Cerulean Warbler Research Articles

Nonbreeding distributions of four declining Nearctic–Neotropical migrants are predicted to contract under future climate and socioeconomic scenarios

ABSTRACT Climate and land use/land cover change are expected to influence the stationary nonbreeding distributions of 4 Nearctic–Neotropical migrant bird species experiencing population declines: Cardellina canadensis (Canada Warbler), Setophaga cerulea (Cerulean Warbler), Vermivora chrysoptera (Golden-winged Warbler), and Hylocichla mustelina (Wood Thrush). Understanding how and where these species’ distributions shift in response to environmental drivers is critical to inform conservation planning in the Neotropics. For each species, we quantified current (2012 to 2021) and projected future (2050) suitable climatic and land use/land cover conditions as components of stationary nonbreeding distributions. Multi-source occurrence data were used in an ensemble modeling approach with covariates from 3 global coupled climate models (CMCC-ESM2, FIO-ESM-2-0, MIROC-ES2L) and 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP5-RCP8.5) to predict distributions in response to varying climatic and land use/land cover conditions. Our findings suggest that distribution contraction, upslope elevational shifts in suitable conditions, and limited shifts in latitude and longitude will occur in 3 of 4 species. Cardellina canadensis and S. cerulea are expected to experience a moderate distribution contraction (7% to 29% and 19% to 43%, respectively), primarily in response to expected temperature changes. The V. chrysoptera distribution was modeled by sex, and females and males were projected to experience a major distribution contraction (56% to 79% loss in suitable conditions for females, 46% to 65% for males), accompanied by shifts in peak densities to higher elevations with minimal changes in the upper elevation limit. Expected changes in precipitation had the greatest effect on V. chrysoptera. Hylocichla mustelina experienced the smallest distribution change, consistent with the species’ flexibility in habitat selection and broader elevational range. We recommend defining priority areas for conservation as those where suitable conditions are expected to remain or arise in the next 25 years. For V. chrysoptera in particular, it is urgent to ensure that mid-elevation forests in Costa Rica and Honduras are adequately managed and protected.

Effects of forest management on private lands in West Virginia on Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea) and the avian community

The USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) supports private lands conservation projects across the United States to benefit imperiled focal wildlife species using conservation practices to restore habitat. The Cerulean Warbler Appalachian Forestland Enhancement Project (CWAFEP) was initiated in 2015 to help stabilize or reverse Cerulean Warbler population declines by using forest management to create or enhance breeding habitat on private lands in Appalachian focal areas. We evaluated Cerulean Warbler occupancy on CWAFEP sites treated using NRCS conservation practices to inform adaptive management strategies. We also assessed associated forest focal species’ occupancy and species richness of avian guilds to evaluate the effects of conservation practice implementation on the avian community. We conducted point count surveys at 194 locations on 21 private properties enrolled in the CWAFEP in West Virginia during May – July 2019 and 2020. We compared occupancy among four treatments: reference, pre-treatment, 1-year post-treatment, and 2 – 4 years post-treatment sites. To examine how vegetation structure changes among treatments affected occupancy, we also collected and included vegetation variables. Cerulean Warbler occupancy estimates were not different among treatments, suggesting that post-treatment study sites surveyed did not achieve their goal of increasing Cerulean Warbler occupancy. Cerulean Warbler occupancy decreased by 91 % as elevation increased from 200 to 800 m and increased by 397 % as sapling cover increased from 0 to 100 %. Occupancy for three forest focal species (Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Eastern Wood-pewee, and Scarlet Tanager) and species richness of four avian guilds also were not different among treatments. Thus, Cerulean Warbler occupancy and selected avian community demographics were not related to recent conservation practice implementation in the short-term (1 – 4 years post-treatment), but there are opportunities to improve NRCS conservation practice implementation for more effective Cerulean Warbler conservation. We suspect that the lack of differences in occupancy and species richness estimates was due to site selection related to ecoregion, small treatment areas, and challenges associated with private lands conservation efforts resulting in insufficient reduction in basal area. If NRCS conservation practices implemented through CWAFEP are going to help reverse Cerulean Warbler population declines, CWAFEP sites need to achieve the recommended basal area range of ∼ 9.2 – 20.7 m 2/ha (40 – 90 ft2/ac) during contract implementation. Our conclusions are critical to updating our knowledge for Cerulean Warbler best management practices and informing future regional conservation implementation.

