Census Record Research Articles

Selection Bias Encountered in the Systematic Linking of Historical Census Records

ABSTRACTLinked historical records typically are unrepresentative of the population from which they are drawn even if the method of linking is restricted to time-invariant matching criteria. An example drawn from Canadian census records illustrates the nature of bias that may afflict even a carefully linked sample. The use of potentially time-varying match criteria doubles the size of a linked sample at a modest cost in terms of additional bias. This trade-off is attractive for some research purposes if care is taken in the uses to which the data are put. Reweighting to mitigate the effects of bias in visible characteristics is desirable.

Attitude Towards Bangru Language of Arunachal Pradesh: The Natives’ Perspective

This paper investigates the language attitudes among Bangru in Arunachal Pradesh, an ethnically and linguistically diverse state in the north-eastern region of India. Bangru, an unclassified language cluster is spoken mainly in about 15 Bangru villages of Sarli circle in Kurung Kumey district, a northernmost frontier district bordering Tibet (China) in the north-east Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh. The total population of Bangru mother-tongue speakers is numbers about 1,023 (39.35%) out of approximately 2,600 persons in the Sarli circle Although there is no separate Census record on this community, however, according to the data gathered, the Bangru account for about 1.14% of the total population of Kurung Kumey district. A questionnaire was used to collect data on language preference, language parents prefer their children to learn, and reasons for language preference. Results suggest that while a positive attitude played a significant role in learning Hindi and English among some of the groups under investigation, it proved to be of no help in maintaining the ethnic language. Hindi and English were reported as very important for education, economic privileges and social interaction. Ethnic language, on the other hand, was preferred for purely symbolic reasons (symbolizing a group’s ethnic identity).

Ormianie kamienieccy w ostatniej ćwierci XVII wieku – próba rekonstrukcji spisu imiennego

Armenians in Kamieniec Podolski in the Last Quarter of the 17th Century − An Attempt to Reconstruct the Census Records 
 By examining the manuscript sources created by Armenian community in Kamieniec Podolski (Kamianets-Podilskyi), Jazłowiec (Yazlovets), Lwów (Lviv) and Stanisławów (now: Ivano-Frankivsk), the author reconstructs the names and surnames of Armenians who lived in Kamieniec Podolski before the Turkish invasion of 1672 and those who resided there immediately after 1700.

A Census Record as a Source in Livy?

Abstract The speech of Spurius Ligustinus in Livy (42.34.2-15) presents a full account of the life and career of a Middle Republican centurion, sometimes dismissed as patriotic invention, but alternatively used as evidence for the social, economic and military history of the second century BCE. This article argues that the information for Ligustinus’s life and career was culled from archived census records, a theory that best explains the biographical details that would not turn up if Livy or his annalistic source simply wanted to generate a conventional rhetorical account of military accomplishment.

Implications of socio-demographic change in place of death in Scotland 2001-2011: an analysis of linked census and death registration data

Background with rationaleCare in the final stages of life care constitutes a marked component of all health and social care expenditure. Whether people die at home or in an institutional setting is influenced by a range of social and demographic factors. Understanding the implications of socio-demographic trends for people die can contribute to planning services.
 Main AimTo describe changes in place of death 2001-2011 and to ascertain the extent to which these might be explained by social or demographic trends.
 Methods/ApproachData from the Care in the Last Days of Life Study was drawn on. This dataset linked census to death registration and hospital admissions data for all deaths occurring in the 12 months following the 2001 and 2011 censuses. Deaths in these two time periods were compared and contrasted using logistic regression.
 Results and DiscussionExcluding deaths for which no census record could be linked, a total of 56,766 people died in the year following the 2001 census and 53,517 following in the same period after the 2011 census. A slight decline was apparent in the period proportion of deaths in hospital (52.3% of all deaths in 2011-12 against 56.9% in 2001-02) with a concomitant increase in deaths in care homes and hospices. Deaths at home were virtually unchanged. Age at death increased markedly with 31.4% occurring to people aged 85+ years in the latter compared to 26.6% in the earlier period. Further analysis to be presented will explore the extent to which these changes can be explained by an ageing population, shifting causes of death, changes in hospital discharge policies, or social composition of the Scottish population between these two timepoints. Implications of findings for policy will be considered.

