Central Bank Of Iraq Research Articles

The impact of dollar price fluctuations on the GDP of developing countries: Iraq as a model

The exchange rate is a tool of monetary policy, which is a matter of monetary policy, determined by the Central Bank of Iraq, as well as the subject of the exchange rate of complex topics, and the importance of this research lies in understanding the impact of dollar price fluctuations on the Iraqi economy, which contributes to enhancing knowledge about how external factors interact with local economic conditions, providing valuable recommendations for decision-makers to design effective strategies to deal with these fluctuations and achieve greater economic stability. The descriptive approach was used to collect and analyze economic data related to dollar price fluctuations and its impact on GDP, which helps to understand the relationships between these variables in Iraq during the period (2003-2024), the most important conclusions reached by the research that the general trend indicates sustainable growth in GDP, but economic challenges, such as exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, need to be effectively addressed. The government and central bank should promote economic stability through effective monetary policies that support growth and maintain exchange rate stability.

Using Decision Tree Technique to Predict the Financial Collapse of Iraqi Private Banks: An Applied Study

Predicting the Financial Collapse (FC) using modern technologies and scientific methods for Iraqi private banks is considered an early warning to detect their failure in the future. Therefore, these proposals, represented by scientific methods and modern technologies, are submitted to the specialized bodies represented by (the Central Bank of Iraq) in order to present them to the banks in the research sample to raise their capacity through the use of modern technologies and in order to adopt them as a scientific basis for predicting the FC. The following will be followed: Evaluating the performance of banks and classifying them based on the Camels standard (CS) and predicting the FC based on modern technologies (by relying on the decision tree algorithm). The research relied on the deductive approach to complete the theoretical aspect and the applied (experimental) approach to complete the practical aspect. The researcher also processed and prepared the data and then evaluated the performance of banks and classified them based on the CS equations consisting of five indicators and on the averages of these results as inputs for prediction using DT. Different computer programs were also adopted, as the Excel program was used to unload the data, the (SPSS) program to apply the equations, and the (Matlab) program to predict modern technologies. The most prominent conclusions reached by the research are as follows: Modern technologies represented by decision trees are characterized by providing more accurate information

Pollution Assessment of the Tigris River Sediments Resulting from Wastewater Discharge in Baghdad, Iraq

This study aimed to study the concentrations of some trace elements, such as Pb, Ni, Cd, Cu, Cr, Zn, Mn, and Fe and evaluate the level of pollution resulting from sewage on the Tigris River sediment by selecting eight stations distributed along the River (Central bank of Iraq, Jadriya Bridge, Al-Dora (Al-Dora silo), Sinak Bridge, Ahrar bridge, River street, Medical city, Al-Kadhimiya) in Baghdad City. The study was conducted during two seasons, winter and summer. Geochemical pollution indices such as geoaccumulation factor and contamination factor were used to evaluate the degree of acidity of river sediment. The results showed that the summer season of the Tigris River recorded relatively higher concentrations than the winter season. This may be because of the decrease in the dilution factor of these elements in the sediment due to the low water levels during the summer. According to the I-geo results, the sixth site's sediment is unpolluted with Fe, Mn, Cr, Ni, Zn, Pb, and Cd in both seasons and mildly polluted with Cu in the summer. The Cu contamination factor, classified as class 3, indicates significant contamination to severely pollute in summer, while Fe, Pb, Cu, and Zn conbankred unpolluted in both seasons. Fe, Mn, Cr, Ni, Pb, Cd, and Zn are not polluted in any season. However, Cu's contamination factor is classified as class 3, meaning significant contamination occurs during summer.

The possibility of parallel market correction for exchange rate changes according to the ARDL and ARIMA models

The parallel market is an indicator of the prevailing economic situation in the country, and the exchange rate is one of the important tools that link the local economy to the global economy. It also plays an important role in influencing many variables in the Iraqi economy. Therefore, we find that the monetary authority represented by the Central Bank of Iraq is in a continuous monetary struggle across... Over the past few years and up to the present, we have sought to find accurate solutions to the problem of the difference between the official and parallel exchange rates.As the sustainable and growing difference between the two prices leaves the impression on the public of turning towards the foreign currency in their transactions and reducing transactions in the local currency, then the effect is greatly reflected in the Iraqi economic sectors, especially the commercial sector, causing large and sudden changes in price levels, which creates and stimulates a group of complicit traders and researchers. For their personal gains through illegal and fraudulent means, which harms the interests of society as a whole, and this is what we notice. Despite the attempts made by the Central Bank of Iraq, they did not significantly affect the reduction of the difference between the two prices. Therefore, this study attempted to find a predictive approach between the official and parallel exchange rates through the model. According to the standard forecast, we see that the parallel exchange rate will reach (1433.64) per US dollar in the future for the year 2027. Therefore, the Central Bank, the government, and members of society must use all measures necessary to address the imbalances in the exchange rate.

