate to perceptions of inclusiveness and safety. We find that self-meanings seem to not relate to perceptions or experiences, but that doing gender differently is related to increases in experiences discrimination and aggressions as well as perceptions about safety and inclusion. Implications and future research options are also discussed.

A new approach for evaluating climate change communication

Many scholars study when climate change communication increases citizen engagement. Yet, past work has largely used public opinion-based measures of engagement to evaluate alternative frames. In this paper, we argue for a new approach to evaluation, which is premised on research on the policy-making process showing that space on the political agenda and, ultimately, policy change are more likely to arise in response to changes in both public opinion and collective political action. Thus, we argue that alternative frames should be evaluated based on their consequences for both. This is especially critical given that frames can have divergent effects on attitudes and behavior. Using a combination of field and survey experiments, we apply our approach to evaluate two frames related to climate change risks. We find that they heighten people’s concern about climate change yet decrease their rate of political action to express that concern. Our results suggest caution with regard to these frames in particular and that, more generally, frames that might seem advantageous when examining public opinion may not be when political behavior is analyzed.

Josephine Baker: Artist and dissident

Abstract Josephine Baker’s debut in Paris coincides with a key moment of great change in public opinion in defining French culture and French national identity. After World War II, Parisians were still under the charm of magical colonial exoticism. The French showed a great interest in Josephine Baker because of her futuristic style hybridized with African, American and French influences. This article considers colour (defining French modernism as a plurality of race), colonial modernity (French and American immigration arts), exoticism, and feminism (a new policy within the civil rights movement) within the French political and historical context. The article focuses on multiple identities, fragmented between political engagement and postmodern aesthetics. Dedicated to changing the world of dancing, Josephine’s exotic image stands today as a universal symbol of resistance to national, cultural and colonial realities.

Effects of Others’ Comments and Intervention of Site Managers and Journalists on Public Opinion Perception and Opinion Change

Effects of Others’ Comments and Intervention of Site Managers and Journalists on Public Opinion Perception and Opinion Change

Social Shaping of the Politics of Internet Search and Networking: Moving Beyond Filter Bubbles, Echo Chambers, and Fake News

Global debate over the impact that algorithms and search on shaping political opinions has been increasing in the aftermath of controversial election results in Europe and the US. Powerful images of the Internet enabling access to a global treasure trove of information have shifted to worries over the degree to which those who use social media, and online tools such as search engines, are being fed inaccurate, fake, or politically-targeted information that could distort public opinion and political change. There are serious questions raised over the political implication of any biases embedded in the algorithms that drive search engines and social media. Do digital media biases shape access to information shaping public opinion? To address these issues, we conducted an online survey of stratified random samples in seven nations, including Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the US. We asked Internet users how they use search, social media, and other media, for political information, and what difference it makes for them. The findings cast doubt on technologically deterministic perspectives on search, such as filter bubbles. For example, our findings show that search is among an array of media consulted by those interested in politics. Internet users are not trapped in a bubble on a single platform. Another deterministic narrative is around the concept of echo chambers, where social media enable users to cocoon themselves with likeminded people and viewpoints. However, most of those interested in politics search for and double check problematic political information, and expose themselves to a variety of viewpoints. Thus, prevailing views on search and politics not only over-estimate technical determinants, but also underestimate the social shaping of the Internet, social media, and search. National media cultures and systems play an important role in shaping search practices, along with individual differences in political and Internet orientations. The findings suggest there are disproportionate levels of concern, often approaching panic, over the bias of search and social media, and that targeted interventions could help reduce the risks associated with fake news, filter bubbles, and echo chambers.

Same-Sex Marriage and Backlash: Consensus, Conflict, and Constitutional Culture

Did backlash to judicial decisions play a destructive role in debates over same-sex marriage, as is so often claimed? This article questions assumptions about consensus and constitutionalism that undergird claims about judicial backlash, and explores some constructive functions of conflict in our constitutional order. The debate over same-sex marriage illustrates that conflict, constrained by constitutional culture, can forge meanings and bonds that strengthen the constitutional order. Constitutional culture, on this account, includes the understandings about role that guide interactions among citizens and officials who disagree about the Constitution’s meaning. Analyzing the long-running conflict over same-sex marriage with attention to these role-based understandings leads us differently to evaluate the power and limits of judicial review. In this article I argue that the backlash narrative and the consensus model of constitutionalism on which it rests simultaneously underestimate and overestimate the power of judicial review. The Court’s decision in Obergefell was possible not simply because public opinion changed, but also because struggle over the courts helped change public opinion and forge new constitutional understandings. Even so, Obergefell has not ended debate over marriage, but instead has channeled it into new forms. Conflict of this kind is enabled, and constrained, by the role-based understandings of constitutional culture. A conclusion invokes anxieties attending the election of Donald Trump to illustrate how critical the perpetually contested role constraints of constitutional culture are in sustaining our constitutional order.

