Centennial Variability Research Articles

Testing climate–proxy stationarity throughout the Holocene: an example from the varved sediments of Lake Meerfelder Maar (Germany)

Lake Meerfelder Maar (Germany) provides a varved record from the Last Glacial/Interglacial transition back to ca 1500 years BP. This study shows results for the Holocene sequence from new cores collected in 2009 based on varve counting, microfacies and micro-XRF analyses. The main goal of combining those analyses is to provide a new approach for interpreting long-term palaeolimnological proxy data and testing the climate–proxy stationarity throughout the current interglacial period. Varve counting provides a new independent Holocene chronology (MFM2012) with an estimated counting error of 1–0.5% and supported by 14C dating. Varve structure and thickness and geochemical composition of the varves give information about the main environmental processes that affect the lake and its catchment as well as the possible climate variability behind. Varves are couplets of i) a spring/summer laminae composed of monospecific diatom blooms and ii) an autumn/winter sub-layer made of minerogenic material and reworked sediments. Thickness of the varves and sub-layers reflect lake variability and allow seasons to be distinguished as well as seasonal proxies. Changes in the winter minerogenic influx into the lake are reflected by Ti intensities and the Si/Ti ratio as an indicator for diatom concentration, which can be used as a proxy for water circulation during the early spring. Long-term variability of geochemical composition shows a reduction of the detrital material input (Ti) at 5000 varve yrs BP and a visible sensitivity to water mixing (Si/Ti) during the Late Holocene. Variations of Ti intensities during the early and mid-Holocene do not show a clear relationship with climate. In contrast, higher values of the Si/Ti ratio together with thicker varves have been interpreted as wind-stress phases, which coincide with centennial variability of European cold/wet episodes during the Late Holocene. Our findings show that a long-term change in the lake and/or variability of the climate system can influence proxy sensitivity of a lacustrine record.

The Holocene boreal forest dynamics in the western range limit of the Siberian Larch (Larix sibirica): evidence from stomata, pollen and charcoal records from small hollows

The development of research into the history of tree growth and inferred summer temperature changes in Yamalia spanning the last 2000 years is reviewed. One focus is the evolving production of tree-ring width (TRW) and tree-ring maximum-latewood density (MXD) larch (Larix sibirica) chronologies, incorporating different applications of Regional Curve Standardisation (RCS). Another focus is the comparison of independent data representing past tree growth in adjacent Yamalia areas: Yamal and Polar Urals, and the examination of the evidence for common growth behaviour at different timescales. The sample data we use are far more numerous and cover a longer time-span at Yamal compared to the Polar Urals, but Yamal has only TRW, while there are both TRW and MXD for the Polar Urals. We use more data (sub-fossil and from living trees) than in previous dendroclimatic studies in this region. We develop a new TRW chronology for Yamal, more than 2000 years long and running up to 2005. For the Polar Urals we develop new TRW and MXD chronologies that show good agreement at short (<15 years) and medium (15–100 years) timescales demonstrating the validity of attempts to reconcile the evidence of longer-timescale information that they provide. We use a “conservative” application of the RCS approach (two-curve signal-free RCS), guarding against the possibility of “modern sample bias”: a possible inflation of recent chronology values arising out of inadvertent selection of mostly relatively fast-growing trees in recent centuries. We also transform tree indices to have a normal distribution to remove the positive chronology skew often apparent in RCS TRW chronologies. This also reduces the apparent magnitude of 20th century tree-growth levels.There is generally good agreement between all chronologies as regards the major features of the decadal to centennial variability. Low tree-growth periods for which the inferred summer temperatures are approximately 2.5 °C below the 1961–90 reference are apparent in the 15-year smoothed reconstructions, centred around 1005, 1300, 1455, 1530, particularly the 1810s where the inferred cooling reaches −4 °C or even −6 °C for individual years, and the 1880s. These are superimposed on generally cool pre-20th century conditions: the long-term means of the pre-1900 reconstructed temperature anomalies range from −0.6 to −0.9 °C in our alternative reconstructions. There are numerous periods of one or two decades with relatively high growth (and inferred summer temperatures close to the 1961–1990 level) but at longer timescales only the 40-year period centred at 250 CE appears comparable with 20th century warmth. Although the central temperature estimate for this period is below that for the recent period, when we take into account the uncertainties we cannot be highly confident that recent warmth has exceeded the temperature of this earlier warm period. While there are clear warm decades either side of 1000 CE, neither TRW nor MXD data support the conclusion that temperatures were exceptionally high during medieval times. One previous version of the Polar Urals TRW chronology is shown here to be in error due to an injudicious application of RCS to non-homogeneous sample data, partly derived from root-collar samples that produce spuriously high chronology values in the 11th and 15th centuries. This biased chronology has been used in a number of recent studies aimed at reconstructing wider scale temperature histories. All of the chronologies we have produced here clearly show a generally high level of growth throughout their most recent 80 years. Allowing for chronology and reconstruction uncertainty, the mean of the last 100 years of the reconstruction is likely warmer than any century in the last 2000 years in this region.

