Cause Of Years Lived With Disability Research Articles

Global burden and cross-country inequalities in stroke and subtypes attributable to diet from 1990 to 2019

Data sourcesThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2019.BackgroundTo describe burden, and to explore cross-country inequalities according to socio-demographic index (SDI) for stroke and subtypes attributable to diet.MethodsDeath and years lived with disability (YLDs) data and corresponding estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were estimated by year, age, gender, location and SDI. Pearson correlation analysis was performed to evaluate the connections between age-standardized rates (ASRs) of death, YLDs, their EAPCs and SDI. We used ARIMA model to predict the trend. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative concentration index (RCI) were utilized to quantify the distributive inequalities in the burden of stroke.ResultsA total of 1.74 million deaths (56.17% male) and 5.52 million YLDs (55.27% female) attributable to diet were included in the analysis in 2019.Between 1990 and 2019, the number of global stroke deaths and YLDs related to poor diet increased by 25.96% and 74.76% while ASRs for death and YLDs decreased by 42.29% and 11.34% respectively. The disease burden generally increased with age. The trends varied among stroke subtypes, with ischemic stroke (IS) being the primary cause of YLDs and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) being the leading cause of death. Mortality is inversely proportional to SDI (R = -0.45, p < 0.001). In terms of YLDs, countries with different SDIs exhibited no significant difference (p = 0.15), but the SII changed from 38.35 in 1990 to 45.18 in 2019 and the RCI showed 18.27 in 1990 and 24.98 in 2019 for stroke. The highest ASRs for death and YLDs appeared in Mongolia and Vanuatu while the lowest of them appeared in Israel and Belize, respectively. High sodium diets, high red meat consumption, and low fruit diets were the top three contributors to stroke YLDs in 2019.DiscussionThe burden of diet-related stroke and subtypes varied significantly concerning year, age, gender, location and SDI. Countries with higher SDIs exhibited a disproportionately greater burden of stroke and its subtypes in terms of YLDs, and these disparities were found to intensify over time. To reduce disease burden, it is critical to enforce improved dietary practices, with a special emphasis on mortality drop in lower SDI countries and incidence decline in higher SDI countries.

Evaluation of three decades of the burden of low back pain in China before COVID-19: Estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2019.

Low back pain (LBP) is reported as an urgent public-health concern globally because it occurs in all age groups and is now the leading cause of disability, with health systems unable to cope with this burden. We present China's burden of LBP by estimating its prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2019. We obtained the data relating to LBP from the Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019. Then we calculated years lived with disability caused by LBP by multiplying the prevalence of LBP sequelae by their corresponding disability weights. We performed an analysis of the age-, sex-, and province-specific prevalence and YLDs of 33 provinces/regions in China, as well as their relationship with the sociodemographic index (SDI). China has the largest numbers of people with LBP (91.3 million) and YLDs (8.6 million) globally, and LBP is the leading cause of YLDs. The age-standardised prevalence was 7.25% in 1990, and this decreased to 5.13% in 2019. The age-standardised YLD rate was 579/100 000 in 2019, having decreased by 28.97%. Both measurements increased with age, being higher in women and varying across the 33 provinces/regions. For the 5-to-14-year age group, the prevalence (4.50%) and YLD rate (4.51%) increased in 2019 from 1990 (3.21% and 3.21%, respectively) when compared to the elderly group. Age-standardised YLD rates experienced decreases with increasing SDI, while there was an increasing tendency as SDI increased further; the changes for women were more obvious. Over the three decades considered, China has continued to have the largest number of people with LBP in the world, even though the age-standardised prevalence has decreased. YLDs were found to decrease as SDI increased, but they subsequently increased again. LBP still presents a burden, particularly for children and postmenopausal women.

