Chance Score Research Articles

Characterization and diagnosis spectrum of patients with cerebrospinal fluid pleocytosis

PurposeThere is an overlap in the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) characteristics of patients presenting with different etiologies of CSF pleocytosis. Here, we characterized patients with CSF pleocytosis treated in a large hospital.MethodsA retrospective cohort study of 1150 patients with an elevated CSF leukocyte count > 5 cells/µl treated at a university hospital in Germany from January 2015 to December 2017 was performed. Information on clinical presentation, laboratory parameters, diagnosis and outcome was collected. Clinical and laboratory features were tested for their potential to differentiate between bacterial meningitis (BM) and other causes of CSF pleocytosis.ResultsThe most common etiologies of CSF pleocytosis were CNS infections (34%: 20% with detected pathogen, 14% without), autoimmune (21%) and neoplastic diseases (16%). CSF cell count was higher in CNS infections with detected pathogen (median 82 cells/µl) compared to autoimmune (11 cells/µl, p = 0.001), neoplastic diseases (19 cells/µl, p = 0.01) and other causes (11 cells/µl, p < 0.001). The CHANCE score was developed to differentiate BM from other causes of CSF pleocytosis: Multivariate regression revealed that CSF cell count > 100 cells/µl, CSF protein > 100 mg/dl, CRP > 5 mg/dl, elevated white blood cell count, abnormal mental status and nuchal rigidity are important indicators. The CHANCE score identified patients with BM with high sensitivity (92.1%) and specificity (90.9%) (derivation cohort: AUC: 0.955, validation cohort: AUC: 0.956).ConclusionOverall, the most common causes for CSF pleocytosis include infectious, neoplastic or autoimmune CNS diseases in ~ 70% of patients. The CHANCE score could be of help to identify patients with high likelihood of BM and support clinical decision making.

Scoring Single-Response Multiple-Choice Items - Quite Simple?! A Scoping Review and Comparison of Different Scoring Methods.

Single-choice items (eg, best-answer items, alternate-choice items, single true-false items) are one type of multiple-choice items and have been used in examinations for over 100 years. At the end of every examination, the examinees' responses have to be analyzed and scored in order to derive with an information about examinees' true knowledge. The aim of this paper is to compile scoring methods for individual single-choice items described in the literature. Furthermore, the metric expected chance score and the relation between examinees' true knowledge and expected scoring results (averaged percentage score) are analyzed. Furthermore, implications for potential pass marks to be used in examinations to test examinees for a predefined level of true knowledge are derived. Scoring methods for individual single-choice items including were extracted from various databases (ERIC, PsycInfo, Embase via Ovid, MEDLINE via PubMed) in September 2020. Eligible sources reported on scoring methods for individual single-choice items in written examinations including but not limited to medical education. Separately for items with n = 2 answer options (eg, alternate-choice items, single true-false items) and best-answer items with n = 5 answer options (eg, Type A items) and for each identified scoring method, the metric expected chance score and the expected scoring results as a function of examinees' true knowledge using fictitious examinations with 100 single-choice items were calculated. A total of 21 different scoring methods were identified from the 258 included sources, with varying consideration of correctly marked, omitted, and incorrectly marked items. Resulting credit varied between -3 and +1 credit points per item. For items with n = 2 answer options, expected chance scores from random guessing ranged between -1 and +0.75 credit points. For items with n = 5 answer options, expected chance scores ranged between -2.2 and +0.84 credit points. All scoring methods showed a linear relation between examinees' true knowledge and the expected scoring results. Depending on the scoring method used, examination results differed considerably: Expected scoring results from examinees with 50% true knowledge ranged between 0.0% (95% CI: 0% to 0%) and 87.5% (95% CI: 81.0% to 94.0%) for items with n = 2 and between -60.0% (95% CI: -60% to -60%) and 92.0% (95% CI: 86.7% to 97.3%) for items with n = 5. In examinations with single-choice items, the scoring result is not always equivalent to examinees' true knowledge. When interpreting examination scores and setting pass marks, the number of answer options per item must usually be taken into account in addition to the scoring method used.

