Challenger Parties Research Articles

Party system ideological polarization in Western Europe: data, trends, drivers, and links with other key party system properties (1945–2021)

ABSTRACT Unlike other key party system properties (e.g. fragmentation, volatility), polarization lacks a publicly available cross-national and longitudinal dataset that can be used as an established source among the scientific community. This article aims to fill this gap by introducing a novel publicly available dataset of party system ideological polarization in Western European party systems. The dataset relies on multiple expert surveys and provides measures of party system ideological polarization for each parliamentary election and legislature in 20 Western European countries since 1945. The article also presents party system polarization’s comparative longitudinal trends, drivers, and links with other key party system properties. It finds that party system ideological polarization is on the rise in Western Europe, mainly due to a progressive shift in the electoral support from ideologically moderate mainstream parties to more extreme challenger parties. Moreover, in recent years, high party system polarization has recurred in highly fragmented and volatile contexts, thus creating a detrimental context for the working of democracy.

Reining in the Rascals: Challenger Parties’ Path to Power

Reining in the Rascals: Challenger Parties’ Path to Power

The challenger advantage – how challenger parties disrupt mainstream party dominance in the European Parliament

ABSTRACT Under what conditions can challenger parties disrupt mainstream party dominance in democratic institutions? While extant work describes the cultural and economic developments that benefit challengers and parties’ programmatic responses to these, I demonstrate when and how challengers exploit these conditions in their political communication. Theoretically, I posit that challenger parties have relatively stronger vote-seeking incentives than mainstream parties. These collective incentives affect individual parliamentarians’ cost–benefit calculations. Challenger parliamentarians will engage in anti-establishment rhetoric and issue-entrepreneurship when these signals are more likely to reach the voting public and pay-off electorally. I test this theory by analysing parliamentary debates from the European Parliament (1999–2016) through a novel combination of word embeddings and bespoke dictionaries. I find that challenger parties indeed pursue different communication strategies than mainstream parties. Challenger parliamentarians engage in anti-establishment rhetoric in the run-up to elections and issue-entrepreneurship during crises. This is because these factors make speeches more likely to be transmitted to voters. These results demonstrate that challengers adjust their political communication in opportune moments giving them a competitive advantage over less flexible mainstream parties.

Political Parties and Public Policies. A Review of the Spanish Evidence

Abstract To what extent does the incumbent party’s identity shape public policies? We investigate this question by examining national and regional policies in Spain. First, we analyze the evolution of voter preferences, and ofthe platforms of the two mainstream parties (Partido Socialista Obrero Español [PSOE] and Partido Popular [PP]), and the newer challenger parties that emerged post-financial crisis (Ciudadanos, Podemos, and Vox). We focus on three key national-level issue dimensions: economic, social, and centralization. As expected, the right-wing PP adopts a more conservative stance on all dimensions compared to the left-wing PSOE. However, the policy gap between these two parties remains relatively stable until the mid-2000s, with party platforms tracking the evolution of citizen preferences. After this period, platforms start to diverge, especially in the case of new parties, which display radical stances on these dimensions. We also provide descriptive evidence suggesting that these platform differences have translated into enacted policies. Second, to offer causal evidence on the effect of party identity on policy decisions, we examine partisan disparities in regional fiscal policies. Our findings reveal significant differences in tax policy following the granting of tax autonomy to the regions, somewhat moderated by tax competition and fiscal limits.

