Central Desert Research Articles

Development of a heat stress exposure metric – Impact of intensity and duration of exposure to heat on physiological thermal regulation

An innovative bioclimatic metric based on the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) is developed to quantify human thermal physiological heat stress. The Heat Stress Exposure (HSE) metric includes both duration and intensity dimensions of heat exposure, and in this paper it is applied to the Sydney Australia climatology. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) were used to spatially represent and visualize Sydney's HSE. The first stage of the analysis collated observed meteorological data from 10 weather stations across the Sydney metropolitan region, extending from coastal Sydney to approximately 50 km inland in 2017. The second stage of the analysis integrated the radiative meteorological data into estimates of hourly Mean Radiant Temperature which were then applied to UTCI. In the final stage, a threshold UTCI value of 26 °C was selected for the calculation of HSE, which was then cumulated to represent the duration of heat exposure throughout the year. The difference between each UTCI hourly reading and the 26 °C threshold defined a UTCI exceedance (ΔUTCI; °C). The cumulative total of all ΔUTCI throughout the year defined ∑ΔUTCI in units of degree hours (°C.hr), thereby capturing both intensity and duration of exposure to heat stress. Weather systems driving westerly winds from the Australian continent's central deserts brought the highest HSE to Sydney's inland western suburbs, with values ranging between 4,000–6,000 ∑ΔUTCI (°C.hr). Coastal eastern Sydney experienced considerably lower HSE values ranging from 1,600–3,000 ∑ΔUTCI (°C.hr), reflecting the moderating influences of sea breezes and evaporative cooling.

Sampling Ceremony: Hip-hop Workshops and Intergenerational Cultural Production in the Central Australian Desert

Hip-hop workshops have become a key feature of youth-focused community arts programmes in regional and remote Indigenous communities in Australia over the past twenty years with music videos being a primary output. While literature on Indigenous hip-hop in Australia has demonstrated that rap music provides a powerful medium of expression for representing identity, there has been little research on hip-hop workshops. In the early 2000s Indigenous hip-hop artists, many of whom co-facilitated the first hip-hop workshops, demonstrated an understanding of hip-hop as a new form of ceremony. This paper makes a case for hip-hop-as-ceremony as a framework for understanding what Indigenous communities might be utilising hip-hop workshops for, moving beyond lyrics and images to the collective public performance events that music videos depict. This article analyses two music videos produced through hip-hop workshops in the central Australian desert to point to the possibilities hip-hop culture provides for maintaining ceremonial practice.

An investigation of the flake-based lithic tool morphology using 3D geometric morphometrics: A case study from the Mirak Paleolithic Site, Iran

Today archaeologists are increasingly seeking more objective methods for analyzing archaeological remains to obtain the most reliable results possible. To achieve this goal, methods developed in other disciplines are being introduced gradually into archaeology and their effectiveness is being tested; this is particularly the case for archaeological analysis of lithic artifacts. One such method, borrowed from evolutionary biology that has become increasingly widespread in stone tool archaeology is geometric morphometrics. This method can be used to generate information regarding inter- and intra-assemblage morphological variability in lithic artifacts and to inspect the mechanisms and causes driving this variation. In this paper, 3D landmark-based geometric morphometrics is used to study diachronic changes in the morphology of lithic tools. This study concerns an assemblage of flaked lithic tools from the open-air Paleolithic site of Mirak, located along the northern fringe of the Iranian Central Desert. These lithics belong to two archaeological layers. Layer 2, which features a combination of Middle and Upper Paleolithic lithic materials (ca. 33–26 kya), and Layer 3, which consists mainly of late Middle Paleolithic materials (ca. 55–43 kya). These layers belong to Marine Isotope Stage 3, a time of rapid fluctuation in climatic and environmental conditions at the global and regional scales. The aim here is to investigate whether there are any significant morphological differences between the two sets of aforementioned lithic assemblages, and subsequently, to suggest possible causes of the stability or variability in this morphology. The results of the analysis indicate that the general morphology of the flake-based lithic tools is not significantly different between the two layers. To inspect the rationale for such diachronic stability, the morphology of the original lithic raw materials and population dynamics are studied. It seems that at least part of the answer lies in the flow of information and cultural transmission related to the presence of metapopulations in the Iranian Central Plateau during Marine Isotope Stage 3.