Public opinion change after the Fukushima nuclear accident: The role of national context revisited

This study explores how national context moderated change in support for nuclear energy after the Fukushima accident. The following national contextual variables are tested: geographical distance, nuclear energy production status, freedom of the press, and the building of new nuclear reactors. The results illustrate that previous research has misunderstood the moderating role of national context on opinion change after the Fukushima accident. A survey conducted shortly after the accident with more than 23,000 respondents from 41 countries has shown that geographical distance from the accident mattered: Contradicting a previous study, the decrease in support for nuclear energy was stronger in countries closer to Fukushima. In addition, support for nuclear energy decreased more in countries where new nuclear reactors were under construction. The country's nuclear energy production status and press freedom did not determine opinion change after the Fukushima accident. The non-effect of freedom of the press on opinion change contradicts the role of media after a focusing event as described in the literature. Overall results demonstrate a limited effect of national context on opinion change following a focusing event. Hence, national context provides only limited information to policy makers on how to respond to a nuclear accident.

Citizens’ policy mood, policies and election outcomes in Italy

ABSTRACTThis article investigates the relationship between changes in Italians’ policy preferences and parties’ and governments’ responsiveness. It analyses whether there is a congruence between citizens’ policy preferences, on one side, and parties’ and governments’ ideological positions on the other. The study represents the first attempt to estimate the Italian ‘policy mood’ adopting a methodology already used for other political systems. We infer public preferences from more than 200 survey questions, administered more than 550 times between 1981 and 2015, which ask respondents to ‘take a side’ on several controversial domestic policy issues. Empirical results sustain the idea that public opinion acts as a thermostat to balance governments’ policy goals; and, at the same time, they provide somewhat stronger evidence for the argument that governments adapt their preferences to changes in public opinion. Finally, it is shown that there is a relationship between citizens’ preferences and their voting choices.

The Panic of 1907 and the High Tide of Progressivism (A)

In June 1913, President Woodrow Wilson confronts a legislative deadlock over terms to define a new Federal Reserve Bank for the United States. The recent Panic of 1907 triggered a major civic reaction that sought to dispense with a 100-year-old antipathy to central banking. Now, Wilson must decide how best to harness the civic reaction in framing a new central bank. Wilson's dilemma occurs in the midst of a dramatic regime shift in American politics. The rise of Populists and Progressive politicians in reaction to the rapid transformation of America in the Gilded Age marks 1913 as a historic pivot point. It is useful to consider how the Panic of 1907 contributed to that pivot and how the public subsequently reacted to the panic. Excerpt UVA-F-1781 Rev. Sept. 14, 2020 The Panic of 1907 and the High Tide of Progressivism (A) In early June 1913, President Woodrow Wilson contemplated legislative deadlock over a bill to establish a central bank in the United States. The law under consideration was titled An Act to Provide for the Establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to Furnish an Elastic Currency, to Afford Means of Rediscounting Commercial Paper, to Establish a more Effective Supervision of Banking, and for Other Purposes (also known as the Federal Reserve Act). A disagreement between prospective sponsors of the bill, Representative Carter Glass and Senator Robert Owen, threatened to derail its progress through Congress (see Exhibit1 for brief biographies of Wilson, Glass, and Owen). It had been in development since early January and represented a massive change in public opinion and legislative sentiment. Wilson had ordered Congress to remain in session during what was proving to be a long, hot Washington, DC, summer in order to push through this legislation. Now, the whole effort seemed threatened by intransigence. He called Glass and Owen to the White House to resolve their differences and restore momentum to the effort. Wilson reflected on the competing versions of the bill and how they compared to legislation presented 20months earlier by a Republican, Senator Nelson Aldrich (see Exhibit1). He wondered how well the Federal Reserve Act might forestall financial panics in the future. And how would this act reflect the popular will? What would a central bank accomplish that the US Treasury and clearinghouses couldn't? How did the Federal Reserve Act complement the Progressive impulse? He reflected on the rapid change in public opinion regarding a central bank and on the possible influence of the recent Panic of 1907. Wilson wanted to exploit the momentum of the first year of his presidency. He was on the way to establishing a remarkable record of new laws and policies, consistent with Progressive ideals: . . .

