Central And Eastern Europe States Research Articles

Actual features of trade in mechanical engineering products between Russia and the countries of the Central-Eastern Europe

Aim. To identify key features and trends in the process of trade in engineering products between Russia and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2020-2022.Tasks. To analyze the dynamics of Russia’s trade relations with CEE countries in the field of mechanical engineering (including electronics and electrical engineering) under sanctions; identify the main commodity groups in the structure of the mechanical engineering sector in trade between Russia and CEE countries; identify the impact of Western sanctions on trade in mechanical engineering products between Russia and CEE countries.Methods. The authors used such research methods as statistical analysis, observation, generalization, description and graphic modeling.Results. The results obtained in the analysis indicate that the export of machine-building products of CEE states prevails over the corresponding Russian exports to this region. The sanctions conditions have determined an unfavorable long-term trend in the trade of engineering products between Russia and CEE countries.Conclusions. The trade and economic indicators analyzed in this article have demonstrated a decline in the volume of trade interaction between Russia and the CEE countries in the machine-building sphere, especially the sharp decline in exports of the states of the region to Russia. Under the conditions of sanctions, both sides incur economic losses, which are higher for the CEE states. By freezing trade relations with Russia, the CEE countries are deprived of existing benefits and an occupied niche in the Russian market. Moreover, it will be difficult for the states of this region to find new markets for engineering products and to compensate for the losses due to the refusal of exports to Russia.

Participation of populist radical right parties in coalition governments of Central and Eastern Europe: do national party systems matter?

ABSTRACT Explanations of how populist radical right parties (PRRPs) get into government, especially in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), have so far received limited scholarly attention. This article explores the conditions of PRRPs’ cabinet inclusion in CEE from the perspective of national party systems by examining 34 instances of coalition government formation in 11 CEE states during 2000–2019 using fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The inferred causal paths demonstrate that PRRPs join coalition cabinets in party systems, in which they either perform the role of “radical but necessary partners” or serve as the “like-minded juniors” for formateur parties.

Competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption: evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

Research background: The transformations induced by global challenges call for new approaches towards competitiveness and thus require a consistent rethinking of strategies and mechanisms so that they could be better adapted to the constantly changing context. Prior to the European Union (EU) accession, the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states began a broad process of economic reforms, including trade liberalization, mass privatization, exchange rate liberalization, all of which led to a wider opening to new markets, the creation of new opportunities for production and to ensuring the competitiveness of companies on foreign markets. By far, the most important step in the post-communist period was joining the EU, achieved after 2004. Over time, these states have faced, on the one hand, issues related to addressing systemic vulnerabilities, and on the other hand, finding the most appropriate measures to induce competitiveness. The influence of public policies on competitiveness is still an issue that needs to be debated, our study proposing to examine the reaction of external competitiveness to the increase of government spending and corruption. Purpose of the article: The aim of this paper is to analyze the impact of fiscal policies and corruption on the external competitiveness of the eleven countries from Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) for the period 1995?2020. The choice of this time interval is to better capture the trinomial relationship between competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption before and after the process of integration of the CEE states into the EU. Methods: The methodology chosen is based on ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) with structural breaks, the period taken into account being 1995?2020. The Unit root test of augmented Dickey?Fuller ADF (2016) was used to assess the time series stationarity. The test developed by Bai and Perron (2003) is applied to detect structural breaks, by resorting to the LM test. The tests for the cointegration between the considered variables, using the ARDL model, proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001), were also part of the research. The causality test of Granger et al. (2000) was used to assess the conditionality between the indicators. By applying these methods, it was highlighted that, especially after 2007, in the states under analysis, expansionary fiscal policies have led to internal devaluations of the currency, which ultimately increased external competitiveness, measured as real effective exchange rate. Instead, corruption has a negative impact on competitiveness. Findings & value added: The obtained results point out the relationship between competitiveness, fiscal policy and corruption in CEE countries. In the case of those that have a high competitiveness, even if there are large government expenditures, there is also an economic environment conducive to the implementation of measures that generate added value on a large scale. Conversely, in countries where corruption is high, the impact of government fiscal policies on competitiveness is reduced due to the negative effects caused by this phenomenon. Our study brings at least two contributions to the literature. First of all, the research shows how a growth in public spending affects the competitiveness of CEE economies through the real exchange rate. Secondly, it takes into account the phenomenon of corruption applied to Eastern countries, emphasizing a decrease in the external competitiveness of these economies in response to the manifestation of corruption.

