Central Equatorial Pacific Research Articles

Interannual variation of the number of winter extreme low temperature days in southern China and influencing factors

The interannual variation of the number of winter extreme low temperature days (NELTD) in southern China from 1980 to 2019 is analyzed, and the individual and combined effects of the autumn sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the central equatorial Pacific and Siberian snow cover extent anomaly (SCEA) are investigated. The analysis shows that the anomalous atmospheric circulation in Eurasia is dominated by the meridional dipole pattern with the characteristic of “high north and low south” during the winter with large NELTD in southern China. The autumn SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific influences the winter NELTD mainly through the anomalous atmospheric circulation at the mid–low latitudes while the Siberian SCEA in October acts by affecting that at the mid–high latitudes. A cold SSTA is conducive to strengthening the winter East Asian trough and subtropical jet, as well as abnormal northeasterly wind in most parts of southern China. However, the central equatorial Pacific SSTA has a limited influence on the Ural ridge, polar front jet, and Siberian High at the mid–high latitudes. On the other hand, the Siberian SCEA could result in anomalous atmospheric circulation at the mid–high latitudes, which has a strengthening and supplementing effect on that of SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific. During the winter following the negative SCEA in October, the Ural ridge and Siberian High are strengthened while the polar front jet is weakened. The anomalous atmospheric circulation in Eurasia is dominated by a meridional dipole pattern of “high north and low south”. The comparative analysis reveals that both SSTA and SCEA play an important role in the NELTD in southern China, but they are independent factors and act in different ways. Therefore, the combined effect of autumn SSTA in the central equatorial Pacific and Siberian SCEA could contribute to the prediction of the winter NELTD in southern China.

Balancing Volume, Temperature, and Salinity Budgets During 2014–2018 in the Tropical Pacific Ocean State Estimate

AbstractA state estimate of the tropical Pacific Ocean is used to analyze regional volume, temperature, and salinity budgets during 2014–2018. The simulated ocean state is constrained by both model dynamics and assimilated observations. Comparisons with independent mooring data show that the state estimate is consistent with the observed variability in temperature and velocity. Budgets are analyzed between 5°S and 5°N in the upper 300 m, inside a box defined to represent the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Transports through the faces of this box are quantified to understand the processes responsible for variability in box‐mean properties. Vertical mixing across 300 m is negligible; temperature and salinity tendencies are balanced by surface fluxes and advective divergence, which is decomposed into geostrophic and ageostrophic components. The onset and recovery of the 2015/2016 El Niño event is found to be dominated by anomalous surface fluxes and horizontal advection. During the onset phase, weaker trade winds cause the shallow meridional overturning circulation to slow down, which reduces the poleward transport of heat and leads to upper ocean warming. Anomalous precipitation and advection of fresh water from the western Pacific drive the net freshening of the region. Relaxation from El Niño conditions is dominated by wind‐driven meridional advection at 5°N. As the meridional advection regains strength, Ekman advection efficiently exports the warm, fresh surface water out of the equatorial region. Quantifying the heat and salt transport changes in response to wind variability strengthens our understanding of global ocean heat transport.

Pacific Meridional Mode Does Not Induce Strong Positive SST Anomalies in the Central Equatorial Pacific

Abstract The positive phase of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) is closely related to the onset of El Niño. Previous studies have indicated that positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the central equatorial Pacific (CEP) during the spring and summer of positive PMM years primarily originate from the northeastern tropical Pacific (NETP) via positive wind–evaporation–SST feedback. We review the evolution of PMM and find weak evidence to support such a linkage. Coupled model experiments show that the positive PMM-regressed SSTAs in the NETP only account for ∼24% of those in the CEP from winter to spring, illustrating the principle that correlation does not necessarily mean causality. The strongest positive PMM SSTAs in the NETP and CEP increase El Niño intensity by 1.07°C, whereas that in the NETP alone increase El Niño intensity by 0.69°C. When the composite SSTAs in the NETP during positive PMM years are used, however, the El Niño intensity is increased merely by 0.17°C. The change in the subsurface temperature in the equatorial Pacific is curtailed for the NETP SSTAs to trigger El Niño, while the wind–evaporation–SST feedback plays a less important role. Our results indicate that the impact of PMM on El Niño might be overestimated by ∼55%. Moreover, a comprehensive understanding about the role of the tropical North Pacific on El Niño can be obtained only when the impact from the western North Pacific is considered.