The health state of France before COVID-19 pandemic between 1990 and 2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

France faces nowadays some major challenges regarding its health care system including medically underserved areas, social health inequalities, and hospital pressures. Various indicators and sources of data allow us to describe the health status of a population and, consequently, to assess the impact of these challenges. We assessed the burden of diseases before COVID-19 in France in 2019 and its evolution from 1990 to 2019, and compared it with Western European countries. We used specific Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) metrics: socio-demographic index (SDI), life expectancy (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) with their 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI). We compared French age-standardized metrics to those for other Western European Countries for both sexes and also between 1990 and 2019. We also described the specific causes of these different metrics. We observed for life expectancy at birth in France a trend to an improvement over time from 77.2 (95% UI: 77.2-77.3) years in 1990 to 82.9 (82.7-83.1) in 2019, which represented the seventh highest life expectancy among 23 Western European countries. HALE at birth in France increased from 67.0 (64.0-69.7) to 71.5 (68.1-74.5), which represented the fourth highest HALE among 23 Western European countries. In France, the total number of DALY per 100.000 population tended to decrease from 25,192 (22,374-28,351) in 1990 to 18,782 (16,408-21,920) in 2019. As compared to other European countries, the burden due to cardiovascular diseases was lower. Neoplasms and cardio-vascular diseases were the two leading causes of YLLs. Mental and musculoskeletal disorders were the two leading causes of YLDs. Overall, these results highlight a clear trend of improvement in the health status in France with certain differences between western European countries. The health policy makers need to devise interventional strategies to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries, with specific attention to causes such as cancers, cardiovascular diseases, mental health and musculoskeletal disorders. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of diseases and risk factors in Bangladesh, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Bangladesh has made substantial progress in improving socioeconomic and health indicators over the past 50 years, but data on national disease burden are scarce. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to estimate the burden of diseases and risk factors in Bangladesh from 1990 to 2019. For this systematic analysis, we analysed data from vital registration systems, surveys, and censuses using multistage modelling processes to estimate life expectancy at birth, mortality rate, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Additionally, we compared the health status of Bangladesh with that of the other countries in the GBD south Asia region-Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan. Life expectancy at birth in Bangladesh increased from 58·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 57·1-59·2) in 1990 to 74·6 years (72·4-76·7) in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 1509·3 (1428·6-1592·1) to 714·4 (604·9-838·2) deaths per 100 000 population. In 2019, non-communicable diseases represented 14 of the top 20 causes of death; the leading three causes were stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. High blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking were the top three risk factors. From 1990 to 2019, the rate of all-cause DALYs decreased by 54·9% (48·8-60·4). In 2019, the leading causes of DALYs and YLLs were neonatal disorders, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease, whereas musculoskeletal disorders, depressive disorders, and low back pain were the leading causes of YLDs. Bangladesh has the lowest age-standardised rates of mortality, YLDs, and YLLs and the highest life expectancy at birth in south Asia. Over the past 30 years, mortality rates have reduced by more than half in Bangladesh. Bangladesh must now address the double burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases. Cost-effective, multisectoral efforts are needed to prevent and control non-communicable diseases, promote healthy lifestyles, and prevent premature mortality and disabilities. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. For the Bangla translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021-30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535-656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8-8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3-134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4-89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9-67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7-105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1-135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7-557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6-10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3-510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8-6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0-9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI -1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health.

Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990-2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554-694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759-933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578-1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9-10·0) and 10·5% (11·1-10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7-47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of osteoarthritis in India and its states, 1990–2019: findings from the Global Burden of disease study 2019

To describe the burden of osteoarthritis (OA) in India from 1990 to 2019. Data from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 were used. The burden of OA -knee OA, hip OA, hand OA, and other OA- was estimated for India and its states from 1990 to 2019 through a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) using methods reported in GBD 2019 study. Around 23.46 million individuals in India had OA in 1990; this increased to 62.35 million in 2019. The age-standardised prevalence of OA increased from 4,895 (95% uncertainty interval (UI):4,420-5,447) in 1990-5313 (95%UI:4,799-5,898) in 2019, per 100,000 persons. Similarly, DALYs due to OA increased from 0.79 million (95%UI:0.40-1.55) to 2.12 million (95%UI:1.07-4.23); while age-standardised DALYs increased from 164 (95%UI:83-325) to 180 (95%UI:91-361) per 100,000 persons from 1990 to 2019. OA was the 20th most common cause of YLDs in India in 2019, accounting for 1.48% (95%UI:0.88-2.78) of all YLDs; increasing from 23rd most common cause in 1990 (1.25%(95%UI:0.74-2.34)). Knee OA was the most common form of OA, followed by hand OA. The prevalence, incidence, and DALYs for OA and knee OA were consistently higher in females than males. The burden and impact of OA in India are substantial and is increasing. Adopting suitable control and preventive community measures to reduce modifiable risk factors (obesity, injuries, occupational stress) are needed to reduce the current and future burden of OA in India.

