Changes In Economic Policy Research Articles

Evaluating FDI-Driven Wage Outcomes for Women: A Cross-Cultural Analysis of France and Italy Gender Equality

France and Italy, as advanced economies within the European Union, have embraced Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) to stimulate growth and integration into the global market. This study examines the relationship between FDIs and wage implications for female employees in these contexts, considering distinct economic policies, industry specializations, and European Union integration. By analyzing gender-specific wage data over multiple years, the research highlights potential disparities and dynamic patterns influenced by economic fluctuations and policy changes. Employing econometric techniques, the study identifies causal relationships and provides insights for policymakers. The findings aim to deepen the understanding of FDIs-driven wage dynamics for female workers in France and Italy, contributing to broader global discussions on economic development and gender equity. The objective is to conduct a comparative analysis from the perspective of FDIs management.

The Coming Systemic Cycle of Accumulation and China

The article treats the current world economic crisis within the systemic cycles of accumulation framework developed by G. Arrighi. The ‘systemic chaos’ manifests the decline of ‘the long twentieth century’ of American hegemony, with countries struggling for dominance in a coming capital expansion cycle. G. Arrighi assumed that China could be a new global leader. However, his arguments were rather general, while modern economics requires more rigourous evidence. The article suggests explicit technological and institutional criteria to capture signs of a rising economic hegemony already in transitory epochs, which are changes in energy consumption and external economic policies. The approach is theoretically grounded and verified with the historic data on the British and the US capital accumulation cycles, and then is taken towards the modern Chinese economy. The findings suggest that China has been improving opportunities to gain world leadership. However, questions remain open about the possibility of a polycentric world, as well as about key institutional parameters and early indicators of ‘long’ cycles. These issues require further research.

SSEC Forecast Based on ARIMA and ETS Models

Stock price forecasting is the main concern of the financial industry, which is affected by many macroeconomic variables. The Shanghai Securities Composite Index (SSEC), as a representative index of the Chinese stock market, provides an overall overview of the performance of the Chinese capital market. China's economic policy changes, especially the adjustment of monetary policy, have had a significant impact on the stock market. In this paper, ARIMA and ETS models are used to forecast SSEC under the current macroeconomic environment. The results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) value of ETS model is lower than that of ARIMA model, indicating that ETS model is more accurate in SSEC prediction. In addition, the ETS model is particularly suitable for stock market forecasting due to its ability to account for exponential trends. In order to provide a new perspective for predicting the Shanghai Stock Composite Index and provide guidance for stock market forecasting under complex economic environment, the ARIMA and ETS models are analyzed in this study.

The Impact of Economic Policy Changes on International Trade and Relations

Economic policies continue to remain central in determining relations among nation states in the global economy that is progressively characterised by integrated globalisation. The newer changes in the course of economics; or due to the geopolitical conflicts, advancement in the field of technology, the impact of COVID-19, commerce worldwide has experience newer changes. A review of these policies is presented in this paper with a view of assessing their direct and indirect effect on international trade. Analyzing the experience of various countries, including both developed ones and the countries in the process of development, this paper aims to reveal how nations responded to these changes, as well as what strategies can work, and what difficulties can be encountered. Besides, the paper contains a prognosis of future developments of the international economy, having several scenarios and guidelines for practical implementation. These disconnects highlight the relevance of the critical philosophy in economic policy formulation since the globe economic policy should balance internal economic stable and international trade cooperation.

