Cent In Real Terms Research Articles

Is There a Future for Special Employment Measures in the 1990s?

Since unemployment began to rise again last year, the need for a response from government is once again being discussed. As the unemployment total rises toward 2 1/2 million and threatens to continue to rise next year, it will be repeatedly in the headlines for some time to come. One policy response to persistently high unemployment in the UK, and by governments around the world, has been the use of Special Employment Measures. It is therefore surprising that direct special measures in Britain are now at a seven year low and are facing further funding cuts of around 18 per cent in real terms during the next financial year. Here we take a look at recent developments in Special Measures in the UK, and assess the adequacy of current programmes to meet the needs of the 1990s.

The Uniform Business Rate: Some Economic Effects

Uses input‐output tables to quantify the effect of business rates on consumers′ expenditure, exports, investment and government consumption. Updates data from the 1979 tables to indicate that the burden of business rates on consumers′ expenditure is likely to have risen by around 30 per cent in real terms over the last decade. Concludes that the 1990 revaluation has increased the rates bills on the service sector and is likely to have made the uniform business rate less regressive.

The impact of multilateral and tied bilateral aid on the UK economy

AbstractIn line with their commitment to reduce public spending, the Conservative government under Thatcher cut the aid budget by some six per cent in real terms in their first five years in power, with the brunt of the cuts falling on bilateral aid. Business groups deplored this trend and argued that it be reversed because tied bilateral aid generated greater commercial benefits for the economy than multilateral aid, an argument which government ministers appeared to accept. We estimate and compare the impact of multilateral and tied bilateral aid on the UK economy in 1980 and 1985 using Input‐Output impact analysis. The results suggest, quite strongly, that multilateral aid generates greater benefits both in volume terms and per equivalent amount of aid expenditure. We conclude that the case for the increased use of tied bilateral aid is weaker than commonly supposed.

The Market Economies Of Southeast Asia In 1986

The weighted average growth in the ASEAN countries as a whole fell from 4.6 per cent in 1984 to 0.5 per cent in 1985. In the course of 1985, expectations were that growth would pick up in 1986 but this did not materialize, and the Nomura Research Institute estimates 1986 growth to be in the order of 0.6 per cent (report in the Business Times [Singapore], 19 December 1986). Commodity prices continued to fall and the failure of the indus trialized countries to show strong growth adversely affected the performance of the Southeast Asian market economies. Real output in the industrialized countries grew by only 2.7 per cent in 1986 as compared to 3.0 per cent in 1985. While ASEAN countries used to grow faster than the industrialized countries, only Thailand and Brunei recorded a higher rate of growth than the industrialized countries in 1986. However there are signs that this poor performance ? poor relative to earlier years ? can be reversed in 1987 with overall growth averaging a modest 2 per cent. The world economy is in a transition phase, adapting to major changes such as a large shift in the pattern of exchange rates, sharp reductions in interest rates and energy prices, and the planned strengthening in the U.S. fiscal position. For the industrial countries the key policy issue is how to sustain a satisfactory rate of demand growth while working toward the elimination of the financial imbalances between countries that have threatened the sustainability of expansion (International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, October 1986). The year 1986 saw the beginnings of profound changes to Asian economies brought about by the 22 September 1985 summit of Finance Ministers from the five major industrial nations. This summit agreed on concerted steps to weaken the dollar, particularly against the yen. The yen has since then strengthened by about 40 per cent against the dollar. Japan's exports have become more expensive and its overseas sales have dropped in yen terms, driving down the country's growth rate which in fact turned negative in real terms in the first quarter of 1986. Consequently the Asian nations that compete with Japan for export markets, particularly those which are linked to the dollar, are enjoying a boom such as South Korea, Taiwan and Hongkong. Cheap oil and low interest rates have added to the windfall. However only Thailand among the market Southeast Asian economies has shown growth, comparable to 1985, of about 4 per cent for 1986. Singapore is expected to grow by about 1.9 per cent in real terms for 1986, itself a significant reversal from the minus 1.8 per cent in 1985 while Malaysia is expected to grow by about 1.0 per cent, also an improvement over the minus 1.0 per cent growth of 1985. Brunei's expected growth for 1986 is estimated by the Nomura Research Institute to be 4 per cent. According to that same source, the Philippines is expected to decline by 0.1 per cent and Indonesia by 1.1 per cent in 1986, the Philippine figure a significant improvement over the 3.8 per cent decline in 1985. Of all the market Southeast Asian countries, Indonesia has worsened most in its 1986 economic position as it had a positive 1.3 per

Will industry support higher education?

