Causal Hypotheses Research Articles

Mapping potential pathways from polygenic liability through brain structure to psychological problems across the transition to adolescence.

We used a polygenic score for externalizing behavior (extPGS) and structural MRI to examine potential pathways from genetic liability to conduct problems via the brain across the adolescent transition. Three annual assessments of child conduct problems, attention-deficit/hyperactivity problems, and internalizing problems were conducted across across 9-13 years of age among 4,475 children of European ancestry in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive DevelopmentSM Study (ABCD Study®). The extPGS predicted conduct problems in each wave (R2 = 2.0%-2.9%). Bifactor models revealed that the extPRS predicted variance specific to conduct problems (R2 = 1.7%-2.1%), but also variance that conduct problems shared with other measured problems (R2 = .8%-1.4%). Longitudinally, extPGS predicted levels of specific conduct problems (R2 = 2.0%), but not their slope of change across age. The extPGS was associated with total gray matter volume (TGMV; R2 = .4%) and lower TGMV predicted both specific conduct problems (R2 = 1.7%-2.1%) and the variance common to all problems in each wave (R2 = 1.6%-3.1%). A modest proportion of the polygenic liability specific to conduct problems in each wave was statistically mediated by TGMV. Across the adolescent transition, the extPGS predicted both variance specific to conduct problems and variance shared by all measured problems. The extPGS also was associated with TGMV, which robustly predicted conduct problems. Statistical mediation analyses suggested the hypothesis that polygenic variation influences individual differences in brain development that are related to the likelihood of conduct problems during the adolescent transition, justifying new research to test this causal hypothesis.

The late-Quaternary megafauna extinctions: Patterns, causes, ecological consequences and implications for ecosystem management in the Anthropocene

Abstract Across the last ~50,000 years (the late Quaternary) terrestrial vertebrate faunas have experienced severe losses of large species (megafauna), with most extinctions occurring in the Late Pleistocene and Early to Middle Holocene. Debate on the causes has been ongoing for over 200 years, intensifying from the 1960s onward. Here, we outline criteria that any causal hypothesis needs to account for. Importantly, this extinction event is unique relative to other Cenozoic (the last 66 million years) extinctions in its strong size bias. For example, only 11 out of 57 species of megaherbivores (body mass ≥1,000 kg) survived to the present. In addition to mammalian megafauna, certain other groups also experienced substantial extinctions, mainly large non-mammalian vertebrates and smaller but megafauna-associated taxa. Further, extinction severity and dates varied among continents, but severely affected all biomes, from the Arctic to the tropics. We synthesise the evidence for and against climatic or modern human (Homo sapiens) causation, the only existing tenable hypotheses. Our review shows that there is little support for any major influence of climate, neither in global extinction patterns nor in fine-scale spatiotemporal and mechanistic evidence. Conversely, there is strong and increasing support for human pressures as the key driver of these extinctions, with emerging evidence for an initial onset linked to pre-sapiens hominins prior to the Late Pleistocene. Subsequently, we synthesize the evidence for ecosystem consequences of megafauna extinctions and discuss the implications for conservation and restoration. A broad range of evidence indicates that the megafauna extinctions have elicited profound changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. The late-Quaternary megafauna extinctions thereby represent an early, large-scale human-driven environmental transformation, constituting a progenitor of the Anthropocene, where humans are now a major player in planetary functioning. Finally, we conclude that megafauna restoration via trophic rewilding can be expected to have positive effects on biodiversity across varied Anthropocene settings.

Causal associations of gut microbiota and pulmonary tuberculosis: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