Disability burden due to musculoskeletal conditions and low back pain in Australia: findings from GBD 2019

BackgroundTo report the national prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs) and attributable risk factors for all musculoskeletal conditions and separately for low back pain (LBP), as well as compare the disability burden related to musculoskeletal with other health conditions in Australia in 2019.MethodsGlobal Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study meta-data on all musculoskeletal conditions and LBP specifically were accessed and aggregated. Counts and age-standardised rates, for both sexes and across all ages, for prevalence, YLDs and attributable risk factors are reported.ResultsIn 2019, musculoskeletal conditions were estimated to be the leading cause of YLDs in Australia (20.1%). There were 7,219,894.5 (95% UI: 6,847,113–7,616,567) prevalent cases of musculoskeletal conditions and 685,363 (95% UI: 487,722–921,471) YLDs due to musculoskeletal conditions. There were 2,676,192 (95% UI: 2,339,327–3,061,066) prevalent cases of LBP and 298,624 (95% UI: 209,364–402,395) YLDs due to LBP. LBP was attributed to 44% of YLDs due to musculoskeletal conditions. In 2019, 22.3% and 39.8% of YLDs due to musculoskeletal conditions and LBP, respectively, were attributed to modifiable GBD risk factors.ConclusionsThe ongoing high burden due to musculoskeletal conditions impacts Australians across the life course, and in particular females and older Australians. Strategies for integrative and organisational interventions in the Australian healthcare system should support high-value care and address key modifiable risk factors for disability such as smoking, occupational ergonomic factors and obesity.

Global, regional and national burden of low back pain 1990-2019: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019.

BackgroundTo comprehensively analyze the global level and trends of prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for low back pain (LBP) from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI).MethodsPublicly available modelled data and methods were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study 2019, and used to evaluate the global burden of LBP through a systematic analysis.ResultsGlobally, the age-standardized prevalence, incidence and YLDs rate of LBP were slightly decreased from 1990 to 2019, but the number of the prevalent cases, incident cases and YLDs had substantially increased, and LBP remains the leading cause of YLDs in 2019 worldwide. The number of prevalent cases was increased with age and peaked at the age of 45–54 years for both sexes, and the global prevalence rate was higher in females than in males and increased with age, peaking at the 80–84 age group in both sexes in 2019. Overall, a positive association between the age-standardized YLD rate and SDI was observed over the past thirty years. At the national revel, the United States, Denmark and Switzerland had the three highest levels of age-standardized prevalence, while Zambia, Zimbabwe and Canada showed the highest increase in the age-standardized prevalence during 1990–2019.ConclusionsLBP is a major public health issue globally, and its burden remains high. Increasing population awareness about its risk factors and preventive measures for LBP are needed to reduce the future burden of this condition.The translational potential of this articleDue to the high prevalence and heavy burden of LBP globally, it is important to update its epidemiological data. This systematic analysis provides researchers and healthcare policy makers with up-to-date, comprehensive and comparable information on global LBP burden, which is of clinical translational significance.

Neck pain is the leading cause of disability burden in China: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BackgroundNeck pain (NP) is a common musculoskeletal problem; however, the prevalence and years lived with disability (YLD) of NP in China are still unclear. This study sought to estimate the age-, sex- and province-specific prevalence and YLD of NP in China.MethodsAdopting the methodology framework and analytical strategies used in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (2017), the prevalence and YLD of NP in China were estimated by age, sex, year, and provinces/regions.ResultsIn China, the age-standardized point prevalence rate of NP was 4,532.6 per 100,000 persons in 1990 and increased slightly to 4,634.4 per 100,000 persons in 2017. The prevalence of NP was 48.0 million in 1990 and rose dramatically to 87.3 million in 2017 (an increase of 82.0%). The age-standardized YLD rate of NP was 454.0 per 100,000 persons in 1990, and there was a slight increase to 465.6 per 100,000 persons in 2017. The all-age YLD of NP was 4.8 million in 1990 and rose to 8.8 million in 2017 (which represents an increase of 81.1%). In 1990, NP was the third leading cause of YLD in China, and in 2017, NP was the leading cause of disability burden.ConclusionsThis study estimated the prevalence and disability burden of NP in China. NP is currently the leading cause of disability burden in China; however, it is currently inadequately recognized and should receive further attention and be subject to further research.

