Background: Non-ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (NIDCM) is associated with an increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke, especially in patients with high CHA2DS2-VASc. We aimed to identify variables associated with incident AF or stroke using left atrial (LA) deformation analysis and its prognostic value added to CHA2DS2-VASc score. Patients with NIDCM and LVEF <50% in sinus rhythm were included between January 2015 and December 2019. LA volume index (LAVI) and atrial strain were used in combination with the CHA2DS2-VAS score to predict ischemic stroke or incident AF. Proportional hazards Cox regression was used to provide hazard ratios (HR). There were 338 patients included. After a median follow-up of 3.6 years, the endpoint occurred in 41 (12.1%) patients. LAVI outperformed other echocardiographic parameters, with significant improvement in risk reclassification compared to CHA2DS2-VASc alone (net reclassification index 0.6, increase in Harrell's C from 0.63 to 0.73, P=0.003) and remained significant after multivariate adjustment. LAVI was associated with both components of the endpoint separately. The best cutoff for LAVI was 44 ml/m2. LAVI ≥44ml/m2 increased the risk of the endpoint among those with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥3 (HR=6.0, 95%CI 2.6-13.5), but not in those with CHA2DS2-VASc <3 (HR=1.2, 95%CI 0.3-4.5). Competing risk analysis did not alter the results. In conclusion, LAVI might be used to assess the risk of incident AF or stroke in NIDCM. Patients with LAVI ≥44 ml/m2 and CHA2DS2-VASc ≥3 could be at high risk of AF and stroke and may benefit from more intensive surveillance.
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