Positive precipitation–evaporation budget from AD 460 to 1090 in the Saloum Delta (Senegal) indicated by mollusk oxygen isotopes

There is a critical need to document the long-term variability of the West African Monsoon (WAM) in the Sahel region. We present here a multidecadal proxy record of the past hydrology from AD 460 to 1090 in the Saloum Delta, Senegal. The Saloum Delta is a hypersaline estuary where the salinity and the water isotopic composition are highly sensitive to rainfall variations. The past hydrology was studied using the oxygen isotopic ratio of Anadara senilis fossil shells, since mollusk shell isotopic composition (δ18O) in this environment is primarily determined by the precipitation–evaporation budget. Successive samples of shells were taken along the stratigraphy of the massive Dioron Boumak fossil shell middens for new insights into the past WAM multi-decadal to centennial variability. The averaged δ18O value of fossil shells was more negative by 1.4‰ compared to modern shells' isotopic signature. This result indicates substantially fresher mean conditions in the Saloum Delta, that was likely not hypersaline as it is today. The precipitation–evaporation budget was thus more positive in response to a more intense and/or longer monsoon season during the studied period. Our record suggests that strong multidecadal droughts as observed in the Sahel in the late 20th century did likely not occur in Senegal during this ~600-yr time period.

Winter atmospheric circulation signature for the timing of the spring bloom of diatoms in the North Sea

Analysing long-term diatom data from the German Bight and observational climate data for the period 1962–2005, we found a close connection of the inter-annual variation of the timing of the spring bloom with the boreal winter atmospheric circulation. We examined the fact that high diatom counts of the spring bloom tended to occur later when the atmospheric circulation was characterized by winter blocking over Scandinavia. The associated pattern in the sea level pressure showed a pressure dipole with two centres located over the Azores and Norway and was tilted compared to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The bloom was earlier when the cyclonic circulation over Scandinavia allowed an increased inflow of Atlantic water into the North Sea which is associated with clearer, more marine water, and warmer conditions. The bloom was later when a more continental atmospheric flow from the east was detected. At Helgoland Roads, it seems that under turbid water conditions (= low light) zooplankton grazing can affect the timing of the phytoplankton bloom negatively. Warmer water temperatures will facilitate this. Under clear water conditions, light will be the main governing factor with regard to the timing of the spring bloom. These different water conditions are shown here to be mainly related to large-scale weather patterns. We found that the mean diatom bloom could be predicted from the sea level pressure one to three months in advance. Using historical pressure data, we derived a proxy for the timing of the spring bloom over the last centuries, showing an increased number of late (proxy-) blooms during the eighteenth century when the climate was considerably colder than today. We argue that these variations are important for the interpretation of inter-annual to centennial variations of biological processes. This is of particular interest when considering future scenarios, as well to considerations on past and future effects on the primary production and food webs.