Unleashing the potential of MSMEs in India: A strategic analysis

ABSTRACT Micro-, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are crucial to the Indian economy, significantly contributing to employment, industrial output, and regional development. As of March 2024, India hosts approximately 40 million MSMEs, predominantly micro-enterprises, which together account for around 30 percent of Gross Domestic Product and employ over 110 million people. This article explores the multifaceted role of MSMEs, examining their distribution across manufacturing, trade, and services sectors. The manufacturing segment, including textiles and food processing, employs about 31 percent of the MSME workforce, while trade and services sectors contribute 33 percent and 36 percent, respectively. The study reviews financing mechanisms, government policies, and human capital development, assessing the MSME sector’s resilience and adaptability in the face of economic disruptions and policy changes. Linear regression analysis reveals stability in manufacturing, fluctuations in trade, and consistent growth in the services and electricity sectors. Despite the MSME sector’s significant contributions, MSMEs face challenges, such as limited access to finance, regulatory complexity, and technological gaps. Opportunities for growth include digital transformation, export expansion, and enhanced government support. Addressing these challenges through improved credit facilities, technological support, regulatory reforms, and infrastructure development is essential for sustaining MSME growth and competitiveness. The World Congress on MSMEs underscores the need for comprehensive policy frameworks to support the MSME sector’s ongoing development and their role in driving economic progress and regional development.

The Economic Policy Uncertainty on Firms Behavior

The study examines how economic policy uncertainty could affect firm behavior. It discusses how changes in economic policies can affect investment decisions, capital expenditure, innovation, and green behavior of firms. This topic focuses on analyzing the relationship between corporate financial decisions and consumer spending under policy uncertainty. It also explores the relationship between policy uncertainty and firms' overseas investments, environmental performance, governance practices, tax avoidance strategies, and cash-effective tax rates. The findings reveal the importance of cash holdings in alleviating the effects of policy uncertainty on firm activities and highlight the relationship between policy uncertainty and firms' carbon emission intensity. Overall, the study provides insights into the various aspects of corporate decision-making affected by economic policy uncertainty.

Dynamic financial modeling and feasibility studies for affordable housing policies: A conceptual synthesis

The escalating demand for affordable housing necessitates innovative approaches to financial modeling and feasibility analysis to ensure the success and sustainability of housing policies. This abstract presents a conceptual synthesis of dynamic financial modeling and feasibility studies, exploring their pivotal role in shaping effective affordable housing policies. Dynamic financial modeling involves creating flexible and adaptive financial models that account for varying economic conditions, policy changes, and market fluctuations. These models are essential for predicting financial outcomes, assessing the viability of housing projects, and guiding investment decisions. By incorporating real-time data and scenario analysis, dynamic financial models help stakeholders understand potential risks and opportunities, enabling more informed decision-making. Key components of dynamic financial modeling include cash flow analysis, sensitivity testing, and scenario planning, which together provide a comprehensive view of a project's financial viability over time. Feasibility studies complement financial modeling by evaluating the practical aspects of affordable housing projects, such as site selection, regulatory compliance, and market demand. These studies assess the alignment of housing projects with community needs and regulatory requirements, ensuring that proposed developments are both feasible and beneficial. Feasibility studies often include market analysis, cost estimates, and risk assessments, providing a detailed understanding of project constraints and opportunities. The synthesis of dynamic financial modeling and feasibility studies offers a robust framework for evaluating affordable housing policies. It allows for the integration of financial projections with practical considerations, ensuring that policies are not only economically viable but also aligned with social and regulatory objectives. Case studies from various regions demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach in identifying successful strategies and addressing common challenges. In conclusion, dynamic financial modeling and feasibility studies are crucial tools for developing and implementing effective affordable housing policies. They provide a comprehensive understanding of financial and practical dimensions, facilitating informed decision-making and enhancing the sustainability and impact of affordable housing initiatives. This conceptual synthesis underscores the importance of integrating these methodologies to achieve long-term success in addressing housing affordability challenges. Keywords: Policies, Affordable Housing, Feasibility Studies, Dynamic Financial Modeling, conceptual Synthesis.

Analysis of China's Economic and Trade Policy Changes and Future Trends of Japan under the Influence of Japanese Nuclear Sewage Incident—— The Marxist National Security Theory Based on Sinicization

On August 24, 2023, the Japanese government officially discharged the nuclear sewage stored in the Fukushima nuclear leakage accident into the sea to alleviate the overload situation of water storage pressure in relevant facilities. This approach directly brings great risks to the safety of the Marine environment and biological resources in the surrounding areas of Japan, and is more likely to seriously endanger the life safety and health of the people in the neighboring countries. Faced with this situation, China always adheres to the Chinese Marxist theory of national security and follows a holistic approach to national security. It adjusts its foreign policy based on the actual situation at home and abroad and takes targeted measures to adapt to the global situation. China firmly safeguards its national security and the interests of its people, providing new ideas and approaches to the international community and promoting a constructive approach to international relations.

