Cent Deviations Research Articles

Oil price, trade openness, current account balances and the official exchange rate in Nigeria

AbstractSince a larger percentage of government revenue are generated from crude oil trade, the fluctuations in the price of oil have always been influencing the budget financing in Nigeria. Also, investment decisions and trade cost are been influenced by the status of the oil price. The study investigates the relationship between oil price, trade openness, current account balances and official exchange rate in Nigeria using secondary data from 1980 through 2016. The non‐linear auto‐regressive distributed lag (NARDL) was used to analyse the short‐run and long‐run link between the variables. From the findings, it was established that in the short run and long run, trade openness negatively impacts on the official exchange rate of naira to dollar in Nigeria. The consumer price index positively and significantly influences exchange rate value in Nigeria in the short run and long run. Positive changes in oil price impacted negatively on official exchange rate in the short run, but in the long run had a positive impact. Negative changes in the price of oil have a positive insignificant and negative significant impact on official exchange rate in the short run and long run, respectively. The error correction result verified that the variables (trade openness, current account, oil price and consumer price index) correct 91 per cent deviations of exchange rate from short‐run equilibrium back to equilibrium in the long run. The study concludes that trade policy in Nigeria is not in favourable direction of official exchange rate in Nigeria. Also, positive changes in oil price and current account balances are strong determinants of the Nigerian official exchange rate of naira to dollar in the long run. Therefore, it is recommended that trade policies should be reviewed in Nigeria towards enhancing other sectors that would add more value to naira.

Rounding-up in reported income numbers

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the rounding-up in reported income numbers of Indian companies by examining the evidence of unusual occurrence of zero and nine in reported income numbers such as profit after tax and earnings per share (EPS). It also examines such rounding-up patterns under different scenarios such as companies varying across different time periods, income size, market capitalization, industries, initial public offering and earnings news. Design/methodology/approach – All 1,707 companies listed on National Stock Exchange of India were considered for analysis. This study covered a period of 21 years from 1991-1992 to 2011-2012. Data were collected from PROWESS database. Findings – In Indian companies, the rounding-up pattern in reported income numbers is in conformity with existing studies (Carslaw, 1988; Thomas, 1989). In case of income numbers, the observed proportionate occurrence of zero and nine is significantly different from the expected proportionate occurrence. The study found that anomalies in reported earnings vary across industry. Further, it is found that the per cent deviations are more in case of companies having high income levels, high market capitalization and with positive news. Research limitations/implications – In future studies, it will be interesting to develop a model reflecting the causes for such rounding-up of income numbers. Practical implications – The paper provides an insight analysis on the rounding-up behavior of Indian companies and facilitates the understanding of occurrence of such anomalies under various scenarios. This paper may be useful to all the users of accounting information. Originality/value – First study on examining the rounding-up of reported income numbers and EPS by companies in India.

TESTING ACCRETION DISK STRUCTURE WITHSUZAKUDATA OF LMC X-3

The Suzaku observation of LMC X-3 gives the best data to date on the shape of the accretion disk spectrum. This is due to the combination of very low absorbing column density along this line of sight which allows the shape of the disk emisison to be constrained at low energies by the CCD's, while the tail can be simultaneously determined up to 30 keV by the high energy detectors. These data clearly demonstrate that the observed disk spectrum is broader than a simple 'sum of blackbodies', and relativistic smearing of the emission is strongly required. However, the intrinsic emission should be more complex than a (color-corrected) sum of blackbodies as it should also contain photo-electric absorption edges from the partially ionised disk photosphere. These are broadened by the relativistic smearing, but the models predict ~ 3-5 per cent deviations for 1/3- 1 solar abundance around the edge energies, significantly stronger than observed. This indicate that the models need to include more physical processes such as self-irradiation, bound-bound (line) absorption, and/or emission from recombination continuua and/or lines. Alternatively, if none of these match the data, it may instead require that the accretion disk density and/or emissivity profile with height is different to that assumed. Thus these data demonstrate the feasibility of observational tests of our fundamental understanding of the vertical structure of accretion disks.

