Areas Of Central Asia Research Articles

Integrated spatial priority assessment in Central Asia: Bridging biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human activities

Central Asia (CA) faces escalating threats from increasing temperatures, glacier retreat, biodiversity loss, unsustainable water use, terminal lake shrinkage, and soil salinization, all of which challenge the balance between ecological integrity and socio-economic development essential for achieving sustainable development goals. However, a comprehensive understanding of priority areas from a multi-dimensional perspective is lacking, hindering effective conservation and development strategies. To address this, we developed a comprehensive assessment framework with a tailored indicator system, enabling a spatial evaluation of CA's priority areas by integrating biodiversity, ecosystem services (ESs), and human activities. Combining zonation and geographical detectors, this approach facilitates spatial prioritization and examines ecological and socio-economic heterogeneity. Our findings reveal a heterogeneous distribution of priority areas across CA, with significant concentrations in eastern mountainous regions, river valleys, and oasis agricultural lands. We identified 184 key districts crucial for ecological and societal sustainability. Attribution analysis shows that natural factors like soil types, precipitation, and evapotranspiration significantly shape these areas, influencing human activities and the distribution of biodiversity and ESs. Multi-dimensional analysis indicates existing protected areas cover only 15% of the top 30% priority areas, revealing substantial conservation gaps. Additionally, a 38% overlap between ESs and human activities, along with 63.25% congruence in integrated areas, underscores significant human impacts on ecological systems and their dependency on ESs. Given CA's limited resources, it is crucial to implement measures that strengthen conservation efforts, align ecological preservation with socio-economic demands, and enhance resource efficiency through sustainable integrated land and water resource management.

Fossil pollen data can reconstruct robust spatial patterns of biodiversity in the past

Fossil pollen data are valuable for understanding past spatio-temporal variations in plant diversity. However, deducing robust patterns of fossil pollen-assemblage properties is challenging due to factors related to pollen production, dispersal, and fossilisation; sediment sampling; and nomenclature and taxonomy of the fossil pollen grains reflecting the vegetation that produced them. If the composition pattern of the most recent fossil pollen assemblage concords with those in modern or surface pollen assemblages from the same location(s), the pattern can be regarded as robust.Using recent (50–500 years) fossil pollen and surface pollen assemblages of angiosperms compiled from the same geographic area of Central Asia, we analyse spatial patterns in compositional turnover and phylogenetic dispersion. These are widely used to quantify different aspects of plant diversity.Despite differences in the data regarding spatial coverage, number of pollen records, and number of pollen taxa, the spatial pattern in the modern and fossil pollen-assemblage properties across climate zones is broadly similar. Especially, the latitudinal patterns of pollen-assemblage properties are strikingly similar between both data types. However, the degree of concordance varies according to the diversity metric being analysed, and the magnitudes of the metric may differ between both data types. When the data are compiled, processed, and standardised following consistent criteria and analysed using appropriate metrics and methods, spatial patterns in pollen-assemblage properties of fossil pollen data are as robust as those in surface pollen data (∼modern vegetation). Therefore, regional patterns of compositional turnover and phylogenetic dispersion can be confidently inferred from older fossil assemblages through the Holocene.

The heterogeneity of human flood adaptation characteristics in Central Asia based on human-flood distance

The Central Asian region is subject to frequent seasonal floods, resulting in substantial losses. These recurrent floods have induced certain changes in human flood adaptation characteristics in Central Asia, an area that is currently under-researched. This study, grounded in meticulously simulated flood inundation outcomes, multisource population distribution data, and flood protection infrastructure data, introduces an improved approach to calculating the distance between human and flood (HFD) and investigates human flood adaptation characteristics in Central Asia. Our findings indicate that residents in Central Asia get close to flood-prone areas from 1970 to 2007, with the exceptions of Turkmenistan (TKM) and Kyrgyzstan (KGZ). Notably, this trend is particularly pronounced in regions such as Xinjiang, China, and Tajikistan (TJK). An intricate exponential increase is observed in the population exposed to floods as the HFD decreases. Under future scenarios, KGZ exhibits the most significant trend of staying away from flood-prone areas, while TJK presents the opposite trend, and TKM experiences minimal changes. Additionally, compared with urban areas, rural areas of Central Asia exhibit a trend towards approaching floods. This study underscores the optimum nature of human flood adaptation when the HFD reaches 4.23 km, showing the potential for substantial benefits by implementing population evacuation within this threshold buffer zone. These insights highlight the complex interplay between human behaviours and floods and can inform the formulation of effective flood risk mitigation strategies.

