Central American Region Research Articles

Contested Cornerstones of Nonviolent National Self-Perception in Costa Rica: A Historical Approach

Crime, violence, and insecurity are perceived as society’s biggest problems in contemporary Costa Rica. This degree of priority is especially remarkable because the country has always been considered the peaceful exception in the violent Central American region. In this paper I analyze four cornerstones of the nonviolent national self-perception in the 1940s and 1980s as the fundamental basis for the current talk of crime: the civil war, the abolition of the military, the proclamation of neutrality, and the peace plan for Central America and the subsequent granting of the Nobel Peace Prize. The result of the analysis is the determination that these historical cornerstones were not publicly discussed as expressions of the nonviolent identity for which they are today cited as evidence. Gewalt und Kriminalitat werden in der costaricanischen Offentlichkeit heute als die groste gesellschaftliche Bedrohung wahrgenommen. Diese Prioritatensetzung ist nicht zuletzt deshalb bemerkenswert, weil Costa Rica seit langem als die friedvolle Ausnahme in der gewalttatigen zentralamerikanischen Region gilt. Dieser Beitrag untersucht vier Saulen der gewaltlosen Selbstwahrnehmung in den 1940er und 1980er Jahren: den Burgerkrieg, die Abschaffung des Militars, die Neutralitatserklarung und den Friedensplan fur Zentralamerika, fur den Oscar Arias mit dem Friedensnobelpreis ausgezeichnet wurde. Der Beitrag zeigt, dass diese historischen Momente in den 1940er und 1980er Jahren offentlich nicht unter dem Gesichtspunkt von Gewaltlosigkeit debattiert und wahrgenommen wurden und dass sich die damaligen Debatten nicht mit ihrer heutigen Interpretation als Belege einer gewaltlosen nationalen Identitat decken.

Discrimination of Odors Associated With Conspecific and Heterospecific Frass by Sibling Species Dendroctonus frontalis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) and Dendroctonus mesoamericanus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae).

In the Central American region, the aggressive, sibling bark beetles Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) and Dendroctonus mesoamericanus Armendáriz-Toledano & Sullivan (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae) commonly colonize pines concurrently, and in nature they avoid heterospecific pairing, although it can be produced in the lab. We performed walking arrestment bioassays in the lab to examine the capacity of both sexes of both species to discriminate odors from frass expelled from gallery entrances of either solitary females or conspecific pairs of either species. Males of both species strongly preferred odors of frass from solitary, conspecific females over those of heterospecific females or pairs of either species. Female D. frontalis did not discriminate among these frass categories, whereas female D. mesoamericanus preferred frass of conspecific females. In gas chromatography-electroantennographic detection and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analyses, we determined that males of both species could sense a nearly identical spectrum of approximately 16 host- and beetle-produced compounds present in frass of females of one or both species. Only two of these compounds, endo-brevicomin and ipsdienol, which were present in frass of female D. mesoamericanus and pairs of either species but absent in frass of solitary D. frontalis females, qualitatively distinguished these categories. Several known attractants and synergists for either species declined in concentration postpairing. Our results complement earlier research and indicate how semiochemical composition and concentration in frass might mediate male discrimination of attack sites of conspecific, unpaired females. Furthermore, our data indicate that semiochemical responses for walking females differ from those of males and between species.

Evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Guatemala.

Different explanations exist on how HIV-1 subtype B spread in Central America, but the role of Guatemala, the Central American country with the highest number of people living with the virus, in this scenario is unknown. We investigated the evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamics of HIV-1 subtype B in Guatemala. A total of 1,047 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences, from newly diagnosed ART-naïve, HIV-infected Guatemalan subjects enrolled between 2011 and 2013 were combined with published subtype B sequences from other Central American countries (n = 2,101) and with reference sequences representative of the BPANDEMIC and BCAR lineages from the United States (n = 465), France (n = 344) and the Caribbean (n = 238). Estimates of evolutionary, demographic, and phylogeographic parameters were obtained from sequence data using maximum likelihood and Bayesian coalescent-based methods. The majority of Guatemalan sequences (98.9%) belonged to the BPANDEMIC clade, and 75.2% of these sequences branched within 10 monophyletic clades: four also included sequences from other Central American countries (BCAM-I to BCAM-IV) and six were mostly (>99%) composed by Guatemalan sequences (BGU clades). Most clades mainly comprised sequences from heterosexual individuals. Bayesian coalescent-based analyses suggested that BGU clades originated during the 1990s and 2000s, whereas BCAM clades originated between the late 1970s and mid 1980s. The major hub of dissemination of all BGU, and of BCAM-II, and BCAM-IV clades was traced to the Department of Guatemala, while the root location of BCAM-I and BCAM-III was traced to Honduras. Most Guatemalan clades experienced initial phases of exponential growth (0.23 and 3.6 year-1), followed by recent growth declines. Our observations suggest that the Guatemalan HIV-1 subtype B epidemic is driven by dissemination of multiple BPANDEMIC founder viral strains, some restricted to Guatemala and others widely disseminated in the Central American region, with Guatemala City identified as a major hub of viral dissemination. Our results also suggest the existence of different sub-epidemics within Guatemala for which different targeted prevention efforts might be needed.

