Change In Portugal Research Articles

Institutional incentives for strategic voting and party system change in Portugal

Looking more closely at the way people form expectations about the possible outcome of the election in their electoral district I will provide evidence for the first time that strategic voting can be observed and predicted even in PR systems with large districts magnitudes, such as in Portugal. Employing district-level data from 19752002 I estimate that a party, who is expected to win no seat, will be strategically deserted on average by about 3 per cent of the voters. This number does systematically vary with the district magnitude of each district. Nevertheless even in Portugal's largest electoral district, Lisbon, strategic voting can be observed to have a systematic impact on parties vote shares. Moreover there is evidence that strategic voting can partly account for the majoritarian trend that can be observed within the Portuguese party system.

National Assessment of Human Health Impacts of Climate Change in Portugal: Approach and Key Findings

National Assessment of Human Health Impacts of Climate Change in Portugal: Approach and Key Findings

Human Health Impacts of Climate Change in Portugal: Study Approach and Key Findings

Human Health Impacts of Climate Change in Portugal: Study Approach and Key Findings

National assessment of human health effects of climate change in Portugal: approach and key findings.

In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution–related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used climate scenarios from two regional climate models for a range of future time periods. The annual heat-related death rates in Lisbon may increase from between 5.4 and 6 per 100,000 in 1980–1998 to between 8.5 and 12.1 by the 2020s and to a maximum of 29.5 by the 2050s, if no adaptations occur. The projected warmer and more variable weather may result in better dispersion of nitrogen dioxide levels in winter, whereas the higher temperatures may reduce air quality during the warmer months by increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated the future risk of zoonoses using ecologic scenarios to describe future changes in vectors and parasites. Malaria and schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic in Portugal, are more sensitive to the introduction of infected vectors than to temperature changes. Higher temperatures may increase the transmission risk of zoonoses that are currently endemic to Portugal, such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and Mediterranean spotted fever.

Party system change in Portugal, 19742005: the role of social, political and ideological factors

The main goal of this article is to analyse the role of social, political and ideological factors in explaining party system change in Portugal during the democratic period (April 1974June 2005). We begin with the evolving trends in the party system format, and their main effects on the patterns of parties' interactions as well as on the functioning of the political system. This first approach will enable us to divide the democratic period into two distinct phases and an interlude. Following this, we will analyse the dimensions and strength of policy competition between the parties before, finally, analysing the impact of social, political and ideological factors on party system change in Portugal.

The fragile foundations of european spatial planning in Portugal

This article is about the influence of the European Spatial Development Perspective (ESDP) and its follow-up processes in the Portuguese spatial planning system. The Portuguese planning tradition is based on a clear separation between urban planning and regional development policy as well as on a dominant blueprint approach. Strategic spatial planning is still at an infancy stage and environmental concerns, recently introduced largely under the influence of the European Union, adopted essentially a restrictive and reactive stance. The article starts with a brief historical overview of the main characteristics of the spatial planning system in Portugal. This overview provides the context for the analysis of the influence of the ESDP in Portugal. The article acknowledges that the ESDP has had so far a limited impact on spatial planning practices but it ends with a prospective analysis of spatial planning change in Portugal which further supports the argument for the likelihood of (future) closer links between national and supra-national processes of change.

Social background and age at menarche in Portuguese university students: a note on the secular changes in Portugal.

Menarcheal age of a sample of Portuguese university students (n = 3366), born between 1972 and 1983, age 18-23 years, was analyzed. The influence of parents' educational level and occupation, family size, birth order, and degree of urbanization of girl's locality of residence during childhood and adolescence were analyzed as well as secular trend in the Portuguese population. Mean age at menarche for girls born in 1983 was 12.32 years. Parents' educational level and occupation did not show any significant influence on mean age at menarche. Place of residence during childhood years and adolescence showed a significant effect on mean age at menarche, with girls from rural places with a later age at menarche than those who spent their childhood or adolescence in urban areas (P <or= 0.01 and P <or= 0.05 for childhood and adolescence, respectively). Family size and birth order showed the highest effect. Girls born in small families, with one child, matured earlier (12.32 years) than those born in large families with four or more children (12.67 years), (P <or= 0.01). Also, girls that were first-born had an earlier menarche (12.41 years) than those who were third or later (12.58 years, P <or= 0.01). Regression analysis selected family size and place of residence in childhood as the most important determinants of mean age at menarche in our university students. In this sample, from 1972 to 1983, mean age at menarche remained stable. When we considered published data from all the Portuguese population we found a decrease in mean age at menarche from 15 years for girls born in 1880 to 12.44 for those born in the 1980s. This decrease was the result of great improvements in the social and economic living conditions that occurred in Portugal especially after the 1970s concerning nutrition and health care, among many other environmental factors.

