Chance Occurrence Research Articles

Evolution, Through the Lens of a Physicist

With the following considerations, the author intends to enrich the discussion about chance and the formation of new organisms in biological evolution. As a physicist, he knows that he has already crossed a boundary of disciplines by discussing the occurrence of chance. The natural scientist or biologist leaves the field of natural science to enter the world of ideas, humanities, and metaphysics. A second argument considers the relation between the whole and its parts. Decomposing biological systems to the smallest building blocks (molecules and atoms) does not mean the whole can be constructed from these particles without additional causal agents. This may indicate that the evolutionary process may involve more than changes in a DNA string.

Covid-19 Review: A Trend Analysis of the Impact of Religious Festivities and Non-Adherence to Social Distancing in Nigeria

The global negative impact of Covid-19 pandemic necessitates curtailing measures and policies in case of future outbreak. A trend analysis of the spread of Covid-19 showing the effect of social gatherings especially during religious festivals was done. Covid-19 monthly spread and associated weather data from Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) for the period of March 2020 to April 2022 was used to study the spread trend during religious festivities. The trend analysis revealed a significant spread increase for four of the geopolitical zones at r = 0.023, 0.000, 0.000, 0.000 respectively during religious festivals. A consistent increase in the spread of the disease during religious festivals across the six zones and a downward trend immediately after the festivities. A t test value of -29.027 was significant at p-value of 0.000 confirming that the change in spread trend during festivals was not a chance occurrence

Validity, Verifiability, and Confirmability: A Critique of Multiphase Packed Bed Modeling

The pseudocontinuum models of reactions in packed beds are complicated, and an assessment of the reliability of the predictability of their numerical solution is difficult. The predictability reliability depends on validity and verifiability, whereas the numerical solutions of models of reactions in packed beds cannot be validated or verified. Scientific acceptability cannot commence by metaphysics alone, and the truth of the speculative justifications of the results of the numerical models without robust empirical confirmation is a matter of chance occurrence. Adherence to the principles of noncontradiction and mathematical consistency seems to be the minimal criterion if a pseudocontinuum model is to demonstrate a degree of reliability in prediction, simulation, and design. This article is an exposition of the verifiability, validity, and confirmability characteristics of multiphase multidimensional models of reactions in packed beds. It addresses the difficulties of validation and the complexities of construction of models of reactions in packed beds by modeling kinetic data directly to show that often the claims of validity, verifiability, or confirmability of the results of multidimensional or even one-dimensional models of chemical reactions in packed beds, in spite of robust statistical tools, should be viewed with some degree of skepticism.

The Phenomenon of COVID-19 Conspiracy Theory Narratives through Virtual Ethnography on Instagram

This study aims to investigate the conspiracy phenomenon of the COVID-19 pandemic as disseminated by the Instagram account @unexplnd. This account boasts 842 thousand followers and stands as one of the largest social media propagating the concept of COVID-19 conspiracy theories in Indonesia. Primary data is derived from posts on this account, and secondary data is obtained through interviews with four followers who actively engage in commenting and harbor beliefs in the existence of conspiracies. The research corpus is subsequently scrutinized employing the conceptual framework delineated by Douglas, Sutton, and Cichocka (2017), which delineates the emergence of conspiracies through epistemic, existential, and social motives. The findings of this investigation reveal that incidents perceived as random chance occurrences, motivated by the desire to preserve comfort and freedom, along with suspicion or resentment towards particular entities, serve as grounds for endorsing COVID-19 pandemic conspiracy theories. Furthermore, exposure to media presenting conspiracy theories, such as the Instagram account @unexplnd, contributes to an augmented belief in such theories among proponents. Conspiracy theorists desire to raise awareness among the general populace regarding conspiracy theories by disseminating information containing conspiracy narratives across various media channels.

