Price Changes Research Articles

Understanding the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020

This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks—deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroeconomic conditions—measured by the unemployment gap, the output gap, and the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment—and the pass-through into core inflation from past headline shocks. We conclude that the international rise and fall of inflation since 2020 largely reflected the direct and pass-through effects of headline shocks. Macroeconomic conditions generally played a secondary role. In the United States, estimated price pressures from strong macroeconomic conditions had been greater than in other economies but have eased.

IMPLEMENTATION OF A DYNAMIC PRICING SYSTEM IN RETAIL: AN ANALYTICAL REVIEW OF THE PRACTICES OF RUSSIAN COMPANIES

Over the past few years, the conditions and nature of doing business for Russian companies have changed dramatically. The processes of procurement, logistics, product sales, accounting and other business processes are automated. The development of artificial intelligence technology and the growing volume of data are additional growth drivers for the company. Within the framework of this article, an analytical review of the practices of applying the pricing system in retail of Russian companies was conducted. The pricing process is key, which allows you to directly influence the main economic indicators of the company’s activities, since sales volume, profit, demand for products, inventories of inventory resources can be regulated by means of competent changes in prices for goods. Dynamic pricing is gaining great popularity among retailers, which leads to the expansion of patent activities in terms of software and models for automating pricing, including using machine learning. In this article, the authors reviewed some of the most popular offers on the market for the introduction of dynamic pricing systems and analyzed them, revealed the main features and identified common features of building automated dynamic pricing models. The practices of implementing dynamic pricing systems in Russian companies were also investigated. The results obtained allow us to draw conclusions about the importance of using automated pricing systems in retail in modern conditions, their capabilities and application problems.

Income Elasticity of Demand for Healthcare and Change Over Time: Across the Income Groups in India

The study computes the income elasticity of out-of-pocket healthcare expenditures (OOPEs) of Indian households across the income groups. Using data from the National Sample Survey Organization for the 71st (2014) and 75th (2018) rounds, a log-linear model with splines estimates the elasticity of healthcare expenditure across different income segments. The analysis controls for demographic variables and employs dual deflation to adjust for price changes. The elasticity magnitude depends upon the marginal propensity to OOPE (MP-OOPE), which is inconsistent across the income groups. The random MP-OOPE is due to the non-linear relationship between income and healthcare expenditure. The data revealed increased income (proxied by household consumption expenditure) and decreased average OOPE in wave 2. Despite this, households in the bottom income bracket experience a rise in elasticity, and those at the top observe reduced elasticity in wave 2. The income group-wise MP-OOPE suggests uncertain healthcare demand patterns and evidence of widening healthcare inequality. Poorer households either face low-magnitude inelastic healthcare demand, leaving their healthcare needs unmet, or experience high-magnitude inelastic demand, leading to financial hardship. Policies should aim to reduce out-of-pocket healthcare expenses for vulnerable groups. Expanding public-funded risk pooling mechanisms like Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana would be crucial in addressing this issue.

A Prediction Model of Gold Price Change Against US Dollar Based on BP Neural Network

A Prediction Model of Gold Price Change Against US Dollar Based on BP Neural Network

Research on the Prediction of the Price Change of the US Against the JPY Based on Neural Network Modeling

Research on the Prediction of the Price Change of the US Against the JPY Based on Neural Network Modeling

Prediction of USD/RMB Price Change Based on BP Neural Network

Prediction of USD/RMB Price Change Based on BP Neural Network

The sensitivity of agricultural biogas plants to changes in energy prices in Poland

In Poland, despite ambitious plans from 15 years ago, when it was assumed that by 2020, an agricultural biogas plant would be standard in every commune, the potential of agricultural biogas has not been used due to the lack of stable legal regulations and financing programmes for the construction of the plants. The situation has now changed due to new forms of support systems, which motivated the authors to compare two agricultural biogas plants operating in the certificate system and the support system in the form of feed-in premiums. Moreover, the authors pointed to differences in the number of agricultural biogas plants and their capacity by voivodeship due to changes in legal conditions in force in two periods: from 1 January 2011, to 30 June 2016, and from 1 July 2016, to 19 January 2024. Based on the research methods used ‒ including Earnings Before Interest, Taxes Depreciation and Amortisation, the Internal Rate of Return, risk matrix and data analysis in spatial terms ‒ it was indicated that: 1. agricultural biogas plants are characterised by very high sensitivity related to the probability of risk in the case of investment costs, substrate prices and changes in energy prices; 2. financial support is important at the stage of construction of a biogas plant, which largely makes it possible to shorten the payback period and thus increase the willingness of future investors to invest in biogas plants and 3. in the periods analysed, significant differences were noted in the spatial location of biogas plants due to trends towards lower-power biogas plants, which is probably dictated by the constant and predictable premium system in the new support system.