Luck perception is associated with less frequent preventive practices and a higher number of social contacts among adults during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

ObjectivesNon-pharmaceutical interventions have been crucial to reduce transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in many countries including the United Kingdom. A key research priority has been to better understand psychological and social determinants of health behaviours. We aimed to quantify the impact of luck perception on contact and preventive behaviours among adults in the UK, adjusting for key confounders. Study designA cross-sectional study. MethodsData were collected between July 28 and August 31, 2020. Luck perception, which refers to a belief whether individual's SARS-CoV-2 infection status is determined by fate or chance, was measured using Chance score, drawing on Health Locus of Control Theory. Self-reporting online questionnaires were administered to obtain participants' contact patterns and frequencies of avoiding crowds, hand washing and wearing a mask. Associations between luck perception and protective behaviours and contact patterns were quantified using regression models. ResultsData from 233 survey respondents were analysed. Chance score was negatively associated with all protective behaviours; avoiding crowds (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.25–0.86, p = 0.02), washing hands (aOR 0.35, 95%CI 0.17–0.70, p = 0.003), and wearing masks (aOR 0.58, 95%CI 0.34–0.99, p = 0.046). For non-physical contacts (with or without distancing), a significant interaction was identified between Chance score and ethnicity. Chance score increased the number of non-physical contacts among white British, an opposite trend was observed for non-white participants. ConclusionsLuck perception during the pandemic may affect individuals’ health protection behaviours and contact patterns. Further mechanistic understandings of human behaviours against infectious diseases are indispensable for effective response to future pandemics.

Empowerment key factors in shaping women's awareness of household waste management

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Empowering activities is the key in building awareness and individual capacity of household waste management, especially for women as the main actors. This study aimed to explore empowering activities as the key factor in shaping women's awareness of household waste management.METHODS:This study was conducted using quantitative methods. The data collection technique used was survey. The sampling was carried out by purposive sampling technique. The criteria for sampling were those women who attended training in waste management in Jagakarsa Sub District, South Jakarta, Indonesia. The analytical technique used was Ordinary Least Square regression.FINDINGS: Based on the findings of this study, it was known that women who had good adaptability to technology were likely to have a greater chance score of 0.908. Education in schools was also found to have a positive impact on the opportunity score to earn good living environment. It was found that an increase in 1 year of schooling will increase the score of chance by 0.0755 (estimation 5). This is not significantly different from estimation 4 which would increase the chance by 0.0745. In waste management training, The womens’ participation are likely to increase the score chance of having a good environment by 0.944 points (estimation 5). Besides, the womens’ participation were found to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level in all estimations, particularly in the waste management training. Based on the comparison of the participation coefficient parameters in waste management training, it was found that there were no significant differences or signs (+ and -) between the estimations. All coefficient parameters ranged from 0.83 to 0.94.CONCLUSION: Empowerment activities that utilize access to education and easily adapt to a technology might have a significant correlation with women's involvement in waste management training. This is the basis for building awareness to carry out more sustainable household waste management and achieve change to get a good living environment.

Working alliance with an avatar: How far can we go with internet interventions?

ObjectiveTo examine the working alliance between users and an avatar and users' treatment expectations in an unguided Internet intervention for the treatment of insomnia. MethodsThe sample included participants from the treatment condition (N = 29) of a randomised controlled trial. The task and goal subscales of the Working Alliance Inventory Short Revised (WAI-SR) were applied in week three. Five items of the Bern Post-Session Report and one question about the extent to which users had missed a human therapist were administered after each session. Treatment expectations were measured with the Credibility Expectancy Questionnaire (CEQ), and the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) was used as the primary outcome measure. ResultsThe mean scores for the WAI-SR task and goal subscales were relatively high (M = 3.24, SD = 0.79; M = 3.16, SD = 0.91, respectively). The mean score of the five Bern Post-Session Report items remained stable over time, but some users increasingly indicated that they missed a real therapist over the course of the intervention, with a strong linear effect (t(87) = 3.16, p < 0.01). ISI chance score was predicted by the mean score of the Bern Post-Session Report (b = −0.3.83, t(21.80) = −2.97, p < 0.01), missing a human therapist (b = −0.0.13, t(20.47) = −2.72, p = 0.01) and the CEQ (b = 0.18, t(19.03) = −2.69, p = 0.01), but not by WAI-SR task and goal subscales. ConclusionsResults indicate that users established a working alliance with the avatar. The affective bond remained stable over time, but towards the end of the intervention some users indicated that they missed having a human therapist. Affective bond and missing a real therapist predicted symptom change.

