Centennial Scales Research Articles

Temperature variations evidenced by records on the latest spring snowing dates in Hangzhou of eastern China during 1131-1270AD

We collected and verified documentary records of the latest spring snowing dates (LSSD) in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty. Furtherly, the statistical correlation between this proxy and February–April mean temperature in Hangzhou was examined, and samples later than the perennial mean of the LSSD during Southern Song Dynasty were transformed into the decadal mean of LSSD by means of Boltzmann function. General characteristics of this reconstructed LSSD series with a 10-year temporal resolution was analyzed, and it was also compared with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for the period 1131–1270. The results and discussion suggested that: (1) Records of the LSSD in Hangzhou during Southern Song Dynasty did not refer to ice pellets and graupels, which had an explicit climate significance (−0.34°C/10d, R2=0.37, p<0.001). However, when this proxy is used to reconstruct temperature changes, all dates should be converted into proleptic Gregorian style and meet the same criterion of “true Qi” as the Chinese traditional calendar after 1929. (2) The decadal mean of LSSD can be effectively estimated by using the forefront of LSSD in the decade on the basis of Boltzmann function, whose extrapolation has a lesser uncertainty than those on the basis of linear models or polynomial models. (3) The spring climate in Hangzhou during 1131–1270 was almost as warm as the period 1951–1980. At the centennial scale, this period can be divided into two phases: the cold 1131–1170 and the warm 1171–1270. In the latter, 1181–1200 and 1221–1240 were two cold intervals at the multi-decadal scale. (4) The reconstructed LSSD series was consistent well with other documentary evidences and reconstructed climate series in China for 1131–1270, which may reflect the influence on the climate over most regions of China imposed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Millennial-scale terrestrial ecosystem responses to Upper Pleistocene climatic changes: 4D-reconstruction of the Schwalbenberg Loess-Palaeosol-Sequence (Middle Rhine Valley, Germany)

Loess-Palaeosol-Sequences (LPS) in the Central European region provide outstanding terrestrial polygenetic and multiphase archives responding to past climate and environments over various spatial and temporal scales. As yet, however, the geomorphological and pedogenic processes involved in LPS formation, and their interplay with changes in ecological conditions, impede robust correlation with other palaeoenvironmental archives. The Schwalbenberg LPS, which drape a hillslope in the Middle Rhine Valley in western Central Europe, provide unique high-resolution records highly suitable for investigating the processes involved in their formation and the relationship to climatic influences during the Upper Pleistocene. Here we present the first comprehensive multi-proxy dataset for the Schwalbenberg LPS over four dimensions. We undertake systematic analyses along a representative slope transect using surface-based geophysical prospection in combination with Direct Push hydraulic profiling to characterise the subsurface stratigraphy in detail. We integrate selected sedimentological and geochemical proxy data from three long sediment cores and two profile sections to build a complete stratigraphical succession for the Schwalbenberg LPS. We show that the transect approach allows quantification of different formation phases, whether accumulative, erosive or pedogenic in character. In so doing we overcome the bias inherent in studies of individual sections and enable robust and reliable correlation with other climate archives. For the time interval ~ 80–15 ka BP correlation of combined lithostratigraphic features and organic carbon contents from Schwalbenberg with the Sofular and NGRIP δ18O-records can be established at millennial to centennial scale resolution, highlighting the sensitivity of western European LPS to the Atlantic-driven climate oscillations in much more detail than in any other terrestrial archive known in the region so far.

Asynchronous 500-year summer monsoon rainfall cycles between Northeast and Central China during the Holocene

Although the summer monsoon is the dominant source of precipitation in the East Asian monsoon region (EAMR), there is long-standing uncertainty about the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation on the centennial time scale. In this study we analyzed two well-dated, high-resolution, published paleoclimatic records in order to determine the variability of precipitation in the EAMR during the Holocene. One record is a decadal-resolution pollen record from an annually-laminated Maar lake in Northeast (NE) China, and the other is a U Th dated, multi-decadal-resolution speleothem record from Central China. Advanced time-series analysis of the two records provides unambiguous evidence for asynchronous summer monsoon rainfall variability on centennial to millennial time scales in the EAMR. The pollen and speleothem records indicate long-term and ~ 500-yr quasi-periodic changes in humid/dry climatic shifts against the background of an insolation-forced climatic trend throughout the past 8580 years. Phases of wetter climate (during ~7000–5500 cal yr BP) and drier climate (during ~1400–300 cal yr BP) in NE China are closely related to different climatic phases in Central China. However, the ~500-yr cyclic rainfall changes in Central China lag those in NE China by several decades to almost two centuries. During the ~500-yr periodic changes in the monsoon, a climatic pattern encapsulated as “Northern drought, southern flooding” prevailed during an El Niño-like phase, whereas the opposite pattern “Southern drought, northern flooding” occurred during a La Niña-like phase. The asynchronous pattern of ~500-yr climatic cyclicity between the northern and southern EAMR may have been caused by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, linked to low-latitude oceanic and atmospheric interactions. • Holocene rainfall changes between Northeast and Central China are asynchronous. • 500-year cyclic rainfall changes in Central China lag those in Northeast China. • The lag of the 500-year rainfall cycles is several decades to almost two centuries. • Rainfall changes in Northeast and Central China are anti-phased on the millennial scale.