Improved forecast of 2015/16 El Niño event in an experimental coupled seasonal ensemble forecasting system

To improve NOAA’s seasonal forecasting capabilities, a new coupled system within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework is being developed through a community-wide effort led by NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center targeting the configuration of a future operational Seasonal Forecast System (SFS v1). An experimental version of this ensemble seasonal forecasting system is tested on forecasting the strong El Niño of 2015/16. The then-operational systems and NCEP real-time seasonal forecasts (CFSv2) underestimated its strength towards the end of 2015 and beginning of 2016. In addition to perturbing the atmospheric initial conditions, run-time stochastic physics-based perturbations are applied in both atmosphere and ocean components of this new coupled system to represent the model uncertainties. The UFS ensembles are initialized on June 1st, 2015 and run through a 9-month period. Compared to CFSv2, the forecast of Niño 3.4 SST and intra-seasonal zonal windstress for the 2015/16 El Niño in the UFS system are improved, as is the ensemble spread. A cold SST forecast error develops in the central equatorial Pacific, likely from excess evaporative cooling, shallower thermocline, and an excessively strong vertical current shear driven cooling. Near the eastern equatorial Pacific coast, on the other hand, warm surface and cool subsurface errors persist from initialization until the end of the forecast. The results suggest that further improvement in the seasonal forecast may be achieved by a combination of factors, including, but not limited to, improving the coupled system initialization, along with the atmospheric physics.

Combined effect of the solar activity and ENSO on the tropical cyclone genesis frequency in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific

This study analyzes the frequency characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the southeastern part of the western North Pacific (SEWNP) during June–November from 1965 to 2019 and investigates the possible combined effect of the solar activity and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results suggest that TCs generated in the SEWNP have the longest lifetime and greatest strength, and its frequency has apparent interannual and decadal variations, which is jointly affected by the solar activity and ENSO. In El Niño years during declining phases of solar cycle (1–3 years following the solar maximum), positive TC genesis frequency anomalies in the SEWNP are significantly strong and tend to occur in extremes. While the opposite is true for La Niña during ascending phases of solar cycle (1–3 years following the solar minimum). However, there exists no significant feature in the combined effect of La Niña (El Niño) and declining (ascending) phases of solar cycle. When declining (ascending) phases of solar cycle and El Niño (La Niña) are combined, the overlapping effect leads to apparently warmer (colder) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific and colder (warmer) SST anomalies in the western Pacific, so the SST anomalies gradient are stronger. It enhances low-level westerly (easterly) wind anomalies and upper-level easterly (westerly) wind anomalies, which is favorable for the further decrease (increase) of the vertical wind shear in the eastern (most) part of SEWNP. Moreover, the stronger and more westward low-level convergence (divergence) center appears in the Pacific, causing stronger low-level convergent (divergent) flow and upper-level divergent (convergent) flow anomalies, and strengthened (suppressed) ascending movement anomalies in the SEWNP. As a result, the TC genesis frequency in the SEWNP is much higher (lower). Further diagnoses show that absolute vorticity plays a leading role in El Niño years during declining phases of solar cycle, and its contribution is obviously much greater than other environmental factors. It is not perfectly symmetrical in La Niña years during ascending phases of solar cycle when the contribution of absolute vorticity is the greatest, but vertical wind shear is also important.

