Chances Of Victory Research Articles

Tactical Situations and Playing Styles as Key Performance Indicators in Soccer.

The game of soccer is complex and unpredictable, demanding multifaceted strategies for success. Performance analysis has evolved, focusing on key performance indicators (KPIs) to determine the factors that most significantly influence a team's success or failure during matches. Traditional performance analysis methods have emphasized quantifiable data like physical exertion and basic play events but often neglected the subtler tactical dimensions that could significantly impact game outcomes. This study aimed to fill the gap in the current literature by creating a comprehensive framework that incorporates tactical situations as KPIs. The objective was to examine whether specific playing styles adopted by teams in various tactical situations and phases of the game could predict the outcome of matches. A dataset comprising all First Division Championship matches from 11 different European countries for the 2021-2022 season was analyzed. Variables representing tactical situations were correlated with match outcomes using a Generalized Estimating Equation framework. The model was specified with a binomial distribution and a logit link function. Statistical significance was determined using Wald χ2 tests with a significance level set at p < 0.05. The study's findings revealed that possession style, counterattacking during offensive transitions, and a balanced aggressive defensive strategy significantly increase a team's chances of victory. It also showed that successful teams tend to focus on central attacks, minimize crossing, and execute strategic plays that lead to final attempts on goal with minimal ball possession. The above findings demonstrate that adopting certain tactical approaches significantly influences soccer match outcomes, highlighting the importance of considering tactical aspects as KPIs.

The electoral consequences of racial fluidity

Brazilian politicians have seemingly adopted new racial identities en masse in recent years. What are the electoral consequences of asserting membership in a new racial group? In the Brazilian case, politicians who change how they racially identify themselves and secure greater access to campaign resources may become more electorally competitive. If voters learn a politician has changed their self-declared race, however, the politician’s reputation is likely to be tarnished and their chances of victory are likely to decline. Building on evidence that voters acquire greater information about election front-runners in high-profile contests than other types of politicians, I expect incumbents running for executive offices who change how they publicly identify themselves to suffer an electoral penalty. Drawing on data from local elections in Brazil, I find limited evidence that voters penalize city council candidates who adopt new racial identities. I show that incumbent mayors seeking reelection, however, receive significantly fewer votes after they assert membership in new racial groups.

Корпоративный конфликт как фактор позитивного развития социально- экономических отношений

The article is based on the current practice of researching Russian economic, corporate management and judicial application jurisprudence and reveals the paradox of a positive study of corporate conflict on business development, its social resource and its intra-company regulatory base. The author shows that replicated practices of managing groups of corporate conflicts, highlighting obvious regulatory contradictions or alogisms corresponding to the algorithms, signaling the situation of the rule-making process and the expert community of the need to adjust the relevant rules; corporate conflicts in diversified holdings inevitably lead to random outcomes; a non-destructive option for resolving a corporate conflict allows you to increase the group from “smoldering manifestations” of character strengthening, which are corporate contradictions of co-owners or participants and top managers brought to a high degree of aggravation; shareholder antagonisms demonstrate a pronounced institutional energy and an applied demonstration of the usefulness of peacefulness and compromise in conducting polemics defending their mismatched, including diametrically opposed interests of the co-owners of the company; identified cases of occurrence of cases of cardiovascular disorders, initiated by a weak corporate-legal relationship for the management of a group or set of companies, resulting in their defeat, leading to the identification of positive adjustments in corporate behavior for the control of the party; counteracting corporate conflict among children contributes to the development of methodological and applied foundations for company risk management. An internal corporate conflict in the public mind is a spontaneous, but at the same time objectively justified method of protest, which does not cause chances of victory as such, but conditionally works as a stimulus for the creation of civil-democratic foundations of society.

When do natural disasters lead to negotiations in a civil war?

The effect of natural disasters on the end of civil wars has received little attention from scholars. We argue that the effect of disasters on conflict negotiation is dependent on which combatant is victimized by disaster. Drawing on a bargaining model, we argue that disasters create costs that alter the capabilities of the rebels and government. In order for these changes to lead to negotiations, the effects of a disaster have to lead to the mutual expectation that military victory is unlikely in the short term. When both sides are hit by a natural disaster, this mutual expectation is likely to form because both sides face significant costs to engaging in conflict in the short term. When one side is impacted, the non-affected side is likely to see an opportunity to gain against its rival while the side facing the devastation of a natural disaster may see only a temporary setback that it can recover from. This may lead both sides to not update their beliefs about the costs of war, or their chances of victory. We evaluate these hypotheses by examining all territorial civil wars from 1980 to 2005 using a more precise measure of disaster location. We find that when both sides are hit by a disaster, the likelihood of negotiation consistently increases. When only one side is impacted, the effect on negotiations is not consistent across model specifications.

