The heterogeneity of human flood adaptation characteristics in Central Asia based on human-flood distance

Abstract

The Central Asian region is subject to frequent seasonal floods, resulting in substantial losses. These recurrent floods have induced certain changes in human flood adaptation characteristics in Central Asia, an area that is currently under-researched. This study, grounded in meticulously simulated flood inundation outcomes, multisource population distribution data, and flood protection infrastructure data, introduces an improved approach to calculating the distance between human and flood (HFD) and investigates human flood adaptation characteristics in Central Asia. Our findings indicate that residents in Central Asia get close to flood-prone areas from 1970 to 2007, with the exceptions of Turkmenistan (TKM) and Kyrgyzstan (KGZ). Notably, this trend is particularly pronounced in regions such as Xinjiang, China, and Tajikistan (TJK). An intricate exponential increase is observed in the population exposed to floods as the HFD decreases. Under future scenarios, KGZ exhibits the most significant trend of staying away from flood-prone areas, while TJK presents the opposite trend, and TKM experiences minimal changes. Additionally, compared with urban areas, rural areas of Central Asia exhibit a trend towards approaching floods. This study underscores the optimum nature of human flood adaptation when the HFD reaches 4.23 km, showing the potential for substantial benefits by implementing population evacuation within this threshold buffer zone. These insights highlight the complex interplay between human behaviours and floods and can inform the formulation of effective flood risk mitigation strategies.