Melbourne Central Business District Research Articles

Climate risk assessment of buildings: An analysis of operating emissions of commercial offices in Australia

Building climate risk assessment involves benchmarking a building‘s energy use intensity against decarbonisation pathways to mitigate the impacts on climate change. Various climate risk assessment tools and frameworks are used for commercial buildings in different jurisdictions. This study reviewed 20 climate risk assessment tools based on their availability, application and underlying framework. Due to being the only available tool that sets global targets with local benchmarks in Australia to assess the risks associated with energy use in commercial offices, Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor (CRREM) was chosen. Using the CRREM tool, 431 commercial office buildings across Australia are benchmarked and the results were compared based on climate zones, jurisdictions, locations and sustainability ratings. Results revealed that 58.2% (n = 251) of buildings met the energy use targets. Most energy-efficient offices are found in the VIC state, within the Central Business District of Melbourne. Conversely, improvement is needed in Darwin, Northern Territory. The buildings at climate risk (41.8%, n = 180) need to reduce their on-site energy intensity by an aggregated net performance gap of 5484 kWh/m2/year in total. This significant shortfall highlights the critical imperative for all buildings to swiftly align with decarbonisation pathways, ensuring they meet 2050 climate change targets.

Evaluating the pedestrian level of service for varying trip purposes using machine learning algorithms

The pedestrians’ feeling of comfort while walking on footpaths varies according to the time of day, environment, and the purpose of the trip. The quality of service offered by pedestrian facilities such as walkways, intersections, and public places is evaluated by the Pedestrian level of service (PLOS) and has been measured from time to time, to upgrade and maintain the sustainable travel choice of people. This paper aims to focus on the level of service based on three main trip purposes such as work, education, and recreation, while considering various path characteristics and pedestrian flow characteristics that affect the pedestrian’s feeling of comfort on the walkways. The data has been collected using pedestrian questionnaire surveys and pedestrian sensors in the Melbourne central business district and the significant factors that influence the PLOS for each trip purpose will be chosen using the Mutual Information gain, which is found to be different for each trip purpose. The major influencing factors that affect the PLOS will be used to develop machine learning models for three trip purposes separately using Random Forest and Light-GBM algorithm in Python. The accuracy of prediction using the light GBM model is 0.74 for education, 0.80 for recreation, and 0.70 for work trip purposes. It is found using SHAP which stands for Shapely Additive explanations that the factors such as interpersonal distance, distance from vehicles, construction sites, vehicle volume, traffic noise, and footpath surface are the most influencing variables that affect the PLOS based on three different trip purposes.

Bayesian analysis of ground motion models using chimney fragility curves: 2021, 5.9-Mw Woods Point intraplate earthquake, Victoria, Australia

The 22 September 2021 (AEST) MW 5.9 Woods Point earthquake occurred in an intraplate setting (southeast Australia) approximately 130 km East Northeast of the central business district of Melbourne (pop. ∼5.15 million). A lack of seismic instrumentation and a low population density in the epicentral region resulted in a dearth of near-source instrumental and “felt” report intensity data, limiting evaluation of the near-source performance of ground motion models (GMMs). To address this challenge, we first surveyed unreinforced masonry chimneys following the earthquake to establish damage states and develop fragility curves. Using Bayesian inference, and including pre-earthquake GMM weightings as Bayesian priors, we evaluate the relative performance of GMMs in predicting chimney observations for different fragility functions and seismic velocity profiles. At the most likely VS30 (760 m/s), the best performing models are AB06, A12, and CY08SWISS. GMMs that were preferentially selected for utility in the Australian National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHA18) prior to the Woods Point earthquake outperform other GMMs. The recently developed NGA-East GMM performs relatively well in the more distal region (e.g. >50 km) but is among the poorest performing GMMs in the near-source region across the range of VS30. Our new method of combining analysis of engineered features (chimneys) with Bayesian inference to evaluate the near-source performance of GMMs may have applicability in diverse settings worldwide, particularly in areas of sparse seismic instrumentation.

