Cent Rise Research Articles

Export Instability, Investment, Export Growth and Economic Growth in India

The “Export-led Growth Hypothesis,” as it is known in the literature, is still a popular issue in both theoretical and empirical research. According to the export-led growth hypothesis (ELGH), a key factor in determining growth is the expansion of exports. It asserts that growing capital and labour inputs into the economy as well as exports can contribute to a country’s overall growth. The association between economic development, export growth, export fluctuation, and real effective exchange rate (REER) in India from 2001 to 2021 is examined in this paper using a multiple linear regression analysis model. Additionally, the impacts of foreign exchange, export fluctuation on investment, and import of capital goods have also been studied. The autocorrelation is also tested using the Durbin-Watson (D-W) test. Investigation of the association between income growth and exports in the context of India reveals that the country’s exports haven’t increased significantly enough to prove the theory of export-led growth. For instance, ceteris paribus, one per cent change in exports over time is expected to result in a 0.007 per cent increase in GDP. Weaker global demand, inflation, dropping exports, and growing global trade conflict all contribute to a weaker-than-expected positive link between GDP and exports. However, the findings have also shown that one per cent rise in instability increases GDP by 5.04 per cent. Furthermore, research has indicated that export instability does contribute to import for capital goods and demonstrates the relationship between investment and export instability is positive but not statistically significant. The result for policy is that, in order to decrease the negative impacts of export fluctuations, India should concentrate on those goods in which it has a competitive edge. The primary factors of the excessive volatility and restricted growth must be fully investigated in order to mitigate instability, and inherent flaws must be addressed.

An Application of Social Accounting Matrix to Analyse the Growth Linkages of Sericulture in a Village Economy

Sericulture is an important avenue in rural areas. Karnataka stands second in position in the mulberry silk production of the country during 2020-21. The study describes constructing a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) framework for Naguvanahalli village, Mandya district, Karnataka state, to understand the effect of investment in sericulture on the income distribution of the selected village economy. Sericulture is practised in the Naguvanahalli village through the State Department of Sericulture, Karnataka, and Central Silk Board, Bangalore. Purposive sampling was adopted for data collection from 30 households and 42 economic agents during 2020-21. The SAM framework provides inter-sectoral linkages across the sectors within the village. With `10 lakhs further investment in sericulture as a simulation, there was an impact of 1.82 per cent rise in the aggregate volume of transactions or `14,26,100, implying 4754 labour days or full-time employment to 14 households for 320 employment days per annum per household. The indirect impact on labour employment was 71.17 per cent of the effect of 1.82 per cent. The promotion of sericulture succeeded in generating higher employment and income multipliers, but it still requires strengthened awareness creation in the village.

The safety risk of information overload and bureaucracy in oncology clinical trial conduct

Performance of clinical trials has led to major therapeutic developments and substantial improvements in the field of medical oncology. To ensure patient's safety, regulatory aspects for proper clinical trial conduct have been increased over the past two decades but seem to cause information overload and ineffective bureaucracy, possibly even impacting patient safety. To put this in perspective, after the implementation of Directive 2001/20/EC in the European Union, a 90 per cent increase in trial launching time, a 25 per cent decrease in patient participation and a 98 per cent rise in administrative trial costs were reported. The time to initiate a clinical trial has increased from a few months to several years in the past three decades. Moreover, there is a serious risk that information overload with relatively unimportant data endangers the decision-making processes and distracts from essential patient safety information. It is now a critical moment in time to improve efficient clinical trial conduct for our future patients diagnosed with cancer. We are convinced that a reduction of the administrative regulations, information overload, and simplification of the procedures for trial conductance may improve patient safety. In this Current Perspective, we give insight in the current regulatory aspects of clinical research, evaluate the practical consequences of these regulations, and propose specific improvements for optimal clinical trial conduct.

