Changes In Circulation Research Articles

Impact of stochastic physics on the representation of atmospheric blocking in EC-Earth3

Abstract. Atmospheric blocking is a synoptic-scale phenomenon that consists in an obstruction of the normal easterly progression of weather patterns in the midlatitudes, leading to persistent atmospheric conditions sometimes associated with extreme weather. State-of-the-art climate models systematically underestimate winter atmospheric-blocking frequency, especially over Europe. This is often attributed to a poor representation of small-scale processes that are fundamental for the onset and maintenance of blocking events. Here, we explore how the implementation of two stochastic parameterizations, namely the stochastically perturbed parameterization tendencies (SPPTs) and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) schemes, influences the representation of Northern Hemisphere winter blocking in EC-Earth3. We show that the activation of the two stochastic schemes has moderate detrimental effects on blocking representation, when assessed through a gradient reversal index. Using a zonal–blocked flow linear decomposition, we attribute such modification to changes in the mean winter atmospheric circulation, primarily manifested in a strengthening of the midlatitude jet stream and an intensification of the Hadley cell. Ultimately, an analysis of the meridional transport of zonal momentum by stationary and transient eddies reveals that these circulation differences arise from changes in tropical stationary-eddy activity. Our findings reconnect with earlier literature on similar experiments and suggest that the activation of stochastic parameterizations may require a retuning of the model to account for the resulting significant changes in the mean atmospheric circulation.

Indo-Pacific regional extremes aggravated by changes in tropical weather patterns

The Pacific Walker circulation and the closely connected El Niño/Southern Oscillation influence the climate and weather of the tropical Indo-Pacific region. They specifically exert a strong control on the regional occurrence of weather extremes, such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation and prolonged dry spells, which are becoming increasingly frequent and severe. However, climate models struggle to accurately simulate large-scale circulation changes in the tropics and thus their consequences for regional weather and future climate. Here we use high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2022 to study the occurrence trends of weather patterns in the tropical Indo-Pacific region. We find that new large-scale synoptic situations that were rarely present before the 1990s have emerged in the Indo-Pacific, while some others that were prominent have disappeared. Those new synoptic situations are associated with an unusual proportion of heatwaves and extreme precipitation in the region. These weather patterns are physically consistent with a trend towards a stronger Pacific Walker circulation, wetter and warmer conditions in Southeast Asia and drier conditions in the equatorial Pacific. These changes cannot be fully explained by El Niño/Southern Oscillation and other relevant modes of interannual variability, and other factors such as global warming, aerosol forcing, external forcing mechanisms and nonlinear mode interactions may be contributing.

Kilometer‐Scale Assessment of the Adriatic Dense Water Multi‐Decadal Dynamics

AbstractThe North Adriatic Dense Water (NAddW)—the densest Mediterranean water generated by extreme cooling during wintertime hurricane‐strength winds—drives the thermohaline circulation, ventilates the deep layers, and changes the biogeochemical properties of the Adriatic Sea. However, modeling the dynamical properties of such dense water at the climate scale has been a challenge for decades due to the complex coastal geomorphology of the Adriatic basin not properly reproduced by existing climate models. To overcome these deficiencies, a 31‐year‐long simulation (1987–2017) of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometer‐scale atmosphere‐ocean model is used to analyze the main NAddW dynamical phases (i.e., generation, spreading and accumulation). The study highlights four key results. First, during winter, the NAddW densities are higher in the shallow northern Adriatic shelf than in the deeper Kvarner Bay—where 25%–35% of the overall NAddW are found to be generated—due to a median bottom temperature difference of 2°C between the two generation sites. Second, the NAddW mass transported across most of the Adriatic peaks between February and May, except along the western side of the Otranto Strait. Third, for the accumulation sites, the bottom layer of the Kvarner Bay is found to be renewed annually while the renewal occurs every 1–3 years in the Jabuka Pit and every 5–10 years in the deep Southern Adriatic Pit. Fourth, the NAddW cascading and accumulation is more pronounced during basin‐wide high‐salinity conditions driven by circulation changes in the northern Ionian Sea.

