Central Statistics Agency Research Articles

MODELING LONGITUDINAL FLOOD DATA IN WEST SUMATRA USING THE GENERALIZED ESTIMATING EQUATION (GEE) APPROACH

Flooding is one of the many natural disasters that often hit Indonesia. In July 2023, three areas in West Sumatra experienced floods and landslides which caused damages and even 2 missing victims. Since November 16th, 2023, 8 hamlets in Meranti Village, Landak District, West Sumatra have been inundated by floods which affected families and many public facilities. This research uses data from West Sumatra Province Central Statistics Agency. The data used is 2014, 2018 and 2021. The response variable used is the number of villages/sub-districts experiencing natural disasters according to district/city ( ). The predictor variables used are regional topography , the number of water channels such as rivers, reservoirs, etc. , the number of fields cleared through burning , the number of villages/sub-districts in C excavation area , and the number of dumpsters . This research uses Negative Binomial Regression with the Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) approach. In the Poisson regression test, the QIC value based on Independent Working Correlation Structure (WCS) is with deviance value of , degree of freedom of , and dispersion score of 4,6144. Because the dispersion value is greater than 1, it can be concluded that there is overdispersion. Because there is more than one overdispersion, it is overcome by using negative binomial. The results of parameter estimation using negative binomial regression based on Independent WCS showed that only one variable was significant, which is the number of fields cleared through burning with deviance value of , degrees of freedom of and a QIC of . Negative Binomial regression model that was formed is ). From the two regression models used, namely Poisson and negative binomial, it was found that the negative binomial regression model was the best model because it had the lowest QIC value of .

ANALISIS HARGA PANGAN POKOK TERHADAP KETAHANAN PANGAN DI INDONESIA

Food security ensures that sufficient, high-quality food is accessible to everyone for optimal consumption. Rising food prices can severely impact food security, especially for economically vulnerable groups. This research investigates the relationship between staple food prices and food security in Indonesia, focusing on factors like rice energy intake, egg protein intake, Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) per capita, and regional conditions on Java, Bali, and other islands. Data from all Indonesian provinces for 2018-2020 is analyzed using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression method. The Food Security Index (IKP) comes from the National Food Agency’s Food Security Index Book, and food price data is sourced from the National Strategic Food Price Information Center (PIHPS). Control data such as GRDP per capita is from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), while rice energy and egg protein intake data are from the Ministry of Agriculture’s Food Consumption Directory. The analysis reveals that rising rice prices from 2018 to 2020 significantly negatively affected food security. The study recommends evaluating rice price policies to maintain stability and enhance food accessibility. Similar evaluations for egg prices are also suggested to ensure protein availability for the community.

PENGARUH PERKEMBANGAN TEKNOLOGI, KUALITAS SDM, PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI, DAN INVESTASI TERHADAP TPT

Unemployment is a macro problem that grows due to the imbalance between economic growth and increased employment. East Java Province made various efforts to reduce the open unemployment rate. To overcome the unemployment problem in East Java, several indicators are of concern to be studied, namely technological development, quality of human resources (HR), economic growth, and investment in 2015-2022. The purpose of this study is to findout the factors that can affect TPT in East Java. This study uses panel data, through classical assumption tests to hypothesis tests, with secondary data types coming from the official website of BPS (Central Statistics Agency). The estimation results suggest that technological developments, the quality of human resources, and investment tend to increase the number of TPT in East Java. Meanwhile, economic growth tends to reduce the TPT figure in East Java. This research can be a learning material about unemployment.

ANALISIS DETERMINAN TINGKAT KEMISKINAN PADA MASA PRE-POST PANDEMI COVID-19 DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

The COVID-19 pandemic has wielded a significant economic impact, spanning from the global stage to the national and regional levels. This crisis has led to a slowdown in economic activity in East Java Province, resulting an increase in poverty rates. The pandemic's arrival in 2020 brought about substantial and unprecedented changes to the factors influencing poverty levels, presenting significant challenges for the East Java Provincial Government. The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of the Human Development Index, Population Growth, Economic Growth, and the COVID-19 Pandemic on the poverty rate in the districts/cities of East Java Province. This research employs panel data regression analysis using secondary data from 2017 to 2021 sourced from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The results found that the human development index had a negative and significant effect on poverty levels, economic growth and the COVID-19 pandemic had a positive and significant effect on poverty levels, while population growth was found to have no significant effect on poverty levels in East Java Province.