A Type Ia Supernova near a Globular Cluster in the Early-type Galaxy NGC 5353

No progenitor of a Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) is known, but in old-population early-type galaxies, one may find SNe Ia associated with globular clusters, yielding a population age and metallicity. It also provides insight into the formation path and the SN enhancement rate in globular clusters. We sought to find such associations and identified SN 2019ein to be within the ground-based optical positional uncertainty of a globular cluster candidate within the early-type galaxy NGC 5353 at D ≈ 30 Mpc. We reduced the positional uncertainties by obtaining Hubble Space Telescope images with the Advanced Camera for Surveys, using filters F475W and F814W obtained in 2020 June. We find that the globular cluster candidate has a magnitude, color, and angular extent that are consistent with it being a typical globular cluster. The separation between the globular cluster and SN 2019ein is 0.″43, or 59 pc in projection. The chance occurrence with a random globular cluster is ≈3%, favoring but not proving an association. If the SN progenitor originated in the globular cluster, one scenario is that SN 2019ein was previously a double-degenerate white dwarf binary that was dynamically ejected from the globular cluster and exploded within 10 Myr; models do not predict this to be common. Another, but less likely scenario is where the progenitor remained bound to the globular cluster, allowing the double-degenerate binary to inspiral on a much longer timescale before producing an SN.

Negative variance components and intercept-slope correlations greater than one in magnitude: How do such "non-regular" random intercept and slope models arise, and what should be done when they do?

Statistical models with random intercepts and slopes (RIAS models) are commonly used to analyze longitudinal data. Fitting such models sometimes results in negative estimates of variance components or estimates on parameter space boundaries. This can be an unlucky chance occurrence, but can also occur because certain marginal distributions are mathematically identical to those from RIAS models with negative intercept and/or slope variance components and/or intercept-slope correlations greater than one in magnitude. We term such parameters "pseudo-variances" and "pseudo-correlations," and the models "non-regular." We use eigenvalue theory to explore how and when such non-regular RIAS models arise, showing: (i) A small number of measurements, short follow-up, and large residual variance increase the parameter space for which data (with a positive semidefinite marginal variance-covariance matrix) are compatible with non-regular RIAS models. (ii) Non-regular RIAS models can arise from model misspecification, when non-linearity in fixed effects is ignored or when random effects are omitted. (iii) A non-regular RIAS model can sometimes be interpreted as a regular linear mixed model with one or more additional random effects, which may not be identifiable from the data. (iv) Particular parameterizations of non-regular RIAS models have no generality for all possible numbers of measurements over time. Because of this lack of generality, we conclude that non-regular RIAS models can only be regarded as plausible data-generating mechanisms in some situations. Nevertheless, fitting a non-regular RIAS model can be acceptable, allowing unbiased inference on fixed effects where commonly recommended alternatives such as dropping the random slope result in bias.

Hydrocephalus associated with a molar tooth sign: A distinct subtype of Joubert syndrome.

Hydrocephalus is rarely described in Joubert-Boltshauser syndrome (JBTS). The aim of this study was to investigate whether this association is a chance occurrence or potentially signifies a new phenotypic subtype. The databases of Wolfson Medical Center, Sourasky Medical Center, and EB's personal collection were reviewed. Records from an additional family were obtained from RG. The patients' medical records, prenatal ultrasounds, and magnetic resonance imaging were assessed. In addition, we reviewed the medical literature for the association of ventriculomegaly/hydrocephalus (VM/HC) in JBTS. Only seven cases (from five families) were found with prenatal onset of VM/HC, diagnosed during the second trimester; three pregnancies were terminated, one was stillborn and three were born, of which one died within a week, and another died at the age of 6 years. Additional central nervous system findings included dysgenesis of the corpus callosum, delayed sulcation, polymicrogyria, and pachygyria. We found 16 publications describing 54 patients with JBTS and VM/HC: only five were diagnosed at birth and three were diagnosed prenatally. Hydrocephalus is extremely rare in JBTS. The recurrence of this association, reported in several publications in multiple family members, suggests that it might represent a new phenotypic subtype of JBTS possibly associated with specific genes or variants. Further genetic studies are needed to confirm this hypothesis. WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS: The association of fetal hydrocephalus with Joubert-Boltshauser syndrome (JBTS) is very rare but not a chance association. This association represents a new phenotypic subtype of JBTS possibly linked to specific genes or variants.

