Change In Central America Research Articles

Mid-Holocene hydroclimatic change and hurricane activity in Central America recorded by an Isla de Mona Stalagmite

In recent years, Puerto Rico has been repeatedly hit by drought and hurricane, causing severe damage to the local society and economy. Therefore, understanding the region's climate variability and predicting extreme weather has become an important scientific problem. Cave stalagmites are widely recognized as high-quality terrestrial paleoclimate proxies due to their accurate dating and high resolution. In this study, we present a stalagmite-based multi-proxy reconstruction of hurricane and hydrological changes in Central America from the island of Isla de Mona, Puerto Rico, for the mid-Holocene period (4700–6260 a BP). Our data suggest a significant influence of solar activity on rainfall patterns in Central America via changes in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Our study further shows that El Niño may have played a role in influencing hurricane development at a decadal scale, and also found that the relationship of hurricane activities and El Niño intensity on the decadal and centennial scale is variable. The implications of our findings are crucial for informing contemporary climate models and enhancing our preparedness for potential future climate scenarios in the region.

Exploring the cooling effect of shading for climate change adaptation in coffee areas

Rising air temperatures are the main reason for the expected reduction in land suitability for coffee cultivation under climate change in Central America. One of the reasons farmers use shade trees is to create a cooler microclimate in coffee plantations located in warming areas; therefore, adjusting the shade levels could alleviate future high temperatures. Even though data on expected climatic changes are available, no studies have addressed the cooling potential of shading in coffee production systems. In this study, we use regional climate information (RCP 4.5) and a simple shade model to explore the potential of shading as an adaptation practice in the coffee areas in Central America. A model was developed to estimate the required shade levels for Coffea arabica L. based on mean air temperature. Modeled and observed shade data were compared. Results indicate that compared to 2000, an overall increment of 23 ± 18% of shading would be required to alleviate the warming conditions by 2050. The shading will be more beneficial to coffee areas at medium and high altitudes than to areas at low ones. Also, the number of coffee areas that require dense shade levels (shading > 60%) may double by 2050. This would lead to a boost in tree biomass (carbon content) but also increase the competition for the coffee plants and consequently affect coffee yields. Trade-offs between adaptation, mitigation, and productivity objectives are expected in the coffee areas in the future.

Climate Variability and Change in Central America: What Does It Mean for Water Managers?

Central America is a unique climate region in the world, due to its location and shape, as well as the many large and local scale climate processes that influence its variability and change at a large range of spatial and time scales. Observed temperature trends have been increasing significantly and they are expected to increase even more in the future, potentially increasing aridity. Managers should make an informed decision on whether a sophisticated modeling approach is best for your region, or simpler approaches are available for determining shorter term planning. Always ask and question the uncertainty of information that is presented. Use this modeling information as a dynamic and constantly changing effort, as future evolves new analysis would need to be performed as models and data become more accurate.

Generations and Change in Central America: An Introduction

AbstractIn this introduction we consider generation and change in Central America as part of the celebration of the twenty‐fifth anniversary of this journal. We reflect on meanings of generation, starting with Salvador Allende's 1972 declaration: “To be young and not revolutionary may even be a biological contradiction.” Karl Mannheim's theorization of generation as a cohort sharing formative experiences in particular historical moments, often requiring “wholly new minds,” becomes crucial in our understanding of the concept. To follow Mannheim's claim, we trace histories of Central American political generations in the past half‐century. While our collection uncovers many moments of generational difference and tension—particularly in Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador—we also find that conflicts can be opportunities for dialogue, for forms of mutual engagement, as cases in Costa Rica and Guatemala demonstrate.

Integration of Geospatial Tools and Multi-source Geospatial Data to Evaluate the Tropical Forest Cover Change in Central America and Its Methodological Replicability in Brazil and the DRC

Satellite monitoring of forests plays a relevant role in the agendas of tropical countries, mainly in the framework of international negotiations to implement a mechanism that ensures a reduction in global CO2 emissions from deforestation. An efficient way to approach this monitoring is to avoid duplication of efforts, generating products in a regional context that are subsequently adopted at the national level. In this effort, you should take advantage of the different data sources available by integrating geospatial tools and satellite image classification algorithms. In this research, a methodological framework was developed to generate cost-efficient national maps of forest cover and its dynamics for the countries of Central America, and its scalability and replicability was explored in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and the State of Pará in Brazil. The maps were generated from Landsat images from the years 2000, 2012, and 2017. New geoprocessing elements have been incorporated into the digital classification procedures for satellite images, such as the automated extraction of training samples from secondary sources, the use of official national reference maps that respond to nationally adopted forest definitions, and automation of post-classification adjustments incorporating expert criteria. The applied regional approach offers advantages in terms of reducing costs and time, as well as improving the consistency and coherence of reports at different territorial levels (regional and national), reducing duplication of efforts and optimizing technical and financial resources. In Central America, the percentage of forest area decreased from 44% in 2000 to 38% in 2017. Average deforestation in the 2000–2012 period was 197,443 ha/year and that of 2012–2017 was 332,243 ha/year. Average deforestation for the complete period 2000–2017 was 264,843 ha/year. The tropical forests in both the State of Pará, Brazil, and the DRC have decreased over time.

