Predicting the development of adjacent segment disease (ASD) after lumbar spine fusion would help guide preoperative and postoperative therapies to prevent reoperation. We sought to evaluate whether sarcopenia predicts the development of early ASD after transforaminal lumbar interbody fusion (TLIF). Retrospective data were collected from 109 patients who underwent TLIF from 2013 to 2023. Patients older than 18 years who underwent elective posterior midline approach TLIF were included. Patients with prior lumbar instrumented fusions, cases of trauma, central nervous system infection, cancer, or long-construct thoracolumbar deformity corrections and those who lacked sufficient follow-up were excluded. The primary outcome was radiographic ASD development within 3 years of surgery. Psoas volumetric measurements were recorded from the most recent preoperative MRI. Odds ratios were calculated with logistic regression analyses. In 109 patients undergoing elective TLIF, 22 (20.2%) developed ASD within 3 years. Gender, body mass index, and extent of surgery were not associated with ASD development. Multivariate analysis showed left/right psoas cross-sectional area, and psoas:vertebral body ratio (P:VBR) predicted early ASD (P < .0001). Sarcopenia was further categorized as having bilateral P:VBR ≥1 SD below gender mean (T-score -1). Of 18 sarcopenic patients, 15 developed early ASD (83.33%) vs 7 of 91 nonsarcopenic patients (7.69%; P < .0001). Postoperative mismatch between pelvic incidence and lumbar lordosis was predictive of ASD on univariate (P = .0480) but not multivariate analysis. Pelvic tilt and lumbar lordosis postoperatively were not associated with early ASD. Sarcopenia, measured by decreased psoas area and P:VBR, predicts ASD formation within 3 years of surgery. Morphometric analysis of psoas size is a simple tool to identify patients at risk of developing ASD. This information can potentially guide preoperative and postoperative therapies, affect surgical decision making, and effectively counsel patients on risks of reoperation.
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