Eolian dust activity during the last ~850 years on the southeastern margin of the arid Central Asia

Eolian dust activity studies on the arid Central Asia (ACA), one of the world's largest dust sources, are of great importance to the global climatic system. Grain size distributions (GSDs) can provide information on sediment sources, transport processes and sedimentary environments. As a result, GSD is the most frequently applied proxy in reconstruction of past eolian dust activities of the ACA using lake sediments. The GSD dataset for a core spanning the last ~850 years from Kuhai Lake on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau was unmixed by end-member analysis (EMA) for reconstruction of past eolian dust activities on the southeastern margin of the ACA. The results suggest that EM 2 and EM 3, which were added together to form an eolian dust activity proxy, represent the proximal eolian suspension and saltation loads, respectively. The fractional abundances of EMs suggest that siliciclastic materials in the studied core were mainly from eolian contributions. The occurrence of enhanced eolian dust activities within the cold Little Ice Age period together with the GSDs of EM 2 and EM 3 indicate that eolian dust activities on the southeastern margin of the ACA were basically governed by the Siberian High-produced Asian Winter Monsoon over the last millennium. At decadal to centennial scales, enhanced eolian dust activities generally correspond to warm periods with high total solar irradiance (TSI). Increased temperatures as the result of high TSI would have caused larger increases in evaporation than in precipitation, and hence deteriorated vegetation cover and increased dust sources availability.

Climate and sea level variability on a centennial time scale over the last 1500 years as inferred from the Coastal Peatland of Puck Lagoon (southern Baltic Sea)

The climate variability and related sea-level changes during the Holocene are still under discussion, especially in a regional context. Very little information comes from the southern and south-eastern Baltic coast. The aim of the paper is to gain insight on the history of regional environmental changes, particularly sea-level and storminess, and their driving forces. The investigations were located on a peatland on the coast of Puck Lagoon (Gulf of Gdańsk, southern Baltic Sea). The analysis of peat core comprised: radiocarbon dating, analysis of stable isotopes 18O and 13C and chemical components, as well as palynological and diatomic studies. Results showed the 1.0 m peat section accumulated over 1500 years, with a time resolution of 100 years per sample. The average water level in the Puck Lagoon rose by ca. 0.85 m during the last 1500 years in a cyclic mode, with a period cycle of ca. 600–550 years and an amplitude not exceeding 0.5 m. The accelerated sea level rise and frequent storminess occurred during the first half of the Dark Ages (1500−1300 years b2k) and LIA (750−450 years b2k) and since the beginning of the 20th century. Recognized environmental changes are well correlated with both temperature changes in the North Atlantic and changes in total solar irradiance, suggesting synchronous Northern Hemisphere-wide fluctuations. The solar forcing was an important constituent of natural climate variability in the past and of forcing climate warming during modern times - after the Little Ice Age.

In-phase and out-of-phase behavior of the East Asian summer and winter monsoons recorded in the South Yellow Sea sediment over the past 9.5 ka

AbstractThe variability of the East Asian monsoon (EAM) during the Holocene exhibits significant regional response, and its evolution needs further discussion. A well-dated, high-resolution sea-surface temperature record based on long-chain unsaturated alkenones, grain-size data, and clay mineral assemblages from the South Yellow Sea sediment is presented to investigate the sedimentary provenance and reconstruct the EAM over the past 9.5 ka. The results show that the sediments are most likely supplied by the Huanghe. The evolution of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) can be divided into three periods: strong and relatively stable conditions during 9.5–7.0 ka, weakened conditions during 7.0–1.5 ka, and strengthened conditions during 1.5–0 ka. The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) has experienced five periods: weakened conditions during 9.5–6.7 ka, weak and relatively stable conditions during 6.7–5.6 ka, strong and relatively stable conditions during 5.6–2.6 ka, strengthened conditions during 2.6–1.5 ka, and weak and stable conditions during 1.5–0 ka. Moreover, in-phase correlation was found between the EAWM and EASM at the orbital time scale in response to orbital-driven solar insolation, but out-of-phase correlation at a centennial time scale is predominantly associated with solar activity.