Rigidity and Flexibility: Patterns of Labour Market Policy Change in Portugal and Spain, 1981–96

Liberalization of labour market policy is a notoriously difficult political enterprise. This article presents a modified scheme that codes and aggregates labour market policy change. The model is applied to the cases of Spain and Portugal, where, for different reasons, liberalization of labour market policy has been high on the policy agenda since the early 1980s. Despite the presence of majority governments for much of this period, the results indicate that liberalization of labour market policy frequently fails and is often delayed. Furthermore, successful liberalization often occurs in policy packages where liberalization in one area of labour market policy is traded for greater rigidity in another

Regional climate change in Portugal: precipitation variability associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation

Four major circulation patterns, associated with daily precipitation in Portugal, are classified from daily sea level pressure fields over the northeastern Atlantic and western Europe, based on the K-means clustering algorithm coupled with principal component analysis. A rainy pattern is clearly identified with a probability of rain of 74.6%, as well as two distinct dry patterns, one prevailing in summer and the other occurring frequently in winter; a blocking-like pattern with a probability of rain of 36.8% has also been identified. These patterns are quasi-stationary, normally persisting for 1 week and sometimes even for 1 month, especially the dry ones; they represent the principal weather regimes associated with precipitation in Portugal. Interannual variations in monthly precipitation associated with the circulation patterns are also investigated; results show that these variations match fluctuations in the frequencies of occurrence of both the rainy and the dry patterns. The decreasing trend of March monthly rainfall in southern Portugal is closely related to corresponding trends in the frequencies of both the rainy pattern and the summer dry pattern. Long term trends are not significant either in other monthly rainfall sequences or in the frequencies of different circulation patterns. Interannual variations seem, in most months, to be quasi-periodic. Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is performed on these sequences to detect quasi-periodic oscillations. Relationships between oscillations in rainfall and in frequencies of occurrence of circulation patterns are studied. Results show that four weather circulation patterns or weather regimes are important for investigating regional climate change in Portugal and its relationship with variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society

Economic restructuring, social re-composition and recent urban changes in Portugal

The productive restructuring process has affected more than just the economic field, because its effects have been felt on urbanisation processes, on social relations, and on the spatial organisation of society. Starting from the ‘metapolis’ concept, developed by Ascher (1995), we analyse the evolution of new forms of urban space in Portugal, arguing that new urban forms generate new social inequalities and, in extreme cases, social exclusion. Portugal is a semi-peripheral country that combines certain of the trends in social and economic organisation common to core countries, with certain trends more common in the developing world. Thus the understanding of urban change in Portugal is a complex task, made more difficult by the rapidity of processes since the mid 1970s. The Lisbon Metropolitan Area has been deeply affected by the productive restructuring process. The role of economic and urban policies in the Lisbon region is discussed, and an assessment is made of certain measures aimed at solving economic and social problems.

Mass Migrations in Europe: The Legacy and the Future

Introduction - Europe and the future of mass migration, Russell King and Sture Oberg. Part 1 Background: mass migration and economic restructuring, Anthony Fielding European international migration 1945-1990, Russell King migrants, institutions and politics, Anthony Fielding. Part 2 Legacies: immigrants and the social geography of European cities, Paul White from itinerant worker to immigrant?, Hans Heinrich Blotvogel, Ursula Mueller-ter Jung and Gerald Wood the legacy of migration - some evidence from France, Philip Ogden multicultural Holland, Frans Dieleman immigrants and the extreme-right vote in Europe and Belgium, Christian Vandermotten and Jean Vanlaer what mass migration has meant for Turkey, Gunduz Atalik and Brian Beeley a place in the sun - return migration and rural change in Portugal, Carminda Cavaco. Part 3 The present and the future: Europe in the context of world population trends, Sture Oberg south to north migration in a Mediterranean perspective, Armando Montanari and Antonio Cortese ethnicity, nationality and migration potentials in Eastern Europe, Sture Oberg and Helena Boubnova new trends in mass migrations in Germany, Franz-Josef Kemper Third World immigrants in Italy, Armando Montanari and Antonio Cortese skilled international migration in Europe, John Salt and Reuben Ford Irish graduate emigration, Ian Shuttleworth.

Diplomatic Affairs and International Law, 1910

The year 1910 continued the era of peace and comparative quiet in international affiairs which the world has enjoyed since the end of the Russo-Japanese War. The electoral and party struggles in Great Britain, involving fundamental constitutional issues, the revolutionary changes in Portugal, the political and social unrest in Spain, the development of the constitutional régime in Turkey, are indeed all facts which considered separately are of the highest interest and which in their joint effect will exert a profound influence also in the field of international relations. But as to these latter themselves, they were free from startling features and dramatic climaxes such as delight the journalist and the war-scare monger. This is not to say that things of the highest significance were not accomplished, that understandings of moment were not given definite form during this year; even some unexpected things came about, but, on the whole, international relations were placid and followed the quiet course of natural development. Yet to the careful observer of international affairs the situations and tendencies that have appeared to the view during this year are of the highest significance. Indeed it may almost be said that some entirely new principles in the action of world politics have been revealed through the groupings and relations of the powers as effected in 1910.