Causal Complexity Research Articles

Three-dimensional causal complementary complexity: a new measure for time series complexity analysis

Three-dimensional causal complementary complexity: a new measure for time series complexity analysis

Breaking new ground in family business research with neoconfigurational theorizing and analysis

PurposeBecause family businesses are highly complex enterprises, researchers need appropriate theoretical and methodological tools to study them. The neoconfigurational perspective and its accompanying method, qualitative comparative analysis, are particularly well suited to phenomena characterized by complex causality, but their uptake in family business research has been slow and fragmented. To remedy this, the authors highlight their unique ability to address research questions for which other approaches are not well suited and discuss how they might be applied to family business phenomena.Design/methodology/approachThe authors introduce the core tenets of the neoconfigurational perspective and how its set-theoretic epistemology differs from traditional approaches to theorizing and analysis. The authors then use a dataset of family firms to present a primer on conducting qualitative comparative analysis and interpreting the results.FindingsThe authors find that family firm resources can be combined in multiple ways to affect business survival, suggesting that resources are substitutable and complementary. The authors discuss how the unique features of the neoconfigurational approach, namely equifinality, conjunctural causation and causal asymmetry, can be fruitfully applied to break new ground in scholarly understanding of family businesses.Originality/valueThis article allows family business researchers to apply the neoconfigurational approach without first having to consult multiple and disparate sources often written for other disciplines. This article explicates how to leverage the theoretical and empirical advantages of the neoconfigurational approach in the context of family businesses, supporting a more widespread adoption of the neoconfigurational perspective in family business research.

Identifying Combinations of Altmetrics and Web of Science Usage That Linked to Early Citations of an Article Received: A Crisp-Set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA)

The relations of altmetrics/usage of an article and its citations have been studied extensively by using several variable-oriented approaches, e.g., correlations analysis, regression analysis, and so on. Variable-oriented approaches are symmetrically designed to estimate the “net effects” of independent variables on outcomes. In contrast to variable-oriented approaches, Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), a case-oriented approach based on set theory, models the concept of conjunctural causation, rather than a single net effect. QCA assumes asymmetry, equifinality, and causal complexity. In this study, based on four data sets from Scientific Reports, a Crisp-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (csQCA) was employed to identify combinations of altmetrics and Web of Science usage (WOSusage) that linked to early citations an article received. Our results revealed the existence of diverse combinations of altmetrics and WOSusage that linked to early citations. The four combinations with the highest raw coverage for each data set indicated that high Mendeley readers together with high WOSusage played a key role in early citations an article received. The other altmetrics, including Twitter, Facebook, blogs, and news, played roles in linking to early citations an article received but varied in different combinations for each data set.

Futures, Events and excessive Learnings: review of Forsberg and Patomäki, Debating the war in Ukraine

ABSTRACT Futures past, historically open when they were our present, are often recast as pre-determined after dramatic events. The war in Ukraine displays this pattern, and makes the book by Forsberg and Patomäki so welcome. It allows nuanced discussions of counterfactuals and causal complexes when the political climate favors reductionist, deterministic interpretations of who and what caused the war and what this implies for future possibilities. The book’s dialogue format facilitates balanced analysis and its structure aroundtime phases adds complexity. Prevailing excessive learnings produce powerful policy guidance on false premises. However, the book underestimates the political forces involved in the writing of history treating public knowledge as an intellectual investigation writ large. Excessive mislearnings from the past follow not primarily from cognitive limitations distributed evenly – they are shaped by political struggles and a dominant folk conception of the nature of international relations. Enriching the analysis with a political sociology of knowledge.