Analisis Jaminan Kematian Terhadap Ahli Waris BPJS Ketenagakerjaan Menurut Perspektif Asuransi Syariah (Studi Kasus BPJS Ketenagakerjaan Cabang Medan)

BPJS Employment is a state program that aims to provide guaranteed social protection for all Indonesian workers. Death Benefit (JKM) is a social security program implemented nationally based on social insurance principles with the aim of providing death benefits paid to the heirs of participants who die. Fulfilling worldly needs is an obligation. However, fulfilling the world's needs to achieve these needs can be done by protecting yourself, but still following Islamic law. This research aims to find out how the implementation of providing death insurance for the heirs of BPJS Employment Medan Branch according to the Sharia Insurance Perspective. This research uses a qualitative descriptive analysis method. Collecting research data through observation and interviews. The informants for this research are the Head of BPJS Employment Services, Medan Branch Office and the beneficiaries of the Death Insurance Program. The results of the research show that the implementation of providing death insurance to heirs has not been effectively implemented because the death compensation funds to heirs are late so that the death compensation cannot be felt during the death procession starting from the burial of the body to the prayer for the souls from the 7th day, even 40th day soul prayer. This is due to the heirs' lack of understanding in implementing the death insurance program and the application or processing of death insurance application documents requires too many requirements so that getting the death insurance benefits takes a long time. The non-payment of participants' death insurance claims for months by BPJS Employment has three strong indications of maladministration, namely protracted delays, non-compliance and unprofessionalism. Maladministration is behavior or acts against the law and ethics in the public service administration process. The forms of maladministration are procedural deviations, discriminatory actions, abuse of authority, including negligence or neglect of legal obligations, requests for rewards, and others. In the implementation of providing death insurance to heirs by BPJS Employment Medan Branch, it is not in accordance with sharia insurance principles, there is the occurrence of chance which has an impact on the element of maysir (gambling), there is an element of usury fadhl (excess between what is received and what is paid), including fines for lateness.

Immediate onset signatures of autoimmune diseases after vaccination

Severe adverse events, including autoimmune diseases, have been noted in some individuals following vaccination. It is still unknown whether a subset of these autoimmune disease adverse events (ADAE) is triggered by the immunization and is not background chance occurrences. Only a small fraction of adverse events experienced by vaccinees has been reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) database. In this study, ADAEs within VAERS are examined. The frequency of autoimmune disease adverse reactions reported immediately following vaccination was compared to the background population adverse event frequency. The frequency of immediate-onset autoimmune diseases, extracted from VAERS, arisen after vaccination was found to exceed the expected background occurrences. Vaccinees who receive a second COVID-19 mRNA vaccination dose 3 weeks after the first dose appear to experience an increased number of ADAE. Furthermore, human papillomavirus (HPV), hepatitis A, and hepatitis B vaccines exhibit distinctive patterns of associations with autoimmune diseases. The potential role of vaccine aluminum adjuvant, included in these vaccines, cannot be ruled out as contributing to ADAE. VAERS data illustrate immediate onset correlations for multiple autoimmune diseases across various vaccines. Autoimmune diseases immediate temporal onset associations that occur following COVID-19 mRNA and adenoviral vaccinations are predicted to occur with similar frequencies for all mRNA and adenoviral vaccines and therapeutics. Taken together, removal of aluminum adjuvants from HPV, hepatitis A, and hepatitis B vaccines, among others, should be considered in the effort to reduce the occurrence of immediate-onset autoimmune diseases.

Recombination between coronaviruses and synthetic RNAs and biorisk implications motivated by a SARS-CoV-2 FCS origin controversy.