A libertarian stabilization program and its consequences

Milei's victory in the 2023 presidential election in Argentina triggered a major change in economic policies. The new administration implemented a program aimed at avoiding hyperinflationary risks. In this article, we describe the program and argue that the risks that justified its implementation were overestimated, in light of historical data on hyperinflations. We also argue that this program imposes unnecessarily large costs on economic activity and assumes large risks of currency crises. Based on international evidence, we advocate an alternative approach to mitigate social impacts and reduce dependence on risky exchange rate dynamics.

Risk Management Strategies in Facing Global Financial Market Volatility

Global financial market volatility refers to the unpredictable fluctuations in the prices of financial assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. This volatility can stem from various factors such as economic indicators, geopolitical events, policy changes, technological advancements, and investor sentiment. This research aims to analyze effective risk management strategies in facing global financial market volatility. Market volatility often triggers anxiety, uncertainty, and irrational investment decisions. In this situation, it is important for investors to adopt the right strategies to minimize risks and maximize long-term investment outcomes. In this study, data is collected from various sources related to global financial market volatility and risk management strategies adopted by investors during periods of uncertainty. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of this data are conducted to identify patterns of investor behavior and the effectiveness of applied risk management strategies. The research findings indicate that maintaining a long-term perspective, retaining portfolio diversification, and taking an active approach to risk management are effective strategies in dealing with market volatility. Open communication with financial professionals is also proven to be essential in helping investors stay calm and make rational decisions.

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE LABOR MARKET IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS REGION

The purpose of this study is an econometric analysis of the labor market in the North Caucasus region in the Russian Federation. The article examines the main indicators characterizing the labor market, such as the average monthly nominal accrued wages of workers across the entire spectrum of economic organizations as a whole by business entities, the real average monthly accrued wages of workers, the share of the number of workers employed in work with harmful and/or dangerous conditions labor in organizations, Labor productivity index, Level of innovative activity of organizations, Degree of depreciation of fixed assets in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation of the Russian Federation across the entire spectrum of organizations, Consumer price indices for all goods and services by subject at the end of the period, Number of graduates of higher educational institutions that have a direct impact on the level of unemployment and labor force in the region. The relevance of the chosen topic is due to the study of the role of these indicators in the analysis of the region’s activities in an economic and social key. The structure of the article provides for a consistent presentation of the results of the analysis of each of the models, an assessment of their adequacy and explanatory power, as well as an interpretation of the obtained modeling results. Particular attention is paid to how changes in economic indicators and policies can affect the labor market and unemployment rates in the region. In conclusion, conclusions based on the results of the study are formulated and recommendations are proposed to stimulate economic growth and reduce unemployment in the North Caucasus Federal District.

Analisis Permasalahan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Negara Indonesia

The economic growth of Indonesia was triggered by commodity export sectors such as oil, gas, and agricultural products at the dawn of independence. However, changes in economic policies in the 1960s propelled the development of the manufacturing and heavy industry sectors. Several main factors supporting Indonesia's economic growth include structural reform policies, investment in infrastructure, and the advancement of the information technology sector. However, challenges such as economic disparities between regions, global uncertainty, and environmental issues also influence the course of economic growth. The impact of significant economic growth is evident in increased per capita income, decreased poverty rates, and improved access to education and healthcare services. Nevertheless, economic growth also brings negative impacts such as economic inequality that requires serious attention. In facing the future, Indonesia needs to maintain a balance between sustainable economic growth and environmental protection. Policies that support economic diversification, investment in human resources, and the development of innovative sectors will be the key to addressing global challenges and ensuring inclusive and sustainable economic growth in Indonesia.