ANALISIS PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN INVESTASI TERHADAP TINGKAT PENGANGGURAN TERBUKA PROVINSI BALI 2019-2022

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of investment and economic growth on the open unemployment rate in Bali Province in 2019-2022. This research uses quantitative research methods and multiple linear regression analysis methods. The research uses secondary data sourced from the central statistics agency and the investment coordinating agency and panel data methods. The results of the study show that economic growth has a significant and negative effect on the level of open unemployment; This means that an increase in economic growth causes a decrease in the unemployment rate, whereas if economic growth decreases it causes the unemployment rate to decrease. Furthermore, investment has an insignificant and positive effect on the unemployment rate; This means that an increase in the investment value causes the unemployment rate to increase, whereas if there is a decrease in the investment value it causes the unemployment rate to decrease.

Analisis Beban Kerja Dan Kebutuhan Pegawai pada Unit Kerja Kecamatan Rungkut Kota Surabaya

The existence of a country cannot be separated from the existence of it’s population. Population growth in Indonesia continues to increase from year to year in almost every region. The large population causes problems regarding the fulfillment of rights, needs, protection and public services. In the current era, public services have great demands from the public, the public sector is asked to provide excellent service by showing high professionalism. However, the demands and hopes of the community have not been fully realized. Based on data released by the Central Statistics Agency (2024), in 2015-2023 the number of civil servants in Indonesia continued to decline, this was also a factor causing the workload carried out by each employee to increase. Several factors that hinder public services are part of the Government's regulations regarding Bureaucratic Reform. Bureaucratic reform is a need that needs to be fulfilled in ensuring the creation of good governance. In the Rungkut Subdistrict Work Unit, there are complaints that there are not enough employees to carry out the large workload. With these complaints, the author feels it is necessary to carry out an analysis of the workload in the Rungkut District Work Unit by referring to PermenPANRB No. 1 of 2020 concerning Guidelines for Job Analysis and Workload Analysis, so that the results of the workload analysis are expected to provide information regarding the ideal number of employees according to the workload.

Analisis Pengaruh Kemiskinan dan Indeks Pembangunan Manusia Terhadap Stunting di 34 Provinsi di Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the effect of poverty and the human development index (HDI) on stunting in Indonesia. This study is a quantitative descriptive study using secondary data sourced from the Indonesian Nutritional Status Survey Report and the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency. The objects of this study were 34 provinces in Indonesia with observations during 2019 - 2022. The analysis method used was panel data regression analysis with the Fixed Effect Model (FEM) using the Eviews 12 analysis tool. The results of the study showed that there was no effect of poverty on stunting and conversely there was an effect of the Human Development Index (HDI) on stunting in 34 provinces in Indonesia..

Efektivitas Pelayanan Publik Feeder Wira-Wiri Kota Surabaya

The city of Surabaya is the capital of East Java province which is known as the city of heroes and is the second largest metropolitan city with a dense population after the city of Jakarta. According to data from the official website of the East Java Central Statistics Agency in 2023, the city of Surabaya has a population of approximately 2,893,698 people, with a large population this will result in an increase in the number of private vehicles which will affect comfort in urban areas. In connection with this, the Surabaya city government has provided a program that aims to overcome problems in the transportation sector, namely the provision of public transportation called Feeder Wira-Wiri by bringing the concept of orderly, safe and comfortable driving or transportation behavior. The aim of this research is to measure the effectiveness of the Wira-Wiri Feeder Public Transport Service in the City of Surabaya. This research uses a quantitative approach using simple descriptive analysis techniques. The data collection technique in this research uses a questionnaire technique. The population of this research is people who use wira-wiri feeder services with a sample of 100 respondents. This research produced interesting findings, including: 1) The results of respondents' responses to the twelve effectiveness measurement indicators showed that all indicators still had values ​​that indicated they were quite effective. However, of the twelve effectiveness measurement indicators, the value indicating quite high effectiveness is found in the flexibility of adaptation indicator with a percentage of 23% and in the productivity indicator with a percentage of 16%. 2) The overall results of the respondents' responses showed that the Surabaya City wira-wiri feeder public transport service was said to be effective with a percentage of 53%.