Effect of Protein Supplementation on Physical Performance in Older People With Sarcopenia–A Randomized Controlled Trial

ObjectivesTo test the long-term effects of whey-enriched protein supplementation on muscle and physical performance. DesignA 12-month randomized controlled double blind trial with a 43-month of post-trial follow-up. SettingPorvoo, Finland. ParticipantsA total of 218 older (>74 years of age) community-dwelling people with sarcopenia. Intervention(1) Control with no supplementation; (2) isocaloric placebo; and (3) 20 g × 2 whey-enriched protein supplementation. All participants were given instructions on home-based exercise, dietary protein, and vitamin D supplementation of 20 μg/d. MeasurementsPhysical performance was assessed by short physical performance battery and continuous summary physical performance scores. Hand grip strength and calf intracellular resistance based skeletal muscle index were measured by bioimpedance spectroscopy. The measurements were performed at 0, 6, and 12 months. The post-trial follow-up was performed by a postal questionnaire and national census record data. ResultsThe participants were older (75-96 years of age) and mostly women (68%). The test supplements had no significant effects on physical performance; the 12-month changes for short physical performance battery were −0.55, −.05, and 0.03 points in control, isocaloric, and protein groups (P = .17), respectively. The changes in continuous summary physical performance scores were similar between the intervention groups (P = .76). The hand grip strength decreased significantly in all intervention groups, and the 12-month changes in calf intracellular resistance-based skeletal muscle index were minor and there were no differences between the intervention groups. One-half of the patients (56%) in both supplement groups reported mild gastrointestinal adverse effects. Differences were found neither in the all-cause mortality nor physical functioning in the post-trial follow-up. ConclusionsThe whey-enriched protein supplementation in combination with low intensity home-based physical exercise did not attenuate the deterioration of muscle and physical performance in community-dwelling older people with sarcopenia.

Estimation of Origin-Destination Flows of Passenger Cars in 1925 in Old Tokyo City, Japan

In recent years, surveys of personal travel behavior have been conducted around the world and these surveys have been used for understanding the characteristics of people flow. However, it is impossible to acquire people and traffic flows for the modern era (1868–1945). In modern era Japan, some traffic surveys were conducted, and that records still persist. The purpose of this study was to estimate origin-destination (OD) flows in old Tokyo in 1925 based on the historical traffic census record. In this study, OD flows were estimated using an absorbing Markov chain model, which is a simple model based on traffic generation and transition probabilities. Transition probabilities in unobserved nodes were estimated using genetic algorithms (GA). The result of OD distributions is clearly different in the eastern part of Tokyo City, the Shitamachi area, from the western part, the Yamanote area. The traffic was very busy in Shitamachi, an area which included terminal stations and a central business district. In Yamanote, major traffic generation and absorption points were distributed along the main streets to the Shinjuku or Shibuya areas. These results are affected by the distribution of main roads and the locations of residences or workplaces of car owners.

Developing a Locally Adaptive Spatial Multilevel Logistic Model to Analyze Ecological Effects on Health Using Individual Census Records

Geographical variable distributions often exhibit both macroscale geographic smoothness and microscale discontinuities or local step changes. Nonetheless, accounting for both effects in a unified statistical model is challenging, especially when the data under study involve a multiscale structure and non-Gaussian response variables. This study develops a locally adaptive spatial multilevel logistic model to examine binomial response variables that integrates an innovative locally adaptive spatial econometric model with a multilevel model. It takes into account global spatial autocorrelation, local step changes, and vertical dependence effects arising from the multiscale data structure. Another appealing feature is that the spatial correlation structure, implied by a spatial weights matrix, is learned along with other model parameters via an iterative estimation algorithm, rather than being presumed to be invariant. Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers are derived to implement this new spatial multilevel logistic model. A data augmentation approach, drawing on recently devised Pólya-gamma distributions, is adopted to reduce computational burdens of calculating binomial likelihoods with a logit link function. The validity of the developed model is evaluated by a set of simulation experiments, before being applied to analyze self-rated health for the elderly in Shijiazhuang, the capital city of Hebei Province, China. Model estimation results highlight a nuanced geography of self-rated health and identify a range of individual- and area-level correlates of health for the elderly. Key Words: geography of health, local spatial modeling, multilevel models, spatial autocorrelation, spatial econometrics.

Nationality and citizenship in the Commonwealth census record

ABSTRACTIn the nineteenth century, censuses were instituted throughout the British Empire, obtaining an inventory of the characteristics and skills of the population. They generally included a question on nationality. During the twentieth century, a common British nationality gave way to individual national state citizenships. Some attempts were made to maintain a Commonwealth link, but by the twenty-first century any sense of an overarching Commonwealth identity had been lost. Furthermore, even in the remaining overseas territories and dependencies local residency status replaced a common British citizenship. The introduction of a national identity question further indicated the decline in identification as ‘British’.

