Changes In Fire Regimes Research Articles

The sensitivity of fire activity to interannual climate variability in Victoria, Australia

Climate change is expected to have an impact on fire activity in many regions around the globe.The extent of this can only be determined by first establishing the relationship between climate and fire activity. This study relates observed changes in fire activity in Victoria to observed changes in antecedent and concurrent climate parameters – maximum temperature, rainfall and vapour pressure, using data for 1972–2014. A first-difference approach was adopted to estimate the amount by which the observed changes in the climate parameters would have altered the fire activity in the absence of other confounding effects. This study provides a method for examining the sensitivity of fire activity to changes in climate parameters without the need to consider the complex response of fuel dynamics to future climates and changes in fire regime or fire management. We used stepwise multiple-regression to determine the months whose climate parameters explained much of the variance in the total number of fires (TNF) and area burned in a fire season. The best performing fire–climate models explained almost two-thirds of the variation in year-to-year variability of fire activity. The significant explanatory ability of the fire–climate models established in this study reveals the combination of climate parameters that closely relates to the observed year-to-year changes in fire activity, and this may provide an additional valuable resource for fire management planning. Further, we explored the role changes in climate have had on the trend in fire activity. Natural logarithm of area burned and mean fire size have not significantly increased over the study period, but the TNF has significantly increased. We find that the observed increase in maximum temperatures and decrease in rainfall account for 26% of the observed increase in TNF for the 1972–2014 period. Therefore, most of the upward trend found in fire numbers must be due to factors other than climate (i.e. changes in fire occurrence, reporting/recording, land and fire-management changes). Additionally, this study concludes that total area burned should have also increased significantly due to the observed changes in climate and that improved fire-management practicesmay be offsetting this expected increase in the area burned. Finally, using the relationship established in this study between fire numbers and climate parameters, we estimate that a 2°C increase in mean monthly maximum temperatures could be expected to lead to a 38% increase in fire numbers.

Non-additive effects of alternative stable states on landscape flammability in NW Patagonia: fire history and simulation modelling evidence

Understanding the relationship between flammability and time since fire (TSF) is crucial for predicting ecosystem responses to changes in fire regimes. Landscapes composed of alternative stable states displaying positive fire–vegetation feedbacks are especially sensitive to these changes. We derived TSF–flammability functions (Logistic, Olson, Moisture, Weibull) from survival analysis applied to north-west Patagonian landscapes and simulated landscapes composed of different proportions of alternative stable states (shrublands and forest) and fire frequencies. We expected that landscapes dominated by shrublands would show an asymptotic growth (Logistic or Olson) and those dominated by forest would show a hump-shaped growth (Moisture). Additionally, we expected that the landscape-level flammability functions would resemble the pattern of the most abundant community. We found that shrublands tended to dominate the TSF–flammability relationship (Logistic) even when they were less abundant in the landscape (non-additive effects). The flammability function followed a hump-shaped growth (Moisture) only when the forest cover was >80%. Our results highlight that alternative stable states occur not only because of positive fire–vegetation feedbacks, but also thanks to the non-additivity of the flammability of the different states in the landscape. Non-additive effects could have an important role in accelerating landscape transformations towards more flammable states.

Serotiny in the South African shrub Protea repens is associated with gradients of precipitation, temperature, and fire intensity

Globally, variability in canopy seed retention within closed cones (serotiny) among fire-adapted plant species is often associated with gradients in fire regime. Few studies have investigated the association of intraspecific variation in serotiny with geographical variation in fire and other environmental factors, especially climatic ones, and none has done so in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) of South Africa. Yet the relationship between environmental gradients and intraspecific variation in reproductive traits may help us understand if those gradients partly shaped the evolution of the rich diversity or proteas in the CFR, and predict the resilience of fire-adapted Protea species to climate and fire regime changes in the CFR. We examined the association of the variability in serotiny in Protea repens (L.) L, the Common Sugarbush, with gradients in fire regime and climatic factors, and with plant age, cone age, and age of oldest closed cone across its 700 km-long longitudinal range in the CFR. Cone age was a significant covariate of the probability that a given cone was closed (our measure of serotiny), but plant age and age of oldest closed cone were not. Variability in the degree of serotiny was significant among populations. Serotiny was highest where fire intensity was historically high, where both mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature were low, and where rainfall was least seasonal, but fire frequency was not a predictor of serotiny.