The Role of Meridional Flow in the Generation of Solar/Stellar Magnetic Fields and Cycles

Meridional flow is crucial in generating the solar poloidal magnetic field by facilitating poleward transport of the field from decayed bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs). As the meridional circulation changes with the stellar rotation rate, the properties of stellar magnetic cycles are expected to be influenced by this flow. In this study, we explore the role of meridional flow in generating magnetic fields in the Sun and Sun-like stars using the STABLE (surface flux transport and Babcock–Leighton) dynamo model. We find that a moderate meridional flow increases the polar field by efficiently driving the trailing polarity flux toward the pole, while a strong flow tends to transport both polarities of BMRs poleward, potentially reducing the polar field. Our findings are in perfect agreement with what one can expect from the surface flux transport model. Similarly, the toroidal field initially increases with moderate flow speeds and then decreases beyond a certain value. This trend is due to the competitive effects of shearing and diffusion. Furthermore, our study highlights the impact of meridional flow on the strength and duration of stellar cycles. By including the meridional flow from a mean-field hydrodynamics model in STABLE, we show that the magnetic field strength initially increases with the stellar rotation rate and then declines in rapidly rotating stars, offering an explanation of the observed variation of stellar magnetic field with rotation rate.

Investigating ocean circulation dynamics through data assimilation: A mathematical study using the Stommel box model with rapid oscillatory forcings.

We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model, which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the ability of reproducing the meridional overturning circulation. The Stommel box model has at most two regimes: TH (temperature driven circulation with sinking near the north pole) and SA (salinity driven with sinking near the equator). Currently, the meridional overturning is in the TH regime. Using box-averaged Met Office EN4 ocean temperature and salinity data, our goal is to provide a probability that a future regime change occurs and establish how this probability depends on the uncertainties in initial conditions, parameters, and forcings. We will achieve this using data assimilation tools and DAPPER within the Stommel box model with fast oscillatory regimes.

Characteristics of financial capital flow circulation and the risk transmission effect in China

Financial capital is an important force driving China's economic modernisation. Examining the characteristics of financial capital flow circulation across sectors and risk transmission laws is crucial in guiding financial market operations and deepening financial system reforms. This study establishes a 2011–2020 China matrix that includes capital fund flow statements for non-financial corporations, financial institutions, the general government, households, and foreign sources and examines changes in capital flow circulation by developing a financial flow multiplier system model to measure the direct and indirect transmission effects of capital flows between sectors from the perspective of liabilities. Results show that China's overall scale of financial capital flows has increased, but fluctuations have emerged in the last decade. The sectors' financing structure has changed significantly, with financial institutions remaining the primary capital inflow and outflow sectors of the financial market; however, the proportion of liability and investment in the household sector has increased, resulting in increased risk transmission. Moreover, the sectoral fund surpluses and shortages are highly volatile and uncertain, with non-financial enterprises serving as the primary drivers of real-economy investment. The capital flow from financial services to the real economy shows a fluctuating growth trend, primarily flowing to non-financial corporations; however, the proportion exhibits a downwards trend. Finally, we find that the flow transmission relationship between different sectors and financial transactions in the financial market is complex, with both direct and indirect risk transmission effects between sectors. Changes of financial institutions' liabilities significantly affect the liabilities and investments of other sectors.