Evaluating the Impact of COVID-19 on the Behaviour of Pedestrians

The COVID-19 pandemic has considerably impacted pedestrians’ perceived comfort in a public setting. The virus’s transmissibility and social distancing restrictions have resulted in a shift in pedestrians’ perceived comfort, with more pedestrians becoming more conscious of other pedestrians and the distance between pedestrians. The changes in pedestrians’ perception have resulted in the Pedestrian Level Of Service (PLOS) models becoming outdated. The models may not accurately portray the actual status of pedestrians’ Level Of Service (LOS) according to the pedestrian needs during a pandemic, which generally lasts for a couple of years. These pandemics will happen in the future; hence, their impact on pedestrian comfort on sidewalks is worth considering. This research aims to analyse the effect of COVID-19 on PLOS by compiling data using a face-to-face questionnaire survey in the Melbourne Central Business District (CBD). From the 445 completed surveys, 72% of respondents extensively considered social distancing due to COVID-19 when commuting in the CBD, and 49% preferred a 1–1.5 m distance between pedestrians. In conjunction with an in-depth analysis of the data, an ordinal regression model has been used to analyse the factors that influence the perceived comfort of the pedestrians and estimate the PLOS. The model results show that pedestrian density, COVID-19 social distancing, continuous footpath, and pedestrian flow in opposite directions on the sidewalk greatly impacted the walking comfort of pedestrians during the pandemic.

Bubble clash: Identity, environment and politics in a multicultural suburb

The purpose of article is to examine whether the current feminist philosophies in the intersection of identity, politics and the environment can have practical purchase in urban problem-solving. My argument is mobilised using the story of Greater Dandenong, a multicultural suburb approximately 30km south-east of Melbourne's central business district. This suburb witnessed what I call a ‘bubble clash.’ In recent years, Greater Dandenong has experienced an ecological problem: its seagull population has increased, causing community conflicts over how to manage it. These conflicts have been fought between insular, closed (i.e. bubble) groups. One effect of this ‘bubble clash’ has been that it is incredibly difficult to develop a communal agreement between groups with very different outlooks. Feminist theory has, historically, provided significant resources for understanding this kind of situation. In the article, I review feminist political philosophies – drawing on Iris Young, Patricia H. Collins and Elizabeth Grosz – that help us understand how identity and urban politics relate. My contribution is to add a pragmatic supplement to this body of work. Extending beyond the interpretation of multiculturalism in which ‘differences’ in our identities are given an a priori quality, I propose a ‘transitionist pragmatist perspective’ that (a) reframes how we understand context and contingency in the ongoing formation of subjectivities and their ideals and (b) seeks to trace the history of problematic situations specifically through the lens of problem-solving.

Assessing the impacts of last mile delivery strategies on delivery vehicles and traffic network performance

Urban freight is growing fast, and its adverse effects bring consequences for the residents, the environment, and the liveability of cities. Although understanding its dynamics has become a priority for governments, the multiplicity of actors with conflicting objectives makes it a significant urban planning challenge. This study focuses on one type of on-street parking infrastructure for urban freight: loading zones. Although they are considered one of the most important parking strategies to control freight traffic, increasing pressure for more pedestrian space, public transport, sustainable mobility and the surge in urban deliveries have reduced their size, quantity and availability. These factors have increased the externalities generated by delivery vehicles (congestion, accidents, noise, pollution and visual intrusion), reduced the liveability of urban areas and increased the difficulty for cities to improve urban traffic. To address this problem, we developed a simulation-optimisation framework to evaluate urban logistics strategies that balance the courier’s (walking and cruising time) and the city’s (traffic flow variability) objectives. The methodology considers the decision-making processes of the road users, their interaction, and the variability of stochastic parameters (traffic conditions, competition, cruising, and illegal parking). To optimise the routes of delivery vehicles, we developed an evolutionary algorithm that minimises the trucking and walking distances and used commercial software to re-optimise mid-route decisions. The model is applied to a representation of the Melbourne central business district (CBD), a common network structure among many cities, simulating realistic conditions. Results show that is possible to devise win-win solutions that favour all parties in the transport network.

“Keep Your Wheels Off the Furniture”: The Marginalization of Street Skateboarding in the City of Melbourne’s “Skate Melbourne Plan”

The City of Melbourne’s Skate Melbourne Plan purports to be skateboarder-centered, focusing on developing skate spaces for skateboarders. Drawing on research analyzing street skateboarders’ production of space and the importance of public spaces to street skateboarding, we examine how the Skate Melbourne Plan recognizes and supports street skateboarders’ capacity to skate in city environments. We suggest that rather than developing street skateboarding in the Melbourne Central Business District (CBD), the Skate Melbourne Plan reproduces negative constructions of young people who engage in street skateboarding as deviant and delinquent, by marginalizing and delegitimizing street skateboarding in public spaces.