Register-based metrics of years lived with disability associated with mental and substance use disorders: a register-based cohort study in Denmark

Mental disorders account for a substantial proportion of the years lived with disability (YLDs) globally. These estimates have generally been calculated top down based on summary statistics. The aim for this study was to calculate YLDs and a novel related measure, Health Loss Proportion (HeLP), for 18 mental and substance use disorders, based on person-level register data (bottom up). A cohort of 6 989 627 Danish residents (5·9% had a diagnosis of a mental or substance use disorder registered in the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register) was investigated. YLDs (the duration of disease multiplied by a disability weight) were calculated for the disorder of interest and for comorbid mental and substance use disorders. HeLPs were estimated as YLDs associated with an index disorder and comorbid mental and substance use disorders divided by person-years at risk in persons with the index disorder. All analyses were adjusted for mental and substance use comorbidity using a multiplicative model of disability weights. Major depressive disorder was the most prevalent disorder, although schizophrenia was the leading cause of YLDs in both sexes combined (YLDs 273·3 [95 % CI 232·3-313·6] per 100 000 person-years). People diagnosed with schizophrenia lost the equivalent of 73% (63-83%) of healthy life per year due to mental and substance use disorders, the largest HeLP of all mental and substance use disorders. Comorbidity of mental and substance use disorders accounted for 69-83% of HeLPs in people with either cannabis use disorders, other drug use disorder and ADHD. By contrast, comorbidity explained 11-23% of the HeLPs in people with autism spectrum disorders, conduct disorder, and schizophrenia. Substantial variation in disability was observed across age, sex, and disorders. The new HeLP metric provides novel details of the contribution of comorbidity to the disability associated with mental and substance use disorders. The Danish National Research Foundation, Queensland Government Department of Health, European Union's Horizon 2020, Lundbeck Foundation, Stanley Medical Research Institute. For the Danish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Chronic pain: It is time to act….

Chronic pain: It is time to act….

Three Decades on the Burden of Low Back Pain in China, 1990-2019: Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Low back pain (LBP) is an urgent public health concern with huge population base in China since 1990. We aimed to present the China’s burden of LBP through estimating prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Data were obtained from systematic reviews of LBP in the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. A Bayesian meta-regression tool was applied to estimate the prevalence of LBP. YLDs were calculated by multiplying the prevalence of LBP sequelae by their corresponding disability weights (DWs). China’s rank of LBP in the globe was determined, with the uncertainty intervals (UIs). Then analysis on the age-sex-province-specific prevalence and YLDs of 33 provinces/regions in China as well as their relationship with socio-demographic index (SDI) was performed. Findings: Over the three decades, China has had the lowest age-standardized prevalence and YLDs globally while still with the largest number of LBP (91·3 million) and YLDs (8·6 million), ranking as the leading cause of YLDs since 1990. The age-standardized prevalence was 7·25% (95% UI: 6·39-8·17%) in 1990 and decreased to 5·13% (95% UI: 4·55-5·79%) in 2019. The age-standardized YLDs rate was 579/100,000 (95% UI: 411-778) in 2019 with a decrease by 28·97% (95% UI: 26·95-30·82%). Both indicators increased with age, higher in females and varying across 33 provinces/regions for thirty years. The proportion of LBP prevalence and YLDs increased in population <50y since 1990 and both indicators correlated with SDI in 1990 and 2019 (P=0·002 and P=0·014, P=0·002 and P=0·014, respectively). Interpretation: Over the past three decades, China has the lowest age-standardized prevalence and YLDs while with the largest prevalent number. The prevalence and YLDs slightly decreased and was strongly correlated with developing level. There was still vast burden on LBP, particularly for children and postmenopausal women. Funding Statement: This research was supported by the China National Key Research and Development Program (grant number 2016YFC0105606). Declaration of Interests: We declare no competing interests.