The Trifinio Region: a case study of transboundary forest change in Central America

ABSTRACTStrategic planning to increase forest cover in Central American transboundary areas of the Mesoamerican Biological Corridor requires understanding land-cover and land-use change trends and drivers. We estimated forest cover change from remotely sensed land-cover and land-use classifications from 1986, 2001, and 2010, in the tri-national Trifinio Region, bordering El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. Our analysis spanned subnational, national, regional, and protected border areas. We determined correlations with direct drivers of deforestation, developing a multilevel linear regression model. Higher population density significantly correlated with deforestation; coffee, agroforestry, and pasture replaced forests. The tri-national park retained forests compared to neighboring areas, but additionality requires more research. The literature on drivers suggests similar processes and factors in other tropical regions. Forest cover governance efficacy is highly variable. Results indicate relationship between governance and forest cover though more comprehensive understanding of this complex region is needed to determine their causality.

A chironomid-based reconstruction of late-Holocene climate and environmental change for southern Pacific Costa Rica

A lake sediment profile spanning the last ~3200 years from Laguna Zoncho in the southern Pacific region of Costa Rica was analyzed for sub-fossil chironomids. Notable shifts in chironomid assemblages occurred during the late-Holocene. A distinct chironomid community, dominated by Tanypodinae such as Procladius and Labrundinia, appeared after ~550 cal. yr BP (~1400 CE). Prior to this time, the chironomid assemblage was more diverse, with taxa such as Paratanytarsus, Tanytarsus type N, and Cladotanytarsus important constituents of the chironomid community. A chironomid-based inference model for mean annual air temperature (MAAT), developed using partial least squares (PLS 2-component), was applied to sub-fossil chironomid assemblages from Laguna Zoncho to reconstruct late-Holocene thermal variability for the region. The key findings from this study are as follows: (1) chironomid-inferred MAAT at ~2740–1220 cal. yr BP (790 BCE–730 CE) was 1.2°C higher than the late-Holocene (~3200 cal. yr BP to present in this study) average of 21.3°C; (2) MAAT at ~470–90 cal. yr BP (1480–1860 CE) was 1.3°C lower than the late-Holocene average, potentially reflecting ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) cooling; and (3) evidence for an extended period of low lake levels between 1220 and 840 cal. yr BP (730–1110 CE) possibly indicated the influence of the Terminal Classic Drought (TCD) in southern Costa Rica. This study pioneers the use of sub-fossil chironomid remains to develop quantitative estimates of Holocene thermal variability and environmental change in Central America.

Interactions between Climate, Land Use and Vegetation Fire Occurrences in El Salvador

Vegetation burning is a global environmental threat that results in local ecological, economic and social impacts but also has large-scale implications for global change. The burning is usually a result of interacting factors such as climate, land use and vegetation type. Despite its importance as a factor shaping ecological, economic and social processes, countries highly vulnerable to climate change in Central America, such as El Salvador, lack an assessment of this complex relationship. In this study we rely on remotely sensed measures of the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) and thermal anomaly detections by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to identify vegetation cover changes and fire occurrences. We also use land use data and rainfall observations derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data to determine the spatial and temporal variability and interactions of these factors. Our results indicate a highly marked seasonality of fire occurrence linked to the climatic variability with a peak of fire occurrences in 2004 and 2013. Low vegetation indices occurred in March–April, around two months after the driest period of the year (December–February), corresponding to months with high detection of fires. Spatially, 65.6% of the fires were recurrent and clustered in agriculture/cropland areas and within 1 km of roads (70%) and only a 4.7% of fires detected were associated with forests. Remaining forests in El Salvador deserve more attention due to underestimated consequences of forest fires. The identification of these clear patterns can be used as a baseline to better shape management of fire regimes and support decision making in this country. Recommendations resulting from this work include focusing on fire risk models and agriculture fires and long-term ecological and economic consequences of those. Furthermore, El Salvador will need to include agricultural fires in the contribution to national accounts emissions.