Improving Building Information Modeling (BIM) Implementation throughout the Construction Industry

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is extensively used in the construction industry due to its benefits throughout the Project Life Cycle (PLC). BIM can simulate buildings throughout PLC, detect and resolve problems, and improve building visualization that contributes to the representation of actual project details in the construction stage. BIM contributes to project management promotion by detecting problems that lead to conflicts, cost overruns, and time delays. This work aims to implement an effective BIM for the Iraqi construction projects’ life cycle. The methodology used is a literature review to collect the most important factors contributing to the success of BIM implementation, interview the team of the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) building, and strive to improve the BEP of the CBI building. However, previous studies indicate collaborative work and communications enhance effective BIM implementation, which can improve BIM use by applying a BEP and an AEC (UK) BIM protocol that leads to positive BIM impact. BEP comprises important information and goals related to the intended project, including the BIM collaborative process (process map), information exchange requirements, BIM data management, BIM model management, and quality control, which are considered essential for enhancing BIM collaboration during PLC. This paper concludes that implementing BIM effectively requires overcoming obstacles faced by Iraqi construction projects. Effective BIM implementation requires improving collaboration and communication throughout the construction process, which could be achieved by depending on the BIM Execution Planning Guide(BEP Guide) and the AEC (UK) BIM Protocol 2012 V2.0

The Relationship Between Financial Stability and Credit Supply: Evidence from Iraq

Objective: The study aims to investigate the impact of bank credit on financial stability in the Iraqi economy and to reveal trends in bank credit in the Iraqi economy.
 
 Method: We use the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and the Granger causality to assess the role of bank credit in strengthening financial stability in the Iraqi economy for the period 2006 to 2021.
 
 Result: We provide evidence on the presence of a long-term relationship between bank supply and all indicators of financial stability. In the short term, a positive association is documented between bank credit and capital adequacy ratio.
 
 Conclusion: Several conclusions could be drawn from our analysis of the evolution of bank credit and financial stability indicators, as well as from our empirical investigation of the relationship between them. The bank credit has been steadily increasing from 2006 to 2021. The capital adequacy ratio (CAR) was very high over the period 2006-2021, exceeding the standard ratio set by the Central Bank of Iraq, which is 12%. This reflects the soundness of the banking system in Iraq. However, the return on equity declined from 27.1% in 2010 to 5.15% at the end of the study period in 2021. Using the VECM model and Granger causality, we provide evidence that bank credit affects financial stability through multiple channels. Thus, the Iraqi central bank should use the tool of credit supply to enhance financial stability.

Initiatives to Involve Women in Environmentally Friendly Economic Projects that Promote Sustainable Development in Iraq

Women have an important role in developing the economic sector around the world in general and Iraq in particular. Women have an important role in promoting the path of sustainable development and in building a next generation capable of creating decent work and developing other economic sectors. The research problem was crystallized by asking: What are the most important initiatives for economic projects that have participated? Where is the woman? To what extent are women empowered and what is their role in promoting sustainable development goals? The aim of the research was to know the extent of women’s empowerment and their role in environmentally friendly economic projects that enhance the path of sustainable development in Iraq, and to highlight the most important initiatives undertaken by the Central Bank of Iraq, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, and the national strategy, and to update the weaknesses and strengths in economic projects that diminished the status of women. As for the research hypothesis, women play an important role in achieving the dimensions of sustainable development through financing and opportunities, while the most important conclusions were the weakness of the role of Iraqi women in the field of environmentally friendly economic projects, and if they exist, they are not at the level of ambition. The most important recommendations were to contain unemployment rates amongWomen in the government sector and the private sector through enhanced job opportunities for production and productivity and environmental, social and legal protection systems for women.