Air–Sea Coupling Feedbacks over Tropical Instability Waves

Abstract Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are oceanic features that form around the equatorial Pacific cold tongue and influence the large-scale circulation and coupled climate variability including El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Local air–sea coupling over TIWs is thought to play an important role in the atmosphere and ocean’s energy and tracer budgets but is not well captured in coarse-resolution models. In this study, we isolate the impacts of TIW thermal (sea surface temperature–driven) and current (surface current–driven) feedbacks by removing TIW signatures in air–sea coupling fields in a high-resolution regional coupled model. The thermal feedback is found to damp TIW temperature variance by a factor of 2, associated both with the direct dependence of surface heat fluxes on SST (∼74%) and indirect impacts on surface winds (∼35%) and air temperature and humidity (∼−9%). These changes lead to cooling of the cold tongue SST by up to 0.1°C through reduced TIW-driven meridional heat fluxes and associated small changes in atmospheric circulation. The current feedback is decomposed into TIW (i.e., mesoscale) and mean (i.e., large-scale) components using separate experiments, with both having distinct impacts on TIWs and the mean state. The mesoscale current feedback reduces TIW eddy kinetic energy (EKE) by 22% through the eddy wind work, while the mean current feedback induces a further reduction of 8% by extracting energy from the mean currents and thus reducing barotropic EKE shear production. An improved understanding of small-scale tropical Pacific processes is needed to address biases in coarse-resolution models that impact their predictions and projections of Pacific climate variability and change. Significance Statement Tropical instability waves (TIWs) are oceanic features with ∼1000-km wavelengths that propagate westward on either side of the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue. TIWs drive lateral and vertical heat fluxes that impact several aspects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. While climate models with a moderate, 1/4° ocean resolution can capture some TIW variability, they fail to properly represent many associated processes such as the impact of TIWs on the overlying atmosphere. Using sensitivity studies performed using a high-resolution regional coupled model, we study the impact of TIW air–sea coupling on the eastern Pacific climate system. Increased understanding of small-scale processes from studies such as this is essential to understand and address biases in models used for seasonal climate predictions and projections in the Pacific region.

Evolution of continental inputs and watermass during cretaceous oceanic anoxic event 2 in the Neo-Tethyan region: Evidence from Nd-isotopes in southern Tibet

During the mid-Cretaceous extreme greenhouse (~ 90 to 125 Ma), changes in continental inputs and water-mass circulation influenced nutrient distribution and set the stage for ocean anoxia. Investigation of these changes is critical for an understanding of contemporaneous global-ocean evolution. Previous studies on δ66Zn, δ15N, δ13C and 187OS/188Os isotopes in the Neo-Tethyan Ocean inferred both of these changes might be responsible for the continuous nutrient supply required to cause expansion of carbon burial during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2). Here, we applied the hydroxylamine hydrochloride (HH) extraction procedure to the analysis of Nd isotopic compositions of sediments collected from the mid-Cretaceous Dongshan and Lengqingre formations in southern Tibet. Our Nd isotope [εNd(t)] records exhibit a large negative excursion (from −9.8 to −6.1) during the Cenomanian-Turonian period, but little variation (−6.5 to −5.2) during the Aptian period. Major and trace elements as well as εNd(t) of residues indicate that the HH-extracted Nd in this study is mainly sourced from authigenic FeMn oxides. To evaluate the robustness of our εNd(t) records, we examined the potential influences of the detrital fraction. Our ɛNd(t) records reflect a mixing signal of surface currents from the Central Pacific and continental weathering inputs, and the corresponding negative excursion is triggered by the changes of continental weathering inputs in the Neo-Tethyan region, which was synchronous with the change of riverine systems during the drift of the Greater Indian Plate in the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse. Further, the enhanced continental weathering inputs, which supplied continuous nutrients to the Neo-Tethyan ocean, have likely caused OAE2 and extended the duration of OAE2. Our εNd(t) records shed new lights on our understanding of OAE2 during the mid-Cretaceous.

Is the Regime Shift in Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings Detected by Satellite Altimetry? An Inter‐Comparison of Eddy Identification and Tracking Products

AbstractDownstream of Cape Hatteras, the vigorously meandering Gulf Stream forms anticyclonic warm core rings (WCRs) that carry warm Gulf Stream and Sargasso Sea waters into the cooler, fresher Slope Sea, and forms cyclonic cold core rings (CCRs) that carry Slope Sea waters into the Sargasso Sea. The Northwest Atlantic shelf and open ocean off the U.S. East Coast have experienced dramatic changes in ocean circulation and water properties in recent years, with significant consequences for marine ecosystems and coastal communities. Some of these changes may be related to a reported regime shift in the number of WCRs formed annually, with a doubling of WCRs shed after 2000. Since the regime shift was detected using a regional eddy‐tracking product, primarily based on sea surface temperatures and relies on analyst skill, we examine three global eddy‐tracking products as an automated and potentially more objective way to detect changes in Gulf Stream rings. Currently, global products rely on altimeter‐measured sea surface height (SSH), with WCRs registering as sea surface highs and CCRs as lows. To identify eddies, these products use either SSH contours or a Lagrangian approach, with particles seeded in satellite‐based surface geostrophic velocity fields. This study confirms the three global products are not well suited for statistical analysis of Gulf Stream rings and suggests that automated WCR identification and tracking comes at the price of accurate identification and tracking. Furthermore, a shift to a higher energy state is detected in the Northwest Atlantic, which coincides with the regime shift in WCRs.