Alhagi honey polysaccharide ameliorates ulcerative colitis by modulating gut microbiota–tryptophan metabolism via AhR activation

AbstractAlhagi honey (AH) is produced in arid and hot areas of Central Asia, and its polysaccharides (AP) are widely known for their activity in the treatment of intestinal diseases such as diarrhea. However, the therapeutic potential and mechanism of AP in ulcerative colitis (UC) remain unclear. Here, AH polysaccharide‐2 (AP2), a polysaccharide with the highest content in AP, was isolated and evaluated for its effects on dextran sulfate sodium (DSS)‐induced UC in mice. AP2 was found to alleviate UC symptoms and regulate gut microbiota dysbiosis by decreasing Helicobacter levels and increasing Lactobacillus levels. Analysis of PICRUSt2 predicted that AP2 may regulate carbohydrate and amino acid metabolism, and metabolomic analysis confirmed that AP2 promotes the metabolism of tryptophan to produce kynurenic acid (kyna). Moreover, kyna acted as an aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) ligand, which activated AhR to increase the expression of the tight junction proteins claudin‐1 and occludin. Interestingly, AP2 showed similar effects in protecting the intestinal barrier and alleviating colitis as the AhR agonist 6‐formylindolo[3,2‐b]carbazole, and the AhR antagonist CH223191 partially blocked the therapeutic effect of AP2 in UC mice, indicating that the anti‐UC effect of AP2 was AhR dependent. These findings demonstrate that AP2 alleviates UC by regulating the gut microbiota and promoting tryptophan metabolism to generate kyna‐activated AhR. The insights gained from this study could help in the future development of AP2 as a drug candidate or functional food for the treatment of UC.

Combined Effects of Meteorological Factors, Terrain, and Greenhouse Gases on Vegetation Phenology in Arid Areas of Central Asia from 1982 to 2021

Spatiotemporal variations in Central Asian vegetation phenology provide insights into arid ecosystem behavior and its response to environmental cues. Nevertheless, comprehensive research on the integrated impact of meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, saturation vapor pressure deficit), topography (slope, aspect, elevation), and greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide) on the phenology of Central Asian vegetation remains insufficient. Utilizing methods such as partial correlation and structural equation modeling, this study delves into the direct and indirect influences of climate, topography, and greenhouse gases on the phenology of vegetation. The results reveal that the start of the season decreased by 0.239 days annually, the length of the season increased by 0.044 days annually, and the end of the season decreased by 0.125 days annually from 1982 to 2021 in the arid regions of Central Asia. Compared with topography and greenhouse gases, meteorological factors are the dominant environmental factors affecting interannual phenological changes. Temperature and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) have become the principal meteorological elements influencing interannual dynamic changes in vegetation phenology. Elevation and slope primarily regulate phenological variation by influencing the VPD and soil moisture, whereas aspect mainly affects the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation phenology by influencing precipitation and temperature. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of how various environmental factors collectively influence the phenology of vegetation, thereby fostering a more profound exploration of the intricate response relationships of terrestrial ecosystems to environmental changes.

Plant populations at the edge of species’ distribution range: Characterization of central versus peripheral population traits

Related to the ongoing climate change, more and more attention has been paid on small sized, range edge populations. These populations are not only geographically marginal, but they usually live at the limits of their ecological tolerance and therefore have higher ecological plasticity. While these range edge populations may play primarily role in the reorganized biomes during the climate change the study on the morphological-phenological traits and population diversity as well as evolutionary history are prioritized. Distribution of many plant species native to the south-eastern regions of Europe extends towards the plains and mountainous areas of Central Asia. Our comparative studies including Plantago maxima, Rhodiola rosea and Tulipa sylvestris aim at detecting specific traits and diversity patterns of populations living on distant geographic sites, or at central versus peripheral locations.

Impact of climate change on migration trends in rural Central Asia

Central Asia is considered a region highly vulnerable to climate change impact and susceptible to climate-induced migration. Rural populations throughout the region are particularly at risk of experiencing adverse effects of climate variability and (im) mobility due to increased exposure to environmental hazards and distress that can severely affect agricultural productivity. This paper explores how climate change impacts migration trends in rural areas of Central Asia with an aim to contribute to the research on climate mobility in the region focusing on most vulnerable inhabitants. By examining the ongoing region's environmental degradation with increased aridity and retreating glaciers that affect local agriculture, water and food security, this paper suggests possible outcomes of such effects on rural mobility trends across five Central Asian countries.