Challenging by Cueing? An Investigation of Party and Leader Cueing Effects Across Mainstream and Challenger Party Voters

AbstractThe emergence of new challenger parties calls for a reassessment of the party-model of opinion formation by examining different sources of cues across types of voters and the conditions that make cueing more effective. Although new challenger parties may lack sufficient time to develop identification with groups and distinctive party reputations, they may still provide effective cues and reduce their competitive disadvantage in developing affective social identity ties. This article investigates this argument by assessing the impact of party and leader cues on voters from mainstream and challenger parties and examining how expressive partisanship (partisan social identities) and instrumental partisanship (party competence evaluations) moderate these effects. Utilizing data from a survey experiment conducted in Spain during a period of party system restructuring, we find similar cueing effects across party and leader cues when comparing voters of both mainstream and challenger parties. Additionally, contrary to our expectations, we observe that cueing effects for mainstream party voters combine expressive and instrumental reasoning, while those for new challenger party voters are driven by perceptions of party competence reputation only. These findings challenge the prevailing belief that familiarity and time enhance cueing effects. They also deviate from socio-psychological approaches that emphasize the emotional and identity components of partisanship in strengthening cueing effects.

Disintegration and party competition: evidence from parliamentary speeches on Brexit

ABSTRACT How do political parties in the European Union (EU) react to disintegration bids from a member state? This question is important, as scholars have argued that framing by elites (particularly Eurosceptic entrepreneurs) is crucial in shaping whether disintegration is seen as an example to follow or one to avoid. This article investigates how parties outside the UK reacted to Brexit, and argues that Eurosceptic challenger parties and mainstream pro-European parties altered their stances after the referendum vote in June 2016. I use a combination of automated and hand-coded methods to identify and analyse 2223 Brexit statements in the parliaments of five member states between 2013 and 2018. I show how after the referendum vote, challenger parties avoid Brexit and significantly moderate the Euroscepticism in their Brexit statements. By contrast mainstream parties emphasise Brexit and significantly increase the pro-Europeanism in their Brexit statements. Results show that in the short term at least, there is little evidence of Eurosceptic entrepreneurs framing Brexit as a positive precedent or example to follow.

Not everyone suffers equally: The effect of electoral overlap on mainstream party responses to radical right parties

The rise of radical right parties in Europe has led to a number of strategic responses from mainstream parties (MSPs). However, not all MSPs are equally affected by the rise of challenger parties. This idea has been neglected in much of the quantitative work in the field. This paper extends this argument and investigates electoral overlap in a cross-country study of multiparty systems. Using Propensity to Vote (PTV) data to measure the electoral overlap between MSPs and radical right parties in eight Western European countries, I estimate the effect of right-wing threat on the positions of MSPs on immigration. A higher threat of losing voters to the radical right is associated with a move towards more restrictive immigration policies; on the other hand, a party’s chance to win voters back from the radical right has no significant impact on its positions.

The pandemic crisis narrated by the populist radical right parties. The cases of the Lega per Salvini and the Rassemblement National

One of the characteristics of populist communication is the staging of crises. In particular, populist radical right parties (PRRPs) often communicate a sense of looming crisis by naming real or imagined threats. In light of the recent pandemic crisis, an event that disrupted the ordinary and opened a space for discursive competition, we aim to answer the following questions: what crisis narrative did PRRPs offer? Is it possible to identify a populist articulation in their crisis narratives? Were there differences from their own previous political discourses and the narratives of other similar PRRPs? We propose a qualitative analysis of Facebook posts made in 2020 by the leaders of the Lega per Salvini in Italy and the Rassemblement National in France, Matteo Salvini and Marine Le Pen. We show that the two leaders used a combination of two main strategies: distraction from the crisis by politicizing other issues and maximization of the crisis by identifying enemies and victims. Their crisis narratives had many similarities due to their shared membership of the PRR family and their competitive position as challenger parties but they also had differences that depend on their identity specific characteristics.

The effect of regime change on entrepreneurship: A real options approach with evidence from US gubernatorial elections

Although political turnover is said to be a healthy component of the business environment, the literature is equivocal about the effects of regime change on early-stage entrepreneurial activity. I present incumbent displacement—the electoral defeat of an incumbent political party's candidate—as a source of regime change, and I analyze how this affects business formation through the lens of real options theory. I test my theory using US gubernatorial elections from 2004 to 2022, leveraging a Regression Discontinuity design to compare changes in business formation trends following elections where a challenger party candidate wins or loses by a close margin. I find that regime change reduces venture creation activity for growth-oriented ventures specifically. I also find evidence of a partial rebound in subsequent months—suggestive that some entrepreneurs delay entry while others permanently abandon their ventures.