Fire Recurrence and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Dynamics in Brazilian Savanna

Fire is one of the main modeling agents of savanna ecosystems, affecting their distribution, physiognomy and species diversity. Changes in the natural fire regime on savannas cause disturbances in the structural characteristics of vegetation. Theses disturbances can be effectively monitored by time series of remote sensing data in different terrestrial ecosystems such as savannas. This study used trend analysis in NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)–MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) time series to evaluate the influence of different fire recurrences on vegetation phenology of the Brazilian savanna in the period from 2001 to 2016. The trend analysis indicated several factors responsible for changes in vegetation: (a) The absence of fire in savanna phytophysiognomies causes a constant increase in MODIS–NDVI, ranging from 0.001 to 0.002 per year, the moderate presence of fire in these areas does not cause significant changes, while the high recurrence results in decreases of MODIS–NDVI, ranging from −0.002 to −0.008 per year; (b) Forest areas showed a high decrease in NDVI, reaching up to −0.009 MODIS–NDVI per year, but not related to fire recurrence, indicating the high degradation of these phytophysiognomies; (c) Changes in vegetation are highly connected to the protection status of the area, such as areas of integral protection or sustainable use, and consequently their conservation status. Areas with greater vegetation conservation had more than 70% of positive changes in pixels with significant tendencies. Absence or presence of fire are the main agents of vegetation change in areas with lower anthropic influence. These results reinforce the need for a suitable fire management policy for the different types of Cerrado phytophysiognomies, in addition to highlighting the efficiency of remote sensing time series for evaluation of vegetation phenology.

Increased fire severity alters initial vegetation regeneration across Calluna-dominated ecosystems

Calluna vulgaris-dominated habitats are valued for ecosystem services such as carbon storage and for their conservation importance. Climate and environmental change are altering their fire regimes. In particular, more frequent summer droughts will result in higher severity wildfires. This could alter the plant community composition of Calluna habitats and thereby influence ecosystem function. To study the effect of fire severity on community composition we used rain-out shelters to simulate drought prior to experimental burns at two Calluna-dominated sites, a raised bog and a heathland. We analysed species abundance in plots surveyed ca. 16 months after fire in relation to burn severity (indicated by fire-induced soil heating). We found that fire severity was an important control on community composition at both sites. Higher fire severity increased the abundance of ericoids, graminoids and acrocarpous mosses, and decreased the abundance of pleurocarpous mosses compared to lower severity fires. At the raised bog, the keystone species Sphagnum capillifolium and Eriophorum vaginatum showed no difference in regeneration with fire severity. Species and plant functional type beta-diversity increased following fire, and was similar in higher compared to lower severity burns. Our results further our understanding of the response of Calluna-dominated habitats to projected changes in fire regimes, and can assist land managers using prescribed fires in selecting burning conditions to achieve management objectives.

A squeeze in the suitable fire interval: Simulating the persistence of fire-killed plants in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem under drier conditions

Mediterranean-type ecosystems (MTEs) harbor an exceptionally high biodiversity of vascular plants. At the same time, climatic conditions in many MTE regions are projected to become both drier and hotter, and fire intervals shorter. The Interval Squeeze conceptual model integrates the potential effects of a changing climate and fire regimes on perennial plant population persistence and postulates that warmer, drier conditions will negatively affect multiple plant demographic processes. Dependent on species-specific traits, the required fire intervals that allow for population persistence might become longer, while projected future fire intervals are shorter, leading to a potential mismatch. However, conceptual models are per se not able to quantify outcomes of multiple stochastic processes or to simulate temporal dynamics. Here, we develop a simple, process-based model for a fire-sensitive woody plant species to evaluate the response of demographic processes to future climatic conditions and to quantify the potential impact also of future changes in fire interval. This allowed us to assess key assumptions of the interval squeeze model, particularly in relation to demographic drivers.We simulated populations of Banksia hookeriana, a typical fire-killed shrub found in MTEs of South-West Australia which stores its seeds in a canopy (serotinous) seedbank and shows strong cohort recruitment in the first year after fire. We estimated suitable fixed fire intervals for population persistence under historic climatic conditions and evaluated impacts of a higher dry year frequency (as projected under future climate by two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Our findings support the Interval Squeeze Model: the fire interval allowing plant population persistence is squeezed from currently 10–28 years to 13–28 years for RCP4.5. For RCP8.5 population persistence is not possible under any of the tested fire intervals because of low seed production and low survival probability of both seedlings and adult plants. The results show that projected drier conditions alone will cause a higher extinction risk for fire-sensitive perennial plant populations in MTEs, which is further pronounced in combination with shorter fire intervals. This will likely lead to a strong shift in community composition and a loss of biodiversity. Fire management practices may need to be modified to attempt to counteract prospective biodiversity loss and ecosystem structure change.