The Nexus Between Energy and Trade in South Asia: A Panel Analysis

Following Sadorsky (Energy Economics, 2011, 33, 739), we examine the nexus between energy and trade in South Asia in a panel framework using annual data from 1990 to 2015. Given the cross‐sectional dependency issue, we use robust second‐generation panel econometric methods for the analysis. We find that variables are stationary at the first difference and cointegrated in the long run. The Dumitrescu‐Hurlin panel causality test shows a long‐run unidirectional causality from trade openness to energy consumption but not vice versa. Moreover, the panel symmetric and asymmetric estimation techniques reveal that energy consumption rises by 0.47 per cent on average and 0.83 per cent, with a 1 per cent rise in trade openness in the long run. However, a negative shock of similar magnitude reduces energy consumption by 0.37 per cent. We further fortify the panel results in the country‐level data with robust methods. We recommend energy efficiency and conservation policies and renewable energy technology augmentation policies through bilateral or multilateral trade strategies for sustainable development in the selected South Asian countries.

Analysing the nexus between income inequality and military expenditure in top ten defence expenditure economies

This paper contributes to the literature on military expenditure by examining the relationship between military expenditure and inequality in the distribution of income in a panel set of top ten defence spenders over 1990 to 2015, including also wide specification of control variables. In particular, we explore the impact of military spending on three different measures of inequality, (i) Gini Measure, (ii) Theil Measure and iii) Income shared by the top 20 per cent of the population. Further, we also utilize different concepts of military spending in our analysis. The findings highlight that the impact of military spending on income inequality is negative. The findings are based on second generation panel estimation techniques. One per cent rise in military expenditure explored through the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects Estimation reduces Gini inequality by 2.90 per cent, reduces Theil measure of inequality by 0.12 per cent and reduces Top 20 per cent measure of inequality by 11 per cent. The findings of inequality reducing the impact of military expenditure are confirmed through alternative robustness tests. However, there are also some conflicting conclusions, for example, the application of the non-linear function of military expenditure makes the results sensitive to the different specification of inequality.

Income, housing wealth, and private school access in Britain

ABSTRACT Access to Britain’s highly-resourced private schools matters because of concerns surrounding social mobility. Using the UK Family Resources Survey, we document a high and mostly stable income concentration of private school access since 1997. Nevertheless, some low-income participation persists. Bursaries are income-progressive but cannot account for this participation. Housing wealth is, however, found to be greater for private school participants. We estimate that a 10 per cent rise of family income and home value raises private school participation by 0.9 points, respectively. Neither effect changes over time. The income effect, however, falls sharply outside the top income decile.

INDONESIA’S BANK RESPONSE OF INTEREST RATES TO THE PRICES OF WORLD CRUDE OIL AND FOREIGN RATES OF INTEREST

This paper focused to examine the interest-rates response specified by the Bank of Indonesia’s () to the world crude oil prices and foreign rate of interest. It examined monthly data which ranged from the period of August 2004 to November 2019. The difference equation model was employed for this estimation. The test findings indicated that there was a direct response of the rate of interest specified by to the world crude oil price and foreign rate of interest. The rate of interest retained by rose (fell) by 0.124 per cent in response to each one per cent rise (decline) in the world crude oil price. Moreover, the rate of interest rose (fall) by 0.073 per cent in response to each one per cent rise (decline) in the foreign rate of interest.

Necessity or Opportunity Driven: Gender Differentials and Structural Changes of Proprietorship in the Indian Unorganized Enterprises

Using the latest representative datasets of National Sample Survey, this article investigates the structural changes and gender differentials in proprietorship in the Indian unorganized enterprises. This article also identifies the relevant determinants of female proprietorship in the unorganized enterprises. This study distinguishes between two types of female entrepreneurs: necessity and opportunity entrepreneurs, based on their motivation behind operating an enterprise. This study also explores the potential factors responsible for this division. The findings show that there is only 2 per cent rise in the share of female proprietors in over a 5-year period (2010–2011 to 2015–2016) and female proprietors are increasingly concentrated in necessity-driven informal entrepreneurship.