Wasps choose their battles wisely

![Graphic][1] Deciding when to stand your ground and when to retreat can be a life-saving skill. One way to decide whether to pursue peace or combat is to know something about your rival and your own chances of victory. If you don't think you'll have the upper hand, it's better to conserve

The Results of 2019 Parliamentary Elections in the Perspective of 2018 Local Government Elections

The analysis of the results of the elections to regional parliaments of 2018 allows to take a closer look at the current political preferences of the electorate one year before the parliamentary elections. The distribution of support for political parties in individual provinces shows that Law and Justice (PiS) enjoys constant, high and stable support, which will most likely allow this party to extend mandate to rule the country for the next 4 years. The largest opposition party, the Civic Platform (PO), sees the chances of victory in uniting further opposition groups around itself. The common start with Nowoczesna under the name of the Citizens’ Coalition (KO) did not meet the expectations. However, the distribution of support in the local government elections showed that the actions consolidating the opposition are currently the only chance to fight a leveled electoral fight with Law and Justice (PiS).

When Favoritism Fails: The Politics of Cross-ethnic Voting among Muslims in India

In a political system characterized by strong loyalty to coethnic politicians and parties, why do some voters support a non-coethnic party? Scholars theorize that voters support coethnics in order to access patronage benefits. However, for some groups, particularly minorities, coethnics may never win power, forcing voters into a second-best choice. I examine the factors that shape that choice, and the choices that voters make. This paper shows that voters are more likely to support non-coethnic parties when such parties use direct outreach to overcome credibility concerns and when their chances of victory are high.

From “Leftist” To “President”: Journalism and Editorial Coverage of Brazil’s Lula in Five Elections

ABSTRACTThe article analyzes the image that O Estado de S. Paulo (one of the main Brazilian newspapers) constructed of the presidential candidate Lula da Silva over the course of five electoral campaigns: 1989, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Our hypothesis is that OESP editorials have an adversarial positioning towards Lula da Silva in all presidential races, despite slight variations brought on by the newspaper's perception of his chances of victory. The study uses a quanti-qualitative methodology supported by Iramuteq (lexicometric analysis) to examine 181 OESP editorials. We found out that OESP features Lula in different ways, adapting its position-taking over time: the characterization of the candidate ranges from “the leftist” (1989 elections) to “the president in permanent campaign” (2006 elections). Notwithstanding, OESP editorials are repeatedly willing to consider him as unsuitable for office. The longitudinal study highlights OESP's political positioning and allows us to discuss journalism and political interests in the Brazilian case.

Cheating in a contest with strategic inspection

We analyze a game between three players: two Athletes and an Inspector. Two athletes compete with each other and both may cheat to increase their chances of victory. The Inspector wishes to detect incidents of cheating, and performs tests on athletes to detect cheating. The test is costly for the Inspector. Both probability of cheating and that of testing decrease as cost of inspection diminishes.

Lieutenant Colonel Karl Dolezhal’s Views on the Future of Military Operations of the Galician Army in the Dnieper Ukraine in July 1919

In the study, the author analyzes the report of the Galician Army Lieutenant Colonel Karl Dolezhal to the military-political leadership of the WR of UPR, which was formulated on July 15, 1919. The report referred to the employment of the Galician Army after its abandoning the territories of Eastern Galicia when the Galician military forces in the Dnieper Ukraine had to fight with several opponents. The views of Karl Dolezhal clearly reflect the contemporary discussions between the Western Ukrainian political leadership and the military commanders on further armed struggle, in particular on the choice of the main military operation in the direction of Kyiv or Odessa. In his recommendations, Karl Dolezhal, as well as a significant part of the authors of the memoirs on the events of that time, was a supporter of a military campaign in the direction of Odessa. In his opinion, the deployment in the Northern Black Sea region would allow the army to recover, as winter in Kyiv region was much more severe. Also, in the views of the then politicians and military officers of the UPR, access to the Black Sea ports made it possible to replenish military supplies, in particular with the help of the Entente.However, in his recommendations, Karl Dolezhal did not take into account a number of important factors that influenced the Galician Army after the Zbruch transition, in particular the inevitable war with the Volunteer Army. The concentration of the main striking power in the Odessa direction would not have been as easy as the colonel had imagined. First of all, because Denikin was the first to seize the Northern Black Sea. The very chances of victory in the war against the Army of General Anton Denikin were small due to his support by the Entente. Thus, the White Guards had better material security and were much more numerous than the Ukrainian Armed Forces.In today’s armed confrontation with Russia, one should take into account the lesson given by this short episode of the First Ukrainian liberation movements of 1917–1921: when assessing the situation, one should consider all its possible components in the most unfavorable combination even if intuitively they would rather be avoided.