Revisiting and attributing the global controls over terrestrial ecosystem functions of climate and plant traits at FLUXNET sites via causal graphical models

Abstract. Using statistical methods that do not directly represent the causality between variables to attribute climate and plant traits as controlling ecosystem functions may lead to biased perceptions. We revisited this issue using a causal graphical model, the Bayesian network (BN), capable of quantifying causality by conditional probability tables. Based on expert knowledge and climate, vegetation, and ecosystem function data from the FLUXNET flux stations, we constructed a BN representing the causal relationship of climate–plant-trait–ecosystem functions. Based on the sensitivity analysis function of the BN, we attributed the control of climate and plant traits over ecosystem functions and compared the results with those based on random forests and correlation analysis. The main conclusions of this study include the following: BN can be used for the quantification of causal relationships between complex ecosystems in response to climate change and enables the analysis of indirect effects among variables. The causality reflected in the BN is as good as the expert knowledge of the causal links. Compared to BN, the feature importance difference between “mean vapor pressure deficit and cumulative soil water index” and “maximum leaf area index and maximum vegetation height” reported by random forests is higher and can be overestimated. With the causality relation between correlated variables constructed, a BN-based sensitivity analysis can reduce the uncertainty in quantifying the importance of correlated variables. The understanding of the mechanism of indirect effects of climate variables on ecosystem functions through plant traits can be deepened by the chain casuality quantification in BNs.

Causal Order Complex and Magnitude Homotopy Type of Metric Spaces

Abstract In this paper, we construct a pointed CW complex called the magnitude homotopy type for a given metric space $X$ and a real parameter $\ell \geq 0$. This space is roughly consisting of all paths of length $\ell $ and has the reduced homology group that is isomorphic to the magnitude homology group of $X$. To construct the magnitude homotopy type, we consider the poset structure on the spacetime $X\times \mathbb{R}$ defined by causal (time- or light-like) relations. The magnitude homotopy type is defined as the quotient of the order complex of an intervals on $X\times \mathbb{R}$ by a certain subcomplex. The magnitude homotopy type gives a covariant functor from the category of metric spaces with $1$-Lipschitz maps to the category of pointed topological spaces. The magnitude homotopy type also has a “path integral” like expression for certain metric spaces. By applying discrete Morse theory to the magnitude homotopy type, we obtain a new proof of the Mayer–Vietoris-type theorem and several new results including the invariance of the magnitude under sycamore twist of finite metric spaces.

Nachträglichkeit and psychoanalytic creativity

ABSTRACT This article sheds light on the concept of Nachträglichkeit as a basic psychoanalytic concept that not only contributes to the explanation of the dynamic evolution of traumatization but also may serve as a basic concept in the understanding of the creativity inherent in the transformative process towards curative psychic change. We will argue 1) that Freud’s concept of Nachträglichkeit can be seen in a broader perspective than as a way to understanding only the mechanism of the trauma. This will be done through a presentation of some fundamental and more recent viewpoints and interpretations of the concept; 2) that the concept of Nachträglichkeit as a complex dynamic causality of proactive and retroactive processes is a basic concept in the understanding of psychoanalytic practice as such; 3) that the dynamics of the curative effects of the psychoanalytic process may rely on the analyst’s ability to include conscious and unconscious creativity in the work with the repetitive aspects of Nachträglichkeit.

Customer Satisfaction Mediates the Influence of Service Quality on Customer Loyalty in Islamic Banks

Providing quality services is one strategy to achieve business success in the service sector, especially regarding customer satisfaction and loyalty. This study aims to understand the empirical model and analyze the impact of service quality on customer loyalty, mediated by customer satisfaction. To achieve this, an explanatory research design was used, and a sample of 150 customers from the Palembang branch of Islamic Banks was selected using a simple random sampling technique. A questionnaire was used as the research instrument, and its validity and reliability were tested using CFA analysis. A complex causality model was then used, which was pushed through the PLS-SEM technique. The results revealed that service quality has a significant direct effect on customer loyalty, with a substantial immediate impact on customer satisfaction. Additionally, customer satisfaction partially mediates the effects of service quality on customer loyalty. These findings have significant implications for businesses in the service sector, indicating that providing quality services is a critical strategy for achieving success, particularly in customer satisfaction and loyalty. Based on these results, it is suggested that businesses focus on improving the quality of their services by regularly monitoring and assessing the quality of services offered to customers and investing in employee training to enhance the quality of their services.