The prevalence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) as an infectious disease continues to contribute significantly to global mortality. According to recent studies, the gut microbiota of PTB patients and healthy controls (HCs) show significant disparities. However, the causal relationship between them has yet to be elucidated. We conducted a study using Mendelian Randomization (MR) to explore the potential causal link between gut microbiota and pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB). The summary statistics of the gut microbiota were acquired from the MiBioGen consortium, while data on PTB were sourced from pheweb.jp. A range of statistical methodologies were employed to evaluate causality, encompassing inverse variance weighting (IVW), MR-Egger, weighted median (WM), weighted model, and simple model. We utilized instrumental variables (IVs) that have a direct causal relationship with PTB to annotate SNPs, aiming to discover the genes harboring these genetic variants and uncover potential associations between host genes and the microbiome in patients with PTB. Among the 196 bacterial traits in the gut microbiome, we have identified a total of three microbiomes that exhibit a significant association with PTB. The occurrence of Dorea (P = 0.0458, FDR-adjusted P = 0.0458) and Parasutterella (P = 0.0056, FDR-adjusted P = 0.0168) was linked to an elevated risk of PTB, while the presence of Lachnoclostridium (P = 0.0347, FDR-adjusted P = 0.0520) demonstrated a protective effect against PTB. Our reverse Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization (TSMR) analysis did not yield any evidence supporting the hypothesis of reverse causality from PTB to alterations in the intestinal flora. We have established a connection between the gut microbiota and PTB through gene prediction analysis, supporting the use of gut microecological therapy in managing PTB and paving the way for further understanding of how gut microbiota contributes to PTB's development.

The Empirical Analysis of the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis on the South Korea and Europe Carbon Market

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on carbon credit prices in South Korea and Europe, aiming to analyze the implications for the South Korea and Europe carbon markets. The empirical analysis was based on the data of the Korean carbon credit and European carbon markets, which accounts for more than 80% of the global carbon credit market. The study is based on the daily Korean Allowance Unit (KAU) data from January 2015, when the Emissions Trading System (ETS) was first implemented, to December 2022, when the restrictions eased. For Europe, this study employed the European Union allowance (EUA) market data for the same period, using the EUA futures data, which expires in December every year and exhibit considerably higher liquidity than the EUA spot price. The results indicated that no significant Granger causality between the Volatility Index (VIX), EUA, and KAU during 2015 to 2019, before COVID-19 was identified. However, for 2020 to 2022 (the COVID-19 outbreak period), the null hypothesis of no Granger causality between the VIX and EUA at the 5% confidence level was rejected. These findings suggests that the economic crises and the consequent changes in the demand and supply of carbon emissions can affect the carbon credit price.

What Are the Main Causes of Positive Subtropical Low Cloud Feedbacks in Climate Models?

AbstractWe investigate positive subtropical low cloud feedback mechanisms in climate models which have performed the CMIP6/CFMIP‐3 AMIP and AMIP uniform +4K experiments while saving CFMIP‐3 process diagnostics on model levels. Our analysis focuses on the trade cumulus/stratocumulus transition region between California and Hawaii, where positive low cloud feedbacks are present in the JJA season. We introduce a methodology to test various positive cloud feedback mechanisms proposed in the literature as the main causes of the low cloud responses in the models. Causal hypotheses are tested by comparing their predictions with the models' responses of clouds, cloud controlling factors, boundary layer depth and temperature/humidity tendencies to climate warming. Changes in boundary layer depth, relative humidity in the cloud layer, convective moistening rate and large‐scale humidity advection at the top of the boundary layer are shown to be crucial for identifying the main causes of the low cloud reductions in the models. For the cases examined, our approach narrows down the seven mechanisms considered to between one and three remaining candidates for each model. No single mechanism considered can explain the feedback in all of the models at the locations examined, but the surface latent heat flux/convective entrainment mechanism remains a candidate for BCC‐CSM2‐MR, IPSL‐CM6A‐LR, and MRI‐ESM2.0, while the surface upwelling longwave mechanism remains for CESM2, HadGEM3‐GC3.1‐LL, and MIROC6.