Projecting Confidence: How the Probabilistic Horse Race Confuses and Demobilizes the Public

Recent years have seen a dramatic change in horserace coverage of elections in the U.S.—shifting focus from late-breaking poll numbers to sophisticated meta-analytic forecasts that emphasize candidates’ chance of victory. Could this shift in the political information environment affect election outcomes? We use experiments to show that forecasting increases certainty about an election’s outcome, confuses many, and decreases turnout. Furthermore, we show that election forecasting has become promi- nent in the media, particularly in outlets with liberal audiences, and show that such coverage tends to more strongly affect the candidate who is ahead—raising questions about whether they contributed to Trump’s victory over Clinton in 2016. We bring empirical evidence to this question, using ANES data to show that Democrats and Independents expressed unusual confidence in a decisive 2016 election outcome—and that the same measure of confidence is associated with lower reported turnout.

Karolina Prasad, Identity Politics And Elections In Malaysia And Indonesia: Ethnic Engineering In Borneo. Abingdon: Routledge, 2016. 215pp. Isbn: 978-1-138-85473-4 (Hbk)

Karolina Prasad’s book is a welcoming addition to the literature on ethnic politics in Malaysia and Indonesia, particularly in Sarawak (Malaysia) and West Kalimantan (Indonesia). To the reviewer’s knowledge, this is a first scholarly work that compares extensively the ethnic politics in Sarawak and West Kalimantan, two states on Borneo with the same ethnic composition but under different regimes and electoral institutions. Malaysia is a consociational polity where power is shared through the bargains among the elites of various ethnic categories. Malaysia also adopts a first-past-the-post electoral system with single-mandate constituencies. While legislators at the national and state levels in Malaysia are directly elected, executive heads at the national, regional and local levels are indirectly elected. Indonesia, on the other hand, is a centripetal polity that does not include elite bargains but instead let the voters decide the ethnic composition of the legislative and executive. Indonesia also adopts a proportional representation electoral system with multi-mandate constituencies. Legislators at the national, provincial and local levels are directly elected. Moreover, presidents and vice-presidents are directly elected since 2004, and executive heads at the regional and local levels are directly elected since 2005. While West Kalimantan has encountered several inter-ethnic conflicts, including the deadly violence of 1999, 2000 and 2001 between Dayaks and Madurese as well as between Malays and Madurese, Sarawak has remained peaceful since it became part of the Federation of Malaysia in 1963. This study aims to find out under different political settings in divided societies, how political entrepreneurs use ethnic identities as tools to expand their support base or to maximise their chances of victory in elections. In other words, this book is about how politics influence ethnic identities in societies where ethnic identities are activated in politics.

National Leaders, Political Security, and the Formation of Military Coalitions

States frequently form military coalitions, and these collaborations matter a great deal for international politics, yet their origins are poorly understood. Building coalitions in international crises improves military prospects. At the same time, it requires policy concessions to compensate partners. We show that a national leader’s job security affects her willingness to make this tradeoff. First, politically insecure leaders are more willing to form coalitions than secure leaders. The former face greater incentives to accept tradeoffs in order to bolster their chances of victory and thereby improve their chances of remaining in power. Second, politically insecure leaders are also less selective in their choice of partners. Their willingness to make larger policy concessions leads them to form coalitions with states of increasingly divergent foreign policy preferences. A sample of crises from 1951-1999 provides statistical support for these arguments.

A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts

We compare Oscar forecasts derived from four data types (fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and domain experts) across three attributes (accuracy, timeliness and cost effectiveness). Fundamentals-based forecasts are relatively expensive to construct, an attribute the academic literature frequently ignores, and update slowly over time, constraining their accuracy. However, fundamentals provide valuable insights into the relationship between key indicators for nominated movies and their chances of victory. For instance, we find that the performance in other awards shows is highly predictive of the Oscar victory whereas box office results are not. Polling- based forecasts have the potential to be both accurate and timely. Timeliness requires incentives for frequent responses by high-information users. Accuracy is achieved by a proper transformation of raw polls. Prediction market prices are accurate forecasts, but can be further improved by simple transformations of raw prices, yielding the most accurate forecasts in our study. Expert forecasts exhibit some characteristics of fundamental models, but are generally not comparatively accurate or timely. This study is unique in both comparing and aggregating four traditional data sources, and considering critical attributes beyond accuracy. We believe that the results of this study generalize to many other domains.