A Pacific Centennial Oscillation Predicted by Coupled GCMs*

Abstract Internal climate variability at the centennial time scale is investigated using long control integrations from three state-of-the-art global coupled general circulation models. In the absence of external forcing, all three models produce centennial variability in the mean zonal sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) gradients in the equatorial Pacific with counterparts in the extratropics. The centennial pattern in the tropical Pacific is dissimilar to that of the interannual El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), in that the most prominent expression in temperature is found beneath the surface of the western Pacific warm pool. Some global repercussions nevertheless are analogous, such as a hemispherically symmetric atmospheric wave pattern of alternating highs and lows. Centennial variability in western equatorial Pacific SST is a result of the strong asymmetry of interannual ocean heat content anomalies, while the eastern equatorial Pacific exhibits a lagged, Bjerknes-like response to temperature and convection in the west. The extratropical counterpart is shown to be a flux-driven response to the hemispherically symmetric circulation anomalies emanating from the tropical Pacific. Significant centennial-length trends in the zonal SST and SLP gradients rivaling those estimated from observations and model simulations forced with increasing CO2 appear to be inherent features of the internal climate dynamics simulated by all three models. Unforced variability and trends on the centennial time scale therefore need to be addressed in estimated uncertainties, beyond more traditional signal-to-noise estimates that do not account for natural variability on the centennial time scale.

Seasonal temperature variability during the past 1600 years recorded in historical documents and varved lake sediment profiles from northeastern China

Seasonal temperature variability over longer timescales could offer new insights into understanding different forcing factors and response processes in the climate system. Here we report an alkenone-based temperature reconstruction for growing season over the past 1600 years from the varved sediment in Lake Sihailongwan, northeastern China. The most notable cold spells occurred during the periods ad 480–860, ad 1260–1300, ad 1510–1570 and ad 1800–1900 with a temperature decrease of about 1°C compared with the 20th century. Based on the historical evidence such as ‘snow or frost in the summertime’ and ‘no ice during the wintertime’, we compile extreme cold summer events and warm winter events over the past 1600 years. The ‘Little Ice Age’ time period experienced more extreme cold summer/warm winter events, while the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ had milder winters. Comparatively, the natural proxy data show a general similar pattern with historical documents at decadal time scales, except for between ad 1620 and 1720. Our results show multidecadal to centennial variations in seasonal temperature, possibly caused by interactions of external natural forcing and atmosphere–ocean circulations.

A 1416-year reconstruction of annual, multidecadal, and centennial variability in area burned for ponderosa pine forests of the southern Colorado Plateau region, Southwest USA

Fire history reconstructions from fire scars in tree rings have been valuable for assessing fire regime changes and their climatic controls. It has been asserted, however, that these two- to four-century long records from the western USA are unrepresentative of longer periods of the Holocene and are of limited use for understanding current or future fire regimes. The Medieval Climate Anomaly (800–1300 ce) is often suggested as a better analog for future Southwestern US climates but is beyond the chronological range of most fire-scar studies in this region. To evaluate fire regime changes over the past millennium, we build on centennial-length fire–climate studies to generate a 1416 year long reconstruction of fire activity in ponderosa pine forests of the Southern Colorado Plateau region of Arizona and New Mexico. We used a split-period calibration and verification protocol to test the reliability of a multiple regression model using annual and antecedent precipitation (reconstructed from tree-ring width chronologies) to predict the percentage of fire-scar localities (i.e. sites, N=45) that recorded extensive fires within those sites (&gt;25% of recorder trees scarred) each year between 1700 and 1899 ce. The model explains approximately 50% of the variation in annual fire activity. Applying the model to the entire precipitation reconstruction provides a proxy for annual area burned since 572 ce. There are no statistically significant differences between the period available for fire-scar study (1600 ce–present) and the Medieval Climate Anomaly (800–1300 ce) in terms of predicted annual area burned or the frequencies of regional fire years. Multidecadal and centennial variation in the frequencies of regional fire years, however, does indicate reduced surface fire frequencies from approximately 700–800 ce and 1360–1455ce. We hypothesize that these were periods when some forests were vulnerable to altered canopy structure, accumulated fuels, and increased fire severity.

