Changes In Habitat Suitability Research Articles

Modelling macroinvertebrate hydraulic preferences in alpine streams

AbstractAlpine streams face rapid hydrological changes due to the effects of global warming, glacier melting, and increased water uses such as hydropower production. Defining environmental flows (e‐flow) is crucial to mitigate the ecological impacts of flow alterations. Among e‐flow assessment methods, hydraulic habitat models predict changes in habitat suitability for aquatic species under different flow scenarios. They couple hydraulic models of stream reaches with biological models relating the abundance of taxa to microhabitat hydraulics. However, there is currently no suitable biological models for alpine, often fishless streams. In this study, we develop biological models for dominant macroinvertebrate taxa in alpine streams and compare their responses to hydraulics with those published in lowland streams. Using data collected in 150 microhabitats along a gradient of shear stress within five alpine streams, we performed generalized linear mixed models relating macroinvertebrate abundance to microhabitat hydraulics (shear stress, flow velocity, Froude number and water depth). We developed biological models for 41 taxa, and observed significant microhabitat selection for shear stress (18 taxa), velocity (20), Froude number (21), and depth (11). Most of them presented consistent responses across studied alpine streams, with shear stress and velocity as the main drivers. For common taxa, shapes of macroinvertebrate responses to hydraulics were comparable with those observed in lowland streams. Nevertheless, taxa preferred slightly lower shear stress in alpine streams compared to lowland streams, probably due to high‐fine sediment and oxygen concentrations, especially for taxa feeding on autochthonous organic matter. Many (23%) abundant taxa are rheophilic in alpine streams, thereby threatened by flow reduction, including the glacial stream specialists Diamesinae and Rhithrogena delphinensis, which will be also affected by glacier retreat. Combined with hydraulic models, our biological models will facilitate more robust e‐flow assessments, thereby reducing the impacts of flow alterations on alpine aquatic ecosystems.

Predicting the future climate-related prevalence and distribution of crop pests and diseases affecting major food crops in Zambia

Environmental factors determine the suitability of natural habitats for crop pests and often facilitate their proliferation and that of the crop diseases they carry. Crop pests and diseases damage food crops, significantly reducing yields for these commodities and threatening food security in developing, predominantly agricultural economies. Given its impact on environmental factors, climate change is an important determinant of crop pest and disease distribution. This study uses Targeting Tools, a climate suitability analysis and mapping toolkit, to explore the potential impact of climate change on select environmental factors linked to crop pest and associated diseases’ proliferation. Based on the existing literature, prediction modeling was performed on 21 key pests and diseases that impact the major food crops for Zambian consumption. Future changes in habitat suitability for these crop pests and diseases were mapped based on their optimal temperature and relative humidity conditions for proliferation. Results project that there will be an overall increased geographical spread of suitable habitats for crop pests (and as follows, crop diseases) that thrive in warmer environments. By the 2030s, crop pests and diseases will increasingly spread across Zambia, with a higher likelihood of occurrence projected under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. Crop pests and diseases that thrive in cooler environments will experience decreasing habitat suitability in the 2030s, but will transition to a slower decrease in the 2050s under RCPs 2.6 and 4.5. Overall crop pest and disease habitat suitability will continue to rise slowly in the 2050s; RCP 8.5 shows an increased habitat suitability for crop pests and diseases that thrive in warm environments, with a decreased likelihood of occurrence for crop pests and diseases that thrive in cooler environments. The results highlight the need for future-facing, long-term climate adaptation and mitigation measures that create less suitable microclimates for crop pests and diseases.

Coastal Melaleuca wetlands under future climate and sea-level rise scenarios in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam: vulnerability and conservation