Distributed Edge System Orchestration for Web-based Mobile Augmented Reality Services

The emergence of edge computing and 5G networks has fueled the growth of mobile Web AR. Although efforts have been made to improve the edge system efficiency for Web AR applications, efficient edge-assisted mobile Web AR services remain technically challenging. This paper presents EARNet, a distributed edge system orchestration approach for mobile Web AR in 5G networks. The design of EARNet makes three novel contributions. First, EARNet manages the edge network dynamics with respect to user mobility and their Web AR service requests by employing landmarks and grid index based edge node localization mechanisms. Second, EARNet takes into account both request serving performance and offloading cost in managing workload balance and quality of service and leverages dynamic hash and max heap mechanisms for efficient Web AR service lookup and AR computations. Third, EARNet designs the service migration schemes by optimizing several performance factors, such as message efficiency, scheduling latency, request density and locality of mobile users and edge nodes, and accuracy of Web AR services after migration. Experimental evaluations are conducted using the real base station deployment data in the Melbourne Central Business District (CBD) area. The results shows the effectiveness of the EARNet edge orchestration approach compared to several baseline approaches.

Exploring Effective Built Environment Factors for Evaluating Pedestrian Volume in High-Density Areas: A New Finding for the Central Business District in Melbourne, Australia

Previous studies have mostly examined how sustainable cities try to promote non-motorized travel by creating a walking-friendly environment. Such existing studies provide little data that identifies how the built environment affects pedestrian volume in high-density areas. This paper presents a methodology that combines person correlation analysis, stepwise regression, and principal component analysis for exploring the internal correlation and potential impact of built environment variables. To study this relationship, cross-sectional data in the Melbourne central business district were selected. Pearson’s correlation coefficient confirmed that visible green ratio and intersection density were not correlated to pedestrian volume. The results from stepwise regression showed that land-use mix degree, public transit stop density, and employment density could be associated with pedestrian volume. Moreover, two principal components were extracted by factor analysis. The result of the first component yielded an internal correlation where land-use and amenities components were positively associated with the pedestrian volume. Component 2 presents parking facilities density, which negatively relates to the pedestrian volume. Based on the results, existing street problems and policy recommendations were put forward to suggest diversifying community service within walking distance, improving the service level of the public transit system, and restricting on-street parking in Melbourne.

A Performance-Based Airspace Model for Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management

Recent evolutions of the Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Traffic Management (UTM) concept are driving the introduction of new airspace structures and classifications, which must be suitable for low-altitude airspace and provide the required level of safety and flexibility, particularly in dense urban and suburban areas. Therefore, airspace classifications and structures need to evolve based on appropriate performance metrics, while new models and tools are needed to address UTM operational requirements, with an increasing focus on the coexistence of manned and unmanned Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles and associated Communication, Navigation and Surveillance (CNS) infrastructure. This paper presents a novel airspace model for UTM adopting Performance-Based Operation (PBO) criteria, and specifically addressing urban airspace requirements. In particular, a novel airspace discretisation methodology is introduced, which allows dynamic management of airspace resources based on navigation and surveillance performance. Additionally, an airspace sectorisation methodology is developed balancing the trade-off between communication overhead and computational complexity of trajectory planning and re-planning. Two simulation case studies are conducted: over the skyline and below the skyline in Melbourne central business district, utilising Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B). The results confirm that the proposed airspace sectorisation methodology promotes operational safety and efficiency and enhances the UTM operators’ situational awareness under dense traffic conditions introducing a new effective 3D airspace visualisation scheme, which is suitable both for mission planning and pre-tactical UTM operations. Additionally, the proposed performance-based methodology can accommodate the diversity of infrastructure and vehicle performance requirements currently envisaged in the UTM context. This facilitates the adoption of this methodology for low-level airspace integration of UAS (which may differ significantly in terms of their avionics CNS capabilities) and set foundations for future work on tactical online UTM operations.