Assessing the reliability of Holocene relative palaeointensity estimates: a case study from Swedish varved lake sediments

We present palaeomagnetic secular variation and relative palaeointensity estimates from multiple sediment cores recovered from a varved lake sediment sequence in Kalksjon, a lake in central west Sweden. Alternating field demagnetization of discrete samples reveals natural remanent magnetizations dominated by a stable, single component. Magnetic grain size indicators-which include Day plots and first-order reversal curves-indicate that the main carrier of the natural remanence is single-domain magnetite throughout the varved sequence, which extends to similar to 9200 cal. yr BP. The millennial-scale features of the Kalksjon relative palaeointensity, inclination and declination data are well matched against the Fennoscandian master curves FENNORPIS and FENNOSTACK, and a global dipole moment reconstruction curve. There is evidence, however, of environmental bias in the relative palaeointensity estimates during specific time intervals. We find that bias is particularly pronounced during the early Holocene, specifically between similar to 9000 and 7800 cal. yr BP. During this period the bias is apparent as a series of relative palaeointensity cycles, with a wavelength of similar to 300 years. Some bias is also evident between 7800 and 3200 cal. yr BP. By comparing Kalksjon's smoothed relative palaeointensity data with the reconstructed geomagnetic field intensity from C-14 on timescales longer than 500 years-thereby removing the effect of relatively high frequency environmental bias in the early Holocene-we suggest that a distinct peak in intensity at centred on similar to 8700 cal. yr BP is a true feature of the geomagnetic field. A minimum at similar to 7400 cal. yr BP and a maximum at similar to 2500 cal. yr BP are also robust features. Our main conclusion is that sedimentary-based relative palaeointensity reconstructions must be carefully assessed if short-term, centennial variations are to be examined. (Less)

A multimodel comparison of centennial Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability

A mechanism contributing to centennial variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is tested with multi-millennial control simulations of several coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). These are a substantially extended integration of the 3rd Hadley Centre Coupled Climate Model (HadCM3), the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), and the Max Plank Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Significant AMOC variability on time scales of around 100 years is simulated in these models. The centennial mechanism links changes in the strength of the AMOC with oceanic salinities and surface temperatures, and atmospheric phenomena such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 2 of the 3 models reproduce all aspects of the mechanism, with the third (MPI-ESM) reproducing most of them. A comparison with a high resolution paleo-proxy for Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) north of Iceland over the last 4,000 years, also linked to the ITCZ, suggests that elements of this mechanism may also be detectable in the real world.

Response of Earth's surface temperature to radiative forcing over A.D. 1–2009

[1] An energy balance model (EBM) of the annual global mean surface temperature is described and calibrated to the sensitivity and temporal dynamics of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies modelE global climate model (GCM). The effective radiative forcings of 10 agents are estimated over the past 2009 years and used as inputs to the model. Temperatures are relatively stable from around A.D. 300 until a “Medieval Climate Anomaly” starting around A.D. 1050. This is ended by a massive volcanic eruption in A.D. 1258, which initiates a multicentury era of low and relatively variable global mean temperatures, including a “Little Ice Age” A.D. 1588–1720. This era only ends at the beginning of the 20th century. The model estimate of forced centennial variability is smaller than the observed variability in reconstructions over the past two millennia. Also, the default parameterization results in less warming than observed over A.D. 1910–1944. Prediction uncertainty in the pre-industrial era is dominated by solar forcing, with the climate feedback factor and volcanic aerosols also playing important roles. In contrast, prediction uncertainty post–A.D. 1750 is much higher and dominated by uncertainties in direct and indirect aerosol and land use forcings. Improving estimates of these will greatly increase our ability to attribute observed temperature variability to contemporary forcings.