WITHIN TWIN PAIR DIFFERENCES INDICATE GENETIC EFFECTS OF SES INDICATORS ON LONGITUDINAL CHANGES IN PHYSICAL AGING

Abstract Socioeconomic status (SES) predicts change in health status over age, even after accounting for measured confounders such as environmental and biological risk factors. Nonetheless, the source of SES-health associations continues to be heavily debated. Twin studies offer a method for testing causal hypotheses by incorporating within and between twin pair differences in longitudinal latent growth curve models (LGCM) of physical aging on both level of functioning and rate of change with age. Three longitudinal twin studies of aging from the Swedish Twin Registry (N = 2059) included up to 27 years of follow-up on a Functional Aging Index (FAI) consisting of lung function, grip strength, walking speed, and self-report sensory functioning. SES indicators included education, financial strain, and occupation. Pair means (between family effect) and within pair differences (within family effect) were included as covariates of both intercept and slopes in a two-slope LGCM (intercept at age 75); models were corrected for sex and parental SES. LGCM results were compared across full sample, monozygotic twins, and dizygotic twins. For the FAI intercept, MZ within pair effects in all SES variables were strongly attenuated, indicating genetic confounding. For slope 1, only MZ within pair effect for education was attenuated, and no SES indicators were related to rate of change in FAI after age 75. Thus, results suggest shared genetic factors explain the association between education and change in physical aging in early aging processes. In other words, genes that impact educational achievement may also influence health behaviors and physical aging.

Requirement for an Effective Treatment of Neurodegenerative Diseases

For degenerative diseases, a major causal hypothesis is chronic cell stress, which damages cell proteins. To maintain cellular homeostasis, damaged proteins must be replaced via nuclear protein synthesis, ER folding, and Golgi transport. If protein damage exceeds the cell’s replacement capacity, protein misfolding occurs, which, if unchecked, forms cytotoxic aggregates of misfolded polymorphic structures (CAMPS) that attach to membranes, disrupt their function, and degrade homeostasis.

The relationship of school performance with self-control and grit is strongly genetic and weakly causal

The non-cognitive skills self-control and grit are often considered predictors of school performance, but whether this relationship is causal remains unclear. We investigated the causality of this association using a twin design. Specifically, we evaluated the direct impact of self-control and grit on school performance, while controlling for genetic or environmental influences common to all three traits (i.e., confounding). Teachers of 4891 Dutch 12-year-old twin pairs (of which 3837 were complete pairs) completed a survey about school performance (school grades), self-control (ASEBA self-control scale), and the perseverance aspect of grit. Our analysis aimed to determine the direct impact of self-control and grit on school performance, while simultaneously controlling for genetic or environmental confounding. Establishing the regression relationship corrected for confounding supports the interpretation of the regression relationship as causal. In all analyses, we corrected for sex, rater bias of the teachers, and parental socioeconomic status. Initially, in the standard regression, self-control, and grit explained 28.4% of the school performance variance. However, allowing for genetic confounding (due to genetic pleiotropy) revealed that most of this association could be attributed to genetic influences that the three traits share. In the presence of genetic pleiotropy, the phenotypic regression of school performance on self-control and grit accounted for only 4.4% (i.e., the effect size association with the causal hypothesis). In conclusion, self-control and grit predict school performance primarily due to genetic pleiotropy, with a much smaller causal effect (R2 = 4.4%). This suggests that interventions targeting self-control and grit alone may yield limited improvements in school performance.

The design of causal thinking in the practical activities of ideological and political education in colleges and universities

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to analyze and research the practical activities of ideological and political education in colleges and universities using causal thinking design. Firstly, it studies the meaning and characteristics of ideological and political education and proposes a causal hypothesis. Secondly, the structural causal model is used to complete the basic structure of the causal thinking model, and the structural causal model is optimized using the HSIC Lasso method. Then, based on the Bayesian generative causal directional algorithm, the functional causal model is constructed, and the model is optimized. Based on the model, the Interaction Network Method for Civic Education Practice in Colleges and Universities is framed. Finally, based on the SCM algorithm, the learning effect of Civics in colleges and universities is analyzed. The Y → X and X → Y causal inference accuracy of the SCM algorithm is 100% and 90%, respectively. More than 70% of the students think that causal thinking exercises help to improve the learning effect of the Civics course.

How to Evaluate Causal Dominance Hypotheses in Lagged Effects Models

The (Random Intercept) Cross-Lagged Panel Model ((RI-)CLPM) is increasingly used in psychology and related fields to assess the longitudinal relationship of two or more variables on each other. Researchers are interested in the question which of the lagged effects is causally dominant receives considerable attention. However, currently used methods do not allow for the evaluation of causal dominance hypotheses. This paper will show the performance of the Generalized Order-Restricted Information Criterion Approximation (GORICA), an extension of Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC), in the context of causal dominance hypotheses using a simulation study. The GORICA proves to be an adequate method to evaluate causal dominance in lagged effects models.