Climate change impacts and adaptation among smallholder farmers in Central America

BackgroundSmallholder farmers are one of the most vulnerable groups to climate change, yet efforts to support farmer adaptation are hindered by the lack of information on how they are experiencing and responding to climate change. More information is needed on how different types of smallholder farmers vary in their perceptions and responses to climate change, and how to tailor adaptation programs to different smallholder farmer contexts. We surveyed 860 smallholder coffee and basic grain (maize/bean) farmers across six Central American landscapes to understand farmer perceptions of climate change and the impacts they are experiencing, how they are changing their agricultural systems in response to climate change, and their adaptation needs.ResultsAlmost all (95%) of the surveyed smallholder farmers have observed climate change, and most are already experiencing impacts of rising temperatures, unpredictable rainfall and extreme weather events on crop yields, pest and disease incidence, income generation and, in some cases, food security. For example, 87% of maize farmers and 66% of coffee farmers reported negative impacts of climate change on crop production, and 32% of all smallholder farmers reported food insecurity following extreme weather events. Of the farmers perceiving changes in climate, 46% indicated that they had changed their farming practices in response to climate change, with the most common adaptation measure being the planting of trees. There was significant heterogeneity among farmers in the severity of climate change impacts, their responses to these impacts, and their adaptation needs. This heterogeneity likely reflects the wide diversity of socioeconomic and biophysical contexts across smallholder farms and landscapes.ConclusionsOur study demonstrates that climate change is already having significant adverse impacts on smallholder coffee and basic grain farmers across the Central American region. There is an urgent need for governments, donors and practitioners to ramp up efforts to help smallholder farmers cope with existing climate impacts and build resiliency to future changes. Our results also highlight the importance of tailoring of climate adaptation policies and programs to the diverse socioeconomic conditions, biophysical contexts, and climatic stresses that smallholder farmers face.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the mixed layer heat budget in the Caribbean Sea

Abstract The long-term mean annual cycle and interannual variability of the mixed layer heat budget in the Caribbean Sea are quantified by using high resolution oceanic and atmospheric reanalysis products (the GLobal Ocean ReanalYsis and Simulations, GLORYS2V4, and ERA-Interim) for the period spanning from January 1993 to December 2015. In this region the mixed layer depth (MLD) is relatively shallow, oscillating spatially from 10 to 90 m, with maximum values observed during the dry season (December to March), and minimum values during the main rainy season (September to November). The highest MLD values are found in the northwestern part of the basin and the lowest in the Central and northern South American coastal region. The strength and location of greater MLD oscillations over the Caribbean Sea depend on the intensity of the zonal winds and the location of the Caribbean-Low Level Jet (CLLJ). At interannual timescales, reanalysis data shows that the MLD anomalies are associated with extreme phases of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO); however, low statistical correlation suggests that other factors, such as a Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), or a weak ENSO cycle with a 2-year periodicity, could influence this region, and induce changes in the depth of the mixed layer and in the heat budget within it. The seasonal ocean heat balance within the mixed layer ranges between −315 and 393 W m−2 in the Caribbean region (monthly means around ±60 W m−2 averaged over the entire domain). The net air-sea heat flux varies seasonally around ±60 W m−2. Analysis of this term shows that during the dry season (rainy season), when the MLD is deep (shallow) the region loses (gains) heat, with net short wave radiation being the main gain, and the latent heat the main loss at seasonal and interannual timescales. The advection term is an order of magnitude less (monthly means from −2 to 7.5 W m−2) but has the highest values during the dry season in the northwest Caribbean Sea, when the winds and surface currents are intense. This term tends to provide small interannual heat variability (up to ±2 W m−2). The entrainment is almost negligible in its contribution to the budget. At interannual timescales this flux reduces the stored heat by up to ±1 W m−2. It is noted that although the MLD is not so clearly related with ENSO, the heat stored in this layer is significantly modulated by El Nino/La Nina remote forcing, especially during the period spanning from 1992 to 2001 when intense ENSO events occurred and affected the air-sea fluxes, and the advection. The CLLJ influences both the MLD and the heat budget in the Caribbean Sea. This jet is being modulated by ENSO and other long-term oscillations.