Burden of Malaria in three Endemic Districts of Bhutan: Road to Malaria Elimination

Introduction: Bhutan is considered as a low endemic country for malaria. In the last decade, Bhutan has successfully reduced the number of malaria cases with the support from Global Fund and WHO. Sarpang, Samtse and Samdrup Jongkhar districts located in the Southern foothills of Bhutan records the most cases. Method: This retrospective study was undertaken with the available census record maintained in health centers of the three endemic districts and VDCP. Results: There were 892 confirmed malaria cases in 2009 and 41 cases in 2017 in three endemic districts. The slide positivity rate (SPR) declined from 2.2% in 2009 to 0.1% in 2017. The distribution of disease was significantly higher (p<0.05) amongst the male population with the increasing trend of Plasmodium vivax infection. The study found predominance of P. vivax in Samtse (93%), and Sarpang (62%) and Plasmodium falciparum in Samdrup Jongkhar (61%). The last four years (2014-2017) data showed that maximum cases detected were imported, followed by indigenous and introduced malaria; with 50%, 44% and 6%, respectively. The mortality and morbidity due to malaria has magnificently declined in the last decade. Conclusion: The large-scale implementation of vector control interventions, such as insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, free health care service and active vector surveillance has achieved a marked reduction in malaria incidence. Cross border malaria is still a huge challenge for elimination of malaria in Bhutan. Thus, imported malaria is an increasing problem due to high receptivity, and vulnerability.

“The varieties and unsettled habits of this new land”

This article argues that Mary O’Brien’s journals highlight her family’s strategy to achieve economic and social security by establishing long-term goals, identifying an advantageous and socially superior position amongst neighbours, and making everyday choices which furthered these goals and advantages. Her account of her life in Upper Canada demonstrates the hidden workings of an agrarian household in a way that is much more personal than a census or tax record. The use of primary sources such as Mary’s journals enables location specific generalizations to be made while examining a larger historical experience. This article is, therefore, concerned with placing the experiences of a farm wife within the context of settlement, class, and labour in the first half of the nineteenth-century.

Historical Census Record Linkage.

For the past 80 years, social scientists have been linking historical censuses across time to study economic and geographic mobility. In recent decades, the quantity of historical census record linkage has exploded, owing largely to the advent of new machine-readable data created by genealogical organizations. Investigators are examining economic and geographic mobility across multiple generations, but also engaging many new topics. Several analysts are exploring the effects of early-life socioeconomic conditions, environmental exposures, or natural disasters on family, health and economic outcomes in later life. Other studies exploit natural experiments to gauge the impact of policy interventions such as social welfare programs and educational reforms. The new data sources have led to a proliferation of record linkage methodology, and some widespread approaches inadvertently introduce errors that can lead to false inferences. A new generation of large-scale shared data infrastructure now in preparation will ameliorate weaknesses of current linkage methods.

The Census Records and the Wade Street Community in the 19th Century

The Census Records and the Wade Street Community in the 19th Century

Decisions of Scrapping the Subsidies in Kerosene Supply in India: How Will It Affect the Poor?

This research aims at exploring the impact of scrapping kerosene subsidy on the welfare of the poor. In India, still 31 % of households use kerosene fuel as an alternative source of energy to illuminate their house, especially in rural India. Kerosene along with the other social security goods has been disbursed at a highly subsidised rate for a long time. Off late, a new policy vows at scrapping such subsidies as a strategy to reform and restructure the energy sector. Keeping these things in consideration, the study views scrapping policy as having an adverse impact on people. The present study employs the latest census record (2011) on household energy consumption—source of lighting—for the analysis. The results bring to light a wide divide at various spatial levels of evaluation with regard to usage of kerosene and electricity for lighting purposes within the household. Apart from the gap at rural, urban, national, state and district level, the districts of the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states which are traditionally lagging behind in all the development indicators form a cluster of the major consumers of subsidised kerosene. The study also reveals that the below poverty line (BPL) population in these states has inflated at a rapid scale which could get affected with the new policy. Although kerosene, as a source of energy, is not green, it needs to be subsidised till there is a universal access to electricity.

Chronic Illness and Developmental Vulnerability at School Entry.