The urgent need for improved policy, regulation, and oversight of research with potential pandemic pathogens (PPPs) has been widely acknowledged. A 2022 article in Frontiers in Virology raises questions, reporting on a 100% sequence homology between the SARS-CoV-2 furin cleavage site (FCS) and the negative strand of a 2017 patented sequence. Even though Ambati and collaborators suspect a possible inadvertent or intentional cause leading to the FCS insert, the related underpinnings have not been studied from the perspective of potential biorisk policy gaps. A commentary on their article contests the low coincidence likelihood that was calculated by Ambati et al., arguing that the sequence match could have been a chance occurrence alone. Additionally, it has been suggested that the odds of the recombination event may be low. These considerations seem to have put many speculations related to any implied viral beginnings, notably from a research setting likely outside the Wuhan Institute of Virology, to rest. However, potential implications for future disasters in terms of biosafety and biosecurity have not been addressed. To demonstrate the feasibility of the Ambati et al. postulate, a theoretical framework is developed that substantially extends the research orientations implicated by these authors and the related patent. It is argued that specific experimental conditions, in combination, could significantly increase the implied recombination profile between coronaviruses and synthetic RNAs. Consequently, this article scrutinizes these largely unrecognized vulnerabilities to discuss implications across the spectrum of the biological risk landscape, with special attention to a potential "crime harvest." Focusing on insufficiently understood features of interaction between the natural and man-made world, vulnerabilities related to contaminants, camouflaging, and various misuse potentials fostered by the digitization and computerization of synthetic biology, it highlights novel biorisk gaps not covered by existing PPP policy. Even though this work does not aim to provide proof of the viral origin, it will make the point that, in theory, a convergence of under-appreciated lab experiments and technologies could have led to the SARS-CoV-2 FCS insert, which analogously could be exploited by various threat actors for the clandestine genesis of similar or even worse pathogens.

The Economics of Nature: Constrained Dynamic Optimization and Efficient Decentralized Decision Making in Nature

The paper suggests that the study of economics as being practised in the economics profession today is needlessly human centered. Evidence is presented that the driving force behind activities of all living organisms including humans is economic in nature. Their behaviors are driven by the objective of constrained dynamic optimization, i.e., that they behave rationally. Further, whenever large-scale groups are formed such as colonies of ants and bees, and trees of the forest, they resort to decentralized decision making to obtain efficiency. The evidence for this proposition is rooted in a wide range of observations on the behaviors of many plants and animals and indeed in how their genome is organized and functions. Recent research suggests that the origin of life itself had the underlying motive that was economic in nature, i.e., that life was not a chance occurrence but an inevitable outcome of energy-dissipation-driven organization of the matters behaving so as to maximize the economic efficiency along the evolutionary path of increasing entropy production. Further, observations on a wide range of natural phenomena, including straight-line path of sunlight, symmetry of snowflakes and crystals, lead us to believe that it is not just living organisms that behave rationally but inorganic matters as well rationally in the sense that they behave with the objective of constrained dynamic optimization that produces efficient outcome.

The Decision Tree Aided Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Characterization of the Stochastic Hydrology of the Tana Alluvial Aquifer

