Central England Research Articles

Consistency of climatic changes at different time scales in Central England and Greenland

Characteristic variations in the Greenland isotope temperature data over the last 1000 years and in the meteorological temperature measurements collected from Central England during the past four centuries have been analyzed. We take advantage of the continuous wavelet transform to analyze the simultaneous occurrence of temperature variations of different time scales. We assess the extent to which these phenomena can be compared when examining two different northern hemisphere locations at different time scales. Among the long-term variations, we focus on the cooling at the turn of the 18th century, which occurred slightly later in Greenland than in central England, and the warming observed at present. On the short time scale, the range under study is limited to times of the order of 5-10 years. It has been found that it is on these scales that temperature variations in the two locations are relatively consistent, with a cross-correlation coefficient as high as 0.6 for timescales of the order of 9 years. The main solar activity cycle also falls within the interval of significant correlations. It is shown that despite the absence of direct correlation between temperature and solar activity, the time dependence of the wavelet cross-correlation coefficient of the two temperature series on the scale of 11 years reproduces the long-term variations of solar activity.

Fertilization-induced greenhouse gas emissions partially offset carbon sequestration during afforestation

Newly-planted forests require careful management to ensure the successful establishment of young trees; this can include herbicide application, irrigation, fertilization, or a combination of these treatments. The global rise in nitrogen (N) fertilizer application in managed forest plantations is driven by policies aiming at rapid tree growth and carbon sequestration as a strategy to tackle climate change. However, the impact of N-fertilizer on production and consumption of greenhouse gases (GHG), such as carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4) is poorly understood, particularly when combined with irrigation. As a result, assessing forest GHG balance is key to defining effective climate mitigation strategies through afforestation projects.This study assessed the response of GHG fluxes to irrigation and fertilization on recently afforested lowland arable land in central England, across loamy and sandy loam soils. The application of 180 kg ha−1 of N via an irrigation system, aimed at enhancing wood production and C sequestration, resulted in an increase of CO2 and N2O emissions for both soil types. Particularly, the N2O emission factors (EF; kg N2O/kg N applied) for loamy and sandy loamy soils were 3.9% and 2.1%, respectively, higher than the IPCC default estimate of 1% for agricultural and forest land. Furthermore, both sandy loam and loamy soils showed a distinct transition from being CH4 sinks to sources. Thus, the combined application of irrigation and N-fertilizer had a significant impact on the total Global Warming Potential (GWP), which increased by 34% and 32% for sandy loam and loamy soil, respectively, when compared to their controls. Despite a significant increase in tree growth under fertilized conditions, the offset potential was only partial, highlighting the net contribution to GHG emissions. The outcomes of this study emphasise the potential for significant “carbon-equivalent-debt” from afforestation supported in its early years by irrigation and fertilization.

Enhanced woody biomass production in a mature temperate forest under elevated CO2

Enhanced CO2 assimilation by forests as atmospheric CO2 concentration rises could slow the rate of CO2 increase if the assimilated carbon is allocated to long-lived biomass. Experiments in young tree plantations support a CO2 fertilization effect as atmospheric CO2 continues to increase. Uncertainty exists, however, as to whether older, more mature forests retain the capacity to respond to elevated CO2. Here, aided by tree-ring analysis and canopy laser scanning, we show that a 180-year-old Quercus robur L. woodland in central England increased the production of woody biomass when exposed to free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) for 7 years. Further, elevated CO2 increased exudation of carbon from fine roots into the soil with likely effects on nutrient cycles. The increase in tree growth and allocation to long-lived woody biomass demonstrated here substantiates the major role for mature temperate forests in climate change mitigation.