Diffusion of Influence? Detecting China’s Footprint in Foreign Policies of Other Countries

“Chinese influence” has become a hot topic among politicians, media, and pundits. Academic studies dealing with the subject, however, generally take a much more cautious position. This paper suggests an innovative approach of studying political influence using data from the UN General Assembly voting and speech records. Utilizing the latest advancements in natural language processing (NLP), we show how to estimate, quantify, and visualise foreign policy positions using raw textual data. In Europe, it has been argued that China’s growing presence and activity in Central and Eastern European states (CEE) undermines “European unity” as the region allegedly starts shifting towards Beijing. We adopt the CEE region as a case study of China’s potential influence and highlight the positioning of CEE countries towards China, Germany, and the U.S. by visualizing the proximities among them over time. We find no evidence that the CEE countries are strategically pivoting towards China. We have controlled for known positions and trends of other countries from elsewhere in the world to strengthen the case for our methodological approach.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s41111-022-00217-5.

Problems and prospects of export diversification of countries of Central and Eastern Europe (calculations based on econometric analysis)

Aim. The work aimed to identify the explanatory factors that determine the level of export diversification of countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in 2010–2021.Tasks. The work was performed to analyze theoretical aspects of export diversification of Eastern European countries; analyze the dynamics of changes in the volumes and structure of exports of the CEE states; assess the main factors influencing the process of export diversification in the countries of the region under consideration, and identify possible prospects for its further development.Methods. The author used such research methods as statistical analysis, observation, econometric analysis, generalization, description, graphical modeling and data classification.Results. The econometric analysis results suggest that there is a long-term relationship between export diversification and per capita gross domestic product, trade openness, human and physical capital accumulation, and foreign direct investment.Conclusion. The socio-economic indicators analyzed in this article are the main factors stimulating the process of export diversification in the CEE countries. During the study period of 2010–2021, the inflation rate showed a negative effect on the degree of export diversification in the CEE countries.

China and Central Europe: cooperation in difficult times during the Covid-19 outbreak

ABSTRACT The four Central and Eastern European (CEE) states, namely Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia, known as the Visegrad Group (V4), belong to the multilateral China-led 17 + 1 subregional platform that seeks to upgrade its members’ mutual economic and transportation infrastructure ties. This comparative case study traces the V4 states’ relations with China since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in Europe and explores how far the existing multilateral format 17 + 1 was able to utilize its potential for strengthening China’s presence through healthcare cooperation to work together in fighting the pandemic. The findings reveal the prevailing bilateral ties being preferred over the institutionalized multilateral platform 17 + 1, a sustained ambiguity in the CEE states’ relations with China, and a poor coherence of the 17 + 1 format.

Quo Vadis Cooperation Between China and Eastern Europe in the Era of COVID‐19?

The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) used to be quite buoyant about benefiting from China's economic largesse. A little over a year ago, China's cooperation with the region was brandished as a real feather in China's foreign policy cap. Today, however, the China‐CEE cooperation appears to be done with. This development has led many to question whether the China‐CEE cooperation has become a victim of the COVID‐19 pandemic. The answer provided here is: no, not at all! Most CEE states have been mulling a freeze in their participation for quite some time. In this respect, the pandemic has only accelerated the social distancing of CEE countries from China. The study suggests that the unrequited romance of China with the CEE region has important implications both for the country's public diplomacy and the post‐pandemic trajectories of the Belt and Road Initiative.

The Twenty Years’ Crisis of European Energy Security: Central and Eastern Europe and the US

ABSTRACT In the last twenty years the European energy security debate has been overwhelmingly focused on the energy security of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) states and on their relationship with Russia. The key issue has been Russia’s attempt to maintain its influence and control through its energy dependencies. The article argues that the problems encountered by the CEE states have been resolved to a large extent due to the actions taken by the European Commission (EC). The EC has played a vital role in providing a collective voice for CEE and in supporting their regional energy integration in order to reduce their vulnerability to external pressures from Russia. The article goes on to argue that while the issue of CEE energy dilemmas has been addressed this does not, however, mean that the European energy predicament regarding Russia has been fully resolved. The article contends that the European-Russian energy relationship is also conditioned by larger geopolitical concerns regarding the US-Russian relationship, NATO, as well as by Cold War legacies which have come to the surface in a cyclical manner. The Trump administration’s sharp criticism of new energy infrastructure projects constructed from Europe to Russia underscores this point. The article asserts that European energy security will remain problematic in the absence of a more general political settlement between Russia and the West.