Analysis of the Application the Promethee Method in Determining Work Partners at the Central Statistics Agency of Central Aceh Regency

The selection of partners at the Central Statistics Agency of Central Aceh Regency faces challenges because manual selection methods are considered inefficient and inaccurate. Therefore, this study aims to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the selection process by applying the Promethee (Preference Ranking Organization Method for Enrichment Evaluations) method. This method is used as a multi-criteria decision-making technique and is implemented using the Python programming language for automatic and real-time data processing. The data used comes from the 2024 partner recruitment process at the Central Statistics Agency of Central Aceh Regency, consisting of candidates who have met the administrative requirements. The validity of the promethee method is tested through the calculation of an error percentage that reaches 10%, demonstrating the method's ability to filter partners according to the established criteria. In conclusion, the application of the promethee method has been proven to improve the efficiency and accuracy of the partner selection process, where the Python-based system developed can reduce the time and effort required in decision-making while producing more valid and reliable partner recommendations.

Pengaruh Rantai Pasok Halal Terhadap Kinerja Produksi Makanan UMKM

The supply chain is a series of overall processes starting from the management, movement, storage and handling of raw materials, inventory of semi-finished goods, which ends with satisfied customers. Researchers use the R-A theory (Resource-Advantage Theory) to explain internal factors and the role of company performance. Researchers use quantitative research with survey methods with data collection techniques, namely questionnaires. The level of potential for the development of MSMEs in Jember Regency is large and continues to increase based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) Jember Regency also has the largest number of MSMEs in East Java with a total of 647,416. In addition, the market coverage it has is already extensive to various cities and provinces. This is supported by data obtained from media such as Jember radar, detik.com, Tv One, and Kompas Tv. Seeing from these data, its distribution and marketing in Mayang District are areas with the highest production compared to other areas. The population in this study were all Mayang Peanut Cake MSMEs as many as 31 Mayang Peanut Cake MSME business actors in Jember Regency. The results of this study used multiple linear regression analysis by conducting a t-test (partial) and f-test (simultaneous). The results of the analysis indicate that partially the three variables in this study, namely the halal supply chain, HR quality, marketing have a positive and significant influence on production performance. Simultaneously, the three independent variables in this study have a positive and significant influence on the performance of MSME food production.

Analisis Perdagangan di Sulawesi Tenggara

Trade is one of the crucial elements in a country's economy, playing a vital role in supporting regional and national economic growth. Through trade, a region can meet its needs and distribute its production to other areas, both domestically and internationally. Southeast Sulawesi Province, as one of the regions on the island of Sulawesi, has great potential in trade, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors. This province has made a significant contribution to the country's foreign exchange reserves through export and import activities. This study aims to analyze the development of trade in Southeast Sulawesi Province, focusing on the export-import performance and the region's main commodities. The method used is descriptive, utilizing secondary data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS). The results show that in 2024, Southeast Sulawesi experienced a trade surplus, where the value of exports exceeded the value of imports. The largest surplus was recorded in January 2024, amounting to 256.38 million US dollars. Three major commodities contribute significantly to the province's trade, namely cloves with a transaction value of IDR 480.74 billion, cocoa at IDR 248.74 billion, and cashew nuts at IDR 230.75 billion. These three commodities not only serve as flagship products for the local economy but also have a positive impact on the national economy. The findings of this study suggest that with proper management, the trade potential of Southeast Sulawesi can continue to grow, contributing even more to Indonesia's overall economy.

Kausalitas Antara Variabel Makro dan Stunting di Sumatera Barat Periode 2021 -2023

This research intends to look at the causal relationship between stunting, unemployment, poverty, income inequality, human development index in West Sumatra for the period 2021 - 2023. The type of data used is secondary data in the form of panel data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and the Indonesian Nutrition Status Survey from 2021 to 2023 mapping of 19 regencies/cities in West Sumatra. The data analysis used is vector auto regression analysis (VAR) and vector error correction model (VECM). In inductive analysis there are several tests, namely Optimum Lag Test, Model Stability Test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Granger Causality Test (Granger Causality), VECM Estimation, Impulse Response Function (IRF) Analysis, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) The results of this study show that there is a significant relationship between the human development index and income inequality. There is a significant relationship between unemployment and poverty and income inequality significant relationship between stunting and HDI, poverty, income inequality and unemployment.