Investigating Daylight in the Apartment Buildings in Melbourne, Australia

Daylighting improves users’ experience in visual comfort, aesthetics, behaviour and perception of space and plays an important part in enhancing the health and wellbeing of occupants inside a dwelling. However, daylighting design is challenging for high rise living since configuration of multiple apartments together often results in deep plans and wrongly oriented apartments with poor daylighting. Melbourne considered as the most liveable city in the world has witnessed a boom in high rise apartments in recent years, where bedrooms were designed without windows or with one small opening. Previous studies indicated that one out of two apartments in Melbourne’s central business district (CBD) failed to provide daylighting in the bedrooms. This has led to amendments in planning policy with the aim of providing access to daylight in all habitable rooms. This paper investigates the daylighting conditions in apartment buildings using field measurement and daylight simulations. Daylight levels in 12 apartment units in Melbourne CBD were measured. Additionally, daylight simulations were conducted to identify ways for optimizing light levels in standard layouts. The field measurements showed that daylighting levels were insufficient in one third the apartments due to the presence of deep floor plates and external obstructions. The results from the daylight simulations showed that window to floor area ratio (WFR) of approximately 30% is required for achieving acceptable daylighting levels in bedrooms that have south orientation.

Effect of Sand Content on the Liquefaction Potential and Post-Earthquake Behaviour of Coode Island Silt

Traditionally, sandy soils are known to be the only type of soils susceptible to liquefaction. However, liquefaction has also been observed in silty and clayey soils. As one of the most problematic soft soils in the state of Victoria, Australia, Coode Island Silt (CIS) extends from the northern shoreline of Port Phillip Bay to the south and west of Melbourne central business district and contains a considerable and variable amount of sand. Although this material covers an area of more than 20 km2 at a depth varying from ground level to 30 m below the ground level in the metropolitan region of Melbourne, the effect of sand content on the liquefaction potential and post-earthquake behaviour of CIS has never been studied properly. Through an extensive set of monotonic, cyclic and post-cyclic triaxial tests, this paper explores the earthquake and post-earthquake response of CIS containing variable sand content. Based on the test results, it is found that the sand content up to 60% does not affect the liquefaction potential of CIS under the tested cyclic stress ratio. Also, it is found that although the applied cyclic loading does not considerably alter the internal friction of CIS-sand mixtures, the post-cyclic secant stiffness increases dramatically.

Profile of optometrists in Victoria registered in 1937 after five decades of unregulated practice

BackgroundThe enactment of the Opticians Act by the Victorian parliament on 17 December 1935 transformed the standard of optometric practice in Victoria and laid the foundations for future educational advance. Previously any person could practise optometry in Victoria regardless of their qualifications or training. The Act established an Opticians Registration Board the first task of which was to register optometrists deemed competent enough to practise on the basis of their prior experience or their optometric qualifications.MethodsThis article uses the working papers of the Registration Board at the time to construct a profile of the optometrists in practice in 1936 including the number of optometrists in practice at the time, their qualifications, the extent of their prior experience, their conjoined businesses and their geographic location.ResultsThere were 489 optometrists in practice who applied for registration in 1936 of whom 338 were subsequently registered, two‐thirds on the basis of prior experience and one‐third because they held an optometric qualification recognised under the Act. Eleven of them were women. Sixty‐one per cent of them were solely engaged in the practice of optometry and 39 per cent practised in conjunction with another occupation, the most common of which were watchmaker, jeweller and pharmacist. Thirty‐eight per cent practised in the central business district of Melbourne, 37 per cent in Melbourne suburbs and 25 per cent in regional Victoria. In 1937 the ratio of registered optometrists to population was 1:5,482.ConclusionThe Opticians Act of 1935 immediately lifted the competence of optometrists in practice in 1936 by refusing to register 31 per cent of those in practice who were judged to lack the necessary competence, and laid the foundations for higher educational standards in the future.

Public Perception of Drones… or Should that be Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems?

The survey was conducted at RMIT University open day, on a Sunday when the campus was open to the public. It should be noted that the survey was conducted on the street, and the campus is in fact 6% of the Melbourne central business district. As such, participation was open to the general public, with diverse demographics collected. One hundred paper surveys were distributed and collected, of which 83 were completed correctly. Mistakes were made, some with multiple options selected etc; these responses were omitted.