Study on the Aral Sea crisis from the risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and organochlorine pesticides in surface water of Amu Darya river basin in Uzbekistan

The Amu Darya River, as one of the important flows of the Aral Sea located in the semi-arid area of Central Asia, also performed as the primary water supply for Uzbekistan. Therefore, the residues and risks of anthropogenic-related persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in waters of the Amu Darya River were conducted in the present study to elucidate their possible effects on the water safety in such a specific area as well as on the Aral Sea Crisis from a new perspective. Thirty-nine water samples distributed along the Amu Darya River to the coastal of the Aral Sea were analyzed for both polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) occurrence, showing the total concentrations of ΣOCPs and ΣPAHs in the range of 1.16–22.75 ng/L and 3.18–506.26 ng/L, respectively. Spatial differences showed higher levels for both OCPs and PAHs along the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River due to intense human activities. Source identification performed by isomer ratios indicated that dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) probably originated from recent use, while hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), chlordanes, and endosulfans originated mainly from historical usage. Furthermore, the principal component analysis showed PAHs were from coal and petroleum combustion (65.2%), biomass combustion (27.2%), and industrial chemical combustion (7.64%). The human health risk assessment demonstrated no carcinogenic or non-carcinogenic risks at present. However, moderate to high ecological risks to aquatic organisms especially were observed along the lower reaches, especially the delta area. The results obtained would not only provide important basic data for such a semi-arid area but also show us the possible toxic effects induced by such pollutants, which should attract more attention in the shrinking case of the Aral Sea.

About Ancient Eastern and Eurasian Migrations to Central Asia

The article considers some questions of studying the migrations to Central Asia that proceeded in the Neolithic, Eneolithic and Bronze ages. An important place in the study of the theme belongs to the archaeological data obtained as a result of researches of scientists of different generations. The purpose – the general characteristic of a condition of a problem, the analysis of separate sights and approaches. The attempt of systematization of migrations according to their volume, a degree of settlement of the come population in various areas of Central Asia and spatial (geographical) attributes is carried out, on maps the directions of transit movement, trade and cultural communications are shown. The further perspective of the theme is seen in improving the typology of migrations and their mapping on the basis of archaeological materials.

Anthropogenic activities and the influence of desertification processes on the water cycle and water use in the Aral Sea basin

Study regionThe Aral Sea Basin (ASB) is a transboundary water catchment area in Central Asia, with an area of around 1.8 million km2 and straddled over six countries namely Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan. Study focusThis research investigated the associated controls of anthropogenic activities and desertification process on the water cycle in the ASB, produced long-term spatial maps, quantified and evaluated the changes in the water surface, volume and water level of the Aral Sea Lake, agricultural water yield and water use efficiency based on multiple streams of state-of-art high-resolution imageries, reanalyzed and in-situ observations during 1986–2022. New hydrological insights for the regionThe main findings of this research are as follows: (i) The Aral Sea Lake was characterized by sharp decline trends in the water surface area, volume and water level with the annual decreasing rates of approximately 1.02 × 103 km2.yr−1, 9.59 km3.yr−1 and 1.14 m. yr−1, respectively; (ii) Agricultural water yield indicated an overall annual decreasing rate of 0.45 mm. yr−1; (iii) Based on the imbalance between agricultural water demand and water supply, these results showed that the ASB has an annual water deficit for agricultural irrigation of approximately 0.071 km3.yr−1 and this water deficit has significantly affected wheat production in Kyrgyzstan and slightly in Afghanistan and Turkmenistan. (iv) The assessment of water threats shows that anthropogenic activities strongly influence the water cycle in the ASB compared to the factors of the desertification process. These results are of great importance and have significant implications for decision makers for future ecohydrological studies and water management in Central Asia and other hotspots of the global drylands.