Advancing Our Understanding of Cerulean Warbler Space Use Through Radio Telemetry

Abstract Space use information can be integral in the creation of effective conservation and management strategies. However, avian territories (defended areas) are studied far more frequently than home ranges (entire use areas), and few studies have compared the two. This is the case for the cerulean warbler Setophaga cerulea, a declining Neotropical migrant songbird. There is an extensive record of cerulean warbler territory estimates, while the home range has only recently been explored. Studies of these space use areas differ in their sampling and estimation techniques and location. Consequently, comparison of both space use areas is difficult. We used radio telemetry to delineate cerulean warbler diurnal space use areas in southern Indiana. Our primary objective was to describe the relationship between the home range and territory. Kernel density home range estimates of sampled adult male cerulean warblers (n = 14, mean ± SE = 2.33 ± 0.29 ha) were significantly larger (0.54 ± 0.18 ha, P = 0.006) than territory estimates of the same group of individuals (n = 14, mean ± SE = 1.79 ± 0.39 ha; P = 0.006). Minimum convex polygon home range estimates of the same group of birds (n = 14, mean ± SE = 3.45 ± 0.55 ha) were also significantly larger (1.38 ± 0.19 ha, P < 0.001) than territory estimates (n = 14, mean ± SE = 2.07 ± 0.58 ha). Additionally, the territory estimates that we report are considerably larger than other published estimates for this species, which were delineated using spot mapping methods. Cerulean warbler home ranges contain territorial and extraterritorial space, and the latter has not been studied in detail. Area and habitat requirements likely vary throughout this species' range, and regional conservation management might benefit from study in peripheral space use areas.

Long-distance dispersal patterns in the Cerulean Warbler: a case study from Indiana

Long-distance dispersal patterns in the Cerulean Warbler: a case study from Indiana

Cerulean Warblers exhibit parallel migration patterns and multiple migratory stopovers within the Central American Isthmus

Abstract The Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) is a declining Nearctic–Neotropical migratory songbird of conservation concern. Implementing full annual cycle conservation strategies to facilitate recovery has been difficult because we know little about the migratory period or strength of migratory connectivity between North American breeding and South American nonbreeding regions. Between 2014 and 2017, we deployed geolocators on 282 males at 14 study sites throughout the species’ range to (1) evaluate the strength and pattern of connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding regions, (2) identify approximate routes and stopover regions, and (3) document migration phenology. We obtained data from 26 birds and observed moderate migratory connectivity overall but documented strong parallel migration for birds breeding in two longitudinally disparate regions. Most (14 of 15; 93%) Appalachian breeders spent the stationary nonbreeding period in the Colombian/Venezuelan Andes, whereas most (5 of 7; 71%) Ozark-breeders spent the stationary nonbreeding period in Peru/Ecuador. The majority of spring migration (62%) was spent in Central America at multiple stopover locations between Panama and southern Mexico. The 2 migratory periods were approximately equal in duration: 38 ± 2 days (SE) in fall and 42 ± 2 days (SE) in spring. Based on the observed connectivity pattern, conservation of Appalachian-breeding populations during the stationary nonbreeding period should focus on forest conservation and restoration in pre-montane/lower montane forests of Colombia and Venezuela, whereas Ozark-breeding population conservation should focus on forest conservation and restoration efforts in Ecuador and Peru. Further conservation efforts are also needed on the breeding grounds, especially for the most sharply declining populations. And finally, conservation of forests used by Cerulean Warblers during stopover periods throughout Central America and southern Mexico, in southeastern United States coastal areas, and in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley will benefit individuals from multiple breeding locations and populations.

Novel nest tree selection by a deciduous forest New World warbler

The Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a Neotropical migrant passerine, inhabits deciduous forests across the eastern and midwestern United States and Canada. Within this broad geographic distribution, Cerulean Warbler populations select specific tree species for nest placement and are known to use a variety of deciduous tree species depending on the population. In southern Indiana, Cerulean Warblers typically nest in white oak (Quercus alba), but we have documented 19 tree species used, all of which are deciduous species. During 2018 and 2019, we discovered 2 instances of Cerulean Warblers nesting in pine trees (Pinaceae) in southern Indiana. Our observations suggest that Cerulean Warblers may in some instances select atypical nest sites as long as specific microhabitat characteristics are present at the nest location.

Failure to advance migratory phenology in response to climate change may pose a significant threat to a declining Nearctic-Neotropical songbird.