Hypothalamic cerebrospinal fluid-contacting neurons project to the rostral agranular insular cortex: An immunofluorescence and ultrastructural analysis in the rat.

Cerebrospinal fluid-contacting neurons (CSF-cNS) are considered mechanoreceptors and chemoreceptors involved in detecting changes in CSF circulation. However, considering that recent data suggest that this type of cell could exert an active response when an external stimulus is sensed, identification of CSF-cNS may be relevant. In this regard, some data suggest that a neuronal connection exists between the ventral region of the hypothalamic paraventricular nucleus (PVN) and rostral agranular insular cortex (RAIC); indeed, a potential CSF-cNS is hypothesized. However, a detailed analysis of this connection has not been conducted. Thus, using neuronal tracers (Fluoro-Gold® (FG) and cholera toxin (ChT)) coupled with transmission electron microscopy and immunofluorescence assays against Fluoro-Gold®, oxytocin (OXT), vasopressin (AVP) and oxytocin receptors (OTR), we describe an oxytocinergic or vasopressinergic CSF-cNS between the PVN and RAIC. Our results showed that CSF-cNS along the PVN labelled with oxytocin and/or AVP were present in dendritic projections near the third ventricle. This CSF-cNS in the PVN seems to project to the RAIC. Inside the RAIC, ultrastructural analysis showed that axons immunopositive for oxytocin from the PVN sustained synaptic connections with neurons that expressed OTR. These findings show that the CSF-cNS from the PVN sends projections to the RAIC. To the best of our knowledge, the relevance of CSF-cNS has not been elucidated; however, we hypothesized that the activation of cells could concomitantly release neuropeptides (i.e., oxytocin and AVP) in the CSF and RAIC. Thus, further analysis of the impact of neuropeptides released into the third ventricle and RAIC is warranted.

SST trends in certain areas of the Barents Sea in the winter season and mechanisms of their formation

The climate changes observed over the past few decades are most clearly manifested in the Arctic Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most reliable indicators of climate change. In this paper we analyze the changes of winter SST for the western, northeastern and southeastern regions of the Barents Sea and examine the relationship of the emerging STS trends with the influence of various external factors. The working data set is represented by average monthly SST values taken from the ERA-5 reanalysis for the period 1949–2023 with a spatial resolution of 0.25×0.25° and average water temperature values on the Kola Meridian section in the 0–50 m layer. Additionally, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Arctic Dipole (AD) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices were used as external factors that may affect SST variability. The time series analyzed was divided into three periods: 1949–1969, 1970–1990, 1991–2023, where the variability of the analyzed parameters was different. Thus, in the first period the trend in SST changes was negative, for the second period it was slightly negative or neutral, and for the third period it was positive. It is shown that SST in all the regions of the Barents Sea has undergone significant changes, which were most noticeable in the “warm” period of 1991–2023, when the rate of SST increasing was up to 10·10-2 °C/year in areas under the warm Atlantic water influence. The analysis of SST variability in the Barents Sea shows that the positive anomalies observed in the recent years are most likely associated with the changes in the atmospheric circulation. The Wavelet coherence analysis showed the closest agreement between the changes in the sea surface temperature and the AD index in the winter season, and with the AMO index.