Los animales como seres vivos dotados de sensibilidad ante el interés común en la ganadería nicaragüense y los acuerdos de la OIE y el OIRSA

This essay aims to raise awareness of the importance of animal sentience in the Central American Region, before the agreements of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the International Regional Organization for Animal Health (OIRSA), using as reference the Political Constitution and Obligatory Technical Standards of Nicaragua, focusing on the induction of heat stress as an indicator of symptoms in the livestock, as an aggravating factor for the climate change in the Nicaraguan cattle farming sector.

Entender el extractivismo en regiones fronterizas. Monocultivos y despojo en las fronteras de Costa Rica

Las regiones fronterizas centroamericanas están marcadas por la presencia de importantes actividades extractivas como la minería, el petróleo y los monocultivos de piña, banano, cítricos y palma africana. El presente artículo busca analizar la relación que existe entre las regiones fronterizas y la presencia de actividades extractivas mediante dos estudios de caso: el cantón de Talamanca localizado en la cuenca fronteriza del río Sixaola compartida entre Costa Rica y Panamá, y el caso de la Zona Norte de Costa Rica que colinda con Nicaragua. Se analizarán los factores históricos y políticos que facilitaron la instalación de empresas extractivas, se identificarán los principales actores que intervienen en los procesos de extracción de piña y banano. Se presentará la expansión de estos monocultivos como una forma de despojo y de acumulación de la tierra, lo que genera importantes costos económicos, daños ambientales y sociales en las regiones de estudio.

El Ni\xf1o and the K\xf6ppen\u2013Geiger Classification: A Prototype Concept and Methodology for Mapping Impacts in Central America and the Circum-Caribbean

The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Niño on annual climates and seasonality. Our study is based on the Köppen–Geiger climate classification scheme for a set of selected countries affected by strong El Niños in Latin America. By identifying and visualizing the annual and seasonal changes in regional, national, or subnational climate regimes that generally accompany an El Niño event, this research proposes an efficient way to detect and describe climate shifts and variability across time and space. Such knowledge provides a support tool for risk analysis and can potentially enhance government efforts of climate risk management, including disaster risk reduction activities that prevent, mitigate, and improve coping responses to El Niño-related hydrometeorological threats. Details of the conceptual approach and methodology to classifying and mapping El Niño’s impacts are described and explained using the Central American and circum-Caribbean region as a case study. The potential applications for disaster risk reduction as well as its limitations and future work are also discussed.

Prevalence of Self-Reported Gluten-Related Disorders and Adherence to a Gluten-Free Diet in Salvadoran Adult Population.

Gluten-related disorders are not considered of relevance at public health level in Central America. The prevalence of gluten-related disorders, and adherence to a gluten-free diet, remain unknown in the Central American region. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of the Central American population from San Salvador, El Salvador, to estimate the prevalence rates of self-reported gluten-related disorders and adherence to a gluten-free diet. 1326 individuals were surveyed. Self-reported prevalence rates were (95% Confidence Interval): gluten sensitivity 3.1% (2.3–4.2); physician-diagnosed celiac disease 0.15% (0.04–0.5); wheat allergy 0.75% (0.4–1.3); non-celiac gluten sensitivity 0.98% (0.5–1.6). The prevalence rate of adherence to a gluten-free diet was 7.0% (5.7–8.5). Seven self-reported physician diagnosed gluten-sensitive cases informed the co-existence of non-celiac gluten sensitivity with celiac disease and/or wheat allergy. Among the non-self-reported gluten sensitivity individuals following a gluten-free diet, 50% reported that they were seeing a health professional for gluten-free dietary advice. Gluten sensitivity is commonly reported in Salvadoran population, but some health professionals acknowledge the coexistence of wheat allergy, celiac disease, and non-celiac gluten sensitivity. Among studies at population level, the prevalence of adherence to a gluten-free diet in Salvadoran population is the highest reported until now. However, just a few of the gluten-free diet followers were doing it for health-related benefits; the others reported weight control and the perception that the diet is healthier as the main motivation for adopting such a diet.