The effect of gas physics on the halo mass function

Abstract Cosmological tests based on cluster counts require accurate calibration of the space density of massive haloes, but most calibrations to date have ignored complex gas physics associated with halo baryons. We explore the sensitivity of the halo mass function to baryon physics using two pairs of gas-dynamic simulations that are likely to bracket the true behaviour. Each pair consists of a baseline model involving only gravity and shock heating, and a refined physics model aimed at reproducing the observed scaling of the hot, intracluster gas phase. One pair consists of billion-particle resimulations of the original 500 h-1 Mpc Millennium Simulation of Springel et al., run with the smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) code gadget-2 and using a refined physics treatment approximated by pre-heating (PH) at high redshift. The other pair are high-resolution simulations from the adaptive-mesh refinement code art, for which the refined treatment includes cooling, star formation and supernova feedback (CSF). We find that, although the mass functions of the gravity-only (GO) treatments are consistent with the recent calibration of Tinker et al. (2008), both pairs of simulations with refined baryon physics show significant deviations. Relative to the GO case, the masses of ∼1014h-1 M⊙ haloes in the PH and CSF treatments are shifted by the averages of -15 ± 1 and +16 ± 2 per cent, respectively. These mass shifts cause ∼30 per cent deviations in number density relative to the Tinker function, significantly larger than the 5 per cent statistical uncertainty of that calibration.

Nucleate boiling heat transfer coefficients of halogenated refrigerants up to critical heat fluxes

In this work, nucleate pool boiling heat transfer coefficients (HTCs) of five refrigerants of differing vapour pressures are measured on a horizontal, smooth copper surface of 9.53×9.53 mm. The tested refrigerants are R123, R152a, R134a, R22, and R32 and HTCs are taken from 10 kW/m2 to the critical heat flux (CHF) of each refrigerant. Wall and fluid temperatures are measured directly by thermocouples located underneath the test surface and in the liquid pool, respectively. Test results show that nucleate pool boiling HTCs of halogenated refrigerants increase as the heat flux and vapour pressure increase. This typical trend is maintained even at high heat fluxes above 200 kW/m2. Zuber's prediction equation for CHF is quite accurate showing a maximum deviation of 21 per cent for all refrigerants tested. For all refrigerants, Stephan and Abdelsalam's well-known correlation underpredicted nucleate boiling HTC data up to the CHF with an average deviation of 21.3 per cent, while Cooper's correlation overpredicted the data with an average deviation of 14.2 per cent. On the other hand, Gorenflo's and Jung et al.'s correlations showed 5.8 and 6.4 per cent deviations, respectively, in the entire nucleate boiling range up to the CHF.

ENGLISH

This research is a report of the findings of a study of the information seeking behaviour of agricultural scientists working in the Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR) institutions of Delhi, and Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. A structured questionnaire was developed to explore the information seeking behaviour of agricultural scientists. Data collected were analysed using the latest version of MS-Excel for appropriate statistical procedures for description (frequencies, per cent, means, and standard deviations), etc. The paper discusses the findings of various strategies and procedures adopted by the agricultural scientists in meeting their information requirement. The agricultural scientists were asked torank the information sources indicating their order of priority while seeking information. They were askedto use a scale in order to their priority on the basis of I, II and III. The results show that agricultural scientists have expressed great dependence in meeting their information requirement on their institutional library/information centre. Seventy-two per cent of the respondents for all categories of agricultural scientists preferred their library/information centre as the most preferred source. For accessing information agricultural scientists highly depend on the library collection, followed by the personal collection, collection of their supervisor and of colleagues in order of decreasing priority.http://dx.doi.org/10.14429/djlit.28.3.175