Melaleuca wetland ecosystems play crucial roles in ecology and human livelihood, yet the ecosystems are vulnerable to climate change and relative sea-level rise (SLR) impacts. Documents and research on climate change and SLR impacts on coastal Melaleuca wetlands in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, are currently limited. Therefore, the present study aimed to identify changes in habitat suitability for a coastal Melaleuca wetland species in response to different future climate change and SLR scenarios, in the West Sea of the Mekong Delta, with the aid of an ensemble species distribution model (SDM) and the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM). Melaleuca species occurrence records, bioclimatic and eco-physiological variables were utilized to predict potential distribution of the species in response to current and future climate scenarios (i.e. RCP4.5 and 8.5) for the year 2070. Wetland maps for 2020, a digital elevation model (DEM) and localized site-specific parameters (i.e. historic trend of SLR, erosion, subsidence and overwash) were utilized as input data for SLAMM to simulate spatial distribution of Melaleuca/forested wetlands under the two SLR scenarios. The final habitat suitability for the Melaleuca wetland species was identified based on these two resultant datasets, climatic suitability and spatial distribution of the wetlands. Simulated results suggested mean losses in suitable habitat of 29.8% and 58.7% for stable and subsidence scenarios, respectively, for the year 2070 in comparison to the baseline scenario. SLR combined with considerable subsidence rate was suggested as one of the main drivers responsible for the habitat suitability loss. The findings obtained from the current work are useful sources for planning conservation areas for the Melaleuca wetlands, to protect and preserve the ecosystems and their important services under future climate and SLR scenarios.

Prediction of Native Seed Habitat Distribution According to SSP Scenario and Seed Transfer Zones: A Focus on Acer pictum subsp. mono and Quercus acuta

Acer pictum and Quercus acuta are native species recommended for restoration. To restore ecosystem functions and maintain natural ecosystems, it is suggested to deploy well-adapted and locally adapted plant material, and this notion is gaining interest. Studying how species change in response to climate change is an important part of forest restoration planning. Our method uses climate data to define the habitat range of species and to identify regions with relatively similar climates through Seed Transfer Zones (STZs). Potential habitat suitability changes of A. pictum and Q. acuta were identified under various environmental scenarios using seven climatic factors and five topographical factors. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to predict potential habitat suitability in current and future (1980–2100) climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). STZs are maps of areas with comparable climates and have been used to determine the climates of potentially habitable areas. This helps to minimize the maladaptation of seed movement within the same area. As a result, A. pictum growth increased along the southern coastal area and drainage was the paramount factor influencing A. pictum distribution. By checking the climate of regions with high habitability in STZs (Winter Minimum Temperature (WMT) 15–20 °F, Annual Heat: Moisture (AHM) 16–19 °C/m zone, WMT 20–25 °F, AHM 16–19 °C/m located in the zone), Q. acuta was shown to move northward with climate change centering on the southern coastal area. Additionally, Annual Precipitation (Bio12) was the most significant factor influencing Q. acuta distribution. In confirming the climate of areas with high habitability in STZs, we verified that habitat density was high in the WMT 10–15 °F, AHM 19–21 °C/m zone and WMT 20–25 °F, AHM 19–21 °C/m zone. This study establishes that the potential distributions of A. pictum and Q. acuta are affected by climate change. It supplies evidence for ecological restoration and sustainable development, and can formulate future conservation and management plans for economically valuable species.

Aerobic metabolic scope mapping of an invasive fish species with global warming.

Climate change will exacerbate the negative effects associated with the introduction of non-indigenous species in marine ecosystems. Predicting the spread of invasive species in relation to environmental warming is therefore a fundamental task in ecology and conservation. The Baltic Sea is currently threatened by several local stressors and the highest increase in sea surface temperature of the world's large marine ecosystems. These new thermal conditions can further favour the spreading of the invasive round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), a fish of Ponto-Caspian origin, currently well established in the southern and central parts of the Baltic Sea. This study aims to assess the thermal habitat suitability of the round goby in the Baltic Sea considering the past and future conditions. The study combines sightings records with known physiological models of aerobic performance and sea surface temperatures. Physiological models read these temperatures, at sighting times and locations, to determine their effects on the aerobic metabolic scope (AMS) of the fish, a measure of its energetic potential in relation to environmental conditions. The geographical mapping of the AMS was used to describe the changes in habitat suitability during the past 3 decades and for climatic predictions (until 2100) showing that the favourable thermal habitat in the Baltic Sea has increased during the past 32 years and will continue to do so in all the applied climate model predictions. Particularly, the predicted new thermal conditions do not cause any reduction in the AMS of round goby populations, while the wintertime cold ranges are likely expected to preserve substantial areas from invasion. The results of this research can guide future monitoring programs increasing the chance to detect this invader in novel areas.