Causes of the Extreme Drought in Late Summer–Autumn 2019 in Eastern China and Its Future Risk

Abstract Eastern China (EC) suffered an extreme drought with long-lasting duration and record-breaking intensity in late summer–autumn 2019. Our diagnosed results show that the central Pacific (CP) El Niño, in tandem with warm sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region, induces the meridionally elongated cyclonic circulation anomalies stretching from the western North Pacific (WNP) to the Yellow Sea. Its western flank corresponds to overwhelming low-level northerly wind anomalies over EC, which result in deficient moisture and anomalous descent over EC and hence cause the extreme drought in 2019. To investigate the relative contributions of SSTAs over different regions, we performed sensitivity experiments, and analyzed the relationship between extreme drought like what occurred in 2019 (a 2019Drought-like event) and the SSTAs in CMIP6 historical simulations. Modeling evidences reveal that both warm SSTAs over the central equatorial Pacific and the KE region are indispensable for shaping the meridionally elongated cyclone anomaly. Specifically, the cyclone anomaly over the WNP induced by CP El Niño aligns with the cyclone anomaly over the Yellow Sea induced by the warm SSTAs over the KE region, merging into a meridionally stretched cyclone anomaly to the east of EC. Consequently, the northerly anomalies stretch across EC, leading to unfavorable atmospheric conditions and the rainfall deficit there. Projection results show that the occurrence probability of a 2019Drought-like event will increase by 20% (decrease by 40%–50%) under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to present-day climate, indicating the nonlinear response of extreme drought to different emission scenarios and the urgency of carbon emission reduction. Significance Statement An extreme drought hit the Eastern China (EC) region in 2019 and caused tremendous losses. This study proposed that both the 2019 CP El Niño and the warm SST anomalies over the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region induce the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies and the resultant extreme drought. We showed that the typical circulation anomalies induced by central Pacific (CP) El Niño cannot totally explain the meridionally elongated circulation anomalies in 2019. Our modeling evidences confirmed the indispensable role of warm SST anomalies over KE region in the 2019 extreme drought’s formation. The projection results show that extreme drought like that in 2019 will occur more (less) frequently under a high (medium-low) emission scenario compared to modern-day level, indicating the urgency of carbon emission reduction.

Impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on the East Asian Winter Monsoon

AbstractStratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a potential measure to alleviate global warming; however, uncertainties exist in its regional climate impacts. This study investigates the influence of the SAI on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) by analyzing the G6sulfur simulation from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project. Our results show that the SAI intensifies the Siberian high and Aleutian low, enhances the low‐level northerly winds along the coast of East Asia and deepens the East Asian trough during 2080–2099, reversing the weakening of EAWM in high‐emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Comparison between the G6sulfur and SSP5‐8.5 simulations indicates that, the SAI‐induced strong cooling in the central equatorial Pacific excites a poleward‐propagating Rossby wave train and strengthen the EAWM. Meanwhile, the negative vorticity advection in the middle troposphere and the radiative cooling over the Siberian high region caused by SAI also intensify the EAWM.

Why Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation has emerged since the mid-20th century

Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation (PQDO) is one component of the multi-time-scale tropical Pacific decadal variability, with a variability center in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP). PQDO has emerged since the 1950s and has a significant impact on decadal climate variability over Asia and North America and Pacific storms. However, why it has intensified since the 1950s remains unknown. Here we test two competing hypotheses, (1) 11-year solar cycle forcing and (2) internal variability arising from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) asymmetry, by analyzing simulation results, including one fixed-forcing control (CTRL) experiment and four sensitive experiments with millennial spectral solar irradiance (SSI), obtained from the Community Earth System Model–Last Millennium Ensemble modeling project. The four-member ensemble-averaged SSI experiments suggest that 11-year solar irradiance forcing cannot excite PQDO without stratospheric amplification of solar forcing. By analyzing 144 years of observations and the CTRL experiment, we find that the PQDO is nonstationary, and consecutive La Niña-induced decadal variability can boost PQDO in the ECP. El Niño could induce decadal ENSO signals in the NINO3.4 region but not in PQDO regions. The negative phase of PQDO tends to follow the occurrence of multi-year La Niña. We suggest that the emergence of PQDO since the 1950s is mainly due to the increase in multi-year La Niña events.