Alters- und geschlechtsspezifische Mortalität im Ruhrgebiet von 1994 bis 2004

Results of an analysis of the mortality in the Ruhr region have shown increased mortality rates and a corresponding lower life expectancy, relative to the federal state of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) as a whole. For the years 2002-2004 the male life expectancy was 0.86 years below the NRW level, and for females 0.56 years under the NRW level. The analysis of the age- and sex-specific mortality rates be-tween the years 1994 and 2004 has demonstrated in which age groups mortality increased in the Ruhr region. The mortality rates for all 15 municipalities and counties of the Ruhr region have been analysed according to different areas: centre of population (Ballungskern), conurbation areas (Ballungsrandzone), Ruhr City (alias Ruhrgebiet/Ruhr-Region) and NRW without Ruhr City. Eleven average values and three-year mean values were calculated to reduce the range of the year-values. Per cent deviations of the NRW values demonstrate the size of the differences. Comparisons between the centres of population, conurbation areas with NRW without Ruhr City demonstrate an increased mortality especially in the male and female age groups of 40 to 54 years. A comparison of the municipalities with the highest life expectancy level, Bonn, with that with the lowest life expectancy level, Gelsenkirchen, for the years 2002-2004 shows a difference in the life expectancy of 2.7 years for females and 4.3 years for males. The male and female mortality rates of the age groups 40-59 years in Gelsenkirchen exceed the comparable rates in Bonn by 30% on average. In spite of increasing life expectancy in the Ruhr region from 1994 to 2004 the age-specific mortality rates of the 35-54-year-old population are increased, especially in the centres of population. The problem area is the centres of population with a complicated socio-demographic situation and worse indicators of the health status.

Testing tidal-torque theory - II. Alignment of inertia and shear and the characteristics of protohaloes

We investigate the cross-talk between the two key components of tidal-torque theory, the inertia (I) and shear (T) tensors, using a cosmological N-body simulation with thousands of well-resolved haloes. We find that the principal axes of I and T are strongly aligned, even though I characterizes the protohalo locally while T is determined by the large-scale structure. Thus, the resultant galactic spin, which plays a key role in galaxy formation, is only a residual due to ∼10 per cent deviations from the perfect alignment of T and I. The T–I correlation induces a weak tendency for the protohalo spin to be perpendicular to the major axes of T and I, but this correlation is erased by non-linear effects at late times, making the observed spins poor indicators of the initial shear field. However, the T–I correlation implies that the shear tensor can be used for identifying the positions and boundaries of protohaloes in cosmological initial conditions – a missing piece in galaxy formation theory. The typical configuration is of a prolate protohalo lying perpendicular to a large-scale high-density ridge, with the surrounding voids inducing compression along the major and intermediate inertia axes of the protohalo. This leads to a transient sub-halo filament along the large-scale ridge, whose subclumps then flow along the filament and merge into the final halo. The centres of protohaloes tend to lie in ∼1σ overdensity regions, but their association with linear density maxima smoothed on galactic scales is vague: only ∼40 per cent of the protohaloes contain peaks. Several other characteristics distinguish protohaloes from density peaks, e.g. they tend to compress along two principal axes while many peaks compress along three axes.

4. An analysis of the doses calculated and measured in-vivo during total body irradiation

Purpose The aim of this work was to estimate the error in dose calculations, to check the agreement between the measured and calculated doses and to analyse dose discrepancies in the group of thirty patients undergoing total body irradiation. Method A group of thirty consecutive patients, children aged from 5 to 12 years, was taken for dose comparison. A combination of lateral and anterior – posterior fields with electron boost was used in eight fractions and on four consecutive days. Cobalt unit was used as a source of radiation. Lung shields were used at two anterior-posterior fields. Compensators were attached at the neck, head and legs. Doses were preliminarily calculated and then measured in-vivo by thermoluminescent (TLD) and semiconductor (SEM) detectors attached to the body in ten representative transverse cross-sections. Calculations and measurements were carried out for the beam at the body entry and exit. The error in dose calculations was estimated for each dosimetrical point. A total dose of 12,6 Gy was prescribed in the body midline on the central beam axis (CAX). A dose of 8.2 Gy was delivered from six lateral fields and a dose of 4,4 Gy from two AP/PA fields. In the lungs dose was below 10 Gy. Lateral fields were set at a source to skin distance (SSD) of 305 cm with the dose rate to midline of 5,9 cGy/min and AP/PA fields were set at 210 cm with 11,5 cGy/min, respectively. A fractional dose specified on CAX and midline was 2.5 Gy during all anterior-posterior fields (from each side), 1.5 Gy (0.75 Gy from each side) during four lateral fields, and 1.1 Gy (0.55 Gy from each side) during two lateral fields. Results The error in the preliminary dose calculations was determined by a total differential method, taking into account of the accuracy of determining the following parameters: SSD, body thickness and contour, the thickness of compensators, lung shields, filter shape, lung dimensions and body density, where applicable. Calculations were done separately for each cross-section and for the beam entry and exit. The values of this error were rounded up to 3% for CAX, from 5% to 10% for head, neck, shoulders, abdomen, elbows, wrist, knee and feet and increased to 15% for lung at AP/PA fields. Per cent deviations for hole group of patients for lateral and AP/PA fields (on entry and exit) were below 10% (TLD and SEM detectors) with the exceptions for the neck at lateral and for the lungs at AP/PA fields where the errors exceeded 10%. Conclusions For the group of patients the per cent deviations exceeded 10% for the neck exit in lateral fields and for the lung exit in anterior – posterior fields. Standard deviations exceeded 10% at the neck and lung exits in lateral fields and at the lung exit in anterior – posterior fields.