Changes in habitat suitability for wintering dabbling ducks during dry conditions in the Central Valley of California

AbstractIn arid and Mediterranean regions, landscape‐scale wetland conservation requires understanding how wildlife responds to dynamic freshwater availability and conservation actions to enhance wetland habitat. Taking advantage of Landsat satellite data and structured and community science bird survey data, we built species distribution models to describe how three duck species, the Northern Pintail (Anas acuta), Green‐winged Teal (Anas crecca), and Northern Shoveler (Anas clypeata), respond to freshwater supply and food resources on different flooded land cover types in the Central Valley of California. Specifically, our models compared duck habitat suitability between the wettest and driest conditions in each month from September through April. Using abundance‐weighted boosted regression trees, we created three sets of species occurrence models based on different covariates: (1) near real‐time (hereafter “real‐time”) covariates in which duck observations were matched to the water availability within the 16‐day window of a Landsat observation, (2) a combination of real‐time covariates and waterfowl food resource covariates describing annual corn and rice biomass and managed wetland moist soil seed yield estimates derived from Landsat data, and (3) long‐term average covariates—the most common approach to species distribution modeling—in which long‐term average surface water availability was used. We modeled the monthly occurrence of three duck species as a function of surface water availability, land cover type, road density, temperature, and bird data source. We found that dry conditions result in reduced habitat suitability, with the biggest reductions in November through January and in agricultural fields; in contrast, suitability of flooded wetland habitat was relatively robust to surface water availability. When models of habitat suitability based on long‐term average climate conditions were compared to models based on real‐time conditions, the highest long‐term suitability values occurred in areas where suitability was high regardless of whether it was a wet or a dry year. While all models performed well, the inclusion of crop and wetland plant yield covariates resulted in slightly higher model performance. Overall, species distribution models created using data on the environmental conditions present at the time of bird observations can aid conservation efforts under extreme conditions over large spatial scales.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Biogeography of Three Amnesic Shellfish Toxin Producing Diatom Species

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are considered one of the main risks for marine ecosystems and human health worldwide. Climate change is projected to induce significant changes in species geographic distribution, and, in this sense, it is paramount to accurately predict how it will affect toxin-producing microalgae. In this context, the present study was intended to project the potential biogeographical changes in habitat suitability and occurrence distribution of three key amnesic shellfish toxin (AST)-producing diatom species (i.e., Pseudo-nitzschia australis, P. seriata, and P. fraudulenta) under four different climate change scenarios (i.e., RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) up to 2050 and 2100. For this purpose, we applied species distribution models (SDMs) using four abiotic predictors (i.e., sea surface temperature, salinity, current velocity, and bathymetry) in a MaxEnt framework. Overall, considerable contraction and potential extirpation were projected for all species at lower latitudes together with projected poleward expansions into higher latitudes, mainly in the northern hemisphere. The present study aims to contribute to the knowledge on the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of toxin-producing microalgae species while at the same time advising the correct environmental management of coastal habitats and ecosystems.

Rarity, geography, and plant exposure to global change in the California Floristic Province

AbstractAimRarity and geographic aspects of species distributions mediate their vulnerability to global change. We explore the relationships between species rarity and geography and their exposure to climate and land use change in a biodiversity hotspot.LocationCalifornia, USA.TaxaOne hundred and six terrestrial plants.MethodsWe estimated four rarity traits: range size, niche breadth, number of habitat patches, and patch isolation; and three geographic traits: mean elevation, topographic heterogeneity, and distance to coast. We used species distribution models to measure species exposure—predicted change in continuous habitat suitability within currently occupied habitat—under climate and land use change scenarios. Using regression models, decision‐tree models and variance partitioning, we assessed the relationships between species rarity, geography, and exposure to climate and land use change.ResultsRarity, geography and greenhouse gas emissions scenario explained >35% of variance in climate change exposure and >61% for land use change exposure. While rarity traits (range size and number of habitat patches) were most important for explaining species exposure to climate change, geographic traits (elevation and topographic heterogeneity) were more strongly associated with species' exposure to land use change.Main conclusionsSpecies with restricted range sizes and low topographic heterogeneity across their distributions were predicted to be the most exposed to climate change, while species at low elevations were the most exposed to habitat loss via land use change. However, even some broadly distributed species were projected to lose >70% of their currently suitable habitat due to climate and land use change if they are in geographically vulnerable areas, emphasizing the need to consider both species rarity traits and geography in vulnerability assessments.