Since 1980, government support for UK universities has dropped by over 11 per cent in real terms. Can new initiatives from industry soften the blow?

Wages Polic in Papua New Guinea

This article outlines the main developments in the area of wages policy in Papua New Guinea over the last ten years and describes some of the major influences on minimum wage determinations during this period. Between 1967 and 1970 wages changed little. Since that time while the minimum wage in the larger urban areas has increased by over 100 per cent in real terms the real minimum wage of those engaged in primary industry—the vast majority of rural wage earners, most of whom work on plantations—has increased much less. The rural-urban wage gap has thus widened markedly. At the same time differentials for skill have been considerably reduced.

Social Economics and Political Change in South Africa

Economic Trends and Composition In the more than three decades since the second world war, the South African economy has experienced rapid growth. In the years 1945–65, the average annual growth rate in real gross domestic product was 5·2 per cent. (During this sustained twenty‐year growth period, the country's population increased by an average of 2·3 per cent, which means that an annual increase in per capita product of 2·9 per cent was registered.) In the years 1966–72, economic growth was even more rapid, at an annual rate of around 6 per cent in real terms. In concert with many other countries, South Africa's economic performance has been weaker over the past five years (1973–77) with growth rates hovering about zero; excess capacity; inflation; and growing open unemploy‐ment (in addition to traditional and no doubt very substantial under‐employment, especially in the large semi‐subsistence sector).

Chapter V. World Economy

In the recent atmosphere of gloom over the state of the world economy it is interesting to find that our forecast of the growth of output in OECD countries in 1977 is virtually the same as it was a year ago (at 4–4 1/2 per cent in real terms), while growth in 1976 appears to have been above our expectations (5–52 per cent compared with 4 1/2 per cent). Moreover our forecasts last February were not at the time regarded as particularly pessimistic either in terms of the prospect which they held out or in relation to the expectations of other observers. OECD, for example, had predicted only 4 per cent (on unchanged policies).

Guinea and the Ivory Coast– Contrasts in Economic Development

Guinea and the Ivory Coast are neighbouring, former French colonies in West Africa. Both gained their independence about the same time – Guinea in 1958 and the Ivory Coast in 1960. The contrast in the subsequent economic performance of these two countries with closely corresponding resource endowments is remarkable. The Ivory Coast's gross domestic product has grown at an annual rate of about 8 per cent in real terms. The Guinean economy has stagnated. A review of the economic record of both since independence suggests that three factors were mainly responsible for their strikingly unequal performance: (1) differences in governmental philosophies of mobilisation and organisation of resources; (2) differences in the extent to which foreign markets shaped domestic economic expansion; and (3) differences in the role of foreign entrepreneurs in the national development effort.

Elasticities of Substitution for the Japanese Imports

Although lack of price data on beer for the past decade makes prediction impossible, we note that from 1962 to 1969 per adult beer consumption increasec1 by 16 per cent (USBA, 1970, p. 59) while real, per capita income rose by 27 per cent. Assuming stable real prices for beer, the implied income elasticity is 0.59. Average per capita income (1958 dollars) during 1962-1969 was approximately $2,250. At this level we estimate income elasticity as 0.37. Since average state taxes on beer increased about 7 per cent in real terms during 1962-1969 (USBA, 1970, p. 105), our estimate appears sufficiently close to warrant confidence in its reliability. Regarding implications for the future, it appears that the beer industry can anticipate moderate increases in consumption, assuming the price of beer remains relatively stable. Moreover, it further appears that excise taxes on beer could be reduced considerably with only modest losses in tax revenues. The desirability of such reductions might be questioned on noneconomic grounds; however, there appears little doubt that beer excise taxes are regressive. REFERENCES

Chapter II. The World Economy

Economic growth in the industrial countries fell short of our expectations during the summer, particularly in Japan and Italy and to a lesser extent in West Germany. Despite the resumption of growth in the United Kingdom and a firmly upward trend of production in North America, the aggregate output of the OECD countries increased only slowly and for the year as a whole the rise in their GNP may not reach 3½ per cent in real terms.

The defence cuts

DEFENCE is to take the brunt of the cuts that were detailed by the Prime Minister in his statement to the House of Commons on January 16 on public expenditure for the period 1968–69 and 1969–70. Since it took office in 1964, and after the announced cuts have come into effect, the Government will have increased its annual rate of civil expenditure by 43 per cent in real terms. At the same time, defence expenditure will have been cut by 17 per cent, also in real terms. In its defence policy the Government seems bemused with cost and untarnished by effectiveness.