Web Topic Analysis of the Two-child Policy in China

Since the Two-child Policy was enacted by The Chinese government in October 2015, two children in a family have become an important question related to people's livelihood and have triggered a wide discussion. As an important platform to discuss and monitor public opinion changes, Sina Weibo plays an important role in public opinion analysis. This paper chooses two-child policy as search topic to crawl 19751 related microblogs in Sina Weibo, uses topic over time (TOT) model of the microblogs to make topic analysis, to extract what people focus on the Internet. The results of analysis show that most people cause extensive concern of the country's follow-up policy, including economy, education and other aspects of the follow-up policy.

Tinkering with a tanker—slow evolution of a Swedish ecosystem approach

The ecosystem approach is a salient policy paradigm originating from a scientific understanding of the reality of complex ecosystem dynamics. In this article, we investigate how Swedish national marine policies and practice between 2002 and 2015 have changed towards an ecosystem approach. Government documents, the scientific literature, institutional changes, changes in legislation, pilot projects, and changes in science and public opinion were reviewed and combined with information from expert interviews. We found that changes in policy and practice have slowly stimulated the development of an ecosystem approach, but that limited political leadership, challenges of coordination, different agency cultures, and limited learning appears to be key barriers for further and more substantial change. We compare and contrast the Swedish national process of change with other documented experiences of implementing an ecosystem approach and find that several countries struggle with similar challenges. Substantial work still remains in Sweden and we provide suggestions for how to stimulate further and more substantial change at the national level.

Brief exposure to Pope Francis heightens moral beliefs about climate change

In his recent encyclical letter Laudato Si’: On Care for Our Common Home, Pope Francis issued a moral appeal to the global community for swift action on climate change. However, social science research suggests a complex relationship between religious concepts and environmental attitudes, raising the question of what influence the pope’s position may have on public opinion regarding this polarizing issue. In a national probability survey experiment of U.S. adults (n = 1212), we find that brief exposure to Pope Francis influenced the climate-related beliefs of broad segments of the public: it increased perceptions of climate change as a moral issue for the overall sample (and among Republicans in particular) and increased felt personal responsibility for contributing to climate change and its mitigation (among Democrats). Moreover, prior awareness of the pope’s views on climate change mattered, such that those who indicated greater awareness of the pope’s position showed stronger treatment effects, consistent with a priming account of these effects. Results complement recent correlational findings and offer further evidence of the Vatican’s influence on climate change public opinion.

Intra-Party Dissent as a Constraint in Policy Competition: Mapping and Analysing the Positioning of Political Parties in the German Refugee Debate from August to November 2015

The large influx of refugees into Germany in late 2015 gave rise to a period of intensified party competition over a single issue: refugees. This paper examines German parties’ reactions to this issue suddenly becoming highly important and voter preferences shifting to a more restrictive stance. It does so by analysing the parties’ positions on the issue from August to November 2015 based on statements from more than 1000 quality newspaper articles. The analysis shows that there was no uniform shift in line with the change in public opinion but a pattern of polarisation. Moreover, converging party position changes sparked intra-party criticism that was in turn followed by divergence – a pattern observable for the Green Party as well as for the Christian Democrats. Altogether, these findings suggest that policy motives, which induce intra-party dissent, impede parties opportunistically trying to follow shifts in public opinion in the short term.

Cycles in public opinion and the dynamics of stable party systems

We study a dynamic model of elections where many parties may enter or exit political competition. At each election a new political leadership arrives for each party. The leadership cannot choose the party's platform (ideological identities are fixed) but must decide whether or not to contest the election. Contesting elections is costly and this cost is higher if the party has recently been inactive. The distribution of voters' ideal policies, or public opinion, changes over time via a Markov process with a state independent persistence parameter. We characterise stable party systems where the set of contestants is invariant to the recent most observed opinion. We show that stable party systems exist only when public opinion is sufficiently volatile, while highly persistent moods lead to instability and change in the party system whenever public opinion changes.

Perceptions of Environmental Change and Climate Concern Among Idaho’s Farmers

ABSTRACTClimate change public opinion research has identified conservative political ideology as the primary predictor of skepticism about climate change’s anthropogenic causes. Most farmers in Idaho are politically conservative, but they are also a unique group for whom observing their environment is part of daily life and work. We use data from in-depth interviews with 30 Idaho farmers to examine the relationship between observations of specific environmental changes and climate concern. We find that while most farmers report noticing changes in precipitation patterns, growing season length, and winter temperatures, few farmers connect these with long-term global climate change. These findings have two important implications: 1) direct experience, even in the form of disruption to an individual’s economic security, is not enough to overcome the influence of political ideology on climate change beliefs, and 2) acknowledging climate variation is not sufficient to convince individuals that the changes are produced by human activities.