Work Commitment as Mediation of the Relationship Between Competency and Work Motivation on Employee Performance in Asttatindo (Indonesian Expert and Skilled Engineering Association)

Objective: The research objective was to analyze the influence of Employee competency s significantly on work commitment and employee performance the influence of work Competence on Work Commitment and Employee Performance, the influence of Work commitment on Employee Performance, and the role of work commitment as a variable mediating the relationship between competence and work motivation and employee performance.Methodology: This type of research uses survey research methods with a quantitative research approach. Survey research is intended to explain causal relationships and test hypotheses using the SEM-PLS model. SmartPls 4 v.4.0.9.4 is a multivariate statistical technique that compares exogenous with endogenous variables. The population of the study are members of Asttatindo, namely 24,000 construction workers who have had education and training and/or are members of Asttatindo. Sampling uses incidental sampling and purposive or judgment sampling, namely sampling based on the number of respondents who fill out the instrument and must match the proportion of the sample required in the SEM-SmartPls model. A minimum sample of 130 employee respondents is required. Incidental sampling can be achieved with 130 (between 130 -1000) respondents.Findings: Based on the results of hypothesis testing using Smart PLS it shows that: the first hypothesis (H1) is accepted because the t-count value is 8.483 < t table = 1.97 and the

The virtual aging brain: Causal inference supports interhemispheric dedifferentiation in healthy aging

The mechanisms of cognitive decline and its variability during healthy aging are not fully understood, but have been associated with reorganization of white matter tracts and functional brain networks. Here, we built a brain network modeling framework to infer the causal link between structural connectivity and functional architecture and the consequent cognitive decline in aging. By applying in-silico interhemispheric degradation of structural connectivity, we reproduced the process of functional dedifferentiation during aging. Thereby, we found the global modulation of brain dynamics by structural connectivity to increase with age, which was steeper in older adults with poor cognitive performance. We validated our causal hypothesis via a deep-learning Bayesian approach. Our results might be the first mechanistic demonstration of dedifferentiation during aging leading to cognitive decline.

Mechanisms and Prediction of Ischemic Stroke in Atrial Fibrillation Patients.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia in adults worldwide and represents an important burden for patients, physicians, and healthcare systems. AF is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity, due to the disease itself and its specific complications, such as the increased risk of stroke and thromboembolic events associated with AF. The temporal relation between AF episodes and stroke is nonetheless incompletely understood. The factors associated with an increased thromboembolic risk remain unclear, as well as the stroke risk stratification. Therefore, in this review, we intend to expose the mechanisms and physiopathology leading to intracardiac thrombus formation and stroke in AF patients, together with the evidence supporting the causal hypothesis. We also expose the risk factors associated with increased risk of stroke, the current different risk stratification tools as well as future prospects for improving this risk stratification.

Strategi Pengelolaan Kelas Dalam Menciptakan Suasana Belajar Untuk Meningkatkan Efektivitas Pembelajaran Sejarah Kelas X Melalui Penggunaan Aplikasi Quiziz di SMA Negeri 1 Pahunga Lodu