Chemostratigraphy and mineralogical characterization of Piacenzian sapropels cluster A (2.75–2.57 Ma) in the Gelasian GSSP type-section of Monte San Nicola (Sicily, Italy): Paleoenvironmental and paleogeographic implications

Mineralogical, geochemical and stable isotope (δ18O, δ13C) data from Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) G4 to 103 are here presented. The studied interval includes the sapropelic cluster A (A2-A5) from the Gelasian GSSP type-section, outcropping at Monte San Nicola (Sicily, Italy). The studied section exhibits a good response of the δ18O measured on the bulk carbonate to the Earth's astronomical parameters. The sapropelic red/brown layers (A2- A5) are alternated to grey marls and this cyclicity is clearly evident by the difference in colour, organic matter content, redox-sensitive elements and runoff indicators, tied to the precession/insolation cycles. Further, the obliquity signal is well evident in paleoproductivity indicators and mineralogical composition, driven by glacial-interglacial cycles. The obtained dataset has allowed the reconstruction of the paleoenvironmental conditions during marls/sapropels deposition, which appears to be influenced by the precessional forcing that induced strong changes in the marine water circulation. This scenario is also integrated by an original paleogeographic model including the presence of a high topographic structure in SE Sicily that limited water exchanges between the Ionian and Central Mediterranean Seas during sea level drawdowns, caused by glacial phases, triggered by obliquity minima.

Enhanced ocean heat storage efficiency during the last deglaciation

Proxy reconstructions suggest that increasing global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) during the last deglaciation was accompanied by a comparable or greater increase in global mean ocean temperature (GMOT), corresponding to a large heat storage efficiency (HSE; ∆GMOT/∆GMSST). An increased GMOT is commonly attributed to surface warming at sites of deepwater formation, but winter sea ice covered much of these source areas during the last deglaciation, which would imply an HSE much less than 1. Here, we use climate model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions of ocean temperature changes to show that an increased deglacial HSE is achieved by warming of intermediate-depth waters forced by mid-latitude surface warming in response to greenhouse gas and ice sheet forcing as well as by reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation associated with meltwater forcing. These results, which highlight the role of surface warming and oceanic circulation changes, have implications for our understanding of long-term ocean heat storage change.

Source partitioning of dissolved inorganic carbon addition to Pacific Winter Water in the western Arctic Ocean

AbstractPacific Winter Water (PWW) with high dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) is the key water mass in which subsurface acidification occurs in the western Arctic Ocean. To investigate and partition carbon sources added to PWW across the Chukchi shelf to the adjacent Canada Basin, we investigated the distributions of DIC and its stable isotope (δ13C‐DIC) with other hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters during the Mirai cruise in the late summer of 2021. Using a four‐end‐member mixing model, we deciphered the water masses and separated DIC changes induced by biological processes from those induced by conservative mixing. We demonstrated that DIC dynamics in PWW were mainly controlled by the biological decomposition of organic carbon (OC). A mass balance model analysis of DIC and δ13C‐DIC suggested that the apparent δ13C signature of the respired organic carbon (δ13COCx) within PWW was −22.2‰ ± 1.1‰ on the shelf and −25.6‰ ± 1.6‰ in the basin. Therefore, we concluded that marine‐origin OC was the dominant carbon source that was decomposed in the Chukchi shelf bottom water, while respired terrestrial‐origin carbon made a major contribution to DIC pool in the basin PWW. We proposed that terrestrial OC from the Chukchi and Beaufort coastal seas could be an important carbon source, which was associated with winter water formation on the shelves and influenced by Beaufort Gyre state shift and circulation changes. This unconventional finding has important ramifications for the prediction of the future state of ocean acidification in the western Arctic Ocean.

Diatom silicon isotope ratios in Quaternary research: Where do we stand?