Atmospheric Nitrous Oxide Variations on Centennial Time Scales During the Past Two Millennia

AbstractThe continuous growth of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) is of concern for its potential role in global warming and future stratospheric ozone destruction. Climate feedbacks that enhance N2O emissions in response to global warming are not well understood, and past records of N2O from ice cores are not sufficiently well resolved to examine the underlying climate‐N2O feedbacks on societally relevant time scales. Here, we present a new high‐resolution and high‐precision N2O reconstruction obtained from the Greenland NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) and the Antarctic Styx Glacier ice cores. Covering the N2O history of the past two millennia, our reconstruction shows a centennial‐scale variability of ~10 ppb. A pronounced minimum at ~600 CE coincides with the reorganizations of tropical hydroclimate and ocean productivity changes. Comparisons with proxy records suggest association of centennial‐ to millennial‐scale variations in N2O with changes in tropical and subtropical land hydrology and marine productivity.

Similarities and differences in driving factors of precipitation changes on the western Loess Plateau and the northeastern Tibetan Plateau at different timescales

Climate change constitutes the superposition of climatic variations at different timescales and is affected by driving factors at multiple scales. Therefore, clarifying the changes in and driving factors of the climate at different timescales is crucial for climate predictions. Here, using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method, we obtained four components of the western Loess Plateau (WLP) precipitation at the interannual, interdecadal, multidecadal and centennial scales and the long-term change trend, which accounted for 40.4, 33.5, 11.5, 11.6 and 3.0%, respectively, of the total variance in the tree-ring-based precipitation reconstruction during 1566–2013 AD. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) mainly affected the interannual-decadal, multidecadal and centennial changes, respectively, before increasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions began influencing the WLP precipitation. Using the same method, we also obtained four components of the precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP) at different timescales and found that the interannual-decadal and multidecadal changes in the precipitation on the NETP exhibited good relationships with the changes in the WLP precipitation over the past four centuries and were also mainly affected by ENSO and the PDO, respectively. The correlation between the WLP and NETP precipitation at the centennial scale was mainly positive, and the precipitation relationship between these two regions was affected by solar radiation and the AMV to some extent. However, due to the effects of global warming on NETP precipitation and the effects of increasing anthropogenic aerosols on WLP precipitation, this correlation has become negative in recent decades, indicating that without the influences of human activities, the precipitation on the WLP would be positively related to the NETP precipitation.

Abrupt CO2 release to the atmosphere under glacial and early interglacial climate conditions.

Pulse-like carbon dioxide release to the atmosphere on centennial time scales has only been identified for the most recent glacial and deglacial periods and is thought to be absent during warmer climate conditions. Here, we present a high-resolution carbon dioxide record from 330,000 to 450,000 years before present, revealing pronounced carbon dioxide jumps (CDJ) under cold and warm climate conditions. CDJ come in two varieties that we attribute to invigoration or weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and associated northward and southward shifts of the intertropical convergence zone, respectively. We find that CDJ are pervasive features of the carbon cycle that can occur during interglacial climate conditions if land ice masses are sufficiently extended to be able to disturb the AMOC by freshwater input.

A Continuous Record of Central Tropical Pacific Climate Since the Midnineteenth Century Reconstructed From Fanning and Palmyra Island Corals: A Case Study in Coral Data Reanalysis

AbstractAccurate estimation of central tropical Pacific (CTP) climate variability on interannual to centennial time scales is required for robust projections of future global climate trends. Here we outline an approach that blends instrumental and coral proxy observations to yield a continuous, monthly resolved record of climate evolution in the CTP spanning the past 160 years. We concatenate coral oxygen isotope (δ18O) records from multiple living and fossil corals collected from Fanning Island (4°N, 160°W) and Palmyra Island (5°N; 162°W) located in the heart of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We use the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) method to impute missing data across short gaps of 5 to 23 years within and beyond individual coral records. The resulting monthly resolved Fanning/Palmyra Island climate record spans continuously from 1863 to 2016 and provides an example of how extended time series can be built from shorter coral segments. The extended record highlights the strong trend toward warmer and wetter mean conditions in late twentieth century, in agreement with the majority of climate model hindcast simulations. The continuous reconstruction also enables a direct comparison of four exceptionally strong El Niño events (1877–1878, 1940–1941, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016). Three of these very strong El Niño events in the CTP featured a precursor warm event in the prior year and that may have favored the development of a strong El Niño event.