Validation and Modification of the Masood Scoring Index for the Diagnosis of Atypical Breast Lesions

Introduction: Cytological diagnosis of borderline breast lesions remains challenging, and interobserver variability exists in their interpretation. The Masood scoring index (MSI) has been proposed to help in the subgrouping of breast lesions using objective criteria. Aim: The aim of the present study was to assess the interobserver variability in the scoring of breast lesions according to MSI and to see the utility of a modified scheme for discriminating benign and atypical lesions. Study Design: Papanicolaou-stained smears (100 cases) that underwent fine needle aspiration for a palpable breast lump were independently evaluated by 2 observers, and the cases were categorized as per MSI. Percent agreement beyond chance score between both observers was calculated. Sensitivity analysis was performed by comparing the scores using models containing different parameters of MSI. Results: The agreement amongst the 2 observers for scores was found to be 0.88 and it was 69% for category-wise diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model with only 3 cytological parameters (cell arrangement, pleomorphism, and nucleoli) had similar discrimination ability in the classification of breast disease as benign or atypical as the standard MSI model. Conclusion: Further simplified models of MSI should be tested for improved diagnostic accuracy and wider acceptability.

Predicting Rights-Only Score Distributions from Data Collected Under Formula Score Instructions.

Under a formula score instruction (FSI), test takers omit items. If students are encouraged to answer every item (under a rights-only scoring instruction, ROI), the score distribution will be different. In this paper, we formulate a simple statistical model to predict the score ROI distribution using the FSI data. Estimation error is also provided. In addition, a preliminary investigation of the probability of guessing correctly on omitted items and its sensitivity is presented in the paper. Based on the data used in this paper, the probability of guessing correctly may be close or slightly greater than the chance score.

A Demonstration of Measurement Error and Reliability

The related concepts of reliability and measurement error are often difficult for students to understand. This article describes a simple and inexpensive demonstration of several underlying notions necessary to understanding these concepts: chance score, true score, error variance, true score variance, and their relation to each other and to reliability.

The Validity of Astrological Statements

Astrological reports contain statements about dispositions and behaviours of the individuals under consideration. Because astrologers base their reports on variables such as time and place of birth and not on personal observation or testing of their clients, one might regard these statements as predictions. The validity of such reports may be evaluated retroactively after the subjects have died, or longitudinally, or by comparing their content with information provided by secondary sources. W e took the latter approach in our investigation. W e obtained 30 astrological reports for 30 different individuals. W e found that these reports contained 293 testable statements which were subsequently scored. If a subject possessed a particular characteristic according to the astrologer, this was scored as plus (+); if the astrological report did not include the characteristic, it was scored minus ( ) . Further, we solicited evaluations from psychologists who knew the respective subjects well and had been in a position to evaluate them extensively. W e found that in 187 cases the astrologer and the psychologist agreed that the subject possessed a particular characteristic; in 66 cases the astrologer ascribed a characteristic but the psychologist did not; in 19 cases they agreed that the subject did not have the characteristic; in 10 cases the psychologist ascribed one whereas the astrologer did not. In 11 cases identified by the astrologer the psychologist did not make a pronouncement. Disregarding the latter 11 instances, we noted that the astrologer and the psychologist agreed on 206 cases and disagreed on 76. This 73% agreement level was significant = 17.41, p < .001), indicating that there is great similarity between astrological and psychological statements concerning particular persons. W e approached the analysis from a different angle by assuming that there always will be chance similarities between statements originating from these two sources. W e determined the chance score by comparing the astrological report for each individual, not with its corresponding psychological report but with that of a randomly chosen fellow subject of the same sex. W e found there was agreement with respect to 140 of the 282 (293 11) statements; agreement of 50% as compared to the original 73%. A binomial test for large samples with correction for continuity gave a z of 7.7 (P < .001). The findings suggest thac those who value psychodiagnosis must also value astrological reports. It should be noted, however, that the design favoured the astrologer because we limited the investigation to statements which originated from the astrological reports. In other words, we conformed ourselves to the frame of reference of the astrologer. Moreover, we should not disregard the possibility thac an astrologer speaks in such general terms that the report almost always will apply ro someone. On the other hand, the same statement could be made of many psychological reports.

UNINTERPRETABLE SCORES: THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR TESTING PRACTICE

Chance-level scores have long been problematic in the interpretation of multiple choice tests. Fry (1971) referred to them as Orangoutang Scores, suggesting that many scores on tests could be achieved by a lucky orangoutang. stated his opinion strongly: He who uses or puts into cumulative folders test scores at or below (chance level) should be certified to teach, test, and provide guidance services only to Orangoutangs. Fry also noted that test publishers sometimes report grade-level equivalents for chance-level scores without giving any interpretive assistance to the user. It is in fact rare that users of scores are confronted with a specific reminder that the score which is being reported to them is, in fact, not significantly different from a mean chance score. The possible randomness' of the responses is, for all intents and purposes, not considered.