Genomic prediction for growth using a low-density SNP panel in dromedary camels

For thousands of years, camels have produced meat, milk, and fiber in harsh desert conditions. For a sustainable development to provide protein resources from desert areas, it is necessary to pay attention to genetic improvement in camel breeding. By using genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) method we produced over 14,500 genome wide markers to conduct a genome- wide association study (GWAS) for investigating the birth weight, daily gain, and body weight of 96 dromedaries in the Iranian central desert. A total of 99 SNPs were associated with birth weight, daily gain, and body weight (p-value < 0.002). Genomic breeding values (GEBVs) were estimated with the BGLR package using (i) all 14,522 SNPs and (ii) the 99 SNPs by GWAS. Twenty-eight SNPs were associated with birth weight, daily gain, and body weight (p-value < 0.001). Annotation of the genomic region (s) within ± 100 kb of the associated SNPs facilitated prediction of 36 candidate genes. The accuracy of GEBVs was more than 0.65 based on all 14,522 SNPs, but the regression coefficients for birth weight, daily gain, and body weight were 0.39, 0.20, and 0.23, respectively. Because of low sample size, the GEBVs were predicted using the associated SNPs from GWAS. The accuracy of GEBVs based on the 99 associated SNPs was 0.62, 0.82, and 0.57 for birth weight, daily gain, and body weight. This report is the first GWAS using GBS on dromedary camels and identifies markers associated with growth traits that could help to plan breeding program to genetic improvement. Further researches using larger sample size and collaboration of the camel farmers and more profound understanding will permit verification of the associated SNPs identified in this project. The preliminary results of study show that genomic selection could be the appropriate way to genetic improvement of body weight in dromedary camels, which is challenging due to a long generation interval, seasonal reproduction, and lack of records and pedigrees.

Spectral and synoptic analysis of Haboob in Tehran, Iran

On 2 June 2014, a Haboob dust storm occurred in Tehran, which lasted less than 2 h, caused severe damages to the properties and involved loss of human life. This paper describes the behavior of this Haboob dust storm, by analyzing of metrological satellites data, as well as assessing the mesoscale and microscale patterns that led to the occurrence of the dust. A dust detection scheme was developed to monitor the dust formation using the Infrared (IR) channels of the Spinning-Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI), carried on board MSG satellites. Restrictive thresholds were placed on the individual components to maximize detection success, and to minimize the misidentification of dust. The results indicated cold and strong downdrafts along with the cold front activity during the maximum temperature over the central hot desert caused a strengthened and intensified wind velocity that led to a strong Haboob in Tehran province. The synoptic analysis indicated that a low-pressure system stretching from the southeast of Iran to the northwest of Iran and Iraq was the dominant feature, despite the presence of a weak high-pressure in the center of Iran. The satellite analysis indicates an extreme dustiness discernible in the southwest of Tehran following the formation of a convective storm; however, uncertainty in dust identification increases as the IR dust signal weakens because of underlying dust cloud beneath the thick convective clouds. The analysis of could physical properties reveals the formation of a convective storm after dramatically decrease in cloud top temperature (CTT) and cloud top pressure (CTP), and increasing the cloud optical depth (COT) which led to development of an overshooting cold cloud over Tehran province before dust formation.