Weakened Submesoscale Eddies in the Equatorial Pacific Under Greenhouse Warming

AbstractSubmesoscale eddies in the equatorial Pacific induce a pronounced upward heat flux from the subsurface to the surface ocean. Yet their response to greenhouse warming and feedback on the mean‐state change remain unknown. Using a long‐term high‐resolution climate simulation under a high carbon emission scenario, we show that submesoscale eddies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific weaken, leading to an ∼50% reduction in their upward heat flux at the end of the 21st century, compared to its mid‐20th century level. This reduction is caused by an intensified stratification and a weakened cold tongue thermal front associated with a projected El Niño‐like warming pattern. The reduced vertical submesoscale eddy heat flux plays an important role in the anomalous heat budget of the surface layer over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific under greenhouse warming, acting as negative feedback on the El Niño‐like warming pattern.

Two Approaches of the Spring North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Affecting the Following July Precipitation over Central China: The Tropical and Extratropical Pathways

Abstract The spring tripole sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in North Atlantic are an outstanding regional mode of interannual variability. Based on the observed and reanalyzed datasets during 1979–2019, this study reveals the relationship and linking mechanism between the spring tripole North Atlantic SST anomalies and the central China July precipitation (CCJP). Results show that the tripole SST anomalies, especially the warm SST anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the subpolar North Atlantic (SNA), often cause surplus CCJP through the tropical and extratropical pathways. On the one hand, the spring TNA SST warming induces a pan-tropical climate response with the cooling in the central equatorial Pacific and the warming in the Indo-western Pacific until the following July through a series of air–sea interactions, helping maintain an anomalous anticyclone over the northwest Pacific and transport more warm humid flows to central China. On the other hand, the spring TNA and SNA SST warming persist into the following July and then emanate a wave train extending from the SNA throughout the Eurasian continent to East Asia, which induces an anomalous anticyclone over North China with its southeast flank transporting more cold air to central China. The warm humid flows from the south against the cold air from the north are conductive to the local ascending motion, favoring the increased CCJP. Our results highlight both the tropical and extratropical teleconnection pathways of the North Atlantic SST anomalies affecting the CCJP. This suggests an important seasonal predictor of the regional climate. Significance Statement July is the peak rainy month of central China, with heavy precipitation occurring frequently and often causing serious impacts on the local production and livelihood of millions of people. This study finds that the spring tripole sea surface temperature anomalies in North Atlantic induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation can exert significant impacts on the following July precipitation over central China through both the tropical and extratropical pathways. This improves our understanding of the causes of the surplus July precipitation over central China and has important implications for the seasonal predictability of the regional climate.

Rain Impacts on the Surface Atmosphere and Upper Ocean in the Central Equatorial Pacific

Abstract The impacts of rainy days (>24 mm) on the physics of the surface atmosphere and upper ocean are characterized in the central Pacific Ocean (140°–170°W) on the equator, where deep-cycle turbulence substantially influences the sea surface temperature and air–sea heat flux on diurnal and longer time scales. Here, rainfall is relatively weak on average (1–3 mm day−1), and enough rain to substantially alter the diurnal cycle of upper-ocean buoyancy only occurs on the order of once in 100 days, albeit more frequently to the west and during El Niño and boreal winter. Rainy days are associated with multiple systematic changes in the surface atmosphere, but the freshwater and the reduction in daily downwelling shortwave radiation (by ∼50 W m−2) are codominant and drive systematic changes in the ocean during and the day after the rainy day. These two drivers explain ensemble average reductions in the upper-ocean salinity (−0.12 psu at 1 m) and temperature (−0.16°C at 1 m) and increases in buoyancy (+0.0005 m s−2 at 1 m), which are typically confined to a shallow fresh/warm mixing layer on the order of 10 m thick in the daytime. At deeper depths, the intrinsic ocean temperature, salinity, and velocity variability make it challenging to extract an ensemble average response to rainy days in observations, but some examples from observations and large-eddy simulations suggest that rainfall can significantly reduce the vertical extent and heat flux in the deep-cycle turbulence, although the bulk energetics and buoyancy flux of the turbulence are not necessarily modified by rain. Significance Statement Rain significantly impacts social and ecological systems in many ways that are readily apparent in populated areas, but the impacts of rain over the ocean are not as well known. In this paper, sustained in situ observations over decades and highly resolved numerical simulations of ocean turbulence during a few rain events are used to characterize the impacts of rainy days on the surface–atmosphere and upper-ocean physics in the center of action of El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific. These results contribute to broader efforts to observe, understand, and accurately model the surface atmosphere, the upper ocean, and air–sea interaction in the central Pacific and thereby improve long-range weather and climate observations and predictions.