Effect of antihypertensive deprescribing on hospitalisation and mortality: long-term follow-up of the OPTiMISE randomised controlled trial

Deprescribing of antihypertensive medications is recommended for some older patients with low blood pressure and frailty. The OPTiMISE trial showed that this deprescribing can be achieved with no differences in blood pressure control at 3months compared with usual care. We aimed to examine effects of deprescribing on longer-term hospitalisation and mortality. This randomised controlled trial enrolled participants from 69general practices across central and southern England. Participants aged 80years or older, with systolic blood pressure less than 150mm Hg and who were receiving two or more antihypertensive medications, were randomly assigned (1:1) to antihypertensive medication reduction (removal of one antihypertensive) or usual care. General practitioners and participants were aware of the treatment allocation following randomisation but individuals responsible for analysing the data were masked to the treatment allocation throughout the study. Participants were followed up via their primary and secondary care electronic health records at least 3years after randomisation. The primary outcome was time to all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. Intention-to-treat analyses were done using Cox regression modelling. A per-protocol analysis of the primary outcome was also done, excluding participants from the intervention group who did not reduce treatment or who had medication reinstated during the initial trial 12-week follow-up period. This study is registered with the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT2016-004236-38) and the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN97503221). Between March 20, 2017, and Sept 30, 2018, a total of 569participants were randomly assigned. Of these, 564(99%; intervention=280; control=284) were followed up for a median of 4·0years (IQR 3·7-4·3). Participants had a mean age of 84·8years (SD 3·4) at baseline and 273 (48%) were women. Medication reduction was sustained in 109participants at follow-up (51% of the 213participants alive in the intervention group). Participants in the intervention group had a larger reduction in antihypertensives than the control group (adjusted mean difference -0·35drugs [95% CI -0·52 to -0·18]). Overall, 202 (72%) participants in the intervention group and 218 (77%) participants in the control group experienced hospitalisation or mortality during follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0·93 [95% CI 0·76to 1·12]). There was some evidence that the proportion of participants experiencing the primary outcome in the per-protocol population was lower in the intervention group (aHR 0·80 [0·64to 1·00]). Half of participants sustained medication reduction with no evidence of an increase in all-cause hospitalisation or mortality. These findings suggest that an antihypertensive deprescribing intervention might be safe for people aged 80years or older with controlled blood pressure taking two or more antihypertensives. British Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health and Care Research.

A bee's-eye view of landscape change: differences in diet of 2 Andrena species (Hymenoptera: Andrenidae) between 1943 and 2021.

Declines in pollinating insects have been linked to changes in land cover, affecting the availability of nesting sites and floral resources. Our study is the first analysis of changes in pollen load composition of 2 mining bees, Andrena barbilabris (Kirby) and Andrena flavipes (Panzer) (Hymenoptera: Andrenidae), at the same sites in central England, over 75 years. This provides a unique opportunity to remove spatial variation and review temporal changes in pollen diet within the context of landscape change. We analyzed modern-day pollen load composition for these species and compared it with historical data from the same sites. We then examined potential links between land-use change and the bees' diets. Both bees showed dietary flexibility and lower diet breadth for A. barbilabris, and the bees' foraging strategies appear to have changed. Andrena flavipes collected more pollen taxa in a single load, while A. barbilabris appeared to source pollen from greater distances. Landscape changes at the studied sites have affected the nutritional environment for these bees. Our findings are supported by an existing assessment of floral resources, which found floral diversity has decreased overall in both the habitats used by these bees. However, more research is needed on the nutritional content of pollens used by these bees, both now and historically, to estimate how pollen diversity has changed. The bee's-eye view underlines the importance of understanding how species respond to local changes so that effective conservation strategies can be developed.

Effects of a 10-Week Integrated Curriculum Intervention on Physical Activity, Resting Blood Pressure, Motor Skills, and Well-Being in 6- to 7-Year-Olds.