The Productive Landscape in the Desert Margin for the Sustainable Development of Rural Settlements: An Innovative Greenbelt for Maranjab Desert in Iran

About two billion rural individuals depend on agricultural systems associated with a high amount of risk and low levels of yield in the drylands of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Human activities, climate change and natural extreme events are the most important drivers of desertification. This phenomenon has occurred in many regions of Iran, particularly in the villages in the periphery of the central desert of Iran, and has made living in the oases so difficult that the number of abandoned villages is increasing every year. Land abandonment and land-use change increase the risk of desertification. This study aims to respond to the research questions: (i) does the planning of green infrastructures on the desert margin affect the distribution and balance of the population? (ii) how should the green belt be designed to have the greatest impact on counteracting desertification?, and (iii) does the design of productive landscape provide the solution? Through a wide-ranging and comprehensive approach, this study develops different scenarios for designing a new form of green belt in order to sustainably manage the issues of environmental protection, agricultural tradition preservation and desertification counteraction. This study proposes a new-traditional greenbelt including small low-cost and low-tech projects adapted to rural scale.

Isolation and Characterization of Methylated Flavones from Artemisia kermanensis.

Background:Artemisia kermanensis Podl. is a green aromatic perennial shrub that belongs to the family Asteraceae and it grows widely in central deserts and south-eastern mountains of Iran such as Taftan Mountain in Sistan and Baluchestan Province. Artemisia species have been used traditionally as a remedy for various feverous diseases, including malaria, treatment of colds, infections, parasites, inflammations of the liver, as well as dyspepsia, diabetes, hypertension, and so many other conditions.Materials and Methods:Air-dried A. kermanensis extraction from all parts of the plant was done using different organic solvents. The methanolic extract was selected for isolation of flavonoids, using thin-layer chromatography. The chemical structures of the isolated compounds were determined based on analysis of mass and nuclear magnetic resonance spectra.Results:Two flavone aglycones were isolated and identified for the first time from this plant's methanolic extract, including 5,7-dihydroxy-3',4',6-trimethoxyflavone (eupatilin) and 5,7,3'-Trihydroxy-6,4',5'-trimethoxyflavone.Conclusions:Eupatilin is known for its anticancer, antioxidant, and anti-inflammatory activities. In future researches on A. kermanensis, as a rich source of these flavone compounds, it is wise to investigate for the proven eupatilin's biological activities that have been mentioned.

Review of Aboriginal astronomy and navigation: A Western Australian focus

AbstractThis review of Aboriginal astronomy and navigation brings together accounts from widely dispersed places in Western Australia, from Noongar Country in the south-west, through to the Eastern Goldfields, the Pilbara, the Kimberley and the Central Deserts. Information for this review has been taken from the literature and non-conventional sources, including artist statements of paintings. The intention for the review is that the scope is traditional, pre-European settlement understandings, but post-settlement records of oral accounts, and later articulation by Aboriginal peoples, are necessarily relied upon. In large part, the Western Australian accounts reflect understandings reported for other states. For example, star maps were used for teaching routes on the ground, but available accounts do not evidence that star maps were used in real-time navigation. The narratives or dreamings that differ most from those of other states explain creation of night-sky objects and landforms on Earth, events including thunder, or they address social behaviour.

Spatiotemporal and physiographic relationship between MODIS land surface temperature and air temperature over Iran

Land cover and topography influence land surface temperature (LST). The purpose of this study was to determine whether there is a correlation between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST and air temperature (AT) under various physiographic conditions in Iran. A novel method was developed to determine the match-up time between the LST of the Terra/Aqua overpass and the AT observation at an appropriate distance. Numerous statistical metrics were used, including the correlation coefficient (R), root mean square differences (RMSD), and relative root mean square differences (RRMSD). The findings indicate that LST and AT have a strong correlation coefficient (0.7-0.9) in Iran. Intra-annual changes in R, on the other hand, show higher values during the cold months than during the warmer months. The differences between LST and AT were lowest at the coasts and highest in the central and northwestern deserts of Iran according to the spatial distribution of the RRMSD. The RRMSD for MODIS Terra night LST (LSTTN) was lower than for MODIS Aqua day LST (LSTAD). Seasonal differences between LST and AT were observed, particularly at higher elevations and slopes. The most important factors that result in a higher correlation and a smaller difference between LST and AT are surface moisture, vegetation density, and land cover dynamics (LCD). The LST/AT correlation and difference can also be affected by the daily and intra-annual temperature cycle. The findings can be applied to further studies, e.g. when estimating AT from LST in deserts and at high elevations.