The Influence of Service Quality on Customer Loyalty Is Mediated by Customer Satisfaction in Islamic Bank

Providing quality service is one of the strategies to achieve business success in the service sector, especially in getting customer satisfaction and loyalty. This study focuses on knowing the empirical model and analyzing the effect of service quality on customer loyalty mediated by customer satisfaction. The type of research used in this research is explanatory research. The sample consisted of 150 customers from the Palembang branch of Islamic Banks selected by a simple random sampling technique. The research instrument is in the form of a questionnaire that has been tested for the level of validity and reliability using CFA analysis. This study uses a complex causality model tested with the PLS-SEM technique. The study’s results resulted in a fit structural model which showed that service quality had a significant direct effect on customer loyalty. Service quality has a substantial immediate impact on customer satisfaction. Furthermore, information obtained shows that customer satisfaction partially mediates the impact of service quality on customer loyalty.

An extension of the theory of technology dominance: Capturing the underlying causal complexity

The Theory of Technology Dominance (TTD) provides a theoretical foundation for understanding how intelligent systems impact human decision-making. The theory has three phases with propositions related to (1) the foundations of reliance, (2) short-term effects on novice versus expert decision-making, and (3) long-term epistemological effects related to individual deskilling and profession-wide stagnation. In this theory paper, we propose an extension of TTD, that we refer to as TTD2, primarily to increase our theoretical understanding of how, why, and when the short-term and long-term effects on decision-making occur and why advances in technology design have exacerbated some weaknesses and eroded some benefits. Recently, researchers have called for reconsideration of how we design intelligent systems to mitigate the detrimental effects of technology; in TTD2 we provide a theory-based understanding for capturing the complexity underlying the occurrence of the effects.

Net and configurational effects of determinants on cloud computing adoption by SMEs under cloud promotion policy using PLS-SEM and fsQCA

A deeper understanding of cloud computing is required to accelerate its adoption and leverage its cost, performance, reliability, and security. However, information about the combined effect of factors influencing cloud computing adoption using traditional statistical methods is limited. Based on a literature review of firms’ adoption of cloud computing, we identified 12 determinants to explore how antecedent factors influence cloud computing adoption by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We used symmetric and asymmetric techniques to analyze data from 203 Chinese SMEs. The partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) assessed the net impact of each antecedent, and the fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) provided a supplementary analysis by highlighting the configurations of the causal conditions associated with cloud computing adoption. The PLS-SEM results show that security concerns, top management support, IT competence, competitive pressure, trading partner pressure, and provider support influence SMEs’ decisions to adopt cloud computing. Interestingly, fsQCA provides a deeper understanding of the complex causality that PLS-SEM does not capture. That is, fsQCA revealed seven configurations resulting in high-level cloud computing adoption and eight causal paths leading to the negation of cloud computing adoption. These findings indicate that several conditions with no significant influence in PLS-SEM were adequate when combined with other conditions in the configurations. The results of the complementary analysis provide theoretical and practical insights.

Entrepreneurial intention in adolescents: The impact of psychological capital

Entrepreneurial intention (EI) of adolescents provides an early window on the entrepreneurial process when young people are forming their occupational identity. Using a neo-configurational perspective, we illuminate the complex causality of EI in a large sample of adolescents and reveal individual differences based on combinations of their psychological capital (PsyCap), gender, academic performance, parent entrepreneurs, and urban environment that culminate in the intention to become an entrepreneur. The empirical evidence provided here reveals synergy, substitution, and suppression effects among the causal conditions indicating multiple pathways to explain both high EI and low EI (indicative of employment intention) which are not the simple inverse of each other. We conduct both deductive hypothesis testing and abductive theory development based on the inductive results, such that this paper contributes to the literature on occupational choices made by adolescents, with implications for educational policy and further research.

How Do Clusters Drive Firm Performance in the Regional Innovation System? A Causal Complexity Analysis in Chinese Strategic Emerging Industries

From a configurational perspective, this study aims to explain how clusters drive firm performance in the regional innovation system by considering the relationship between cluster and firm performance as causal complexity. Using an original dataset comprising 292 Chinese firms in strategic emerging industries (SEIs), this study employs a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to investigate the conjunction effects of interorganizational dependence, network embeddedness, and ambidextrous innovation on cluster firms’ performance. The results showed that the fsQCA method uncovers causal combinations of these cluster factors that lead to high performance. These configurations imply two alternative pathways to enhance performance, where exploitative innovation is identified as the core causal condition.