Integrated curriculum interventions have been suggested as an effective means to increase physical activity (PA) and health. The feasibility of such approaches in children living in deprivation is unknown. This study sought to pilot an integrated curriculum pedometer intervention in children living in deprivation on school-based PA, body fatness, resting blood pressure, motor skills, and well-being. Using a pilot cluster randomized intervention design, children (6-7y old, n = 64) from 2 schools in central England undertook: (1)10-week integrated curriculum intervention or (2)control (regular school-based activity). School-based PA, body fatness, resting blood pressure, motor skills, and well-being were assessed preintervention and postintervention. For the intervention group, PA was higher on school days when children had physical education lessons or there were physically active integrated curriculum activities. Body fatness significantly decreased, and well-being and perceived physical competence increased, pre-post for the intervention group compared with the control group. Accelerometer-derived PA, motor skills, and resting blood pressure were not significantly different pre-post for intervention or control groups. A 10-week integrated curriculum PA intervention is feasible to conduct and can positively impact aspects of health in 6- to 7-year-old children in England.

A 23-year analysis of litigation in orthopedic elbow surgery

BackgroundThe reasons for malpractice litigation in elbow surgery are not well understood. The aim of this study is to report the most frequently litigated surgeries of the elbow and analyze the reasons for litigation and case outcomes. MethodsA retrospective review of the Westlaw legal database was performed, and all federal and state jurisdiction litigation cases involving the elbow from 2000-2023 were queried. Cases were excluded if they did not involve an orthopedic surgeon, nor primary elbow injury or procedure. Cases were reviewed for demographic information, surgical procedure based on reference CPT codes, complications, symptoms, and reasons for litigation. Quantitative information, including settlement and indemnity cost to the defendant orthopedic surgeon, was analyzed. Cases were sub-divided based on United States Census Bureau regions and states to assess regional frequency of litigation with ANOVA tests. ResultsThere were 59 cases meeting inclusion criteria from 2000-2023.The most litigated cases involved were ulnar nerve transposition/release and open reduction and internal fixation of the proximal radius and/or ulna at the elbow. The most litigated complication was claimed nerve damage (46%) and permanent disability (27%). Of the total cases, the most frequently litigated symptoms were nerve damage (46%) and loss of function (37%), while the least frequent was postoperative stiffness (2%). The Pacific region demonstrated the highest litigation rate (20%), while the East South Central, Mountain, and New England regions had the lowest litigation rate (3% each). A favorable verdict was given to the defendant orthopedic surgeon in 59% of the cases. The average loss incurred through settlement was $245,590, while the average indemnity paid through verdict was $523,334. ConclusionOperative fixation of the proximal ulna/radius and ulnar nerve release/transposition are the most litigated procedures of the elbow. Litigation is most associated with nerve injury. Across Census Bureau regions, there is no significant difference in monetary cost incurred through settlements and verdict losses. Although a majority of litigated cases are won by the defending orthopedic surgeon, thorough informed consent and perioperative expectation management may mitigate litigation risk.

Carbon dioxide enrichment affected flower numbers transiently and increased successful post-pollination development stably but without altering final acorn production in mature pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.)

Acorn production in oak (Quercus spp.) shows considerable inter-annual variation, known as masting, which provides a natural defence against seed predators but a highly-variable supply of acorns for uses such as in commercial tree planting each year. Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases have been very widely reported to influence plant growth and seed or fruit size and quantity via the ‘fertilisation effect’ that leads to enhanced photosynthesis. To examine if acorn production in mature woodland communities will be affected by further increase in CO2, the contents of litter traps from a Free Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE) experiment in deciduous woodland in central England were analysed for numbers of flowers and acorns of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at different stages of development and their predation levels under ambient and elevated CO2 concentrations. Inter-annual variation in acorn numbers was considerable and cyclical between 2015 and 2021, with the greatest numbers of mature acorns in 2015, 2017 and 2020 but almost none in 2018. The numbers of flowers, enlarged cups, immature acorns, empty acorn cups, and galls in the litter traps also varied amongst years; comparatively high numbers of enlarged cups were recorded in 2018, suggesting Q. robur at this site is a fruit maturation masting species (i.e., the extent of abortion of pollinated flowers during acorn development affects mature acorn numbers greatly). Raising the atmospheric CO2 concentration by 150 μL L−1, from early 2017, increased the numbers of immature acorns, and all acorn evidence (empty cups + immature acorns + mature acorns) detected in the litter traps compared to ambient controls by 2021, but did not consistently affect the numbers of flowers, enlarged cups, empty cups, or mature acorns. The number of flowers in the elevated CO2 plots’ litter traps was greater in 2018 than 2017, one year after CO2 enrichment began, whereas numbers declined in ambient plots. Enrichment with CO2 also increased the number of oak knopper galls (Andricus quercuscalicis Burgsdorf). We conclude that elevated CO2 increased the occurrence of acorns developing from flowers, but the putative benefit to mature acorn numbers may have been hidden by excessive pre- and/or post-dispersal predation. There was no evidence that elevated CO2 altered masting behaviour.