The burden of low back pain in Brazil: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

BackgroundThe prevalence and burden of musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions are growing around the world, and low back pain (LBP) is the most significant of the five defined MSK disorders in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. LBP has been the leading cause of non-fatal health loss for the last three decades. The objective of this study is to describe the current status and trends of the burden due to LBP in Brazil based on information drawn from the GBD 2017 study.MethodsWe estimated prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for LBP by Brazilian federative units, sex, age group, and age-standardized between 1990 and 2017 and conducted a decomposition analysis of changes in age- and sex-specific YLD rates attributable to total population growth and population ageing for the purpose of understanding the drivers of changes in LBP YLDs rates in Brazil. Furthermore, we analyzed the changes in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rankings for this disease over the period.ResultsThe results show high prevalence and burden of LBP in Brazil. LBP prevalence increased 26.83% (95% UI 23.08 to 30.41) from 1990 to 2017. This MSK condition represents the most important cause of YLDs in Brazil, where the increase in burden is mainly related to increase in population size and ageing. The LBP age-standardized YLDs rate are similar among Brazilian federative units. LBP ranks in the top three causes of DALYs in Brazil, even though it does not contribute to mortality.ConclusionsFindings from this study show LBP to be the most important cause of YLDs and the 3rd leading cause of DALYs in Brazil. The Brazilian population is ageing, and the country has been experiencing a rapid epidemiological transition, which generates an increasing number of people who need chronic care. In this scenario, more attention should be paid to the burden of non-fatal health conditions.

Depressive disorders in Brazil: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BackgroundDepression is one of the major causes of disability worldwide. The objective of this study was to analyze the results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD-2017) for depressive disorders in Brazil and its Federated Units (FUs) in 1990 and 2017.MethodsWe used GBD-2017 study methodology to evaluate the prevalence estimates, the disability-adjusted life-year (DALY), and the years lived with disability (YLDs) for depressive disorders, which include major depressive disorder and dysthymia. The YLD estimates and the position of these disorders in the DALY and YLD rankings were compared to those of seven other countries. The observed versus expected YLD, based on the sociodemographic index (SDI), were compared.ResultsIn GBD-2017, the prevalence of depressive disorders in Brazil was 3.30% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 3.08 to 3.57), ranging from 3.79% (3.53 to 4.09) in Santa Catarina to 2.78% in Pará (2.56 to 3.03), with significant differences between the Federated Units. From 1990 to 2017, there was an increase in number of YLD (55.19%, 49.57 to 60.73), but a decrease in the age-standardized rates (− 9.01%, − 11.66 to − 6.31). The highest proportion of YLD was observed in the age range of 15–64 years and among females. These disorders rank 4th and 13th as leading causes of YLD and DALY, respectively, in Brazil. In the other countries evaluated, the ranking of these disorders in the YLD classification was close to Brazil’s, while in the DALY classification, there was higher variability. All countries had YLD rates similar to the overall rate. The observed/expected YLD ratio ranged from 0.81 in Pará to 1.16 in Santa Catarina. Morbidity of depressive disorders was not associated with SDI.ConclusionsDepressive disorders have been responsible for a high disability burden since 1990, especially in adult women living in the Southern region of the country. The number of people affected by these disorders in the country tends to increase, requiring more investment in mental health aimed at advancements and quality of services. The epidemiological studies of these disorders throughout the national territory can contribute to this planning and to making the Brazilian health system more equitable.