The Tana Alluvial Aquifer is the name given to the little-understood aquifer which is active in the areas bordering the River Tana Flow course as the river weaves its way through the sedimentary plains of Balambala, Garissa, Fafi and Ijara and, finally, into the Tana Delta areas, with the common denominator being the proximity to the Lower Tana catchment, especially the riparian corridor of the River itself, and beyond. The aquifer may extend to between five to fifteen kilometers away from the river channels course way, and at times, it may be felt even 20 kilometers away. The geology of the locality is heterogeneous and comprise sediments whose soil mechanics may not be easily deciphered, since some areas close to the river have very fresh water while others are saline (Bura East in Fafi Sub County easily comes to mind here). There are areas far from the river but bearing fresh water (Mulanjo comes to mind). In some areas, sites close to the river discharge low yield figures, whereas those located farther afield discharge favorably. The water quality and discharge are therefore stochastic variables, subject to chance occurrence. In view of this inconsistency, and on the account of data scarcity, the neuro-fuzzy inference algorithm was developed to map the Universe of Discourse of the Tana Alluvial Aquifer, aka the T.A.A., as it relates to the longitudes, latitudes, depths, and discharges of the aquifers in the study area. The mapping was with respect to aquifer discharge, the variable used to characterize an aquifer, in terms of Transmissivity and Hydraulic Conductivity, thereby defining aquifer recharge propensity. Membership functions were developed using the trapezoidal membership family, and fuzzy rules were appropriately evolved from the fuzzified aquifer data, before finally employing the Sugeno inference engines (in Python) to make predictions of discharge, at each of the T.A.A. aquifer subsets mapped for fresh, saline, hard and brackish water species. The accuracy in the outputs achieved in the areas mapped vindicated the power of the neuro-fuzzy inference systems, as the accuracy oscillated between 92 and 99 percent, when the discharge values predicted were compared with the actual known discharge values of the wells mapped. The water quality class characterization was then undertaken using the decision tree (DT) algorithm in python which gave rise to a 100 percent prediction accuracy. The same DT algorithm could not successfully predict the discrete values of aquifer discharge or EC values, with as much accuracy (but performed excellently with salinity class data), and that was why fuzzy logic was employed. The study vindicated the use of the DT and Fuzzy Logic Algorithms as simple, yet powerful analytical tools, in characterizing the Stochastic Hydrology of the Tana Alluvial Aquifer.

Historic Spatial Patterns of Storm-Driven Compound Events in UK Estuaries

AbstractCompound estuarine flooding is driven by extreme sea-levels and river discharge occurring concurrently, or in close succession, and threatens low-lying coastal regions worldwide. We hypothesise that these drivers of flooding rarely occur independently and co-operate at sub-daily timescales. This research aimed to identify regions and individual estuaries within Britain susceptible to storm-driven compound events, using 27 tide gauges linked to 126 river gauges covering a 30-year record. Five methods were evaluated, based on daily mean, daily maximum, and instantaneous 15-min discharge data to identify extremes in the river records, with corresponding skew surges identified within a ‘storm window’ based on average hydrograph duration. The durations, relative timings, and overlap of these extreme events were also calculated. Dependence between extreme skew surge and river discharge in Britain displayed a clear east–west split, with gauges on the west coast showing stronger correlations up to 0.33. Interpreting dependence based on correlation alone can be misleading and should be considered alongside number of historic extreme events. The analyses identified 46 gauges, notably the Rivers Lune and Orchy, where there has been the greatest chance and most occurrences of river-sea extremes coinciding, and where these events readily overlapped one another. Our results were sensitive to the analysis method used. Most notably, daily mean discharge underestimated peaks in the record and did not accurately capture likelihood of compound events in 68% of estuaries. This has implications for future flood risk in Britain, whereby studies should capture sub-daily timescale and concurrent sea-fluvial climatology to support long-term flood management plans.

Familial colloid cysts: not a chance occurrence.

Colloid cysts are rare, benign brain tumors of the third ventricle with an estimated population prevalence of 1 in 5800. Sudden deterioration and death secondary to obstructive hydrocephalus are well-described presentations in patients with a colloid cyst. Although historically conceptualized as driven by sporadic genetic events, a growing body of literature supports the possibility of an inherited predisposition. A prospective registry of patients with colloid cysts was maintained between 1996 and 2021. Data pertaining to a family history of colloid cyst was collected retrospectively; self-reporting was validated in each case by medical record or imaging review. Frequency of patients with a documented first-degree family member with a colloid cyst based on self-reporting was calculated. The rate of familial co-occurrence within our series was then compared to a systematic literature review and aggregation of familial case studies, as well as population-based prevalence rates of sporadic colloid cysts. Thirteen cases with affected first-degree relatives were identified in our series. Of the entire cohort, 19/26 were symptomatic from the lesion (73%), 12/26 (46.2%) underwent resection, and 2/26 (7.7%) had sudden death from presumed obstructive hydrocephalus. The majority of transmission patterns were between mother and child (9/13). Compared with the estimated prevalence of colloid cysts, our FCC rate of 13 cases in 383 (3.4%) estimates a greater-than-chance rate of co-occurrence. Systematic screening for FCCs may facilitate early recognition and treatment of indolent cysts, thereby preventing the rapid deterioration that can occur with an unrecognized third ventricular tumor. Furthermore, identifying a transmission pattern may yield more insight into the molecular and genetic underpinnings of colloid cysts.