Improving Immunohistochemistry Capability for Pediatric Cancer Care in the Central American and Caribbean Region: A Report From the AHOPCA Pathology Working Group.

Accessibility to immunohistochemistry (IHC) is invaluable to proper diagnosis and treatment of pediatric patients with malignant neoplasms. Whereas IHC is widely available in anatomic pathology laboratories in high-income countries, access to it in anatomic pathology laboratories of low- and middle-income countries remains a struggle, with many limitations. To advance the quality of the pathology service offered to children with cancer in areas with limited resources, a 5-day pathology training workshop was offered to pathologists and histotechnologists from various countries of the Central American and Caribbean region. An initial assessment of the workshop participants’ current laboratory capacities was performed, and a regional training center was selected. Didactic and hands-on activities were offered, and review and evaluation of the IHC slides produced during the training course were compared with original slides from the participants’ sites. This model of intensive 5-day training appears to be effective and can potentially be used in other budget-constrained regions. Moreover, it can serve as a continuing education activity for pathologists and histotechnologists, and as part of validations and quality improvement projects to build capacity and develop IHC assay proficiency in low- and middle-income countries.

Hybrid governance for drought risk management: The case of the 2014/2015 El Niño in Costa Rica

In the athropocene era, droughts are complex disaster risks that are driven by the nature-society interactions requiring, especially at the local scales, of adaptive poli-centric approaches. In such contexts, actors from across scales and knowledge domains need interchanging information and coordinating actions through existing institutional spaces to i) navigate uncertainties regarding complex drought evolution and impacts pathways and ii) address pre-existing social tensions over water scarcity. Focussing on the dry tropics of Costa Rica and on the 2014/2015 El Nino drought that affected all Central American region, this article characterizes existing institutional spaces used by stakeholders to address water scarcity in three case studies while characterizing the evolution of this drought's governance from the analysis of official and media documents. We found that in some of the case studies actors from sectors previously involved in water conflicts are not represented in inter-organizational institutional spaces to address water scarcity and have not participated in the drought response process. We also found, in line with the drought governance analysis from around the World, that drought governance activities in the region should strengthen the participation of representatives of organizations that can play a knowledge-brokering role such as technical agencies, local universities or extensionists. Although these boundary players can contribute to increase shared understanding among different actors in water conflict-prone cases on drivers, responsibilities and uncertainties, they are currently under-represented in local institutional spaces.

El pensamiento centroamericano del siglo XIX: política y educación (Central American Thought in the 19th Century: Politics and Education)

El siglo XIX marcó cambios en el accionar político y social de la región centroamericana. Mediante el ensayo, el pensamiento intelectual de los principales personajes del Istmo se manifestó de manera prolífica. Sus reflexiones se orientaban a la creación de propuestas sobre nuevos modos de vida de las antiguas colonias, a la vez que surgieron los proyectos de identidad nacional en los cinco países de la región, ahora independientes. Este artículo muestra un somero panorama de las principales posturas adoptadas en la educación y la religión como ejes transversales de la praxis política y cultural de estos intelectuales. Abstract The nineteenth century marked the political and social action of the Central American region. Through the essay, the intellectual thought of the outstanding figures of this isthmus became prolific. Their reflections were oriented towards the creation of proposals on new ways of life in the old colonies. At the same time projects for the national identity of the independent countries of the region also appeared. This article provides a brief overview of the main positions in education and religion cutting across the political and cultural praxis of these intellectuals.

Can climate variability information constrain a hydrological model for an ungauged Costa Rican catchment?