The impact of party competition on LGBTI+ rights: Evidence from Spanish autonomous regions (1990–2022)

AbstractPolitical competition accelerates the enactment of lesbian, gay, bisexual, trans*, and intersexual rights (LGBTI+) due to the dynamic, rational behavior of mainstream parties across the political aisle to adapt to the sociopolitical environment. We argue that LGBTI+ social movements capitalize on median voter shifts combined with the rising pressure of ideologically close challenger parties to enact legislation. To examine this argument, we employ quantitative event history analysis with a unique dataset with measures for social movement, institutional, political, and sociocultural dimensions across 33 years in Spanish subnational arenas. We find that rising leftist and liberal contenders challenging dominant center‐left and center‐right parties, respectively, widen the opportunity political structure of LGBTI+ organizations. Ultimately, rising political fragmentation in a multiparty, multidimensional party system turns both left and right mainstream parties into allies of LGBTI+ organizations, which propose new legislation, due to political platforms seeking to preserve and enhance their electoral base.Related ArticlesBurnett, Craig M., and Aaron S. King. 2015. “The Personal Politics of Same‐Sex Marriage.” Politics & Policy 43(4): 586–610. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12126.Lewis, Gregory B., Marc A. Rogers, and Kenneth Sherrill. 2011. “Lesbian, Gay, and Bisexual Voters in the 2000 US Presidential Election.” Politics & Policy 39(5): 655–77. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2011.00315.x.Skipworth, Sue Ann, Andrew Garner, and Bryan J. Dettrey. 2010. “Limitations of the Contact Hypothesis: Heterogeneity in the Contact Effect on Attitudes toward Gay Rights.” Politics & Policy 38(5): 887–906. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2010.00262.x.

The activation of nationalist attitudes: how voters respond to far-right parties’ campaigns

ABSTRACT The rise of far-right parties represents one of the main challenges for European democracies. Previous research has shed light both on their electoral strategies, and on the nationalist attitudes of their electorates. Yet, the causal mechanism by which far-right party discourse activates voters’ preferences is still unclear. This paper revisits the literature on campaign effects in the context of challenger party entry, and argues that the activation of attitudes on ‘wedge issues’, such as immigration and European integration, is the outcome of a process of learning and partisan updating. The empirical analyses focus on the electoral breakthrough of far-right parties in Britain and Germany, and rely on three-wave panel surveys to address reverse causation. Results show that voters update their vote intentions in light of their Eurosceptic and xenophobic attitudes only when they learn the policy positions of the far-right party vis-à-vis the other parties. These findings shed light on the nature of far-right party support, set a scope condition for research on priming and persuasion in election campaigns, and contribute to normative debates about the functioning of electoral democracy.

Future-proofing the people? A comparative analysis of data sovereignty as a discursive practice in Western European right-wing populism’s digital policies

This paper examines the concept of data sovereignty as a discursive practice in light of the populist idea of popular sovereignty and analyzes the digital policies of Western European right-wing populist parties (WEPs). It argues that WEPs use popular sovereignty and data sovereignty in a similar way: as discursive tools to legitimize drawing power back to the national level (with divergent and often contradictory interpretations), rather than workable foundations for policy plans. The paper also discusses how international cooperation, which populists often reject, is a useful tool to achieve data sovereignty. With this contradiction in mind, the paper develops an agent-based typology of data sovereignty as a discursive practice. It then analyzes the most recent official electoral programs of several WEPs: AfD in Germany, PVV and FvD in the Netherlands, UKIP in the UK, Vlaams Belang in Belgium, and Rassemblement National in France. It uses a comparative policy analysis to compare the cases along several data points such as the proposed roles of governments, private companies, and cyber diplomacy. Most of the WEPs under discussion see data sovereignty as synonymous with individual privacy, do not acknowledge the role of international cooperation, and use digital policy as a means of reinforcing their image as challenger parties.