THE ECONOMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND MONEY SUPPLY AND THEIR IMPACT ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN IRAQ

This research aimed to measure and analyze the impact of exchange rate shocks on some variables of the Iraqi economy during (1990-2022), because of the different effects of these shocks on the macroeconomic variables represented in money supply and agricultural output. Exchange rates are related to the policy chosen by the Central Bank of Iraq in managing the foreign exchange market and in the rentier nature of the Iraqi economy. The research uses a quantitative method in estimating the levels of the impact of exchange rate shocks on some economic variables. Several methods are conducted to achieve the goals, including the VAR model, variance decomposition and Impulse Response Functions. The results showed that exchange rate variance reached 100% in the same variable in the first year and decrease to 97% at the end of the period, and the same in the impulse response. It was an internal reaction that predicts what can be called the self-wave of an exchange rate rise, while both the variation and the response to the money supply shock in Iraq were dependent on the policy of the Central Bank and compatible with what was happening in the exchange rate, as the analysis of variance in the first year reached 38.98% for the same variable and 61% of it is due to the exchange rate. The results also showed that agricultural output was weakly affected by the exchange rate shock and money supply.

Stock Market Response to Monetary Policy: Evidence from Iraq

The current study seeks to assess the influence of monetary policy carried out by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI henceforth) on stock market performance (SMP henceforth) from 2008 to 2021. Three monetary policy variables have been considered: money supply, inflation, and interest rate. Meanwhile, the number of transactions has measured the Iraqi Stock Exchange Market (ISX henceforth) performance. This study has used the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL henceforth) model by utilising monthly data. The results show that in the long term, the money supply and interest rates both have a negative impact on ISX performance. On the other hand, the findings have reported that inflation significantly and positively affects ISX performance. However, there was no indication of a relationship among the underlying variables in the short term. For investors and the appropriate authorities, these findings may have important implications.

Selling the Currency Window in the Central Bank of Iraq and Exchange Rate Risks: An Analytical Study for the Period from 2016 to 2019

Selling the Currency Window in the Central Bank of Iraq and Exchange Rate Risks: An Analytical Study for the Period from 2016 to 2019

Dispute Resolution in Islamic Banking Industry Under The Iraqi Judiciary System

Islamic banking transaction is based on an interest-free system that is prohibited to deal with riba. Several Islamic banks in Iraq are governed by the Central Bank of Iraq. Due to the lack of Islamic financial courts and lack of professional judges in the Islamic financial field, Islamic banking cases are handled by civil courts in Iraq. However, Islamic finance disputes should be considered by special courts with qualified judges in the field. The Judicial Authority in Iraq is not based on the Sharia system and the Sharia court specialised in Islamic finance in Iraq does not exist. As stated in Article 89 of the Iraqi Constitution of 2005 that the federal juridical power is comprised of the Higher Juridical Council, the Federal Supreme Court, the Federal Court of Cassation, the Public Prosecution Department, the Judiciary Oversight Commission, and other federal courts that are regulated under the law. Thus, Islamic banking disputes fall under the civil courts and the Courts of First Instance are responsible to handle cases of debt, and contracts. Furthermore, these courts are not specialists in Islamic banking and finance transactions. Therefore, a particular court, i.e. the Islamic financial court, should be among these courts in Iraq for resolving Islamic banking disputes. In addition, the special court has to include qualified judges who are familiar with Islamic finance.

Impacting Digital Competence on Entrepreneurial Alertness: An Analytical Research at the Central Bank of Iraq

In the era of the digital economy, public organizations need to consolidation the capabilities of entrepreneurial alertness to reduce the risks of sudden transformations and changes, and to find effective mechanisms to discover and invest in environmental opportunities proactively, as this concern has become a knowledge gap in public sector institutions, the current research aims to identify the role of digital competence in influencing on entrepreneurial alertness in the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), the descriptive analytical approach was used as a research method to describe and analyze the main research variables. digital competence as an explanatory variable includes three dimensions: digital infrastructure, digital integration, and digital management, while entrepreneurial alertness as a responsive variable comprises three dimensions: scanning and search, association and connection, and evaluation as well as judgment. The research sample included the middle and senior administrative leaders of the CBI through using proportionate stratified random sampling to get a good representation of each class of society (n=125). The statistical package for social sciences (SPSS) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) by AMOS were used to analyze the research data. The results indicated that there is a statistically significant positive correlation and influence relationship between the two main research variables and their sub-dimensions. The most important dimensions of digital competence in influence and interest were digital infrastructure and digital management. However, the influence of digital integration on entrepreneurial alertness was insignificant in the CBI.
 
 Paper type: Research paper.

