TPS 751: Farms, antibiotics, infections, Exhibition Hall, Ground floor, August 26, 2019, 3:00 PM - 4:30 PM Background/Aim: campylobacter species have emerged as leading bacterial causes of gastroenteritis and foodborne infections in developed countries. The incidence-rate in Israel, one of the highest world-wide, increased from 31:100,000 to 91 during 1999–2010. We aimed to explore the effect of spatio-ecological factors (e.g. socio-economic-status (ses)) and time-spatial factors (e.g. ambient temperature) on the infection incidence in Israel; and to pinpoint areas with increased risks. Methods: data on 35,542 incident cases was provided by the reference laboratories of the Israeli ministry of health for the period 1999-2010. Case characteristics included isolate date, species identification (c. jejuni or c. coli), age and street-address that was geo-coded into spatial areas. The spatio-temporal study unit was region (1,824 units)* season (48 seasons). we calculated the standardized incidence ratio, adjusted for age-group and nationality, for each study unit and applied bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal models to estimate relative risk (rr) and 95%ci for the ecological determinants (ses, temperature, population-density and altitude) and for mapping disease risk. Results: we found significant effects of ses, altitude, population-density and temperature on campylobacter infection risk. For ses, rr was 1.107 (95%ci=1.062-1.153, standardized values -3 to +3), for altitude rr was 1.14 (95%ci=1.11-1.15 for 100 meters), for population-density rr was 0.881 (95%ci=0.860- 0.904, log), and for temperature rr was 1.025 (95%ci=1.013-1.038, for 10c). Across seasons, the higher risk was found in the spring (RR=1.150, 95%ci=1.061, 1.241, compared to winter). Among the six Israeli districts, the highest risk was found in the southern district showing increased risk in many regions throughout the year. In Haifa district (northern-israel), unlike other districts, there were a few regions with very high risks and the rest without an increased risk. Conclusions: campylobacter infection in Israel is multifactorial and associated with environmental factors. The finding of a spatio-temporal ambient-temperature effect should be considered in climate-change adaptation strategies.
Read full abstract