Asymmetric impact of COVID-19 induced uncertainty on inbound Chinese tourists in Australia: insights from nonlinear ARDL model

This paper explores the asymmetric impact of COVID related uncertainty measured by the newly formulated index (Discussion about Pandemics Index), conceptualized by <span class="xref"><a href="#bbaker2020" ref-type="bibr">Baker et al. (2020)</a></span> and postulated by <span class="xref"><a href="#bahir2018" ref-type="bibr">Ahir et al. (2018)</a></span> and <span class="xref"><a href="#bahir2020" ref-type="bibr">Ahir et al. (2020)</a></span> on Chinese tourist arrivals in Australia over the period 1996Q1 to 2020Q1. It is worthwhile to investigate how the pquarantine economyq is adversely impacting tourism in Australia concerning an important market namely the Chinese market. The paper utilized the novel asymmetric (nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model) to capture the asymmetric association between tourism and uncertainty. The main upshot of the research points out that economic policy uncertainty weighted by the pandemics asymmetrically impacts tourist arrivals. One per cent rise in uncertainty leads to a decline in tourist arrivals by 10 per cent while one per cent decline in uncertainty leads to a rise in tourist arrivals by 0.22 per cent. The effect of the positive change of the policy uncertainty index is more infusing than the impact of negative change so the asymmetry is confirmed. Further, the Wald test endorse asymmetry behaviour across the variables.

Foreign Trade in the View of Competitiveness in the EU

Competitiveness is examined at national, regional and corporate levels. The primary aim of the study is to present and analyse the competitiveness of the EU Member States and to evaluate trends. Two statistical indicators are worth considering: the commodity terms of trade (C), also known as the net barter terms of trade (N), and the income terms of trade index (I), which expresses the correlation between changes in prices and quantities. The economic structure allows the surplus in the balance of trade with most countries, and also requires improvement in the exchange rate. The indicator seeks primarily to capture the knowledge capital present in the country, which may facilitated by the structure and characteristics of trade. The export surplus to GDP is extremely high for Ireland, Switzerland and the Netherlands. The United Kingdom, France and Romania recognised negative trade balances. Nominal trading values continued to rise in 2018 as a result of volume and price changes. Global commodity exports increased by 10 per cent, driven mainly by the 20 per cent rise in oil prices. Growth in exports and GDP need rapid development in innovation. Export grows significantly faster in Euro Area Member States then in other EU Member States.

Estimating a Net Exporter’s ‘Bruising-Soothing’ Effect of Swings in World Oil Price: Evidence From Nigeria

Nigeria is an exporter of crude oil, and hence its revenue typically benefits from a positive oil price shock. However, it simultaneously imports gasoline, which also increases in response to positive oil price shocks. As a result, the net import bill combines these two effects. I use a model to separate the two and show that the bill is dominated by changes in oil price. These effects are asymmetric, with a larger effect with oil price decreases than increase. I find that between Feb 2010 and Nov 2014, a one per cent rise (fall) in the price of oil was equivalent to US$1 (US$1.04) in levels. Consequently, this lifts (lowers) the aggregate oil revenue by US$10.3 million (US$13.9 million); and the per litre price on gasoline by 3 cents (4 cents). Both variables respond more to falling (than to rising) oil price. However, the total average monthly import bill of gasoline during rising oil prices is lower (US$1.16 billion) than during falling oil prices (US$1.25 billion).

Evaluating the combustion and emission phenomenon of algal and cotton seed biodiesel as fuel for compression ignition engine