Multidecadal and centennial ENSO variability

Multidecadal and centennial ENSO variability

The Mountain Observatory Bjelašnica - History, analysis, homogenization and interpretation of a more than 100 years long temperature data set

Bosnia and Herzegovina is situated at the junction of three main climatic zones, namely, the Mediterranean, the Mountain and the Moderate Continental one. The Mountain Observatory Bjelasnica is located at the boundary between these climatic zones. The special location at the sharp transition between different climate regimes creates surnormally variably climate conditions. This - along with the general sparseness of high elevation climate information ― makes a new centennial high elevation data set starting in 1895 particularly interesting for climate and climate change research. Our paper describes the historical background of the observatory - one of the fundamentals of appropriate homogenizing climate time series. The new temperature series is then implemented into the existing data collection HISTALP. Further our paper provides a first comparative analysis of the centennial trend, the decadal variations and the high-frequent variability of the first homogenized centennial summit series at the Balkan Peninsula. Homogenization tests detected four breaks in the 1895-2007 Bjelasnica summit series. The monthly adjustments ranged from -0.9 to +0.9°C. The average length of a homogeneous subinterval was 23 years. Although remote from the other high elevation summit sites of the Alps, the Bjelasnica-series shows astonishingly similar centennial and decadal scale trends and variations. The linear centennial trend 1895-2007 is +0.11°C/10a. Decadal variations are more accentuated in summer than in winter. The former are dominated by a two-step warming from cool 1910s summers to a first maximum near 1950 followed by a significant cooling until 1980 and then the well known recent warming which was strongest from 1980 to 2000. In the cold season decadal scale deviations from the centennial trends are less significant than in the summer half year season. There are only two main divergent subperiods - a cold one at the beginning of the series near 1900 and the main maximum in the 1990s. The Bjelasnica summit series is freely available now in the web on www.zamg.ac.at/histalp.

Coral windows onto seasonal climate variability in the northern Caribbean since 1479

Mean surface ocean conditions in the Caribbean were up to ∼2°C cooler than today at times during the Little Ice Age. The seasonal context for such mean state changes is important for determining the mechanisms involved. We reconstructed surface ocean conditions in southwest Puerto Rico at approximately monthly resolution over eight 4–12 year periods during the last ∼520 years to test if the seasonal cycles of temperature or salinity varied with mean state. We carried out paired analyses of Sr/Ca and δ18O for two coral cores. The δ18O data contained clear annual cycles and were significantly correlated to temperature during the 20th century calibration periods (1993–2004 and 1902–1912, r = 0.73). The Sr/Ca data contained high‐frequency noise that obscured the seasonal cycles, although the centennial variability matched that of the coral δ18O, indicating a common forcing that is likely temperature. The seasonal coral δ18O amplitude averaged 0.60 ± 0.17‰, with none of the periods significantly different from the most recent. The simplest explanation is that the amplitudes of seasonal seawater δ18O and temperature variations were not different from today. Previous work in the southern Caribbean indicates that the Intertropical Convergence Zone was shifted southward or weaker during the Little Ice Age, and we speculate about how this could occur with no apparent affect on seasonality in the northern Caribbean.

Temperature variability in China in an ensemble simulation for the last 1,200 years

Regional temperature anomalies in China during 800–2005 ad in an ensemble simulation with the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model ECHAM5/MPIOM subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings are compared to reconstructions. In a mutual assessment of three reconstructed data sets and two ensemble simulations with different solar forcings, a reconstructed data set and a simulated ensemble for weak solar variability are selected for further comparison. Temperature variability in the selected simulated and reconstructed data shows a continuous power spectrum with weak long-term memory. The simulation reveals weak long-term anomaly periods known as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the Modern Warming (MW) in the three considered regions: Northeast, Southeast, and West China. The ensemble spread yields an uncertainty of ±0.5°C in all regions. The simulated temperature varies nearly synchronously in all three regions, whereas reconstructed data hint to increased decadal variability in the West and centennial variability in the Northeast. Cold periods are found in 1200–1300 and in 1600–1900 ad in all regions. The coldest anomalies which are caused by volcanic eruptions in the beginnings of the thirteenth and the nineteenth centuries are only partly consistent with reconstructed data. After 1800, the annual cycle reduces in the Northeast and on the Tibetan plateau, whereas the eastern Pacific shows an enhanced summer–winter contrast.