Traveling Officer Problem: Managing Car Parking Violations Efficiently Using Sensor Data

The on-street parking system is an indispensable part of civic projects, as it provides travelers and shoppers with parking spaces. With the recent in-ground sensors deployed throughout the Melbourne central business district (CBD), there is a significant problem on how to use the sensor data to manage parking violations and issue infringement notices efficiently in a short time-window. In this paper, we use a large real-world dataset with on-street parking sensor data from the local city council, and establish a formulation of the traveling officer problem with a general probability-based model. We propose two solutions using a spatio-temporal probability model for parking officers to maximize the number of infringing cars caught with limited time cost. Using real-world parking sensor data and Google Maps road network information, the experimental results show that our proposed algorithms outperform the existing patrolling routes.

Representativeness and repeatability of microenvironmental personal and head exposures to radio-frequency electromagnetic fields

The aims of this study were to: i) investigate the repeatability and representativeness of personal radio frequency-electromagnetic fields (RF-EMFs) exposure measurements, across different microenvironments, ii) perform simultaneous evaluations of personal RF-EMF exposures for the whole body and the head, iii) validate the data obtained with a head-worn personal distributed exposimeter (PDE) against those obtained with an on-body worn personal exposimeter (PEM). Data on personal and head RF-EMF exposures were collected by performing measurements across 15 microenvironments in Melbourne, Australia. A body-worn PEM and a head-worn PDE were used for measuring body and head exposures, respectively. The summary statistics obtained for total RF-EMF exposure showed a high representativeness (r2 > 0.66 for two paths in the same area) and a high repeatability over time (r2 > 0.87 for repetitions of the same path). The median head exposure in the 900MHz downlink band ranged between 0.06V/m and 0.31V/m. The results obtained during simultaneous measurements using the two devices showed high correlations (0.42 < r2 < 0.94). The highest mean total RF-EMF exposure was measured in Melbourne's central business district (0.89V/m), whereas the lowest mean total exposure was measured in a suburban residential area (0.05V/m). This study shows that personal RF-EMF microenvironmental measurements in multiple microenvironments have high representativeness and repeatability over time. The personal RF-EMF exposure levels (i.e. body and head exposures) demonstrated moderate to high correlations.

Building use by urban commensal avifauna in Melbourne central business district, Australia

ABSTRACTThe foraging and perching behaviours of urban commensal birds are well studied but disproportionately focused on green spaces (e.g. parks, backyards) rather than inner city urban sites. The relationship between building use and foraging was examined in free-ranging urban birds of the central business district (CBD) of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia during 2015–2016. The presence of common birds on urban buildings was attributable both to the time of day (Feral Pigeons and Silver Gulls in the morning, and House Sparrows in the evening) and the architectural period of the building (Feral Pigeons, House Sparrows and Common Mynas were found mostly on historic buildings). The proximity of buildings to tree cover had a significant impact on the presence of House Sparrows. Silver Gulls were present in large numbers only in areas with the least disturbance from traffic and trams (and their overhead wires). Feeding behaviours constituted a small portion of time budgets for all species (mean 4.3%; range 0–11%) compared to perching (28.2; 0–60%), walking (30.4; 0–80%) and flying (23.0; 0–54%), indicating that food sources were highly abundant and requiring little effort to acquire. Management implications of this study support control of food availability rather than costly and ineffective bird deterrent systems on buildings.

Determination of acceptable thermal range in outdoor built environments by various methods