This study aims to find out how to increase the effectiveness of history learning through the use of the Quiziz application on a Quiziz learning media. This research is a class activity research that will be carried out on class X students at SMA Negeri 1 Pahunga Lodu with a sample of 34 students. This research was carried out when the learning process in the classroom was started or it could also be used as homework. Each meeting consists of 3 stages, namely, planning stage, implementation stage, and observation. This research uses quantitative methods, quantitative research is carried out by collecting information in a number frame, then it is prepared and analyzed to obtain data. In this study, using ex-post facto to design and explain the causal relationship. In this case, it will explore causal relationships and test hypotheses between variables that have been formulated previously. The variable is the use of the Quiziz application learning media in increasing the effectiveness of learning in the History subject of Class X students at SMA Negeri 1 Pahunga Lodu. Based on the results of the analysis on the variables using the quiziz application, the students of class X IPS 4 SMA Negeri 1 Pahunga Lodu can be seen that the score that has been obtained by students is 100, and the minimum score obtained by students is 50. The average score obtained is 50. Students have obtained the variable (X) 87,26472 with a range of 50. While the values for skewnes and kurtosis are -1.7047 and 2.812362, respectively, and a standard deviation of 12.46889 from the ideal score that may be achieved by students. While the results of the output on the Normality test, it can be seen that the significant value (Y) is 0.013 0.05, so H1 received is normally distributed. Thus it can be concluded that in learning activities using the internet-based Quiziz application learning model or method has a positive effect on student learning achievement.

Marielle Franco: a quantum victim of the Bolsonaro-19

Who ordered the feminicide of Rio de Janeiro councilwoman Marielle Franco on 14 March 2018? Our response draws on feminist language criminology in an era of misogyny; and it admits the hypothesis of a quantum causality (or imputation by remote symbiosis), which serves as explanatory model, for instance, of the intellectual authorship of crimes executed by radical members of Latin American political sects (Bolsonarism, Kirchnerism, and so on). Such connatural followers are so psychically entangled with their charismatic leader that they begin to act on the same frequency as him, even spontaneously eliminating eventual threats.

Mill and Acton on liberty, nationality and multinational states

AbstractMill's System of Logic (1843) indicates that the definition of ‘nationality’ he offered in Considerations on Representative Government (1861) is not a throwaway comment but a carefully considered causal hypothesis tailored to his politico‐ethological research programme. This matters because Lord Acton's critique of Mill's claim that free institutions are almost impossible in multinational states ignored the definition, thereby obscuring subsequent scholars' vision of the conceptual dimension of this famous dispute. Although Mill struggled in his politico‐ethological endeavour, he was sufficiently confident to judge that, if nationalities seek self‐determination through exclusive control of the state, liberal democratic institutions would be unlikely to emerge in multinational states, let alone survive and prosper. Since Acton's critique presupposed an undemocratic conception of free institutions and a far weaker notion of national self‐determination, it failed to contradict that judgement. Indeed, once their conceptual disagreements are clarified, Acton's empirical analysis can be seen to support it.

Developmental stuttering may be caused by insufficient processing of auditory feedback

Developmental stuttering has been scientifically researched for about a hundred years, but the cause is still unknown. Here, a comprehensive causal hypothesis is presented, from the factors contributing to a predisposition for stuttering to the mechanism underlying the core symptoms: A deficit in attention regulation and/or auditory processing abets a misallocation of attention, i.e., of perceptual and processing capacity, during speech; this results in poor processing of the auditory feedback of speech. Insufficiently processed auditory feedback causes error signals in the speech network which, by an error-induced interaction between cerebellum and basal ganglia, interrupts the speech flow against the speaker’s will. The allocation of attention during speech is hypothesized to be a variable state that forms the interface between the physiological pathomechanism of stuttering, on the one hand, and situational, cognitive, and emotional factors influencing stuttering severity, on the other hand; the interaction between both accounts for the situational variability of the disorder. The hypothesis implicates that increased attention to the auditory feedback of speech (listening to one’s voice) reduces stuttering – this opens, both, a way to test the hypothesis and to improve the therapy.

Integrated Science Learning Devices on Substances and Their Characteristics Material with Character Enrichment Through the Application of Problem-Based Learning

Purpose of the study: The purpose of this study is how to find out the process of developing learning devices using the PBL model with character enrichment in the substance material and its characteristics which were developed according to experts. Methodology: The research design used by researchers is a quantitative research type of quasi-experimental design using a pretest-posttest control group design. It is done to investigate causal hypotheses about causation that can be manipulated by comparing one or more experimental groups that are treated with one comparison group that is not treated. Main Findings: Based on the analysis of the data and the discussion above, it can be concluded that the students' ability in science subjects on the substance and its characteristics is in the good category. This shows that the application of problem-based learning models can improve students' thinking skills. This is reinforced by testing the hypothesis through the independent sample t-test that there is a significant difference between before being given treatment and after being given treatment Novelty/Originality of this study: Following the era of the industrial revolution 5.0, character-based learning must be developed. Therefore, this research produces science learning tools with problem-based learning in the material and its characteristics.