Populations of long-distance migrants that breed in seasonal habitats can be significantly impacted by climate change. We examined the migratory and breeding phenologies of the cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a declining long-distance Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that breeds in deciduous forests of Indiana. Our primary objectives were to determine temporal trends in cerulean warbler migratory timing, and to identify climate variables that explain variation in this species' migratory and breeding phenologies. We reviewed trends in cerulean warbler first arrival to Indiana from 1982 to 2019, and compared them to several explanatory climate variables: spring temperature, growing degree days (GDD), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). We also compared the timing of cerulean warbler first lay dates from 2012 to 2019 with the aforementioned climate variables and annual spring precipitation. Cerulean warblers exhibited a minimal advance in first arrival timing (≤4 days in 38 years). Arrival timing was best predicted by GDD and a null model, but trends in GDD indicate that spring warming in Indiana has advanced by a greater margin, approximately 14 days. Climate variables did not predict first lay timing better than a null model. Springtime in Indiana is occurring earlier, but cerulean warblers are advancing their migratory timing to a much smaller degree. This failure to adapt may have a detrimental effect on warbler populations if it results in an asynchronization of important biological timings between them and their prey. Further studies of cerulean warbler breeding and prey phenologies are necessary to determine how climate change is impacting this species' reproductive success.

Does the intrusion of an avian nest predator elicit a change in the behaviour of a canopy-nesting passerine?

Abstract Many studies have shown that nest predators affect their prey indirectly by inducing changes in the behaviour of the prey. Studies suggest that the type and degree of nest defence strategies depends heavily on species, along with nest type and location. One such strategy, nest vigilance, allows individuals to collect information and make informed decisions based on their surroundings. In this study, we simulated the intrusion of a common avian nest predator (blue jay, Cyanocitta cristata) into the territory of nesting cerulean warblers (Setophaga cerulea) and evaluated eight different behavioural variables to determine their response to the nest predator. Female cerulean warblers were more vigilant on their nest when exposed to a potential predator compared to a nest with lower threat of predation. Females exposed to a nest predator increased incubation bout by 109% and brooding bout by 60%. Our data also suggest that male cerulean warblers reduce their provisioning rate during the early nestling stage (−1 feeding/hour) and late nestling stage (−3 feedings/hour), although more data are needed. Modification of incubation bout length and nestling provisioning rate are common strategies employed by songbirds to reduce activity around the nest, by decreasing detection opportunities of visually-oriented nest predators. Currently, the only understanding we have on how cerulean warblers respond to a nest predator is based on observational data. The results of this study provide the first evidence that cerulean warblers are able to identify species that pose a threat to the safety of their nest, and that they modify their behaviour to reduce nest detection by predators. The results of this study provide a better understanding of a relatively unknown aspect of the breeding behaviour of this species. This study is also first to describe how an open-cup, canopy-nesting species responds to an increase in nest predation threat.

Cerulean Warblers in the Ozark region: habitat selection, breeding biology, survival, and space use

Cerulean Warblers in the Ozark region: habitat selection, breeding biology, survival, and space use

Low Breeding-Site Fidelity Suggests Dispersal of Cerulean Warblers

Site fidelity can have significant impacts on population dynamics and may be influenced by both demographic and environmental characteristics, including age, sex, and habitat quality. We examined breeding-site fidelity of Setophaga cerulea (Cerulean Warbler), a small Nearctic–Neotropical migrant that is listed as endangered in Indiana and in decline throughout its range. Our research was part of a long-term demographic study in the research units of the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment, southern Indiana. From 2013 to 2018, we banded 128 Cerulean Warblers, 10.2% of which returned the year following initial capture and banding. We did not find significant differences in return rates between adult males (n = 92) and adult females (n = 19; P = 0.69), novice (second-year, n = 20) and experienced (after-second-year, n = 91; P = 1) birds, or successful (n = 40) and unsuccessful breeders (n = 26; P = 0.39). We have yet to detect a bird banded as a hatch-year subsequently return the following season as a second-year (n = 0/17). Our return rates are likely affected by a combination of mortality between breeding seasons, our ability to detect returning birds, and dispersal between breeding seasons. We encourage other researchers to publish rates of Cerulean Warbler site fidelity across its range for comparison of populations and habitats to determine source/sink dynamics.

Analysis of microhabitat characteristics at roost sites of Cerulean Warblers.