Probability Model for Crop Yield Forecasting

AbstractMarkov chain approach has been adopted to forecast sugarcane yield. Two years data (1977–78 and 1978–79) on biometrical characters and yield collected by IASRI, New Delhi under the pilot study on pre‐harvest forecasting of sugarcane yield in Meerut district (U.P.) were utilised for the study. Yield forecasts at 7–8 months after planting (about 2–3 months before harvest) were very close to the observed ones, per cent deviations from observed being 4% in 1978–79 and 2% in 1977–78. This study thus reveals that Markov Chain method can be successfully used in crop yield forecasting.

Thermodynamics of Adsorption from Liquid Mixtures of Xylenes and p-Diethylbenzene on a Modified K—BaY Zeolite

Surface excess values for the adsorption of binary and ternary liquid mixtures, p-xylene/p-diethylbenzene, m-xylene/p-diethylbenzene, ethylbenzene/p-diethylbenzene, ethylbenzene/m-xylene and ethylbenzene/m-xylene/p-diethylbenzene on a modified K–BaY zeolite at 25°C are reported. Thermodynamic models for adsorption equilibrium have been applied to correlate the data. For data on binary systems, the characterized activity coefficients in the adsorbed phase and the adsorption equilibrium constant have been determined. Based on the method of Price and Danner, predictions of the adsorption equilibrium for the ternary systems have been carried out using parameters determined only from binary systems. For the ternary system ethylbenzene/m-xylene/p-diethylbenzene, the absolute average per cent deviations for the predicted values of the surface excess are 8.5% and 9.2% for ethylbenzene and m-xylene, respectively. Accordingly, the correlations obtained can be used to calculate the adsorption equilibrium for binary and ternary systems consisting of p-xylene, m-xylene, ethylbenzene and p-diethylbenzene on a modified K–BaY zeolite at 25°C.

Absorption effects on plane waves in layered media

AbstractWe present equations which can be used in conjunction with estimates of material properties to determine whether exact linear viscoelastic modeling will give significantly different results from elastic ray calculations. We apply the viscoelastic version of Snell's law to assess the effects of anelasticity on phase velocities, attenuation coefficients, transmission angles, and travel times for a plane wave propagating through a stack of plane viscoelastic layers described by the velocity and Q for a homogeneous wave in each layer.We include a survey of the viscoelastic theory of plane waves to provide a context for the results. Our analysis shows that the most general version of Snell's law leads to a complex two-dimensional vector ray parameter in which case plane P-wave motion does not decouple from horizontal transverse S-wave motion. We show that in a layered medium the fields generated by a symmetric point source, a vector point force, a double-couple point force, or a plane of tractions corresponding to a complex vector parameter, as well as other “reasonable” sources, can be calculated by integrating over real ray parameters, but in all of these cases, one must consider the coupling in laterally heterogeneous media.Differences from elastic ray behavior are found to be well correlated with the behavior of the parameter χ≡1+Q-2cos2γ where γ is the angle of inhomogeneity of the wave. We present equations for χ in terms of layer parameters and both the vector ray parameter and incident wave parameters. Examples presented to illustrate the method show significant (5 to 10 per cent) deviations from elastic travel times, and offsets in a given layer may be possible in very lossy layered materials.