Projecting future climate change impacts on the distribution of the ‘Octopus vulgaris species complex’

IntroductionHistorically considered to be a single cosmopolitan species, the so called Octopus vulgaris species complex (OVSC) is now recognized to be a group of (at least) six cryptic species: O. americanus (in the west Atlantic), O. vulgaris (in the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea), O. aff. vulgaris (in the region of South Africa), O. tetricus (southeastern Oceania), O. sinensis (northwestern Pacific), and O. djinda (western Australia). The potentially different environmental preferences of this highly cryptic species complex may result in distinct consequences under future environmental conditions.MethodsThe present study employed species distribution models (SDM) using MaxEnt to investigate potential changes in habitat suitability and geographical distribution of the OVSC in the future (i.e., 2050, and 2100), across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, CMIP5).ResultsDifferential responses were observed in the OVSC species analyzed. Specifically, O. vulgaris and O. tetricus exhibited a severe loss in distribution across their predicted range; O. americanus exhibited projected extirpation close to the equator, with limited expansion towards the poles; O. aff. vulgaris was projected to lose half of its current distribution; O. sinensis exhibited moderate losses, with projected increases in northern areas; and finally, O. djinda exhibited limited losses to its distribution. Except for O. sinensis, increasing RCP severity exacerbated changes in mean habitat suitability and projected distribution gains and losses.DiscussionUltimately, this study provides information on the potential biogeographical effects of marine climate change on a key worldwide ecological and economic resource to further disentangle the effects over each OVSC species, with the goal of assisting toward the sustainable management of octopus species at the global scale.

Suitability of Natura 2000 sites for threatened freshwater species under projected climate change

Abstract As part of the world's largest coordinated network of protected areas, Natura 2000, European Union member states designate special areas of conservation (SACs) to maintain or achieve favourable conservation status for imperilled aquatic species listed under Annex II of the Habitats Directive. Long‐term suitability of SAC habitats is potentially challenged by continuing climate change. To examine this emerging threat to aquatic species conservation, the habitat suitability of designated SACs (n = 8,221) for 24 Central European freshwater species (18 teleosts, two lampreys, two crayfish and two bivalves) was assessed under current and projected end‐of‐century climate using environmental niche models calibrated on species occurrences reported under the Habitats Directive (n = 33,995). Potential future conditions included three climate‐change scenarios representing a gradient from effective climate protection measures to a worst‐case warming scenario. Habitat suitability of SACs was consistently calculated as high under present climate but projected to decline severely for two‐thirds of the species under future climate conditions, with the magnitude of decline generally paralleling that of projected climate change. Under high emission scenarios, one third to more than half of the species were predicted to face unsuitable conditions in ≥75% of SACs. Predicted change in habitat suitability varied across biogeographical regions, with Alpine SACs often undergoing lower or no decline in predicted suitability. Given the discrepancy between the location of currently designated SACs and predicted areas of suitable habitat under projected end‐of‐century climate, climate change can be expected to undermine the long‐term effectiveness of currently protected areas. Fostering climate resilience of freshwater habitats within SACs, restoring stream connectivity among SACs, assisted migration to newly suitable SACs where natural dispersal is not possible, as well as designation of new protected areas within climate refugia represent key actions to overcome this potential future conservation gap.

Snow limits polecat Mustela putorius distribution in Sweden

Many species show range expansions or contractions due to climate change induced changes in habitat suitability. In cold climates, many species that are limited by snow are showing range expansions due to reduced winter severity. The European polecat Mustela putorius occurs over large parts of Europe with its northern range limit in southern Fennoscandia. However, it is to date unknown what factors limit polecat distribution. We thus investigated whether climate or land‐use variables are more important in determining the habitat suitability for polecats in Sweden. We hypothesized that 1) climatic factors, especially the yearly number of snow days, drive habitat suitability for polecats, and that, 2) as the number of snow days is predicted to decline in the near future, habitat suitability in northern Sweden will increase. We used a combination of sightings data and a selection of national maps of environmental factors to test these hypotheses using Maxent models. We also used maps of future climate predictions (2021–2050 and 2063–2098) to predict future habitat suitability. The number of snow days was the most important factor, negatively determining habitat suitability for polecats, as expected. Consequently, the predictions showed an increase in suitable habitat both in the current distribution range and in northern Sweden, especially along the coast of the Baltic Sea. Our results suggest that the polecat distribution is limited by snow and that reduced snow cover will likely result in a northward range expansion. However, the exact mechanisms for how snow limits polecats are still poorly understood. The potential range expansion might result in a population increase of the Scandinavian polecat population, in contrast to many populations elsewhere in Europe, where numbers are declining. Due to polecat predation, the expansion of the species might have cascading effects on other wildlife populations.