Revisiting the 5000-Year-Old Tally at Mnajdra, Malta

The pillars at the entrance of the inner apse of one of the cluster of Neolithic temples at Mnajdra, Malta display rows of drilled holes which have been interpreted as a tally of days. Furthermore, it has been proposed that the number of holes in the rows on the east pillar coincides well with a sequence of intervals between the heliacal rising of bright stars or star groups. Is this remarkable correspondence simply a chance occurrence, or do the drilled holes represent material evidence of deliberate time reckoning by means of heliacal star risings in the Neolithic age? This question has led to the statistical investigation described in this paper, which takes into account the heliacal risings of all stars of magnitude 2.0 or brighter visible from Malta 5000 years ago as well as the Pleiades and the Hyades star clusters, which attracted the attention of other ancient cultures. The paper presents and discusses the method used and the challenges involved in the investigation. The results show that with a tolerance of ±1 day for uncertainty in the calculated heliacal rise days, the probability of achieving an exact correspondence between a random ordering of the tally and a series of star rises is 0.0014. With a wider tolerance of ±2 days the probability is 0.011. The final section discusses the significance and implications of these results.

P208 A case of double positivity

Abstract Background/Aims In the absence of renal or lung involvement, the investigation of small vessel vasculitis does not routinely include checking of anti-glomerular basement membrane (GBM) antibodies. We present a patient with an MPO-ANCA positive vasculitic neuropathy who later developed anti-GBM positive glomerulonephritis. We review the literature on patients who are “double-positive” for ANCA and GBM antibodies and speculate on the utility of routinely screening all vasculitis patients for GBM antibodies in the absence of manifestations of Goodpasture’s syndrome. Methods We describe a 70 year old female who presented feeling generally unwell with reduced mobility due to discomfort in her feet. Examination was unremarkable, except for reduced temperature and joint position sense in the feet. CRP was elevated and she was found to have a weakly positive MPO titre of 32. She was treated as an MPO-ANCA positive vasculitis and neuropathy with steroids and Mycophenolate Mofetil, with a good clinical and biochemical response. Fifteen months into her treatment, routine monitoring revealed an acute kidney injury with a creatinine of 459 umol/l from a baseline of 88. Anti GBM titres were requested for the first time as part of the renal screen. MPO antibody titres were only 9, but GBM antibody titres were markedly elevated (>200). Renal biopsy showed focal necrotising glomerulonephritis, in keeping with anti-GBM disease. She was treated with steroids, cyclophosphamide and plasma exchange by the renal physicians. She remains dialysis dependant. Results In our patient, GBM antibodies were only requested once she developed relevant clinical manifestations of anti-GBM disease. This in contrast to nephrology practise, where ANCA and GBM antibodies are routinely requested simultaneously in the context of nephritis. It could be speculated that if the GBM antibody status had been detected sooner, we may have altered her management and possibly improved her disease course. Anti-GBM disease and ANCA-associated vasculitis are both rare conditions. However, co-existence of the two uncommon diseases in individual patients is well-described and more than chance occurrence. A study showed that 5% of ANCA-positive cases were also positive for anti-GBM antibodies, while one-third of anti-GBM positive samples had detectable ANCA. Multiple studies have shown that low level ANCA antibodies develop months to years before onset of anti-GBM disease, as seen in our patient as well.The dominant disease phenotype in double positive patients is anti-GBM disease rather than vasculitis. It is very rare for isolated anti-GBM disease to relapse. In contrast, half of double positive patients experience disease relapse and therefore, require long-term follow-up and maintenance immunosuppression. Conclusion Awareness of this double positive phenomenon is important. Rheumatologists do not routinely check anti-GBM in all vasculitis. This case highlights the importance of doing so, especially in atypical presentation of vasculitis or in relapse and refractory disease. Disclosure S. Khalid: None. J. Li: None. S. Young Min: None.