ENSO atmospheric feedbacks under global warming and their relation to mean-state changes

Two atmospheric feedbacks play an important role in the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely the amplifying zonal wind feedback and the damping heat flux feedback. Here we investigate how and why both feedbacks change under global warming in climate models participating in the 5th and 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The amplifying zonal wind feedback over the western equatorial Pacific (WEP) becomes significantly stronger in two third of the models, on average by 12 ± 7% in these models. The heat flux damping feedback over the eastern and central equatorial Pacific (EEP and CEP, respectively) increases as well in nearly all models, with the damping effect increasing on average by 18 ± 11%. The simultaneous strengthening of the two feedbacks can be explained by the stronger warming in the EEP relative to the WEP and the off-equatorial regions, which shifts the rising branch of the Pacific Walker Circulation to the east and increases the mean convection over the CEP. This in turn leads to a stronger vertical wind response during ENSO events over the CEP that strengthens both atmospheric feedbacks. We separate the climate models into sub-ensembles with STRONG and WEAK ENSO atmospheric feedbacks, as 2/3 of the models underestimate both feedbacks under present-day conditions by more than 40%, causing an error compensation in the ENSO dynamics. The biased mean state in WEAK in 20C constrains the ENSO atmospheric feedback projection in 21C, as the models of the WEAK sub-ensemble also have weaker ENSO atmospheric feedbacks in 21C. Further, due to the more realistic dynamics and teleconnections, we postulate that one should have more confidence in the ENSO predictions with models belonging to the STRONG sub-ensemble. Finally, we analyze the relation between ENSO amplitude change and ENSO atmospheric feedback change. We find that models simulating an eastward shift of the zonal wind feedback and increasing precipitation over the EEP during Eastern Pacific El Niño events tend to predict a larger ENSO amplitude in response to global warming.

Dynamic Neuro-Fuzzy Systems for Forecasting El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Using Oceanic and Continental Climate Parameters as Inputs

El Niño Southern Oscillation is one of the significant phenomena that drives global climate variability, showing a relationship with extreme events. Reliable forecasting of ENSO phases can minimize the risks in many critical areas, including water supply, food security, health, and public safety on a global scale. This study develops an ENSO forecasting model using the dynamic evolving neural fuzzy inference system (DENFIS), an artificial intelligence-based data-driven algorithm. To forecast ENSO phases for 1, 2, and 3 months ahead, 42 years (1979–2021) of monthly data of 25 oceanic and continental climatic variables and ENSO-characterizing indices are used. The dataset includes 12 El Niño and 14 La Niña events, of which the latest 2 El Niño and 4 La Niña events are reserved for testing while the remaining data are used for training the model. The potential input variables to the model are short-listed using a cross-correlation analysis. Then a systematic input selection procedure is conducted to identify the best input combinations for the model. The results of this study show that the best performing combination of such climate variables could achieve up to 78.57% accuracy in predicting short-term ENSO phases (up to 3 months ahead). Heat content at 0 to 300 m of central equatorial Pacific shows promising performance in forecasting ENSO phases. Moreover, DENFIS was found to be a reliable tool for forecasting ENSO events using multiple oceanic and continental climate variables.