Moisture sources for precipitation over the Pamirs Plateau in winter and spring

AbstractThe abundant precipitation over Pamirs Plateau (PP) in spring and winter plays a vital role in the water resources over the arid areas of Central Asia. Understanding the moisture sources and water vapour transportation associated with precipitation are very important, but there were few studies investigating the moisture sources of PP. We used a Lagrangian model driven with the Weather Research and Forecasting output to analyse the moisture sources at Northern Pamirs Plateau (NPP) and Southern Pamirs Plateau (SPP) in spring 2016, 2009 and 2001, and in winter 2016, 2010 and 2017, as the seasonal precipitation in PP was the largest, median and lowest during 2001 to 2018, and the precipitation in spring and winter was much higher than that in summer and autumn. The moisture sources from four regions were quantified: Atlantic‐Europe‐Africa, Arctic‐Northern Asia, Indian Ocean, and moisture recycling from the PP. Atlantic‐Europe‐Africa and Indian Ocean are the dominant moisture source regions in spring and winter, which contribute more than 70% to the total moisture affecting the precipitation at PP. The contributions of Indian Ocean are higher at SPP than those at NPP in spring and winter. The contributions from Arctic‐Northern Asia and PP are generally low, except that the moisture from PP region contributed 19% to the spring precipitation at NPP, indicating the importance of a local moisture source in enhancing the spring precipitation at NPP. The moisture contributions originating from the different source regions show great differences between winter and spring. The moisture transportation is affected by westerlies, and the zonal winds in spring affect the moisture transportation, while the meridional winds over the Arabian Peninsula mainly affect the moisture transportation in winter.

Ecoregional and Phytogeographical Insights into the Distribution of Tulipa in the ‘Nature Imperiled’ Area of Central Asia for Effective Conservation

Tulipa L. (Liliaceae) comprises approximately 150 species. Although Central Asia, the main center of its diversity, includes around 66 species, detailed mapping of their distribution is limited and research on their ecoregional and phytogeographical dispersion is insufficient. This study aimed to map and analyze the distribution patterns of Tulipa across the Central Asian ecoregions and phytogeographical regions to identify potential hotspots for effective conservation efforts. The results identified the Gissaro-Alai open woodlands ecoregion, which hosts 41 species of Tulipa, as the leading hotspot ecoregion. The Ferghana Valley phytogeographical district (Afghano-Turkestan province) was found to be the most suitable habitat for 25 species of Tulipa. We also determined that altitude has a strong influence on the diversity of Tulipa and indicating increase of species richness as elevation rises. However, as elevation rises up from ca. 2000 m a.s.l. species richness also decreases slightly. An analysis of the distribution of sections of Tulipa in Central Asia revealed that around 61% of all species dwell in this area and that the sections Kolpakowskianae and Biflores, which have their greatest diversity of species, are specific to this area. The findings provide valuable insights into the distribution of Tulipa and allow for feasible recommendations and suggestions for their conservation.

Evaluation of the water conservation function in the Ili River Delta of Central Asia based on the InVEST model

The Ili River Delta (IRD) is an ecological security barrier for the Lake Balkhash and an important water conservation area in Central Asia. In this study, we selected the IRD as a typical research area, and simulated the water yield and water conservation from 1975 to 2020 using the water yield module of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model. We further analyzed the temporal and spatial variations in the water yield and water conservation in the IRD from 1975 to 2020, and investigated the main driving factors (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, land use/land cover change, and inflow from the Ili River) of the water conservation variation based on the linear regression, piecewise linear regression, and Pearson’s correlation coefficient analyses. The results indicated that from 1975 to 2020, the water yield and water conservation in the IRD showed a decreasing trend, and the spatial distribution pattern was “high in the east and low in the west”; overall, the water conservation of all land use types decreased slightly. The water conservation volume of grassland was the most reduced, although the area of grassland increased owing to the increased inflow from the Ili River. At the same time, the increased inflow has led to the expansion of wetland areas, the improvement of vegetation growth, and the increase of regional evapotranspiration, thus resulting in an overall reduction in the water conservation. The water conservation depth and precipitation had similar spatial distribution patterns; the change in climate factors was the main reason for the decline in the water conservation function in the delta. The reservoir in the upper reaches of the IRD regulated runoff into the Lake Balkhash, promoted vegetation restoration, and had a positive effect on the water conservation; however, this positive effect cannot offset the negative effect of enhanced evapotranspiration. These results provide a reference for the rational allocation of water resources and ecosystem protection in the IRD.