Predicting the changes in suitable habitats for six common woody species in Central Asia.

Climate change over the past decades has significantly altered global hydrothermal conditions and caused an evident shift in species distribution. Predicting species distribution patterns and identifying their influencing factors will be essential in developing coping strategies to prevent species extirpation and extinction. Yet, environmental factors affecting the distribution of woody species in Central Asia remain largely unknown. Here, I used the MaxEnt model to predict the current distributions and future distribution under three SSP-RCP scenarios of six common woody species in Central Asia. The results indicated a good performance of the MaxEnt model. Precipitation of driest month and annual mean temperature were the dominant factors affecting species distribution. For the species with wide ecological niches, i.e., Acer negundo and Rosa chinensis, the suitable areas showed an evident expansion trend under future scenarios. In addition, a trend toward higher elevation was found for the species that grew at high altitudes (1600-3200m). However, the average elevation of suitable area for A. negundo and R. chinensis firstly increased but then decreased under future scenarios. Even though the areas with high species diversity increased from 0.59% under the current situation to 0.82% and 0.81% under ssp245 in 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, respectively, species diversity showed an apparent loss in parts of the northwest and southeast areas under ssp370 and ssp585. This study can guide susceptible habitat protections under climate change.

Tundra shrub expansion in a warming climate and the influence of data type on models of habitat suitability

ABSTRACT Warming across the low Arctic is increasing tundra vegetation productivity and facilitating the expansion of upright shrubs. We modeled the effects of warming on habitat suitability in green alder, dwarf birch, Labrador tea, bog bilberry, and lingonberry and assessed the influence of data type (true absence or pseudo-absence) on species distribution models (SDMs). We generated SDMs using the two absence data types under current (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) climate projections. Our results show that warming leads to range expansion of all shrubs, though responses vary in magnitude and extent, with mean increases in suitability ranging from 0.080 (Labrador tea) to 0.369 (lingonberry) with true absences. Differences in driving variables and suitability projections suggest that physiological and ecological variability between species mediate responses to warming. Between data types, we observed inconsistencies in model performance, suitability projections, and variable importance. Bog bilberry and lingonberry exhibited larger differences in suitability (0.201 and 0.288, respectively), whereas alder showed similar responses (difference of 0.01). These results are important to consider when assessing changes in habitat suitability or identifying environmental or climatic determinants of species’ distributions. We suggest further development of open data repositories, facilitating access to true absence data to support conservation and land use planning.

Climate-induced habitat suitability changes intensify fishing impacts on the life history of large yellow croaker (Larimichthys crocea).

Intense fishing pressure and climate change are major threats to the fish population and coastal fisheries. Larimichthys crocea (large yellow croaker) is a long‐lived fish, which performs seasonal migrations from its spawning and nursery grounds along the coast of the East China Sea (ECS) to overwintering grounds offshore. This study used length‐based analysis and habitat suitability index (HSI) model to evaluate the current life‐history parameters and overwintering habitat suitability of L. crocea, respectively. We compared recent (2019) and historical (1971–1982) life‐history parameters and overwintering HSI to analyze the fishing pressure and climate change effects on the overall population and overwintering phase of L. crocea. The length‐based analysis indicated serious overfishing of L. crocea, characterized by reduced catch, size truncation, constrained distribution, and advanced maturation causing a recruitment bottleneck. The overwintering HSI modeling results indicated that climate change has led to decreased sea surface temperature during L. crocea overwintering phase over the last half‐century, which in turn led to area decrease and an offshore‐oriented shifting of optimal overwintering habitat of L. crocea. The fishing‐caused size truncation may have constrained the migratory ability, and distribution of L. crocea subsequently led to the mismatch of the optimal overwintering habitat against climate change background, namely habitat bottleneck. Hence, while heavy fishing was the major cause of L. crocea collapse, climate‐induced overwintering habitat suitability may have intensified the fishery collapse of L. crocea population. It is important for management to consider both overfishing and climate change issues when developing stock enhancement activities and policy regulations, particularly for migratory long‐lived fish that share a similar life history to L. crocea. Combined with China's current restocking and stock enhancement initiatives, we propose recommendations for the future restocking of L. crocea in China.