The Tropical Pacific Annual Cycle and ENSO in PMIP4 Simulations of the Mid‐Holocene

AbstractWe investigate the tropical Pacific annual cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in four mid‐Holocene simulations. Our results show that both ENSO variability and the amplitude of the annual cycle of the tropical Pacific cold tongue are reduced under mid‐Holocene forcing, along with a modified annual cycle in ENSO variance. The weakened annual cycle of the cold tongue is attributed to an ocean dynamical response to westerly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific in boreal spring in addition to a thermodynamic response to local insolation changes in the eastern Pacific. The anomalous westerly winds in boreal spring excite an annual downwelling Kelvin wave that deepens the thermocline and propagates eastward along the equator, reaching the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the development season of ENSO in boreal summer. Upon reaching the eastern Pacific, the downwelling Kelvin wave deepens the near‐surface thermocline, warming the surface ocean and weakening the local ocean‐atmosphere coupling critical to the growth of ENSO events. The westerly wind anomaly is associated with a shift in convection in the western Pacific driven by greater cooling of the Maritime Continent than western Pacific Ocean during the first half of the year (January to June) under tropical insolation forcing. By elucidating a common set of mechanisms responsible for a reduced cold tongue annual cycle and ENSO variability in a diverse range of mid‐Holocene simulations, this work yields important insight into the linkages between the tropical Pacific annual cycle and ENSO that are critical for understanding tropical Pacific climate variability.

Recent Decadal Weakening of the Summertime Rainfall Interannual Variability Over Yellow-Huaihe River Valley Attributable to the Western Pacific Cooling

This study focuses on the interdecadal transition of summer rainfall interannual variability over the Yellow-Huaihe River valley (YHRV). It is found that the interannual variability of summer rainfall over the YHRV becomes significantly weakened after the late 2000s. In the decade before the late 2000s (hereafter P1), the variance is 1.28 mm d−1 and the mean value of interannual variability is 1.49 mm d−1. In the decade after the late 2000s (P2), the variance is 0.35 mm d−1 and the mean value of interannual variability is 0.62 mm d−1. The variance and mean value of summer rainfall interannual variability have considerably decreased by 72.7% and 58.4% since the late 2000s, respectively. The reasons for the aforementioned interdecadal transition are explored. The results show that the interdecadal shift of the East Asian jet stream axis and the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) are two major factors leading to the interdecadal transition of summer rainfall interannual variability over the YHRV. The northward shift of the jet stream axis, which resembles the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern, suppresses the development of summer rainfall over the YHRV. The interannual oscillation of WPSH in P1 is more significant than that in P2, which is consistent with the weakened interannual variability of summer rainfall in P2. Further analysis reveals that the modulation factors responsible for the above changes are El Niño in its decaying phase in the equatorial central eastern Pacific and the warming in the Maritime continent and the western Pacific (WP) in P1. While in P2, the primary modulation factor is La Niña in its developing phase in the equatorial central eastern Pacific. As for the mechanism of the growth of summer rainfall in P1 positive years, the WP warm pool and El Niño in its decaying phase strengthen the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific and induce Hadley circulation, whose ascending branch over the YHRV provides a favorable condition for the development of rainfall. At the same time, the northward propagation of Rossby waves in response to the above SSTA pattern suppresses convective activities over the Northwestern Pacific (NWP), which indirectly intensifies the WPSH. As a result, the PJ pattern is triggered and provides a favorable large-scale circulation condition for the growth of rainfall.

