Identifying critical areas for conservation: Biodiversity and climate change in central America, Mexico, and the Dominican Republic

Abstract

Given the rapidity and intensity of anthropogenic impacts on natural systems, assessing the effectiveness of current protected areas in preserving biodiversity is especially important in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean, which contain a wide array of species and ecosystems. In light of the growing need to consider climate change in policymaking, combining climate change projections with biodiversity maps allows scientists and decision-makers to understand possible climate change impacts on biodiversity. In this study, we use GIS to identify spatial relationships between regional climate change models and species habitat ranges for Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. Evaluating possible effects of climate change in terms of temperature and precipitation involves three factors: historical averages, historical ranges, and future averages. Because different ecosystems and species exist at different temperature and precipitation ranges, we consider “comfort zones” of each area. We develop a quantitative, spatial measurement of climate change intensity of each area by calculating the difference between historical and future averages and dividing that difference by the area's comfort zone, at a spatial resolution of 1km2. The result is a normalized grid of projected climate change severity. According to the modeling results, should worst case scenario conditions prevail, by the 2020s, the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, and the Dominican Republic, will be significantly impacted by climate change. By the 2080s, all of the ecosystems and species of Central America and the Dominican Republic may be subjected to conditions well outside of their traditional comfort zone, while most of Mexico's ecosystems and species are at lower risk of severe climate change impacts. Integrating species richness data with the climate change severity analyses identifies critical areas that may require specific interventions to facilitate the adaptation of species to climate change. The information generated points not only to the utility of current protected areas, but is also useful in guiding the development of new protected areas and biological corridors, for the reduction of the potential impacts of future climate change.