Few studies have assessed the associations of ceramides and sphingomyelins (SMs) with diabetes in humans. We assessed associations of 15 circulating ceramides and SM species with incident diabetes in 2 studies. The analysis included 435 American-Indian participants from the Strong Heart Study (nested case-control design for analyses; mean age: 57 y; 34% male; median time until diabetes 4.3 y for cases) and 1902 participants from the Strong Heart Family Study (prospective design for analyses; mean age: 37 y; 39% male; median 12.5 y of follow-up). Sphingolipid species were measured using stored plasma samples by sequential LC and MS. Using logistic regression and parametric survival models within studies, and an inverse-variance-weighted meta-analysis across studies, we examined associations of 15 ceramides and SM species with incident diabetes. There were 446 cases of incident diabetes across the studies. Higher circulating concentrations of ceramides containing stearic acid (Cer-18), arachidic acid (Cer-20), and behenic acid (Cer-22) were each associated with a higher risk of diabetes. The RRs for incident diabetes per 1 SD of each log ceramide species (μM) were 1.22 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.37) for Cer-18, 1.18 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.31) for Cer-20, and 1.20 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.32) for Cer-22. Although the magnitude of the risk estimates for the association of ceramides containing lignoceric acid (Cer-24) with diabetes was similar to those for Cer-18, Cer-20, and Cer-22 (RR=1.13; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.26), the association was not statistically significant after correction for multiple testing (P=0.007). Ceramides carrying palmitic acid (Cer-16), SMs, glucosyl-ceramides, or a lactosyl-ceramide were not associated with diabetes risk. Higher concentrations of circulating Cer-18, Cer-20, and Cer-22 were associated with a higher risk of developing diabetes in 2 studies of American-Indian adults. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00005134.
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