Projecting Future Climate Change-Mediated Impacts in Three Paralytic Shellfish Toxins-Producing Dinoflagellate Species.

Simple SummaryHarmful algal blooms present a particular risk for marine ecosystems and human health alike. In this sense, it is important to accurately predict how toxin-producing microalgae could be affected by future climate change. The present study applied species distribution models (SDMs) to project the potential changes in the habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2040/50 and 2090/2100, across four different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and using four abiotic predictors (i.e., sea surface temperature, salinity, current velocity, and bathymetry). In general, considerable contractions were observed for all three species in the lower latitudes of their distribution, together with projected expansions into higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. This study aims to entice further research on the future biogeographical impacts of climate change in toxin-producing microalgae species while, at the same time, helping to advise the correct environmental management of coastal habitats and ecosystems. Toxin-producing microalgae present a significant environmental risk for ecosystems and human societies when they reach concentrations that affect other aquatic organisms or human health. Harmful algal blooms (HAB) have been linked to mass wildlife die-offs and human food poisoning episodes, and climate change has the potential to alter the frequency, magnitude, and geographical extent of such events. Thus, a framework of species distribution models (SDMs), employing MaxEnt modeling, was used to project changes in habitat suitability and distribution of three key paralytic shellfish toxin (PST)-producing dinoflagellate species (i.e., Alexandrium catenella, A. minutum, and Gymnodinium catenatum), up to 2050 and 2100, across four representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5; CMIP5). Despite slightly different responses at the regional level, the global habitat suitability has decreased for all the species, leading to an overall contraction in their tropical and sub-tropical ranges, while considerable expansions are projected in higher latitudes, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting poleward distributional shifts. Such trends were exacerbated with increasing RCP severity. Yet, further research is required, with a greater assemblage of environmental predictors and improved occurrence datasets, to gain a more holistic understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on PST-producing species.

Do genetically informed distribution models improve range predictions in past climates? A case study with balsam poplar

Species distribution models (SDMs) are one of the most widely used approaches to predict changes in habitat suitability in response to climate change. However, as typically implemented, SDMs treat species as genetically uniform throughout their ranges and thereby ignore potentially important genetic differences between populations. While numerous studies have used SDMs to model genetically based subgroupings within species, the ability of such models to be transferred to new times has rarely been evaluated. Here, we used standard and genetically informed distribution models (gSDMs) to predict the future and past range of balsam poplar (Populus balsamifera L.). We then assessed model transferability of standard SDMs and gSDMs using balsam poplar fossil pollen and macrofossil occurrences. In general, standard and gSDMs performed similarly through time, with both predicting a northward expanding range from refugia as glaciers receded over the past 22 ky BP and declining suitable area in future climates. Both standard and gSDMs showed moderate abilities to distinguish balsam poplar fossils from pseudo-absences but tended to predict lower suitability at fossil sites during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Although gSDMs applied to balsam poplar did not prove more transferable than standard SDMs, they provided numerous unique insights, such as the change in suitable area of genetic clusters through time and potential refugial locations. We argue more research is needed to determine which species may benefit most from the gSDM approach and to test gSDMs with temporally or spatially independent occurrences, as is often recommended for standard SDMs.