The high price U.S green economy: A specific factor modeling

The high price of energy due to the green energy policy will cause adjustments across the U.S. economy is predicted in the present computable general equilibrium with specific factors model. This includes energy input, especially electricity with capital and labor to produce manufacturing and service goods. 2022 labor, energy, and sector-specific capital input data on U.S. manufacturing, service, and agricultural sectors is applied to specific factors of the computable general equilibrium model. The model, which assumes constant returns, full employment, competitive pricing, and perfect labor mobility across industries hypothesizes a range of price changes due to project potential adjustments in factor prices and outputs. The U.S manufacturing sector is revealed to have a higher degree of noncompetitive pricing for energy factor inputs, but not on labor and capital as advocates for green energy tout by the new technology. The policy has virtually no significant impact on the service and agricultural sectors. The high price of green energy will cause an elastic decrease in all energy inputs. The output from energy-intensive manufacturing only rises in the long run by 4 % while service and agriculture fall. Clear winners are the owners of energy resources through their price-searching behavior. This includes the government, which owns a large share of hydrocarbon reserves.

Empirical Investigation of a Sufficient Statistic for Monetary Shocks

Abstract In a broad class of sticky-price models the non-neutrality of nominal shocks is captured by a simple sufficient statistic: the ratio of the kurtosis of the price change distribution over the frequency of price changes. We test the sufficient statistic proposition using data for a large sample of products representative of the French economy. We first extend the theory to allow for empirically relevant monetary shocks with a transitory predictable component. We then use the micro data to measure kurtosis and frequency for about 120 PPI industries and 220 CPI categories. We use a Factor Augmented VAR to measure the industries response to monetary shocks, under alternative identification schemes. The estimated degree of non-neutrality correlates with the kurtosis and the frequency consistently with the predictions of the theory. Several robustness checks are discussed.

Assessing the implications of imported electricity equipment in Indonesia: A comprehensive ECM approach for short-term and long-term analysis

This study aims to explore the implications of imported electrical equipment in Indonesia, analysing both short-term and long-term impacts using a quantitative approach. The research focuses on understanding how various economic factors, such as domestic production, international pricing, national income, and exchange rates, influence the country’s import dynamics in the electrical equipment sector. Employing an Error Correction Model (ECM) for regression analysis, the study utilises time-series data from 2007 to 2021 to delve into the complex interplay of these variables. The methodology involves a comprehensive analysis using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests to assess the stationarity of the data. This approach ensures the robustness of the ECM, which is employed to analyse the short-term and long-term effects of the identified variables on electrical equipment imports in Indonesia. The results reveal significant relationships between these economic factors and import levels. In the short term, imports are shown to be sensitive to changes in domestic economic conditions and international market prices, while in the long term, the country’s economic growth, reflected through GDP, emerges as a significant determinant. The findings suggest that Indonesia’s electrical equipment import policies must adapt highly to domestic and international economic changes. In the short term, a responsive approach is required to manage the immediate impacts of market fluctuations. The study highlights the importance of aligning import strategies with broader economic growth and environmental sustainability goals for long-term sustainability. Policymakers are advised to focus on enhancing domestic production capabilities, reducing import dependency, and ensuring that environmental considerations are integral to import policies. This study contributes to understanding import dynamics in a developing country context, offering valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders in shaping strategies for economic growth and sustainability in the electrical equipment sector. The findings underscore the need for a balanced, data-driven approach to managing imports, aligning short-term responses with long-term strategic objectives for Indonesia’s ongoing development and industrial advancement.