Can trophic rewilding reduce the impact of fire in a more flammable world?

Large vertebrates affect fire regimes in several ways: by consuming plant matter that would otherwise accumulate as fuel; by controlling and varying the density of vegetation; and by engineering the soil and litter layer. These processes can regulate the frequency, intensity and extent of fire. The evidence for these effects is strongest in environments with intermediate rainfall, warm temperatures and graminoid-dominated ground vegetation. Probably, extinction of Quaternary megafauna triggered increased biomass burning in many such environments. Recent and continuing declines of large vertebrates are likely to be significant contributors to changes in fire regimes and vegetation that are currently being experienced in many parts of the world. To date, rewilding projects that aim to restore large herbivores have paid little attention to the value of large animals in moderating fire regimes. Rewilding potentially offers a powerful tool for managing the risks of wildfire and its impacts on natural and human values.This article is part of the theme issue ‘Trophic rewilding: consequences for ecosystems under global change’.

Fire severity effects on soil carbon and nutrients and microbial processes in a Siberian larch forest.

Fire frequency and severity are increasing in tundra and boreal regions as climate warms, which can directly affect climate feedbacks by increasing carbon (C) emissions from combustion of the large soil C pool and indirectly via changes in vegetation, permafrost thaw, hydrology, and nutrient availability. To better understand the direct and indirect effects of changing fire regimes in northern ecosystems, we examined how differences in soil burn severity (i.e., extent of soil organic matter combustion) affect soil C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) availability and microbial processes over time. We created experimental burns of three fire severities (low, moderate, and high) in a larch forest in the northeastern Siberian Arctic and analyzed soils at 1, 8days, and 1year postfire. Labile dissolved C and N increased with increasing soil burn severity immediately (1day) postfire by up to an order of magnitude, but declined significantly 1week later; both variables were comparable or lower than unburned soils by 1year postfire. Soil burn severity had no effect on P in the organic layer, but P increased with increasing severity in mineral soil horizons. Most extracellular enzyme activities decreased by up to 70% with increasing soil burn severity. Increasing soil burn severity reduced soil respiration 1year postfire by 50%. However, increasing soil burn severity increased net N mineralization rates 1year postfire, which were 10-fold higher in the highest burn severity. While fires of high severity consumed approximately five times more soil C than those of low severity, soil C pools will also be driven by indirect effects of fire on soil processes. Our data suggest that despite an initial increase in labile C and nutrients with soil burn severity, soil respiration and extracellular activities related to the turnover of organic matter were greatly reduced, which may mitigate future C losses following fire.

Holocene vegetation dynamics and hydrological variability in forested peatlands of the Clay Belt, eastern Canada, reconstructed using a palaeoecological approach

Forested peatlands are widespread in boreal regions of Canada, and these ecosystems, which are major terrestrial carbon sinks, are undergoing significant transformations linked to climate change, fires and human activities. This study targets millennial‐scale vegetation dynamics and related hydrological variability in forested peatlands of the Clay Belt south of James Bay, eastern Canada, using palaeoecological data. Changes in peatland vegetation communities were reconstructed using plant macrofossil analyses, and variations in water‐table depths were inferred using testate amoeba analyses. High‐resolution analyses of macroscopic charcoal >0.5 mm were used to reconstruct local fire history. Our data showed two successional pathways towards the development of present‐day forested peatlands influenced by autogenic processes such as vertical peat growth and related drying, and allogenic factors such as the occurrence of local fires. The oldest documented peatland initiated in a wet rich fen around 8000 cal. a BP shortly after land emergence and transformed into a drier forested bog rapidly after peat inception that persisted over millennia. In the second site, peat started to accumulate from ~5200 cal. a BP over a mesic coniferous forest that shifted into a wet forested peatland following a fire that partially consumed the organic layer ~4600 cal. a BP. The charcoal records show that fires rarely occurred in these peatlands, but they have favoured the process of forest paludification and influenced successional trajectories over millennia. The macrofossil data suggest that Picea mariana (black spruce) persisted on the peatlands throughout their development, although there were periods of more open canopy due to local fires in some cases. This study brings new understanding on the natural variability of boreal forested peatlands which may help predict their response to future changes in climate, fire regimes and anthropogenic disturbances.