Trend-attribute forecasting of hourly PM2.5 trends in fifteen cities of Central England applying optimized machine learning feature selection

Recorded particulate matter (PM2.5) hourly trends are compared for fifteen urban recording sites distributed across central England for the period 2018 to 2022. They include 10 urban-background and five urban-traffic (roadside) sites with some located within the same urban area. The sites all show consistent background and peak distributions with mean annual values and standard deviations higher for 2018 and 2019 than for 2020 to 2022. The objective of this study is to demonstrate that trend attributes extracted from hourly recorded univariate PM2.5 trends at these sites can be used to provide reliable short-term hourly predictions and provide valuable insight into the regional variations in the recorded trends. Fifteen trend attributes extracted from the prior 12 h (t-1 to t-12) of recorded PM2.5 data were compiled and used as input to four supervised machine learning models (SML) to forecast PM2.5 concentrations up to 13 h ahead (t0 to t+12). All recording sites delivered forecasts with similar ranges of error levels for specific hours ahead which are consistent with their PM2.5 recorded ranges. Forecasting results for four representative sites are presented in detail using models trained and cross-validated with 2020 and 2021 hourly data to forecast 2021 and 2022 hourly data, respectively. A novel optimized feature selection procedure using a suite of five optimizers is used to improve the efficiency of the forecasting models. The LASSO and support vector regression models generate the best and most generalizable hourly PM2.5 forecasts from trained and validated SML models with mean average error (MAE) of between ∼1 and ∼3 μg/m3 for t0 to t+3 h ahead. A novel overfitting indicator, exploiting the cross-validation mean values, demonstrates that these two models are not affected by overfitting. Forecasts for t+6 to t+12 h forward generate higher MAE values between ∼3 and ∼4 μg/m3 due to their tendency to underestimate some of the extreme PM2.5 peaks. These findings indicate that further model refinements are required to generate more reliable short-term predictions for the t+6 to t+24 h ahead.

Sibling and peer bullying victimization in adolescence: Masculinity, femininity, and the moderating role of sex and popularity.

We investigated whether gender-typed traits (masculinity and femininity) contemporaneously predicted self-reported peer victimization, peer-reported peer victimization, and sibling victimization. We also tested the moderating role of sex and popularity. A sample of 2782 British pupils aged 11-16 from Central England, UK was screened for bullying involvement and popularity using self-report and peer nominations, and a subsample of 704 (52.7% girls) completed a measure of gender-typed traits (masculinity and femininity). Hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that low levels of masculine traits were associated with greater risk of self-reported peer victimization, there were no associations with peer-reported peer victimization, and low levels of feminine traits were associated with greater risk of self-reported sibling victimization. The effects were not moderated by sex, while popularity decreased the risk of self- and peer-reported peer victimization. Bullying prevention interventions could benefit from including the positive facets of feminine and masculine traits.