Ancient human colonization explains dung beetle species richness in the Mediterranean and Macaronesian islands

AbstractAimDifferent hypothesis have been proposed to explain differences in species richness among islands. However, few studies have attempted to compare the explanatory power of multiple hypotheses using a large data set. Here, we analyse how different types of predictors (energetic/climatic, environmental heterogeneity, island biogeography and anthropogenic) affect variation in dung beetle species richness on Mediterranean and Macaronesian islands.LocationMediterranean and Macaronesian islands.TaxonDung beetles.MethodsUsing a large data set of islands (n = 147), we extracted the species richness of dung beetles on each island using 362 bibliographic reference sources. We performed GLMs to analyse the relationship between the species richness of dung beetles and 11 explanatory variables (temperature, evapotranspiration, aridity, area, maximum elevation, connection to continent during LGM, geological origin, distance from continent, nearest continent, years since first human colonization and human density) representing four types of causal hypotheses. We also included as a covariate the number of published papers studying dung beetles as a surrogate of the survey/study effort carried out in each island.ResultsGLMs suggest that the years since first human colonization, the number of published papers and island area were the predictors with a higher explanatory capacity. The volcanic character of the islands and the distance from the mainland had some relevance in the case of Scarabaeinae and Geotrupinae, and maximum elevation appeared relevant in the species richness of Scarabaeinae and Aphodiidae. The anthropogenic and island biogeography hypotheses on the variation in species richness were the ones that have the strongest explanatory capacity, regardless of the inclusion of the surrogate of survey effort as a covariate in the models.Main conclusionsThe long history of human movements and agricultural activities has facilitated the colonization of dung beetles and provided trophic resources for their persistence, leading to increased species richness. Thus, the importance of anthropogenic factors in shaping the biodiversity patterns of island biogeography cannot be ignored. These human‐induced influences may play a fundamental role in altering the biogeographic patterns of islands, even overriding the importance of other variables. Consequently, our findings underline the profound impact of historical human actions on islands biodiversity.

Factors associated with COVID-19 infection in People Living with HIV. A case-control study nested in a Colombian cohort

Objective: People living with HIV (PLWH); can be especially vulnerable to the effects of SARS Co V 2 and COVID 19. In this study, we evaluate the factors associated with acquiring COVID 19 and the severity of the infection among PLWH.
 Materials and methods: Through a case-control study nested in a cohort, where cases were PLWH diagnosed with COVID 19; and controls were PLWH without the infection, 476 people were evaluated between May 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. A univariate analysis was performed with the variables considered candidates. Binary logistic regression models were conducted for the COVID 19 outcome, and among those diagnosed with the infection, regression models for the outcome of hospitalization vs. outpatient treatment.
 Results: Among 238 PLWH diagnosed with COVID 19, receiving integrase inhibitors p < 0.001 (CI 95% 0.27,0.72) or protease inhibitors p 0.034 (CI 95%0.42,0.97) within their antiretroviral regime, was associated with a lower probability of developing COVID 19. 196 (82,35%) of the 238 cases received outpatient treatment, and 42 (17,64%) required hospitalization. In this case, being older than 50 years p < 0.001 (CI 95% 1.8,9.64) and having obesity as a comorbidity p 0.017 (CI 95% 1.34,17.93) increased the possibility of requiring hospitalization, while receiving antiretroviral treatment or having received vaccination against influenza, decreased the likelihood of this outcome.
 Conclusions: There are still many questions regarding whether there is a differential risk of acquiring COVID 19 among PLWH. Antiretroviral treatment with inte­grase or protease inhibitors; was associated with a lower probability of developing the co-infection. Some factors related to comorbidities, such as older age and obesity, draw attention to possible risk factors for hospitalization in this population. Discussing the feasibility of new studies with proposed causal hypotheses that allow directing the research designs toward a more precise answer to these questions is essential