Topographic variation in the climatic change response of a larch forest in Northeastern China

Due to the spatial heterogeneity of the disturbance regimes and community assemblages along topoclimatic gradients, the response of forest ecosystem to climate change varies at the landscape scale. Our objective was to quantify the possible changes in forest ecosystems and the relative effects of climate warming and fire regime changes in different topographic positions. We used a spatially explicit model (LANDIS PRO) combined with a gap model (LINKAGES) to predict the possible response of boreal larch forests to climate and fire regime changes, and examined how this response would vary in different topographic positions. The result showed that the proportion of landscape occupied by broadleaf species increased under warming climate and frequent fires scenarios. Shifts in species composition were strongly influenced by both climate warming and more frequent fires, while changes in age structure were mainly controlled by shifts in fire regime. These responses varied in the different topographic positions, with forests in valley bottoms being most resilient to climate-fire changes and forests in uplands being more likely to shift their composition from larch-dominant to mixed forests. Such variation in the topographic response may be induced by the heterogeneities of the environmental conditions and fire regime. Fire disturbance could alter the equilibrium of ecosystems and accelerate the response of forests to climate warming. These effects are largely modulated by topographic variations. Our findings suggest that it is imperative to consider topographic complexities when developing appropriate fire management policies for mitigating the effects of climate change.

Short-term changes in the structure of ant assemblages in a Guinean savanna under differing fire regimes at Lamto Scientific Reserve, Côte d'Ivoire

Abstract:To maintain savanna vegetation, mid-seasonal fire has been applied since 1961 in the Lamto Savanna (Côte d'Ivoire). However, this prescribed fire has not impeded tree encroachment during recent years, nor have its effects on insect assemblages been documented. Also the impact of tree intrusion on insect assemblages is poorly studied in savanna. To prevent tree density increasing, a change in fire regime might be a solution. In this study, we examined the effect of different fire regimes (early, mid-seasonal and late fires) on leaf-litter ant assemblages in order to suggest appropriate measures for preventing tree invasion without having an effect on insect communities. Sampling was implemented by combining pitfall trapping and leaf-litter sampling before and after three different fire regimes, early, mid-seasonal and late fires. While the ant species richness declined after the passage of early and mid-seasonal fires, significantly more species were found in the burnt savanna after the late fire. However, the losses or gains of species due to different fire regimes did not cause severe changes in the ant species composition. Of the functional groups identified, only the generalists and specialist predators were respectively strongly affected by the early and mid-seasonal fires, certainly due to micro-habitat modification. Based on the trends observed in the present study, we suggest sampling other invertebrate fauna in similar savanna plots to find out if other insect groups have similar reactions to the applied fire regimes.

Alternative stable equilibria and critical thresholds created by fire regimes and plant responses in a fire‐prone community

Wildfire is a dominant disturbance in many ecosystems, and fire frequency and intensity are being altered as climates change. Through effects on mortality and regeneration, fire affects plant community composition, species richness, and carbon cycling. In some regions, changes to fire regimes could result in critical, non‐reversible transitions from forest to non‐forested states. For example, the Klamath ecoregion (northwest United States) supports extensive conifer forests that are initially replaced by hardwood chaparral following high‐severity fire, but eventually return to conifer forest during the fire‐free periods. Climate change alters both the fire regime and post‐fire recovery dynamics, potentially causing shrubland to persist as a stable (i.e. self‐renewing) vegetation stage, rather than an ephemeral stage. Here, we present a theoretical investigation of how changes in plant traits and fire regimes can alter the stability of communities in forest‐shrub systems such as the Klamath. Our model captures the key characteristics of the system, including life‐stage‐specific responses to disturbance and asymmetrical competitive interactions. We assess vegetation stability via invasion analysis, and conclude that portions of the landscape that are currently forested also can be stable as shrubland. We identify parameter thresholds where community equilibria change from stable to unstable, and show how these thresholds may shift in response to changes in life‐history or environmental parameters. For instance, conifer maturation rates are expected to decrease as aridity increases under climate change, and our model shows that this reduction decreases the fire frequencies at which forests become unstable. Increases in fire activity sufficient to destabilize forest communities are likely to occur in more arid future climates. If widespread, this would result in reduced carbon stocks and a positive feedback to climate change. Changes in stability may be altered by management practices.