Climate and Antarctic Intermediate Water coupling during the late Holocene

Little is known about the scale of natural variability of the Southern Hemisphere upper ocean on decadal to centennial time scales, despite its potential importance for influencing regions as distant as the tropical Pacific (El Nino–Southern Oscillation; ENSO) or even the North Atlantic overturning circulation. Here we present the first subdecadally sampled reconstruction of variability in the southeast Pacific upper-intermediate ocean from ca. A.D. 0–1300 using foraminiferal oxygen and carbon isotope records. Our results reveal large variability in surface ocean physical properties on both decadal and centennial time scales in the southeast Pacific; as much as 3 °C or more in as little as 50 yr. On centennial time scales, changes in Antarctic Intermediate Water physical properties (benthic foraminiferal δ 18 O) covary with those in the surface and are associated with shifts in tropical temperatures, thermocline nutrient dynamics, and ENSO, suggesting that they are part of a common Pacific-wide phenomenon. Our results reveal that natural variability in upper ocean properties is greater than previously appreciated and coherent with changes in the tropical thermocline, supporting both theories and models postulating the importance of extratropical-tropical teleconnections and the oceanic tunnel in interdecadal to centennial climate variability.

Wind forcing of the ocean and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Wind forcing of the oceans is analysed for a millennium-length period of a simulation with a global coupled model. The time mean value of the zonal wind energy input to the oceans was found to be 0.97 TW, similar to other estimates, with maximum inputs in the Southern Ocean and Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The meridional wind energy input was also evaluated. The time series of the zonal wind energy input consisted of white noise, with marked multiannual and multidecadal variability, and had a range of 1.6 between minimum and maximum values. Seasonal variations in the wind energy input were most marked in the Pacific Ocean. Composites of the various climatic terms involved in the wind energy input, for maximum and minimum values of the input time series, identified distinct differences in anomaly values, particularly over the Southern Ocean. The temporal variability of the Pacific equatorial wind energy input was clearly identified with ENSO events. The model reproduced the observed structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation surprisingly well. The time series of this circulation exhibited interannual to centennial variability. Correlations, both instantaneous and lagged, failed to identify any meaningful relationship between the temporal variability of the circulation and the wind energy input to the Southern Ocean. The optimum correlation was found between time smoothed versions of the time series for this circulation and the heat input to the North Atlantic Ocean, implying, as noted elsewhere, that this heat input is the principal driver of the temporal variability of the circulation.

A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high‐resolution paleoclimatology

AbstractThe high‐resolution reconstruction of hemispheric‐scale temperature variation over the past‐millennium benchmarks recent warming against more naturally driven climate episodes, such as the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period, thereby allowing assessment of the relative efficacies of natural and anthropogenic forcing factors. Icons of past temperature variability, as featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports over nearly two decades, have changed from a schematic sketch in 1990, to a seemingly well‐solved story in 2001, to more explicit recognition of significant uncertainties in 2007. In this article, we detail the beginning of the movement to reconstruct large‐scale temperatures, highlight major steps forward, and present our views on what remains to be accomplished. Despite significant efforts and progress, the spatial representation of reconstructions is limited, and the interannual and centennial variation are poorly quantified. Research priorities to reduce reconstruction uncertainties and improve future projections, include (1) increasing the role of expert assessment in selecting and incorporating the highest quality proxy data in reconstructions (2) employing reconstruction ensemble methodology, and (3) further improvements of forcing series. We suggest that much of the sensitivity in the reconstructions, a topic that has dominated scientific debates, can be traced back to the input data. It is perhaps advisable to use fewer, but expert‐assessed proxy records to reduce errors in future reconstruction efforts. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends &gt; Paleoclimate

Mid- to late-Holocene paleoceanographic changes on the southeastern Brazilian shelf based on grain size records