Changes in disease burden in Poland between 1990-2017 in comparison with other Central European countries: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BackgroundSystematic collection of mortality/morbidity data over time is crucial for monitoring trends in population health, developing health policies, assessing the impact of health programs. In Poland, a comprehensive analysis describing trends in disease burden for major conditions has never been published. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides data on the burden of over 300 diseases in 195 countries since 1990. We used the GBD database to undertake an assessment of disease burden in Poland, evaluate changes in population health between 1990–2017, and compare Poland with other Central European (CE) countries.MethodsThe results of GBD 2017 for 1990 and 2017 for Poland and CE were used to assess rates and trends in years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Data came from cause-of-death registration systems, population health surveys, disease registries, hospitalization databases, and the scientific literature. Analytical approaches have been used to adjust for missing data, errors in cause-of-death certification, and differences in data collection methodology. Main estimation strategies were ensemble modelling for mortality and Bayesian meta-regression for disability.ResultsBetween 1990–2017, age-standardized YLL rates for all causes declined in Poland by 46.0% (95% UI: 43.7–48.2), YLD rates declined by 4.0% (4.2–4.9), DALY rates by 31.7% (29.2–34.4). For both YLLs and YLDs, greater relative declines were observed for females. There was a large decrease in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disease DALYs (48.2%; 46.3–50.4). DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) decreased slightly (2.0%; 0.1–4.6). In 2017, Poland performed better than CE as a whole (ranked fourth for YLLs, sixth for YLDs, and fifth for DALYs) and achieved greater reductions in YLLs and DALYs than most CE countries. In 2017 and 1990, the leading cause of YLLs and DALYs in Poland and CE was ischaemic heart disease (IHD), and the leading cause of YLDs was low back pain. In 2017, the top 20 causes of YLLs and YLDs in Poland and CE were the same, although in different order. In Poland, age-standardized DALYs from neonatal causes, other cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, and road injuries declined substantially between 1990–2017, while alcohol use disorders and chronic liver diseases increased. The highest observed-to-expected ratios were seen for alcohol use disorders for YLLs, neonatal sepsis for YLDs, and falls for DALYs (3.21, 2.65, and 2.03, respectively).ConclusionsThere was relatively little geographical variation in premature death and disability in CE in 2017, although some between-country differences existed. Health in Poland has been improving since 1990; in 2017 Poland outperformed CE as a whole for YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. While the health gap between Poland and Western Europe has diminished, it remains substantial. The shift to NCDs and chronic disability, together with marked between-gender health inequalities, poses a challenge for the Polish health-care system. IHD is still the leading cause of disease burden in Poland, but DALYs from IHD are declining. To further reduce disease burden, an integrated response focused on NCDs and population groups with disproportionally high burden is needed.

Global low back pain prevalence and years lived with disability from 1990 to 2017: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BackgroundLow back pain (LBP) is a common musculoskeletal problem globally. Updating the prevalence and burden of LBP is important for researchers and policy makers. This paper presents, compares and contextualizes the global prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of LBP by age, sex and region, from 1990 to 2017.MethodsData were extracted from the GBD (the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study) 2017 Study. Age, sex and region-specific analyses were conducted to estimate the global prevalence and YLDs of LBP, with the uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsThe age-standardized point prevalence of LBP was 8.20% (95% UI: 7.31–9.10%) in 1990 and decreased slightly to 7.50% (95% UI: 6.75–8.27%) in 2017. The prevalent numbers of people with LBP at any one point in time in 1990 was 377.5 million, and this increased to 577.0 million in 2017. Age-standardized prevalence of LBP was higher in females than males. LBP prevalence increased with age, and peaked around the ages of 80 to 89 years, and then decreased slightly. Global YLDs were 42.5 million (95% UI: 30.2 million–57.2 million) in 1990 and increased by 52.7% to 64.9 million (95% UI: 46.5 million–87.4 million) in 2017. YLDs were also higher in females than males and increased initially with age; they peaked at 35–39 years of age in 1990, before decreasing, whereas in 2017, they peaked at 45–49 years of age, before decreasing. Western Europe had the highest number of LBP YLDs.ConclusionsGlobally, LBP is the leading global cause of YLDs. Greater attention is urgently needed to mitigate this increasing burden and the impact it is having on health and social systems.

Burden of osteoarthritis in China, 1990-2017: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

China has seen a remarkable epidemiological and demographic transition during the past three decades. We aimed to describe the prevalence of osteoarthritis as well as years lived with disability (YLDs) due to osteoarthritis in China, according to age, sex, and geographical location, from 1990 to 2017. Data were obtained from systematic reviews of symptomatic osteoarthritis of the knee and hip in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017). Three categories of sequelae (mild, moderate, and severe) of osteoarthritis were defined to indicate the degrees of severity and functional loss associated with the condition. A Bayesian meta-regression tool was applied to estimate the prevalence of osteoarthritis and the distribution of its severity. YLDs were calculated by multiplying the prevalence of osteoarthritis sequelae by their corresponding disability weights. All data were analysed by age-sex-province-year groups in China. Around 26·1 million individuals in China had osteoarthritis in 1990, and this number rose to 61·2 million in 2017. The age-standardised prevalence of osteoarthritis increased from 2·9% (95% uncertainty interval 2·5-3·3) in 1990 to 3·1% (2·7-3·4) in 2017. The total YLDs due to osteoarthritis increased from 0·84 million (0·42-1·69) in 1990 to 1·97 million (0·98-3·94) in 2017, while the age-standardised YLD rate increased from 92·5 (45·7-185·6) per 100 000 people to 98·8 (49·4-197·6) per 100 000. Osteoarthritis prevalence and YLDs were higher in females than in males, and YLD rate increased with age. Osteoarthritis was the 24th most common cause of YLDs in China in 2017, accounting for 1·08% (0·64-2·02) of all YLDs. Osteoarthritis is prevalent in China. Between 1990 and 2017, disease burden increased and varied greatly according to geographical location. Appropriate prevention and treatment strategies, predominantly those targeted at women, older people, and underdeveloped areas, must be developed to reduce the burden of the disease. National Natural Science Foundation of China, China National Key Research and Development Programme.