Movement ecology and minimum density estimates of red foxes in wet grassland habitats used by breeding wading birds

The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a widely distributed generalist meso-predator implicated in declines of wading bird populations. In the wet grassland habitats where waders breed, wildlife managers work to mitigate fox predation risk to waders during the nesting period through lethal and non-lethal control methods. However, limited knowledge on fox movement ecology in these habitats makes it difficult to design effective management strategies. We used GPS telemetry to understand fox home range size, daily activity and movement patterns, and how these metrics may vary among wet grassland sites with different management. We caught and GPS-tagged 35 foxes in the March–June wader nesting period on two wet grassland sites in central southern England; Britford during 2016/17 and Somerley during 2018/19. We estimated home range areas from location data using local convex hulls, and from these estimates we derived the minimum fox density at each site and year. Daily activity patterns and movement behaviour of each fox were obtained using both telemetry and trail camera data. Mean fox home range area at Britford (0.21 km2, SE = 0.025) was significantly smaller than at Somerley (0.68 km2, SE = 0.067), and estimated minimum densities were around four times higher (Britford = 10.6 foxes/km2, Somerley = 2.4 foxes/km2). Foxes were more active and moved faster during twilight and night hours, but both telemetry and camera data indicate they were also active for one-third of daylight hours. Distances moved per day were variable between foxes but generally smaller at Britford. We also found evidence for dispersal during spring, with movements of up to 19 km per day. Home ranges at both wet grassland sites were smaller than comparable sites elsewhere. These indicated foxes were living at exceptionally high densities at Britford, where there is no fox control, increased food availability and where waders no longer breed. Spatio-temporal movement patterns were closely related to home range metrics, with higher levels of fox activity at Somerley, where home ranges were larger. The movements of itinerant and dispersing foxes during the nesting period suggests that lethal control would need to be very intensive to be effective. The likely anthropogenic food subsidy of fox density at Britford suggests that controlling access to similar food resources would help reduce predation pressure on breeding waders.

The Effects of a 6-Week Swimming Intervention on Gross Motor Development in Primary School Children.

(1) Background: This study examines the effects of a 6-week swimming intervention on motor competence in children. (2) Methods: A total of 107 children (n = 52 boys, n = 55 girls) aged 7.8 ± 0.63 years that were recruited from five primary schools in central England participated in this study, undertaking either an aquatic intervention once a week for six weeks or acting as a control group completing their usual physical education program. Participants underwent pre- and post-assessments of general motor competence using the Test of Gross Motor Development, Third Edition (TGMD-3) (a process measure) and a composite of 10 m running sprint time and standing long jump distance (product measures). Aquatic motor competence was assessed via the Aquatic Movement Protocol (AMP). Fear of drowning and swimming opportunities were also assessed by implementing a questionnaire. (3) Results: Following a mixed-model ANOVA, an overall main effect was found from pre (40.05 ± 13.6) to post (48.3 ± 18.6) for TGMD-3 scores (p < 0.05) and pre (38.7 ± 31.7) to post (50.6 ± 36.8) for AMP scores (p = 0.001). A negative significant relationship was found between AMP scores with both fear of water (p = 0.01) and fear of drowning (p < 0.05). A positive significant relationship was found between swimming opportunities and AMP score (p = 0.001). (4) Conclusions: The aquatic-based intervention improves not only aquatic motor competence but also transfers improvements in dryland movement competencies. Future research should look to implement control groupings which do not participate in swimming to further investigate the difference between swimmers and non-swimmers; however, due to swimming being a part of the national curriculum in England, this may not be feasible.

Lived experience of recurrent miscarriage: women and their partners’ experience of subsequent pregnancy and support within an NHS specialist clinic – a qualitative study

ObjectiveThis study aims to describe the lived experiences of couples with a history of recurrent miscarriage in subsequent pregnancies and their perception of clinic support and cytogenetic investigations.DesignA qualitative interview...