Электоральная активность на муниципальных выборах в посткоммунистических странах

In this article, the electoral turnout in the municipal elections held in post-communist states is compared. Using correlation analysis, comparing electoral turnout and its change as well as municipal/national electoral gap, the authors reveal principal features of the electoral behavior in the local elections. The study shows that the electoral turnout is not affected by the level of political competition and a size of municipalities either in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) or in Russia. However, the turnout itself which is usually low can be explained with the use of the second-order elections theory. At the same time, the ongoing change does not prove the increasing number of disinterested or disappointed voters in some of the consolidated CEE democracies. On the contrary, a number of CEE states demonstrate a growing interest of voters towards a local government, sometimes by contrast with a real disappointment in national politics. Indeed, more successful democracies in the Northern part of Central and Eastern Europe usually deliver a higher turnout level. In Russian cities, the crucial influence of pro-regime mobilization is in evidence, while poorly developed civic culture of participation depresses the turnout. As a result, under conditions of weak interest of Russian authorities to boost turnout in the local elections, Russia experiences a natural decline in voter turnout also reflecting poor social efficiency of municipal authorities, which puts the country seriously behind CEE in terms of electoral turnout. Thus, the more successful consolidation of democracy in the CEE states has created a turning point between growing and falling interest in local elections in different states and/or cities depending on individual political developments at the national level. Meanwhile, Russia experiences its own “natural” development resulting in falling local turnout caused by the lack of interest both from local communities and authorities.

Stuck in second gear? EU integration and the evolution of Poland’s automotive industry

In contrast to dependent market economy (DME) literature, which argues that Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies serve primarily as assembly platforms for multinational corporations (MNCs) and try to meet their demands, this paper argues that CEE states have done much more than merely accommodating the interests of foreign investors. An analysis of the automotive sector in Poland reveals that the Polish state engaged actively in industrial policy to shape the profile of automotive production and to improve the country’s position in the automotive value chain. Instead of waiting for MNCs to establish backward linkages, it nurtured the rise of a supply industry with forward linkages in the automotive value chain, thus decreasing Poland’s dependence on lead MNCs. Moreover, this paper finds that while EU integration limited policy space for development, it also offered new developmental opportunities, which Polish state actors used to improve the international competitiveness of the sector.

The Political Economy of EU Climate and Energy Policies in Central and Eastern Europe Revisited: Shifting Coalitions and Prospects for Clean Energy Transitions

The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have commonly been regarded as climate and energy policy laggards blocking more ambitious EU decarbonization targets. Although recent literature has increasingly acknowledged the differences in national positions on energy and climate issues among these states, there has been little comprehensive evidence about their positioning on EU climate and energy policies and the domestic interests which shape government preferences. The article addresses this gap by tracing the voting behavior of six CEE countries (Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania) on EU energy-related legislation in the Council of Ministers between 2007–2018. The article shows that the contestation of energy policies, particularly of climate-related legislation, in the Council of Ministers has increased over time and that these six CEE countries have indeed most often objected to the adoption of EU legislation. The CEE states do not, however, have a common regional positioning on all EU energy policies. Voting coalitions among the six CEE countries differ substantially across energy policy areas. The lack of a common regional position and changing national preferences have enabled the adoption of a relatively ambitious EU Energy and Climate Package for 2030. The differences in national voting patterns are explained by the evolving interests and the ability of key domestic political and economic actors to adapt to and explore benefits from the ever-expanding EU energy and climate policies.

Objective and subjective determinants of self-rated health in Central and Eastern Europe: a multilevel approach.