CURRENT TRENDS OF ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY OF UKRAINE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The role of economic diplomacy in establishing and developing relations between countries has been substantiated, explained by the priority of economic interests. The aim of the article is to analyze the current trends of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the Middle East. The historical prerequisites for the formation of Ukraine's economic diplomacy and the main vectors of its foreign economic policy have been revealed. The dynamics of the regional structure of goods export from Ukraine have been analyzed, confirming that the countries of the CIS were in the focus of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the initial stages of independence. Changes in Ukraine's foreign economic policy after 2014 have been established, and the importance of cooperation with Middle Eastern countries has been argued. Emphasis is placed on cooperation with Turkey, the main trade partner for Ukraine among the Middle Eastern countries. An assessment of the dynamics of the foreign trade activity of both countries has been conducted, and the main vectors of cooperation, which include economic and investment spheres, cultural and educational cooperation, have been substantiated. The peculiarities of Ukraine's cooperation with Turkey since the beginning of the war have been highlighted. Using the SWOT analysis methodology, the strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in Ukraine's cooperation with the Middle East countries have been identified. The main consequences of expanding Ukraine's partnership with Middle Eastern countries, which will contribute to the diversification of trade between countries, the development of joint infrastructure projects, etc., have been singled out. Strategic directions for expanding Ukraine's presence in the Middle East countries have been proposed. Among the channels of disseminating information about Ukraine, attention is focused on the work of Ukraine's diplomatic missions abroad. It is proposed to revise the format of presenting information about Ukraine in the Middle East countries, involving representatives of foreign media. The effectiveness of using social media platforms and business channels for Ukraine's strategic penetration into the markets of this region has been confirmed. Other channels for forming Ukraine's image diplomacy in the Middle East have been identified. Prospective vectors of Ukraine's economic diplomacy in the region have been outlined.

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICY CHANGE ON OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA’S INVESTMENT IN CANADA

The resurgence of anti-globalization has made multinational companies concerned about the impact of host countries’ economic policy change on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). However, existing studies mainly focus on improving a host country’s institutional environment but ignore the impact of anti-globalization policies. This paper aims to complement this line of research by considering the effect of one-time economic policy shock on OFDI. In particular, using a unique dataset, this paper empirically investigates the effect of Canada’s review policy on investments by Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The results suggest that an intensified review policy effectively discouraged Chinese SOEs from investing in Canada. However, as a coping strategy to the review policy, Chinese SOEs continued to invest in Canada by adding more funding to the existing projects, establishing new businesses or investing in small-scale deals.

Investigating the Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Volatility Using the Smooth Threshold Model with an Emphasis on Economic Policies

Objective: This study aims to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market volatility, with a specific focus on the role of economic policies. The primary objective is to identify and analyze how the stock market responds to the COVID-19 crisis and the influence of economic policies on these responses. Methodology: To achieve the research objectives, the Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model was used to analyze stock market data from 1991 to 2022. Initially, stock market volatility was calculated using the ARCH and GARCH models. Then, the impact of COVID-19 and other economic variables on stock market volatility was assessed using the smooth threshold model. Findings: The findings of this study indicate that the COVID-19 crisis has had a positive and significant impact on stock market volatility. Additionally, changes in economic policies during the pandemic have led to increased market volatility. The study also revealed that during the COVID-19 period, stock market volatility was highly influenced by macroeconomic variables such as interest rates and industrial production indices. Conclusion: The study concludes that the COVID-19 crisis significantly increased stock market volatility, largely due to economic uncertainties and investors' psychological behaviors. The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers and market participants in better managing market volatility during similar economic and health crises.