An Overview of Urban Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in Central America & the Caribbean Region

Central America and the Caribbean is one of the most hazard-prone regions in the world. In addition, the region is heavily affected by poverty, unemployment, critical management of natural resources, and urban conglomeration in capital cities, especially in the Small Island Developing States, increasing vulnerability and risk to natural disasters and climate change. This paper examines characteristics of urban vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change in the Central America and the Caribbean Region. It argues that even though the region is not vast in size, the diversity within creates different characteristics of vulnerability to natural disasters and thus requires an extensive variety of disaster risk reduction approaches and adaptation techniques.

Migration, remittances and smallholder decision-making: Implications for land use and livelihood change in Central America

We model Central American migrant-sending household agricultural practices given labor losses and the concomitant infusion of remittances. Under the new economics of labor migration (NELM) framework, it is hypothesized that smallholder farm households invest remittance income in their land either to increase crop production or to transition to cattle ranching. We test this hypothesis by developing a combination of multivariate logistic, Poisson and beta regression techniques using Latin American Migration Project data to determine how agricultural land use change compared among migrant and non-migrant households in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. Results indicate that a rise in months spent abroad and remittances returned do not translate into a higher percentage of farm sales, intensification or transition to cattle ranching – counter to NELM. However, farmers are investing remittances to increase row crop and pasture land holdings. These findings suggest remittance investments in quantitative increase rather than qualitative change in land use practices. Given the expansive land demands supporting low intensity smallholder agriculture and cattle, and the land degradation cattle precipitate particularly, the trend does not augur well for the sustainability of rural landscapes increasingly transformed by international remittances. Appropriate policies to champion coupled human-land system sustainability in Central America might usefully consider viable land use alternatives to remittance investments dedicated to crop and pasture expansion.

Some physical and socio-economic aspects of climate change in Central America

The relative magnitude of precipitation and temperature changes obtained from 21st-century climate change projections from general circulation models (GCMs) is compared to the changes in a selection of socio-economic indicators from countries in Central America. The objectives of the study are: (1) to determine the relative influence of climatic and socio-economic variables for different 21st-century scenarios; and (2) to compare the relative situation of each of the countries of Central America, considering climate and socio-economic variables during present and future scenarios. Each socio-economic variable along with the projected changes in precipitation and temperature are used to produce red-green-blue (RGB) composite maps during the historical, mid-century, and end-of-21st-century horizon scenarios. The most consistent result is that the current north–south socio-economic contrast between the countries (in which the southern countries of Panama and Costa Rica present better living conditions than the rest of the Central American countries), is not diminished in the future; and for some combination of scenarios this contrast is exacerbated by future socio-economic differences and climate change impacts. Moreover, Panama and Costa Rica are the only countries that present improved living conditions at the end of the century when considering increases in gross domestic product (GDP) and the effects of climate change. It is worrisome that the north–south differences in the living standards will keep growing in the region, and attention should be given to socio-economic and physical aspects that may play a role in increasing these differences.

Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it’s important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it’s unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

Identifying critical areas for conservation: Biodiversity and climate change in central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic

Given the rapidity and intensity of anthropogenic impacts on natural systems, assessing the effectiveness of current protected areas in preserving biodiversity is especially important in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, which contain a wide array of species and ecosystems. In light of the growing need to consider climate change in policymaking, combining climate change projections with biodiversity maps allows scientists and decision-makers to understand possible climate change impacts on biodiversity. In this study, we use GIS to identify spatial relationships between regional climate change models and species habitat ranges for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. Evaluating possible effects of climate change in terms of temperature and precipitation involves three factors: historical averages, historical ranges, and future averages. Because different ecosystems and species exist at different temperature and precipitation ranges, we consider “comfort zones” of each area. We develop a quantitative, spatial measurement of climate change intensity of each area by calculating the difference between historical and future averages and dividing that difference by the area's comfort zone, at a spatial resolution of 1km2. The result is a normalized grid of projected climate change severity. According to the modeling results, should worst case scenario conditions prevail, by the 2020s, the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, will be significantly impacted by climate change. By the 2080s, all of the ecosystems and species of Central America and the Dominican Republic may be subjected to conditions well outside of their traditional comfort zone, while most of Mexico's ecosystems and species are at lower risk of severe climate change impacts. Integrating species richness data with the climate change severity analyses identifies critical areas that may require specific interventions to facilitate the adaptation of species to climate change. The information generated points not only to the utility of current protected areas, but is also useful in guiding the development of new protected areas and biological corridors, for the reduction of the potential impacts of future climate change.

Danuta Paszyn, The Soviet Attitude to Political and Social Change in Central America, 1979–90: Case-Studies on Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala (Basingstoke: Macmillan Press in association with the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of London, 2000), pp. xi+161, £45.00 hb.