Pengaruh Nilai Tukar, Inflasi, Produk Domestik Bruto terhadap Ekspor Karet Indonesia Periode 2015 sampai dengan 2022

This study aims to analyze the influence of exchange rate, inflation rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth on Indonesian rubber exports during the period of 2015-2022. The objective of this research is to understand the dynamics of economic factors affecting Indonesian rubber exports and their potential contribution to the national economy. A quantitative research method was employed, utilizing regression analysis to test hypotheses regarding the relationship between the aforementioned variables. Data were obtained from official sources such as Bank Indonesia and the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), encompassing exchange rates, inflation rates, GDP, and rubber export data. The analysis indicates that the exchange rate does not significantly influence Indonesian rubber exports. However, the inflation rate exhibits a significant positive impact on rubber export volume, while GDP growth shows a positive but insignificant influence. Simultaneously, exchange rates, inflation rates, and GDP collectively demonstrate a significant impact on rubber exports. This study underscores the importance of considering the economic factors examined in designing policies and strategies to enhance rubber exports in Indonesia. With a deeper understanding of these factors, it is hoped that better guidance can be provided for economic development in the rubber sector and, consequently, for the national economy.

WELFARE OF THE FISHERMEN COMMUNITY OF SOUTH TABULO VILLAGE, MANANGGU DISTRICT, BOALEMO REGENCY, GORONTALO

South Tabulo Village is one of the coastal areas of Gorontalo where most of the community are fishermen. This research aimed to determine the level of welfare of fishermen in South Tabulo Village, Mananggu District, Boalemo Regency, using Fisherman Exchange Rates (NTN) and modified Central Statistics Agency (BPS) indicators. The research was carried out from July to September 2022. Structured interviews were conducted with 46 respondents. The data obtained was analyzed quantitatively descriptively using two approaches, namely NTN and modification of welfare indicators according to BPS. The results of the research show that based on the NTN analysis, the fishing community in South Tabulo Village, Mananggu District, Boalemo Regency, has a fairly good level of welfare and the potential to save for non-primary needs with a score of 132. Based on the modified BPS welfare indicator, the fishing community is at a medium welfare level with a score of 2.6.

Structural Design of a 10-Story Office Building using the Special Moment Frame System (SMFS) in Padang, West Sumatra

Indonesia is located at the convergence of the Eurasian, Pacific, and Indo-Australian tectonic plates, making it prone to significant earthquakes, such as the Aceh earthquake and tsunami in 2004 with a magnitude of 9.1, and the Padang earthquake in 2009 with a magnitude of 7.6, both known for their severe impacts. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), there were 10,843 earthquakes in 2022. Given this high level of risk, all buildings, especially offices, must be designed to be earthquake-resistant due to high activity and user numbers. The city of Padang is categorized in Seismic Design Category D, indicating a high level of earthquake risk. The construction of a ten-story reinforced concrete building for office use is planned, referring to SNI 1726-2019 on earthquake resistance and SNI 1727-2020 on minimum loads, along with the Special Moment Resisting Frame System (SMRF). Structural analysis and modeling are conducted using ETABS software, with element dimensions based on the initial design. This analysis aims to ensure the building meets earthquake resistance requirements through response spectrum evaluation, including natural periods, inter-story drift, P-Delta effects, and checks for irregularities. Based on internal forces from ETABS V.18, reinforcement designs are prepared for structural elements such as columns, beams, slabs, and shear walls. A design capacity evaluation ensures the safety and optimal performance of the structure during an earthquake.

Dampak TPT, IPM dan Jumlah Penduduk terhadap Melebarnya Ketimpangan Pendapatan antar Daerah di Jawa Timur

The study was conducted to determine the influence of the open unemployment rate (TPT), human development index (HDI), and population on income inequality between districts/cities in East Java in 2018-2023. This study uses secondary data by combining cross-section and time series data. This data was taken from the official website of the BPS (Central Statistics Agency) of East Java Province, and then analyzed using panel data regression techniques by carrying out the t-test, f-test and coefficient of determination. The results show that the open unemployment rate does not effect on income inequality, while the human development index and population have a positive and significant effect on income inequality. Based on the results of this research, it is hoped that the government can carry out equitable economic development in each region and the community is expected to play an active role in the economic development process.

THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EMPLOYEE PERFORMANCE IS REVIEWED FROM ORGANIZATIONAL COMPETENCY AND COMMITMENT THROUGH JOB SATISFACTION AS AN INTERVENING VARIABLE AT THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL AGENCY FOR THE WEST SUMATRA REGION

<span lang="EN-US">The lack of optimal competency, organizational commitment and performance of human resources (HR) as well as excellent service that has not yet been fully realized for users of statistical data at the West Sumatra Regional Central Statistics Agency, encourages researchers to conduct further research on "Effectiveness of Employee Performance in View of Competence And Organizational Commitment Through Job Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable at the West Sumatra Regional Central Statistics Agency." The aim of this research is to analyze the influence of competence and organizational commitment on performance through job satisfaction as an intervening variable for employees of the West Sumatra Regional Central Statistics Agency. The data in this study was collected by distributing questionnaires selected using the proportional random sampling method and then the data was tested using SEM PLS. The results of data processing from 7 hypotheses, the direct and indirect effects obtained are: 1) competence has a positive and significant effect on employee job satisfaction, 2) organizational commitment has a positive and significant effect on employee job satisfaction, 3) competence has a positive and insignificant effect on employee job satisfaction. employee performance, 4) organizational commitment has a positive and significant effect on employee performance, 5) job satisfaction has a positive and significant effect on employee performance, 6) job satisfaction is able to mediate competence on employee performance, and 7) job satisfaction is able to mediate organizational commitment on employee performance.</span>

Analyzing Entertainment Tax Impact on Batu City's Regional Revenue and Taxpayer Compliance Levels

Entertainment tax is one of the sources of revenue for local governments. This study aims to examine the contribution of entertainment tax to Regional Original Revenue (PAD) in Batu City. The research method used is qualitative descriptive using object data at the Batu City Regional Finance Agency. Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Batu City's tax financial statements from 2020 to 2022 are tax revenues for the entertainment sector. In 2020, the contribution reached 12.42%, while in 2021, the contribution decreased to 8.89% and in 2022, the contribution decreased to 12.78%. Although the data has decreased and increased, it shows that the entertainment tax in Batu City has a lack of contribution to the Regional Original Revenue (PAD). The government needs to monitor the potential of taxes and conduct socialization so that this contribution can increase. In order to increase the effectiveness of entertainment tax revenue, the Batu City Regional Revenue Office needs to provide socialization to the public regarding entertainment tax rates and calculation methods.

Correlation of Plantation Area and Palm Oil Production in Sumatra and Kalimantan Regions

This study aims to analyze the correlation between the area of oil palm plantations and oil palm production in Indonesia, especially in the Sumatra and Kalimantan regions which are the centers of oil palm plantation distribution. Data collection using secondary data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), this study aims to determine the relationship between the increase in land area and oil palm plantation production over the past 10 years. This study uses a quantitative method with a correlative approach. Data analysis was carried out using a bivariate correlation Pearson correlation test to determine the positive relationship between plantation area and oil palm production. The results of the analysis showed a significant positive relationship between the land area variable and oil palm production in both the Sumatra and Kalimantan regions, this is indicated by a positive number and a strong correlation of 0.852 for the Sumatra region and very strong, namely 0.996 for the Kalimantan region. In addition, the results of the interpretation of the correlation by looking at Sig. (2-tailed) also show that between the land area variable and production there is a significant correlation, namely 0.002 for the Sumatra region and a value of 0.000 for the Kalimantan region. Although the correlation between land area and production shows a positive value and has a very strong correlation, there are still other factors such as technology, climate, and management practices that also play a role in influencing palm oil production results.

The Dynamics Model of Cross-Regional to Enhance Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

Abstract Economic growth growth is crucial to improve community welfare in the long term. Although Indonesia’s economic growth is on an upward trend, Indonesia must remain vigilant in its relationship with the global world due to the rapidly changing and highly uncertain dynamics. Indonesia’s economic growth is also inseparable from the influence of various provinces’ economic growth, which varies due to the economic dynamics between regions. These dynamics can influence the region’s contribution to national economic growth. Therefore, identifying the important role of the determining factors of economic growth and appropriate policies in dealing with economic dynamics between regions is crucial because sustainable economic growth is also essential for improving community welfare. This study examines the determinants of Indonesia’s economic growth from a regional economic perspective, using a Dynamic Panel Data analysis model with three estimation models. The first model focuses on the primary variables of technological progress, population, and investment. The second model adds the human capital variable, while the third model further incorporates the variables of open economy, economic structure changes, and income inequality. The study utilizes data from the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency, covering 27 provinces from 2015 to 2022. The results indicate that increased technological progress, population, investment, human resources, economic openness, and economic structure changes can increase economic growth, while inequality of income harms economic growth. This research has implications that in creating determinant conditions for conducive economic growth, it needs to be carried out evenly in all provinces in Indonesia.