Silicon stable isotope ratios (expressed as δ30Si) in biogenic silica have been widely used as a proxy for past and present biogeochemical cycling in both marine and lacustrine settings, in particular for nutrient utilization reconstructions. Yet an analysis of publication trends suggests a significant decline in the application of δ30Si to Quaternary science questions in the last five years. At the same time as δ30Si proxy applications have decreased, we are learning more about its complexities: an expanding body of work is highlighting biases, caveats or complications involved in the application of δ30Si-based approaches to the sediment record. These include the demonstration of species-specific silicon isotope fractionation factors (i.e. ‘vital effects’) or the potential for Fe or other trace metals to influence silicon isotope fractionation. Others have inferred the potential of biogenic silica dissolution to alter an initial δ30Si value, or questioned the preservation of the initial δ30Si through early diagenetic processes more generally. Another challenge receiving more attention is centered around deconvolving a δ30Si-value into a signal reflecting biological productivity and a signal reflecting changes in the δ30Si of dissolved silicon driven by whole-system and/or circulation changes. Finally, a number of studies focus on analytical difficulties, especially during sample preparation related to achieving and demonstrating a contaminant free biogenic silica. These challenges lead us to posit that the Quaternary science community is moving away from silicon isotope proxies because they are losing confidence in their reliability and usefulness. Here, focusing on the diatoms – the dominant biosilicifiers in both lakes and the ocean – we synthesize progress in understanding nuances and caveats of δ30Si-based proxies in order to answer whether the fall-off in δ30Si-based Quaternary research is warranted. We suggest that with some simple steps that can be readily implemented, and with the closing of key knowledge gaps, there is no reason to believe silicon isotopes do not have a promising future in the Quaternary sciences.

Rising Extreme Meltwater Trends in Greenland Ice Sheet (1950–2022): Surface Energy Balance and Large-Scale Circulation Changes

Abstract The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) meltwater runoff has increased considerably since the 1990s, leading to implications for the ice sheet mass balance and ecosystem dynamics in ice-free areas. Extreme weather events will likely continue to occur in the coming decades. Therefore, a more thorough understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns of extreme melting events is of interest. This study aims to analyze the evolution of extreme melting events across the GrIS and determine the climatic factors that drive them. Specifically, we have analyzed extreme melting events (90th percentile) across the GrIS from 1950 to 2022 and examined their links to the surface energy balance (SEB) and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Extreme melting days account for approximately 35%–40% of the total accumulated melting per season. We found that extreme melting frequency, intensity, and contribution to the total accumulated June–August (summer) melting show a statistically significant upward trend at a 95% confidence level. The largest trends are detected across the northern GrIS. The trends are independent of the extreme melting percentile rank (90th, 97th, or 99th) analyzed and are consistent with average melting trends that exhibit an increase in similar magnitude and spatial configuration. Radiation plays a dominant role in controlling the SEB during extreme melting days. The increase in extreme melting frequency and intensity is driven by the increase in anticyclonic weather types during summer and more energy available for melting. Our results help to enhance the understanding of extreme events in the Arctic.

Influence of Natural External Forcings on Interdecadal Variation of Global Land Monsoon over the Last Millennium in CESM-LME

Abstract Interdecadal variations of the global land monsoon have been previously attributed to internal fluctuations of the climate system, but the role of natural external forcings was underexplored. Here, we investigate this issue by using the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations over the last millennium (LM) (AD 950–1850). Our analysis reveals that the surface temperature, with two dominant structures (global cooling/warming and longitudinal sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific, which affects the Walker circulation), predominantly shapes the leading forced mode of the global land monsoon. This mode, representing 19% of the total variance, manifests as consistent features across South Asia, the southern part of East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa, contrasting with other monsoon regions. Under global cooling conditions, the monsoon intensity is enhanced in the northern parts of the East Asian and eastern parts of the North and South African monsoons, but it decreases in the other monsoon regions. Under weak Walker circulation conditions, changes in atmospheric circulation in response to the sea surface temperature gradient in the tropical Pacific are associated with a substantial attenuation of almost all land monsoon regions. It was further shown that the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient jointly account for 75% of the total variance in the leading mode of the global land monsoon, with 29% and 46% as their respective contributions. Furthermore, our results suggest that volcanic eruptions are the dominant external forcing for these variations. These findings provide valuable insights for future research on global monsoon dynamics. Significance Statement Our study using the Community Earth System Model reveals that surface temperature significantly impacts decadal global land monsoon (GLM) variations during the last millennium. Two key factors in relation to global-scale cooling/warming and changes in the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient affect the GLM’s leading forced mode. The leading forced GLM features remain consistent across regions like South Asia, southern East Asia, North Australia, South America, and western South Africa. Under global cooling, monsoon intensities in most land monsoon regions are enhanced, while they are reduced in northern East Asian land monsoon regions. In contrast, weak tropical Pacific temperature gradient conditions cause a decrease in intensities in almost all land monsoon regions. Additionally, the global mean surface temperature and the tropical Pacific temperature gradient account for 75% of the total variance in the leading forced GLM variations, contributing 29% and 46%, respectively. Notably, volcanic eruptions emerge as the key external factor influencing these variations.