The Tropical Pacific ENSO–Mean State Relationship in Climate Models over the Last Millennium

AbstractENSO and the mean zonal sea surface temperature gradient (dSST) of the tropical Pacific are important drivers of global climate and vary on decadal to centennial time scales. However, the relationship between dSST and ENSO cannot be assessed with the short instrumental record, and is uncertain in proxy data, with intervals of both stronger and weaker ENSO postulated to occur with overall strong dSST in the past. Here we assess the ENSO–dSST relationship during the last millennium using general circulation models (GCMs) participating in phase 3 of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project. Last millennium GCM simulations show diversity in the strength and direction of the ENSO–dSST relationship. Yet, the models that best simulate modern tropical Pacific climate frequently have a more negative ENSO–dSST correlation. Thus, last millennium tropical Pacific climate simulations support the likelihood of enhanced ENSO during decadal to centennial periods of reduced tropical Pacific dSST. However, the alternating directional ENSO–dSST relationship in all model simulations suggests that this relationship is not constant through time and is likely controlled by multiple mechanisms.

Tree-growth at the rear edge of a Nothofagus pumilio Andean forest from Northern Patagonia show different patterns and a decline in the common signal during the last century

Nothofagus pumilio is the dominant tree species at high elevations in the southern Andes between 35° and 55° S. Despite the number of tree-growth studies on this tree species, there is scarce information about the growth patterns and its relation with climatic variability at its lower elevation margin of distribution in the windward side of the Andes. In this study we focus on the altitudinal rear edge of a N. pumilio forest growing on the Pacific side of the northern Patagonian Andes to determine the main temporal patterns of tree radial growth, identify its relations with regional and large-scale climate and to assess the temporal variation of common signal in tree growth at centennial time-scales.A Principal Component Analysis (PCA) between trees for their common period 1850–2010 indicates the existence of more than one pattern of tree growth within this lower altitudinal margin, which exhibit contrasting relations with climate. The tree ring chronology and the PC1 amplitude of tree growth shows negative correlation with maximum temperature during spring-summer while the PC2 shows the contrary. Maps and correlation functions indicate that the PC1 and PC2 patterns of N. pumilio growth are significantly related with high latitude climate variability induced by the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) during spring-summer in an opposite manner, with the PC1 (PC2) negatively (positively) correlated with the poleward displacement of the storm tracks driven by the mid- and high-latitude dipole pressure in the Southern Hemisphere. The running PCA between the standardized tree ring-width series shows a decreasing trend in the percentage of variance explained by the first mode of tree growth, indicating a centennial scale loss in the common signal of growth within the population, especially since mid-20th century when the behavior of the AAO was unprecedented within the context of the last millennium.Given that the future climatic scenario for northern Patagonia as predicted by models would led to more arid conditions forced by the positive trend of the AAO, we expect that the main pattern of N. pumilio growth at the rear edge of Choshuenco volcano will be negatively affected. Despite the present knowledge about N. pumilio radial growth in treeline environments, specific research is needed to gain insights about the complexity of the climate-growth relationship at its low elevation margin, in order to evaluate anomalies in tree growth patterns in the habitat where N. pumilio grows and competes with other low elevation species more tolerant to warmer conditions.

Indian summer monsoon variability during the last millennium as recorded in stalagmite from Baratang Mahadev cave, Andaman Islands

This study presents a stable oxygen isotope record of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) variability using cave speleothem carbonate from Baratang Island (Andaman Islands) encompassing the last millennium (from 10th to 19th century CE). The studied interval encompasses two major climatic events; the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) as well as the Current Warm Period (CWP). Our data suggest generally higher precipitation during the warm MCA when the ISM was relatively strong, and low precipitation during the cold LIA with a few exceptions when wet conditions prevailed. The Baratang cave record shows greater similarity with the records from the Sahiya and Klang caves, and opposite trends relative to those from the northeastern Himalaya owing to the dipolar nature of ISM precipitation. High-frequency sub-decadal to centennial scale pulses of weakened summer monsoons are observed during 16th to 19th century CE. These phases of weak ISM are correlated with severe droughts and famines in the Indian subcontinent owing to deficient monsoon rainfall, which had pronounced effect on South Asian societies. Spectral analysis suggests a strong periodicity of 190 yr (de Vries cycle) indicating strong influence of solar insolation.