Systems Thinking, Mapping and Change in Food and Agriculture

Societal actors across scales and geographies increasingly demand visual applications of systems thinking – the process of understanding and changing the reality of a system by considering its whole set of interdependencies – to address complex problems affecting food and agriculture. Yet, despite the wide offer of systems mapping tools, there is still little guidance for managers, policy-makers, civil society and changemakers in food and agriculture on how to choose, combine and use these tools on the basis of a sufficiently deep understanding of socio-ecological systems. Unfortunately, actors seeking to address complex problems with inadequate understandings of systems often have limited influence on the socio-ecological systems they inhabit, and sometimes even generate unintended negative consequences. Hence, we first review, discuss and exemplify seven key features of systems that should be – but rarely have been – incorporated in strategic decisions in the agri-food sector: interdependency, level-multiplicity, dynamism, path dependency, self-organization, non-linearity and complex causality. Second, on the basis of these features, we propose a collective process to systems mapping that grounds on the notion that the configuration of problems (i.e., how multiple issues entangle with each other) and the configuration of actors (i.e., how multiple actors relate to each other and share resources) represent two sides of the same coin. Third, we provide implications for societal actors - including decision-makers, trainers and facilitators - using systems mapping to trigger or accelerate systems change in five purposive ways: targeting multiple goals; generating ripple effects; mitigating unintended consequences; tackling systemic constraints, and collaborating with unconventional partners.

Configurations of Market-Oriented Tourism Ecological Compensation: A csQCA Approach

ABSTRACT This paper explores the antecedent configurations leading to high or non-high marketization of tourism eco-compensation mechanisms. A configurational model was established to precisely understand the causal complex mechanism of institutional factors that drive tourism ecological compensation marketization. The clear set of qualitative comparative analysis (csQCA) with multivariate interactions was applied. Five configurations were identified for the high marketization level and two for the non-high marketization level. The results confirmed that determining natural resource property rights is the premise of the marketized mechanism. It is only on this basis that the value of eco-products can be achieved and that eco-incentives play an effective role. Moreover, government regulation is the fundamental guarantee in the multi-game process. This configurational-based model reveals the causal asymmetry mechanism between a high marketization level and two configurations for a non-high marketization level. This paper suggests that a favorable combination of the government’s role as a supporter and ecological incentives is the main driving force to enhance the marketability of tourism eco-compensation mechanisms.

Complex actions and causality violations: applications to Lorentzian quantum cosmology

For the construction of the Lorentzian path integral for gravity one faces two main questions: firstly, what configurations to include, in particular whether to allow Lorentzian metrics that violate causality conditions. And secondly, how to evaluate a highly oscillatory path integral over unbounded domains. Relying on Picard–Lefschetz theory to address the second question for discrete Regge gravity, we will illustrate that it can also answer the first question. To this end we will define the Regge action for complexified variables and study its analytical continuation. Although there have been previously two different versions defined for the Lorentzian Regge action, we will show that the complex action is unique. More precisely, starting from the different definitions for the action one arrives at equivalent analytical extensions. The difference between the two Lorentzian versions is only realized along branch cuts which arise for a certain class of causality violating configurations. As an application we discuss the path integral describing a finite evolution step of the discretized de Sitter Universe. We will in particular consider an evolution from vanishing to finite scale factor, for which the path integral defines the no-boundary wave function.

A Review of Social–Ecological System Research and Geographical Applications

This paper reviews the exploration and application of social–ecological systems research perspectives to sustainable development issues such as the areas of coupled human–earth relations, resource management, geographical landscape patterns, system dynamics, and the relationship between ecosystem services and human well-being, and summarizes practical approaches and applied techniques for solving social–ecological system problems in order to understand changes and relationships in complex systems better. The article summarizes the theoretical research on social–ecological systems by domestic and international scholars into six frameworks: system resilience, system cascade, nature’s contribution to humans based on ecosystem services, public resource system management, system behavior scenario analysis, and system regime shift. Innovative research and practice oriented to complexity, coupling, and nonlinearity have emerged. However, there are differences between scientific research and applied practice, including their theoretical and methodological orientations. We should be oriented to social–ecological system problems to achieve a transformation from components to relationships, from outcomes to processes, from single to open systems, from general interventions to context sensitivity, and from linear to complex causality to meet what is required from sustainability science and geography.