Early Devonian bioclastic contourites in the High Atlas: a plastered drift recording the convergence between Gondwana and Laurussia (Sub-Meseta Zone, Morocco)

Bottom-current deposits, formed in association with ancient oceanic gateways, preserve records of past global oceanic circulation, plate-tectonic events, and palaeogeographic change. This outcrop study showcases a Pragian to early Emsian carbonate-contourite drift, plastered on the northern upper margin of Gondwana, which recorded the convergence of Laurussia and Gondwana and the (temporal) closure of the nearby American Gateway. The results underscore the value of bed-scale features, including microfacies and primary sedimentary structures, in interpreting bottom-current dynamics. The documented contourite-specific bi-gradational sequences, 40 to 80 cm thick, are largely complete and well-comparable with the standard facies sequence identified in modern oceans. The bioclastic contourites show subtle variations in grain size and mud content in the lower part, distinct sequences of inverse-to-normal grading at different scales in the middle, and a large variety of traction structures in the upper part of the succession. This long-term coarsening-upward trend was caused by a successive increase in maximum bottom-current strength during drift growth. Traction structures such as current ripples and dunes document a westward-directed palaeocirculation of surface or intermediate water during the Pragian-Emsian. They provide evidence of enhanced bottom-current episodes towards the top of the drift, before the contourites were buried by late Emsian shales.

Changing circulations challenge the sustainability of cold water mass and associated ecosystem under climate change

Bottom cold water mass provides abundant nutrients and cool water in summer, playing a pivotal role in the productivity of marine ecosystem and sustainable aquaculture development. Located in the most densely populated region, the Yellow Sea cold water mass (YSCWM) is a unique one influencing hundreds of millions of people living in the rim of the Yellow Sea. As anthropogenic carbon emissions continue, how the YSCWM will be altered by climate change becomes a pressing issue, but remains elusive. Using an unprecedented set of climate models with high resolution and biogeochemical components, we find that the volume of the YSCWM will shrink by 48% to 2040–2050, along with the bottom temperature warming of 0.4 ± 0.1 °C dec−1 and the dissolved oxygen concentration declining of 0.09 ± 0.04 mg (L dec)−1. The significant destruction of the YSCWM is driven by the strengthened Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC). The reduced land-sea thermal contrast is the cause of the circulation change, by weakening the East Asian winter monsoon. Due to the resultant profound habitat reduction for marine life, predicting the change of the YSCWM will have far-reaching influences on the future policy-making for sustainable development of offshore aquaculture.

Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate

Models and proxy data suggest multi-centennial nutrient reorganization and biological productivity changes under sustained climate warming. These changes have traditionally been attributed to processes in the Southern Ocean. Here we instead show that transient overturning circulation adjustments, associated with changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), dominate the global nutrient reorganization on centennial timescales. Following an AMOC weakening, a typical feature of a warming climate, a transient overturning circulation develops in the Indo-Pacific basins, characterized by enhanced southward transport in the deep ocean. Coupled with the vertical nutrient structure, these transient overturning changes produce a net transport of nutrients from the Indo-Pacific into the Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, isopycnal surfaces deepen and bring nutrient-depleted waters to greater depths, causing nutrient concentrations to decline in much of the global upper ocean. Given the close link between nutrients and carbon, our findings suggest that transient overturning circulation changes across different basins can critically affect the marine carbon cycle.