Cessation Of Rains Research Articles

Climate, agroecology, and farm returns: differential impacts with implications for agricultural progress in the face of climate change

Climate change is expected to have differential impacts on different zones. In this study, we employed the Ricardian technique, estimated through ordinary least squares (OLS) to assess the impact of climate change on farmers’ revenue. We use survey data from two distinct agroecological zones in Cameroon. Our results show that rainfall is the main climatic variable affecting farmers’ revenue. The results are statistically different for the two agroecological zones. While rainfall in the dry season affects revenue in the western highland zone. No climatic variable seems to affect farm revenue in the bimodal forest zone. These results suggest that the abundance of forest in the bimodal zone maybe be shielding the zone from the effects of climate change. We therefore recommend that farmers employ water harvesting and low-cost irrigation methods to cope with changes in rainfall pattern especially in extended dry seasons. Facilitating farmers’ access to climate information particularly with respect to the onset and cessation of rains will improve the planning of farm operations.

Factors that influence pastoralists’ estimation of onset and cessation of rains in Rwenzori region in Western Uganda

There have been improvements in scientific forecast dissemination through radio, internet, and mobile phones in Eastern and Southern Africa, however pastoralists remain unreached. Majority of pastoralists are not using scientific forecasts routinely to estimate rainfall onset and cessation. Indigenous knowledge forecasts (IF) play an important role in pastoralists' decision-making related to rangeland use and climate change adaptation. This study examined the factors that influence the estimation of climatological onset and cessation of rains among pastoralists in Rwenzori region in western Uganda. Data were gathered from 269 pastoralists’ households about socio-economic characteristics and rain onset and cessation estimation. The data was analyzed using the probit model. The results indicate that herd mobility, climate information use (both scientific and indigenous), wealth, education level, social capital and perception of climate variability and change were determinants of rainfall onset estimation. Agricultural extension access, having lactating cows, and perception of climate variability and change increased the likelihood of accurate estimation of rainfall cessation. Investments in weather stations in pastoral areas, constructive engagement of stakeholders in climate services, strengthening the linkage between national agricultural extension and meteorological systems would improve the estimation of rainfall onset and cessation that could result in an improved adaptive capacity of pastoralists. Mainstreaming climate change information in national agricultural extension systems and enhancing climate forecast communication through social capital could reduce the vulnerability of pastoral livelihoods to climate change.

Potential Impact of Climate Variability on Tea Farming on the Mambilla Plateau, Taraba State, Nigeria

This study examined the potential impact of climate variability on tea farming on the Mambilla Plateau, Taraba State, Nigeria. Data for this study was generated through primary and secondary sources. The primary data were generated from field observation. Secondary desk review of existing literature and online resources were used. Archival data on climatic elements were obtained from the Upper Benue River Basin Development Authority (UBRBDA) Meteorological stations at Gembu and Maisamari, both on the Mambilla plateau. The data was analyzed using inferential statistics such as simple correlation coefficient (r), regression and time series analysis. The result of the findings on the trends of annual rainfall in the study area shows that rainfall amount, length of rainy season (LRS) and relative humidity were decreasing, with late onset and cessation of rains in the area. The trend of maximum and minimum temperature as well as wind speed was increasing owing to increasing rate of deforestation in the area. Climate variability and change has both advantages and disadvantages to the growth and development of tea which ultimately affect its production. Variability in precipitation and temperature has considerable impacts on tea quality and yields by altering the quantities and types of pests and weeds in and around tea farms. The findings of the study reveal that the global surface temperature has changed and will continue to change in the nearest future. Hence, the need to devise suitable means of adaptation and mitigation to the challenges of climate change in the area. Based on the findings, the study recommends the use of improved tea crop variety, involvement of local communities in climate change adaptation strategies, increase dissemination of climate information and education of the farmers on most suitable local adaptation strategies.

Climate Change Effects? Compelling Evidence from Data, Farmers and Artisans’ Perception in Warri, Delta State, Nigeria

This study assessed climate change in Warri, by looking at the evidence from archival records and the perception of the locals regarding same topic. The dangers of ‘not knowing’ about the phenomenon of climate change motivated this study. Also, the impacts of climate change have become rampant in the area. The inquiry was pursued using ex-post facto and survey research designs were used for the study and the Nigerian Meteorological Agency was consulted for rainfall and temperature data, while questionnaire was used to solicit information from respondents. Analyses were carried out using linear regressions. Established in the study is that, there is climate change in the area and its manifestations are in flooding, increased frequency of rainfall, poor crop yield etc. On the premise of findings, the study recommended proper climate education, harnessing ICT for mitigating climate change impacts and more inquiry into climate change milieu in the area by looking at the seasonality, onset and cessation of rains and other climate parameters.