СТРУКТУРНАЯ ДИНАМИКА РОССИЙСКОГО РЫНКА ТРУДА: ЭФФЕКТЫ САНКЦИОННЫХ ОГРАНИЧЕНИЙ

After February 2022, when the sanctions pressure on Russia radically increased, the conditions and factors of development of the national labor market changed significantly. Despite the decrease in the unemployment rate, which reached a minimum for the entire period of observations conducted by Rosstat in accordance with the ILO methodology, the tension in this market did not decrease. Its nature changed. Structural problems came to the fore. The transition of the economy after a relatively short recession to growth led not only to the preservation, but also to an increase in demand for labor. It became so significant that even with the maintenance of labor supply volumes, the problem of labor shortage sharply worsened, becoming a systemic problem. Its main indicators are a record decline in unemployment and an acceleration in the growth rate of vacancies. New priorities for economic development have led to shifts in the employment structure. Regional labor markets, especially those with persistently high unemployment, have received additional impetus for development. In their totality, the sanctions restrictions, coupled with changes in economic policy as a response to increased geopolitical challenges, have led to a change in the functioning of the Russian labor market. Statistical analysis allows us to assess the scale and nature of these changes, but the question of how sustainable they are remains open.

Принципы долгосрочного развития Дальнего Востока

Material written by the outstanding Russian economist, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, Professor Pavel Aleksandrovich Minakir (1947–2023) in 1990 and used in the preparation of the Concept of Long-Term Development of the Far East, is published. The strategic directions for the development of the productive forces of the Far Eastern economic region are considered, taking into account probable changes in general economic policy and the economic situation in the short and long term. Approaches to building a new economic policy in this region have not lost their relevance at the present stage of development

Factors influencing the transition of China's economic growth momentum

<abstract> <p>Driven by factors such as structural economic shifts, technological breakthroughs, policy changes, and global economic transformations, China's economic growth drivers have continuously evolved. We constructed a panel dataset encompassing 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2021 and utilized both panel data models and panel quantile models to delve into the underlying factors driving this transition. We further investigated the varying impacts of these factors across different temporal and geographical contexts based on the stage analysis and spatial cluster analysis. The findings revealed that capital accumulation, digital economy, and technological innovation were the major drivers shaping China's economic growth momentum transition, exhibiting significant heterogeneity across different quantile levels. Additionally, we observed heterogeneity in the influencing factors across temporal periods and regions.</p> </abstract>

The Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia from 2007 To 2022: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Approach

This study will examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on FDI. The gap in this study lies in the significant changes in economic conditions and investment policies in Indonesia since 2007, which previous studies have not fully explained. The possibility of new factors affecting FDI flows requires more sophisticated analyses. In addition, the relevance of internalized investment theory in the current context of economic globalization has not been widely explored in FDI research in Indonesia. This study uses Secondary time series data and quantitative research techniques. Quarterly data from 2007 to 2022 is the data set used. The research employs the Vector Error Correction Model data analysis technique, with a significance level of 5%. The findings indicate that the exchange rate has an insignificantly negative short-term impact on FDI and a significant negative long-term impact. Then, inflation has a short-term positive and insignificant impact on FDI but a significant negative in the long term. Meanwhile, the interest rate has a significant positive effect on FDI in the long term, but in the short term, it has a negative and insignificant effect.

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia di Era New Normal

This research examines the phenomenon of Indonesia's economic growth in the context of the New Normal era. This era is marked by significant changes in daily life, especially in response to the global pandemic that has hit the world. The main focus of this research is to analyze the impact of the New Normal on Indonesia's economic growth, taking into account changes in consumption patterns, adaptation of the business sector, and economic policies implemented by the government. This research method involves analyzing macroeconomic data, opinion surveys, and case studies to understand changes in consumer behavior, business strategies, and economic policies taken by the government. The research results show that Indonesia, like other countries, experienced a significant economic transformation during the New Normal period. Although there are challenges such as a decline in economic activity in several sectors, this research also identifies new opportunities that are emerging, especially in the digital and sustainable sectors. In addition, this research provides policy recommendations for the Indonesian government to strengthen and accelerate economic recovery amidst the New Normal. These recommendations include strengthening digital infrastructure, increasing investment in sustainable sectors, as well as developing policies that support digital transformation and sustainable business adaptation. It is hoped that this research can contribute to stakeholders, researchers and policy makers in understanding the dynamics of Indonesia's economic growth in the New Normal era, as well as providing a basis for developing strategies to face this challenging future.