Between Stale Stability and Dynamic Contestation

Abstract This article uses national survey data, quantitative party system indicators, as well as manifesto data to assess the proposition whether the Croatian party system is indeed one of the most stable systems among post-communist EU member states. The analysis spans three decades and focuses on changes after EU accession and confirms long-term stability of the Croatian party system. However, after the 2015 election, there was a decline in the popularity of the two major parties – Christian Democrats (hdz) and Social Democrats (sdp), and an emergence of several challenger parties – the center-right populist Bridge, which favors institutional reform and decentralization, the Eurosceptic, populist, and nationalist Homeland Movement, and We Can!, a green-left coalition of academics and environmentalists. In addition, the observed party system change was accompanied by a rise in civic referendum initiatives around bioethical issues such as sex education and same-sex marriage.

Indigenous People’s Self-governing Bodies and the Role of Civil Society: The Case of the Norwegian Sámi

In this paper, the authors look at the relationship between the Sámi Parliament in Norway and the Sámi civil society as seen both from the perspective of the party leaders and representatives, the civil society organisations, and the voters. While strong civil societies are important in ensuring responsive democratic governance systems in general, they may be particularly important in a political system such as the Sámi. Sámi politics operates within the Norwegian unitary state, where the tension between Sámi autonomy and integration into the Norwegian is systemic and where the pressure towards increased co-optation is constantly present. The authors find that Sámi interest and participation in civil society are at the same level as that of the population at large when the authors measure participation in Sámi and Norwegian organisations combined, but only one out of four memberships are in a strictly Sámi organisation. The authors also find that the level and type of contact between the parties represented in the Sámi Parliament and Sámi civil society organisations is very limited, except for organisational contact with the Sámi Parliaments’ administration for information and services. Little points in the direction of these organisations having an important advocacy role. Their control- and opposition role is weak. The rise of a new challenger party, Nordkalottfolket, becoming the second largest party in the election of 2021, breaking with what makes Sámi politics indigenous, seems not to change the structure of the relationship between civil society organisations and the Sámi Parliament.

“Extending the Referendum Model of Presidential Election Outcomes: Both Candidates Matter”

We offer a candidate-centered amendment to incumbent-referendum models of presidential election outcomes that dominate the literature on post-WWII presidential elections. Our argument is that incumbent-challenger differences in character qualifications and issue concerns of the electorate should be included. These differentials, which recognize the advantage or disadvantage of the incumbent relative to the challenger party candidate have strong effects on election outcomes independent of the state of the economy, the number of years the incumbent party has held the White House, and presidential approval. Properly understood, in addition to the state of national affairs, presidential election outcomes are about the choice presented to the mass public. This added element means that candidates matter for election outcomes and electoral change in ways that have not been properly appreciated in existing scholarship.

Precarious work and challenger parties: how precarity influenced vote choice in the 2018 Italian election

AbstractAcross Western European democracies, the last 20 years have seen a growth of precarious employment and the rise of challenger parties. Both trends are especially marked in Italy, where occupational insecurity has become the norm and over half of the electorate has turned to a challenger party. In this article, I investigate the relationship between these two phenomena, addressing the question of whether and how precarity in the labor market influenced vote choice in the 2018 general election. First, I provide descriptive evidence that the Italian labor market shifted from dualism to generalized precarization. Second, I empirically investigate the relationship between precarity and voting in this context. The results show that the perception of precarity, not formal employment status, influenced voting behavior: it fostered participation, increased support for the Five Star Movement, and decreased support for the Democratic Party. These findings challenge core assumptions in the literature, first and foremost about precarious workers' low turnout rate, difficult mobilization, and consequent political irrelevance. They indicate that the electoral weight of precarious workers has increased, and their representation can be electorally beneficial.