The Relative Difficulty Ratio—a Test and Item Index

The Relative Difficulty Ratio (RDR) was developed as an index of test or item difficulty for use in situations in which raw score means or item p-values are not directly comparable because of chance score differences. Computational RDR are described. Data from the literature are used to illustrate applications of the RDR at both the test and item level.

Predicting lethal outcome after severe head injury -- a computer-assisted analysis of neurological symptoms and laboratory values.

A total number of 58 parameters (laboratory values, neurological symptoms, and vegetative parameters) were evaluated in 150 patients during the first seven days after severe head injury. The patients were divided into two groups, "survivors" and "non-survivors". Eight easily evaluable routine parameters with the most significant differences between the two groups of patients were used for statistical evaluation of a "no survival chance score". These highly indicative parameters are serum osmolarity and urea, blood glucose, total bilirubin, motor reaction to stimuli, body temperature, respiratory activity, and pupil reaction. A "low survival chance limit" was evaluated from each of these parameters by computer analysis. None of the patients in the series survived when three or more of these eight parameters had climbed beyond the limit. So far, the system is able to predict "no survival chances" in 50.8% of the non-survivors some six days prior to death; 80% of these predictions could be made by the fourth day after injury.

Using Four Chance Profiles to Evaluate Carelessness

By comparing the similarity of a subject's scores with individualized chance scores, a test can be validly evaluated for carelessness. A fixed individualized chance score on any scale for a subject can be estimated with the subject's total percentage of true responses. A sum of D2/100 is then determined between the actual and chance scores. The method is regarded as generally applicable to tests which have many scales. Using the Social Experience Questionnaire 100% of random tests and 3.7% of actual tests for normals ( N = 54), alcoholics ( N = 53), and opiate addicts ( N = 28) had cutting scores of 40 or less.

Easier Test Improves Prediction of Black Students' College Grades

Recently some predominantly Negro colleges have begun to require that all of their applicants for admission submit scores on a nationally administered test such as the College Entrance Examination Board Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) or the battery of the American College Testing Program. The frequency distributions of test scores in these institutions are often markedly skewed positively and have smaller standard deviations than are typically found in white colleges. For example, on the SAT, while the mean Verbal score for all public-highschool seniors would be in the neighborhood of 390,1 the mean SAT-V score for entrants to a representative predominantly Negro college in a Southern state in the fall of 1966 was 277. (A chance score would be in the neighborhood of 220230). The standard deviation for all public-high-school sen.iors would probably be much greater than 100, but for entrants to this college the standard deviation of SAT-V was 50.

PREDICTING GRADES FROM BELOW CHANCE TEST SCORES

As college-admissions pressures increase, some institutions will turn toward selectivity in admission as an alternate to expansion. For some colleges, selectivity will be a new procedure. At first, very few students will be turned away, and these will be of the lowest academic potential. In fact, they may very well be students who have scored so low on admissions tests that theoretically their scores could have been obtained by marking the answer sheets at random. Some students with such low scores may be admitted while others are turned away. This suggests that the choice among such students is based on chance-level scores, but scores below the expected chance score may be thought of as implying no measurable aptitude. In fact, some writers (Gulliksen, 1950, p. 263) state that a score that is even within one or two standard deviations of the expected chance score should not be interpreted as signifying any knowledge of the subject matter of the examination. This study is an attempt to determine whether the use of chance-level scores can be expected to give different results in prediction of grades than the use of above-chance test scores, i.e., whether it is sound to use chance-level scores in an academic-prediction regression equation. PREVIOUS STUDIES

Reply to Clemens S. Bernhardson, "Determination of the chance score on the three-decision multiple-choice test".

Reply to Clemens S. Bernhardson, "Determination of the chance score on the three-decision multiple-choice test".

Determination of the chance score on the three-decision multiple-choice test.

The chance score on the Three-decision Multiple-choice Test was determined theoretically. The theoretical predictions were then tested empirically by using a table of random numbers to answer 100 sets of 20 multiple-choice questions like a three-decision multiple-choice test would be answered. The results indicated that the average chance score on the Three-decision Multiple-choice Test is over two times as large as the average chance score on the traditional five-alternative multiple-choice test.