Purpose Assessment of outdoor thermal perception in urban spaces is of particular importance due to its financial, social and ecological consequences. Thermal perception includes four elements: thermal sensation votes (TSV), thermal preference (Tpref), overall thermal comfort (Tc) and thermal acceptability (Taccept). Thermal acceptability can offer a benchmark that specifies the acceptable thermal range (ATR), which is useful for urban planners, designers, and bio-meteorologists. ATR, however, can be defined either using direct or indirect measures. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the validity of the indirect measures of ATR, which are most commonly used in outdoor thermal comfort assessments. Design/methodology/approach This study was conducted in the context of Melbourne, which has an oceanic temperate climate (Cfb). Three sites forming RMIT University City Campus (RUCC) were selected as the case studies, which were located in the heart of Melbourne Central Business District. A field survey was conducted in RUCC during three seasons, from November 2014 (Spring) to May 2015 (Autumn), which consisted of concurrent field measurements and questionnaire surveys from 9:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Findings In total, 1,059 valid questionnaires were collected from the three sites of RUCC. The results of comparative analysis between the different measures of ATR determination showed that the various elements of thermal perceptions expressed the users’ thermal judgements in different ways. Therefore, it was found that the instruction recommended by the thermal comfort standards on the definition of ATR failed to provide an appropriate estimation of ATR for outdoor built environments. The ATR, defined using TSV, therefore, was revised by the direct measure of thermal acceptability. The resulting range showed broader limits in acceptable thermal conditions in RUCC outdoor spaces users. Lastly, the results suggest that in the absence of directly measured acceptability of thermal conditions in field surveys, overall comfort is the most appropriate indirect measure to use. Originality/value Some indoor thermal comfort studies have used the alternatives for defining ATR. However, as the applicability of these four methods is yet to be fully explored in outdoor conditions with large weather variations, it is valuable to conduct a comparative analysis among these methods. This study also intended to understand the dynamics of comfort range under non-steady and non-uniform outdoor conditions. The resultant outcome has provided information on the relationship between different measures of thermal perceptions. Ultimately, this research aimed to explore the extent to which the indirect measures of acceptability are considered as a reliable source of information compared to the direct measure.

What can social marketing learn from Dirichlet theory patterns in a physical activity context?

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to explore whether patterns suggested in Dirichlet theory can be observed in a single behaviour change context, namely, physical activity; second, to provide implications for social marketing practice based on the Dirichlet theory patterns observed in a social context of physical activity. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 1,459 respondents residing within 20 kilometres of the Melbourne Central Business District participated in an online survey. The questions in the survey included items relating to respondents’ self-reported physical activity. Findings – The results of the current study indicate that Dirichlet patterns can be observed in social contexts such as physical activity. Research limitations/implications – The sample in this study cannot be considered to be demographically representative of the target population and the physical activity categories selected for this study were limited to the most popular activities and a category level and whole of sample assessment. Practical implications – To encourage participation in physical activity social marketers need to promote and offer a broad range of physical activity options to increase overall physical activity participation. This is a substantial change from current social marketing practice where one form of physical activity is typically promoted. Originality/value – This research indicates that commercial marketing theories may be extended to a social marketing context thereby overcoming social marketing’s health myopia. The current study is the first to apply Dirichlet theory in full to a social marketing setting, namely, physical activity.

Impact of climate change on urban heat island effect and extreme temperatures: a case‐study

This study investigated the impacts of climate change on the urban heat island (UHI) and the number of very hot (maximum temperature &gt;35°C) and very cold days (minimum temperature &lt;5°C) in the central business district (CBD) of Melbourne city in Australia. A station located in Laverton (less urbanised area), which is 17 km southwest of Melbourne CBD, was selected as the reference station for the computation of UHI intensity in Melbourne CBD. Using daily minimum/maximum temperatures at the two stations, nocturnal/diurnal UHI intensities in Melbourne CBD were computed for the period 1952–2010. It was found that in Melbourne CBD, nocturnal UHI intensities show a clear rising trend over the period 1952–2010 unlike the diurnal UHI intensities. For the analysis of nocturnal UHI intensities in Melbourne CBD, under changing climate, for each calendar month statistical models based on the gene expression programming (GEP) technique were developed for downscaling general‐circulation model (GCM) outputs to monthly average minimum temperature at Melbourne CBD and Laverton. Using the outputs of HadCM3, GFDL2.0 and ECHAM5 pertaining to the A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario on the downscaling models, projections of monthly average minimum temperature were produced for the two stations over the period 2000–2099. In each season, at both stations, the ensemble average of monthly minimum temperature gradually increased over the period 2000–2099. The ensemble‐average UHI intensity in Melbourne CBD projected into the future was higher for all seasons in comparison to that of period 1952–1971. Downscaling models based on the GEP technique were developed for each calendar month for projecting the number of very hot days in November–March and very cold days in May–September in Melbourne CBD. It was found that, in the future, summer weather will spread to early autumn, and winter weather will move to early spring, in Melbourne CBD.