Do indigenous forecasts and scientific forecasts influence arable farmers’ and agro-pastoralists’ estimation of onset and cessation of rains? Empirical evidence from Rwenzori region, Western Uganda

This study investigated the influence of indigenous forecasts (IF) and scientific forecasts (SF) on arable farmers’ and pastoralists’ estimation of onset and cessation of rains in the Rwenzori region of Western Uganda. Daily rainfall data (1970–2010) from 3 weather stations in different agro-ecological zones was used to determine mean onset and cessation dates using the Sivakaumar method. After obtaining the household survey of number of farmers and pastoralists whose estimation of onset and cessation dates were in agreement with the stations’ dates, the relationship between forecast type used and estimation of the dates was investigated using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The results indicate that onset dates for the 1st season were on 11th, 17th, 19th March while cessation was 8th, 11th, 21st June for lowlands, mountainous and forested areas, respectively. For the 2nd season, forested and mountainous areas had their onsets on 3rd and 20th August, respectively but the lowland area their onset on 3rd September. The cessation date for 2nd season for forested areas was on 8th December, while dates for lowland and mountainous areas were 17th and 24th November, respectively. The results suggest that there is positive relationship between using both IF and SF and estimation of onset and cessation dates but negative relationship with IF had for arable farmers. There was strong negative relationship between using both IF and SF and estimation of onset dates for the 2nd season for arable farmers in forested areas, but strong positive relationship with those using IF only season. The coefficients of variation for the rain onsets were high implying climate variability. The adopted Sivakaumar method is easy to operationalize by farmers and pastoralists with primary level of education, and access to daily rainfall data from established institutions like schools, local clinics and facilities provided by agricultural extension workers.

The effects of 2015 El Nino on smallholder maize production in the transitional ecological zone of Ghana

PurposeThis paper aims to provide empirical evidence on the El Nino and its effects on maize production in three municipalities: Ejura, Techiman and Wenchi in the transitional zone of Ghana. Using a mixed approach, the study details the effects of the El Nino on rainy season characteristics, particularly, rainfall amounts and distribution, onset and cessation of rains, duration of the rainy season and total seasonal rainfall and how it impacted smallholder maize production.Design/methodology/approachThe study used a mixed method approach in collecting and analyzing data. For stronger evidence building, (Creswell, 2013) the authors combined interviews and focus group discussions (FGD) to collect the qualitative data. Semi-structured questionnaires were administered to extension officers, management information system officers and other relevant personnel of the Ministry of Agriculture in the three municipalities. Six FGD’s were held for maize farmers in six communities in all three municipalities.FindingsThe study shows that the 2015 El Nino had dire consequences on farm yields, subsequently affecting farmer’s incomes and livelihoods. The study further finds that complex socio-cultural factors, some unrelated to the El Nino, aggravated the effects on maize farmers. These include the lack of adequate climatic information, predominance of rain-fed farming, a lack of capacity to adapt and existing levels of poverty.Originality/valueThe study recommends inter alia, appropriate use of seasonal rainfall forecasting to enhance better farming decision-making and the development of elaborate climate variability interventions by national and local agencies.

Intra-seasonal rainfall variability during the maize growing season in the northern lowlands of Lesotho

Intra-seasonal rainfall distribution was identified as a priority gap that needs to be addressed for southern Africa to cope with agro-meteorological risks. The region in the northwest of Lesotho is appropriate for crop cultivation due to its relatively favourable climatic conditions and soils. High rainfall variability is often blamed for poor agricultural production in this region. This study aims to determine the onset of rains, cessation of rains and rainy season duration using historical climate data. Temporal variability of these rainy season characteristics was also investigated. The earliest and latest onset dates of the rainy season are during the last week of October at Butha-Buthe and the third week of November at Mapoteng, respectively. Cessation of the season is predominantly in the first week of April making the season approximately 137–163 days long depending on the location. Average seasonal rainfall ranged from 474 mm at Mapoteng to 668 mm at Butha-Buthe. Onset and cessation of the rainfall season vary by 4–7 weeks and 1 week, respectively. Mean coefficient of variation of seasonal rainfall is 39 %, but monthly variations are higher. These variations make annual crop management and planning difficult each year. Trends show a decrease in the rainfall amounts but improvements in both the temporal distribution of annual rainfall, onset and cessation dates.

Rainy season characteristics of the Free State Province of South Africa with reference to rain-fed maize production

The study assesses onset of rains, cessation of rains, duration of rainy season and seasonal rainfall at different probability levels. Daily rainfall data for 309 stations located in the Free State Province of South Africa were analysed from 1950 to 2008. The cumulative rainfall over 3 consecutive dekads (10-day periods) and cumulative rainfall over 1 dekad were used to determine onset of rains and cessation of rains respectively. Seasonal rainfall was determined as the accumulated rainfall from November to March. Rainbow statistical software was utilised to test for normality and determine probabilities at 20%, 50% and 80% risk levels. The other rainy season characteristics investigated were the probability of onset failure and probability of rainy season duration of less than 50, 100, 120 and 140 days. These rainy season indices were investigated in relation to maize production in the Free State. Rainfall behaviour during the growing period is one of the main limiting factors to rain-fed maize production, consequently influencing household food security. The results show that for onset of rains there is a large spatial variance over the Free State while cessation of rains shows small variance. There is also an east to west progression of onsets while the duration of the rainy season and seasonal rainfall also increased from west to east. Areas of low risk associated with rainy season characteristics are evident over the Thabo Mofutsanyane, eastern Motheo, eastern and northeastern Lejweleputswa and the Fezile Dabi districts, making these areas highly suitable for maize production. By contrast, high-risk areas are in the western and southern parts of the province and thus dryland maize production has low production potential in these areas.