AbstractLong‐term hydrological data are key to understanding catchment behaviour and for decision making within water management and planning. Given the lack of observed data in many regions worldwide, such as Central America, hydrological models are an alternative for reproducing historical streamflow series. Additional types of information—to locally observed discharge—can be used to constrain model parameter uncertainty for ungauged catchments. Given the strong influence that climatic large‐scale processes exert on streamflow variability in the Central American region, we explored the use of climate variability knowledge as process constraints to constrain the simulated discharge uncertainty for a Costa Rican catchment, assumed to be ungauged. To reduce model uncertainty, we first rejected parameter relationships that disagreed with our understanding of the system. Then, based on this reduced parameter space, we applied the climate‐based process constraints at long‐term, inter‐annual, and intra‐annual timescales. In the first step, we reduced the initial number of parameters by 52%, and then, we further reduced the number of parameters by 3% with the climate constraints. Finally, we compared the climate‐based constraints with a constraint based on global maps of low‐flow statistics. This latter constraint proved to be more restrictive than those based on climate variability (further reducing the number of parameters by 66% compared with 3%). Even so, the climate‐based constraints rejected inconsistent model simulations that were not rejected by the low‐flow statistics constraint. When taken all together, the constraints produced constrained simulation uncertainty bands, and the median simulated discharge followed the observed time series to a similar level as an optimized model. All the constraints were found useful in constraining model uncertainty for an—assumed to be—ungauged basin. This shows that our method is promising for modelling long‐term flow data for ungauged catchments on the Pacific side of Central America and that similar methods can be developed for ungauged basins in other regions where climate variability exerts a strong control on streamflow variability.

Contribution of international ecotourism to comprehensive economic development and convergence in the Central American and Caribbean region

ABSTRACTDrawing on the positive experience from Costa Rica, the study examines whether international ecotourism makes a significant contribution to comprehensive economic development for the Central American and Caribbean region and contributes to comprehensive economic convergence. Following a standard empirical growth model, a dynamic panel regression model is estimated using time-series data from 1995 until 2012 for a cross section of seven countries. The interaction of international tourism and various established sustainability indicators is employed allowing ecotourism to be consistently quantified across countries, while numerous country-specific structural characteristics are controlled for. The estimation results show that international ecotourism has a statistically significant positive effect on both traditional economic development (real GDP per capita) and comprehensive economic development (adjusted net savings; ANS per capita), which is a measure of a society’s potential future well-being, thus providing evidence in support of the tourism-led growth hypothesis and pointing towards an important role for ecotourism in driving comprehensive economic convergence.

Molecular markers for genetic diversity studies in Jatropha (<i>Jatropha curcas</i> L.)

The molecular markers namely random amplified polymorphic DNA, amplified fragment length polymorphism, sequence-characterized amplified region, inter simple sequence repeats, simple sequence repeats and single-nucleotide polymorphism, etc. have been successfully used for genetic diversity studies in J. curcas . The assessment of genetic variations among Jatropha germplasms using molecular markers show the presence of high genetic diversity for the Central and South American regions and insignificant genetic variation from Asia and Africa. The use of molecular markers for the assessment of phylogenetic relationships among different Jatropha species has been restricted only to the well adapted and acclimatized species in India. The significant genetic variability in the genus Jatropha for vegetative and floral traits for seed oil content, productivity, toxicity (phorbol esters, curcin), fatty acid profiles, etc. has been studied in the past decade using molecular markers. Genetic enhancement of Jatropha through conventional breeding and interspecific gene transfer can be attempted by exploiting the diverse genetic resource form J. curcas and their wild species. This review focuses on the importance and use of molecular markers towards studying diversity analysis in J. curcas growing at different areas.

La movilidad de estudiantes en América Central: ¿en busca del Hegemonic Knowledge?

La dinámica de la movilidad estudiantil centroamericana está caracterizada por la unidireccionalidad hacia los países occidentales, que constituyen centros de saber hegemónico, especialmente Estados Unidos. No obstante, se aprecia un aumento de la movilidad a Cuba, creándose un espacio alternativo y de contrapeso a dicha tendencia. En cambio, la movilidad hacia la región centroamericana es doméstica y periférica, con mayores aportes intrarregionales que foráneos, situándose al margen de los centros universitarios de producción científica.