An Analytical Study of the Financial Inclusion Indicators in the Iraqi Banking Sector Between 2011-2021

Financial inclusion has been recently gaining the attention of researches due to its important role in achieving sustainable development, reducing poverty and unemployment rates, and enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of the financial performance in banking sector. The aim of this study is to analyze the indicators of financial inclusion for the banking sector in Iraq during the period from 2011 till 2021 using the descriptive approach. Results showed that financial inclusion indicators (FII) (access, use and quality of services) in Iraq are still below the international standards, but they have witnessed a relative improvement in recent years, which is attributed to the growing attention to raising the level of financial inclusion in Iraq and the efforts made by the Central Bank of Iraq. Central Bank of Iraq is recommended to adapt more developed initiations to elevate the level of financial inclusion and cooperate with the local authorities and international partners in order to formulate an integrated and implementable national strategy that could help in achieving this goal.

The Possibility of Applying Agile Internal Auditing in the Iraqi Economic Units

The research problem is that the traditional methods of internal auditing are somewhat heavy with long and rigid procedures for the members of the audit process team, especially in light of the current developments that are reflected in the business environment and internal audit reports, so it is necessary to reconsider the traditional internal audit work method and assess the extent of its development by agile methods to reduce the time of the audit process on the activities and elements that add value and direct the effort and time to the activities and elements that add value to the work of the economic unit and the report of the internal auditor.
 The research aims to study the possibility of applying agile internal auditing in the Iraqi economic units and to achieve the goal of the research. The researchers made a checklist to test the research hypothesis, which states (there are no applications of lean internal auditing methods in the local environment). For (6) private banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, which number (69) banks, after reviewing the periodic reports prepared by the Central Bank of Iraq.
 The researchers concluded that the banks of the research sample applied to the graceful internal audit in the Iraqi economic units is the Ashur Bank, as it obtained the highest arithmetic mean reached (2.55) and the highest relative importance as it amounted to (85.0%) and the second place the Iraqi Investment Bank got the arithmetic mean (2.48) and importance Relative (82.7%). In third place, the Khaleej Commercial Bank got an arithmetic mean (2.39) and relative importance (79.7%). In fourth place, the Trans-Iraq Bank got an arithmetic mean (2.28) and relative importance (76%). In fifth place, the Iraqi Islamic Bank got on the arithmetic mean (2.24) and relative importance (74.7%).
 
 Paper type: Research Paper

Analyzing the relationship between banking finance and GDP in Iraq using the sectoral flexibilities approach for the period 2015-2021

Study Aim: This research aims to analyze the relationship between bank financing and GDP in Iraq from 2015 to 2021 using the sectoral flexibilities approach. Three variables were selected, including GDP, monetary bank credit, and the Central Bank of Iraq's initiative. The study measured the flexibility of economic sectors towards various forms of credit.Method: This study used the sectoral flexibilities approach to examine the correlation between banking finance and GDP in Iraq. It measured the flexibility of oil and non-oil GDP towards various types of credit to assess the impact of monetary credit on Iraq's GDP. Data was collected from the Central Bank of Iraq and other relevant sources, and statistical tools such as regression analysis were employed for the analysis.Main Findings: The study found that there is a clear response to monetary credit on the gross domestic product in Iraq. The flexibility of non-oil GDP towards total cash credit, government and private credit, pledge credit, cash credit granted by the sector, and the initiatives of the Central Bank of Iraq was found to be higher compared to the flexibility of oil GDP. The findings suggest that the private sector needs to be given more leeway to increase the effectiveness of its economic activity, which in turn will improve the relationship between bank financing and the domestic product. Main Recommendations: Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that the government of Iraq provide more opportunities for the private sector to increase their participation in the economy.

Economic growth related to Iraqi government Size

Background: The aim of the current research was to studying the impacts of the government size on an economic growth of Iraq. In spite of the high rate of the government spending, there are no good impact on economic growth. Methods: Data was collected from Central Bank of Iraq, including, the dependent variables, which were Gross domestic product and annual growth. We have used the ARDL method to analyses the data using canonical correlation analysis. The study included the effect relationship between the independent variables and the dependent variables, each independently. In addition the multiple linear regresion equation and tests (T), test (F) to test the significance, and coefficients of determination or interpretation (R2) to find out the percentage of interpretation of the independent variable from the dependent variable was used. Results: the findings of research based on estimation of the regression model using ARDL showed that the government size has a positive and statistically significant effect on Iraqi economic growth. Conclusion: It was noted that fluctuations in crude oil prices are directly reflected on oil revenues and thus on the volume of public expenditures, which affects the economic growth.