PurposeVast areas have been studied toward combustion and emission analysis in vegetable oil methyl esters and quite a few in algal oil biodiesel. To analyze the better alternate source for diesel engine, this study aims to investigate the combustion behavior and emission characteristics between cottonseed biodiesel and algal oil biodiesel on comparison with mineral diesel in a compression ignition engine.Design/methodology/approachThe fuel properties like density, kinematic viscosity, calorific value and Cetane number have met the biodiesel standards for both algal and cottonseed biodiesel. At rated power, engine was operated on all three test fuels, where combustion analysis describing in-cylinder pressure, peak pressure, rate of pressure rise and rate of heat release and emission characteristics including hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and smoke for both biodiesel comparing mineral diesel.FindingsAlgal and cottonseed biodiesel showed up to 2-3°CA delayed start of combustion comparing mineral diesel curve. The in-cylinder pressure of algal biodiesel was found to be 68 bar, whereas cottonseed biodiesel exhibited 65 bar at full load condition. Similarly, the rate of pressure rise and rate of heat release of algal biodiesel depicted 7.9 and 10.7 per cent rise than cottonseed biodiesel, respectively. As the load increased, ignition delay showed decreasing trend, while combustion duration showed an increasing trend. HC, CO and smoke emissions were seen to be lower than mineral diesel with noticeable increase in NOx emission.Originality/valueIn this present investigation, biodiesel from Stoechospermum Marginatum, a marine marco algae, was used to fuel the compression ignition engine. Its combustion behavior and emission characteristics are compared with cottonseed biodiesel, a vegetable oil-based biodiesel having similar physio-chemical characteristics to understand the suitability of algal biodiesel in compression ignition engine. This study involves the assessment of straight biodiesel from macro algae and cottonseed oil on standard operating conditions.

Renewable Energy Development as a Driver of Economic Growth: Evidence from Multivariate Panel Data Analysis

Renewable energy is being increasingly touted as the “fuel of the future,” which will help to reconcile the prerogatives of high economic growth and an economically friendly development trajectory. This paper seeks to examine relationships between renewable energy production and economic growth and the differential impact on both developed and developing economies. We employed the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) regression model to a sample of 20 developed and developing countries for the period 1995–2016. Our key empirical findings reveal that renewable energy production is associated with a positive and statistically significant impact on economic growth in both developed and developing countries for the period 1995–2016. Our results also show that the impact of renewable energy production on economic growth is higher in developing economies, as compared to developed economies. In developed countries, an increase in renewable energy production leads to a 0.07 per cent rise in output, compared to only 0.05 per cent rise in output for developing countries. These findings have important implications for policymakers and reveal that renewable energy production can offer an environmentally sustainable means of economic growth in the future.

Getting on to a PhD

Over the last decade, there has been a 25 per cent rise in the number of students applying for doctoral-level study across the UK (Universities UK, 2017). Prior to committing to a PhD, applicants must make an informed decision as to whether working towards a PhD is valuable for them in terms of personal and professional development. By answering some of the most frequent questions asked by PhD applicants, this article aims to demystify common myths associated with doctoral-level study

Disaggregated Household Incomes in Hungary Based on the Comparative Analysis of the Reweighted Household Surveys of 2010 and 2015

In the period 2010–2015, the Hungarian employment rate recorded an outstanding increase even by European standards. During this period, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office recorded a 9 per cent increase in the number of employees, coupled with a 15.5 per cent rise in net real wages. This study presents the evolution of these indicators broken down by income groups. In addition to number of employees and labour incomes, changes in the total compensation of pension and social benefit recipients are also discussed in the study. Calculations are based on the 2010 and 2015 data waves of the household budget statistics. One disadvantage of using these data, however, is that they are distorted along the income distribution due to the phenomenon that high earners are typically represented by a low number of observations. The study presents a two-step recalibration procedure with previously unused cohort formation that addresses the aforementioned coverage deficiency with adjustment to external data sources. The material well-being of different household income groups can be tracked in the database produced by the applied method, and the macroeconomic indicators can be supplemented by pieces of distribution information. According to the results defined as the difference between the two years’ data under review, the employment growth in the interim period was determined by the employment of the two lower income quintiles. In the assessment of social benefits, with the limited information available, the chosen tool does not provide a comprehensive view of the changes in these income categories; therefore, the quantified differences between the reweighted sample years’ data should be considered with caution. Broken down by income group, real wage indices exhibited considerable fluctuations.