Little information exists on songbird roosting habits and the types of habitats that songbirds select. To better understand a species’ habitat requirements, all aspects of its biology should be studied. The Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea, Wilson) is a Nearctic-Neotropical migrant that is a species of conservation concern across its range. It is one of the fastest declining species of wood-warbler (Parulidae) in North America. Since 2007, a breeding population of Cerulean Warblers has been monitored in southern Indiana, as part of the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment. The Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment is a 100 yr project that studies the effects of different forest management practices on plant and animal communities. During the 2017 breeding season, 10 male Cerulean Warblers were tracked to roost locations. Roost sites selected by male Cerulean Warbler were characterized with less basal area, higher canopy cover, greater grapevine (Vitis spp., L.) presence, less shrubs, steeper slopes, and less white oak (Quercus alba, L.) abundance. With this new knowledge we can incorporate additional features of habitat in the formulation of a management plan for this declining species.

Genomic identification of intergeneric hybrids in New World wood-warblers (Aves: Parulidae)

Abstract The documentation of hybrids between distantly related taxa can illustrate an initial step to explain how genes might move between species that do not exhibit complete reproductive isolation. In birds, some of the most phylogenetically distant hybrid combinations occur between genera. Traditionally, morphological and plumage characters have been used to assign the identity of the parental species of a putative hybrid, although recently, nuclear introns also have been used. Here, we demonstrate how high-throughput short-read DNA sequence data can be used to identify the parentage of a putative intergeneric hybrid, in this case between a blue-winged warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera) and a cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea). This hybrid had mitochondrial DNA of a cerulean warbler, indicating the maternal parent. For hundreds of single nucleotide polymorphisms within six regions of the nuclear genome that differentiate blue-winged warblers and golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera), the hybrid had roughly equal ancestry assignment to blue-winged and cerulean warblers, suggesting a blue-winged warbler as the paternal parent species and demonstrating that this was a first generation (F1) hybrid between these species. Unlike other recently characterized intergeneric warbler hybrids, this individual hybrid learned to song match its maternal parent species, suggesting that it might have been the result of an extra-pair mating and raised in a cerulean warbler nest.

Geolocators reveal migration routes, stopover sites, and nonbreeding dispersion in a population of Cerulean Warblers

AbstractCerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea) are among the fastest declining Nearctic-Neotropical migrant wood-warblers (Parulidae) in North America. Despite ongoing conservation efforts, little is known about their non-breeding distribution. In June 2016-2018, we deployed geolocators (n = 30) on adult male Cerulean Warblers in Indiana, USA, to track annual movements of individuals. Recovered geolocators (n = 4) showed that Cerulean Warblers occurred broadly throughout northern South America. Autumn migration lasted 44-71 days (n = 4), whereas spring migration lasted 37-41 days (n = 3). The average migration distance was 5268 km. During autumn migration, Cerulean Warblers made 1-4 stopovers (i.e., ≥2 days; n = 4) and 1-2 stopovers during spring migration (n = 3). When crossing the Gulf of Mexico during autumn migration, two birds stopped over after crossing, but not beforehand. Two others navigated through the Caribbean rather than crossing the Gulf of Mexico. During spring migration, one individual stopped after crossing, one individual stopped before crossing, and one individual stopped before and after crossing the Gulf of Mexico. No birds migrated through the Caribbean Islands during spring migration. These results represent novel information describing annual movements of individual Cerulean Warblers and will inform conservation efforts for this declining species.

“A cancer on the planet”: Mountaintop Removal and Environmental Crime in Jonathan Franzen’s Freedom

The American novelist Jonathan Franzen has always shown a great interest for the environmental problems, mainly in his masterpiece Freedom (2011) and in the essay “My Bird Problem” (2005). Freedom, which recounts three decades of the Berglund family, sees its main character dealing with the environmental themes for his work. Walter is a lawyer who is actively engaged in environmental causes, but the one that occupies most of the novel, is the support of an organization called “Cerulean Mountain Trust”, which aims at saving the cerulean warblers, a small species of songbird, creating a “birds’ sanctuary” in West Virginia. The honorable cause is actually moved by Vin Haven, a Texan millionaire tycoon who wants to implement an extractive coal strip mining operation and afterwards build the birds’ sanctuary as a remedial move. The aim of this paper is to analyze the novel to extract Franzen’s fictional depiction of actual environmental crimes in order to shed light on harmful practices such as the mountaintop removal.