Analyzing and Measuring the Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Economic Growth in Iraq for The Period (2004-2022)

This study investigated the exchange rate on Iraq’s economic growth situation. It examined the exchange rate’s effect on GDP, GNP, and INF. An ex-post facto research design was used to collect secondary data from the Central Bank of Iraq and macro trends Statistical Bulletin from 1 January 2004 to 30 November 2022. Hypoth- esis analysis used Least Squares. Exchange rates affect GDP, GNP, and INF. As a result, GDP can be used as an essential basis for economic development, and the GNP is a vital factor for economic infrastructure to change people’s living conditions. The exchange rate positively and significantly impacted GDP, and the analysis sug- gests a significant association between the independent and dependent variables, except for GNP. The study rec- ommends that Iraq’s currency authority manage exchange rates in response to the U.S. dollar to boost economic growth. Price stability can also boost Iraqi economic growth, boosting the dinar’s value.

Measuring and Analyzing Selected Determinants of Public Debt in Iraq (2004-2019)

This study examines the measuring and analyzing selected determinants of public debt in Iraq from 2004 to 2019. It first reviews the major events that led to deterioration of the state’s capacity in preventing risky borrow- ings before the fall of the Ba’ath regime. It then turns to the period under study, and applies the Fully Modified OLS )FMOLS( cointegration framework based on data from the central bank of Iraq. The main results show that public debt has been caused by a mixture of factors including a small share of non-oil revenue, increasing operational expenditure at the expense of investment expenditure by the government, and the ISIS attack. It also touches on the link between sectarianism and public debt, and explores the burden of debt services on ac- cumulating public debt. It concludes that there is always a risk of increasing budget deficit; thus, a proper plan for managing public debt is vital to prevent a debt default.

Evaluating The Performance of People in the Central Bank of Iraq (Cbi) According to the European Excellence Model

Purpose: This research seeks to measure the possibility of applying People Standards (enabling factors) and people results in Standard (results) in the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI), by the EFQM Excellence Model. Theoretical framework: The purpose of applying the EFQM Excellence Model standard in this investigation is to present a self-evaluation framework, allowing strength determination for each organization and establishing those areas where additional enhancements need to be made. Many recommendations are found in the literature concerning the application of the EFQM Excellence Model standard to identify and resolve issues and problem areas within organizational management. Design/methodology/approach: We analysed the data for the year (2021) checklist that is collected through visits and meetings with the Total Quality Management Department in the bank, where the bank is working to implement standards for evaluating institutional performance in the bank’s departments, in accordance with international standards and experiences, including the (EFQM) model, and is also working to develop standards for evaluating individual performance. Findings: The volume of research has been increasing over the past nineteen years, although there are only a few authors, institutions and reference journals contributing to the topic’s consolidation and the countries conducting the most joint research in co-authoring EFQM for the largest volume of publications, authors and impact journals. Research, Practical & Social implications: We used the suggested model to evaluate people's performance and to investigate the existing gaps between the desired and current situation of human resources within the Central Bank of Iraq. Within the People axis, two of the derived scores met EFQM standards as very excellent. Researchers found that the People Results axis had the lowest score, which indicates that the distance between these regions and the ideal condition is considerable. Originality/value: The results confirm the People Standard who got (86%) to be superior to that of the People results Standard who got (36%). The People Standard will contribute in the same way to improving people results; therefore, a balanced approach to developing the people results criterion will allow for the CBI to achieve the best competitive advantage from the EFQM Excellence Model.

Using the Agile Internal Audit Work Method and its Reflection on the Sustainable Development Report- By Application to a Sample of Economic Units Listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange

The research aims to study the use of the agile internal audit work method and its reflection on the dimensions of sustainable development. To achieve the goal of the research, the two researchers prepared a questionnaire consisting of a set of questions to test the research hypothesis, which states (there is no statistically significant effect relationship between the method of agile internal audit work on the sustainable development report). 6) Private banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, which number 69, after reviewing the periodic reports prepared by the Central Bank of Iraq. The two researchers reached a set of conclusions, the most important of which is the absence of an influence relationship between the agile internal audit work style and the sustainable development report of the research sample banks, and this proves the research hypothesis (there is no statistically significant effect relationship between the agile internal audit work style on the sustainable development report). The researchers presented a set of recommendations, the most important of which is the continuous attention to the periodic reports prepared by the agile internal audit team, as it is one of the important steps in determining the start of auditing the elements and activities of the highest importance and ending them, and then starting to audit the elements and activities of less importance and the need to streamline the procedures of the annual traditional internal audit plan. To get results faster and less time, as well as preparing internal auditor reports periodically within a short period of time.