A Low Signal Detection of X‐Rays From Uranus

AbstractWithin the solar system, X‐ray emissions have been detected from every planet except the Ice Giants: Uranus and Neptune. We analyze the three archival Chandra X‐ray observations of Uranus (each 24–30 ks duration) to date: a stand‐alone Advanced CCD Imaging Spectrometer (ACIS) observation on August 7, 2002 and two High Resolution Camera (HRC) observations on November 11 and 12, 2017 coordinated with optical observations. For the earlier ACIS observation, the Uranus‐coincident photons were clustered in the 0.6–1.1 keV spectral range, consistent with emission from Jupiter and Saturn. To test the significance of the detected signal, we distributed a grid of ∼10,000 Uranus‐sized regions across the field of view (FoV). The number of Uranus‐coincident X‐ray photons in the 0.5–1.2 keV range exceeded 99.9% of Uranus‐sized regions across the FoV (10.2 standard deviations > FoV mean; probability of chance occurrence ∼10−6–10−7). However, the planetary signal was low with only 5 ± 2.2 X‐ray photons against a FoV mean background of 0.16 photons. Without the possibility of energy filtering, the recent HRC observations had a much brighter background (FoV mean ∼10 photons). Consequently, neither of the new observations provided a second unambiguous Uranus detection, although a 40‐min interval of brightening on November 12, 2017 did produce a signal above 99.9% of the FoV. The observed Uranus X‐ray fluxes of 10−15–10−16 erg/cm2/s are consistent with previous observational limits and modeling predictions. These fluxes exceed expectations from scattered solar emission alone, suggesting either a larger X‐ray albedo than Jupiter/Saturn or the possibility of additional X‐ray production processes at Uranus. Further observations are needed to test this.

Spilling Ink and Cleaning Oil

Spilling Ink and Cleaning Oil

Free Will and Determinism: Resolving the Tension

Progress may be made in resolving the tension between free will and determinism by analysis of the necessary conditions of freedom. It is of the essence that these conditions include causal and deterministic regularities. Furthermore, the human expression of free will is informed by understanding some of those regularities, and increments in that understanding have served to enhance freedom. When the possible character of a deterministic system based on physical theory is considered, it is judged that, far from implying the elimination of human freedom, such a theory might simply set parameters for it; indeed knowledge of that system could again prove to be in some respects liberating. On the other hand, it is of the essence that the overarching biological framework is not a deterministic system and it foregrounds the behavioural flexibility of humans in being able to choose within a range of options and react to chance occurrences. Furthermore, an issue for determinism flows from the way in which randomness (e.g. using a true random number generator) and chance events could and do enter human life. Once the implications of that issue are fully understood, other elements fit comfortably together in our understanding of freely undertaken action: the contribution of reasons and causes; the fact that reasons are never sufficient to account for outcomes; the rationale for the attribution of praise and blame.

Microserendipity in the Creative Process

AbstractQualitative research on creativity often highlights the role of accidents in creative process, but there is little research that takes these as its main topic. Perhaps because a model that relies on accidents undermines the meaningfulness of creativity; perhaps because the phenomenon itself is too complex to underwrite an entire research program. This paper suggests the framework of serendipity to better understand the interaction between a person and chance occurrences. Serendipity is a fortuitous accident, the enactment of environmental luck by a prepared mind. Current research on serendipity proceeds from a mainly retrospective position, centring the experience of the person. This creates a serendipitous narrative without necessarily telling us more about the moment itself. It is thus harder to consider the role of accidental moments and the nature of their contribution to the creative process. We argue that these moments, viewed outside of the person’s narrative account, are worthy of study and offer some suggestions for how that might occur. We use the term “microserendipity” to designate moments which arise from distributed creative agency. We suggest we can support current research in both creativity and serendipity by undertaking detailed analysis of observational data to scaffold understanding of these complex phenomena.