Climate change fostered cultural dynamics of human resilience in Europe in the past 2500 years

Humans possess limited knowledge on what generated cultural dynamics to strengthen human resilience to overcome climate-induced stresses. Although the highly developed mental ability of humans could have enabled significant human resilience in history, no study has empirically explained or has even scientifically confirmed how and when such dynamics arose. To fill the current research gap, this study therefore explores the associations among climatic conditions, the evolutional dynamics of human thinkers and their thoughts, and human ecological–socioeconomic conditions in the past 2500 years in Europe. Results from quantitative modellings and causal analyses confirm that climatic–ecological stresses led to human ecological–socioeconomic crises, and thereby dramatically increased twice of the thinkers' number and their thoughts' impact across different philosophies in truth, knowledge, and ethics for adaptation at multi-decadal to centennial temporal scales, especially in spirituality oriented mentality. The process of the stress-generated cultural dynamics displays some similarities with the stress-induced mutagenesis in organism evolution. Ultimately, climatic–ecological stresses prompt the escalation in the number of thinkers and impacts of their thoughts and flourishing of philosophy. Such stress-regenerated cultural dynamics imply that the current climate change threat may stimulate another thriving phase of cultural selection and lift humans to the next homeostatic plateau of civilization. Findings also extend the cognate scope of psychological, sociological, and civilization studies.

Temporal variability of flooding events of Guadiana River (Iberian Peninsula) during the middle to late Holocene: Imprints in the shallow-marine sediment record

Sedimentological, geochemical and benthic foraminiferal proxies were used to interpret changes of depositional environments in a mud entrapment inside the Guadiana River paleo-valley, northern Gulf of Cadiz, to understand the temporal variability of fluvial flooding events and to detect patterns of latitudinal climatic variability in western Iberia.The period between ca. 5800 and ca. 1250 cal yr BP was characterized by slowly accumulating coarse-grained sediments, high content of biogenic sand components, and high abundances of shallow-water benthic foraminiferal species. After ca. 1250 cal yr BP, the sedimentary environment was dominated by fine-grained sediments, with high abundances of opportunistic benthic foraminiferal species and successful colonizers, and high values of geochemical ratios indicative of enhanced terrigenous supply. Sedimentation rates increased drastically over the last ca. 500 years.The genesis of these environments was mainly driven by the variable frequency of fluvial flooding events driven by the regional climate variability. Low terrigenous sediment input under dry conditions prevailed in the older sedimentary unit. Flood frequency and terrigenous sediment supply increased during the younger unit. The variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation at centennial scales highly influenced the sediment supply during the last ca. 500 years, with high terrigenous supply during negative NAO conditions. Our results corroborate an N-S gradient along the Atlantic Iberia during middle and late Holocene, with more humid conditions in the northwestern and drier conditions towards the southeast. The gradient weakened over the past ca. 500 years, with increased rainfalls and flood events during the Little Ice Age.

Influence of very large spatial heterogeneity on estimates of sea-level trends

Abstract We propose a new method to estimate sub-decadal to centennial time scales of sea-level change. Since the coastal data exhibit large spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability, the global sea-level rate is estimated as an appropriate average of the rates observed at available locations and computed with sliding windows. We claim that under such heterogeneity the median serves as a better representative of an adequate average than the mean. With this approach, the sea-level rate in 60 to 70 yr windows over the past century is found to be smaller than 1.7-1.9 mm/yr. These upper estimates are in line with those obtained with a scarce list of available long quasi-gapless series.

Tidal sand ridges on the shelf: A numerical study of their natural morphodynamic evolution and response to interventions