Based on multiple environmental factors to explore the habitat distribution of licorice (Glycyrrhiza uralensis) in different time and space

As a traditional medicinal plant, licorice (Glycyrrhiza uralensis) with high medicinal and economic value and its demand is increasing around the world. In recent decades, the endless human excavation and climate change have reduced the natural habitat of licorice. Identifying the suitable habitat of licorice and climatic factors is crucial to formulating effective protection and management strategies. This study simulated the suitability geographic distribution of licorice in the current period by combining climate and topographic variables and predicted the possible changes in suitable habitats for licorice under different climate warming scenarios (RCP8.5, 6.0, 4.5, 2.6) in the future (2041–2080) based on Maxent and ArcGIS models. The study results showed that annual average temperature, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation and elevation were the primary eco-factors influencing the spatial distribution of licorice. Currently, the high, medium and low suitable areas of licorice are 108.87 × 104 km2, 70.29 × 104 km2 and 122.80 × 104 km2, respectively. These habitat regions were mainly distributed in the northwest, northeast and north of China. The research found that the habitat suitability and habitat range of licorice will increase in the future, while the potentially highly suitable habitat will decrease and the habitat fragmentation will increase with the intensification of global warming. The analysis results can provide a theoretical reference for the formulation of protection strategies and the selection of suitable planting areas for licorice.

Climate-driven range shifts of a rare specialist bee, Macropis nuda (Melittidae), and its host plant, Lysimachia ciliata (Primulaceae)

Earth's climate is on track to surpass the proposed mean global temperature change limit of 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels, threatening to disrupt ecosystems globally. Yet, studies on temperate bee response to climate change are limited, with most studies of non- Apis bees focusing on the eusocial genus Bombus . Here, we assess the response of a rare habitat and host plant specialist bee, Macropis nuda , to projected climate change scenarios. We use species distribution models of M. nuda and its host plant, Lysimachia ciliata , trained on publicly available occurrence records, to evaluate bee distribution and habitat suitability changes under four climate change scenarios. We find that the bee and host plant distributions respond synchronously to increased greenhouse gas emissions, which result in range-wide habitat suitability loss and a northward range shift. These results provide an important example of a temperate solitary bee's response to climate change and help inform conservation efforts to preserve pollinator biodiversity and pollinator-host plant relationships.

Effects of decadal climate variability on spatiotemporal distribution of Indo-Pacific yellowfin tuna population

Spatial variations in tuna population and abundance are strongly linked to large-scale climate fluctuations, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). However, the mechanisms underlying the association of climate indices with yellowfin tuna (YFT) abundance and habitat preference remain unclear. We analysed long-term longline fishery data for YFT and oceanic climate variability index data for 1971–2018. The standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of Indo-Pacific Ocean YFT was higher during negative AMO and positive PDO phases. In tropical Pacific Ocean, the trend of YFT habitat preference exhibited seesaw patterns because of the distinct environmental factors influenced by the PDO phase. The PDO changed the environmental parameters throughout the tropical Indian Ocean such that the habitat preference of YFT remained consistent throughout. However, the variations in habitat suitability did not correspond to the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT throughout the Pacific Ocean during AMO events. Moreover, the changes in habitat suitability had a positive periodicity of 8–16 years with AMO in the Indian Ocean, but revealed opposite trends with the distribution or standardized CPUE of YFT. Our results provide sufficient information to distinguish the variations between PDO phase changing and YFT standardized CPUE/ habitat preference. Furthermore, the AMO phase shift period 60–100 years longer than that of the PDO (20–30 years), and models employing time series of fishery and environmental data must be extended the time period of our study to make the AMO match the fishery data more complete.

Potential European Geographical Distribution of Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) (Coleoptera: Scolytinae) under Current and Future Climate Conditions

Gnathotrichus materiarius (Fitch, 1858) is an alien ambrosia beetle from North America, that has been spreading across Europe since the 1930s. The species infests coniferous trees, excavating galleries in sapwood. However, to date very few studies have predicted changes in ambrosia beetle habitat suitability under changing climate conditions. To fill that gap in the current knowledge, we used the MaxEnt algorithm to estimate areas potentially suitable for this species in Europe, both under current climate conditions and those forecasted for the years 2050 and 2070. Our analyses showed areas where the species has not been reported, though the climatic conditions are suitable. Models for the forecasted conditions predicted an increase in suitable habitats. Due to the wide range of host trees, the species is likely to spread through the Balkans, the Black Sea and Caucasus region, Baltic countries, the Scandinavian Peninsula, and Ukraine. As a technical pest of coniferous sapwood, it can cause financial losses due to deterioration in quality of timber harvested in such regions. Our results will be helpful for the development of a climate-change-integrated management strategy to mitigate potential adverse effects.