Possibilities of organizing agro-touristic routes in the Fergana Valley, Uzbekistan

The Fergana Valley, which is rich in nature and is known for its temperate climate, is characterized by the fact that it combines many aspects of the country’s agritourism. As a result of our research, we have identified the Fergana Valley as a separate agro-tourist area. The region is rich in high mountains, medium mountains, low mountains (hills), central desert plains, irrigated (anthropogenic) plains, and a wide range of agrotouristic potential and opportunities. The creation and development of new tourist destinations is great importance to increase the economic potential of the country. This article describes the possibilities of agrotourism of the Fergana valley. The purpose of the work is an identification of agro-tours and organization of agro-tourist routes on the basis of the analysis of agro-tourism potential and opportunities of Fergana agro-tourist region.

Determining the source of dust storms with use of coupling WRF and HYSPLIT models: A case study of Yazd province in central desert of Iran

Dust storm, which has a significant impact on regional air quality, is one of the most hazardous meteorological phenomena in the arid areas. Yazd province is one of the arid areas in Iran that is exposed to dust storms. In this study, two cases of dust storms of Yazd province are studied with the use of coupling numerical models and aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS data. We investigated synoptic condition of such dust storms that were formed downstream of upper level through in the area by focusing on two storms, on May 24 and 25, 2014. For this purpose, a dynamic coupling of this case is done using WRF output the HYSPLIT model. This model was implemented to investigate the sources of the dust storms by calculating the back trajectories from the receptor sites. The trajectories indicated that the first and the second case storms occurred in the northeast and the south of Yazd respectively. These results also showed a good agreement with MODIS aerosol optical depth data and HYSPLIT back trajectories paths.

Spatio-temporal analysis of dry and wet periods in Iran by using Global Precipitation Climatology Center-Drought Index (GPCC-DI)

In this study, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts in Iran, including severity, duration, frequency, and extent, were studied using the GPCC-DI, in a 68-year period from 1952 to 2019. To display and analyze these features, time trend components, intensity, duration, and area diagrams, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Kriging geostatistical method were used. The result of plotting intensity-duration-frequency maps shows an increasing trend in regional drought severity and spread. It was also found that the most severe droughts occurred in the 12- and 24-month periods from 2000 onward. Mann-Kendall test results also show that significant increases in droughts occurred in the central desert basins of Hamoon basin and south Baluchistan in the southeastern Iran. In addition, decrease in occurrences of dry and wet periods happened in the western, northwestern, and coastal regions of the Caspian Sea. The pattern of spatial variations of drought severity indicated two major drought foci in southeast and central Iran. The number of drought centers in Iran has also increased over time. The results of the analysis of the time trends of dry and wet periods point to the occurrence of continuous droughts in 12- and 24-month periods.

Comparative evaluation of impacts of climate change and droughts on river flow vulnerability in Iran

Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate change. This study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in three basins with diverse climates in Iran. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and precipitation effectiveness variables (PEVs) extracted from the conjunctive precipitation effectiveness index (CPEI) were used to analyze the drought severity. To investigate hydrological droughts in the basins, the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the streamflow drought index (SDI) were calculated and compared. The effects of droughts were assessed under various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Changes in the number of wet days and precipitation depth restricted hydrological droughts, whereas an increasing number of dry days amplified their severity. The projected increases in dry days and precipitation over short durations throughout a year under future climate scenarios would produce changes in drought and flood periods and ultimately impact the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts. Under RCP 4.5, an increase in the frequencies of moderate and severe meteorological/hydrological droughts would further affect the Central Desert Basin. Under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, the frequencies of severe and extreme droughts would increase, but the drought area would be smaller than that under RCP 4.5, demonstrating less severe drought conditions. Due to the shallow depths of most rivers, SDI was found to be more feasible than NDWI in detecting hydrological droughts.