This study examined the association between chronic illness and school readiness, by using linked administrative population data. The sample included children born in 2003-2004 who were residing in Western Australia in 2009 and had a complete Australian Early Development Census record (N = 22 890). Health and demographic information was also analyzed for 19 227 mothers and 19 030 fathers. The impact of child chronic illness on 5 developmental domains (social, emotional, language, cognitive, and physical) at school entry was analyzed. Analyses examined the association between child developmental outcomes and chronic illness generally, single or multiple chronic illness diagnosis, and diagnosis type. Logistic regression models estimated odds ratios for each outcome, adjusted for child, parent, and community sociodemographic variables. In the adjusted models, children with a chronic illness had an increased risk of being classified as developmentally vulnerable on all domains, compared with children without a chronic illness (20%-35% increase in risk). There was no increased risk for children with multiple chronic illness diagnoses over those with a single diagnosis (all Ps > .05). There was no evidence of a disease-specific effect driving this risk. Regardless of the number or type of conditions, chronic illness in young children is a risk factor for reduced school readiness. These effects were seen for health conditions not traditionally considered detrimental to school readiness, such as chronic otitis media. Thus, the implications of a broader range of chronic health conditions in early childhood on school readiness need to be considered.

A Tale of Two Armies: The Confederate Army of Northern Virginia and the Union Army of the Potomac and Their Cultures

Every organization or institution develops a culture, and armies are no different. The culture of an army is important because it determines and influences proper and improper conduct individually and collectively. It imposes standards and expectations that affect how persons and groups react to crises, how they behave on the campaigns and in camp, and how they fight, among other things. (1) The culture that emerged in the Army of Northern Virginia was distinct from that of the Army of the Potomac. What dictated the development of that culture was the background of the soldiers; the training and regimentation that their officers imposed, particularly early in the war; and their formative experiences in combat and on the march. Once that culture took hold, it was extremely hard to break or alter, and it shaped the course and outcome of the war. To understand the formulation and impact of those cultures on the war, I am going to utilize quantitative as well as qualitative data. Half a century ago, a shift toward the influences of social science on the discipline of history and the development of the computer sparked historians to dabble in a sophisticated use of statistics. Within two decades, however, the field was largely dismissed. Many historians were completely intimidated by numbers and refused to embrace them, while others found quantitative studies either tedious reading or insensitive to the hardships and brutality of the past. (2) Over the past couple of decades, many social scientists have recognized the limitations of pure numbers and have added qualitative evidence, the kind most historians use, to their studies. Historians, too, have begun to embrace digital history, which the American Historical Association defines as that is either produced using computational tools and methods or presented using digital technologies. (3) Most of that work has relied on computers and software to present scholarship with digital technologies, particularly the exploration of geospatial relationships, which provide powerful insights into networks, neighborhoods, and pathways of communications. Yet historians have lagged in the first part of the definition, scholarship that is produced using computational tools and methods. (4) This study seeks to employ statistics along with some choice traditional historical evidence to compare two of the principal armies of the Civil War, the Union Army of the Potomac and the Confederate Army of Northern Virginia, and the cultures that developed. (5) It will not focus on the generals or the politicians; rather, it will revolve around the background and experiences of the officers and enlisted men of both armies, who are to my mind the most intriguing subjects to investigate. As one man in the Army of Northern Virginia wrote home, Common soldiers by name, however, are often times very uncommon--like common sense. (6) These statistics will give us insights into the prewar lives of the soldiers and help answer questions such as why they served, what kind of culture developed in each army, and how that culture affected Union victory and Confederate defeat. The evidence for this talk comes from more traditional sources, published and unpublished official reports and communications, letters, diaries, and even memoirs. But the critical source--the statistics--comes from two stratified cluster samples, one on the Army of Northern Virginia and the other on the Army of the Potomac. The sample for the Army of Northern Virginia consists of 600 soldiers selected randomly: 150 artillerymen, 150 cavalrymen, and 300 infantrymen. Sample units in the Army of Northern Virginia represented all Confederate states plus Maryland and Kentucky. Data from individual soldiers was weighted based on his branch and the branch's percentage within the army. Information for the sample came from Compiled Service Records, Census Records, pension files, obituaries, family histories, and other sources, much of it now available on the internet. …

The Catholic Community of Yekaterinburg between the Late 19th and Early 20th Centuries according to the 1897 Census and Church Records

This article studies the Catholic community of Yekaterinburg, its size, ethnic composition, religious life, and demography. The analysis is based on the aggregates of the first all-Russian census of 1897 and nominative data from the church books of St Anna’s Church. For this purpose, the authors transcribed the 1897 census’ tables electronically and analyzed the size, age and gender composition, social status, occupations and education of the Yekaterinburg Catholics. In addition, they divided entries from the St Anna’s Church parish books into three data tables: baptisms, marriages, and burials. The data were processed to analyze the intensity of the community’s religious life and find its main demographic characteristics. Despite the fact that they were a religious minority representing less than one percent of the city’s residents, the research shows that the Yekaterinburg Catholics in many respects constituted a wealthy, and well-established ethno-confessional community, integrated in the city’s religious landscape. Their number was relatively stable over the fifteen prewar years and the community’s high quality and continuity made it distinct from the Catholic communities in Siberia.

