Disintegration and party competition: evidence from parliamentary speeches on Brexit

Abstract

ABSTRACT How do political parties in the European Union (EU) react to disintegration bids from a member state? This question is important, as scholars have argued that framing by elites (particularly Eurosceptic entrepreneurs) is crucial in shaping whether disintegration is seen as an example to follow or one to avoid. This article investigates how parties outside the UK reacted to Brexit, and argues that Eurosceptic challenger parties and mainstream pro-European parties altered their stances after the referendum vote in June 2016. I use a combination of automated and hand-coded methods to identify and analyse 2223 Brexit statements in the parliaments of five member states between 2013 and 2018. I show how after the referendum vote, challenger parties avoid Brexit and significantly moderate the Euroscepticism in their Brexit statements. By contrast mainstream parties emphasise Brexit and significantly increase the pro-Europeanism in their Brexit statements. Results show that in the short term at least, there is little evidence of Eurosceptic entrepreneurs framing Brexit as a positive precedent or example to follow.