Investigation the Interaction of Tunnel Structure and Soil in Encountering Earthquake

Importance of subterranean structures in no secret to anyone and tunnels are one of the important factors indicating development of countries which are employed for various applications including transportation, water and waste water conveyance and also as a reservoir of various materials, urban subways and …. Established for water providing with the central salt desert, Golah water conveyance tunnel in the length of 10km has been bored employing the full section boring device and it cover is segmental. Tunnel performance will continue perfectly provided that its coating segment can show strength and stability all during their life span and remain in the allowable modifications. Tunnel structure is influenced by the forces resulting from creep and there is a crushed zone between the stony and coating regions. This model has been studied for the MDL and MCL danger levels and a time history analysis has been done to study the tunnel behavior. Intended responses include maximum tunnel diameter in each zone and plastic strain of the concrete as well as damage parameter proportional to the plastic strain. Obtained results revealed that in the second and third zones structure segments with a thickness of 25cm have been modified beyond the maximum limit and fail and that this structure has suffered unrepeatable damage at the MDL danger level and that the highest damages were relevant to the third zone.

Mineralogical and geochemical studies of gabbroids in the East Central Desert, Egypt

Relevance of the work. The study area is limited to the Central-Eastern Desert of Egypt, represented by various rock units in addition to the gabbro rock containing iron oxides. Research Objective. This work is devoted to detailed studies of the geology of gabbroid rock minerals and iron oxides. Methodology. This work includes both field work (creation of a new geological map for various rock units in the study area) and laboratory work (preparation of thin sections for petrographic and mineralogical studies using a polarizing microscope and a scanning electron microscope SEM). Results and their application. Exploration and extraction of ore deposits and minerals in the eastern desert of Egypt is one of the most important goals for increasing the rate of mining in the country, which leads to economic recovery and meeting the needs of society. Previous work has focused on evaluating and studying economically mineral resources in the Central-Eastern Desert of Egypt. This place is considered one of the most promising mineral deposits in addition to the available iron oxide minerals. Geological studies show that the mineralization of iron oxide in the study area is mainly associated with gabbroid rocks, which carry iron oxide minerals in the form of groups and lenses in the lower part of the Earth’s layers, which is associated with magma rich in iron oxides. According to field studies, we found that iron minerals are represented by lenses up to 3 m thick, alternating with rock. Conclusions. The chemical analysis of minerals based on iron oxides was discovered using a scanning electron microscope (SEM) used to determine the chemical composition of these minerals, which are classified as minerals such as ilmenite and magnetite. Actually geochemical studies have shown that they have a high content of total iron oxides.