Direktkandidaten und die Wahlerfolge ihrer Partei im deutschen Zweistimmensystem. Das Beispiel der Bundestagswahl 2013 in Stuttgart

District candidates in the German mixed electoral systems, if positively evaluated by the electorate help a party to win the district mandate and they may increase the local party (second) votes. But party evaluations are also important for both purposes. As an exit-poll for the two Stuttgart constituencies in 2013 shows, parties are on average better evaluated than candidates, if the latter get evaluated at all. If both get rated, evaluations of most voters agree concerning parties and their candidates and the candidate of the best rated party gets the first vote und the best party the second vote (consonance voters). If the ratings diverge, the two votes tend to diverge also (divergence voters) and candidate ratings become decisive for voting in the electoral plurality segment. In addition, the chances of victory also play a role which voters in the aggregate perceive quite clearly. Ratings discounted by the probability of winning get important. When SPD and Greens recommended to choose the Green candidate in one and the SPD candidate in the other Stuttgart constituency due to their respective higher chances of victory, this party strategy failed nevertheless. Some addressees would have been forced to choose a candidate whom they rated worse than the one of their own party. And we guess that a party degrades itself if it admits that it is not an object of consonance voting.

Did David Bring a Gun to a Knife Fight? Literary and Historical Considerations in Interpreting David’s Victory over Goliath

Though the story of David and Goliath is unmatched in its iconic status, it is capable of being interpreted as either a story of David’s faith or a story of David’s cunning. These various portraits of David largely hinge on how the reader understands David’s sling. Is it a shepherd’s weapon that would be useless against the armored giant? Or is it a deadly long range weapon, the equivalent of bringing a gun to a knife fight? This essay examines the literary and historical considerations in interpreting this aspect of the biblical story and suggests that while David may have cunningly chosen a weapon that gave him an outside chance of victory, it is by no means a weapon that gave him an advantage, and so his faith in Yhwh must be considered the deciding factor.

Economies of Scope between Military and Bureaucracy and the Constitution and Composition of the Modern State and Its Conduct in Relation to War and Peace

The type of the mainstay of the military forces of a state decides the decree of economies of scope that exist among the military, the internal security establishment and, the fiscal apparatus which taxes and provides public goods. Economies of scope reduce the cost of military pursuit and other state functions. State that has greater economies of scope among its different functions is more able to financially survive the rising costs of a growing need for military capacity. The size of the internal security establishment and fiscal apparatus is affected by the extensiveness of the economies of scope that they have with the military. With economies of scope between military capacity and public goods provision, a growing need for military capacity results in an increased level of public goods provision and a higher tax rate. The share of state expenditures in the national income rises as a result, which is the well-known Wagner’s Law. An increase in the economies of scope between military capacity and public goods provision causes a declining share of military in the state budget and the economy. Autocracies have larger internal security establishment than democracies. The marginal cost of waging war is therefore lower for autocracies, given the economies of scope between internal security and external defense. Autocracies are therefore more warlike than democracies. With a higher marginal cost of waging war, democracies will engage in military conflicts only if the expected gross returns are higher. Democracies therefore only wage wars that have a good chance of victory.

How the Whites Blew Their Chances

By investigating various aspects of the anti-Bolshevik struggle in Russia’s south-western borderland, this article examines the chances for victory of the Whites in the Russian Civil War. The article maintains that the Whites rapidly transformed from a patriotic movement into an ultra-nationalist force that did not tolerate any deviation from their dogmas. In the pursuit of a great, one and indivisible Russia, White leadership, especially General Denikin, antagonized all potential allies – from the anti-Bolshevik political elite, through the Cossacks and the Ukrainians, to the French forces intervening in the South. A centralized government that Denikin created, one obsessed with the desire to control everything within its reach, further aggravated this situation. The article’s underlying thesis is that the defeat of the Whites was – so-to-speak – a self-inflicted blow and that had they pursued a policy of including rather than excluding potential partners, their chances for victory would have been much greater.

Home Away From Home: Dynamics of Counterinsurgency Warfare

The aim of this article is to obtain a better understanding of the outcomes of counterinsurgency warfare. It advances the hypothesis that the combined presence of a unified revolutionary force and external sanctuary will significantly increase the chances of victory for insurgents. The variables are tested against Portugal's involvement in the Colonial War, accounting for Portuguese defeat in Guinea-Bissau. The article concludes by extending the hypothesis to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, determining that the ability of the United States to succeed in Afghanistan is limited unless it seals the border with Pakistan and weakens the unity of insurgent forces.

AGENCY, PERCEPTION AND THE ECONOMICS OF INTERNAL WARS

Economic approaches to armed conflict have largely explained rational choice among rebel groups through quantitative analyses that focus on structural variables and ignore agency. This paper is an empirical analysis of decision-making among rebel groups in civil wars focusing on variables that actors influence. The hypothesis was that rebels calculated their expected gains and opportunity costs when deciding to engage in a civil war and that the rebels and government manipulated these expectations intentionally through actions or unintentionally through perception. In two case studies, the governments' actions to increase the opportunity cost and input cost of rebellion, the rebels' actions to lower their input costs and increase their chances of victory, and the rebels' perceptions regarding their probability of victory all influenced decisions. The evidence supported the hypothesis that rebellion is a rational choice and demonstrated that agency and perceptions were more important than structural factors to the decisions.