Peptide polymorphism under recommended dose of nitrogen fertilization in Brassica juncea

Electrophoretically detectable seed storage proteins such as cruciferin, procruciferin and napin in mustard seeds possess the potential for taxonomic and evolutionary characterization of germplasm. This study was intended to see the genetic diversity among 24 genotypes of Indian mustard and the effect of N80 application on the protein profile. SDS-PAGE based profiles of seed proteins showed major differences in banding patterns among these genotypes. A total of eight peptide bands were assayed for their specificity in detecting genetic variability among Brassica genotypes under N0 and N80 conditions. Under N0 condition, a total of 166 bands (86.5%) were scored ranging from 10 kDa to 71 kDa in all genotypes, of which 118 showed polymorphic loci with 71.08 per cent polymorphism and similarity coefficient ranging from 0.375 to 1.0. Genotypes were clustered using UPGMA based clustering method into two major clusters. Cluster-I comprises of two cultivars, while cluster-II included the remaining twenty two cultivars. Under N80 condition, a range of 170 bands (88.5%) were found among 24 genotypes, of which 74 bands showed 38.5 per cent polymorphismwith similarity coefficient ranging from0.5 to 1.0. HB-9916 showed maximum variation (62.5%) in banding pattern of peptides with 3 per cent rise in polymorphism over N0 condition.

Exchange Rate and Economic Growth

This article aims to understand the effects of exchange rate movements on economic growth in Bangladesh. Using a suitable analytical framework to derive an empirical specification, we construct a real exchange rate series and employ cointegration techniques to determine the output response to Bangladeshi currency depreciations. Our results suggest that in the long run, a 10 per cent depreciation of the real exchange rate is associated with, on average, a 3.2 per cent rise in aggregate output. However, a contractionary effect is observed in the short run so that the same magnitude of real depreciation would result in about a half per cent decline in GDP. While the long-run expansionary effect of real depreciations may be appealing for considering exchange rate policy as a development strategy, the likelihood of rising inflationary pressures needs to be kept in mind while pursuing this policy option.

Six in 10 teachers have not been given one per cent rise

Thousands of teachers in the dark on public sector pay rise; Black, minority ethnic, disabled and female staff more likely to miss out

The Relationship between Political Tensions, Trade and Capital Flows in ASEAN Plus Three

AbstractWe estimate the effects of political tension on trade and capital flows in ASEAN Plus Three countries in the framework of a gravity model. We quantify political tension through text‐parsing software reading daily Reuters’ articles from 1990 to 2013 and exclude Brunei and Laos due to sparsity of news coverage. Regarding bilateral trade, we find that political conflict, measured by negative reports in Reuters’ articles, seems to only affect bilateral trade between countries that are not both members of the World Trade Organization (WTO). For these countries, a 1 per cent rise in the tension score results in a 0.05 per cent decline in trade. There is weaker evidence that improvement in bilateral relationship, measured by positive reports in Reuters’ articles, is associated with more trade. As for capital flows, while long‐term capital flows, measured by foreign direct investment, appear to be unaffected by short‐term tensions, both a non‐democratic government and a history of war negatively affect FDI.

Predicting the severity of Spodoptera litura on groundnut in relation to climatic variability using ordinal logistic model

In this paper, an ordinal logistic regression model was developed for predicting the severity of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) on groundnut using the pest dynamics vis a vis climatic data of twenty five years (1990-2014) pertaining to Kharif (26 to 44 standard meteorological weeks (SMW)) season of Dharwad (Karnataka). Trend analysis of climatic data using Mann-Kendall nonparametric test showed that mean and minimum temperatures, and rainfall to be increasing while morning and evening relative humidity and their mean to be decreasing over time. The weekly male moth catches of S. litura (nos./trap/week) during maximum severity period (34 SMW) was modeled with climatic variables lagged by two weeks. The developed model indicated that the maximum temperature and morning relative humidity prior to two weeks contributed significantly to the occurrence of high level of pest attack. Results suggested that for each degree increase in maximum temperature during 32 SMW, the odds of being high pest attack (as opposed to lower or medium) increased by a multiple of 8.6 as compared to the odds of being high or medium (as opposed to low) increasing by 6.4 times for each per cent rise in the morning relative humidity.