Source routing and detection of dust storm in the Salt Lake basin of Qom in Iran

In the last decades, the frequency of dust storms has increasingly emerged in the central regions of Iran. This study investigated the SDS sources in the Salt Lake basin of Qom using daily visibility, wind speed, dust weather codes and NCEP/NCAR data, and MODIS and Sentinel-1 sensor datasets. Sample SDS days were selected by daily visibility and dust weather codes with 3-h interval ranging from 2000 to 2017. These sample SDS days were related to the 19 synoptic stations of the Salt Lake basin. Dust entry trajectories were determined through the HYSPLIT model and evaluated with the MODIS Deep Blue aerosol optical depth and atmospheric patterns. SDS sources were identified using Sentinel-1 radar images of IW mode and SLC type through radar interferometry technique. Analysis of variability and frequency in dusty days and wind speed indicated that in high wind speed and dusty days, frequency increases in the second half of the course. SDS entry trajectories indicated that the SDS mainly entered in the study area during April and May from Iraq and eastern Syria and also during June and July from the east of Iran and the study basin. Study of the regional atmospheric circulation represented that the thermodynamic relationship between the thermal low pressure and trough at 500 hPa in spring provides instability and ascending air in Iraq and eastern Syria. In summer, the pressure gradient between thermal low pressure in the east of Iran and the Caspian high pressure intensifies the wind in the eastern part of Iran from the surface to 850 hPa level. Investigation of the dust pickup areas with radar interferometry technique revealed that as far as Iraq and eastern Syria were concerned, the eastern part of Al-Anbar province in the western desert of Iraq was the first source, desert areas in central and southern Iraq were the second source, and the eastern part of Syria ranked the third source of dust. In Iran, the main sources of SDS are located in the eastern regions of the Salt Lake basin as newfound region, the southeastern areas of Semnan province, the northwest of Yazd, and the northeast of Isfahan in the central desert of Iran. In recent years, there has been more abundance of dust originated from the eastern SDS trajectories.

Genome-Wide Diversity, Population Structure and Demographic History of Dromedaries in the Central Desert of Iran.

The development of camel husbandry for good production in a desert climate is very important, thus we need to understand the genetic basis of camels and give attention to genomic analysis. We assessed genome-wide diversity, linkage disequilibrium (LD), effective population size (Ne) and relatedness in 96 dromedaries originating from five different regions of the central desert of Iran using genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS). A total of 14,522 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with an average minor allele frequency (MAF) of 0.19 passed quality control and filtering steps. The average observed heterozygosity in the population was estimated at 0.25 ± 0.03. The mean of LD at distances shorter than 40 kb was low (r2 = 0.089 ± 0.234). The camels sampled from the central desert of Iran exhibited higher relatedness than Sudanese and lower than Arabian Peninsula dromedaries. Recent Ne of Iran’s camels was estimated to be 89. Predicted Tajima’s D (1.28) suggested a bottleneck or balancing selection in dromedary camels in the central desert of Iran. A general decrease in effective and census population size poses a threat for Iran’s dromedaries. This report is the first SNP calling report on nearly the chromosome level and a first step towards understanding genomic diversity, population structure and demography in Iranian dromedaries.

Seasonal germination responses of seeds in fruits of the cold desert shrub Zygophyllum xanthoxylon buried in the field

We hypothesized that seeds of the central Asian cold desert shrub Zygophyllum xanthoxylon exhibit dormancy cycling in nature, which would help ensure that germination occurs at a favorable time for seedling survival. Fresh mature fruits of Z. xanthoxylon were placed on the soil surface and buried at a depth of 3–5 cm in soil in a natural habitat in August 2015. At regular intervals until July 2017, fruits/seeds were taken to the laboratory and evaluated for viability and germination. Fresh seeds in fruits germinated to 22–62% over a range of temperatures. After 6 weeks in the field, seeds on the surface germinated to 72–99% and those in soil to 70–100%. From 12 to 98 weeks, seeds on and in soil germinated to 72–100% at low (15/5 and 20/10 °C) temperatures, but germination at high (25/25 and 30/15 °C) temperatures was higher in summer than in spring. Seeds in fruits on the soil surface had higher germination percentages than those in the soil, especially at high temperatures. Although about half the seeds were dormant at maturity, they became nondormant in the field during summer. There was a decrease in ability to germinate at high temperatures in spring, especially for seeds in buried fruits, which indicates conditional dormancy/nondormancy cycling. Lack of germination at high temperatures in spring would help delay germination until the onset of the summer rainy season in the desert. Burial of fruits in the soil enhances the formation of a short-lived persistent seed bank.