Assessing the spatial fidelity of sedimentary charcoal size fractions as fire history proxies with a high-resolution sediment record and historical data

Fire reconstructions provide context for modern rates of burning and inform predictions of fire regimes' responses to climate and/or ecological changes. Charcoal particles preserved in lake sediments are a widely employed fire proxy. Although many studies have calibrated the charcoal proxy, the spatial scales of charcoal dispersal and source area remain disputed. Understanding the spatial fidelity of charcoal accumulation is increasingly important in light of recent efforts to aggregate multiple charcoal records to infer changes in regional, continental- and global-scale fire regimes. Using a high-resolution sediment record from Swamp Lake, California, we compare charcoal accumulation rate (CHAR) variations of three size fractions of sedimentary charcoal (63–150, >150, and >250 μm) to historical area burned data. We find that macroscopic (>250 and >150 μm) and mesoscopic (63–150 μm) charcoal source areas are within 25, 35, and 150 km of Swamp Lake, respectively. We also use a dispersal model to confirm these findings. Our estimates of charcoal source area fall within the large range of estimates for forest fires in the literature. Further, our methodology shows potential for constraining source areas of charcoal in sedimentary records, which is requisite for the reliable inference of the spatial extent of fire in paleorecords.

Relative size to resprouters determines post-fire recruitment of non-serotinous pines

The persistence of non-serotinous pines in Mediterranean forests can be threatened by climate-mediated changes in fire regimes that may favor the dominance of resprouters or other fire-adapted species. Recovery of non-serotinous pines after large wildfires is often determined by their ability to grow under the canopy of promptly established resprouters. Mechanisms of facilitation or competition between resprouters and pines will thus have a profound effect on forest dynamics. We examined here the effect of neighboring oak resprouts on Pinus nigra Arn. ssp. salzmannii saplings 18 years after a wildfire. We determined the net outcome of interactions between oaks and pines and how they vary with the life stage and size of the interacting plants or the environmental conditions. We did not find any net facilitative effects of oaks on pine sapling growth. The sensitivity of pines to neighbors varied markedly with pine size, and to a lesser extent, with water availability during the growing season. Our findings suggest a self-reinforcing hierarchical process by which early-dispersed seedlings growing in low-competitive microsites can grow faster, mitigating neighboring competition in the later stage of canopy closure. These results entail a potentially critical role of management practices to promote post-fire recovery of non-serotinous pines under expected changing conditions of disturbance regimes.

Fire and plant invasion, but not rodents, alter ant community abundance and diversity in a semi‐arid desert

AbstractHuman activities are increasing the size, frequency, and severity of disturbance across earth's ecosystems including deserts. Ants are important drivers of ecosystem function and are good bioindicators of ecosystem sensitivity to disturbance and change. Rodents also play an important role in ecosystem response to disturbance and often compete with ants for resources. The purpose of our study was to test the main and interactive effects of fire, rodent activity, and time on ant forager abundance, species richness, and diversity, as well as changes in ant mound density and disk area in the Great Basin Desert. We experimentally applied burn and rodent exclusion treatments and used pitfall traps to collect ants each month from April through October from 2014 to 2016. Over the three‐year period, burned areas had lower richness and diversity than unburned areas. Rodent exclusion had minimal effects on the ant community, and there was not a significant rodent exclusion interaction with fire. Treatment effects varied by month and year. The western harvester ant, Pogonomyrmex occidentalis, was the most abundant ant species, comprising about 70% of the total ants captured. Shifts in ant diversity following fire were driven by positive responses of harvester ants to burned habitat conditions. In contrast, all other ant species when analyzed together had lower forager abundance in burned plots, which drove lower ant diversity in burned plots. Ant forager abundance, richness, and diversity increased each year of the study in all plots; however, richness and diversity remained lower in burned areas than in unburned areas each year. Structural equation modeling shows that the effects of fire on ant community diversity are partially mediated through the plant community. While rodents affected the plant community, those effects do not seem to transfer over to the ant community. Pogonomyrmex occidentalis mound density was higher in burned areas, but disk area was smaller. Our results suggest that fire has adverse effects on ant community diversity. This could have long‐lasting effects on ecosystem function in the face of a changing fire regime in deserts of North America caused by invasive annual plants.