Danuta Paszyn, <i>The Soviet Attitude to Political and Social Change in Central America, 1979–90: Case-Studies on Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala</i> (Basingstoke: Macmillan Press in association with the School of Slavonic and East European Studies, University of London, 2000), pp. xi+161, £45.00 hb.

Women and Social Movements in Latin America: Power from below. Lynn StephenWomen of Belize: Gender and Change in Central America. Irma McClaurin

<i>Women and Social Movements in Latin America: Power from below</i>. Lynn Stephen<i>Women of Belize: Gender and Change in Central America</i>. Irma McClaurin

Women of Belize: Gender and Change in Central America.

Provides a vivid and evocative portrait of the dynamics of gender and the evolution of women's consciousness in this small but very complex multiethnic society. McClaurin's own voice throughout the book is eloquent and subtle, always attentive to both the private and the public implications of women's words.--Daphne Patai, author of Brazilian Women Speak: Contemporary Life Stories Insightful and inspiring.--O. Nigel Bolland, Colgate University has sensitively enabled three Belizean women to speak frankly about their difficult lives. [Her]self-awareness and interpretations deepen our understanding of these women and their environment.--Zee Edgell, author of Beka Lamb This engaging ethnography is set in the remote district of Toledo in Belize, Central America, where three women weave personal stories about the events in their lives. Each describes her experiences of motherhood, marriage, family illness, emigration, separation, work, or domestic violence that led her to recognize gender inequality and then do something about it. All three challenge the culture of gender at home and in the larger community. Zola, an East Indian woman without primary school education, invents her own escape from a life of subordination by securing land, then marries the man she's lived with since the age of fourteen--but on her own terms. Evelyn, a thirty-nine-year old Creole woman, has raised eight children virtually alone, yet she remains married of habit. A keen entrepreneur, she has run a restaurant, a store, and a sewing business, and she now owns a mini-mart attached to her home. Rose, a Garifuna woman, is a mother of two whose husband left when she would not accept his extra-marital affairs. While she ekes out a survival in the informal economy, she gets spiritual comfort from her religious beliefs, love of music, and two children. The voices of these ordinary Belizean women fill the pages of this book. Irma McClaurin reveals the historical circumstances, cultural beliefs, and institutional structures that have rendered women in Belize socially disenfranchised and economically dependent upon men. She shows how some ordinary women, through their participation in women's grassroots groups, have found the courage to change their lives. Drawing upon her own experiences as a black woman in the United States, and relying upon cross-cultural data about the Caribbean and Latin America, she explains the specific way gender is constructed in Belize. Irma McClaurin ia an assistant professor of anthropology at the University of Florida.

Women of Belize: Gender and Change in Central America:Women of Belize: Gender and Change in Central America.

Women of Belize: Gender and Change in Central America. Irma McClaurin. New Brunswick, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 1996.218 pp.

Women of Belize: gender and change in Central America

Women of Belize: gender and change in Central America

Democratic Transitions in Central America

Ten contributors, all active political figures, provide reflections and insights on the processes by which they helped bring about political and economic change in Central America.

Violence or Economics: What Drives Internal Migration in Guatemala?

Politically motivated violence has plagued Guatemala since 1966. The first wave of terror coincided with an antiguerilla offensive launched by the government in late 1966. 2 waves of terror began in 1969 and 1970. The 4th wave of terror began in 1978 with the highest level of political violence ever. 1524 individuals were killed by the guerrillas the military and death squads during the 1966-76 period but a recent study estimated that in 1986 100000-250000 individuals had moved within Guatemala to escape political violence. Another 150000-360000 had fled guatemala to live in other countries between 31. and 7.5% of the national population. The analytical core of Harris-Todaro-type model was modified to analyze the effect of violence on the migration decision. The most common dependent variable used in reduced-form migration equations was the probability of migrating from one location to another. Source and destination unemployment were entered into the migration equation from the 1981 census. Per capita government spending was entered into the migration equation to test whether governments contribution to aggregate demand was important in attracting migrants. The first measure of violence used in the regressions was the number of politically motivated killings carried out in a department from 1966-1976. The second violence measure was per capita corpses found of individuals who had been killed for some political end. Violence did have an impact on migration flows at least when measured by assassinations. The percentage difference between per capita assassinations in origin and destination areas was statistically significant. The sign and 5-statistic on the assassinations-squared variable suggested that higher levels of violence might cause the migration response to intensify but this variable was significant only at the 20% level. Both violence variables were statistically significant and increased origin violence did spur out-migration.