Acute lower respiratory infections in Indigenous infants in Australia's Northern Territory across three eras of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use (2006–15): a population-based cohort study

The burden of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in Indigenous children of Australia's Northern Territory is among the highest globally. No published data exists on the effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction on ALRIs in this population beyond 2005. The aim of this study was to describe the rates of ALRI admissions to hospital in Indigenous infants in the Northern Territory from 2006 to 2015, across three periods of different PCV use. We hypothesised that broader valency PCVs would be more effective against hospitalisations for pneumonia. We did a retrospective population-based cohort study of Indigenous infants born in the Northern Territory followed up until age 12 months. Data were from administrative hospital and perinatal datasets. International classification of diseases codes (tenth revision, Australian modification; ICD-10AM) were used to identify respiratory hospitalisations of interest: all-cause ALRI, all-cause pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, viral pneumonia, influenza-like illness (ILI), respiratory syncytial virus ALRI (RSV-ALRI), and pneumococcal ALRI. Incidence rates were compared between PCV eras (7-valent PCV [PCV7], 2006-09; 10-valent PCV [PCV10], 2009-11; and 13-valent PCV [PCV13], 2011-15) using interrupted time trend analysis and negative binomial regression. For children born between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2015, 4138 ALRI episodes (31% of all hospitalisations) occurred among 2888 (20%) of the 14 594 infants. The overall ALRI hospitalisation rate was 29·7 episodes per 100 child-years. Prominent risk factors associated with ALRI hospitalisation were living in a remote community or the Central desert region, being born preterm or with low birthweight. ALRI rates were lowest in the PCV13 era, in association with a significant reduction in bacterial pneumonia hospitalisations in the PCV13 era compared with the PCV10 (incidence rate ratio 0·68, 95% CI 0·57-0·81) and PCV7 (0·70, 0·60-0·81) eras. In contrast, RSV-ALRI rates were 4·9 episodes per 100 child-years in each era. A 30% reduction in bacterial-coded pneumonia hospitalisations in the Northern Territory during the era of PCV13 immunisation supports its ongoing use in the region. Despite the reduction, one in five Indigenous infants born in the region continue to be hospitalised with an ALRI in their first year of life. Future gains require multifaceted environmental and biomedical approaches. National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

Do Bayesian methods lead to more precise chronologies? ‘BayLum’ and a first OSL-based chronology for the Palaeolithic open-air site of Mirak (Iran)

Bayesian inference has been applied extensively to chronologies in archaeological science since it provides several advantages over the (classic) frequentist approach. One of the most important aspects of applying Bayesian methods is their capacity to consider the stratigraphic relationship between ages. In luminescence dating, a crucial motivation for applying Bayesian modelling is the ability to address the systematic shared uncertainty. The recently deployed R package ‘BayLum’ was developed to ameliorate luminescence-based chronologies by employing Bayesian modelling. Our contribution aims at estimating the impact of stratigraphic order and systematic shared uncertainty on the age results. In this paper, for the first time, we present a comprehensive luminescence-based chronology for the Middle- Upper Palaeolithic site of Mirak. This open-air site is located in the northern fringes of the Iranian central desert, which is considered to be one of the dispersal corridors for hominins (Neanderthal and modern human) living across western and central Asia. We compare chronologies derived by frequentist and Bayesian methods to discuss the effect of stratigraphic ordering and the correlation between samples due to systematic shared uncertainty. Our investigations indicate that applying the stratigraphic order, when age uncertainty overlap one another, plays a fundamental role in reducing the uncertainty. At the site Mirak the obtained Bayesian chronology considering the stratigraphic order for the layer containing predominately Upper Palaeolithic techno- complex results in 21–28 ka. The age of the intermediate layer is in the range of 26–33 ka, and the lower- most layer containing Middle Palaeolithic assemblage gives the age-range of 43–55 ka. These results indicate that Late Pleistocene humans have exploited the site during MIS 3–2. Furthermore, the chronology gives further evidence to the hypothesis that the Iranian central plateau served as a frequently used habitat and dispersal corridor for human groups populating western and central Asia.