A box model of alkali halide crystals

The model introduced in author's first paper [ Annls Acad. Sci. fenn. A 6, 110 (1962)] has been developed further, both theoretically and technically. It is based on the assumption that each ion is moving in its own, practically impenetrable sphere (or cube) in a constant coulombic potential. Then the eigenvalues of the Hamiltonian are easily found and the only experimental crystal parameter needed is the lattice constant d. Validity of the theory has been tested by comparing the computed values of the binding energy Ē, the molar heat C p , the coefficient of volume expansion α, and the adiabatic compressibility K s to the experimental ones; the mean (per cent) deviations are, respectively, 4·4 per cent, 5·1 per cent, 16·8 per cent and 34·3 per cent. The results are rather promising, so that this model seems to be worthy of further research.

SYMMETRY IN EQUISETUM

Bierhorst, David W. (Cornell U., Ithaca, N. Y.) Symmetry in Equisetum. Amer. Jour. Bot. 46(3) : 170‐179. Illus. 1959.—A total of 118 leaf whorls and corresponding nodes from a total of 9 species of Equisetum were studied in serial cross‐section. The number of whorls having the same leaf number as the 2 adjacent ones was 67. The size of the arc measured in degrees of circumference occupied by each leaf, as well as its position relative to leaves of adjacent whorls were measured. The disposition of the internodal and trans‐nodal vascular strands was determined for each of the nodes. The average per cent deviations from theoretical leaf size within whorls were: whorls not involved in change in leaf number, 3.9; those with fewer leaves than the one below, 9.5; those with more leaves than one above, 7.1; those with more leaves than one below, 9.4; those with different leaf number from the 2 adjacent ones, 12.5. In Equisetum, it is a general rule that (1) a leaf which falls directly above a leaf in the next whorl where the younger whorl possesses fewer leaves than the older one is usually the largest leaf within its whorl, (2) a leaf which falls directly below a leaf in the next younger whorl where the younger whorl possesses fewer leaves than the older one is usually the smallest leaf within its whorl, (3) a leaf which falls directly above a leaf in the next older whorl where the younger whorl possesses a greater number of leaves than the older one is usually the smallest leaf in its whorl, and (4) a leaf which falls directly below a leaf in the next younger whorl where the younger whorl possesses a greater number of leaves than the older one is usually the largest leaf within its whorl. The numerous variations in the disposition of vascular tissue associated with changes in leaf number are described. Double leaf traces which originate in various ways are common, as well as vertical strands traversing the nodes. The leaf trace system is considered to be determined by the number, position, and relative sizes of leaf primordia. The disposition of the trans‐nodal protoxylem seems to be determined to a large extent by the proximity of the leaf traces above and below the node.

Revision of Curve A, Speculation

CURVE A, speculation, now appears in the index of general business conditions, substantially as developed in the I923 revision.' The curve is obtained by averaging cycles for bank debits in New York City and for the DowJones average of industrial stock prices. It did not appear in I923 that any secular trend was present in these two constituents; and, although the accumulation of data since that time has rendered the presence of an upward secular trend in each series increasingly evident, it is only recently that we have become confident of the possibility of measuring even approximately such trends. In Curve A as it has been appearing, therefore, no correction for trend has been made; and, for each constituent, the actual items are expressed as per cent deviations from assumed horizontal lines. These deviations are then used in determining the cycle figures. In the case of the'New York bank debits an adjustment is necessary because of the presence of seasonal variation.2 The seasonal correction for the bank debits figures allows not only for annually recurrent fluctuations which are essentially seasonal in character, but also for the effect of extraordinary financial transactions which take place quarterly. It is believed that the present Curve A gives a substantially accurate record of the short-time fluctuations of the speculative type since the war. The fact, however, that this curve is not corrected for secular trend accounts for its extraordinary elevation during the last three years, and leaves room for a misunderstanding of the current position of the curve because of its apparent extreme departure from a supposed horizontal normal. It is therefore desirable to revise the curve by making due allowance for secular trend, so far as it is now possible to measure such trend. Moreover, it has now become apparent that Curve A can be improved by excluding from it the series for New York bank debits. Finally, it is desirable to replace the Dow-Jones average of industrial stock prices by new averages which rest upon a wider sampling of market transactions. It is the object of the present article to discuss these several changes by which the revised Curve A is substituted for that heretofore used in the index chart.