First‐Order Transition in Appalachian Orogenic Processes Revealed by Along‐Strike Variation of the Moho Geometry

AbstractAlong‐strike variation of the Laurentian rifted margin and the Appalachian orogen has long been recognized in the geologic record. We investigated the manifestation of this along‐strike variation at depth by generating scattered wavefield migration profiles from four dense seismic arrays deployed across the Appalachian orogen at different latitudes. All profiles exhibit a similar crustal thickness decrease of 15–20 km from the Mesoproterozoic Grenville Province to the Paleozoic Appalachian accreted terranes, but the Moho architecture differs dramatically along strike. The profiles beneath the central and southern Appalachians show a smoothly varying Moho geometry; in contrast, there is an abrupt Moho depth offset beneath the New England Appalachians. This contrast in Moho geometry may result from variations in the Laurentian rifted margin architecture, changes in Taconic orogeny subduction polarity, and greater crustal shortening during the Acadian‐Neoacadian orogeny in southern New England and the Alleghanian orogeny in the central and southern Appalachians. A first‐order along‐strike transition in the behavior of Appalachian orogenic processes is located between the central and New England Appalachians.

A narrative analysis of patients’ experiences of taking medication for secondary prevention of acute myocardial infarction

Abstract Introduction Following an acute myocardial infarction, patients are given a daily regime of five medications to prevent secondary cardiovascular events. However, adherence to these medications has been measured to be 66%1. Sub-optimal adherence leads to increased mortality, morbidity and associated healthcare system costs. There is a lack of qualitative research of this experience for these patients, and current interventions, such as Dossett trays and New Medicines Service interviews are based upon presumed difficulties, such as memory and physical medication issues. Aim The aim of this study was to better understand patient’s experience of taking medication to prevent a further AMI, using a narrative analysis framework to describe their relationship with their medication and healthcare professionals. Methods Following ethical approval (UREC 18/36), participants were recruited with inclusion criteria of adults taking medication following at least one previous episode of AMI. Following signed informed consent, semi-structured interviews were conducted with fifteen people from central and southern England. Interviews were conducted in person, online, or on the telephone and audio recorded. The recordings were transcribed verbatim and organised using NVivo software. A narrative analysis framework was used to organise themes within the whole of each participant’s story and then separated into narrative arcs and organised by theme2. Results The whole story analysis showed the differences between each participant’s story, and that each participant’s story contained varying complicating factors that were personal and specifically important to their lives. The presence of side effects was a complicating factor for most participants. The narrative arc analysis showed that initially, participants felt they began taking medication with little control, feeling compelled to follow their prescriber’s directions and ‘do what they were told’. They understood the benefit to their health, and quickly built routine into their lives. At the next stage, participants worked in collaboration with their prescriber. They had acquired knowledge and social support of non-prescribing professionals, which enabled them to recognise side effects, which they tolerated. Missed doses were viewed as insignificant, happening infrequently and balanced by a history of medication continuity. A crisis point was reached when side effects became unmanageable, where they sought help from their prescriber to change their medication. The desired stage to reach was stability, where participants continued to take medication, and found it simple, unnoticed, fitted into their life and monitored using biometric results. Discussion/Conclusion These participants were non-intentional non-adherers, and described how they successfully added a medication regime into their lives, the details of which could assist patients who find this process more difficult. They described personal and detailed stories, indicating that interventions to assist medication-taking are suited to individual patient work. Themes across all their narratives included the presence of side effects, for which they deferred to their prescriber as decision-maker for their treatment. Non-prescribing healthcare professionals were described as providing social support at later stages, but there is a potential for pharmacists to offer more support at the initial stage where participants felt they lacked control, using services such as the New Medicines Service.