The role of wildfire on soil quality in abandoned terraces of three Mediterranean micro-catchments

Wildfire in abandoned terraces represents a challenge of land management and soil protection in the Mediterranean region due to afforestation of former agricultural land is a major driving force in changing fire regimes and hence land degradation. The effects on physicochemical and biological parameters caused by wildfires on abandoned terraces and non-terraced soils were investigated in three Mediterranean micro-catchments. The study areas were set up as follows: (i) unburned and non-terraced, (ii) unburned and terraced, (iii) once burned and non-terraced, (iv) once burned and terraced, (v) twice burned and non-terraced and (vi) twice burned and terraced. In each of these areas, six composite soil samples 0–15 cm depth were collected from representative plots (25 m2). The results revealed that the best soil quality related with microbiological activity occurred in the unburned and non-terraced plots. However, burned terraced sites, whether burned once or twice, showed significantly higher values of C/N ratio than unburned and non-terraced plots. The nutrient content (magnesium, sodium and potassium) was not affected by wildfire whereas terracing significantly altered the base cation content. Soil enzyme activity correlated positively with the basal soil respiration (REB) rates and carbon content (correlation coefficients ranged from 0.80 to 0.85), but correlated negatively with the C/N ratio (correlation coefficients ranged from −0.37 to −0.47). Even a long time after abandonment (>50 years), soils in terraced plots did not reach the soil quality status of non-terraced and unburned plots. These data suggest significant soil degradation generated by wildfires frequency in abandoned terraces.

Quercus suber forest and Pinus plantations show different post-fire resilience in Mediterranean north-western Africa

In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forests and pine plantations coexist. Under similar fire regimes, cork oak forest is more resilient in terms of habitat structure (canopy, understory, and complexity of vegetation strata) than pine plantation. By contrast, both woodland types show similar resilience in plant species composition. Resilience in habitat structure varies between the two woodland types because of the resprouting and seeding strategies of cork oak and pine species, respectively. These differences can be relevant for the conservation of biodiversity of forested ecosystems in a future scenario of increased fire frequency and scale in the Mediterranean basin. Wildfires have major impacts on ecosystems globally. In fire-prone regions, plant species have developed adaptive traits (resprouting and seeding) to survive and persist due to long evolutionary coexistence with fire. In the African rim of the Western Mediterranean Basin, cork oak forest and pine plantation are the most frequently burnt woodlands. Both species have different strategies to respond fire: cork oak is a resprouter while pines are mostly seeders. We have examined the hypothesis that pine plantations are less resilient in habitat structure (canopy, understory, diversity of vegetation strata) and plant composition than cork oak woodlands. The habitat structure and plant species composition were measured in 30 burnt and 30 unburnt 700-m transects at 12 burnt sites from north-western Africa, where the two forest types can coexist. Habitat structure and plant species composition were compared between burnt and unburnt transects from cork oak and pine plantation woodlands with generalized linear mixed models and general linear models. The results showed significant interaction effect of fire and forest type, since cork oak forest was more resilient to fire than was pine plantation in habitat structure. By contrast, both forest types were resilient to fire in the composition of the plant communities, i.e., plant composition prior to fire did not change afterwards. The higher structural resilience of cork oak forest compared to pine plantation is related to the resprouting and seeding strategies, respectively, of the dominant tree species. Differences in the responses to fire need to be considered in conservation planning for the maintenance of the Mediterranean biodiversity in a future scenario of changes in fire regime.