Determinants of health in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have been discussed primarily in relation to the transition of the 1990's and early 2000's, citing lifestyles as the main culprit. This paper tries to draw a bigger picture of the health determinants in CEE in the first decade of the 21st century. To do so, the two main analytical approaches to health are united in one setting. One of them is based on the definition of health as a personal commodity relying mostly on micro-level subjective data. The other views health as a public commodity analysing objective societal characteristics and health care interventions with often a macro-level perspective. The current study incorporates these different approaches (subjective and objective) in a multi-level setting in CEE. The analysis concentrates on health care, social, political, and economic factors as determinants of self-rated health. Multilevel analysis is carried out on a dataset of Life in Transition Survey (LiTS), conducted in 2006 and 2010, pooled cross-sectional data on 46,546 individuals in 27 CEE states. They are accompanied by macro-level data. The findings demonstrate that a complex mix of determinants influences subjective health in CEE. There are clear differences in the way objective and subjective indicators influence self-rated health. While societal economic prosperity does not influence health, there are strong country-specific differences in the effect of individual prosperity on health. The study adds to the recent literature on health in CEE by introducing an encompassing systematic approach to analysing health, as no leading cause for self-rated health variation was found. This paper also contributes to research on the determinants of health by fusing objective and subjective determinants in a hierarchical setting. Both subjective and objective determinants matter for health.

Exploring the Gibson law in CEE countries using a time series approach

This study investigates the presence of the Gibson paradox in the transitional countries. The Gibson law has been a source of widespread academic discussion on the dynamics of long-term interest rates and the price level. Today the Gibson law re-emerges on the economic science stage since historically low-interest rates and deflationary pressures are present worldwide. This paper studies the correlation between cyclical components of interest rates and prices for CEE (Central and Eastern Europe) states over the 2000-2014 period. Empirical results show only a weak correlation between the cyclical components implying no long run (cointegrating) relationship between bond yields and prices. Evidence presented in the study shows Gibson law is not valid for the CEE states, advancing the possibility that fixed exchange regimes, lack of the gold reserves, and monetary stabilization policies are the forces driving the law outside the CEE area. The results show that Gibson paradox is not present in CEE states but also point to the possible non-linear nature of the paradox. In order to investigate the non-linear nature of the paradox in CEE, because of constant changes and adaptation of the monetary policies in CEE states, future studies should use a long memory approach. The paper shows limited theoretical explanation for the non-existent Gibson law in CEE economies but still advances an explanation – lack of gold reserves, fixed exchange regimes and restrictive monetary policy. Policy makers should monitor the nature of the paradox in relation to the historically low levels of interest rates in order to avoid or at least alleviate future financial crisis.

Renewable energy consumption and economic growth. Causality relationship in Central and Eastern European countries.

The new European model stipulates the achievement of an inclusive, sustainable and intelligent economic growth. Increasing the share of renewable energy is one of the factors that improve the quality of economic growth, similar to research, development and investment in human capital. In this paper we tested the correlation between economic growth and renewable energy consumption for ten European Union (EU) member states from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the period 1990–2014, using Auto-regressive and Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling procedure, a technique that captures causal relationships both on a short run and on a long run. The short run perspective reveals the transition towards a new energy paradigm, while the long run approach corresponds to the long-term equilibrium of the analyzed factors. Our results shows that, in the short run, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) dynamics are independent in Romania and Bulgaria, while in Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia an increasing renewable energy consumption improves the economic growth. The hypothesis of bi-directional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth is validated in the long run for both the whole group of analyzed countries as well as in the case of seven CEE states which were studied individually. These results allow us to look into the feasibility of the Europe 2020 goals regarding the increase of energy efficiency and to propose public policies to achieve these goals.

Perpetually “partly free”: lessons from post-soviet hybrid regimes on backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe

ABSTRACTThis article discusses the lessons that can be drawn from post-Soviet experiences of democratisation in hybrid regimes for debates on Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) “democratic backsliding”. Focusing on Moldova and Ukraine, the article investigates the ebb and flow of post-Soviet democratisation in hybrid regimes. It explores factors that have hindered democratisation, namely state and media capture by business-political interests, and factors that have hindered authoritarian consolidation, namely civil society and citizens’ potential for mobilisation. The article reflects on how these factors can inform debates on backsliding in more consolidated democracies, such as CEE states.

Forging a New “Eastern Bloc”

The China-led “16+1” initiative in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is crafting a soft version of the old East European bloc, this time under Chinese rather than Russian tutelage. A collection of sixteen bilateral, uneven relationships with China rather than a true regional organization, 16+1 undermines existing Euro-Atlantic alliances. It also reinforces tendencies toward crony capitalism in the participating CEE states, reversing the progress toward more open socioeconomic systems that these countries have achieved since 1989 under the EU’s normative guidance. Ultimately, CEE countries will have to choose between the EU regulatory framework, designed to secure a level playing field, and the “China model” of a politicized economy controlled by a party-state.