Western to Central Equatorial Pacific Planktic Foraminiferal Fluxes: Implication for the Relationship Between Their Assemblage and Warm Pool Migration from 1999 to 2002

ABSTRACT Time-series sediment trap experiments were carried out in the western to central equatorial Pacific (Sites MT3, MT4, MT5, and MT7) from 1999 to 2002, over the transitional time period from La Niña to El Niño conditions, in order to evaluate temporal variability in planktic foraminiferal fluxes and their assemblages. The foraminiferal test flux follows a trophic gradient from higher fluxes in the Equatorial Upwelling Region (EUR) and lower fluxes in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) region. Globigerinoides ruber commonly dominates in all sites through the experimental period. Trilobatus sacculifer, Globigerinita glutinata, and Neogloboquadrina dutertrei occurred especially in the WPWP. In contrast, Globigerina bulloides and Pulleniatina obliquiloculata characterized the fauna in the EUR. A change in hydrologic conditions from La Niña to El Niño was documented along the sites during the sampled time interval. Simultaneous with an eastward advancement of the WPWP, the EUR retreated to the east. Rapid decreases in the fluxes of G. ruber, G. bulloides, and P. obliquiloculata were recognized immediately after the more oligotrophic WPWP conditions prevailed at Sites MT4, MT5, and MT7. Fluxes of the total planktic foraminifer assemblage increased both in the EUR and in the western side of the WPWP under full El Niño conditions during the second half of 2002. Such increases in test fluxes in the western side of the WPWP were mainly attributed to G. ruber and N. dutertrei, suggesting inputs of eutrophic waters from the northern coastal area of Papua New Guinea. Test fluxes under El Niño conditions in the WPWP were at the same level as those in the EUR, giving rise to strongly increased carbonate fluxes in the western equatorial Pacific.

Model errors of an intermediate model and their effects on realistic predictions of El Niño diversity

AbstractIn the present study, a nonlinear forcing singular vector (NFSV)‐based data assimilation approach is adopted to quantify the model errors of an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and their effects on El Niño predictions. Then, the tendency errors of the NFSV structure (NFSV‐TEs) that represent the combined effect of different kinds of model errors are determined in terms of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly component in the El Niño predictions. The NFSV‐TEs exhibit large values over the eastern equatorial Pacific and on model boundaries, indicating that large model errors exist there. In addition, two dominant NFSV‐TEs are found: one is E‐type that NFSV‐TEs are mostly located in the far eastern Pacific, and the other is the D‐type that presents positive anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EQeast‐TEs) and negative anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific (EQcenter‐TEs). The D‐type NFSV‐TEs often occur during realistic predictions of El Niño events. Simulations using the ICM equipped with the NFSV‐TEs are then implemented to study the effect of NFSV‐TEs on the ENSO predictions. It is shown that the ICM forced by the EQeast‐TEs shows better performance in reducing prediction errors and systematic bias, while the EQcenter‐TEs forcings are superior to the EQeast‐TEs forcings in reproducing the horizontal distribution of the SST anomaly, especially in identifying the difference between the central tropical (CP) and eastern tropical (EP) El Niño. This is because EQcenter‐TEs forcings can adjust not only the wind but also the ocean processes to yield realistic air‐sea conditions favouring CP‐El Niño formulations. Therefore, to make a better prediction of CP‐El Niño, the model uncertainties occurring in the central tropical Pacific should be considered preferentially and finally removed in realistic predictions of El Niño diversity.

Interannual Variations of Rainfall in Late Spring over Southwest China and Associated Sea Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies

Based on rainfall data for the period of 1960–2018 from 382 stations in southwest China and multiple reanalysis datasets, interannual variation of rainfall in late spring over Southwest China and associated sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation anomalies are examined. The first leading mode of late-spring rainfall anomalies displays a uniform-distribution pattern. The second leading mode shows a zonal dipole pattern. The leading mode is related to an atmospheric wave train over mid-high latitudes of Eurasia, with a center of action of atmospheric anomaly over Southwest China. The atmospheric anomalies over Southwest China modulate late-spring rainfall there via modulating vertical motion and water vapor transport. In addition, the leading mode of late-spring rainfall anomalies has a close relation with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. SSTA in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific impacts late-spring rainfall anomalies over Southwest China via modulation of the tropical Walker and Hadley circulation. The second leading mode of late-spring rainfall variation over Southwest China is closely associated with SSTA in the tropical western Pacific and a mid-high latitude wave train. SSTA in the tropical western Pacific and the mid-high latitudes wave train together leads to out-of-phase variation of meridional wind anomalies between western and eastern parts of Southwest China, which further results in a zonal dipole rainfall anomaly over Southwest China.