Quantifying CPT cone factors in clays derived from weathered mudstone

The empirical interpretation of cone penetration test (CPT) cone factors ( N k ) can be subject to considerable variability for clays derived from weathered mudstones, leading to significant deviations in the estimation of undrained shear strength ( S u ). This paper presents a comparison of triaxial and CPT data from a site investigation in clays derived from weathered mudstones in central England. Corrected cone factors ( N kt,UU ) were derived from a one-to-one comparison of 94 pairs of unconsolidated, undrained triaxial and CPT data from equivalent depths. The performance of the cone factors was evaluated using a training set (75 pairs) and a test set (19 pairs). A parametric study was used to explore the variability of N kt,UU , quantified using the coefficient of variation (COV Nkt,UU ), for varied separation distance thresholds ( D s ) between individual triaxial and CPT data. The absolute deviation between the laboratory shear strength ( S u(Lab) ) and that predicted from CPT profiles (S u(CPT) ) was not sensitive to N kt,UU values in the range 25 &lt; N kt,UU &lt; 31. The parametric study showed that D s could be increased from 50 to 250 m, to include more data pairs for estimates of N kt,UU , without substantially increasing COV Nkt,UU .

A revision of the ‘coelophysoid-grade’ theropod specimen from the Lower Jurassic of the Isle of Skye (Scotland )

The broadest diversification of early predatory dinosaurs is represented by the ‘coelophysoid-grade’ neotheropods, but their Hettangian–Sinemurian ( c. 191–201 Ma) record is scarce worldwide. More information is needed to shed light on the evolution of this dinosaur group after the end-Triassic mass extinction ( c. 201 Ma). Here we revisit the anatomy and phylogeny of one of these earliest Jurassic neotheropod specimens, an isolated partial tibia from the lower Sinemurian of the Isle of Skye (Scotland) that was previously identified as probably closely related to Liliensternus liliensterni and coelophysids. However, we found that the Skye specimen is positioned in the branch leading to Averostra (Ceratosauria + Tetanurae), in a polytomy with Sarcosaurus woodi from the late Hettangian–lower Sinemurian of central England and a clade composed of Tachiraptor admirabilis and Averostra. The morphology of the Skye specimen is congruent with that of referred specimens of Sarcosaurus woodi , but because it probably represents a skeletally immature specimen, we assign it to cf. Sarcosaurus woodi . The Skye specimen increases the number of averostran-line neotheropod specimens recorded in the Lower Jurassic of Europe and current evidence indicates that these forms, and not coelophysoids, were relatively common in this part of the world at that time. Supplementary material : Character list and dataset for phylogenetic analysis and 3D model of the tibia are available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6863016 Thematic collection: This article is part of the Palaeontology of Scotland collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/topic/collections/palaeontology-of-scotland

Association between ambient temperature and common allergenic pollen and fungal spores: A 52-year analysis in central England, United Kingdom

Exposure to pollen and fungal spores can trigger asthma/allergic symptoms and affect health. Rising temperatures from climate change have been associated with earlier seasons and increasing intensity for some pollen, with weaker evidence for fungal spores. It is unclear whether climate change has resulted in changes in the exposure-response function between temperature and pollen/fungal spore concentrations over time. This study examined associations between temperature and pollen/fungal spores in different time periods and assessed potential adaptation using the longest pollen/fungal spore dataset in existence (52 years). Daily concentrations of pollen (birch and grass) and fungal spores (Cladosporium, Alternaria, Sporobolomyces and Tilletiopsis) collected between April and October from Derby (1970–2005) and Leicester (2006–2021), UK, were analysed. Cumulative seasonal concentrations (seasonal integral) and start-of-season were calculated and linked to seasonal mean temperatures (Tmeans) using generalized additive models. Daily concentrations were evaluated against daily Tmean with distributed lagged nonlinear models. Models were adjusted for precipitation, relative humidity, long-term trend and location. Seasonal and daily analyses were respectively stratified into two periods (1970–1995, 1997–2021) and five decades. Warmer seasonal Tmeans were associated with higher seasonal integral for birch, Cladosporium and Alternaria, as well as earlier start-of-season for birch, grass and Cladosporium. There were indications of changing associations with temperature in the recent decades. A warmer January was associated with higher seasonal integral for grass in 1997–2021, but not in 1970–1995. In 2000–2021, daily concentrations of birch pollen tended to remain at higher levels, vs. decrease during 1990s, when Tmean was between 13 and 15 °C. Our study suggests higher temperatures experienced in recent decades are associated with higher overall abundance of some pollen/fungal spores, which may increase future disease burdens of allergies. The changing responses of some pollen to higher temperatures over time may indicate adaptation to increasing temperatures and should be considered in climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Difficult-to-treat asthma patients from ethnic minority groups in central England are at an enhanced risk of house dust mite sensitisation.