Soils of Lacustrine Depressions of Pulsing Chloride Lakes in Endorheic Areas of Central Asia: Morphology, Physicochemical, and Geochemical Features

Soils of Lacustrine Depressions of Pulsing Chloride Lakes in Endorheic Areas of Central Asia: Morphology, Physicochemical, and Geochemical Features

Soil bacterial communities in alpine wetlands in arid Central Asia remain stable during the seasonal freeze–thaw period

Under the background of climate change, freeze–thaw patterns tend to be turbulent: ecosystem function processes and their mutual feedback mechanisms with microorganisms in sensitive areas around the world are currently a hot topic of research. We studied changes of soil properties in alpine wetlands located in arid areas of Central Asia during the seasonal freeze–thaw period (which included an initial freezing period, a deep freezing period, and a thawing period), and analyzed changes in soil bacterial community diversity, structure, network in different stages with the help of high-throughput sequencing technology. The results showed that the α diversity of the soil bacterial community showed a continuous decreasing trend during the seasonal freeze–thaw period. The relative abundance of dominant bacterial groups (Proteobacteria (39.04%–41.28%) and Bacteroidota (14.61%–20.12%)) did not change significantly during the freeze–thaw period. At the genus level, different genera belonging to the same phylum dominated in different stages, or there were clusters of genera belonging to different phylum. For example, g_Ellin6067, g_unclassified_f_Geobacteraceae, g_unclassified_f_Gemmatimonadaceae coexisted in the same cluster, belonging to Proteobacteria, Desulfobacterota and Gemmatimonadota respectively, and their abundance increased significantly during the freezing period. This “adaptive freeze–thaw” phylogenetic model suggests a heterogeneous stress resistance of bacteria during the freeze–thaw period. In addition, network analysis showed that, although the bacterial network was affected to some extent by environmental changes during the initial freezing period and its recovery in the thawing period lagged behind, the network complexity and stability did not change much as a whole. Our results prove that soil bacterial communities in alpine wetlands are highly resistant and adaptive to seasonal freeze–thaw conditions. As far as we know, compared with short-term freeze–thaw cycles research, this is the first study examining the influence of seasonal freeze–thaw on soil bacterial communities in alpine wetlands. Overall, our findings provide a solid base for further investigations of biogeochemical cycle processes under future climate change.

The Reterritorialisation of Pontic Greeks in Germany and the Modernisation of Tradition

Greeks have a long diasporic history that demonstrates significant examples of all major diaspora classifications. Pontic Greeks of the Black Sea in particular, represent an excellent example of non-static diasporic typology. Starting as an imperial diaspora they were transformed to a victim diaspora, when forcefully expelled from their native lands in north-eastern Anatolia, seeking refuge in Greece and in areas of central Asia that were later annexed by the Soviet Union. Greece’s socioeconomic environment, during the better part of the twentieth century, was proven insufficient to support the full integration of refugees, while those Pontic Greeks who found themselves behind the Iron Curtain, were subjected to further victimization. In 1960 Greece signed a bilateral agreement with West Germany, allowing its citizens to seek Gastarbeiter employment, resulting in the formation of a Greek labour diaspora in the country, of which an estimated one third self-identifies as culturally Pontic. After Greece’s induction in the European Communities, but especially in the post-Maastricht era, the migratory regime for Greeks in Germany changed to that of European-expatriation, therefore progressively transforming their labour diaspora to a cultural one. From imperial, to victim, to labour, to cultural, Pontic Diaspora underwent a long process of reterritorialisation, in their journey from Anatolia to Germany.

Dominant modes and mechanisms of the interannual variability of atmospheric water vapor content during winter over Central Asia

Atmospheric water vapor content (WVC)—a key component of the water cycle—plays a crucial role as an indicator of precipitation changes and directly influences precipitation in the arid areas of Central Asia. These areas are extremely sensitive to global climate change because of their dry climates and fragile water resource systems, especially during winter. This study analyzes the main interannual variation patterns of the atmospheric WVC during winter over Central Asia and reveals the possible physical mechanism behind the changes in the dominant modes (EOF1 and EOF2) of water vapor. The results show that EOF1 (49.4%)—responsible for the interannual variation of the winter atmospheric WVC in Central Asia—has a uniform monopole mode, while EOF2 (23.7%) shows a reverse north–south dipole distribution (with the boundary being at approximately 44° N). The negative geopotential height anomaly over the high latitudes of Europe and the positive geopotential height anomaly over Central Asia are the major impact factors of EOF1, whereas Central Asia has a prevalence of westerly airflow during winter. By influencing the geopotential height anomaly in Central Asia, the winter Niño 3.4 index intensifies the convergence of Atlantic Ocean moisture with tropical Indian Ocean moisture and their eastward transport. In contrast, EOF2 is mainly affected by the positive geopotential height anomaly over the high latitudes of Europe and the negative geopotential height anomaly over the middle latitudes of this region. In particular, the negative anomaly center of the geopotential height on the eastern side of Central Asia extends westward into Central Asia, resulting in reverse moisture transport by westerly and easterly airflows in the southern and northern parts of Central Asia, respectively. This anomaly is correlated with the formation of anomalous cyclonic circulation over North Africa and Europe because of the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, leading to prevailing southerly winds in the south of Central Asia, which correspond to abnormal vertical upward movement; however, the situation in the northern part of Central Asia is the opposite. Therefore, the distribution of winter precipitation in Central Asia shows the following pattern: more in the south and less in the north. This study provides scientific and technological support for the formation of research mechanisms and the prediction of winter precipitation in Central Asia.