Digital innovation in electoral campaigns: the case of microcredit in Podemos

ABSTRACT Crowdfunding and micro-donations for funding political campaigns have been extensively studied, especially in the US. However, digital participatory financing in Europe, with a different regulatory context and relevant public funding, has been investigated less. This article analyses the effects of an innovative and digital-native electoral campaign financing tool: the microcredit. Microcredits consist of small “civil loans” that a political party requests from sympathizers to finance the party's electoral campaign. Based on the case study of the Spanish party Podemos – the first one to implement it – for the period of 2015–2021, we use official data and party documents to explore the consequences of microcredit. We argue, first, that microcredits (and party financing) should be considered another way to differentiate challenger parties from traditional ones. Second, there is a link between the number and amount of microcredits and the political context, not limited to good electoral expectations but also to the polarized political context. Third, microcredits change the structure of campaign funding. Finally, we point out a regulation problem that may deter other parties from adopting this mechanism and present different legal problems (monitoring, data protection, or potential corruption), showing the regulatory issues for adapting to the digitalization of politics.

Who benefits from the social democratic march to the middle?

AbstractSocial democratic parties have experienced considerable electoral decline recently, which has often been attributed to their rightward policy movement. This paper advances this literature by examining who benefits from this moderation strategy and who is abandoning the social democrats. It does so by analyzing aggregate-level election results and individual-level Comparative Study of Electoral Systems data, on a sample of 21 advanced democracies, over 327 elections, from 1965 to 2019. I find little support for the assertion that social democrats are defecting to one party. However, in agreement with the spatial theory of party competition, results reveal that the radical left increasingly and significantly benefit from social democratic economic rightward positions, which is magnified when combined with rightward sociocultural positions. This predominantly occurs because left-leaning voters migrate to the radical left. The findings provide notable ramifications for party strategy and contribute to explanations for the rise of challenger parties, at the expense of mainstream parties.

The Changing Discourses of EU Enlargement: A Longitudinal Analysis of National Parliamentary Debates

AbstractDomestic support for EU enlargement across existing member states is understood to have shifted significantly since 2004. But, how? Here, we explore how enlargement has been framed discursively in the national parliaments of eight member states. Our dataset comprises over 18,000 statements from 1989 to 2019. We link our exploration to alternative explanations for change: IR‐based shifts in how applicant states are perceived and, from comparative politics, the ‘politicisation’ of EU membership in domestic party systems. We analyse changes in salience, sentiment and thematic foci. Our results confirm shifts in the perceptions of individual applicant states over time and an increased concern with issues of ‘identity’ in relation to enlargement. We find that whilst salience has declined, sentiment has turned negative and explore the distinctive discourses of ‘challenger parties’ in this regard.

Explaining Europe’s transformed electoral landscape: structure, salience, and agendas

AbstractWhat has caused the marked, cross-national, and unprecedented trends in European electoral results in the 21st century? Scholarly explanations include social structure and challenger party entrepreneurship. We argue that these electoral changes more proximally result from public issue salience, which results from societal trends and mainly affects rather than is caused by party agenda setting. We use aggregate-level panel data across 28 European countries to show that the public issue salience of three issues—unemployment, immigration, and the environment—is associated with later variation in the results of the conservative, social democrat, liberal, radical right, radical left, and green party families in theoretically expected directions, while the party system issue agenda has weaker associations. Public issue salience, in turn, is rooted in societal trends (unemployment rates, immigration rates and temperature anomalies), and, in some cases, party agenda setting. We validate our mechanism at the individual-level across 28 European countries and using UK panel data. Our findings have implications for our understanding of the agency of parties, the permanency of recent electoral changes, and how voters reconcile their social and political worlds.