House dust mite (HDM) is the most common sensitising allergen in asthma. Ethnic minority groups (EMGs) in the UK are more likely to live in deprived conditionings with a greater exposure to HDM and other aero-allergens. To compare the ethnicity-based patterns of sensitisation to aero-allergens and the impact of ethnicity on clinical outcomes in patients with difficult-to-treat asthma (DTA). Data of patients with DTA were extracted from the registry of the Birmingham Regional Severe Asthma Service (BRSAS), which have a catchment population of 7.3million from Central England. Patients from White and EMG backgrounds were compared in terms of the prevalence of atopy, total serum immunoglobulin E (IgE), specific serum IgE (ssIgE) and asthma related clinical outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to explore ethnicity-based risk factors for HDM sensitisation. A total of 1272 patients [White 1016 (79.9%), EMG 256 (20.1%) EMG] with a median age of 51years (range 16-97) were included in the analysis. Patients from EMG were more likely (64%) to reside in the worst scale of index of multiple deprivation (IMD) than the White patients (25.5%), p<0.0001. Positive HDM sensitisation was more prevalent in the EMG than in the White group [142/216 (66%) versus 375/842 (45%), p<0.0001]. The median HDM ssIgE level was higher in the EMG than in the White group [3.0 KUA/L (IQR 0.06, 11.5) versus 0.1 (0.01, 3.0), p<0.000001]. The odds ratio for positive sensitisation to HDM conveyed by the EMG status was 2.61 (95%CI, 1.8-3.8), p<0.0001. Compared to the White group, the EMG had higher median total serum IgE [326 KU/L (115, 971) versus 114 (29.8, 434.8), p<0.000001], higher blood eosinophil count (0.36×109 (0.18, 0.62) versus 0.23 (0.1,0.47), p<0.000001), were marginally more atopic (79.2% vs. 75.6%, p=0.098) and were less likely to being on maintenance oral corticosteroids (22% vs. 39.7%, p<0.0001). In this DTA cohort, positive HDM sensitisation was greater amongst the EMG than the White patients. The EMG status was a significant risk factor for HDM sensitisation.

Long‐term changes in the frequency of exceptionally cold and warm months and seasons at selected stations in Europe in the early instrumental period

AbstractExtreme thermal conditions have been known for a long time as is evidenced by the oldest preserved historical accounts referring to weather. However, direct data, that is, air temperature measurements, which began in Europe in the 17th century, are the only reliable source of information. They provide insight into how climate evolved over the characteristic period of the climate timeline known as the Little Ice Age. This study focuses on extreme climatic phenomena, referred to here as exceptionally cold (EC) and exceptionally warm (EW) months and seasons that occurred in the early instrumental period (until 1830). The research is based on average monthly air temperature values (of different lengths) from five meteorological stations in Europe. The Central England Temperature series (CET) offers the longest series that spans 172 years whereas Padua has the shortest, 57 years. Consequently, the year 1659, which is the start date of the Central England Temperature series, marks the beginning of the study period for the research presented in this article. Thermally anomalous periods are identified based on the standard deviation of the average temperature from the corresponding long‐term average (1831–2020). The highlights of the study include the identification of the pronounced prevalence at all five stations of EC months and seasons when compared to EW months and seasons, especially in Western Europe (CET) during the Maunder Minimum. The study also finds a lack of synchronicity in the timing of the anomalous periods under investigation in the different parts of Europe.