Assumption of the equal probability of chance success

The “multiple-choice” form of test, in which answer alternatives are given, has frequently met with the objection that an examinee who does not know the correct answer to the item can make a substantial score by chance success. Several methods have been proposed to correct the effect of chance success on items and test statistics. These methods are all based on certain assumptions concerning chance success, which were as follows:(1) An examinee who is ignorant of the correct answer to the item will fail in the free answer form of test, and he will choose the answer at random from the alternatives in the multiple-choice form.(2) All alternatives in an item have the equal probability of chance success, that is, the probability is the reciprocal of the number of alternatives.This study aims at investigating the validity of the above assumptions.Methods: Two parallel mathematical tests consisting of 12 items were prepared, one of which was the “control test” (free answer form), and the other was the “experimental test” of five different forms the 2-alternative form (Form A), the 3-alternative form (Form B), the 4-alternative form (Form C), the 5-alternative form (Form D), and the free answer form (Form E), These tests were given to 3rd grade pupils (N=2, 100) of some secondary schools during October and November, 1964. Ss were divided into two groups:Group 1: A control test was given in the usual way, but the experimental test was given without showing the problems and the examinees were asked to make a pure guesswork on the answer sheets.Group 2: A control and experimental tests were given in the usual way.Results: In the pure guesswork of Group 1, the percentage of response was different among alternatives and the mean score was significantly different from the chance score, contrary to the assumption of the equal probability of choice (Tables 1 and 6-7).The results of Group 2, on the other hand, did not contradict the assumption of chance success. Score obtained were compared with the estimated scores which consisted of the true score and the chance score, and good agreement was obtained. All this is probably due to the fact that the proportion of the chance score in the observed score was so small as to make the difference between the observed score and the estimated score negligible.

関係把握におけるSpence理論の検討

Some experiments of transposition of size discrimination learning in human infants and rats were made to test whether the results were in accord with Spence's theory.In Exp. I, subjects were divided into two groups. Group I was, trained to the larger one of the two stimuli and Grgup II was trained to the smaller. Transposition tests were made in the positive direction, in the negative direction, and in the stimulus pairs which were made by combining the two stimuli which were located on both sides of the training stimuli.The results were compared with the conclusion deduced from Spence's theoretical generalization curves.1) In the group trained to the larger, both infants and rats showed high percentage of relative responses in every transposition test. From Spence's theory it was deduced that some absolute responses should be made in the tests of the positive direction. So the results did not strictly accord with this inference.2) In the group trained to the smaller both infants and rats showed very low percentage of relative responses in the tests of the positive direction. This accorded with the results of Spence's experiments in chimpanzees And with the inference from his theory. But, in the tests of stimulus pairs made by combining the two stimuli which were located on both sides of the training stimuli, infants showed chance score. Spence's theory is unable to account for this result.3) Since in infants, the low percentage of the relative responses is due to the increase of absolute responses, the consideration of these two types of responses will be sufficient. In animals, on the other hand, the position habit, which is a different type of response from the above two, should be taken into consideration. Spence's theory only predicts the low percentage of relative responses in general, hence it can not explain the difference of response-types depending upon the individual subject or species. In Exp. II, the proportion of areas of stimuli was increased and whether, in rats, the absolute response was made or not was examined.4) when subjects were trained to the larger of the stimuli they skowed very high percentage of relative responses. But, when they were trained to the smaller, most of all the animals showed the position habit. That is, in the transposition of size discrimination learning at least, rats do not make the absolute response, while the fact that infants make absolute response in such a situation is well known. Spence's theory can not explain the difference between these two species.It should be concluded that Spence's theory can not explain strictly the transposition behavior of infants and rats as dealt with in the present study. However, whether this is due to the intrinsic defect in his theory or can be settled by partial correction, is at issue in the present learning theory so that the writer would not attempt to draw any definite conclusion. As there are so many factors which affect the characteristics of his theoretical curves and which he did not consider, it is no wonder that Spence's theory is not applicable to any particular situation

THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF CHANCE‐LEVEL SCORES1

ABSTRACTFor the purposes of this study chance‐level scores were defined as those at or below the average performance expected of students who respond to each item at random.Data were scores on four regular subtests and the subtests of the equating form of the Cooperative School and Ability Tests. The score distribution of each of the SCAT subtests was divided into chance‐level and non‐chance‐level groups. The linear regression line of equating‐form scores on SCAT scores was fitted for each of the eight groups. The regression coefficients were tested for significant deviation from zero. Comparisons were also made of the regression coefficients and standard errors of estimate of the chance‐level and non‐chance‐level groups.Results indicated that scores at or below the average chance score will, under certain conditions, predict performance on an independent measure.