Local and Indigenous Knowledge Regarding the Land Use and Use of Other Natural Resources in the Aspiring Rio Coco Geopark

There is a limited number of studies describing the situation and importance of current or potential usage of the local and indigenous traditional environmental knowledge in the region of Northern Nicaragua. To fill this gap, the author supported by a local team conducted the participative research in this rather neglected Central American region, concretely in the northern area of the aspiring Rio Coco Geopark. The purpose of this research was to identify the local and indigenous knowledge regarding the present and traditional use of natural resources including land use and to analyse the contribution and potential of the usage of this knowledge for the local development sustainability. The practical long-term impact of this research is expected mainly in the form of enhancement of the local geotourism sustainability. The research process itself was of the same importance as its results, especially the involvement of the local and indigenous people. In this participative research, young local and indigenous people obtained training and served as co-investigators who later interviewed representatives of the local households. The other field methods included life history of elders, discussions in the focal groups involving common people from local communities as well as the mapping and photo-documentation of the identified local and indigenous traditional environmental knowledge. The participative character of the research process not only facilitated the data collection and validation but also supported the revival of the community memory and revitalization of its cultural and natural identity. The research findings point out that the more distant and more dispersed are the local settlements the better conserved local and indigenous knowledge regarding the traditional land use and other use of natural resources is. Among the best-conserved local and indigenous traditional environmental knowledge in the northern area of the aspiring Rio Coco Geopark was the usage of the earth material and plants. The local indigenous people are not expressing and transmitting the spiritual dimension of their traditional environmental knowledge (sacred times or sites, rites, rituals or taboos regarding the traditional land use and other use of natural resources) anymore because they were experiencing a continuous repression realized by the dominant (colonial) society in the past. They are not accustomed to appreciating the aesthetic values of the landscape as do visitors, but they are open to share their authentic life with them. The majority of the identified traditional land use and the use of the other natural resources as well as related traditional environmental knowledge in the researched northern region of the aspiring Rio Coco Geopark seems to be more sustainable than the present land use practices and the use of natural resources generally for agriculture, medicine, constructions etc. The local communities should dedicate much more attention and efforts to conserve, transmit and use this local and indigenous traditional environmental knowledge to enhance the sustainability of their development as well as geotourism emerging in this part of the aspiring geopark.

Role of destination competitiveness and national corruption in hotel performance: A study of developing economies of Central America

ABSTRACTThe objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between destination competitiveness (DC), national corruption and hotel performance (HP). A panel data analysis was applied to the Central American region. The results reveal that corruption has an impact on DC and HP. Such findings are important for the region as many of the countries are battling high levels of corruption while developing tourism industry. In addition, DC was found to have a unidirectional impact on HP. These findings provide a number of theoretical and managerial implications, reinforcing the role of a “shadow” economy and the importance of tourism.

Improved seasonal prediction skill of rainfall for the Primera season in Central America

ABSTRACTThis study explores the predictive skill of seasonal rainfall characteristics for the first rainy (and planting) season, May–June, in Central America. Statistical predictive models were built using a Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique based on canonical correlation analysis, in which variables that forecast with the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) were used as candidate predictors for the observed total precipitation, frequency of rainy days and mean number of extremely dry and wet events in the season. CFSv2 initializations from February to April were explored. The CFSv2 variables used in the study consist of rainfall, as in a typical MOS technique, and a combination of low‐level winds and convective available potential energy (CAPE), a blend that has been previously shown to be a good predictor for convective activity. The highest predictive skill was found for the seasonal frequency of rainy days, followed by the mean frequency of dry events. In terms of candidate predictors, the zonal transport of CAPE (uCAPE) at 925 hPa offers higher skill across Central America than rainfall, which is attributed in part to the high model uncertainties associated with precipitation in the region. As expected, dynamical model predictors initialized in February provide lower skill than those initialized later. Nonetheless, the skill is comparable for March and April initializations. These results suggest that the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Central America, and the Central American Regional Climate Outlook Forum, can produce earlier more skilful forecasts for May–June rainfall characteristics than previously stated.

Benthic ecology of tropical coastal lagoons: Environmental changes over the last decades in the Términos Lagoon, Mexico

The Términos Lagoon is a 2000-km2 wide coastal lagoon linked to the largest river catchment in Mesoamerica. Economic development, together with its ecological importance, led the Mexican government to pronounce the Términos Lagoon and its surrounding wetlands as a Federal protected area for flora and fauna in 1994. It is characterized by small temperature fluctuations, but with two distinct seasons (wet and dry) that control the biological, geochemical, and physical processes and components. This paper presents a review of the available information about the Términos Lagoon. The review shows that the diversity of benthic communities is structured by the balance between marine and riverine inputs and that this structuration strongly influences the benthic metabolism and its coupling with the biogeochemistry of the water column. The paper also presents many specific drivers and recommendations for a long-term environmental survey strategy in the context of the expected Global Change in the Central American region.