Tidal sand ridges are large-scale bottom features that occur on continental shelves with strong tidal currents and abundance of sand. These ridges have longshore spacings of several kilometres, heights of tens of metres, they evolve on centennial time scales and their crests are cyclonically rotated with respect to the direction of the dominant tidal currents. The coupled Delft3D-SWAN numerical model is used to study the natural morphodynamic evolution of tidal sand ridges and their response to interventions (sand extraction and construction of islands) in a setting that resembles the Belgian shelf. New aspects in this study are that a sophisticated wave model (SWAN), a shelf with a sloping bottom and state-of-the-art formulations for sediment transport (including suspended load) are considered.Starting from an initially flat bed, model results show that sand ridges develop on the shelf that have similar characteristics as those of observed tidal sand ridges. Results further show that ridges recover after sand extraction, i.e., the original sand volume of the ridge crests is recovered on decadal time scales. Deepening of the troughs provides sand for this recovery. The recovery of the ridges is weaker when pits are located further offshore and/or are deeper. Ridges recover faster when waves are included. If a sand pit is too deep (>4 m), the ridge loses sand in the first tens of years prior to its recovery on longer time scales. This initial sand loss seems to agree with the observed loss of sand volume from a tidal sand ridge on the Belgium shelf (Kwinte Bank), which has been subject to intense extractions.Model results further show that islands lose sand on decadal time scales until they eventually disappear. This sand loss is deposited on the crests and in the troughs. The presence of islands causes the surrounding ridges to break into smaller ridges that have smaller orientation angles than those of the natural case. Using different island configurations (location, geometry and number of islands, longshore distance between islands) does not lead to qualitative changes of the model results.

Reconstruction of the East Asian Summer monsoon rainfall distribution at centennial scale during the Last Glacial Maximum

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), defined as the period between 23 and 19 ka, is considered a key climatic period with conditions in great contrast to the present. Study of this period may reveal aspects of global ice-sheet sensitivity to regional and global climate change which is critical in understanding climate teleconnections and feedback mechanisms. A stalagmite record from Linglong cave, Central China, in combination with other high-resolution stalagmite records from Southwest China and East China existing on the same moisture transport pathway allows a reconstruction of rainfall patterns during the LGM by making use of the δ18O differences between stalagmite records. The rainfall around both Southwest and Central East China show a prominent change centered at ~24 ka corresponding to the H2 event, one of the Heinrich events related to North Atlantic ice-rafting. Also, in Central East China around the periods at 22 and 20 ka, the rainfall is lower than the average during the whole LGM, while around 23, 21 and 19 ka the rainfall is higher than the average, which is opposite to the rainfall variation in Southwest China. This apparent dipole rainfall pattern during the LGM is similar to the modern East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） rainfall distribution observed during weak monsoon periods, suggesting a much weaker EASM with its front moving less far north during the LGM than at present, which may link to North Atlantic climate and shifting of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Power spectral analysis reveals that the rainfall variations in Southwest China are mainly controlled by a cycle of ~1000-yr, while in Central East China, it is mainly controlled by cycles of ~1800-yr and ~ 1300 yr, which are all possible solar activity cycles, suggesting that the EASM rainfall on long term scales is dominated by external forces.

Role of AMOC in Transient Climate Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing in Two Coupled Models

AbstractAs the greenhouse gas concentrations increase, a warmer climate is expected. However, numerous internal climate processes can modulate the primary radiative warming response of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas forcing. Here the particular internal climate process that we focus on is the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), an important global-scale feature of ocean circulation that serves to transport heat and other scalars, and we address the question of how the mean strength of AMOC can modulate the transient climate response. While the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM1) have very similar equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, our analysis suggests that a weaker AMOC contributes in part to the higher transient climate response to a rising greenhouse gas forcing seen in E3SM1 by permitting a faster warming of the upper ocean and a concomitant slower warming of the subsurface ocean. Likewise the stronger AMOC in CESM2 by permitting a slower warming of the upper ocean leads in part to a smaller transient climate response. Thus, while the mean strength of AMOC does not affect the equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity, it is likely to play an important role in determining the transient climate response on the centennial time scale.

Severe Historical Droughts Carved on Rock in the Yangtze

AbstractThe White Crane Ridge (WCR) Rock Fish, now submerged under the backwater of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the Yangtze River, are affirmed as one of the earliest hydrologic observations ever made in any large river in the world. The usually in-water monument provides highly valuable historical records of severe droughts in the upper Yangtze over the last 1,200 years. This article updated the historical drought chronology previously developed based on the WCR inscriptions, which can be applied in assessment of extreme climatic and hydrological risks, and also made a preliminary analysis of changes of the severe drought frequency during the last thousand years in the upper Yangtze. The analysis shows that the severe droughts occurred more frequently during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), relatively less so during the Little Ice Age (LIA), and once again more often under the background of modern global warming. It was suggested that a generally warmer Euro-Asian continent during the MCA was in favor of the stronger East Asian summer monsoon, and the resulting less precipitation and more severe droughts of the Yangtze and the lower water level at the Three Gorges area on the centennial scale, and vice versa for the period of the LIA. The results would help in understanding the causes and mechanisms of the regional climate change and variability, and also in taking measures in the fields of the watershed management to cope with the long-term change in climatic and hydrologic droughts.