Saroj, an early maturing rice released in Bihar, India

Early maturing rice varieties are predominantly grown in favorable uplands in rice-tobacco and rice-maize sequences. Attitudes of farmers about varieties have subtly changed. Farmers now prefer higher quality grain varieties, mainly as a result of food sufficiency. However, the choice is limited. A new variety, Prabhat, released a few years back with long slender grains, became popular. However, being an early duration variety (100 d), Prabhat’s ripening stage occurs during the rainy period. To develop high-yielding varieties with 115–120-d duration that will mature after cessation of rains and with superior grain quality, several crosses involving Type 3, a pureline selection from crosses using traditional Basmati rice as one of the parents, were made and their progenies evaluated in 1995-96. RAU1400-5-7-9-B-1, derived from Gautam/Type 3 with 115-d duration and long slender grain, was found to be superior and was subsequently evaluated in a multilocation trial. Its yield ranged from 4.2 to 4.5 t ha –1 in a state varietal trial (Table 1) and from 2.9 to 6.0 t ha –1 , with an average of 3.9 t ha –1 (Table 2), in the all-India coordinated trial conducted across the country. The average yield of national check Sasyasree was 4.3 t ha –1 . The test entry RAU1400-5-7-9-B-1, however, was 10 d earlier than the check and has long slender grain, similar to that of Type 3 (length [L] 7.15 mm, breadth [B] 1.73 mm, and L/B 4.15), and is consequently superior to Sasyasree. It has been named Saroj.

Appraisal of yield losses in pearl millet due to downy mildew pathogen (Sclerospora graminicola) in Nigerian Sudan Savanna

Field trails were conducted at the Teaching and Research farm of the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Maiduguri during 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 cropping seasons to assess yield losses due to downy mildew on four pearl millet varieties namely Ex-Borno, SOSAT C-88, ICMV-IS-89102 and LCIC 9702. Split plot design was employed in which the four millet varieties were tested in the main plot, while the sub-plot factor consisted of five varying metalaxyl treatments of 0%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% designed to generate varying incidences of downy mildew. Results showed that incidence of downy mildew increased with increase in days after sowing (DAS) irrespective of percentage metalaxyl treatment and millet varieties. Results of grain yield loss showed that there was an increase in yield loss due to downy mildew with a decrease in the percentage of plants grown from treated seeds in 2002 and 2004. Grain yield was not taken during 2001 – 2003 due to early cessation of rains. The highest yield loss (33.8%) was sustained by ICMV-IS-89102 in 2002, while in 2004 the highest yield loss of about 29.6% was sustained by LCIC 9702. The lowest yield loss was recorded in SOSAT C-88 in the two years. The percentage mean yield loss for 2002 and 2004 indicate that LCIC had the highest yield loss due to downy mildew (31.61%) and the lowest was recorded in SOSAT-C88 (3.6%). There was no yield loss recorded at 100% metalaxyl treated crop while 45.6% of loss was recorded in 0% metalaxyl treated crops. Regression analysis of downy mildew incidence and severity on grain yield show that there was highly significant (P = 0.05) negative linear correlation between downy mildew incidence (r = 0.6272 – 0.9626) and severity (r = 0.7154 – 0.9148) on yield. Downy mildew incidence and severity correlated negatively on grain yield.

Differential Responses of Two Species of Kangaroo Rat (Dipodomys) to Heavy Rains: A Humbling Reappraisal: Fig. 1

Reanalysis of a recently published data set on the responses of 2 species of kangaroo rats to the 1997-1998 El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event revealed an error during data manipulation, and underscored the perils associated with electronic data storage, manipulation, and analyses. Renewed analyses revealed that Dipodomys simulans was not catastrophically impacted by the ENSO event. Both species were negatively impacted by 2 separate rainy periods, and both species appeared to recover rapidly. The rate of demographic recovery may be a function of habitat preferences. Dipodomys stephensi occurs in valley bottoms and recovered numerically only after cessation of rains, whereas D. simulans, which occurs on better-drained habitat in adjacent hill slopes, appeared to initiate demographic recovery half way through the rainy period associated with the 1998 ENSO. In contrast, however, D. simulans was not observed to recover for about 5 months after the rainy period in 2000.

Time of application of farmyard manure and fertilizer nitrogen on the growth, yield and nutrient uptake of dryland wheat

SUMMARYExperiments made for 4 years in the seasonally dry period of the monsoon environment of north-west India showed that the application of farmyard manure (FYM) with the onset of monsoon rains (in early July) was more advantageous for the growth and yield of wheat than its application at the end of the monsoon season in mid-September. Fertilizer N drilled into the soil with the cessation of rains was better utilized by wheat than that applied at sowing in mid-November. A combination of the organic matter and urea was better than their application separately. N, P and K removal by the wheat crop was significantly increased by FYM and urea application. The time of their application influenced the nutrient removal by the crop in the same way as it affected its growth and yield.