From greedy grocers to carbon taxes and everything in between:

In Canada, the task of explaining food prices falls to a handful of grey literature reports that shape media coverage and public understanding and carry significant political and policy influence. We performed an in-depth analysis of fifty-one of these influential reports, including thirty-nine reports by Statistics Canada (including Consumer Price Index reports and other studies) and twelve reports from the Canada Food Price Report (CFPR) series. Our goal was twofold: 1) to identify and classify the various explanations given for food price changes, and 2) to evaluate the scientific rigor of these explanations. We identified 232 total explanations for food price changes, spread across seven thematic categories and thirty-two sub-categories. We find that most claims made in these reports are scientifically incomplete (only 28.6% of all claims meet established criteria for the completeness of scientific arguments). We also identify a lack of comprehensiveness in the areas of emphasis and the claims being presented and drivers being explored, particularly with respect to issues presently at the centre of food price discourse in Canada, such as the agency of grocers and other supply chain actors, corporate growth imperatives, and climate change. Considering the importance of food prices and food security to prosperity and well-being in Canada, we conclude with a series of recommendations for

Tobacco industry pricing strategies during recent tax adjustments in Mexico: evidence from sales data

IntroductionPrevious studies have identified pricing strategies that the tobacco industry employs to try to minimise the impact of tobacco taxation, but these studies are mostly about high-income countries. This research...

Combine Study of Technical Indicator Bollinger Bands and Moving Average Convergence Divergence in Nepal Stock Exchange Limited

Stock price forecasting involves predicting a company's future condition based on time series analysis. Investors need precise forecasts of future indices or stock price changes to address the Buy-Sell-Hold problem effectively. Data were collected for Nepal Stock Exchange Limited, Nepse Alpha, and Chukul. For this study, data were collected over six months (December 2023 to May 2024), utilizing technical trading tools like Bollinger Bands (BB) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Combining BB and MACD on a single chart yields better results than analyzing each indicator separately. This integrated approach provides a more thorough understanding of market dynamics, improves decision-making accuracy, and leads to more profitable outcomes. Integrating the analysis of BB and the MACD on one chart can provide more benefits than using each indicator independently. This method offers market behavior and improves decision-making precision, resulting in more profitable outcomes.

Property tax‐induced mobility and redistribution: Evidence from mass reappraisals

AbstractI investigate the effect of property tax changes on homeowner mobility and voted tax rates using a panel of assessment and sales records in Ohio. I use redistributive mass reappraisals that cause changes in an individual's tax price of local services to examine how changes in homeowner's tax bills influence mobility. I find that a $0.10 increase in the price per dollar of services leads to a 5% increase in the likelihood of sale with no change in foreclosure probability. I also find suggestive evidence of increased voted tax rates when the ratio of median to mean taxable value decreases.

Economics of face masks through the lens of Chinese consumers during COVID-19: demand, supply, price, and willingness-to-pay

ABSTRACT Although the COVID-19 pandemic is no longer a life-threatening pandemic, it has left behind economic challenges worldwide. During the outbreak, many governments mandated the use of face masks in public areas, resulting in its demand and market price immediately skyrocketing. The government may intervene in markets through price, which may lead to market misallocation. This article aims to investigate how consumers form their beliefs about face mask price changes based on their estimations of the market demand and supply, both with and without government intervention, and assess their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for face masks during the pandemic. The data was collected through an online survey of Chinese consumers in 2020. The results provide valuable insights for policymakers to better understand consumers’ price expectations and WTP for face masks, enabling more effective government interventions to maintain market stability while ensuring consumer access to face masks.

Эффективность производства зерна в условиях изменения климата в Зауралье

Abstract. The economic efficiency of grain production is determined by the level of return on the resources spent by the cost of the products received. Weather factors play an important role. Climate changes in the Trans-Urals are primarily associated with the warming of the spring and summer months, increased aridity of the growing season and the expansion of the boundary of this process from the southeast to the northwest. The contrast in moisture availability of different years is combined with uneven precipitation in the region throughout the year. The profitability of farms in the production of grain crops is characterized by the same heterogeneity. The purpose of the study is to establish the economic efficiency of grain production in the context of climate change using the example of the Trans-Urals. The tasks are to analyze the impact of climate change on the yield of grain crops in the region, to analyze the efficiency of resource use by agricultural enterprises; using the example of the most highly profitable farms to identify factors to increase the efficiency of grain production. The methods of monographic and statistical analysis of data from scientific literature, open statistical sources, agronomic and economic reports of agricultural enterprises were used. The scientific novelty of the research consists in studying the efficiency of grain production in the context of climate change and in relation to the volatility of grain prices and means of production. The results of the study showed that since the early 2000s, despite a significant increase in the use of fertilizers, the growth of grain yields has stopped, which is primarily due to the deterioration of plant moisture conditions. At the same time, an increase in costs, although it leads to an increase in productivity, but to a lesser extent, as a result, the cost of grain increases, and the profitability of production decreases. Enterprises have been identified that, in the conditions of climate change and high volatility of grain prices and resources, have found ways to efficiently produce grain: replace solid fertilizers with liquid fertilizers, apply effective, including agrotechnical, methods of tillage and plant protection, use highly productive varieties, obtaining the highest profitability in the region.