Mortality, morbidity, and risk factors in China and its provinces, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

SummaryBackgroundPublic health is a priority for the Chinese Government. Evidence-based decision making for health at the province level in China, which is home to a fifth of the global population, is of paramount importance. This analysis uses data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to help inform decision making and monitor progress on health at the province level.MethodsWe used the methods in GBD 2017 to analyse health patterns in the 34 province-level administrative units in China from 1990 to 2017. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), summary exposure values (SEVs), and attributable risk. We compared the observed results with expected values estimated based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).FindingsStroke and ischaemic heart disease were the leading causes of death and DALYs at the national level in China in 2017. Age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population decreased by 33·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 29·8 to 37·4) for stroke and increased by 4·6% (–3·3 to 10·7) for ischaemic heart disease from 1990 to 2017. Age-standardised stroke, ischaemic heart disease, lung cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and liver cancer were the five leading causes of YLLs in 2017. Musculoskeletal disorders, mental health disorders, and sense organ diseases were the three leading causes of YLDs in 2017, and high systolic blood pressure, smoking, high-sodium diet, and ambient particulate matter pollution were among the leading four risk factors contributing to deaths and DALYs. All provinces had higher than expected DALYs per 100 000 population for liver cancer, with the observed to expected ratio ranging from 2·04 to 6·88. The all-cause age-standardised DALYs per 100 000 population were lower than expected in all provinces in 2017, and among the top 20 level 3 causes were lower than expected for ischaemic heart disease, Alzheimer's disease, headache disorder, and low back pain. The largest percentage change at the national level in age-standardised SEVs among the top ten leading risk factors was in high body-mass index (185%, 95% UI 113·1 to 247·7]), followed by ambient particulate matter pollution (88·5%, 66·4 to 116·4).InterpretationChina has made substantial progress in reducing the burden of many diseases and disabilities. Strategies targeting chronic diseases, particularly in the elderly, should be prioritised in the expanding Chinese health-care system.FundingChina National Key Research and Development Program and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of headache disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2016: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2016

ObjectivesUsing the findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), we report the burden of primary headache disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2016.MethodsWe modelled headache disorders using DisMod-MR 2.1 Bayesian meta-regression tool to ensure consistency between prevalence, incidence, and remission. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence and disability weight (DW) of migraine and tension-type headache (TTH). We assumed primary headache disorders as non-fatal, so their YLD is equal to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).ResultsMigraine and TTH were the second and twentieth leading causes of YLDs in EMR. Between 1990 and 2016, the absolute YLD numbers of migraine and TTH increased from 2.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.5–3.2) to 4.7 million (95%UI: 3–6.5) and from 383 thousand (95%UI: 240–562) to 816 thousand (95%UI: 516–1221), respectively. During the same period, age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH in EMR increased by 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively, in comparison to a small decrease in the global rates (0.2% decrease in migraine and TTH). The bulk of burden due to headache occurred in the 30–49 year age group, with a peak at ages 35–44 years. The age-standardised YLD rates of both headache disorders were higher in women with female to male ratio of 1.69 for migraine and 1.38 for TTH. All countries of the EMR except for Somalia and Djibouti had higher age-standardised YLD rates for migraine and TTH in compare to the global rates. Libya and Saudi Arabia had the highest increase in age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH, respectively.ConclusionThe findings of this study show that primary headache disorders are a major and a growing cause of disability in EMR. Since 1990, burden of primary headache disorders has constantly been higher in EMR compared to rest of the world, which indicates that health systems in EMR must focus further on developing and implementing preventive and management strategies to control headache.