High-resolution grain size analyses of three AMS 14C-dated cores from the Southeastern Brazilian shelf provide a detailed record of mid- to late-Holocene environmental changes in the Southwestern Atlantic Margin.The cores exhibit millennial variability that we associate with the previously described southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) average latitudinal position over the South American continent during the Holocene climatic maximum. This generated changes in the wind-driven current system of the SW Atlantic margin and modified the grain size characteristics of the sediments deposited there. Centennial variations in the grain size are associated with a previously described late-Holocene enhancement of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude, which led to stronger NNE trade winds off eastern Brazil, favouring SW transport of sediments from the Paraiba do Sul River. This is recorded in a core from off Cabo Frio as a coarsening trend from 3000 cal. BP onwards. The ENSO enhancement also caused changes in precipitation and wind pattern in southern Brazil, allowing high discharge events and northward extensions of the low-saline water plume from Río de la Plata. We propose that this resulted in a net increase in northward alongshore transport of fine sediments, seen as a prominent fine-shift at 2000 cal. BP in a core from ~24°S on the Brazilian shelf. Wavelet- and spectral analysis of the sortable silt records show a significant ~1000-yr periodicity, which we attribute to solar forcing. If correct, this is one of the first indications of solar forcing of this timescale on the Southwestern Atlantic margin.

Centennial variation in the chemical composition of river water in the Khabarovsk water node

Variations in the chemical composition of the surface waters near Khabarovsk are described for the period of 1896–2008. Seasonal variations in the chemical composition of the Amur and Ussuri waters are shown. The hydrochemical characteristics of the Kazakevicheva, Pryamaya, and Amurskaya passages are presented. The results obtained show that the concentrations of the main ions, as well as biogenic and organic substances, depend on the location of the maximal river runoff in the Amur basin. The impact of economic activities in the Middle Amur area on the dissolved matter content in the Amur and Ussuri rivers near Khabarovsk, as well as the distribution of these substance concentrations across the Amur River and the Amurskaya passage, is described. During the 50 years of regular observations, the mineralization of the Amur water in the winter low-water period has decreased by 1.5 times and the organic matter content has increased by 2 times.

Multi-Millennial Fire History of the Giant Forest, Sequoia National Park, California, USA

Giant sequoias (Sequoiadendron giganteum [Lindl.] J. Buchholz) preserve a detailed history of fire within their annual rings. We developed a 3000 year chronology of fire events in one of the largest extant groves of ancient giant sequoias, the Giant Forest, by sampling and tree-ring dating fire scars and other fire-related indicators from 52 trees distributed over an area of about 350 ha. When all fire events were included in composite chronologies, the mean fire intervals (years between fires of any size) declined as a function of increasing spatial extent from tree, to group, to multiple groups, to grove scales: 15.5 yr (0.1 ha), 7.4 yr (1 ha.), 3.0 yr (70 ha), and 2.2 yr (350 ha), respectively. We interpreted widespread fires (i.e., fire events recorded on ≥2 trees, or ≥25% of all trees recording fires within composites) to have occurred in areas of 70 ha to 350 ha at mean intervals ranging from about 6 yr to 35 yr. We compared the annual, multi-decadal and centennial variations in Giant Forest fire frequency with those documented in tree-ring and charcoal-based fire chronologies from four other giant sequoia groves in the Sierra Nevada, and with independent tree-ring-based reconstructions of summer drought and temperatures. The other giant sequoia fire histories (tree rings and charcoal-based) were significantly (P < 0.001) correlated with the Giant Forest fire frequency record and independent climate reconstructions, and confirm a maximum fire frequency during the warm and drought-prone period from 800 C.E. to 1300 C.E. (Common Era). This was the driest period of the past two millennia, and it may serve as an analog for warming and drying effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the next few decades. Sequoias can sustain very high fire frequencies, and historically they have done so during warm, dry times. We suggest that preparation of sequoia groves for anticipated warming may call for increasing the rate of prescribed burning in most parts of the Giant Forest.