Radio-tracking reveals insight into survival and dynamic habitat selection of fledgling Cerulean Warblers

Abstract For most bird species, little is known about their ecology and survival between fledging and independence despite the potential for post-fledging survival to be a factor limiting population dynamics. Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea) are a declining migratory species, and full-life-cycle conservation efforts that include the post-fledging period are warranted to attempt to reverse their decline. To understand movement, habitat selection, and survival, we radio-tracked 20 fledglings throughout the dependent post-fledging period. Broods were split by their parents, typically (88%) left parental breeding territories within 12 days, and survivors moved 2.4 ± 0.7 km (mean ± SE) from their nest within the 28.1 ± 1.8 day tracking period. Fledglings were usually observed in the mid-canopy to upper canopy and selected habitat with greater mid-story cover, less basal area, and areas closer to water bodies, compared to available points, when considering data from the entire post-fledgling period. However, habitat selection varied with fledgling age. Young fledglings (0–2 days post-fledging) selected areas with greater sapling cover and less stand basal area, but as fledglings matured, they selected areas farther from canopy gaps with greater mid-story cover. Compared with nesting habitat selected by parents, fledglings used areas with smaller and more numerous trees, fewer canopy gaps, and greater mid-story cover. Survival of the entire period was 48 ± 14% and most (8/10) mortalities occurred within the first 3 days post-fledging. Evidence indicated eastern chipmunks (Tamias striatus) as the most common predator. Providing or retaining large tracts of forest is recommended to prevent the restriction of post-fledging dispersal, and managing forests to maintain a heterogeneous landscape that includes stands with numerous canopy gaps and dense understory (e.g., shelterwood harvests or late seral stage conditions) as well as stands with a dense mid-story (e.g., younger stands and riparian areas) appears to be important for this life stage.

Do social factors explain seasonal variation in dawn song characteristics of paired male Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea)?

ABSTRACT Territorial male birds of many north temperate species sing prolifically before sunrise in a behaviour known as ‘dawn song,’ after which males sing at lower rates, use different song types, or cease singing altogether. From May to July 2017 in southern Indiana, we recorded 100 dawn song performances from 12 paired male Cerulean Warblers (Setophaga cerulea) and we quantified the relative influences of social (breeding stage of the focal pair) and abiotic factors (Julian date and weather) on six characteristics of dawn song. We found that dawn song was influenced by both biotic and abiotic factors, but weather had the most model support. Males were more likely to sing dawn song early in the season, and most males nesting late in the season ceased dawn song altogether. Dawn song start times (in relation to sunrise) varied little over the season, but males ended dawn song earlier, and sang at lower peak rates, as the season progressed. Additionally, males initiated and ended dawn song later on windy and rainy mornings. Multiple factors apparently influence dawn singing behaviour in paired male Cerulean Warblers, yet weather may have a greater effect on dawn song than do Julian date or social behaviour.

Evidence for hybridization between Northern Parula (Setophaga americana) and Cerulean Warbler (S. cerulea)

Hybridization between Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) and Northern Parula (Setophaga americana) has been suggested from field observations at several sites in eastern North America, but without quantitative data to confirm this pairing. Here we present the first mensural and molecular evidence to confirm hybridization of these closely related species. Two suspected hybrids were detected based on atypical songs during the 2014 and 2015 breeding season in Summit County, Ohio, USA. Analysis of tissue samples, morphometric and plumage data showed a combination of Cerulean Warbler and Northern Parula plumage characteristics; the overall appearance resembled a Cerulean Warbler male but with white eye arcs, a weak yellow wash on the breast, and some yellow mantle feathers suggesting Northern Parula parentage. A mitochondrial and 2 nuclear genes were sequenced. Both individuals' mitochondrial sequences were identical to Cerulean Warbler sequences, indicating that both had a Cerulean Warbler dam. Sequences from nuclear genes had a total of 10 heterozygous loci, confirming that they were sired by Northern Parulas. These hybrids, and other reports, come from areas where Northern Parulas are expanding their breeding range into Cerulean Warbler range, suggesting that this hybrid combination may become more common.

Post-fledging habitat use in a declining songbird.