How does land consolidation drive rural industrial development? Qualitative and quantitative analysis of 32 land consolidation cases in China

As rural revitalization becomes an increasingly central goal in countries worldwide, land consolidation has emerged as an important tool for realizing rural prosperity through facilitating industrial development. However, it is still not clear how and to what extent land consolidation contributes to rural industrial development. This study, therefore, investigates the influencing mechanism of factors related to land consolidation on rural industrial development. Following the element-structure-function framework, factors related to land consolidation are classified as follows: technical and public elements (e.g., public involvement), financing and organizational structures, production, living, and ecological functions. Cross-case studies are conducted using two emerging methods of causal complexity analysis, i.e., qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and necessary conditions analysis (NCA). First, the results of QCA reveal three configurations of factors explaining rural industrial development, including function-driven configuration, function-element-driven configuration, and function-structure-driven configuration. Second, the results of NCA indicate the nuanced roles played by different factors at various levels of industrial development. Specifically, at the middle level of rural industrial development (50% quantile), production function becomes the necessary condition; at the upper-middle level of rural industrial development (between 50% and 80% quantile), technical element, financing structure, organizational structure, and living function become the necessary conditions for rural industrial development; public element becomes a necessary condition to achieve a high level of industrial development (80% quantile). This study shows how different configurations of factors related to land consolidation influence rural industrial development and the diversified roles that these factors play. The findings enable an extension to the influencing mechanism of land consolidation on rural revitalization and shed new light on formulating and aligning targeted land consolidation policies (e.g., endogenous incentives, crowdsourcing platform, and ecological development) to achieve superior industrial development in different rural areas.

Risk assessment of infectious disease epidemic based on fuzzy Bayesian network.

The prevention and control of infectious disease epidemic (IDE) is an important task for every country and region. Risk assessment is significant for the prevention and control of IDE. Fuzzy Bayesian networks (FBN) can capture complex causality and uncertainty. The study developed a novel FBN model, integrating grounded theory, interpretive structural model, and expert weight determination algorithm for the risk assessment of IDE. The algorithm is proposed by the authors for expert weighting in fuzzy environment. The proposed FBN model comprehensively takes into account the risk factors and the interaction among them, and quantifies the uncertainty of IDE risk assessment, so as to make the assessment results more reliable. Taking the epidemic situation of COVID-19 in Wuhan as a case, the application of the proposed model is illustrated. And sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the important risk factors of IDE. Moreover, the effectiveness of the model is checked by the three-criterion-based quantitative validation method including variation connection, consistent effect, and cumulative limitation. Results show that the probability of the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan is as high as 82.26%, which is well-matched with the actual situation. "Information transfer mechanism," "coordination and cooperation among various personnel," "population flow," and "ability of quarantine" are key risk factors. The constructed model meets the above three criteria. The application potential and effectiveness of the developed FBN model are demonstrated. The study provides decision support for preventing and controlling IDE.

Trading Risk Spillover Mechanism of Rare Earth in China: New Perspective Based on Time-Varying Connectedness Approach

Our research contributes a new point of view on China’s rare earth dynamic risk spillover measurement; this was performed by combining complex network and multivariate nonlinear Granger causality to construct the time-varying connectedness complex network and analyze the formation mechanism using the impulse response. First, our empirical research found that for the dynamic characteristics of China’s rare earth market, due to instability, uncertainty, and geopolitical decisions, disruption can be captured well by the TVP-VAR-SV model. Second, except for praseodymium, oxides are all risk takers and are more affected by the impact of other assets, which means that the composite index and catalysts are main sources of risk spillovers in China’s rare earth trading complex network system. Third, from the perspective of macroeconomic variables, there are significant multivariate nonlinear impacts on the total connectedness index of China’s rare earth market, and they exhibit asymmetric shock characteristics. These findings indicate that the overall linkage of the risk contagion in China’s rare earth trading market is strong. Strengthening the interconnections among the rare earth assets is of important practical significance. Empirical results also provide policy recommendations for establishing trading risk protection measures under macro-prudential supervision. Especially for investors and regulators, rare earth oxides are important assets for risk mitigation. When rare earth systemic trading risk occur, the allocation of oxide rare earth assets can hedge part of the trading risk.