Biodiversity responds to increasing climatic extremes in a biome-specific manner

An unprecedented rate of global environmental change is predicted for the next century. The response to this change by ecosystems around the world is highly uncertain. To address this uncertainty, it is critical to understand the potential drivers and mechanisms of change in order to develop more reliable predictions. Australia's Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTERN) has brought together some of the longest running (10–60years) continuous environmental monitoring programs in the southern hemisphere. Here, we compare climatic variables recorded at five LTERN plot network sites during their period of operation and place them into the context of long-term climatic trends. Then, using our unique Australian long-term datasets (total 117 survey years across four biomes), we synthesize results from a series of case studies to test two hypotheses: 1) extreme weather events for each plot network have increased over the last decade, and; 2) trends in biodiversity will be associated with recent climate change, either directly or indirectly through climate-mediated disturbance (wildfire) responses. We examined the biodiversity responses to environmental change for evidence of non-linear behavior. In line with hypothesis 1), an increase in extreme climate events occurred within the last decade for each plot network. For hypothesis 2), climate, wildfire, or both were correlated with biodiversity responses at each plot network, but there was no evidence of non-linear change. However, the influence of climate or fire was context-specific. Biodiversity responded to recent climate change either directly or indirectly as a consequence of changes in fire regimes or climate-mediated fire responses. A national long-term monitoring framework allowed us to find contrasting species abundance or community responses to climate and disturbance across four of the major biomes of Australia, highlighting the need to establish and resource long-term monitoring programs across representative ecosystem types, which are likely to show context-specific responses.

It takes a few to tango: changing climate and fire regimes can cause regeneration failure of two subalpine conifers.

Environmental change is accelerating in the 21st century, but how multiple drivers may interact to alter forest resilience remains uncertain. In forests affected by large high-severity disturbances, tree regeneration is a resilience linchpin that shapes successional trajectories for decades. We modeled stands of two widespread western U.S. conifers, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia), in Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, USA) to ask (1) What combinations of distance to seed source, fire return interval, and warming-drying conditions cause postfire tree-regeneration failure? (2) If postfire tree regeneration was successful, how does early tree density differ under future climate relative to historical climate? We conducted a stand-level (1ha) factorial simulation experiment using the individual-based forest process model iLand to identify combinations of fire return interval (11-100yr), distance to seed source (50-1,000m), and climate (historical, mid-21st century, late-21st century) where trees failed to regenerate by 30-yr postfire. If regeneration was successful, we compared stand densities between climate periods. Simulated postfire regeneration were surprisingly resilient to changing climate and fire drivers. Douglas-fir regeneration failed more frequently (55%) than lodgepole pine (28% and 16% for non-serotinous and serotinous stands, respectively). Distance to seed source was an important driver of regeneration failure for Douglas-fir and non-serotinous lodgepole pine; regeneration never failed when stands were 50m from a seed source and nearly always failed when stands were 1km away. Regeneration of serotinous lodgepole pine only failed when fire return intervals were ≤20yr and stands were far (1km) from a seed source. Warming climate increased regeneration success for Douglas-fir but did not affect lodgepole pine. If regeneration was successful, postfire density varied with climate. Douglas-fir and serotinous lodgepole pine regeneration density both increased under 21st-century climate but in response to different climate variables (growing season length vs. cold limitation). Results suggest that, given a warmer future with larger and more frequent fires, a greater number of stands that fail to regenerate after fires combined with increasing density in stands where regeneration is successful could produce a more coarse-grained forest landscape.

Declining populations in one of the last refuges for threatened mammal species in northern Australia

AbstractAustralia has contributed a disproportionate number of the world's mammal extinctions over the past 200 years, with the greatest loss of species occurring through the continent's southern and central arid regions. Many taxonomically and ecologically similar species are now undergoing widespread decline across the northern Australian mainland, possibly driven by predation by feral cats and changed fire regimes. Here, we report marked recent declines of native mammal species in one of Australia's few remaining areas that support an intact mammal assemblage, Melville Island, the largest island off the northern Australian coast. We have previously reported a marked decline on Melville Island of the threatened brush‐tailed rabbit‐rat (Conilurus penicillatus) over the period 2000–2015, linked to predation by feral cats. We now report a 62% reduction in small mammal trap‐success and a 36% reduction in site‐level species richness over this period. There was a decrease in trap‐success of 90% for the northern brown bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus), 64% for the brush‐tailed rabbit‐rat and 63% for the black‐footed tree‐rat (Mesembriomys gouldii), but no decline for the common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula). These results suggest that populations of native mammals on Melville Island are exhibiting similar patterns of decline to those recorded in Kakadu National Park two decades earlier, and across the northern Australian mainland more generally. Without the implementation of effective management actions, these species are likely to be lost from one of their last remaining strongholds, threatening to increase Australia's already disproportionate contribution to global mammal extinctions.