BackgroundFledglings of many mature forest-dependent Neotropical songbirds move from mature forest habitats into areas of thick vegetation such as regenerating clearcuts. The Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea), a Neotropical migratory songbird, is a species of conservation concern across its range and it is listed as endangered in Indiana. This species has declined faster than any other species of wood-warbler in North America. Most prior research on Cerulean Warblers has examined the breeding biology, but there are no data on habitat use by fledgling Cerulean Warblers. Our research aimed to determine where fledgling Cerulean Warblers dispersed after they left their nest, but before they migrated to their wintering grounds.MethodsSince 2007, Cerulean Warbler breeding populations have been monitored in Yellowwood and Morgan–Monroe state forests in southern Indiana as part of a 100-year study called the Hardwood Ecosystem Experiment. To identify habitats used by fledgling Cerulean Warblers, we captured by hand or mist-nets, adult and juvenile Cerulean Warblers once young had fledged from a nest. We attached radio-transmitters to individuals and tracked each bird daily using radio-telemetry. Radio-telemetry data were collected from May to July 2015–2017, and microhabitat data on fledgling locations and random locations were collected during the same years in the month of July.ResultsFledgling presence, when compared to random non-use sites, was positively correlated to presence of grapevines, greater vertical vegetation density, and greater ground and canopy cover. Fledgling presence was negatively correlated with white oak abundance, aspect, basal area, and the abundance of mature trees that Cerulean Warbler adults use for nesting.ConclusionsOur study is the first to demonstrate that Cerulean Warbler fledglings occupy habitats that are characterized by specific habitat components. Fledgling sites were located in areas with high vegetation density, such as clusters of grapevine, which provided cover from predators. Identifying Cerulean Warbler habitats throughout the breeding season can better inform natural resource personnel on how to manage forests to meet the habitat needs of this rapidly declining migratory songbird.

Beyond canaries in coal mines: Co-occurrence of Andean mining concessions and migratory birds

Spatial planning and decision-support tools facilitate the consideration of socioecological tradeoffs associated with extractive activities, but insufficient data resources often limit their application. Focusing on birds and mining concessions in the Northern Andes, we illustrate how publicly-available data can be used in spatial prioritization tools to identify where concessions have the potential to impact 22 species of Neotropical migratory birds. Concessions covered 11% of the land area of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru, and disproportionately occurred within important areas for migratory birds in Colombia and Ecuador, but not Peru. eBird data showed that one-quarter of avian species, including the Olive-sided Flycatcher, Cerulean Warbler, and Canada Warbler, had >10% of their global populations on concession land during the non-breeding season. More worrisome, species of greater conservation importance and with larger population declines (1974–2014) were most likely to co-occur with mining. Our approach highlights how public biodiversity data can be used to predict, avoid, or mitigate potential ecological impacts from extractive activities.

Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) response to operational silviculture in the central Appalachian region

The Cerulean Warbler (Setophaga cerulea) is a species of conservation need, with declines linked in part to forest habitat loss on its breeding grounds. Active management of forests benefit the Cerulean Warbler by creating the complex structural conditions preferred by the species, but further research is needed to determine optimal silvicultural strategies. We quantified and compared the broad-scale influence of timber harvests within central Appalachian hardwood forests on estimated abundance and territory density of Cerulean Warblers. We conducted point counts at seven study areas across three states within the central Appalachian region (West Virginia [n = 4], Kentucky [n = 1], Virginia [n = 2]) and territory mapping at two of the study areas in West Virginia, pre- and post-harvest, for up to five breeding seasons from 2013 to 2017. Our primary objective was to relate change in abundance to topographic and vegetation metrics to evaluate the effectiveness of current Cerulean Warbler habitat management guidelines. We used single-species hierarchical (N-mixture) models to estimate abundance while accounting for detection biases. Pre-harvest mean basal area among study areas was 29.3 m2/ha. Harvesting reduced mean basal area among study areas by 40% (mean 17.2 m2/ha) at harvest interior and harvest edge points. Territory density increased 100% (P = 0.003) from pre-harvest to two years post-harvest. Cerulean Warbler abundance increased with increasing percentage of basal area that comprised tree species preferred for foraging and nesting (i.e., white oak species, sugar maple [Acer saccharum], hickories) or of large diameter trees (≥40.6 cm diameter at breast height). Positive population growth was predicted to occur where these vegetation metrics were >50% of residual basal area. Post-harvest abundance at harvest interior points was greater than at reference points and when accounting for years-post-harvest in modeling abundance, Cerulean Warbler abundance increased at harvest interior and reference points two years post-harvest and subsequently decreased three years post-harvest. Modeled abundance remained the same at harvest edge points. Increases in abundance and territory density were greater in stands with low pre-harvest densities (<2 birds/point or <0.40 territory/ha) of Cerulean Warblers, whereas populations within stands with higher densities pre-harvest had minimal changes in abundance and territory density. Overall, our results indicate that harvests based on the Cerulean Warbler Management Guidelines for Enhancing Breeding Habitat in Appalachian Hardwood Forests, at all available slope positions and aspects where pre-harvest densities are <0.40 territory/ha, may provide breeding habitat for Cerulean Warblers for at least two years post-harvest in the central Appalachian region.