SCO and the US: Convergence and Divergence of Interests

There were six autonomous Muslim countries in the area following the collapse of the USSR. They still had economic and security issues and were undeveloped. Together with China and Russia, three Central Asian states Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan have agreed to establish an organization to settle their border disputes and address security concerns. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), was established as a defence alliance in 2001 to combat three evils (terrorism, extremism, and separatism). Due to the abundance of natural resources in the Central Asian region, regional and extra-regional powers also wish to demonstrate their presence in the area for the sake of their own national interests. By analyzing the secondary sources of data, it has been established that SCO has the capacity to make use of local resources.The USA wants to establish its influence in the Central Asian area as a superpower. The major countries have hegemonic aspirations in the area, particularly Russia, China, and the USA. The SCO and the USA do not directly oppose one another. A conflict between the US and the SCO members may result from the USA's backing for the democratic movement in the Central Asian States.

JOURNEY THROUGHCENTRALASIA: DEVELOPINGASPARSEGEO-SOCIAL LOCATION-BASEDAND PREFERENCE-AWARE RECOMMENDER SYSTEMS

The rapid growth of location-based services (LBS) has resulted in an increasing demand for personalized and context-aware recommendations. This study aims to develop a sparse geo- social location-based and preference-aware recommender system to provide accurate and relevant suggestions for users in remote areas of Central Asia. We propose a novel framework that integrates geographical, social, and preference information to address the challenges of data sparsity and user mobility in these regions. The proposed model is evaluated through extensive experiments on real- world datasets, demonstrating its effectiveness in improving recommendation quality. Furthermore, the research highlights the potential applications of the proposed system in promoting sustainable tourism, preserving cultural heritage, and fostering social cohesion in Central Asia.

Uncertainties of Climate Change on Suitable Habitat of Calligonum mongolicum Turcz. (Polygonaceae) in Desert Areas of Central Asia

Understanding the climatically suitable habitat of species plays a vital role in the sustainable use and management of target species. Calligonum mongolicum Turcz., a native shrub species found in desert areas of Central Asia, is generally considered as one of the top four tree species for desertification control. However, previous works on suitable habitat simulation had focused mainly on either the national or specific geographical scales rather than entire biota scales, which have underestimated the climatic tolerance of the species. Furthermore, the uncertainty outcomes of climate change were largely ignored. With these questions, the arid regions of Central Asia were selected as our research background area. Occurrence data of C. mongolicum were obtained from various sources, such as the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, the Chinese Virtual Herbarium, and the iPlant website. The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to simulate the suitable habitat change dynamics under various climate change scenarios [5 general circulation models (GCMs) × 3 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)]. The uncertainty of climate change induced by GCMs and SSPs were decomposed by the two-way ANOVA method. Our results show that hydrological-related variables are more important for the species’ habitat suitability than thermal-related variables. The climatic threshold for the core suitable habitat was 1–30 mm for precipitation of the coldest quarter, 14–401 mm for annual precipitation, −16.01–12.42 °C for mean temperature of the driest quarter, 9.48–32.63 °C for mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and −25.01–−9.77 °C for the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The size of suitable habitat was about 287.4 × 104 km2 under the current climate condition, located in China and Mongolia. Climate change has less impact on the total area size, but it has bigger impacts on the gain area and loss area sizes. The loss area is mainly located in the southeast boundaries, whereas the gain area is mainly located in Mongolia and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The decomposition uncertainty of climate change indicates that GCMs could explain 14.5%, 66.4%, and 97.0% of total variation, respectively, and SSPs could explain 85.5%, 33.6%, and 3.0% of the total variation for gain, loss, and total habitat sizes, respectively. Our work clearly demonstrates that while C. mongolicum has great planting potential in Central Asia under various climate change scenarios, the sensitive areas possess large uncertainties requiring long-term climate monitoring for afforestation projects.