A Decadal Weakening in the Connection between ENSO and the Following Spring SST over the Northeast Tropical Atlantic after the Mid-1980s

Abstract The north tropical Atlantic (NTA) displays significant sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during the ENSO decaying spring. This study identifies a largely weakened impact of ENSO on the SSTA concentrated over the northeast tropical Atlantic (NETA) after the mid-1980s, while the impacts on the SSTA over the northwest tropical Atlantic (NWTA) are stable during the whole period. Different SST datasets can recognize this weakened connection between ENSO and the NETA SSTA, suggesting the robustness in this decadal variation. The El Niño–related teleconnections shift westward after the mid-1980s, and thus the anomalous southwesterly, leading to the positive NTA SSTA via the wind–evaporation–SST feedbacks, is restricted over the NWTA without extending eastward. As a result, the positive SSTA rises only over the NWTA but is diminished over the NETA. The regime shift in these circulation anomalies is due to the westward shift in the El Niño–induced convection and circulation anomalies from the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) to the central equatorial Pacific (CEP). Further analysis indicates that the intensified zonal SST gradient over the equatorial Pacific leads to a westward shift of Pacific Walker circulation after the mid-1980s. The westward shift of Walker circulation contributes to the convergent circulation anomalies over the CEP and thus results in the El Niño–induced precipitation anomalies concentrated there. Significance Statement Previous studies have indicated a positive connection between ENSO and the succeeding spring SSTA over the north tropical Atlantic (NTA), and this connection tends to be unstable. This study identifies a decadal weakening in the connection between ENSO and the SSTA actually concentrated over the northeast part of tropical Atlantic (NETA) after the mid-1980s. Further analysis indicates that the decadal changes in the ENSO–NETA connection are due to the westward shift in the ENSO-related convection and teleconnections, resulting from the westward shift of Pacific Walker circulation, induced by the intensified zonal SST gradient over the equatorial Pacific after the mid-1980s. The result implies a decadal change in NTA SSTA structure, which may bring different climate anomalies in the surrounding area.

Source and distribution characteristics of 239, 240, 241Pu, 237Np and 134, 137Cs in sediments in the Northwest and Central Equatorial Pacific after the Fukushima nuclear accident

To understand the possible influence of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident on the deep sea, as well as the geochemical behavior and transport of radionuclides, 134Cs, 137Cs, 239, 240Pu, 241Pu, and 237Np were measured in the abyssal sediments of the Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Central Equatorial Pacific (CEP) Ocean. Data on the characteristics of these sediments obtained after the FDNPP accident are extremely rare, especially in the NWP subtropical gyre (NPSG) region. FDNPP-derived radio-Cs (134Cs, 137Cs) arrived at the open sea floor of the NWP before 2018 but was only found in the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region. No FDNPP-derived Pu was detected in the abyssal sediments of the NWP or CEP. Pu in the NWP mainly originated from global fallout and the Pacific Proving Ground (PPG) close-in fallout, except for at station WP1 (39°N in the KOE region), where an abnormal but non-FDNPP-derived Pu signal was detected. Pu in the eastern CEP sediment was less affected by the PPG close-in fallout from the Marshall Islands and was mainly derived from global fallout, with some close-in fallout from the Johnston Atoll test. The KOE region was the area most affected by PPG close-in fallout Pu via Kuroshio transport, while the lowest inventories of 239+240Pu and 237Np were found in the NPSG region due to its oligotrophic environment. The 237Np originated from the same source as Pu, and the latitudinal pattern of 237Np was consistent with that of Pu. Station SS (in the marginal sea of the NWP) contained high 237Np/239Pu atom ratios in the deeper layers of sediment and had a 237Np depth profile opposite that of the 239+240Pu profile, compared to other stations; these differences are mainly attributed to differences in the behaviors of 237Np and 239Pu.