Application of the Perkal method for assessing competitiveness of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe

Research background: The changes that took place in the late twentieth century led to the transformation of the political system in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). As a result, there has been an increase in the competitiveness of some of the economies among the CEE states. Due to different priorities and goals, these countries are also characterized by different levels in socio-economic development.
 Purpose of the article: The aim of the article is to identify the determinants affecting the competitiveness among the selected CEE countries.
 Methods: Based on Eurostat data, a set of determinants affecting competitiveness was established. A number of determinants have been eliminated in relation to the variation coefficient. At the same time, a classification of the level of competitiveness among the CEE countries has been made by using the Perkal method. The analysis used 14 selected indicators, 10 of which are considered as stimulating, and 4 as deteriorating the competitiveness of national economies. The result led to obtaining a synthetic level indicator of potential of the CEE countries.
 Findings & Value added: Following the findings of the conducted analysis, the highest economic competitiveness exists in Estonia and in the Czech Republic, while the lowest was found in Romania and Bulgaria. The results of the evaluation obtained with the Perkal method concerning the competitiveness of the CEE countries that belong to the EU are largely consistent with those presented in different global competitiveness rankings. However, the method applied in this article seems much simpler and less time-consuming, allowing at the same time an optimal choice of analytical determinants. The selected linear Pearson correlation?s coefficient confirmed that there is a strong positive relationship between the designated values of the synthetic indicator of competitiveness and the GDP per capita. This confirms the validity of test method used.

Institutional Outcomes of Territorial Contestation: Lessons from Post-Communist Europe, 1989–2012

Since 1989, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced major institutional transformations. As part of that process, territorial contestations between states and ethnic minorities engendered three outcomes: negotiated territorial self-government (TSG) arrangements; the denial of such arrangements; and the emergence of de-facto states. Through a qualitative comparative analysis of twenty-four minority TSG claims in seventeen post-communist CEE states, we find that: (i) TSG arrangements emerged as externally facilitated instruments for managing or preventing violent conflict in predominantly low-capacity, only partially democratic states; (ii) peacefully pursued TSG claims were most likely to be denied in high-capacity consolidated democracies; and (iii) de-facto states emerged where patron-states intervened in violent conflicts in low-capacity states. These findings defy widely held expectations about the influence of Europeanization, coupled with democratic consolidation, on the accommodation of minority claims; and they offer new insights into the significance of external intervention for the institutional outcomes of ethnic minority TSG claims.

The Changing Patterns of China–CEE Trade

This article examines the contribution of competitiveness and trade product structure to China’s commercial links with ten states located in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). A constant market share analysis for the 2002–2011 period shows that, except for Romania, both CEE states and China increased their market shares in each other’s market mainly due to their improved competitiveness in intermediate goods. However, with the notable exception of Slovakia, other CEE economies and China tended to gain market shares in product groups characterised by relatively non-dynamic import demand growth. This mismatch between the Competitiveness and Structure Effects points to the room for an expansion of China–CEE trade.

Central and East European Diversification under New Gas Market Conditions

The Russo–Ukrainian gas crisis of January 2009 encouraged Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) to diversify away from Russian gas supplies and new gas market conditions have afforded some opportunities for doing so. This paper assesses these achievements, as well as factors preventing CEE countries from benefiting therefrom. The paper addresses four main areas of CEE diversification: (1) gas demand, (2) domestic gas production, (3) transit, as well as (4) gas supply and physical infrastructure for source diversification. There is great variation in the degree of dependence on gas, gas imports, Russian gas and transit countries, across the CEE states. Some progress has been made in diversifying, but the degree of progress and the patterns vary significantly from country to country. Due to long-term gas import commitments and the lack of available import capacity, CEE countries can take only limited advantage of changed gas market conditions. But some countries have genuinely benefited from ongoing developments. Transit-avoidance pipelines can also increase security of supply for CEE consumers by providing the opportunity to arbitrage across gas transit corridors. Despite many criticisms, the EU has taken steps that may help mitigate Russian influence.