Childbearing postponement and child well-being: a complex and varied relationship?

Over the past several decades, U.S. fertility has followed a trend toward the postponement of motherhood. The socioeconomic causes and consequences of this trend have been the focus of attention in the demographic literature. Given the socioeconomic advantages of those who postpone having children, some authors have argued that the disadvantage experienced by certain groups would be reduced if they postponed their births. The weathering hypothesis literature, by integrating a biosocial perspective, complicates this argument and posits that the costs and benefits of postponement may vary systematically across population subgroups. In particular, the literature on the weathering hypothesis argues that, as a consequence of their unique experiences of racism and disadvantage, African American women may experience a more rapid deterioration of their health which could offset or eventually reverse any socioeconomic benefit of postponement. But because very few African American women postpone motherhood, efforts to find compelling evidence to support the arguments of this perspective rely on a strategy of comparison that is problematic because a potentially selected group of older black mothers are used to represent the costs of postponement. This might explain why the weathering hypothesis has played a rather limited role in the way demographers conceptualize postponement and its consequences for well-being. In order to explore the potential utility of this perspective, we turn our attention to the UK context. Because first-birth fertility schedules are similar for black and white women, we can observe (rather than assume) whether the meaning and consequences of postponement vary across these population subgroups. The results, obtained using linked UK census and birth record data, reveal evidence consistent with the weathering hypothesis in the United Kingdom and lend support to the arguments that the demographic literature would benefit from integrating insights from this biosocial perspective.

Contemporary and Historical Evidence to Suggest that Women’s Preference for Age at Birth of First Child Remains Consistent Across Time

Women's ability to reproduce is restricted by menarche and menopause. First children are, however, not typically born until some years after the onset of puberty. Other factors therefore contribute towards this delay. In this context, women's hips do not reach full adult form until they are in their mid-20s. Therefore, physiological and morphological factors appear to determine an optimum age-range for reproduction. The following studies were conducted in order to investigate this hypothesis. Study 1 asked nulliparous women questions about ages at which particular life events related to reproduction should ideally occur. This revealed their preferred age at birth of first child to be approximately 27 years old. Study 2 replicated these findings and further showed that women with children actually had their first child at a very similar age (27.93 [±0.79]). Findings from Study 3 were also remarkably consistent (28.15 [±0.39]). Study 4 examined the 1901 U.K. Census record and incorporated an analysis of the influence of wealth. Middle class women were on average 24.88 (±0.22) years old at the birth of their first child. Poor women were on average 23.50 (±0.20) years old. These figures at least approximate to findings from Studies 1-3, which is noteworthy given that modern contraceptive methods were not widely available at the time. It is concluded that female strategies to delay giving birth to their first child until they are of an age that approaches or coincides with their full hip maturation are enduring across time.

Antarctic Site Inventory breeding bird survey data, 1994–2013

AbstractThis data set represents the accumulation of 19 years of seabird population abundance data collected by the Antarctic Site Inventory, an opportunistic vessel‐based monitoring program surveying the Antarctic Peninsula and associated sub‐Antarctic Islands. This Data Paper, which includes 1124 records from 113 locations for seven species of seabirds (Adélie Penguin [Pygoscelis adeliae], Gentoo Penguin [P. papua], Chinstrap Penguin [P. antarctica], Macaroni Penguin [Eudyptes chrysolophus], Blue‐eyed Shag [Phalacrocorax atriceps], Kelp Gull [Larus dominicanus], and Southern Giant Petrel [Macronectes giganteus]), includes data already published by the Antarctic Site Inventory as well as seven years of recent data not previously published. Census data represent a mix of nest and chick counts; each census record includes the location, date, and precision of the census count, along with any auxiliary notes. Included with the database are maps to clarify the location of specific breeding populations that may be new (and thus not previously reported) or ambiguous. This compilation represents the best single source of raw data on the spatiotemporal dynamics of the Pygoscelis penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula region and provides population data on several flying bird species less frequently studied.