Impact of agricultural and energy prices on the biofuels market through a VAR-VEC model

This study uses a Vector Autoregression - Error Correction Model to examine the price dynamics of Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) in the Portuguese market. The importance of this research is that failure to meet the targets of the Renewable Energy Directive jeopardizes Portugal's efforts to improve the sustainability of the transport sector. The results suggest that FAME prices are susceptible to fluctuations in agricultural commodities, ethanol, and fossil fuels, particularly diesel. Specifically for soy, FAME prices did not return to baseline levels by the end of the period, indicating a persistent impact. The volatility of FAME prices in response to ethanol and agricultural commodity prices underscores the need for strategic interventions to optimize these relationships. In the case of ethanol, this correlation could be strengthened, while in the case of agricultural commodities, feedstock diversification is essential to decouple FAME from first-generation biofuel sources and avoid competition with food crops. Moreover, biodiesel FAME, which serves as substitute and a complement to diesel, has a price sensitivity to changes in diesel prices. Policies and incentives to diversify feedstocks and promote advanced biofuels are essential for maintaining FAME's competitiveness and mitigating diesel price impacts.

Drug Prices After Patent Expirations in High-Income Countries and Implications for Cost-Effectiveness Analyses

Understanding how patent expirations affect drug prices is crucial because price changes directly inform accurate cost-effectiveness assessments. This study investigates the association between patent expirations and drug prices in 8 high-income countries and evaluates how the changes affect cost-effectiveness assessments. To analyze how the expiration of drug patents is associated with drug price changes and to assess the implications of these price changes for cost-effectiveness evaluations. This cohort study performed an event study design using data from 8 high-income countries to assess the association between patent expiration and drug prices, and created a simulation model to understand the implications for cost-effectiveness analyses. The simulation cost-effectiveness model analyzed the implications of including or ignoring postpatent price dynamics. Drug patent expiration. Change in drug prices and differences in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios when considering vs ignoring postpatent price dynamics. The sample comprised 505 drugs undergoing patent expiration in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, UK, and US. Price decreases were statistically significant over the 8 years after patent expiration, with the fastest price declines observed in the US: 32% (95% CI, 24%-39%) in year 1 after patent expiration and 82% (95% CI, 71%-89%) in the 8 years after patent expiration. Estimates for other nations ranged from a decrease of 64% in Australia to 18% in Switzerland in the 8 years after expiration. The cost-effectiveness simulation model indicated that not accounting for generic entry into the market may produce biased incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 40% to -40%, depending on the scenario. The findings of this cohort study demonstrate that drug prices were reduced substantially after patent expirations in high-income countries. Therefore, incorporating information on patent status and pricing dynamics in cost-effectiveness assessment analyses is necessary for producing accurate economic evaluations of new drugs.

A theory of net capital flows over the global financial cycle

We develop a theory to account for the relationship between global asset price changes and net capital flows. We show empirically that countries that have a net debt of safe assets experience a rise in net outflows of safe assets (i.e. pay off safe asset debt) when global asset prices fall. This is accomplished through a rise in total net outflows (an increase in net savings) and a drop in net outflows of risky assets (the net sale of foreign risky assets). We develop a multi-country portfolio choice model that can account for these facts. The theory relies on cross-country heterogeneity in the share of an investor’s portfolio invested in risky assets. A global drop in risky asset prices changes relative wealth across countries due to this heterogeneity, which leads to changes in net flows of safe and risky assets. The model is applied to 20 advanced countries and calibrated to reflect observed cross country heterogeneity of net foreign asset positions of safe and risky assets. The implications of the calibrated model for net capital flows are quantitatively consistent with the data.

Preference dynamics and risk-taking incentives

This study explores the relationship between executive compensation and the preference dynamics of managers and shareholders. Our analysis centers on the theoretical prediction that changes in firms' asset value can differentially affect the risk-taking preferences of the two groups, potentially influencing the optimal compensation policy. Utilizing local real estate price changes to identify variations in firms’ asset value, we find that a decrease in asset value leads to more risk-taking incentives in compensation, and this effect is more pronounced in firms that are more likely to be influenced by the hypothesized mechanisms. In the second empirical setting, we provide corroborating evidence using a natural experiment involving disaster-induced negative shocks to the firm fundamentals. Collectively, our findings suggest that the design of compensation contracts facilitates incentive alignment by incorporating the dynamic preferences of the contracting parties.